The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.
The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.
Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.
And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.
That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.
However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
If Davis is the answer we are well and truly F*****. A pompous vainglorious useless moron.
I get the a press monitoring summary (sadly they don't believe in paragraphs), and this para is interesting in several ways:
‘People’s vote more likely than election says McDonnell as Labour stance shifts’ (Sun Ti p2) - McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election amid claims that he is warming to the idea of a second vote, Shipman/Wheeler rpt. The Shadow Chancellor conceded ystr that a general election “could prove difficult” because of the Fixed-term Parlts Act, which allows for an early election only if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour. Polling that shows growing support for a second referendum is said to have influenced the Shadow Chancellor. McDonnell has previously said remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot in any referendum under Labour. Sources claim he is now more open to the idea. Last week’s political turmoil sent shock waves through Labour. “It made everyone realise just how broken parlt is and what could happen if, and when, MPs vote down May’s deal,” another insider said. Tmrw Starmer will urge Labour MPs to hold their nerve and vote down the deal. The DUP is seeking chances to work with Labour to defeat the Govt on the finance bill.
McDonnell is, as I've said, pragmatic first and left-wing second. I think a second referendum policy is now on the cards. Also, I can see the DUP doing a deal with Labour. The argument that it's inconceivable runs into the fact that they actually formed a government with Sinn Fein. There comes a point where government is so chaotic that people seek out the alternative and make arrangements accordingly.
A second referendum may be needed to give credibility to whatever nest step whichever government has to take. It's a shame for the moderate Leavers but we there is a failure of leadership among the political class and this is combined with a public opinion which is divided and divorced from reality.
I get the a press monitoring summary (sadly they don't believe in paragraphs), and this para is interesting in several ways:
‘People’s vote more likely than election says McDonnell as Labour stance shifts’ (Sun Ti p2) - McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election amid claims that he is warming to the idea of a second vote, Shipman/Wheeler rpt. The Shadow Chancellor conceded ystr that a general election “could prove difficult” because of the Fixed-term Parlts Act, which allows for an early election only if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour. Polling that shows growing support for a second referendum is said to have influenced the Shadow Chancellor. McDonnell has previously said remaining in the EU would not be on the ballot in any referendum under Labour. Sources claim he is now more open to the idea. Last week’s political turmoil sent shock waves through Labour. “It made everyone realise just how broken parlt is and what could happen if, and when, MPs vote down May’s deal,” another insider said. Tmrw Starmer will urge Labour MPs to hold their nerve and vote down the deal. The DUP is seeking chances to work with Labour to defeat the Govt on the finance bill.
McDonnell is, as I've said, pragmatic first and left-wing second. I think a second referendum policy is now on the cards. Also, I can see the DUP doing a deal with Labour. The argument that it's inconceivable runs into the fact that they actually formed a government with Sinn Fein. There comes a point where government is so chaotic that people seek out the alternative and make arrangements accordingly.
Labour will do a deal with the DUP? Makes their words in the aftermath of the last GE look a bit hollow...
The other issue is the timing. Each extra candidate means an extra round of voting. If the contest is before Brexit Day there will be huge pressure to select a new PM quickly. I can't see the Party, the Markets or the Public allowing 7 odd names to drag things out. If the contest is after Brexit Day and there is ample time then there will be more folk running. So when you think the contest will come is a factor here.
The ballot of MPs to reduce to two candidates is, or can be, done quickly. They will ballot daily or twice daily.
And people may drop out more quickly than one at a time
If you weren't dealing with the political ego here, then if you are going to replace May because she has ballsed up Brexit, it makes sense to replace her with somebody who knows what the hell has gone wrong - and what might just be possible to fix it. Which puts Davis and Raab way out in front.
Davis has been offered to the members before - and the way things have panned out, I suspect a significant number of members wonder how things might have been different if they had plumped for him over Cameron. If he could convince the ambitious that he does not want to lead them beyond 2020, they will have another stab (carefully chosen) at the leader once Brexit has been delivered. Davis offers an attractive short term fix, whilst longer term being no road-block to the ambitious. But if Raab gets Brexit sorted, and he could be there ten years or more.
And how many of these other runners and riders actually WANT to have to get us through a possible No Deal Brexit? PM of the Sunlit-Uplands Beyond is much more attractive than PM of a Bloody Great Headache.
That's why (for months) I have been saying Davis gets it in a Coronation of Chaos, once May's deal was dead. Well, May's deal is dead, as is her political tenure. We have the Chaos of a group of Cabinet Ministers having prised renegotiation of that deal from her as the price of not defenestrating the PM this past last week. But no-one beyond Sir Alan Duncan has gone in front of the cameras expressing a desire for her to continue in post.
