politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot pa

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.

After his plan of negotiating a trade deal with Germany failed, he now wants to negotiate one with Oklahoma.

https://twitter.com/owenpaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=21

Jesus wept.

Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?

Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.

It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.

Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.

He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy

May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.

Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed

Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.

She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.

I think her real downfall is worse than than a tin ear - she goes behind peoples' backs and actively undermines them. It's the story of Brexit. People have a post, then discover she has agreed to something that comes out of the blue. Which might be fine, if everybody else in her party wasn't going "WTF???" at the stuff she concedes.

She does seem to lack trust in Davis and Raab. On the basis of what we’ve seen I can’t say I blame her.

.

alex. said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

I think if there is. VonC and May wins then all options are on the table. At that point she can only be removed by the House of Commons, and it gives her free reign to work outside of party boundaries to gain a majority do whatever is needed to avert national disaster.

She can still be removed by mass cabinet resignations

No she can’t. It is a basic fundamental of the U.K. system that the PM serves on the basis of the confidence of the House of Commons. Check out 1929 if you don’t believe me.

If her cabinet deserts her she would have to stand down but of course I do not expect that to happen

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Corbyn turns out to be the most cynical politician of them all.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if:
1) the deal reaches the Commons
2) it's defeated
3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum

That is exactly how I see it playing out, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP and Greens will all be in favour by that point as well. She has started to hint that that is what she will do. I think she will delight in p*ssing on the ERG's chips at that point and who could blame her.

Based on May's answer about Graham Brady I'd say the letters are in.

Pulpstar said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if:
1) the deal reaches the Commons
2) it's defeated
3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum

I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.

Not if she has survived the VONC by then. Actually I think a majority of sensible Tories would back her at that point even if she hasn't.

Corbyn is still sticking to the line that Labour’s six tests are a reasonable policy “because they are based on the promises the Govt made”. Because apparently the test of what is achievable is what the Government promises...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

I think if there is. VonC and May wins then all options are on the table. At that point she can only be removed by the House of Commons, and it gives her free reign to work outside of party boundaries to gain a majority do whatever is needed to avert national disaster.

She can still be removed by mass cabinet resignations

No she can’t. It is a basic fundamental of the U.K. system that the PM serves on the basis of the confidence of the House of Commons. Check out 1929 if you don’t believe me.

If her cabinet deserts her she would have to stand down but of course I do not expect that to happen

No she wouldn't. She would simply replace them with a new cabinet. In theory she could even lose a VONC in her own party and hence lose the leadership and still remain PM if by some strange quirk she could get the 326 votes (plus and minus for absentees) that she needed in Parliament.

TGOHF said:

El_Capitano said:

The online Spectator is still leading with the Steerpike piece, burying the Downing Street rebuttal downpage. Is Andrew Neill still Spectator chairman?

Have you read the "rebuttal" ? It mainly consists of a few "ah but we have to" and "that's only for the transition period (that we can't leave without permission)".

If anything the rebuttal is scarier than the original list.

Er, the transition period is something that WE wanted. It is the quid pro quo for the negatives in the withdrawal agreement, payments etc, and essentially retains the EU status quo whilst be prepare for full departure. The transition period automatically ends on March 31 2021 (although we have unilateral right to extend by six months). Then the backstop kicks in, should no alternative deal have been reached.

daodao said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Corbyn turns out to be the most cynical politician of them all.

Until the questions are set, Corbyn gave the most appropriate answer.

Having followed up the news item, I agree his comments were taken out of context and I was responding to those.

Nevertheless Corbyn's approach to Brexit remains highly cynical. He will just let disorder and inaction achieve what he wants - an exit - against the wishes of his party. He's dishonest in other respects - that wreath business for example. Meanwhile he and his supporters claim be is a breath of fresh air compared with other politicians.

TGOHF said:

El_Capitano said:

The online Spectator is still leading with the Steerpike piece, burying the Downing Street rebuttal downpage. Is Andrew Neill still Spectator chairman?

