politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A massive Westminster day ends with TMay still in place

HYUFD said:

UKIP back with a vengeance

That would be a good thing.

If all the headbangers crossed the floor instead of infesting the Conservative Party I might be able to vote for them again

dixiedean said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

O/T:

Greens almost there in Germany.


"Europe Elects
‏@EuropeElects

Germany, Infratest dimap poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+4)
AfD-EFDD: 14% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
FDP-ALDE: 8% (-3)

Field work: 12/11/18 – 14/11/18
Sample size: 1,506"

AfD also level with SPD, even if Greens get closer to the CDU, CDU + AfD are now on 40%, 3% ahead of SPD + Greens on 37%.

The main movement is still SPD to Green, especially as the CDU are also up 1% in this poll

What the CDU plus AfD are is irrelevant. The CDU will not work with them. Far more likely to work with Greens, as in Hesse. That is a clear majority.

Under Merkel yes, if her successor is more conservative maybe less certain

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.

https://twitter.com/queen_uk/status/1063197857505779712?s=21

Currant bun front page is a goodie.

To ignore the noise and look to the signal two things strike me today behind the resignation fluff. Firstly it was Day 2 of a big political launch. The Deal. And no one was selling it. It's like the Golden Hour after a major accident. In politics you need to define things yourself before your opponents define it. May has comprehensively lost the first 48 hrs. Secondly more significant imho than the show boats resigning were the greater number of silent cabinet ministers. The government won't sell this without sales people. You can only hide under the desk for so long.

Nick Watt still saying the 48 are coming on Newsnight.

Difficult to believe Mogg would have put his letter in otherwise.



Perhaps he has been duped???

Made me laugh:

https://twitter.com/BobbyFriedman/status/1063088968726708225

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1063191291109011456?s=19

Breaking: Graham Brady orders manual recount of his letter draw.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Currant bun front page is a goodie.

Link?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

rottenborough said:

Nick Watt still saying the 48 are coming on Newsnight.

Difficult to believe Mogg would have put his letter in otherwise.



Perhaps he has been duped???

Jane Merrick on Twitter claiming 1922 letters 'in the low 30s'.

1930s, presumably?

http://instantrimshot.com/index.php?sound=rimshot

Bone looks to me like someone who knows there isn't going to be 48.

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.

The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all

rottenborough said:

Bone looks to me like someone who knows there isn't going to be 48.

He was all piss and wind earlier, he's much more downbeat now. Good.

Heseltine: No way this deal will pass Parliament.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1063202459303256065

geoffw said:

FPT
The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.

Fraser:

But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.

Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/despite-revulsion-mrs-mays-deal-confident-opponents-wont-move

If that's true it puts me in the no deal column. Or we abrogate the treaty down the line. Good fucking faith indeed.

YellowSubmarine said:

Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.

Heck I have never been a second referendum fan (I generally groaned whenever I saw a politician bring it up because it was so transparently obvious they were just using it as a mechanism for staying in, and although I voted remain I felt the public decision needed to be honoured) but even I’m coming round to it now, I’m just fed up of all the petty bickering and not-so-hidden-agendas of all the MPs and I’d rather throw it back to the people now.

There are very few politicians of the calibre of, say, Hague and Clarke, who have been very measured in their response to the deal. I have no doubt that they dislike elements of it, perhaps for different reasons, but they understand that this is the best it’s going to get and they’re willing to give it a shot. It is sad that there are so many pygmies on each side of the Commons who can’t produce a measured and statesmanlike response to this (even if they disagree with the deal) and instead just scream their agenda from the rooftops like spoilt brats.

I want them all out.

Beverley_C said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063194961972289536

Meaningless unless Brussels agrees

Well quite. For all the claims of May bluffing about things or trying to hobble things, we cannot impose things on Brussels.

AmpfieldAndy said:

rpjs said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.

There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.

No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.

Beverley_C said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1063194961972289536

Meaningless unless Brussels agrees

I'm sure they would. There'd be the minimum of economic disruption for everyone, we'd make contributions to the budget but have no say. Sounds like a win-win from their POV! And more likely than not a few years down the road we'd accept it's stupid not to have a say, and rejoin the full Union.

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.

The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all

The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.

Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.

Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal

numbertwelve said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.

Heck I have never been a second referendum fan (I generally groaned whenever I saw a politician bring it up because it was so transparently obvious they were just using it as a mechanism for staying in, and although I voted remain I felt the public decision needed to be honoured) but even I’m coming round to it now, I’m just fed up of all the petty bickering and not-so-hidden-agendas of all the MPs and I’d rather throw it back to the people now.
.

