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arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1064491025203437570
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No changes to the withdrawal agreement is what they said.TGOHF said:arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/10644910252034375700 -
There are provisions for extenuating (ie security) circumstances which might render a border unnecessary. But we have discussed this a zillion times. And for the zillion and first time: TMay knows (because she is actually in power and not pushing from the back like the ERG-ers) that she simply cannot embark upon a course of action, one of the paths of which might lead to a hard border.ralphmalph said:
The WTO acknowledges that there are differences between sea and land borders. The issue would boil down to is the Chunnel a sea or land border. I would imagine that we would argue we need to check at the Chunnel because of the threat of a terrorist incident within it.TOPPING said:
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.Xenon said:
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.TOPPING said:
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.Xenon said:
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.Xenon said:
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm not sure which would provide more grim amusement: watching Labour trying to renegotiate, or watching the ERG loons trying to renegotiate. I hope it's an amusement we never have to experience, though.Slackbladder said:
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
The comments are not entirely complimentary!Slackbladder said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
It is the reason that NI leads on just about every update, statement, commentary, or analysis of why we are in the state we are.0 -
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1064491721776668672Richard_Nabavi said:
No changes to the withdrawal agreement is what they said.TGOHF said:arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/10644910252034375700 -
EUref1 should not count as it was corrupted by financial illegality and foreign interference.0
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Looking forward to Noel Edmonds appearing on I'm a Celebrity .... I'm sure the PB community will rise above the stale 'puns' that the papers and social media will inevitably sink to.
I see the evening standard opinion today is mentioning pineapple on pizza too...
End of days.0 -
Fair enough, but 'want' is not 'gets'.TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1064491721776668672Richard_Nabavi said:
No changes to the withdrawal agreement is what they said.TGOHF said:arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/10644910252034375700 -
What a shit show this really is.TGOHF said:0 -
The final house tally looks highly highly likely to be 202 GOP - 233 Democrat giving a majority of 31 for the blues.
One of the GOP who will have a seat is Mia Love, who was castigated by Trump for losing.0 -
May and her supporters are so inept in office that they helping to keep Corbyn’s Labour within touching distance of power. When are people going to realise that ditching May and replacing her with someone who has relevant policies, political charisma and can properly articulate an argument without being restricted to a sounbite or a speech written by someone else is the only way to see off Corbyn.
All this negative politics about the alternative being Corbyn didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next one.0 -
This is a different argument to which I responded.TOPPING said:
There are provisions for extenuating (ie security) circumstances which might render a border unnecessary. But we have discussed this a zillion times. And for the zillion and first time: TMay knows (because she is actually in power and not pushing from the back like the ERG-ers) that she simply cannot embark upon a course of action, one of the paths of which might lead to a hard border.ralphmalph said:
The WTO acknowledges that there are differences between sea and land borders. The issue would boil down to is the Chunnel a sea or land border. I would imagine that we would argue we need to check at the Chunnel because of the threat of a terrorist incident within it.TOPPING said:
It would be a possibility if any country challenged us via WTO MFN if we gave preferential treatment to RoI goods entering NI.Xenon said:
It wouldn't be us putting them up, but the cuddly EU. It might be useful later when the Irish want to leave and the EU army posted on them can stop anyone escaping.TOPPING said:
She should have put a lot of these up along the border in NI. Just in case.Xenon said:
Mythical? Are you telling me there was no preparation to be done in the event of no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm still waiting for your response to my question as to what this mythical preparation should have been.Xenon said:
Yeah they're the loons. Not May who has failed to prepare for no deal while coming up with a deal that can't get through parliament.Richard_Nabavi said:
.Slackbladder said:
Also the simple fact is that Canada +++whatever doesn't solve the NI issue.Richard_Nabavi said:
The comments are not entirely complimentary!Slackbladder said:https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html
Is Davis really thinking that in the event of a no-deal there's a transision period ???