Have you read the "rebuttal" ? It mainly consists of a few "ah but we have to" and "that's only for the transition period (that we can't leave without permission)".

If anything the rebuttal is scarier than the original list.

Yes I have read it, and the original list, and I thought the rebuttal was right and some of the original list were truly ludicrous. I spent some time on here last night going thru some of them,

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

Box ticking only. Deal doesn’t really achieve anything. It is EU membership without democratic participation. Less control.

NickPalmer said:

Dura_Ace said:

Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.

...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.

My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?

Yes, I think Javid would make a superb PM. So would Gove or Hunt, not that they’d be popular.

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.

Toxic to the Tories I think you mean, a sane brexiy probably could have got over the line if the Conservatives had rowed in behind May. Now we will either have no deal or no Brexit. All paths lead to Corbyn from here.

The stupidity is absolutely astounding.

It will lead to destruction of their own dream.

TGOHF said:

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.

After his plan of negotiating a trade deal with Germany failed, he now wants to negotiate one with Oklahoma.

https://twitter.com/owenpaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=21

Jesus wept.

Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?

Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.

It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.

Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.

He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy

May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.

Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed

Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.

She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.

I think her real downfall is worse than than a tin ear - she goes behind peoples' backs and actively undermines them. It's the story of Brexit. People have a post, then discover she has agreed to something that comes out of the blue. Which might be fine, if everybody else in her party wasn't going "WTF???" at the stuff she concedes.

She does seem to lack trust in Davis and Raab. On the basis of what we’ve seen I can’t say I blame her.

She has to go - she is simply not up to the job.

Who is?

The PM.

Make your mind up!

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

Box ticking only. Deal doesn’t really achieve anything. It is EU membership without democratic participation. Less control.

No, it isn’t. That summary is just as inaccurate as the headbangers state.

Read it, and the future political declaration too.

FF43 said:

daodao said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Corbyn turns out to be the most cynical politician of them all.

Until the questions are set, Corbyn gave the most appropriate answer.

Having followed up the news item, I agree his comments were taken out of context and I was responding to those.

Nevertheless Corbyn's approach to Brexit remains highly cynical. He will just let disorder and inaction achieve what he wants - an exit - against the wishes of his party. He's dishonest in other respects - that wreath business for example. Meanwhile he and his supporters claim be is a breath of fresh air compared with other politicians.

One of his first objections was to the limit of state aid in the deal. Says it all really, this deal or remain puts him in a straightjacket

He is as much an ultra brexiteer as any in ERG

SouthamObserver said:

Buccaneering Brexiteer latest ...
* Dominic Raab has discovered Britain is an island off the coast of France.
* Nadine Dorries has learned leaving the EU means having no MEPs
* David Davis and Owen Paterson have tried to negotiate a trade deal with Oklahoma.

As anger at the ERG and fellow loonies turns to mirth I think it's safe to say a No Deal Brexit is not going to happen.

GIN1138 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Jezza's been for LEAVE for 40 years. We know how he'd vote!

So he's a duplicitous bastard as Gen Haig would have said.

TGOHF said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.

He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy

May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.

Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed

Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.

She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.

I think her real downfall is worse than than a tin ear - she goes behind peoples' backs and actively undermines them. It's the story of Brexit. People have a post, then discover she has agreed to something that comes out of the blue. Which might be fine, if everybody else in her party wasn't going "WTF???" at the stuff she concedes.

She does seem to lack trust in Davis and Raab. On the basis of what we’ve seen I can’t say I blame her.

She's either spectacularly failed at getting a reasonable deal or spectacularly failed at selling the deal to her own party, the opposition and the nation.

Or more likely both.

She has to go - she is simply not up to the job.

She is more up to the job than any of the “extremist ninnies” (copyright: Alistair Meeks) who might replace her.

At what point, I wonder, will it dawn on the Tories that the EU deal is a final offer and they couldn’t care less about the psychodramas that intellectually challenged Tory or Labour politicians are going through?

