Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.
The WTO acknowledges that there are differences between sea and land borders. The issue would boil down to is the Chunnel a sea or land border. I would imagine that we would argue we need to check at the Chunnel because of the threat of a terrorist incident within it.
There are provisions for extenuating (ie security) circumstances which might render a border unnecessary. But we have discussed this a zillion times. And for the zillion and first time: TMay knows (because she is actually in power and not pushing from the back like the ERG-ers) that she simply cannot embark upon a course of action, one of the paths of which might lead to a hard border.
It is the reason that NI leads on just about every update, statement, commentary, or analysis of why we are in the state we are.
Looking forward to Noel Edmonds appearing on I'm a Celebrity .... I'm sure the PB community will rise above the stale 'puns' that the papers and social media will inevitably sink to.
I see the evening standard opinion today is mentioning pineapple on pizza too...
The final house tally looks highly highly likely to be 202 GOP - 233 Democrat giving a majority of 31 for the blues. One of the GOP who will have a seat is Mia Love, who was castigated by Trump for losing.
May and her supporters are so inept in office that they helping to keep Corbyn’s Labour within touching distance of power. When are people going to realise that ditching May and replacing her with someone who has relevant policies, political charisma and can properly articulate an argument without being restricted to a sounbite or a speech written by someone else is the only way to see off Corbyn.
All this negative politics about the alternative being Corbyn didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next one.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.
The WTO acknowledges that there are differences between sea and land borders. The issue would boil down to is the Chunnel a sea or land border. I would imagine that we would argue we need to check at the Chunnel because of the threat of a terrorist incident within it.
There are provisions for extenuating (ie security) circumstances which might render a border unnecessary. But we have discussed this a zillion times. And for the zillion and first time: TMay knows (because she is actually in power and not pushing from the back like the ERG-ers) that she simply cannot embark upon a course of action, one of the paths of which might lead to a hard border.
It is the reason that NI leads on just about every update, statement, commentary, or analysis of why we are in the state we are.
This is a different argument to which I responded.
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.
You might well be right.
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.
Apart rom making everyone feel good for a little while is there any evidence that hosting an event like the Olympics actually benefits a country? Serious question rather than point scoring. Does the additional people doing sports, new infrastructure and short term additional GDP outweigh the costs? I am seeing no sign of it looking at other Olympic cities.
Agree and he was hell bent on a white elephant regardless. No problem to him as a multi - millionaire spending public money that could have been better used. Bozo is just another example that these people are happy to squander any amount on their pet projects purely to feed their over inflated ego's.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon. It's a much better place to be than the confused depths of May loyalism. For one thing, you don't have to silence that inner voice that keeps asking why, if this was always the best deal on offer, May spent the year running down the clock pretending she was going to get something else before capitulating. Because there are only two answers, and neither is particularly flattering: either she genuinely believed she'd get something better, in which case she's just as stupid as the ERG, or it was a deliberate tactic to get her deal through by forcing it to be a last minute take-it-or-leave-it offer, in which case she- not the ERG- is responsible for the high-stakes game of chicken we're in. And you don't have to forgive her for missteps- like the 2017 election- that led to her being unable to get her deal through parliament.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.
We are where we are. We have to make the logical decision based on what information we have now.
On that basis. May's deal IS currently the best option.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
So the problem with the last referendum was that it wasn't really clear what would happen about all kinds of important aspects if you chose it, and that vacuum was filled by dreamers and bullshitters (and to be fair to the leave side, by FUD). It's hard to see anyone making that mistake again.
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon. It's a much better place to be than the confused depths of May loyalism. For one thing, you don't have to silence that inner voice that keeps asking why, if this was always the best deal on offer, May spent the year running down the clock pretending she was going to get something else before capitulating. Because there are only two answers, and neither is particularly flattering: either she genuinely believed she'd get something better, in which case she's just as stupid as the ERG, or it was a deliberate tactic to get her deal through by forcing it to be a last minute take-it-or-leave-it offer, in which case she- not the ERG- is responsible for the high-stakes game of chicken we're in. And you don't have to forgive her for missteps- like the 2017 election- that led to her being unable to get her deal through parliament.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.