WTF???????
How you can defend her behaviour is beyond me.
And you have the cheek to call other people loons.
It is the reason that NI leads on just about every update, statement, commentary, or analysis of why we are in the state we are.0 -
Agree and he was hell bent on a white elephant regardless. No problem to him as a multi - millionaire spending public money that could have been better used. Bozo is just another example that these people are happy to squander any amount on their pet projects purely to feed their over inflated ego's.Richard_Tyndall said:
Apart rom making everyone feel good for a little while is there any evidence that hosting an event like the Olympics actually benefits a country? Serious question rather than point scoring. Does the additional people doing sports, new infrastructure and short term additional GDP outweigh the costs? I am seeing no sign of it looking at other Olympic cities.malcolmg said:
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.JosiasJessop said:
You might well be right.tlg86 said:
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.JosiasJessop said:
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.matt said:
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.0 -
EU speak with forked tongue, UK will be back over the desk many times before the final curtain falls. The EU makes the Tories look principled.Richard_Nabavi said:
No changes to the withdrawal agreement is what they said.TGOHF said:arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/10644910252034375700 -
We are where we are. We have to make the logical decision based on what information we have now.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon. It's a much better place to be than the confused depths of May loyalism. For one thing, you don't have to silence that inner voice that keeps asking why, if this was always the best deal on offer, May spent the year running down the clock pretending she was going to get something else before capitulating. Because there are only two answers, and neither is particularly flattering: either she genuinely believed she'd get something better, in which case she's just as stupid as the ERG, or it was a deliberate tactic to get her deal through by forcing it to be a last minute take-it-or-leave-it offer, in which case she- not the ERG- is responsible for the high-stakes game of chicken we're in. And you don't have to forgive her for missteps- like the 2017 election- that led to her being unable to get her deal through parliament.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.
On that basis. May's deal IS currently the best option.0 -
Wait a minute wasn't this a "total capitulation" by the UK ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Fair enough, but 'want' is not 'gets'.TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1064491721776668672Richard_Nabavi said:
No changes to the withdrawal agreement is what they said.TGOHF said:arf - no changes are possible remember...
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/10644910252034375700 -
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So the problem with the last referendum was that it wasn't really clear what would happen about all kinds of important aspects if you chose it, and that vacuum was filled by dreamers and bullshitters (and to be fair to the leave side, by FUD). It's hard to see anyone making that mistake again.Sean_Fear said:
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.0 -
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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Specfically, the EU has said "no changes to the withdrawal agreement *for the UK*"
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.0 -
What I'm saying is that you can embrace support of May's deal without supporting May.Slackbladder said:
We are where we are. We have to make the logical decision based on what information we have now.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon. It's a much better place to be than the confused depths of May loyalism. For one thing, you don't have to silence that inner voice that keeps asking why, if this was always the best deal on offer, May spent the year running down the clock pretending she was going to get something else before capitulating. Because there are only two answers, and neither is particularly flattering: either she genuinely believed she'd get something better, in which case she's just as stupid as the ERG, or it was a deliberate tactic to get her deal through by forcing it to be a last minute take-it-or-leave-it offer, in which case she- not the ERG- is responsible for the high-stakes game of chicken we're in. And you don't have to forgive her for missteps- like the 2017 election- that led to her being unable to get her deal through parliament.
Another advantage is that you have whole new options open to you. For example- what happens if May gets no conferenced, and replaced with, say, Javid or Gove or Johnson? Well, they fail to get a better deal, the ERG's entire position is destroyed, a little fluff is added for some desperate face-saving, and the deal gets through parliament. Good result, as long as you haven't persuaded yourself that for some reason it has to be May herself who sees the deal through.
On that basis. May's deal IS currently the best option.0 -
One bit of good Brexit news today: no-one is talking about Boris's latest yawnfest in the Telegraph. Finally the law of diminishing returns seems to be kicking in, and I'm sure he'll hate the lack of attention.
