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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot pa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election
Since the current Tory leadership rules were first used in 2001 the highest number of candidates to be on the first ballot paper is five, in 2001 and 2016, so I can see why people may wish to back the 8/15 on there being fewer 7 candidates, however I think the value is betting on there being 7 or more candidates next time in this market by William Hill.
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7 seems huge, factions will select preferred candidates
Or afterwards either. What is there to unite the ERG "morons" (Telegraph) or "lemmings" (Daily Mail) with the rest of the party on planet Earth?
I know (as with Labour) the party is a 'broad church" but this lot are sitting in the graveyard.....
Surely the question is whether - on the balance of probabilities - what the best option out of Leave Without A Deal, Remain and this Deal is. (Or perhaps, a ranking.)
I don't like the idea that Eurocrats pensions appear to be tax free. However, I also appreciate that British civil servants who were seconded to Brussels will have considered the tax free nature of the pensions as part of their package. (And I'm sure the same is true for those who take secondments to NATO or the UN.) Changing the terms after they've been agreed is not something I'm particularly keen on. But you know what: if it was a perfect deal, and Eurocrats kept their pensions (or lost them), then would I regard it as a big deal? Nope. It's minutiae. So, the target is not zero objections. The target is better than the alternatives.
If we leave the EU without a deal on March 29th, then our exports to South Korea, to Switzerland, to Canada, and to numerous other place not in the EU will suddenly be subject to subject to tariffs. Under the terms of the South Korea - EU FTA, UK financial services firms are currently able to hold banking licenses in South Korea. That will cease on 29 March without a deal.
This is not just about the UK and the EU's trading relationship. It is about the UK recreating the mesh of arrangements that the EU has created over 40 years. For the US alone, it is about replacing Open Skies, the Atlantic Council and the seven bilateral ageements covering trade and mutual standards recognition.
Currently, the UK is the location for European holding companies for thousands of multinationals. If we leave the EU's rules that exempt double taxation and withholding taxes, then it will dramatically complicate these companies operations. As a former CFO of a reasonably large multinational company, this is a very big deal. There's no way I would want to have my European holding entity in the UK because suddenly transfers between entities are subject to withholding taxes.
Given that the UK-EU relationship will be rewritten a dozen times in the next century - if the EU lasts that long - what in that agreement is sufficiently serious that you would choose No Deal over it?
Wouldn't mind Hunt - one of the grown ups.....
Of course there has now been a comprehensive rebuttal, but the damage is done. Most will probably never see the latter (which obviously won’t be retweeted by all and sundry). Such are the lies and half truths upon which the country is marching towards economic madness...
Citing a 'well placed army source', the paper says around 20 officers based in Hampshire are drawing up plans on how to keep order, ease traffic and deliver medicines.
Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.
And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.
That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.
However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1046795/brexit-news-theresa-may-confidence-vote-boris-johnson-jacob-rees-mogg-david-davis
That is now deliciously ironic on so many levels.
But I don't see a pathway to the final two for him. Age, inexperience, flakiness, laziness and the awesome shambles he has left behind in every major role he's held tell against him.
Moreover, the last time the Tories had a leader appointed while in government who hadn't previously held a major office of state was as long ago as 1828. I don't think that will be changing at such a crucial moment.
Javid is the more likely Eurosceptic candidate.
They've done serious damage and look like idiots. If I could tell within seconds that the author was lying, so should they have been able to. If I were the board, I'd be getting ready for some sackings.
Edit - and despite having been rebutted, the original article is still on their website.
Whether that candidate will then be elected is another question, and I think you are conflating the two issues.
I said that there had been "half a dozen" changes.
I would like to apologise.
In total there have been 210 separate treaties between the EU/EC/EEC*, meaning that - on average - the relationship between the two entities is changed approximately every four months.
* Not all of these are trade related, but I'm trying to make a point here.
When you here the likes of Francis talking in that pathetic smug manner, along with Mr SMUG himself Mogg, it makes one feel sick to the pit of one's stomach.
Zac Goldsmith joins lemming letter club: Millionaire MP humiliated by Heathrow resignation is 24th to openly call for May to quit as he warns 'there's no time to lose' as desperate sharks scramble for 48
(Edit/ a shocking split infinitive, as well)
In the story is: But sources suggested on Saturday that the plotters were still stuck at 37, according to The Sun, of whom 23 had gone public before Mr Goldsmith's intervention.
Is that better or worse than yesterday's DM "Lemmings"? - which they have continued today...."lemming letter club" (should have gone for "Lemming letter loons"...)