However, we are dealing with the political ego. And the Conservative Party. I may be completely wrong.
If Davis is the answer we are well and truly F*****. A pompous vainglorious useless moron.
It;s time you came off the fence and said what you really mean
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
Mr Raab was once a magic circle solicitor. On the basis of the Sunday Times reporting he hasn’t developed beyond the junior solicitor, “it’s in the LMA, ISDA and therefore I cannot change”. So used to shouting from a position of strength that he’s incapable of understanding how to behave and how people behave when the position’s reversed.
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
I think if senior government politicians pontificate on the economic and political future of 70m people they are expected to be very clued up on the basic features of how it all works. He showed himself up badly here but he did the right thing to resign as he is clearly unfit for high office.
Face facts, there is no good choice for the Tories. There are no good candidates. However, the next leader needs to be a dyed in the wool Leaver. Voters need to see the incompetence, the delusion and the mendaciousness in all its untrammelled glory. If we are going to suffer a No Deal Brexit let it, at least, do some good: the total evisceration of the moon-howling simpletons and charlatans whose laziness, stupidity and lies put us there.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
"McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election" Can someone explain how a "People's vote" comes about if the Tories (Any Tory) is in charge ?!
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
Some of us (especially those who are not Tories) happen to think Nick that destroying the Tories for good and all would actually be a small price to pay for keeping Corbyn out of power so somebody sane, intelligent and competent could take over Labour.
I agree the Tories are unfit for office, but Labour are unfortunately much less fit for it.
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
This is hardly akin to having a complete grasp of particle physics. You don’t even need beyond basic knowledge to know that Dover-Calais is quite important to our trade. And even if we make allowances he surely can’t have failed to notice the people pointing this out for the last 3 years? Could he not have found out a bit more at an earlier stage?
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
I think if senior government politicians pontificate on the economic and political future of 70m people they are expected to be very clued up on the basic features of how it all works. He showed himself up badly here but he did the right thing to resign as he is clearly unfit for high office.
Face facts, there is no good choice for the Tories. There are no good candidates. However, the next leader needs to be a dyed in the wool Leaver. Voters need to see the incompetence, the delusion and the mendaciousness in all its untrammelled glory. If we are going to suffer a No Deal Brexit let it, at least, do some good: the total evisceration of the moon-howling simpletons and charlatans whose laziness, stupidity and lies put us there.
You could not find one person in the cabinet that you would trust to be able to run you a bath. They have assembled the biggest bunch of elite moronic donkeys ever seen on the planet. Even Corbyn would be better than these morons.
Face facts, there is no good choice for the Tories. There are no good candidates. However, the next leader needs to be a dyed in the wool Leaver. Voters need to see the incompetence, the delusion and the mendaciousness in all its untrammelled glory. If we are going to suffer a No Deal Brexit let it, at least, do some good: the total evisceration of the moon-howling simpletons and charlatans whose laziness, stupidity and lies put us there.
I take your point. If we are to drive off a cliff, it might as well be in a clown car.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
I am skeptical that a Labour Government would be doing much better in Brexit.
It is much easier in this area to oppose than to construct a policy that unites.
In fact, I am not even sure what Labour’s policy is. I mean, I know what your policy is, but as far as I am aware it is not Labour’s policy.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
There is only one alternative worse than the current situation and of course you hit right on it.
Surely there must be 48 letters in by now. Otherwise we could safely conclude that the media has given far too much time to a group of MPs that is not just comprised of extremist ninnies but is also merely a pimple on the face of Parliament.
I think they may be sitting on the figure, as they (no 10, whips and CCHQ) can time the announcement to minimise damage - Monday more probable having hit pitch ready
Good point, but Monday is too soon, Tuesday and Wednesday before PMQ's not a chance, too big of an open goal to hand Corbyn. Thursday looks likely then. The longer it delays, the stronger TMay looks.
Parliament is sitting on Friday so I expect you are right - I was going to say Wednesday afternoon with the vote on Thursday but there is zero news with Parliament open on Friday
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
I am skeptical that a Labour Government would be doing much better in Brexit.
It is much easier in this area to oppose than to construct a policy that unites.
In fact, I am not even sure what Labour’s policy is. I mean, I know what your policy is, but as far as I am aware it is not Labour’s policy.
Agree, we have no clue what Labour's position is or what they would do if in charge. Hard to believe but they are worse than the Tories, we are well and truly F*****.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
"McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election" Can someone explain how a "People's vote" comes about if the Tories (Any Tory) is in charge ?!