And the Laurel and Hardy antics of the Rees Mogg Comedy Squad are as endearing as ever. Clearly no great strategy to go over the top as they did last week, and after making threats for so long, hard to see how they'll get taken as seriously again. They have the votes to torpedo the deal in the Meaningful Vote, and that's about it.0 -
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.Scott_P said:
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.0 -
Can you point to me where the EU has said this >grabcocque said:Specfically, the EU has said "no changes to the withdrawal agreement *for the UK*"
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.0 -
Here are some unlikely supporters of EUref2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuGd5UImJNE&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3bmmLk_6Zr1BNaL1dCCIfURSZq6UYB3_9TYm-4iRNSo7xMcmZYHvHN9Js0 -
Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.0
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BoZo's water cannon "sold for scrap" is a fitting metaphor for his career since picking the wrong side in the referendumtpfkar said:One bit of good Brexit news today: no-one is talking about Boris's latest yawnfest in the Telegraph. Finally the law of diminishing returns seems to be kicking in, and I'm sure he'll hate the lack of attention.
And the Laurel and Hardy antics of the Rees Mogg Comedy Squad are as endearing as ever. Clearly no great strategy to go over the top as they did last week, and after making threats for so long, hard to see how they'll get taken as seriously again. They have the votes to torpedo the deal in the Meaningful Vote, and that's about it.0 -
No love for my awesome Oklahoma pun. Where's ydoethur when you need him ?0
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I think you are confused.TOPPING said:
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
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Btw, she spells it with an e in her twitter handle so I think you're safe with it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Mark, Penny Mordaunt should succeed May. This would clearly be in the national interest.
On Floersch: should've been more precise, she said she was 'fine' but also 'going into surgery', so it sounds like she's injured but not in a life-changing/permanent way. Hope so, anyway. I avoided watching the video until I read that. It's a shade 1950s.
But if you want to be Flörschy with the umlaut (and you're on a PC) use the Alt code. You hold the Alt button and type 0246 on the right hand numeric keypad. Or Alt 0214 for a big Ö
Some more codes here https://usefulshortcuts.com/alt-codes/accents-alt-codes.php
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https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1064503767675092992
Yes, these people could negotiate a better Brexit...0 -
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Edmund fpt about elites. It may be that the elites write the manifestos but it is the proles that vote on them.edmundintokyo said:
So the problem with the last referendum was that it wasn't really clear what would happen about all kinds of important aspects if you chose it, and that vacuum was filled by dreamers and bullshitters (and to be fair to the leave side, by FUD). It's hard to see anyone making that mistake again.Sean_Fear said:
A two-option referendum would be a gerrymander.eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
If you have a referendum, it should simply be May's deal, Yes/No.
UKIP's 4m voters managed to make Dave include a promise in his manifesto so sometimes the little guy (albeit the little ex-commodity trading wearer of a too new dodgy velvet-collared covert coat guy) gets his way.0 -
Specfically, the EU has said "no changes to the withdrawal agreement *for the UK*"
The Spanish government wants changes too, and as they're not the UK, those changes are apparently being considered in good faith.
It really does indicate what a brutal one-sided farce this soi-disant "negotiation" truly represents.
Tory MPs allowed May to spend an entire year engaged in a slow-motion campaign of deception and capitulation. Quite why they allowed her to do this is anyone's guess.
But having been caught out, the jig is up. Parliament has one chance to put this right, and that means May and her deviously terrible little scheme to run down the clock and bounce the UK into accepting Olly Robbins's dismal anti-democratic outrage BRINO has to die, and her leadership with it.
