I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If they don't realise that they are perhaps going to be in for a big shock, though it is not certain yet. I wonder if they will look back more fondly on this Brexit deal if we remain, crap though it is.
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
C'mon, it's been explained zillions of times. No deal (which is largely unrelated to whether we transition to WTO terms) means what it says. There would be no legal framework for flying aeroplanes, or selling agricultural products to the EU, or selling medicines to the EU, or unwinding trillions of euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
These problems could have been solved by preparing for them. So basically no deal is a disaster because they were negligent. Or maybe they did prepare for it and aren't telling us (I refuse to believe even May could be that stupid)
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
Serious preparations for No Deal would have involved telling a lot of manufacturing businesses to mothball their UK operations and relocate to other countries.
Hermann von Rompuy was on Radio 4 this morning talking a lot of sense and saying that Britain really needed to focus on the FTA which they wanted to have with the EU and which the EU also wanted to have, not the transition which was the way to get from where we are now to there in a calm and orderly manner. Why our God-awful MPs can't see this I don't know. Or rather I do. They too are morons.
There's the other huge bit of nonsense he says too in there....
That is the point I made yesterday at the time. Clueless just does not cut it
However, this lack of understanding of the process is widespread and on all sides and is the reason that the one and only chance to leave the EU will be lost
I'm not too worried that Corbyn hasn't a clue on the detail. He wouldn't be anywhere near the negotiations if they come to power in a snap election. Starmer will do the work.
Doesn't bode well in general though for a Corbyn administration. I guess almost everything will be delegated for McD to run.
Yes but Starmer is saying exactly the same as Corbyn
Starmer is far smarter of course. I expect he calculates there's at least an opportunity for another referendum somewhere down the road.
Labours policy works 'for now', keeps the show on the road and gives room for movement.
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Food goes in and out as it is processed is I believe one of the issues with this view.
Modern supply chains are incredibly complex. Standing back from all this, and looking long term, this may be something we need to change.
I see Theresa May's "selling" her deal to the CBI - That would be the same CBI who for years told us it would be a "disaster" if we didn't abandon our currency and join the Euro yes?
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Yes. You are missing the fact that when panic sets in, reason goes out the window. If the public starts to panic about Brexit then things will get interesting very quickly.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
Mickey Fab's plan looks politically smart to me ! But this rattling around of not quite at 48 letters takes potential steam out of a swift strike post deal being voted down. And to reach the 48 letters right now would be a disaster for the ERG - May could treat them with impunity post vote.
Listening to TM at the CBI and her detailed knowledge on Brexit leaves all else trailing by a mountain mile
She fulfils most of the brexit requirements and these ultras threaten leaving for their pure ideology
It would be the irony of all ironies if ERG take down the deal and then find brexit taken from them by the HOC as a second referendum becomes inevitable
This deal will not pass the HoC. It's now clearly a choice of no deal or no Brexit.
If it boils down to that, it will be No-Brexit. The HoC will never allow No-deal.
There is a 3rd way. The so-called TARP strategy. The HoC votes it down. The markets go into utter meltdown and the pound tanks, forcing food prices rises within days. Front pages full of warnings of disaster. Army announces it is on standby etc etc.
MPs panic.
May puts vote back again to HoC and scrapes through, as faced with the abyss, enough MPs fold.
Or, May resigns, forced GE, Corbyn gets into power, repackages the deal as 'labour's deal' it's exactly the same, and then is in control of the Brexit full negotiation.
Oh, I'm sure it won't be exactly the same. Just mostly the same. It will be fun to see the explanation of the differences when Labour push for its agreement next time. I hope they will indeed be substantive, otherwise they should have backed this one.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are now nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
At least Labour decided on a unity (Yes I know it was Owen Jones) but then got "scuppered" by their own rules and genuine popularity for Corbyn amongst the membership. This is starting to look even worse than Labour's failed coup.