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
Not saying it's likely, but:
1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year 2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did) 3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain 4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
There is only one alternative worse than the current situation and of course you hit right on it.
Oklahoma, Felix. Oklahoma. There is no alternative worse than the Buccaneers taking over.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
If she survives a VONC then they cannot sack her. Not for 12 months anyway.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
"McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election" Can someone explain how a "People's vote" comes about if the Tories (Any Tory) is in charge ?!
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
Not saying it's likely, but:
1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year 2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did) 3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain 4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"
Step 5 - Theresa uses step 4 to get enough headbangers and labour leavers in line, the bill passes.
"McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election" Can someone explain how a "People's vote" comes about if the Tories (Any Tory) is in charge ?!
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
Not saying it's likely, but:
1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year 2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did) 3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain 4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"
OK sure - but I'd put a General Election ahead of that sequence of events though; not that I think either is likely.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
So, your opinion? 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
If she survives a VONC then they cannot sack her. Not for 12 months anyway.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
I would caveat that by saying cabinet could force her out
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
Was he genuinely surprised that goods hauliers chose the shortest and fastest Channel crossing? Are you?
"McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election" Can someone explain how a "People's vote" comes about if the Tories (Any Tory) is in charge ?!
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
Not saying it's likely, but:
1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year 2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did) 3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain 4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"
OK sure - but I'd put a General Election ahead of that sequence of events though; not that I think either is likely.
No, step 4 will probably happen but it's a precursor to forcing the headbangers back in line.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
So, your opinion? 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
If we crash out without a deal then I can see seven Tories (Grieve, Soubry, Clarke) VONCing their own Gov't and a GE taking place.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
Some of us (especially those who are not Tories) happen to think Nick that destroying the Tories for good and all would actually be a small price to pay for keeping Corbyn out of power so somebody sane, intelligent and competent could take over Labour.
I agree the Tories are unfit for office, but Labour are unfortunately much less fit for it.
Why?
The time is ripe for a radical change in both domestic and foreign policy. A UN expert has pointed out the extent of child poverty in the UK and acting as a Saudi poodle following the Khashoggi assassination is surely now untenable. The current Labour leadership would deliver this necessary change, with McDonnell as CoE. Corbyn has many friends overseas with whom the UK could seek cordial relations.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
So, your opinion? 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
If we crash out without a deal then I can see seven Tories (Grieve, Soubry, Clarke) VONCing their own Gov't and a GE taking place.
... amidst shortages and lorries queued in Kent. You may be right, but it would be too late by then.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
So, your opinion? 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
If we crash out without a deal then I can see seven Tories (Grieve, Soubry, Clarke) VONCing their own Gov't and a GE taking place.
There’d be no time. If they VONCed an executive that was set on no deal, the only feasible option would be a government of national unity.
The news cycle being led by the former Brexit Secretary saying the PM "has not stood up to the EUs bullies" is toxic to Theresa.
The one that only just worked out we're an island?
That one?
If you look at his actual comment
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
Was he genuinely surprised that goods hauliers chose the shortest and fastest Channel crossing? Are you?
It must have been quite shocking to find out that people tend to use the quickest route and the one with the most sailings. But not quite as shocking as discovering that David Davis is looking to do a trade deal with Oklahoma.
Corbyn waffling on Sky wanting his cake and eat it
Not a clue what to do
So quite well suited to government then!
Give the man a chance, he cannot do worse than the current government.
Indeed not. One of the many unwanted outcomes of May's blundering has been to transform Corbyn from a ridiculed no hoper to a serious candidate for PM.
Mr. Pulpstar, two things on that: 1) If May's already won a vote of no confidence she's safe 2) The PCP would view a vote of no confidence as a proxy over the proposal. It wouldn't be May or Nay, it'd be second referendum or explicitly endorsing No Deal.
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
There is only one alternative worse than the current situation and of course you hit right on it.
Oklahoma, Felix. Oklahoma. There is no alternative worse than the Buccaneers taking over.
He doesn’t get an awful lot of positive feedback in his twitter responses....
It strange how some ERGers twitter comments are full of sycophants (see eg. Nadine dorries) who cheer on their every pronouncement and in others full of critics. This man was a cabinet minister! His colleague is currently being promoted as the next Prime Minister!
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
If she survives a VONC then they cannot sack her. Not for 12 months anyway.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
I would caveat that by saying cabinet could force her out
When you have five members of Cabinet refusing to resign, but instead re-writing the deal she has negotiated, her inability to sack them shows her power as PM has all but gone.....