Parliament has one chance to put a stop to May's sordid little schemes, and it looks like a chance it's going to take with relish.0 -
I think I'm generally in agreement as well. The Olympics are good for the elite; less so for those who have to pay for it.malcolmg said:
Agree and he was hell bent on a white elephant regardless. No problem to him as a multi - millionaire spending public money that could have been better used. Bozo is just another example that these people are happy to squander any amount on their pet projects purely to feed their over inflated ego's.Richard_Tyndall said:
Apart rom making everyone feel good for a little while is there any evidence that hosting an event like the Olympics actually benefits a country? Serious question rather than point scoring. Does the additional people doing sports, new infrastructure and short term additional GDP outweigh the costs? I am seeing no sign of it looking at other Olympic cities.malcolmg said:
Another Tory Tw** good at spending other people's money on self aggrandising projects.JosiasJessop said:
You might well be right.tlg86 said:
I blame Seb Coe for the Olympic Stadium.JosiasJessop said:
The stadium has been an absolute scandal. However IMO the main issue was that the stadium's legacy was not decided *before* it was built, leaving us with an expensive-to-maintain hot potato.matt said:
That's pretty tedious sniping even by your standards. Bicycles exist as a subsidised entity, as they do in many major urban areas, as part of the public transport network. They seem to be popular and empty stands are common. The Chinese-style free access bicycles failed in Manchester I recall. Perhaps we should close down commuter trains.
As for the stadium, the essential question is what should have happened? The idea of a stand-alone athletics stadium of that size is nonsense and the only sport which can support arenas of that size in the UK is soccer. Now, there may be a discussion on terms but it is clear that soccer teams are willing to finance their own grounds so it's not as if it is a no-choice discussion.
And I doubt that was Boris's fault, but Ken's mayoral regime and Labour, who initiated the Olympics project.
I would have hoped the lessons of the Millennium Dome's troubled first decade to have been learned, but apparently not.
I don't want to defend Boris totally: the Garden Bridge was a hideous idea, incredibly poorly and (IMO) corruptly implemented.
Then again, I think - comparatively - London 2012 was successful. It cost less than Beijing, with fewer human rights abuses, and it did help some regeneration. And it wasn't the clusterf*ck that Brazil was.0 -
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics0 -
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May said this is the only deal available and can't be changed.HYUFD said:
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics
Suspect most of Labour will abstain probably PC too.
Key vote and a turnout of 50%...
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The master tactician and brains behind the ERG has been revealed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Daa8ZnxC-0Y0 -
Then the markets crash and second vote and third if necessary after they crash again.TGOHF said:
May said this is the only deal available and can't be changed.HYUFD said:
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics
Suspect most of Labour will abstain probably PC too.
Key vote and a turnout of 50%...
If No Dealers want a war they will get one0 -
If the ERG had any realistic hope / plan, they would have had somebody of note resigning this morning and then some more throughout the day.0
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And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...0 -
All fart, no follow throughScott_P said:https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1064503767675092992
Yes, these people could negotiate a better Brexit...0 -
Spoken like a true fanaticHYUFD said:
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics0 -
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Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.0 -
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You realise, of course, that by keeping the focus on themselves and the Gang of Five within cabinet, the news cycle focuses entirely on the opposition to May's deal.
Whether it's intentional or not, the ERG are depriving May's deal of the oxygen of publicity it needs for people to start thinking of it as anything other than terrible and DOA.
Whether intentional or not, their shenanigans ensure the deal will not be able to escape from the epistemologically nebulous space of not yet dead.0 -
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What do you think I'm confused about?ralphmalph said:
I think you are confused.TOPPING said:
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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I see Cnutism remains the dominant political movement of the times. Uniting many Tories and the opposition parties, Right and Left agreeing to ignore all reality.
Vote Cnutism! The nation is safe in the hands of these Cnuts.0 -
Everybody agrees that what is agreed is worth nothing.Richard_Tyndall said:0 -
He probably went to Eton....Scrapheap_as_was said:The master tactician and brains behind the ERG has been revealed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Daa8ZnxC-0Y0 -
It is No Dealers who are fanatics trying to impose a No Deal Brexit barely a third of the country supports at huge economic cost and with the risk of Scotland voting for independence and a hard border in Ireland. As a result Remainers and many soft Brexiteers will fight them every step of the wayAmpfieldAndy said:
Spoken like a true fanaticHYUFD said:
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics0 -
They'll only believe that 'democracy doesn't work' if enough idiots tell them that.Richard_Tyndall said:
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
In reality. it would be democratic.