Listening to TM at the CBI and her detailed knowledge on Brexit leaves all else trailing by a mountain mile
She fulfils most of the brexit requirements and these ultras threaten leaving for their pure ideology
It would be the irony of all ironies if ERG take down the deal and then find brexit taken from them by the HOC as a second referendum becomes inevitable
This deal will not pass the HoC. It's now clearly a choice of no deal or no Brexit.
If it boils down to that, it will be No-Brexit. The HoC will never allow No-deal.
There is a 3rd way. The so-called TARP strategy. The HoC votes it down. The markets go into utter meltdown and the pound tanks, forcing food prices rises within days. Front pages full of warnings of disaster. Army announces it is on standby etc etc.
MPs panic.
May puts vote back again to HoC and scrapes through, as faced with the abyss, enough MPs fold.
Or, May resigns, forced GE, Corbyn gets into power, repackages the deal as 'labour's deal' it's exactly the same, and then is in control of the Brexit full negotiation.
Oh, I'm sure it won't be exactly the same. Just mostly the same. It will be fun to see the explanation of the differences when Labour push for its agreement next time. I hope they will indeed be substantive, otherwise they should have backed this one.
It'll be 'waffle/bullshit' and lo and behold it now meets their 6 tests.
Arn't labour and Corbyn a master of negotiation!!! Just dont look too hard.
Yes but Starmer is saying exactly the same as Corbyn
He makes it sound less obviously gibberish, though.
What that they can negotiate a deal where we have all the benefits of staying in the EU, whilst still leaving?
Yes. He is naturally more credible seeming, though it doesn't mean that stance is actually credible (nor does them saying the Tories promises it too make it more credible).
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
Yep. Worth bearing in mind that the only other offer on the table for the Stadium at the time was from Spurs who would take it on only on condition they could change it so that it could no longer hold athletic events - in direct contravention of the agreement the UK had with the IOC at the time of the award of the Games.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are now nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
At least Labour decided on a unity (Yes I know it was Owen Jones) but then got "scuppered" by their own rules and genuine popularity for Corbyn amongst the membership. This is starting to look even worse than Labour's failed coup.
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Yes. You are missing the fact that when panic sets in, reason goes out the window. If the public starts to panic about Brexit then things will get interesting very quickly.
I'm expecting panic. This is no longer the country of keep calm and carry on. When the supermarket shelves are restocked the panic will subside a bit, though.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That deal if we remain, crap though it is.
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
Both sides may think it worth it, but it also increases the chance of their worst outcome happening.
I'm open to hearing why no deal is so bad, the only one I've heard being that the government hasn't prepared for it.
Now if we can't go for no deal purely because of negligence from May then I can see why the Brexiteers in government are incredibly angry.
Being angry is irrelevant. No deal is a default option so if nothing else can be agreed it happens, but no matter how angry no dealers may be, no matter how justified that may be and no matter whether no deal would be just fine, most of the Commons appear to be saying no deal will not be permitted to happen. Ergo something else will be tried. It may be unsuccessful and no deal happens anyway. But if it is successful, what would that be? It could, for instance, be a referendum which ends up saying we remain.
And if that happens, the no dealers will have little cause to complain - they will have been the ones in effect saying no Brexit is better than a bad Brexit.
No just 'in effect' - quite a few of the ERG have been quite explicit about that being the case. Of course plenty of more rational leavers take quite a different view, unhappy with May's deal as they are. The bottom line is that there is no deal (including 'no deal') which will make everyone happy - and people's judgments of what constitutes a 'crap' one (and the reasons for its being crap) vary dramatically.
This is the predictable (and predicted) outcome of a Brexit vote. Either leavers want Brexit. or they don't really. There are at least three leaver opinions on May's deal - too soft (ERG etc); too hard (Labour); deeply flawed, but acceptable (rationalists). Quite what the split is between the 52% who voted leave, heaven alone knows.