We are where we are. We have to make the logical decision based on what information we have now.
On that basis. May's deal IS currently the best option.
What I'm saying is that you can embrace support of May's deal without supporting May.
One bit of good Brexit news today: no-one is talking about Boris's latest yawnfest in the Telegraph. Finally the law of diminishing returns seems to be kicking in, and I'm sure he'll hate the lack of attention.
And the Laurel and Hardy antics of the Rees Mogg Comedy Squad are as endearing as ever. Clearly no great strategy to go over the top as they did last week, and after making threats for so long, hard to see how they'll get taken as seriously again. They have the votes to torpedo the deal in the Meaningful Vote, and that's about it.
One bit of good Brexit news today: no-one is talking about Boris's latest yawnfest in the Telegraph. Finally the law of diminishing returns seems to be kicking in, and I'm sure he'll hate the lack of attention.
And the Laurel and Hardy antics of the Rees Mogg Comedy Squad are as endearing as ever. Clearly no great strategy to go over the top as they did last week, and after making threats for so long, hard to see how they'll get taken as seriously again. They have the votes to torpedo the deal in the Meaningful Vote, and that's about it.
BoZo's water cannon "sold for scrap" is a fitting metaphor for his career since picking the wrong side in the referendum
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
Mr. Mark, Penny Mordaunt should succeed May. This would clearly be in the national interest.
On Floersch: should've been more precise, she said she was 'fine' but also 'going into surgery', so it sounds like she's injured but not in a life-changing/permanent way. Hope so, anyway. I avoided watching the video until I read that. It's a shade 1950s.
Btw, she spells it with an e in her twitter handle so I think you're safe with it.
But if you want to be Flörschy with the umlaut (and you're on a PC) use the Alt code. You hold the Alt button and type 0246 on the right hand numeric keypad. Or Alt 0214 for a big Ö
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
So the problem with the last referendum was that it wasn't really clear what would happen about all kinds of important aspects if you chose it, and that vacuum was filled by dreamers and bullshitters (and to be fair to the leave side, by FUD). It's hard to see anyone making that mistake again.
Edmund fpt about elites. It may be that the elites write the manifestos but it is the proles that vote on them.
UKIP's 4m voters managed to make Dave include a promise in his manifesto so sometimes the little guy (albeit the little ex-commodity trading wearer of a too new dodgy velvet-collared covert coat guy) gets his way.
Specfically, the EU has said "no changes to the withdrawal agreement *for the UK*"
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.
It really does indicate what a brutal one-sided farce this soi-disant "negotiation" truly represents.
Tory MPs allowed May to spend an entire year engaged in a slow-motion campaign of deception and capitulation. Quite why they allowed her to do this is anyone's guess.
But having been caught out, the jig is up. Parliament has one chance to put this right, and that means May and her deviously terrible little scheme to run down the clock and bounce the UK into accepting Olly Robbins's dismal anti-democratic outrage BRINO has to die, and her leadership with it.
Parliament has one chance to put a stop to May's sordid little schemes, and it looks like a chance it's going to take with relish.
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.
You might well be right.
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.
Apart rom making everyone feel good for a little while is there any evidence that hosting an event like the Olympics actually benefits a country? Serious question rather than point scoring. Does the additional people doing sports, new infrastructure and short term additional GDP outweigh the costs? I am seeing no sign of it looking at other Olympic cities.
Agree and he was hell bent on a white elephant regardless. No problem to him as a multi - millionaire spending public money that could have been better used. Bozo is just another example that these people are happy to squander any amount on their pet projects purely to feed their over inflated ego's.
I think I'm generally in agreement as well. The Olympics are good for the elite; less so for those who have to pay for it.
Then again, I think - comparatively - London 2012 was successful. It cost less than Beijing, with fewer human rights abuses, and it did help some regeneration. And it wasn't the clusterf*ck that Brazil was.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
You realise, of course, that by keeping the focus on themselves and the Gang of Five within cabinet, the news cycle focuses entirely on the opposition to May's deal.
Whether it's intentional or not, the ERG are depriving May's deal of the oxygen of publicity it needs for people to start thinking of it as anything other than terrible and DOA.