1) We had a vote.
2) The result was close.
3) A lot of time and effort has been spent getting a deal.
4) The deal has been rejected by the elected parliament.
In that scenario, it would be democratic to throw it back to the people in another referendum (though much would depend on the options given).
"How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying? "
Project Fear.0 -
China is not a fully integrated member of the single market or customs union so does not have a manufacturing sector set up as if it is.Xenon said:
Yes no countries that aren't in the EU have any manufacturing.SouthamObserver said:
Serious preparations for No Deal would have involved telling a lot of manufacturing businesses to mothball their UK operations and relocate to other countries.Xenon said:
These problems could have been solved by preparing for them. So basically no deal is a disaster because they were negligent. Or maybe they did prepare for it and aren't telling us (I refuse to believe even May could be that stupid)Richard_Nabavi said:
C'mon, it's been explained zillions of times. No deal (which is largely unrelated to whether we transition to WTO terms) means what it says. There would be no legal framework for flying aeroplanes, or selling agricultural products to the EU, or selling medicines to the EU, or unwinding trillions of euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even be able to trade without disruption to non-EU countries. By default there would also be economy-killing delays at Calais and probably therefore Dover.Xenon said:
I don't like the current deal and I definitely don't want to remain, so I'm leaning towards no deal.kle4 said:
That I don't think all of the no dealers have realised If they do and can accept that, well done. If they don't realise that they are perhaps going to be in for a big shock, though it is not certain yet. I wonder if they will look back more fondly on this Brexit deal if we remain, crap though it is.Dura_Ace said:
They also realise that if this drags on much longer they aren't going to get any Brexit at all.kle4 said:
I'll say this for no dealers - they presumably believe no deal is a good thing, and that is why they will vote down this or any deal.
Everyone says that it will be the end of the world, but no one seems to explain why exactly. We heard the exact same warnings if we even voted to leave or not join the Euro so I'm sceptical of claims like that.
Now, it may well be that faced with such unmitigated disaster for both sides, we could do a deal with the EU to get round these problems. But that is not 'no deal', it's a deal, and there's no reason to suppose it would look very different to the withdrawal deal on the table.
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.
Who has ever heard of anything made in China for example?
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That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.TOPPING said:
What do you think I'm confused about?ralphmalph said:
I think you are confused.TOPPING said:
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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Alternatively, he played a weak hand very well for nearly two and a half years, and has only now been found out.Stereotomy said:
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.Scott_P said:
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.0 -
And he isn't even Labour!ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
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And mine.Beverley_C said:
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.0 -
Uppingham.Beverley_C said:
He probably went to Eton....Scrapheap_as_was said:The master tactician and brains behind the ERG has been revealed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Daa8ZnxC-0Y
Oh, you mean Melchett. Wellington as likely.0 -
A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.0
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Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?0 -
They've already started killing people. Realistically there's no practical option that avoids a betrayal narrative from Leave enthusiasts, and inevitably that's going to result in more terrorism.Richard_Tyndall said:
And the real chaos ensues. There is no way that the win for Remain would be anything more than marginal - 52/48 the other way at best. So you then have something in the order of 16 million people who have been told that democracy no longer works and there is no point using the normal democratic process to get what you want. How many of those do you think it takes before people start dying?eek said:
The more I look at it the more I see a referendum coming with 2 options:-Scrapheap_as_was said:
So it might be december now....rottenborough said:It's getting utterly pathetic now:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1064477588444327936
If it's such an almighty struggle to get to just 48 people out of 300+ MPs... is there not a clue there to these people? Perhaps they might also read Fabricant's piece on his thinking....