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

It is a very bad deal and I will never forgive May for getting us to this point. I certainly won't be voting for her at the next GE. But because of the risk of her engineering a Remain/No Deal vote if this falls and the risk of Remain winning that, I very reluctantly agree with you.

May never understood Brexit. She didn't vote for it and, with all her other myriad faults, she was the worst person to be in charge these last 2 years. That is why this deal is so bad. But it is what we have for now so I would support it over the risk of Remain, which I genuinely believe would bring about a collapse in our democracy and decades of strife in this country.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

It is a very bad deal and I will never forgive May for getting us to this point. I certainly won't be voting for her at the next GE. But because of the risk of her engineering a Remain/No Deal vote if this falls and the risk of Remain winning that, I very reluctantly agree with you.

May never understood Brexit. She didn't vote for it and, with all her other myriad faults, she was the worst person to be in charge these last 2 years. That is why this deal is so bad. But it is what we have for now so I would support it over the risk of Remain, which I genuinely believe would bring about a collapse in our democracy and decades of strife in this country.

I don't see why you have a problem with it. It doesn't preclude Norway as the long term relationship.

YBarddCwsc said:

Nemtynakht said:

murali_s said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.

After his plan of negotiating a trade deal with Germany failed, he now wants to negotiate one with Oklahoma.

https://twitter.com/owenpaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=21

LOL! What a bunch of tools!

How is Owen "full of sh*t" Patterson still an MP? The man is mad and stupid!

I don’t agree with the lot that we should leave. Cleaerly on the current options we should remain. However the Brexit bunch were accused of not having a plan earlier in the week - now they do some work on one and they are all morons. I don’t agree with them but it’s a bit disingenuous.

I just think we should all be more civil about it. The main warranted criticism of leave was that they were not prepared. Now at the start that was due to Cameron using the civil service for remain and more recently May has run a shadow Dexeu from number 10. Now they need to put forward concrete proposals on the opportunity for no deal.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Based on May's answer about Graham Brady I'd say the letters are in.

Opinion by paper reviewers on Marr is they haven't even though two more names have been added this week making it 25. Tom Newton Dunn doubts it is 40 yet, 8 short

It was agreed that if the ERG do not achieve the vnoc they will be marginalised

Depends - if the Cons continue to plummet in the polls then wavering MPs may tip the scales.

No time to monitor polls. It is now a question of credibility for ERG

Why should we care about ERG? Country shouldn't be held to ransom by these loons.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

It is a very bad deal and I will never forgive May for getting us to this point. I certainly won't be voting for her at the next GE. But because of the risk of her engineering a Remain/No Deal vote if this falls and the risk of Remain winning that, I very reluctantly agree with you.

May never understood Brexit. She didn't vote for it and, with all her other myriad faults, she was the worst person to be in charge these last 2 years. That is why this deal is so bad. But it is what we have for now so I would support it over the risk of Remain, which I genuinely believe would bring about a collapse in our democracy and decades of strife in this country.

I don't see why you have a problem with it. It doesn't preclude Norway as the long term relationship.

Wasn’t it Richard Nabavi in favour of Norway? Of course she does understand Brexit - no FOM, no CAP, CFP, no contributions.

Just that’s not the long term Brexiteers Brexit, they just exploited those to win the vote.

Cyclefree said:

TGOHF said:

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

alex. said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.

He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy

May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.

Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed

Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.

She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.

I think her real downfall is worse than than a tin ear - she goes behind peoples' backs and actively undermines them. It's the story of Brexit. People have a post, then discover she has agreed to something that comes out of the blue. Which might be fine, if everybody else in her party wasn't going "WTF???" at the stuff she concedes.

She does seem to lack trust in Davis and Raab. On the basis of what we’ve seen I can’t say I blame her.

She's either spectacularly failed at getting a reasonable deal or spectacularly failed at selling the deal to her own party, the opposition and the nation.

Or more likely both.

She has to go - she is simply not up to the job.

She is more up to the job than any of the “extremist ninnies” (copyright: Alistair Meeks) who might replace her.

