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3) She doesn't believe she can flip 70 Tories who are against (or, being generous, 50-60 of them and gain a pitiful handful of Labour rebels, maybe) and doesn't think the deal will pass, at the very least on the first go. But she wants parliament to tell her it won't do it officially, not have the dark arts of the parliamentary conservative party prevent it even getting to parliament in the first place.grabcocque said:
Nobody in particular.Anazina said:
The important point is that he's the 53rd declared Tory against the deal, excluding all those who resigned last week. Suggests that May's initial deficit in her party for the deal is a bad as -70.
There's no way in god's clean earth she seriously believes she can flip 70 Tories just using the dark arts of the whip's office, so I can see two possibilities
1) The meaningful vote won't happen
2) May has something up her sleeve
Parliament is sovereign. If they don't want this deal they can tell the PM that properly.0 -
Hot on the heels of trying to secure a trade deal with Oklahoma, David davis comes out with another cracker ...
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/10645049699178577930 -
Mickey Fab's plan looks politically speaking very sensible to me. The ERG needs to do a whipping operation to ensure their members don't bang out their letter prematurely.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.0 -
I don't think we can conclude that. A large majority of the Stand Up 4 Brexit brigade aren't calling (yet) for May's departure. Best guess is that amongst sane remainers and brexiteers alike, the Fabricant line is the default position.Icarus said:If ERG cannot muster 48 MPs to sign no confidence letters, looks as if number actually voting against the deal and their leader will be into single figures -say 10 (or perhaps more likely 20 abstentions). Add four or five abstentions from the remainers -Grieve, Greening, etc. then support for the deal will be at about 304 including perhaps 4 of the various Independents.
SNP, Lib Dems Plaid and Greens number 52 so will need 243 out of current 257 Labour MPs to vote against for the deal to fail. Given the hostility of some to whatever Corbyn wants then to only lose 14 to abstentions (or 7 to voting for the deal) will be some ask.
I have ignored the DUP as their hostility to the deal should just about balance their hatred of Labour, leading them to abstain.
Let the Meaningful Vote fail in the commons first, and *then* May can be forced out (if she doesn't just fall on her sword at that point, which I think she will).0 -
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.0 -
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.TheWhiteRabbit said:If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
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Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....TGOHF said:
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.Pulpstar said:
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.MarqueeMark said:
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.MarqueeMark said:
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....Casino_Royale said:
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.Sean_Fear said:
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.0 -
You cannot separate May from the Deal, you just can't. Her premiership is the deal, and the deal is her premiership. We have both, or neither.kle4 said:
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.TheWhiteRabbit said:If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
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No doubt they'll surprise us, but how could it not? It's bizarre to see such fundamental disagreement and such vicious disagreement as well, from supposed colleagues.GIN1138 said:
A formal split in Con would be interesting... And I'd think is very likely?
Winning GEs does not matter right now. Brexit is more important.Casino_Royale said:
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.0 -
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.0 -
I just do not buy that, if her deal were to pass, that she will go on and on and on, so I think the fear is needless. But even if Tories fear her leading them into the next GE (one is probably coming soon), tough, if they back the deal then suck it up.grabcocque said:
You cannot separate May from the Deal, you just can't. Her premiership is the deal, and the deal is her premiership. We have both, or neither.kle4 said:
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.TheWhiteRabbit said:If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
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Yes, Parliament has to own the consequences of either voting for, or against, the Deal.kle4 said:
3) She doesn't believe she can flip 70 Tories who are against (or, being generous, 50-60 of them and gain a pitiful handful of Labour rebels, maybe) and doesn't think the deal will pass, at the very least on the first go. But she wants parliament to tell her it won't do it officially, not have the dark arts of the parliamentary conservative party prevent it even getting to parliament in the first place.grabcocque said:
Nobody in particular.Anazina said:
The important point is that he's the 53rd declared Tory against the deal, excluding all those who resigned last week. Suggests that May's initial deficit in her party for the deal is a bad as -70.