1) May's deal
2) Remain
and I suspect Remain will squeak it...
I'm not saying appeasement *never* works, but I don't see how it works here.0 -
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Ah it was Xenon. Soz.ralphmalph said:
That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.TOPPING said:
What do you think I'm confused about?ralphmalph said:
I think you are confused.TOPPING said:
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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Well, obviously.Scott_P said:
Business doesn't care how bad the deal is, but uncertainty is bad for their wallets. And they like being rich, so...0 -
You're quite correct, a Mogg premiership, supported by Johnson and Davis, would have the Conservatives on 60%. Are you on drugs?AmpfieldAndy said:May and her supporters are so inept in office that they helping to keep Corbyn’s Labour within touching distance of power. When are people going to realise that ditching May and replacing her with someone who has relevant policies, political charisma and can properly articulate an argument without being restricted to a sounbite or a speech written by someone else is the only way to see off Corbyn.
All this negative politics about the alternative being Corbyn didn’t work in the last election and it won’t work in the next one.0 -
Fortunately, we don’t make changes of Gov or formulate policy on transitory polls of dubious accuracy. We base them on elections. The criticism levelled at May’s deal bythe ERG are perfectly valid. Whatthe ERG have failed to do is to formulate a credible alternative but to say we need May’s deal because of that is risible. I don’t think a no deal is ideal but it is infinitely preferable to May’s deal. No Brexit is not my preferred choice but it is better than May’s deal.HYUFD said:
It is No Dealers who are fanatics trying to impose a Brexit barely a third if the country supports at huge economic cost and with the risk of Scotland voting for independence and a hard border in Ireland. As a result Remainers and many soft Brexiteers will fight them every step of the wayAmpfieldAndy said:
Spoken like a true fanaticHYUFD said:
Nope May will try again while many of us will switch to backing EUref2.TGOHF said:
Well there we go - no deal it is.ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
We will fight and fight and fight again No Deal fanatics0 -
Well, the hand I meant was being in the situation of opposing a deal that looks not to have the numbers in parliament to pass. All Mogg & co. have to do is keep pressure on the deal and avoid the whips peeling people off. Embarrassing themselves with a failed coup (as they appear to be in the process of doing) can only hurt that.OblitusSumMe said:
Alternatively, he played a weak hand very well for nearly two and a half years, and has only now been found out.Stereotomy said:
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.Scott_P said:
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.
As to your point, it depends whether the threat of a vonc has actually been influencing May much up until now, which I'm unsure of. Certainly early on in the Brexit process May gave far too much ground to Leavers, but I think that's thanks to Nick Timothy, not Mogg.0 -
Indeed we are. I feel our politicians should be first against the wall when the revolution comesPeter_the_Punter said:
And mine.Beverley_C said:
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.
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That's an argument against the first one...kinabalu said:A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.
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and Chukka is now is he? Things do move fast....dixiedean said:
And he isn't even Labour!ralphmalph said:Chukka on Politics Live saying he would be surprised if any Labour MP voted for the deal. Only possibility he thinks is Frank Field.
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HYUFD said:
Business backing for May's Deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.0 -
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.grabcocque said:Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?0 -
Who the heck is Penny Mordaunt? The name keeps cropping up, but there never seems to be a person attached. Does she exist?Scott_P said:0 -
Momentum has more than proven capable of moving swiftly against MPs that betray the leadership.Stereotomy said:
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.grabcocque said:Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
You're asking Labour MPs to, en masse, risk ending their political careers to save a Tory PM, and a deal they almost certainly hate, and to end the opportunity to get a people's vote or a general election.