Whether intentional or not, their shenanigans ensure the deal will not be able to escape from the epistemologically nebulous space of not yet dead.
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
I see Cnutism remains the dominant political movement of the times. Uniting many Tories and the opposition parties, Right and Left agreeing to ignore all reality. Vote Cnutism! The nation is safe in the hands of these Cnuts.
Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
Well there we go - no deal it is.
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics
Spoken like a true fanatic
It is No Dealers who are fanatics trying to impose a No Deal Brexit barely a third of the country supports at huge economic cost and with the risk of Scotland voting for independence and a hard border in Ireland. As a result Remainers and many soft Brexiteers will fight them every step of the way
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?
They'll only believe that 'democracy doesn't work' if enough idiots tell them that.
In reality. it would be democratic.
1) We had a vote. 2) The result was close. 3) A lot of time and effort has been spent getting a deal. 4) The deal has been rejected by the elected parliament.
In that scenario, it would be democratic to throw it back to the people in another referendum (though much would depend on the options given).
"How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying? "
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If they don't realise that they are perhaps going to be in for a big shock, though it is not certain yet. I wonder if they will look back more fondly on this Brexit deal if we remain, crap though it is.
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
C'mon, it's been explained zillions of times. No deal (which is largely unrelated to whether we transition to WTO terms) means what it says. There would be no legal framework for flying aeroplanes, or selling agricultural products to the EU, or selling medicines to the EU, or unwinding trillions of euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
These problems could have been solved by preparing for them. So basically no deal is a disaster because they were negligent. Or maybe they did prepare for it and aren't telling us (I refuse to believe even May could be that stupid)
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
Serious preparations for No Deal would have involved telling a lot of manufacturing businesses to mothball their UK operations and relocate to other countries.
Yes no countries that aren't in the EU have any manufacturing.
Who has ever heard of anything made in China for example?
China is not a fully integrated member of the single market or customs union so does not have a manufacturing sector set up as if it is.
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
I think you are confused.
What do you think I'm confused about?
That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
And mine.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.
Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?
They've already started killing people. Realistically there's no practical option that avoids a betrayal narrative from Leave enthusiasts, and inevitably that's going to result in more terrorism.
I'm not saying appeasement *never* works, but I don't see how it works here.
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
I think you are confused.
What do you think I'm confused about?
That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.
May and her supporters are so inept in office that they helping to keep Corbyn’s Labour within touching distance of power. When are people going to realise that ditching May and replacing her with someone who has relevant policies, political charisma and can properly articulate an argument without being restricted to a sounbite or a speech written by someone else is the only way to see off Corbyn.
All this negative politics about the alternative being Corbyn didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next one.
You're quite correct, a Mogg premiership, supported by Johnson and Davis, would have the Conservatives on 60%. Are you on drugs?
Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
Well there we go - no deal it is.
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics
Spoken like a true fanatic
It is No Dealers who are fanatics trying to impose a Brexit barely a third if the country supports at huge economic cost and with the risk of Scotland voting for independence and a hard border in Ireland. As a result Remainers and many soft Brexiteers will fight them every step of the way
Fortunately, we don’t make changes of Gov or formulate policy on transitory polls of dubious accuracy. We base them on elections. The criticism levelled at May’s deal bythe ERG are perfectly valid. Whatthe ERG have failed to do is to formulate a credible alternative but to say we need May’s deal because of that is risible. I don’t think a no deal is ideal but it is infinitely preferable to May’s deal. No Brexit is not my preferred choice but it is better than May’s deal.
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.
Alternatively, he played a weak hand very well for nearly two and a half years, and has only now been found out.
Well, the hand I meant was being in the situation of opposing a deal that looks not to have the numbers in parliament to pass. All Mogg & co. have to do is keep pressure on the deal and avoid the whips peeling people off. Embarrassing themselves with a failed coup (as they appear to be in the process of doing) can only hurt that.
As to your point, it depends whether the threat of a vonc has actually been influencing May much up until now, which I'm unsure of. Certainly early on in the Brexit process May gave far too much ground to Leavers, but I think that's thanks to Nick Timothy, not Mogg.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
And mine.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.