If you think it's bad here, spare a thought on the shenanigans in Sri Lanka. The President sacking a legitimately elected PM, installing his own PM (one with a huge amount of baggage) and after failing to "buy off" enough MPs, a PM who has failed a floor test twice. Utter shambles!
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Food goes in and out as it is processed is I believe one of the issues with this view.
Modern supply chains are incredibly complex. Standing back from all this, and looking long term, this may be something we need to change.
So we might expect shortages of processed foods, but all the staples will still be there. It's not like there will be a calorie-deficit, surely?
if the letters do come in today what is the timescale for the VoNC? 48 hours?
Procedure for the Election of the Leader of the Conservative Party rule 5:
"The Chairman (of the '22), after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing."
Interesting that JRM said he wasn't putting his name forward when there is no provision for self-nomination. And of course as yet no vacancy.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are now nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
At least Labour decided on a unity (Yes I know it was Owen Jones) but then got "scuppered" by their own rules and genuine popularity for Corbyn amongst the membership. This is starting to look even worse than Labour's failed coup.
I think you might mean Owen Smith?
Ah yes, almost as memorable as former Labour leader David Miliband
I only did an economics degree at university. But occasionally I think I would like to teach - though probably something like history or ethics or financial history or the joys of poetry or public speaking. Part of my current work is passing on knowledge in the form of training. I do think that once you have experience and wisdom and knowledge you should try and pass it on to those who come after. Though maybe full-time teaching is not for everyone.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If the
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
if the letters do come in today what is the timescale for the VoNC? 48 hours?
Procedure for the Election of the Leader of the Conservative Party rule 5:
"The Chairman (of the '22), after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing."
Interesting that JRM said he wasn't putting his name forward when there is no provision for self-nomination. And of course as yet no vacancy.
thanks. suitably vague but shouldn't take long if only MPs involved.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Most trucks carry goods both ways (i.e. the mode of transport itself is bidirectional). After the first load arrives, those trucks will not be able to return without negotiating the 40-mile car park approaching Dover. This could be solved, of course, by making the trucks return empty, which would given inflation a mighty boost as prices rose.
And this presumes that the govt is totally happy to believe that food trucks are not carrying anything else, and that the EU is totally happy to believe that all returning trucks are actually empty.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If they don't realise that they are perhaps going to be in for a big shock, though it is not certain yet. I wonder if they will look back more fondly on this Brexit deal if we remain, crap though it is.
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
C'mon, it's been explained zillions of times. No deal (which is largely unrelated to whether we transition to WTO terms) means what it says. There would be no legal framework for flying aeroplanes, or selling agricultural products to the EU, or selling medicines to the EU, or unwinding trillions of euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
These problems could have been solved by preparing for them. So basically no deal is a disaster because they were negligent. Or maybe they did prepare for it and aren't telling us (I refuse to believe even May could be that stupid)
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
Serious preparations for No Deal would have involved telling a lot of manufacturing businesses to mothball their UK operations and relocate to other countries.
Yes no countries that aren't in the EU have any manufacturing.
Who has ever heard of anything made in China for example?
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
Again worth pointing out that the rules have changed. I suspect the year long immunity after a failed VONC is concentrating some minds.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
I only did an economics degree at university. But occasionally I think I would like to teach - though probably something like history or ethics or financial history or the joys of poetry or public speaking. Part of my current work is passing on knowledge in the form of training. I do think that once you have experience and wisdom and knowledge you should try and pass it on to those who come after. Though maybe full-time teaching is not for everyone.
I do informal teaching/instructing occasionally. It used to be programming but I have moved on to other stuff. Either way, it can be very satisfying to help others increase their skills, so I can understand how you feel.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Most trucks carry goods both ways (i.e. the mode of transport itself is bidirectional). After the first load arrives, those trucks will not be able to return without negotiating the 40-mile car park approaching Dover. This could be solved, of course, by making the trucks return empty, which would given inflation a mighty boost as prices rose.