For a Labour MP to do that would be, frankly, insane beyond redemption.0 -
Scott_P said:
Do they still want to get rid of the Pound and join the Euro?0 -
No deal won't be allowed on the ballot paper.Nemtynakht said:
Personally I think we should have EUref3 when “no deal” wins.Slackbladder said:
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.HYUFD said:
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.Slackbladder said:
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.Xenon said:
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.kle4 said:
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?Xenon said:
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.Xenon said:
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
They'll keep us in by hook or by crook.0 -
Just reading this about Haig:
'As a result of his determination to accomplish great victories Haig too often disregarded key factors such as weather, and the condition of the battlefield, placed his objectives beyond the range which his artillery could cover and incorporated in his schemes a role for cavalry which this arm was helpless to accomplish. These shortcomings, it needs to be stressed, were not at all peculiar to Haig. ... But the outcome, too often, was British operations directed towards unrealizable objectives and persisted in long after they had ceased to serve any worthwhile purpose. The consequence was excessive loss of British lives, insubstantial accomplishment, and waning morale.'
Remind you of anything happening at the moment??0 -
GoodXenon said:
No deal won't be allowed on the ballot paper.Nemtynakht said:
Personally I think we should have EUref3 when “no deal” wins.Slackbladder said:
Exactly. As a tory voter I would then utterly support that too. Not my ideal outcome (that would be a sensible leave deal), but more sensible than the chaos of no-deal.HYUFD said:
I will instantly switch to pushing EUref2 if May's Deal is voted down as will many Tory MPs and I suspect most of the Commons and quite likely ultimately May herself.Slackbladder said:
No they won't. There is no majority in the house for that. As soon as May falls, a good proportion of the Consverative Party will push to block exactly that, and potentially push for an extention and a referendum.Xenon said:
Outmaneuvered? You mean being completely lied to repeatedly to run down the clock so it means we can't actually leave the EU in anything but name.kle4 said:
So...even if it is a disaster and the alternative is not, we should choose disaster because the people framing the choice for the alternative outmaneuvered the other side and that's not fair?Xenon said:
So it looks to Brexiteers that they are trying to bounce us into a crap deal by purposely by making the alternative impossible. And I'm right behind them not standing for it.Richard_Nabavi said:
C'mon, i euros worth of derivative contracts, and we wouldn't even awal deal on the table.Xenon said:
If one doesn't think the other option is non-disaster that is different.
The alternative is to get rid of her and start preparing for no deal now, whilst trying to get an extension to the leaving date.
This deal won't get through parliament, so they need to do this anyway.
If the ERG end up with EUref2 and Remain they have nobody to blame but themselves
They'll keep us in by hook or by crook.0 -
Allow me to load the rifles...…Beverley_C said:
Indeed we are. I feel our politicians should be first against the wall when the revolution comesPeter_the_Punter said:
And mine.Beverley_C said:
Perhaps they think that if they keep pushing the party lines then the rest of us will accept fantasy as reality and march arm-in-arm into a rosy future whilst they, the faithful, are rewarded by the party for pulling the wool over the eyes of the gullible.Stereotomy said:I really think that supporters of the deal here on pb should join me in my "pox on both their houses" saloon.
My cynicism seems to have increased markedly in the last few weeks.
Whilst I retain small hopes for a return to Remain, it is only in accordance with the betting adage that when in a hole it is best to stop digging. It wouldn't actually makes things better, it would just stop them from getting worse.
We really are watching a slow-motion train crash.
They are not the only culpable ones. I'd have Juncker and allies in the second batch for extermination, and many other groups and individuals to follow, but the part played by the Conservative has to be the most culpable.
It has to be the most chronic example of political and administrative incompetence we have seen in this country since Lord North and pals lost the Colonies.