Indeed we are. I feel our politicians should be first against the wall when the revolution comes
A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.
Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.
Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.
Momentum has more than proven capable of moving swiftly against MPs that betray the leadership.
You're asking Labour MPs to, en masse, risk ending their political careers to save a Tory PM, and a deal they almost certainly hate, and to end the opportunity to get a people's vote or a general election.
For a Labour MP to do that would be, frankly, insane beyond redemption.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.
Personally I think we should have EUref3 when “no deal” wins.
'As a result of his determination to accomplish great victories Haig too often disregarded key factors such as weather, and the condition of the battlefield, placed his objectives beyond the range which his artillery could cover and incorporated in his schemes a role for cavalry which this arm was helpless to accomplish. These shortcomings, it needs to be stressed, were not at all peculiar to Haig. ... But the outcome, too often, was British operations directed towards unrealizable objectives and persisted in long after they had ceased to serve any worthwhile purpose. The consequence was excessive loss of British lives, insubstantial accomplishment, and waning morale.'
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.
Personally I think we should have EUref3 when “no deal” wins.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
And mine.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.
Indeed we are. I feel our politicians should be first against the wall when the revolution comes
Allow me to load the rifles...…
They are not the only culpable ones. I'd have Juncker and allies in the second batch for extermination, and many other groups and individuals to follow, but the part played by the Conservative has to be the most culpable.
It has to be the most chronic example of political and administrative incompetence we have seen in this country since Lord North and pals lost the Colonies.
Does anyone remember the 'Resignation a Day' the ERG was promising a month or so back? Do they actually believe this stuff, or is it some kind of psychological ploy intended to destabilise and intimidate?
This is a different argument to which I responded.
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.
I think you are confused.
What do you think I'm confused about?
That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.
Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.
Momentum has more than proven capable of moving swiftly against MPs that betray the leadership.
You're asking Labour MPs to, en masse, risk ending their political careers to save a Tory PM, and a deal they almost certainly hate, and to end the opportunity to get a people's vote or a general election.
For a Labour MP to do that would be, frankly, insane beyond redemption.
The ERG has told us that they can renegotiate a deal, in so doing legitimising Lab's vote against the deal on the premise that they could negotiate a better one. The ERG has provided Lab a backstop for the vote.
Does anyone remember the 'Resignation a Day' the ERG was promising a month or so back? Do they actually believe this stuff, or is it some kind of psychological ploy intended to destabilise and intimidate?
Every such statement must now be taken as trying to "make the ERG big" the same way you'd fight a black bear. In other words, trying to convince said bear you're far more of a threat than you are.
A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.
That's an argument against the first one...
The people in the first one knew what they were voting for - less immigrants in the C-E demographics taking their jobs...
Are big business and the CBI joining the ranks of traitors and saboteurs (Which now includes May herself) today ? @AlastairMeeks Was not wrong when he said to buy shares in betrayal.
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.
Alternatively, he played a weak hand very well for nearly two and a half years, and has only now been found out.
That is possible but I doubt it. If you're right, it won't just be that there's no VONC but May's deal will go through - which seems highly unlikely. The ERG seem to be about to wreck the chances of a WA. That has been their aim for a long time. If they achieve WTO they will have won.
Comments
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1064491025203437570
It is the reason that NI leads on just about every update, statement, commentary, or analysis of why we are in the state we are.
I see the evening standard opinion today is mentioning pineapple on pizza too...
End of days.
One of the GOP who will have a seat is Mia Love, who was castigated by Trump for losing.
All this negative politics about the alternative being Corbyn didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next one.
On that basis. May's deal IS currently the best option.
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.
And the Laurel and Hardy antics of the Rees Mogg Comedy Squad are as endearing as ever. Clearly no great strategy to go over the top as they did last week, and after making threats for so long, hard to see how they'll get taken as seriously again. They have the votes to torpedo the deal in the Meaningful Vote, and that's about it.