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
If she survives a VONC then they cannot sack her. Not for 12 months anyway.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
I would caveat that by saying cabinet could force her out
When you have five members of Cabinet refusing to resign, but instead re-writing the deal she has negotiated, her inability to sack them shows her power as PM has all but gone.....
And just how are they going to re-write the deal. Tweeks maybe but nothing else
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
So, your opinion? 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
If we crash out without a deal then I can see seven Tories (Grieve, Soubry, Clarke) VONCing their own Gov't and a GE taking place.
... amidst shortages and lorries queued in Kent. You may be right, but it would be too late by then.
I think in worst case scenarios there would have to be a government of national unity staffed by whoever is willing to serve. Might put a cheeky fiver on Ken Clarke being next PM.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
Hopefully the Mail will put that tweet on their front page. Could be the change of dynamic we need.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
Why? DD is now a mere back-bencher, currently pfaffing about in the flyover belt.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.
Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
There is only one alternative worse than the current situation and of course you hit right on it.
Oklahoma, Felix. Oklahoma. There is no alternative worse than the Buccaneers taking over.
Yes but they are not the people in government remember..at least not yet.
Who, can in all conscience, one vote for at the GE. Labour impossible ... the loony fringes impossible (inc the LD's as nonentities), the Tories right are crackpots. If voters abstain, that lets in Labour.. Yikes!
Apparently DD is the USA freelancing a trade deal. He's gone full George Costanza.
...with Oklahoma, apparently. You couldn't make it up. Though the idea floated in the Telegraph of JRM being the next Chancellor has good entertainment value too.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
Some of us (especially those who are not Tories) happen to think Nick that destroying the Tories for good and all would actually be a small price to pay for keeping Corbyn out of power so somebody sane, intelligent and competent could take over Labour.
I agree the Tories are unfit for office, but Labour are unfortunately much less fit for it.
Why?
The time is ripe for a radical change in both domestic and foreign policy. A UN expert has pointed out the extent of child poverty in the UK and acting as a Saudi poodle following the Khashoggi assassination is surely now untenable. The current Labour leadership would deliver this necessary change, with McDonnell as CoE. Corbyn has many friends overseas with whom the UK could seek cordial relations.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.
Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed
Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.
She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
Mr. Pulpstar, the only way I can see it is if: 1) the deal reaches the Commons 2) it's defeated 3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
I know we all joke about the incompetent fools trying to depose her, but she really will get the sack if she proposes a second ref.
If she survives a VONC then they cannot sack her. Not for 12 months anyway.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
I would caveat that by saying cabinet could force her out
When you have five members of Cabinet refusing to resign, but instead re-writing the deal she has negotiated, her inability to sack them shows her power as PM has all but gone.....
Especially given the five losers doing it, could only be worse if Mundell joined them.
Buccaneering Brexiteer latest ... * Dominic Raab has discovered Britain is an island off the coast of France. * Nadine Dorries has learned leaving the EU means having no MEPs * David Davis and Owen Paterson have tried to negotiate a trade deal with Oklahoma.
Presumably the Okies want to flog us hormone beef?
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
It is unbelievable. Genuinely unbelievable. There they stand beneath the flag of Oklahoma seeking to be thought of as serious statesmen rather than the complete cretins they are.
Someone needs to end this nonsense. It’s pathetic. David Davis is a fool.
He worse than that. He is a danger to our whole economy
May might be a very poor politician with a tin ear, no ability to convince people or unable to think on her feet - but, she is not actively dangerous like Davis who is mind bogglingly incompetant.
Maybe tin ear against ERG is exactly what is needed
Her tin ear is her downfall. You cannot adapt or convince if you do not listen.
She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.
I think her real downfall is worse than than a tin ear - she goes behind peoples' backs and actively undermines them. It's the story of Brexit. People have a post, then discover she has agreed to something that comes out of the blue. Which might be fine, if everybody else in her party wasn't going "WTF???" at the stuff she concedes.
I think if there is. VonC and May wins then all options are on the table. At that point she can only be removed by the House of Commons, and it gives her free reign to work outside of party boundaries to gain a majority do whatever is needed to avert national disaster.
How is Owen "full of sh*t" Patterson still an MP? The man is mad and stupid!
I don’t agree with the lot that we should leave. Cleaerly on the current options we should remain. However the Brexit bunch were accused of not having a plan earlier in the week - now they do some work on one and they are all morons. I don’t agree with them but it’s a bit disingenuous.
I think if there is. VonC and May wins then all options are on the table. At that point she can only be removed by the House of Commons, and it gives her free reign to work outside of party boundaries to gain a majority do whatever is needed to avert national disaster.