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Yes big business always have the best interests of the population at heart. They'd never sell us out for a few more quid.AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:Business backing for May's Deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.0 -
The Alliance of British Entrepreneurs was set up to oppose Chequers, their opposition to the deal was almost definitional.AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:Business backing for May's Deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.0 -
Does anyone remember the 'Resignation a Day' the ERG was promising a month or so back? Do they actually believe this stuff, or is it some kind of psychological ploy intended to destabilise and intimidate?0
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No probs.TOPPING said:
Ah it was Xenon. Soz.ralphmalph said:
That I said the EU would be putting up border posts.TOPPING said:
What do you think I'm confused about?ralphmalph said:
I think you are confused.TOPPING said:
You said that it would be the EU putting up the border posts, not us. I then said it would be neither but might be the WTO and then you brought the chunnel into it. I was talking about a hard border in NI.ralphmalph said:This is a different argument to which I responded.
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They are famous for abstainingTGOHF said:0 -
The ERG has told us that they can renegotiate a deal, in so doing legitimising Lab's vote against the deal on the premise that they could negotiate a better one. The ERG has provided Lab a backstop for the vote.grabcocque said:
Momentum has more than proven capable of moving swiftly against MPs that betray the leadership.Stereotomy said:
There's still the chance of them abstaining. There's no indication that they will, but something about the idea of Labour holding their nerve en masse just seems hard to imagine.grabcocque said:Any Labour MP who backs May's deal will be deselected faster than the time it takes their ass to hit the pavement outside their constituency party office.
The only Labour MPs who would even consider it are those that are retiring or have already been deselected.
And Kate Hoey already said she's opposed.
Which leaves, what, around 2 MPs?
You're asking Labour MPs to, en masse, risk ending their political careers to save a Tory PM, and a deal they almost certainly hate, and to end the opportunity to get a people's vote or a general election.
For a Labour MP to do that would be, frankly, insane beyond redemption.0 -
The CBI is rabidly Eurofederalist.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The Alliance of British Entrepreneurs was set up to oppose Chequers, their opposition to the deal was almost definitional.AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:Business backing for May's Deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.
Their support for a deceptive capitulation to a vassal state BRINO deal was almost definitional.0 -
Every such statement must now be taken as trying to "make the ERG big" the same way you'd fight a black bear. In other words, trying to convince said bear you're far more of a threat than you are.Stark_Dawning said:Does anyone remember the 'Resignation a Day' the ERG was promising a month or so back? Do they actually believe this stuff, or is it some kind of psychological ploy intended to destabilise and intimidate?
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The people in the first one knew what they were voting for - less immigrants in the C-E demographics taking their jobs...Scott_P said:
That's an argument against the first one...kinabalu said:A referendum on the deal can only be effective if the vast majority of those who participate in it understand the thing they are voting on. Which they won't. So add this to the (long) list of reasons why a 2nd ref is a terrible idea.
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Are big business and the CBI joining the ranks of traitors and saboteurs (Which now includes May herself) today ?
@AlastairMeeks Was not wrong when he said to buy shares in betrayal.0 -
That is possible but I doubt it. If you're right, it won't just be that there's no VONC but May's deal will go through - which seems highly unlikely. The ERG seem to be about to wreck the chances of a WA. That has been their aim for a long time. If they achieve WTO they will have won.OblitusSumMe said:
Alternatively, he played a weak hand very well for nearly two and a half years, and has only now been found out.Stereotomy said:
Not as silly as they'll look if they give her a free pass to stay in for a year.Scott_P said:
It's incredible how badly Mogg played a strong hand.
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Yes, the CBI are not the marginal voters either.grabcocque said:
The CBI is rabidly Eurofederalist.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The Alliance of British Entrepreneurs was set up to oppose Chequers, their opposition to the deal was almost definitional.AmpfieldAndy said:HYUFD said:Business backing for May's Deal
https://mobile.twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1064503996252151808
200 business leaders signed a letter against May’s deal last week.
Their support for a deceptive capitulation to a vassal state BRINO deal was almost definitional.
The BCC haven't commented and that will be a much bigger step towards "business" being in favour (or not).
Although the FSB may have a view in practice it is more dominated by people as people.
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"Rabidly eurofederalist organisation supports Tories' humiliating capitulation to the EU" shouldn't really be considered news.0