There's no way in god's clean earth she seriously believes she can flip 70 Tories just using the dark arts of the whip's office, so I can see two possibilities
1) The meaningful vote won't happen
2) May has something up her sleeve
Parliament is sovereign. If they don't want this deal they can tell the PM that properly.0 -
No government ever blames its predecessors for the mess it makes.....TGOHF said:
Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....TGOHF said:
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.Pulpstar said:
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.MarqueeMark said:
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.MarqueeMark said:
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....Casino_Royale said:
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.Sean_Fear said:
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.0 -
We should revoke Article 50.Sean_F said:
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
Then invoke it again.
Call the first Brexit a mulligan.0 -
All governments blame their predecessors for the messes they are in, for year and years. Corbyn would have an awful lot to deal with, and be constrained as a result I am sure, but that's a problem parties would always prefer to have than being in opposition, and he'll have plenty to blame on his predecessor.TGOHF said:
Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....TGOHF said:
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.MarqueeMark said:
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.Pulpstar said:
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.MarqueeMark said:
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.Pulpstar said:
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.MarqueeMark said:
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....Casino_Royale said:
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.Sean_Fear said:
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.0 -
Twice zero is still zero.Scott_P said:0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
Because it would be the end of the party and they do seem to have a curious attachment to it.williamglenn said:
Why would the Tories not preempt 4 and offer the referendum immediately?TOPPING said:The following sequence of events I would put at >60%:
1) deal voted down
2) vonc intra Tory
3) Lab decides to offer 2nd referendum in GE manifesto
4) pressure for GE overwhelming
5) GE, Lab victory0 -
I'm so glad no one is peddling simple solutions to this anymore, we've come so far in two years.SouthamObserver said:Hot on the heels of trying to secure a trade deal with Oklahoma, David davis comes out with another cracker ...
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/10645049699178577930 -
I amazed anyone feels in kind of moral authority to express any certainty whatosever about what's going to happen.David_Evershed said:
Twice zero is still zero.Scott_P said:
NOBODY HAS ANY IDEA.0 -
Gove is actually the best of a bad bunch. Not because he backed Leave and "owns it" or whatever, but because he has shown in government whichever brief he gets switched to, he actually reads up on the subject, takes sounding etc and putting aside the blob hatred of him, the legal and environment people seem to think he does a decent job and is fairly pragmatic about things.Casino_Royale said:
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.
However, the man could start an argument in an empty room. Not the sort of person who could win the country over, especially so many Remainer blame him and Boris for Brexit.0 -
Correct. We can't know what will happengrabcocque said:
I amazed anyone feels in kind of moral authority to express any certainty whatosever about what's going to happen.David_Evershed said:
Twice zero is still zero.Scott_P said:
NOBODY HAS ANY IDEA.0 -
I've got another narrative you could give:Richard_Tyndall said:
Cancelling a democratic decision before it has even been enacted on the basis of an incompetent negotiation run by those who didn't even support the decision is not democracy.JosiasJessop said:
They'll only believe that 'democracy doesn't work' if enough idiots tell them that.Richard_Tyndall said:
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
In reality. it would be democratic.
1) We had a vote.
2) The result was close.
3) A lot of time and effort has been spent getting a deal.
4) The deal has been rejected by the elected parliament.
In that scenario, it would be democratic to throw it back to the people in another referendum (though much would depend on the options given).
"How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying? "
Project Fear.
That is the accurate narrative that will be pushed by many including myself.
"I so wanted Brexit, I placed myself with others with totally incompatible views (including those nasty, bigoted views), in order to get it. Once I got a result, I then went around blaming everyone else for the fact that those views cannot be matched.
It's my fault Brexit cannot be delivered.
I fucked up. Sorry."0 -
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
0 -
There is no prize. More defence of wounded pride. The deal is a hell of a price just to tick a boxSean_F said:
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.0
This discussion has been closed.