At what point, I wonder, will it dawn on the Tories that the EU deal is a final offer and they couldn’t care less about the psychodramas that intellectually challenged Tory or Labour politicians are going through?

If I may bang on about one of my repeated themes (I have so many of them at this point it's becoming a body of work), many of the people involved in the psychodrama are very wealthy or actively malevolent and can afford to ignore the facts ad absurdum

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

daodao said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Corbyn turns out to be the most cynical politician of them all.

Until the questions are set, Corbyn gave the most appropriate answer.

Having followed up the news item, I agree his comments were taken out of context and I was responding to those.

Nevertheless Corbyn's approach to Brexit remains highly cynical. He will just let disorder and inaction achieve what he wants - an exit - against the wishes of his party. He's dishonest in other respects - that wreath business for example. Meanwhile he and his supporters claim be is a breath of fresh air compared with other politicians.

One of his first objections was to the limit of state aid in the deal. Says it all really, this deal or remain puts him in a straightjacket

He is as much an ultra brexiteer as any in ERG

This is probably a good summary of Corbynite thinking on it:
https://twitter.com/graceblakeley/status/1063396631448600577

What she is essentially advocating is No Deal. Like the moon-howlers on the hard right, those on the far left are completely removed from the consequences of a No Deal. They see ordinary people, their families and communities as collateral, nothing more. It is utterly contemptible.

alex. said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

It is a very bad deal and I will never forgive May for getting us to this point. I certainly won't be voting for her at the next GE. But because of the risk of her engineering a Remain/No Deal vote if this falls and the risk of Remain winning that, I very reluctantly agree with you.

May never understood Brexit. She didn't vote for it and, with all her other myriad faults, she was the worst person to be in charge these last 2 years. That is why this deal is so bad. But it is what we have for now so I would support it over the risk of Remain, which I genuinely believe would bring about a collapse in our democracy and decades of strife in this country.

I don't see why you have a problem with it. It doesn't preclude Norway as the long term relationship.

Wasn’t it Richard Nabavi in favour of Norway? Of course she does understand Brexit - no FOM, no CAP, CFP, no contributions.

Just that’s not the long term Brexiteers Brexit, they just exploited those to win the vote.

No, Richard N was for Remain. I have long advocated Norway.

tlg86 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Bet Marr is upset TM and Corbyn gave interviews with Sophy Ridge on Sky and he is left with Raab, Chakrabarti and Sturgeon

Whoever made the decision to move Marr to 10am should have resigned last night.

No Marr is better than a bad Marr.

Mildly amused by the nonsense in Oklahoma... but the surprise for me is that Oklahoma is able to enter into free trade agreements with other countries. In a minute I’m going to look at the WTO site to study Oklahoma’s default, most favoured nation, trade tariffs and work out an early negotiating strategy for Fox and his team.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

There is nothing in this deal for me. Nothing.

Remain offers more democratic control and a stronger economy. I want a second vote. Remain is possible. No deal is not inevitable.

Brexiteers should read and note this.

Those rejecting the deal are the ultra-Remainers useful idiots.

I have lost faith in any of this. There is no good Brexit,Brexiteers are incompetent bufffoons pissing about in Oklahoma. The deal is an over complex technocratic fudge with a massive democratic deficit.

I am not an ultra remainer. I am someone in despair. There is no good here. None at all.

MaxPB said:

edmundintokyo said:

Not saying it's likely, but:

1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year
2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did)
3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain
4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"

Step 5 - Theresa uses step 4 to get enough headbangers and labour leavers in line, the bill passes.

Yup, as long as the ERG are sensible, cold-headed rational actors they'll fall in line and there won't be a referendum.

As mentioned on Marr too the Sunday Express this morning is reporting Boris and Davis are in talks to see who should run if May goes.

Mogg is apparently ready to back Boris in return for being made Chancellor, while Steve Baker another ERG big beast will also get a Cabinet job. Davis is though also intending to run with the likely support of Raab.