She can still be removed by mass cabinet resignations
How is Owen "full of sh*t" Patterson still an MP? The man is mad and stupid!
I don’t agree with the lot that we should leave. Cleaerly on the current options we should remain. However the Brexit bunch were accused of not having a plan earlier in the week - now they do some work on one and they are all morons. I don’t agree with them but it’s a bit disingenuous.
Try reading the twitter responses. I don’t think “negotiating a trade agreement” with a US state that has no power to negotiate trade agreements (you might have heard of this inconvenient Federation called the United States of America) constitutes a plan, even a bad one.
Comments
“We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.”
I don’t understand the problem with this - do we expect every politician to understand everything about everything - surely not. It is clear he understands we live on an island. He holds plenty of views you could legitimately criticise him for
But still, BMW.
https://twitter.com/owenpaterson/status/1063860778242109441?s=21
I almost fell off my chair laughing at that.
My sympathies are not a secret. But does anyone feel that the Conservative Party is capable under ANY leader of offering coherent government for the country at the moment? If ever a party needed a period in opposition to sort itself out, isn't this a prime example? And if a Corbyn government (dependent on SNP and LibDem votes) would be as awful as they think - a coalition of chaos and all that - wouldn't that be an opportunity for the Tories to prepare a credible alternative?
It requires primary legislation. That simply isn't happening whilst there is a Conservative PM, perhaps I'm missing something here.
I agree the Tories are unfit for office, but Labour are unfortunately much less fit for it.
Pragamatic…. a new word for for insurrection?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=za5GYbfRmWo
It is much easier in this area to oppose than to construct a policy that unites.
In fact, I am not even sure what Labour’s policy is. I mean, I know what your policy is, but as far as I am aware it is not Labour’s policy.
1) the deal reaches the Commons
2) it's defeated
3) May proposes that no deal is not what people voted for and proposes a no deal/Remain referendum
Perhaps they are a good market for our innovative jams.
1) TMay gets challenged for the leadership and wins, so she's safe for a year
2) ERG/DUP plan to vote down TMay's deal (or already did)
3) SNP+LibDems+Centrist-Dad-Lab offer to vote for it on the condition the legislation makes it subject to a referendum, the other option being Remain
4) TMay agrees, saying, "I totally didn't want to do this, but I had no option thanks to the disloyalty of the headbangers"
Not a clue what to do
Are you serious?
How on earth did these people get anywhere near the Houses of Parliament, let alone the Cabinet?
The sheer, barking insanity of it is quite literally beyond comprehension.
Of the various ways out of this situation, the #peoplesvote is the best. Make Britain Sane Again!
What - and this is the labour leader
Give the man a chance, he cannot do worse than the current government.
1) the deal reaches the Commons
2) it's defeated
3) We crash out.
A new referendum on the options which are NOW before us makes sense. Ask the people.
The time is ripe for a radical change in both domestic and foreign policy. A UN expert has pointed out the extent of child poverty in the UK and acting as a Saudi poodle following the Khashoggi assassination is surely now untenable. The current Labour leadership would deliver this necessary change, with McDonnell as CoE. Corbyn has many friends overseas with whom the UK could seek cordial relations.
"Oh, what a beautiful mornin'
Oh, what a beautiful day
I've got a beautiful feelin'
Everything's goin' my way..."
It's like saying Lenin and Trotsky couldn't possibly be worse than Kerensky and Dan. But oh boy, they were.
You may be right, but it would be too late by then.
'Barley, carrots and potatoes.
Pasta for the cattle
Spinach and tomatoes'
1) If May's already won a vote of no confidence she's safe
2) The PCP would view a vote of no confidence as a proxy over the proposal. It wouldn't be May or Nay, it'd be second referendum or explicitly endorsing No Deal.
It strange how some ERGers twitter comments are full of sycophants (see eg. Nadine dorries) who cheer on their every pronouncement and in others full of critics. This man was a cabinet minister! His colleague is currently being promoted as the next Prime Minister!
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1064084069099683840?s=20
That is, she's suggesting that the £39bn isn't a done deal, for example.
She has one argument and one technique stating ‘I am right’ over and over again in the hope people will just get bored. She used this on technical mattered in the home office, but on this others disagree and she is doing nothing to convince them.
How is Owen "full of sh*t" Patterson still an MP? The man is mad and stupid!
The first calling point of the UK's negotiator immediately after #Brexit will not be Brussels, it will be Oklahoma City, to strike a deal
* Dominic Raab has discovered Britain is an island off the coast of France.
* Nadine Dorries has learned leaving the EU means having no MEPs
* David Davis and Owen Paterson have tried to negotiate a trade deal with Oklahoma.