And this presumes that the govt is totally happy to believe that food trucks are not carrying anything else, and that the EU is totally happy to believe that all returning trucks are actually empty.
Plus there is an issue with licences for truck drivers to operate in EU in a No Deal situation iirc.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If the
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
Hermann von Rompuy was on Radio 4 this morning talking a lot of sense and saying that Britain really needed to focus on the FTA which they wanted to have with the EU and which the EU also wanted to have, not the transition which was the way to get from where we are now to there in a calm and orderly manner. Why our God-awful MPs can't see this I don't know. Or rather I do. They too are morons.
That is the point I made yesterday at the time. Clueless just does not cut it
However, this lack of understanding of the process is widespread and on all sides and is the reason that the one and only chance to leave the EU will be lost
I'm not too worried that Corbyn hasn't a clue on the detail. He wouldn't be anywhere near the negotiations if they come to power in a snap election. Starmer will do the work.
Doesn't bode well in general though for a Corbyn administration. I guess almost everything will be delegated for McD to run.
Yes but Starmer is saying exactly the same as Corbyn
Starmer is far smarter of course. I expect he calculates there's at least an opportunity for another referendum somewhere down the road.
Labours policy works 'for now', keeps the show on the road and gives room for movement.
You would have to be dyslexic to think that Starmer is Smarter
if the letters do come in today what is the timescale for the VoNC? 48 hours?
Procedure for the Election of the Leader of the Conservative Party rule 5:
"The Chairman (of the '22), after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing."
Interesting that JRM said he wasn't putting his name forward when there is no provision for self-nomination. And of course as yet no vacancy.
thanks. suitably vague but shouldn't take long if only MPs involved.
Raab has drifted out a tad to 9 on BF, since I last looked.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
Well, the outline final deal (i.e. not the withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration) does look really rather good, as far as one can tell from the rather broad-brush language. The devil's as ever in the detail, but it does look as though it would allow us to pick the choicest cherries.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
Again worth pointing out that the rules have changed. I suspect the year long immunity after a failed VONC is concentrating some minds.
Indeed. All the more stress on "inevitable". There isn't supposed to be a VONC unless it is reasonably clear that the Leader will lose
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
Well, the outline final deal (i.e. not the withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration) does look really rather good, as far as one can tell from the rather broad-brush language. The devil's as ever in the detail, but it does look as though it would allow us to pick the choicest cherries.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If the
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
During Davis's 'No deal' transition period obviously "If we need to leave with no deal and negotiate a free trade agreement during the transition period, so be it."
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
Again worth pointing out that the rules have changed. I suspect the year long immunity after a failed VONC is concentrating some minds.
Indeed. All the more stress on "inevitable". There isn't supposed to be a VONC unless it is reasonably clear that the Leader will lose
To be frank, May should get a few of her friends to stick some letters in and win it.
As the above polling shows there is no better alternative to May as PM and there is no harder Brexit available either which does not make EUref2 and Remain significantly more likely
if the letters do come in today what is the timescale for the VoNC? 48 hours?
Procedure for the Election of the Leader of the Conservative Party rule 5:
"The Chairman (of the '22), after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing."
Interesting that JRM said he wasn't putting his name forward when there is no provision for self-nomination. And of course as yet no vacancy.
thanks. suitably vague but shouldn't take long if only MPs involved.
And if she loses then nominations for the next leader have to close at noon on a Thursday, so if the passing of the 48 threshold is announced today they're going to want to get the VONC over by the end of tomorrow I should have thought.
Hermann von Rompuy was on Radio 4 this morning talking a lot of sense and saying that Britain really needed to focus on the FTA which they wanted to have with the EU and which the EU also wanted to have, not the transition which was the way to get from where we are now to there in a calm and orderly manner. Why our God-awful MPs can't see this I don't know. Or rather I do. They too are morons.