I think its fair to say the right wing press is far from united behind the ERG....
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
Unlike The Observer printing the latest Carole retraction on page 175.....
The Mail on Sunday (editor at time of Brexit, the current DM editor) supported remain.
https://twitter.com/staffy_stu/status/1063891238011772931?s=19
But then again, you did label the blustering buffon Davis as ‘attractive’.
Not fond of the odds + timescale, to be honest.
Oh, wait, you're serious...
And what has the PSG goalkeeper "buffon" got to do with anything ?
Whatever Hunt is, he is certainly not a grown up. Worse Health Secretary than Lansley which is pretty difficult to achieve, and a disaster at Culture - or have you forgotten the Sky debacle. The fact that he is an MP at all brings British politics into disrepute.
I think you meant “stab at the leadership” not “stab at the leader”...
They wanted Boris (I know) or Raab as a fallback
They were impressed I suggested Hunt on the grounds that one a deal is done ideological purity on Brexit should be irrelevant
"Under UK electoral law, campaigns cannot accept donations from individuals and firms overseas."
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/17/uk/brexit-banks-bannon-gbr-intl/index.html
How then is she supposed to appeal to the scores of Tory MPs already openly against the policy who will vote against it bringing her down? At the same time, a vote against this deal is patently a vote of no confidence in the PM - what "logic" sits with the MPs who trashed the deal in the Commons but purportedly will vote confidence in her or at least not send a letter to Brady?
Remember, to win a General Election Labour need no additional votes. They simply need Tory voters to stay home or go elsewhere. We know that divided disloyal parties don't appeal. And here we have rank disloyalty and open cowardice on show on the Tory benches. For that reason alone it's in the party's best interest for her to go quickly.
"There was some backing for Mrs May in the ComRes poll, with almost half of those polled saying she should remain as Prime Minister at least until Britain leaves the European Union, including three quarters of Conservative voters.
There was bad news for some of her possible challengers, with just eight per cent of voters wanting Mr Gove to take over if Mrs May steps down.
Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt fared little better on 10 per cent, with high profile Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg on 17 per cent.
(To be clear, from my original post, they WEREN’T impressed by Hunt)
Or a number of Rejoin candidates vs known Brexiteers?
https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/edition_ANdCi_2018-11-18/data/576453/index.html?share=1&WT.mc_id=tmgapp_inar_share&utm_source=tmgapp&utm_medium=inar&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=tmgapp_inar_share&Expires=1544918400&Signature=MQIiSgJErQQEYep1KbezMLIsZvr~BAqQp1We8XKpOAYQLl9qWMDYnwLr5WgBYw2wI5uXd6ipzyulGq9TvXlaITsQtPkqkcRaQBGg-iAXd3z7Ti0~wFLDGAjYRGpoYAHXarucmCoiKN~l66lF6zQ9LbrkFEW5Qrla3hjpjTzHSIArSyLv21ccNKKkBF2KW8tTqiqGcM0fS8dFOUjluju-RsOyMxCocv56M6o138cQD-E8VvIKvxtF9O5Fh1GjhQdz8wxzo3d~LHtObXjiCEKurXUUSiv-pf~LlVzaexRKVQAWeMrMrqK-LEuqV8plRPZLjIYyZxuglH2EwmLTkEsDlQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLCEPDGCTPVKXNOA
‘People’s vote more likely than election says McDonnell as Labour stance shifts’ (Sun Ti p2) - McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election amid claims that he is warming to the idea of a second vote, Shipman/Wheeler rpt. The Shadow Chancellor conceded ystr that a general election “could prove difficult” because of the Fixed-term Parlts Act, which allows for an early election only if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour. Polling that shows growing support for a second referendum is said to have influenced the Shadow Chancellor. McDonnell has previously said remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot in any referendum under Labour. Sources claim he is now more open to the idea. Last week’s political turmoil sent shock waves through Labour. “It made everyone realise just how broken parlt is and what could happen if, and when, MPs vote down May’s deal,” another insider said. Tmrw Starmer will urge Labour MPs to hold their nerve and vote down the deal. The DUP is seeking chances to work with Labour to defeat the Govt on the finance bill.
McDonnell is, as I've said, pragmatic first and left-wing second. I think a second referendum policy is now on the cards. Also, I can see the DUP doing a deal with Labour. The argument that it's inconceivable runs into the fact that they actually formed a government with Sinn Fein. There comes a point where government is so chaotic that people seek out the alternative and make arrangements accordingly.