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuGd5UImJNE&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3bmmLk_6Zr1BNaL1dCCIfURSZq6UYB3_9TYm-4iRNSo7xMcmZYHvHN9Js
But if you want to be Flörschy with the umlaut (and you're on a PC) use the Alt code. You hold the Alt button and type 0246 on the right hand numeric keypad. Or Alt 0214 for a big Ö
Some more codes here https://usefulshortcuts.com/alt-codes/accents-alt-codes.php
Yes, these people could negotiate a better Brexit...
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
UKIP's 4m voters managed to make Dave include a promise in his manifesto so sometimes the little guy (albeit the little ex-commodity trading wearer of a too new dodgy velvet-collared covert coat guy) gets his way.
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.
It really does indicate what a brutal one-sided farce this soi-disant "negotiation" truly represents.
Tory MPs allowed May to spend an entire year engaged in a slow-motion campaign of deception and capitulation. Quite why they allowed her to do this is anyone's guess.
But having been caught out, the jig is up. Parliament has one chance to put this right, and that means May and her deviously terrible little scheme to run down the clock and bounce the UK into accepting Olly Robbins's dismal anti-democratic outrage BRINO has to die, and her leadership with it.
Parliament has one chance to put a stop to May's sordid little schemes, and it looks like a chance it's going to take with relish.
Then again, I think - comparatively - London 2012 was successful. It cost less than Beijing, with fewer human rights abuses, and it did help some regeneration. And it wasn't the clusterf*ck that Brazil was.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics
Suspect most of Labour will abstain probably PC too.
Key vote and a turnout of 50%...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Daa8ZnxC-0Y
If No Dealers want a war they will get one
If they vote against she is snookered.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
Whether it's intentional or not, the ERG are depriving May's deal of the oxygen of publicity it needs for people to start thinking of it as anything other than terrible and DOA.
Whether intentional or not, their shenanigans ensure the deal will not be able to escape from the epistemologically nebulous space of not yet dead.
Vote Cnutism! The nation is safe in the hands of these Cnuts.
In reality. it would be democratic.
1) We had a vote.
2) The result was close.
3) A lot of time and effort has been spent getting a deal.
4) The deal has been rejected by the elected parliament.
In that scenario, it would be democratic to throw it back to the people in another referendum (though much would depend on the options given).
"How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying? "
Project Fear.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.
Oh, you mean Melchett. Wellington as likely.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
I'm not saying appeasement *never* works, but I don't see how it works here.
Business doesn't care how bad the deal is, but uncertainty is bad for their wallets. And they like being rich, so...
As to your point, it depends whether the threat of a vonc has actually been influencing May much up until now, which I'm unsure of. Certainly early on in the Brexit process May gave far too much ground to Leavers, but I think that's thanks to Nick Timothy, not Mogg.
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.
You're asking Labour MPs to, en masse, risk ending their political careers to save a Tory PM, and a deal they almost certainly hate, and to end the opportunity to get a people's vote or a general election.
For a Labour MP to do that would be, frankly, insane beyond redemption.
Do they still want to get rid of the Pound and join the Euro?
They'll keep us in by hook or by crook.
'As a result of his determination to accomplish great victories Haig too often disregarded key factors such as weather, and the condition of the battlefield, placed his objectives beyond the range which his artillery could cover and incorporated in his schemes a role for cavalry which this arm was helpless to accomplish. These shortcomings, it needs to be stressed, were not at all peculiar to Haig. ... But the outcome, too often, was British operations directed towards unrealizable objectives and persisted in long after they had ceased to serve any worthwhile purpose. The consequence was excessive loss of British lives, insubstantial accomplishment, and waning morale.'
Remind you of anything happening at the moment??
They are not the only culpable ones. I'd have Juncker and allies in the second batch for extermination, and many other groups and individuals to follow, but the part played by the Conservative has to be the most culpable.
It has to be the most chronic example of political and administrative incompetence we have seen in this country since Lord North and pals lost the Colonies.
Their support for a deceptive capitulation to a vassal state BRINO deal was almost definitional.
@AlastairMeeks Was not wrong when he said to buy shares in betrayal.
The BCC haven't commented and that will be a much bigger step towards "business" being in favour (or not).
Although the FSB may have a view in practice it is more dominated by people as people.