There's the other huge bit of nonsense he says too in there....
That is the point I made yesterday at the time. Clueless just does not cut it
However, this lack of understanding of the process is widespread and on all sides and is the reason that the one and only chance to leave the EU will be lost
Its a total mystery how he got such shit a-levels results despite going to one of the best state schools in the country....
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If the
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
Again worth pointing out that the rules have changed. I suspect the year long immunity after a failed VONC is concentrating some minds.
Which, going back to Wilfrun_Phil's point earlier about Michael Frabricant not voting for a VONC now but doing so if May refuses to back No Deal post-the deal not going through Parliament, gives Labour a greater incentive to vote against the deal. If it passes, she is off the hook. If it fails, she then may face a VONC if she refuses to back No Deal.
Nope, but it might lead to May finding Labour votes in order to get the bill through with a second ref amendment. Whereas if they hold the VONC back then it is a silver bullet they can use should she go down that path.
Locking her in for a year and then crashing the deal so there's chaos rules out her chances of leading the Tories into the next election? Impressive logic - I do hope these guys bet on politics.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
Well, the outline final deal (i.e. not the withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration) does look really rather good, as far as one can tell from the rather broad-brush language. The devil's as ever in the detail, but it does look as though it would allow us to pick the choicest cherries.
What is good about it? Can we sign trade deals for example?
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
Well, the outline final deal (i.e. not the withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration) does look really rather good, as far as one can tell from the rather broad-brush language. The devil's as ever in the detail, but it does look as though it would allow us to pick the choicest cherries.
What is good about it? Can we sign trade deals for example?
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
As the days tick on, I would not be surprised if the number of letters went down.
it rapidly starts to look like a dead duck of a coup attempt
And I thought the Tories were ruthless when it came to leader succession. They are nearly as bad as Labour in this matter.
That's the point I think Murali.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
Again worth pointing out that the rules have changed. I suspect the year long immunity after a failed VONC is concentrating some minds.
Perhaps but its worth remembering that Thatcher's downfall came on the second go a year after the first.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
I remain to be convinced that the EU desperately wants to give us a tremendous deal and it's only May's treason/incompetence that is standing in the way of it.
Well, the outline final deal (i.e. not the withdrawal agreement, but the political declaration) does look really rather good, as far as one can tell from the rather broad-brush language. The devil's as ever in the detail, but it does look as though it would allow us to pick the choicest cherries.
What is good about it? Can we sign trade deals for example?
Yes
I thought that was impossible because of the terms of the deal. What are we unable to do in the deal offered? Why is the deal so unpopular?
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If the
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
I still await your answer. Obviously I don't expect you to be able to cover the entire range of all economic activity, but a few examples will suffice, say on on medical exports to the EU, on agricultural exports to the EU, on governing law for derivative contracts, on the regulatory framework for aerospace manufacturing, on the open skies agreements, on how we avoid customs delays at Calais, that sort of thing.
The denizens of Mumsnet have themselves worked up about food shortages following a no-deal Brexit, but surely all the problems at the border will be for UK exports, not imports?
I can't imagine any UK government causing food shortages by imposing border checks on food imports.
Am I missing anything? (I'm assuming that only a very small proportion of food imports travel by air)
Most trucks carry goods both ways (i.e. the mode of transport itself is bidirectional). After the first load arrives, those trucks will not be able to return without negotiating the 40-mile car park approaching Dover. This could be solved, of course, by making the trucks return empty, which would given inflation a mighty boost as prices rose.
And this presumes that the govt is totally happy to believe that food trucks are not carrying anything else, and that the EU is totally happy to believe that all returning trucks are actually empty.
Okay, so potentially the worst case scenario has panic-buying in week one, but then some real shortages by week three because all the freight transport capacity is stuck in the Great Lorry Park of Kent. Maybe we'll be with the in-laws for Easter by then. If we think it's safe to take the ferry to Larne.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
Further proof that David Davis is a moron.
