The important point is that he's the 53rd declared Tory against the deal, excluding all those who resigned last week. Suggests that May's initial deficit in her party for the deal is a bad as -70.
There's no way in god's clean earth she seriously believes she can flip 70 Tories just using the dark arts of the whip's office, so I can see two possibilities
1) The meaningful vote won't happen 2) May has something up her sleeve
3) She doesn't believe she can flip 70 Tories who are against (or, being generous, 50-60 of them and gain a pitiful handful of Labour rebels, maybe) and doesn't think the deal will pass, at the very least on the first go. But she wants parliament to tell her it won't do it officially, not have the dark arts of the parliamentary conservative party prevent it even getting to parliament in the first place.
Parliament is sovereign. If they don't want this deal they can tell the PM that properly.
If ERG cannot muster 48 MPs to sign no confidence letters, looks as if number actually voting against the deal and their leader will be into single figures -say 10 (or perhaps more likely 20 abstentions). Add four or five abstentions from the remainers -Grieve, Greening, etc. then support for the deal will be at about 304 including perhaps 4 of the various Independents.
SNP, Lib Dems Plaid and Greens number 52 so will need 243 out of current 257 Labour MPs to vote against for the deal to fail. Given the hostility of some to whatever Corbyn wants then to only lose 14 to abstentions (or 7 to voting for the deal) will be some ask.
I have ignored the DUP as their hostility to the deal should just about balance their hatred of Labour, leading them to abstain.
I don't think we can conclude that. A large majority of the Stand Up 4 Brexit brigade aren't calling (yet) for May's departure. Best guess is that amongst sane remainers and brexiteers alike, the Fabricant line is the default position.
Let the Meaningful Vote fail in the commons first, and *then* May can be forced out (if she doesn't just fall on her sword at that point, which I think she will).
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
Mickey Fab's plan looks politically speaking very sensible to me. The ERG needs to do a whipping operation to ensure their members don't bang out their letter prematurely.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....
Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.
If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.
You cannot separate May from the Deal, you just can't. Her premiership is the deal, and the deal is her premiership. We have both, or neither.
A formal split in Con would be interesting... And I'd think is very likely?
No doubt they'll surprise us, but how could it not? It's bizarre to see such fundamental disagreement and such vicious disagreement as well, from supposed colleagues.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.
Winning GEs does not matter right now. Brexit is more important.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.
If the ERG resort to allowing May to stay - or even supporting the WA if she agrees to go - then what a success for her.
Well, yes, though I would be flabbergasted if even a sizable portion of them would do that. I get the theory of trying separate person from policy, but they are all supposed to do that anyway even if does not usually happen in practice on less important issues, but if people would not vote a certain way on this vital issue because she had not agreed to go, they still should not if she does.
You cannot separate May from the Deal, you just can't. Her premiership is the deal, and the deal is her premiership. We have both, or neither.
I just do not buy that, if her deal were to pass, that she will go on and on and on, so I think the fear is needless. But even if Tories fear her leading them into the next GE (one is probably coming soon), tough, if they back the deal then suck it up.
The important point is that he's the 53rd declared Tory against the deal, excluding all those who resigned last week. Suggests that May's initial deficit in her party for the deal is a bad as -70.
There's no way in god's clean earth she seriously believes she can flip 70 Tories just using the dark arts of the whip's office, so I can see two possibilities
1) The meaningful vote won't happen 2) May has something up her sleeve
3) She doesn't believe she can flip 70 Tories who are against (or, being generous, 50-60 of them and gain a pitiful handful of Labour rebels, maybe) and doesn't think the deal will pass, at the very least on the first go. But she wants parliament to tell her it won't do it officially, not have the dark arts of the parliamentary conservative party prevent it even getting to parliament in the first place.
Parliament is sovereign. If they don't want this deal they can tell the PM that properly.
Yes, Parliament has to own the consequences of either voting for, or against, the Deal.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....
Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.
No government ever blames its predecessors for the mess it makes.....
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.
We should revoke Article 50. Then invoke it again.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Mays deal would be resoundingly defeated.
Parliament would then decide to Remain.
The follow-up election: "who governs us, the voters or the MPs?" would be a bloodbath for those who voted to can Brexit....
It'd be a bloodbath for the Tories, Labour's voters are generally remainers.
Depends if there is time to form an anti-Establishment "Voters" Party before that election. I could see that getting a good hearing in Leave-voting Labour seats.
You mean UKIP ? They have, and will take plenty of net Tory votes.
UKIP is tainted with being bat-shit crazy though.... Needs a new party.
Biggest beneficiary of this May deal will be the stay at home party.
No, the biggest beneficiary will be Corbyn....
Not really - he gets to be PM in the middle of a sh1tstorm. His reign will be defined by Brexit.
All governments blame their predecessors for the messes they are in, for year and years. Corbyn would have an awful lot to deal with, and be constrained as a result I am sure, but that's a problem parties would always prefer to have than being in opposition, and he'll have plenty to blame on his predecessor.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
No, recent events have shown beyond any doubt at all (even if there was any doubt before) that the ERGers will simply never under any circumstances do anything other than trash any possibility of a reasonable implementation of Brexit. It doesn't matter what is in any deal or who fronts it, it will always be a betrayal in their eyes.
I think Gove would get a better end result with an FTA. He’s the only one I’d trust to do his best.
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.
Gove is actually the best of a bad bunch. Not because he backed Leave and "owns it" or whatever, but because he has shown in government whichever brief he gets switched to, he actually reads up on the subject, takes sounding etc and putting aside the blob hatred of him, the legal and environment people seem to think he does a decent job and is fairly pragmatic about things.
However, the man could start an argument in an empty room. Not the sort of person who could win the country over, especially so many Remainer blame him and Boris for Brexit.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?
They'll only believe that 'democracy doesn't work' if enough idiots tell them that.
In reality. it would be democratic.
1) We had a vote. 2) The result was close. 3) A lot of time and effort has been spent getting a deal. 4) The deal has been rejected by the elected parliament.
In that scenario, it would be democratic to throw it back to the people in another referendum (though much would depend on the options given).
"How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying? "
Project Fear.
Cancelling a democratic decision before it has even been enacted on the basis of an incompetent negotiation run by those who didn't even support the decision is not democracy.
That is the accurate narrative that will be pushed by many including myself.
I've got another narrative you could give:
"I so wanted Brexit, I placed myself with others with totally incompatible views (including those nasty, bigoted views), in order to get it. Once I got a result, I then went around blaming everyone else for the fact that those views cannot be matched.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
I agree with that. And if they deal does not pass, Boris Johnson, JRM & Co. will take pride in the fact that they prevented the wrong kind of Brexit.
There is no prize. More defence of wounded pride. The deal is a hell of a price just to tick a box
Comments
Parliament is sovereign. If they don't want this deal they can tell the PM that properly.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1064504969917857793
Let the Meaningful Vote fail in the commons first, and *then* May can be forced out (if she doesn't just fall on her sword at that point, which I think she will).
Could he command the whole parliamentary party and the DUP? Could he win a GE?
Those are very different questions.
Then invoke it again.
Call the first Brexit a mulligan.
NEW THREAD
NOBODY HAS ANY IDEA.
However, the man could start an argument in an empty room. Not the sort of person who could win the country over, especially so many Remainer blame him and Boris for Brexit.
"I so wanted Brexit, I placed myself with others with totally incompatible views (including those nasty, bigoted views), in order to get it. Once I got a result, I then went around blaming everyone else for the fact that those views cannot be matched.
It's my fault Brexit cannot be delivered.
I fucked up. Sorry."