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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives
Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10.
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What did for Thatcher in 1990 were the polls showing a 10% deficit to Labour with her as Prime Minister wiped out by Heseltine becoming PM. For backbenchers in marginal seats with a strong sense of self-preservation, Heseltine was hope and they voted for him.
When polls came along showing Major doing as well as Heseltine and Major got Thatcher's endorsement the deal was done.
The Conservatives are currently polling just behind Labour and there's no evidence any other leader would be doing any better and many would be doing significantly worse. Irrespective of whether it's Corbyn or a more acceptable centrist as LOTO, the MP in his or her marginal seat will conclude, I suspect, that for now (and that's key) May should remain in charge.
IF the Deal falls in Parliament and she quits, it would be different.
IF the Conservatives take a beating at the 2019 local elections, pressure from the grassroots activists for a change might well start building - another big part of 1990 were poor local election results and the Eastbourne by-election defeat.
https://twitter.com/NickFerrariLBC/status/1064432556630781952
*No 'e', really, but when an umlaut is omitted it seems adding one is the done thing.
Let's have a couple of years of Geoffrey Cox, to calm the party and the nation.
(And he's a Cambridge man, so how could TSE object?)
And also a well known believer in the existence of unicorns.
May needs to survive to a vote in the commons on the deal. I want to know for sure what each have every mp thinks and is prepared to risk on this. They can justify anything they choose then. Obviously you cannot. When it comes to votes and thresholds it makes no sense. If a quorum is a quarter of 15 you need 4 as 3 hasn't reached 3.75. They have some plans now. It's just a bit er hopeful.
And the divine justice is that we may well remain now because of them.
I’ll win around 16k if it is Hunt.
If it has taken them 5 days to not even get to 48, how on earth do they think they will get the 150 or whatever votes they need to bring her down?
He didn't even make the long list on the front of the digital I.
On the other hand I get a decent payout if he is next Tory leader.
Three unusable water cannon bought by Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London have been sold for scrap, at a net loss of more than £300,000.
On Floersch: should've been more precise, she said she was 'fine' but also 'going into surgery', so it sounds like she's injured but not in a life-changing/permanent way. Hope so, anyway. I avoided watching the video until I read that. It's a shade 1950s.
Fabricant's position is the much more rational one for Brexiteers. He is waiting for her to first lose her parliamentary vote on the deal. She will then have to either commit to no deal (allied to possible renegotiation) or a 2nd referendum. Fabricant says that he will only send in a letter if she fails to do the former and I suspect that there are many other Brexiteer MPs who take the same position. Just look at the names of ardent critics of May who have so far failed to own up to writing a letter. So there will be certainly be a leadership contest by mid December and it would take place in the most unfavourable circumstances possible for May.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/18/michael-fabricant-mpwhy-wont-writing-letter-chairman-1922/
Wiki: "More than 73.5 million journeys have been made using the cycles since 2010, with the record for cycle hires in a single day of 73,000.
There's a very hot market in second-hand kit, and has been for decades. Just a working, running chassis of a large vehicle should be worth more than that IMLE.
But to pull that off they need, I would think, to take over at such a time they can change direction from their predecessor decisively in style and approach, and carry the party with them. The contenders don't have that opportunity if the change is now. They can try to change things, indeed that is the reason for a challenge, but there won't be unity for a new leader to be able to project strength and new vision. So their negatives likely remain.
Hunt and Javid I have been disappointed by. What game involves staying in post but keeping quiet On the deal? Offering no real support for it or May but not distancing themselves like those who quit or the gutless five?
- TheWhiteRabbit, is it £39b or €39b? Our annual net contribution to the EU budget is £8.6b taking "rebates" into account, so 2 years of transition would account for ~£17b. Is that part of the £39b or is it on top of that?
- Big_G_NorthWales, is it over 45 years because of pensions to UK eurocrats and officials?
- Richard_Tyndall, if the "real obligation" is between £5b and £10b, does that mean we are paying between £29b and £34b to ensure the EU plays nicely as we leave so as to minimise disruption? Also, if we leave without a deal how much of the £39b are we still obliged to pay?
Though I guess only 3 months is needed, rounding down, if you are the ERG.
The sooner that idiot is booted from Cabinet by a new PM, the better.
Seems though, his platoon is a little smaller than he thought.
I don't see how he gets it though. Not tough enough to quit, not tough enough to put some effort in backing the deal. I know he has the day job but come on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserwerfer_9000
And some German authorities use them for firefighting. I cannot believe that's all they're worth second-hand.
As an aside, my dad used to know an Irishman who made an absolute killing buying second-hand emergency vehicles (e.g. ambulances, fire engines), refurbishing them, simplifying them, and then selling them to third-world countries.
He was often at Telford Auctions, dressed shabbily despite being a multi-millionaire.
Hunt needs Iran to hand over prisoners, and perhaps that needs Iran to want the next British prime minister owing them a favour, so it is not out of the question, though Hunt's "warnings" in the Sundays probably will not help.
For Javid, a national strategy on gangs, perhaps. He started well but it's gone quiet recently.
So follow Sir Humphrey's advice -- express no opinion on anything and find a Eurosausage.
The total net government expenditure on the scheme so far is £195 million – which works out at around £17,000 for each of the 11,500 hire bikes currently in circulation.
https://www.verdict.co.uk/londons-boris-bikes-scheme-has-cost-taxpayers-nearly-200m-foi-disclosure-reveals/
A triumph.
So might the first come to think of it.
The ERG MP really was not holding back.
I recall a link to the Sunday sport editor I believe on which words get censored or not.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-olympic-stadium-sadiq-khan-west-ham-united-a8087441.html
There is a pattern here, isn't there?
Still, he was a magnificent foreign secretary. Just ask Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe.
He is clearly brilliantly equipped to go back to Brussels to negotiate the deal with the EU that Theresa May was too craven and weak to get.
Not sure where they'll find a eurosausage out of this.
The sooner that idiot is booted from Cabinet by a new PM, the better.
Is it because we've not prepared for it? Or some other reason?
Do we have time to prepare or is it too late?
[SORRY FOR PREVIOUS POST, GOT MY BLOCKQUOTES MIXED UP!]
The other 20 bn is essentially in return for the transition period.
I mean I know in practice Corbyn or whoever will definitely take the can kicking route but it's an important distinction nevertheless.
So is this over? Far from it. It is still very hard to make a case for how May gets this deal through Parliament. Until there is a viable path to this we seem somewhat stuck and the idea of a second referendum is likely to grow in strength. It is also concerning that it is May once again out in front seeking support for her deal with business today. Hammond, Hunt and Javid all still seem to have more important things to do. Is this at her insistence? If so, her cabinet should have overruled her.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1064475214170472448