I mean he thought with Brexit he could do a separate trade deal with Germany.
Did he really? Or did he think that getting Germany's backing for a deal would be worthwhile because of the power they have within the EU?
Its worth remembering that this last 12 months have been spent arguing not with the EU but by proxy with just one member of the EU. Deal with the members well and you deal with the EU.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.
You might well be right.
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
I thought that was impossible because of the terms of the deal. What are we unable to do in the deal offered? Why is the deal so unpopular?
It's not unpopular amongst people who give it a fair hearing. Obviously it's unpopular with Labour, who just want to oppose for the sake of opposition, and amongst continuity Remainers, who don't want Brexat at all, and amongst the ERGers, who on principle won't support anything the EU is prepared to agree, despite the fact that the deal gives them exactly what they campaigned for.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
Further proof that David Davis is a moron.
I mean he thought with Brexit he could do a separate trade deal with Germany.
Did he really? Or did he think that getting Germany's backing for a deal would be worthwhile because of the power they have within the EU?
Its worth remembering that this last 12 months have been spent arguing not with the EU but by proxy with just one member of the EU. Deal with the members well and you deal with the EU.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The threat is in the message. 40-60 MPs cannot come close to winning a VoNC against May but they may well make it impossible for this deal to pass the HoC provided Labour continue to vote against and remain reasonably united. This is May's real problem.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.
You might well be right.
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.
Apart rom making everyone feel good for a little while is there any evidence that hosting an event like the Olympics actually benefits a country? Serious question rather than point scoring. Does the additional people doing sports, new infrastructure and short term additional GDP outweigh the costs? I am seeing no sign of it looking at other Olympic cities.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-
1) May's deal 2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Unfortunately, when people are scared or uncertain they'll latch on to anyone and anything that gives them hope.
The CBI lap up May not because she's a great PM but because she offers a scintilla of re-assurance that "everything will be all right".
Frightened people will agree to anything - civil liberties are sold down the river after the first attack and scapegoats are found and vilified.
Frightened people will vote for anyone who offers them hope and when they find out that hope isn't what they thought they'll latch on to the next optimist.
Somebody once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself - he was a great man as I recall.
I only did an economics degree at university. But occasionally I think I would like to teach - though probably something like history or ethics or financial history or the joys of poetry or public speaking. Part of my current work is passing on knowledge in the form of training. I do think that once you have experience and wisdom and knowledge you should try and pass it on to those who come after. Though maybe full-time teaching is not for everyone.
I spent a couple of years on a Royal Literary Fund fellowship a while ago. Supposedly I was there to help students improve their academic writing (quite how having written a few historical novels qualified me to do this was and is a mystery to me). It was actually a lot of fun and quite rewarding mostly, even though much of the time it felt as if I was actually teaching remedial English to people who really shouldn't have been at university in the first place.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal? And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.
The WTO acknowledges that there are differences between sea and land borders. The issue would boil down to is the Chunnel a sea or land border. I would imagine that we would argue we need to check at the Chunnel because of the threat of a terrorist incident within it.
I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon. It's a much better place to be than the confused depths of May loyalism. For one thing, you don't have to silence that inner voice that keeps asking why, if this was always the best deal on offer, May spent the year running down the clock pretending she was going to get something else before capitulating. Because there are only two answers, and neither is particularly flattering: either she genuinely believed she'd get something better, in which case she's just as stupid as the ERG, or it was a deliberate tactic to get her deal through by forcing it to be a last minute take-it-or-leave-it offer, in which case she- not the ERG- is responsible for the high-stakes game of chicken we're in. And you don't have to forgive her for missteps- like the 2017 election- that led to her being unable to get her deal through parliament.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.
It.
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?
I'd rather people back no deal because they don't think it would be a disaster, rightly or wrongly, than choosing disaster because how dare those meanies push for another option.