Gove is being lined up as a compromise in favour of 'the Norway EEA option' and staying in the single market and the customs union as well. Rudd, Morgan and Boles may back Gove but Philip Lee and Justine Greening could also run on an EUref2, pro Remain and 'reverse Brexit' ticket.


Allies of May suggest if her Deal is rejected she may propose permanent Customs Union membership to get Labour support.


The 48 letters figure is expected to be reached tomorrow now with a no confidence vote potentially as early as next week



https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1046795/brexit-news-theresa-may-confidence-vote-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-david-davis

Thought provoking article on the Guardian site. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/brexit-delusional-conmen-britain-never-never-land-eu
Sub-heading is:Looking to our past for guidance is a big mistake – we’re no longer the nation of the Second World War or Suez

The first paragraph is, I suggest, worthy of thought.
After 40 years in the EEC/EU, the economy has changed radically again. London is where world capitalism does business, no longer one where British capitalism did the world’s business, as before 1914. Foreign capitalists own the infrastructures and factories of the UK, rather than the other way around. The world owed the British rich a living – they now depend on the capital of foreigners. Politics have changed radically, too. The Conservatives were once the party aiming and failing to create a common market of the British empire. Yet in government at the head of the largest and most efficient economy in Europe, they turned decisively in 1961 into the party that applied for accession to the Common Market, having failed to get the EEC even then to budge an inch on its policies. Labour was the party of economic nationalism and of most anti-marketeers. Since then those positions have reversed.

Bang

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FF43 said:

daodao said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Don’t worry Jeremy, the rest of us do know how you’d vote....

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20

Corbyn turns out to be the most cynical politician of them all.

Until the questions are set, Corbyn gave the most appropriate answer.

Having followed up the news item, I agree his comments were taken out of context and I was responding to those.

Nevertheless Corbyn's approach to Brexit remains highly cynical. He will just let disorder and inaction achieve what he wants - an exit - against the wishes of his party. He's dishonest in other respects - that wreath business for example. Meanwhile he and his supporters claim be is a breath of fresh air compared with other politicians.

One of his first objections was to the limit of state aid in the deal. Says it all really, this deal or remain puts him in a straightjacket

He is as much an ultra brexiteer as any in ERG

This is probably a good summary of Corbynite thinking on it:
https://twitter.com/graceblakeley/status/1063396631448600577

Corbyn, the ERG and quite a lot of thick Tories are for no deal. All for their own stupid and/or malicious reasons, none of which have the interests of voters as their first priority.

edmundintokyo said:

MaxPB said:

edmundintokyo said:

Not saying it's likely, but:

1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year
2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did)
3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain
4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"

Step 5 - Theresa uses step 4 to get enough headbangers and labour leavers in line, the bill passes.

Yup, as long as the ERG are sensible, cold-headed rational actors they'll fall in line and there won't be a referendum.

Sensible, cold headed and rational are not adjectives that would normally be used to describe the ERG. Idiotic angry cultists might perhaps be more appropriate.

Rexel56 said:

Mildly amused by the nonsense in Oklahoma... but the surprise for me is that Oklahoma is able to enter into free trade agreements with other countries. In a minute I’m going to look at the WTO site to study Oklahoma’s default, most favoured nation, trade tariffs and work out an early negotiating strategy for Fox and his team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbrnXl2gO_k

https://twitter.com/alstewitn/status/1064107832537169920

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

OK. On this site, I've mentioned that Switzerland and the EU/EC/EEC had constantly renegotiated their relationship since the initial free trade agreement was signed in 1972.

I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.

I would like to apologise.

In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.

* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.

Any sensible Leaver must support the Deal, or we won’t be leaving at all.

It is a very bad deal and I will never forgive May for getting us to this point. I certainly won't be voting for her at the next GE. But because of the risk of her engineering a Remain/No Deal vote if this falls and the risk of Remain winning that, I very reluctantly agree with you.

May never understood Brexit. She didn't vote for it and, with all her other myriad faults, she was the worst person to be in charge these last 2 years. That is why this deal is so bad. But it is what we have for now so I would support it over the risk of Remain, which I genuinely believe would bring about a collapse in our democracy and decades of strife in this country.

I don't see why you have a problem with it. It doesn't preclude Norway as the long term relationship.

Norway is not in the customs union. This is a long way worse than Norway, which is what we should have gone for at the very start. I can support the deal because it is not a complete disaster and because it does get us outside the main institutions of the EU. But it is a sow's ear for sure.

Would there ever have been a majority for Norway ?
Certainly not among the Tories, and a large percentage of Leavers would have rejected it.

While I agree that Norway would be a desirable Brexit outcome, I think those who voted leave thinking it possible were deluding themselves.

Richard_Tyndall said:

swing_voter said:

HYUFD said:

As mentioned on Marr too the Sunday Express this morning is reporting Boris and Davis are in talks to see who should run if May goes.

Mogg is apparently ready to back Boris in return for being made Chancellor, while Steve Baker another ERG big beast will also get a Cabinet job. Davis is though also intending to run with the likely support of Raab.

Gove is being lined up as a compromise in favour of 'the Norway EEA option' and staying in the single market and the customs union as well. Rudd, Morgan and Boles may back Gove but Philip Lee and Justine Greening could also run on a pro Remain and 'reverse Brexit' ticket.


Allies of May suggest if her Deal is rejected she may propose permanent Customs Union membership to get Labour support.


The 48 letters figure is expected to be reached tomorrow now with a no confidence vote potentially as early as next week



https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1046795/brexit-news-theresa-may-confidence-vote-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-david-davis

is this the best they can do

to think that the Conservative party used to have a reputation for ruthlessness with its leaders when the time has come............

The rules have changed and the risks involved are now far higher than they were in the past. A failure leaves May untouchable and able to do what she wants policy wise for the next year. Given that the ERG aim is to get rid of the policy not the person, they have to be a lot more cautious about strengthening May's hand.

Do you personally claim much if any alignment with where the ERG want to apparently go on Brexit?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

There is nothing in this deal for me. Nothing.

Remain offers more democratic control and a stronger economy. I want a second vote. Remain is possible. No deal is not inevitable.

Brexiteers should read and note this.

Those rejecting the deal are the ultra-Remainers useful idiots.

I have lost faith in any of this. There is no good Brexit,Brexiteers are incompetent bufffoons pissing about in Oklahoma. The deal is an over complex technocratic fudge with a massive democratic deficit.

I am not an ultra remainer. I am someone in despair. There is no good here. None at all.

Sorry Jonathan but you have been a Remainer from the very start. To try and claim you have 'lost faith' now is more than a mite disingenuous.

Not quite. I voted remain on the basis that the EU was more reformable than Westminster/Whitehall. I stand by that.

Having lost, as a democrat I was fully prepared to accept a new direction. Weirdly for democratic reasons I am more attracted to the more independent version of Brexit if that could be made to work economically.

What I cannot accept is the current utter chaos and incompetence. I also cannot accept a situation where the EU gets to vote on our laws and we don’t and a deal tha potentially we cannot escape. One day in an extreme unlikely scenario , God forbid, AFD and FN could run Europe and under some scenarios talked about today we could do nothing. At least in the EU we can leave unilaterally.

In the light of all this. We are better off back in. We need a vote to do it and should make arrangements now.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

There is nothing in this deal for me. Nothing.

Remain offers more democratic control and a stronger economy. I want a second vote. Remain is possible. No deal is not inevitable.

Brexiteers should read and note this.

Those rejecting the deal are the ultra-Remainers useful idiots.

It's over. The T-34s are grinding down the Unter den Linden.

Nigelb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Raab on Marr - Boris is not an ally and I support TM and will not be submitting a letter. Warfare in ERG

More like fission in the Tory party.
Are they bent on self-destruction ?

Raab positioning towards the centre and attacking Boris does him no harm

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Raab on Marr - Boris is not an ally and I support TM and will not be submitting a letter. Warfare in ERG

Raab is apparently backing Davis not Boris in the Express report. He also made clear he will vote against the Deal