If the government has unnecessarily brought us to the brink of disaster with their tactics, I don't know that a sensible solution is to accept the disaster out of petulance at their incompetence, rather than take the non-disaster route and castigate all those involved accordingly.
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.
Personally I think we should have EUref3 when “no deal” wins.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
The comments are not entirely complimentary!
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.
Stockpiling no confidence letters. We've now got a shortage on our hands.
Comments
Labours policy works 'for now', keeps the show on the road and gives room for movement.
Modern supply chains are incredibly complex. Standing back from all this, and looking long term, this may be something we need to change.
And to reach the 48 letters right now would be a disaster for the ERG - May could treat them with impunity post vote.
Tory leaders resign when their downfall becomes inevitable. Although I am not a huge fan of the metaphor, Graham Brady is supposed to hand May the whiskey and the revolver.
The current attempt is floundering because there is no general feeling that May will lose a VONC. Quite the opposite. And the Tory Party system is not designed to dog down May or wear her down.
(I do think the ERG will get their challenge, but boy is this dragging on)
Arn't labour and Corbyn a master of negotiation!!! Just dont look too hard.
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
Of course plenty of more rational leavers take quite a different view, unhappy with May's deal as they are. The bottom line is that there is no deal (including 'no deal') which will make everyone happy - and people's judgments of what constitutes a 'crap' one (and the reasons for its being crap) vary dramatically.
This is the predictable (and predicted) outcome of a Brexit vote. Either leavers want Brexit. or they don't really.
There are at least three leaver opinions on May's deal - too soft (ERG etc); too hard (Labour); deeply flawed, but acceptable (rationalists).
Quite what the split is between the 52% who voted leave, heaven alone knows.
If you think it's bad here, spare a thought on the shenanigans in Sri Lanka. The President sacking a legitimately elected PM, installing his own PM (one with a huge amount of baggage) and after failing to "buy off" enough MPs, a PM who has failed a floor test twice. Utter shambles!
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/sri-lanka-to-hold-third-vote-on-no-confidence-motion-against-mahinda-rajapaksa-1949569
"The Chairman (of the '22), after consultation with the Leader, shall determine the actual date of such a vote which shall be held as soon as possible in the circumstances prevailing."
Interesting that JRM said he wasn't putting his name forward when there is no provision for self-nomination. And of course as yet no vacancy.
I only did an economics degree at university. But occasionally I think I would like to teach - though probably something like history or ethics or financial history or the joys of poetry or public speaking. Part of my current work is passing on knowledge in the form of training. I do think that once you have experience and wisdom and knowledge you should try and pass it on to those who come after. Though maybe full-time teaching is not for everyone.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
And this presumes that the govt is totally happy to believe that food trucks are not carrying anything else, and that the EU is totally happy to believe that all returning trucks are actually empty.
Who has ever heard of anything made in China for example?
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1064475275159834625?s=21
And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
I mean he thought with Brexit he could do a separate trade deal with Germany.
Unless the next GE is within the 12 months that she would be safe for.
What are we unable to do in the deal offered? Why is the deal so unpopular?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
Its worth remembering that this last 12 months have been spent arguing not with the EU but by proxy with just one member of the EU. Deal with the members well and you deal with the EU.
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
https://twitter.com/jrogan3000/status/1062624135115927552?s=21
"If we need to leave with no deal and negotiate a free trade agreement during the transition period, so be it."
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
Unfortunately, when people are scared or uncertain they'll latch on to anyone and anything that gives them hope.
The CBI lap up May not because she's a great PM but because she offers a scintilla of re-assurance that "everything will be all right".
Frightened people will agree to anything - civil liberties are sold down the river after the first attack and scapegoats are found and vilified.
Frightened people will vote for anyone who offers them hope and when they find out that hope isn't what they thought they'll latch on to the next optimist.
Somebody once said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself - he was a great man as I recall.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.