I wish we didn't have to since I think the chance of it resolving things is not that great either, but MPs on all sides still seem consumed with whether they get to succeed May as PM, whether Labour can get into power, whether they can keep Corbyn out of power, etc etc, and have that as their primary focus, or are just still not being honest about the risks they would take on certain options, which may well be worth it if only they admitted that risk.

Throwing it back to the people somehow is a defeat of the purpose of parliament, but they are incapable of delivering.

AmpfieldAndy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1063202459303256065

Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.

Eh? It gives them the certainty that their supply chains and trading relationships won't blow up in just over four months' time.

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1063202459303256065

Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.

Businesses have come out strongly tonight in favour

Which ones specifically? (Genuine question, I've not seen any in coverage)

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.

The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all

The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.

Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.

Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal

It wasn't even that. The ill effects of a no deal exit were "Project Fear", remember?

YellowSubmarine said:

Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.

'Thin ice'? Just 32% back No Deal in that poll, once you take out those who back May's Deal

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.

AmpfieldAndy said:

Theo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1063202459303256065

Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.

Big business has been praising the deal all day.

Who

The conservatives potential sudden death as the party of business (despite Corbyn!) will have huge and long-term lasting electoral (and funding) consequences if this plays out towards a no deal scenario. Not rocket science and I hear similar sentiments every day.

AmpfieldAndy said:

TOPPING said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rpjs said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.

There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.

No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.

It was always a bluff if you didn’t prepare for it and being found out trying to run a bluff, an unconvincing bluff at that, is fatal to negotiations as May has found out to. Britain’s cost

Nah. No sane government could ever contemplate no deal. As we have seen. In Jacob Rees-Mogg fantasy land (and perhaps yours) maybe. But not in the real world.

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Jonathan said:

I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.

Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.

Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.

Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.

Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.


If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not

https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-11555078

You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.

There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.

The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all

The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.

Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.

Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal

Actually, I think a large-ish chunk of the leave vote was actually for No Deal in a way, because the consequences of leaving weren’t spelt out to them. So sure was Dave of his referendum victory that he never really explained what would happen if leave won. Yes there was project fear, but there was nothing along the lines of “we’d have to negotiate a new relationship with the EU to try and safeguard our economy and jobs and if we couldn’t get that, yes, there’s a risk we’d crash out with no deal”. It was all very vague. And from the other side all we got was “Take Back Control. Free Movement. Blue Passports. Trade Deals. NHS Cash.”

pbr2013 said:

geoffw said:

FPT
The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.

Fraser:

But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.

Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/despite-revulsion-mrs-mays-deal-confident-opponents-wont-move

If that's true it puts me in the no deal column. Or we abrogate the treaty down the line. Good fucking faith indeed.

I'm in the no deal column anyway, but now even more firmly entrenched.

GIN1138 said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

Staying permanently in the customs union and having to beg the EU to leave it if we wish is NOT Brexit and actually leaves us with less control than we have now as full members.

The agreement does not require us to stay permanently in the CU. It does keep us in for a transitional period which is necessary because we have not carried out any preparations for an alternative. It gets us out of the EU so we no longer have to bother with MEPs or EU conferences, it gives us back control of our borders, it means we make our own laws except in so far as these affect the SM, it largely stops the payments. We are out of the CAP and will be out of the CFP within 2 years. Its a bloody good first step.

Instead we face a real risk of being stuck as supplicants back in the EU without some of our opt outs, probably without our rebate and absolutely no influence in any event as we will be a complete laughing stock.

Theo said:

rpjs said:

Theo said:

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled

And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.

Only if they have German citizenship, which most don't and will take a long time to acquire.

5-10 years. Which is the timeframe we would be in the EU for.

Acquiring German citizenship requires a successful asylum claim first (and many will be rejected) and need to be fluent in German. Anyone who has managed that is likely to want to stay in the successful, high wage, high employment German economy.

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.

Almost amusingly the pig headedness of certain leavers may lead to remain, while the pig headedness of some remainers risks no deal (though I put that at less a chance than remain). Bunch of hypocrites the both sets of them. claiming to be willing to do much to avoid certain outcomes or that certain states (eg being in the EU/no deal) are so bad and yet happy to see them happen on the chance of getting their perfect solution.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1063198697268363265

Minority government then and they lose 1 billion

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1063198697268363265

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1063205400894468096

rpjs said:

Theo said:

YBarddCwsc said:

welshowl said:

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1063193510361341953

Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.

If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.

Agreed.

Yes, they are complete w@nkers.

So ERG have now lost the support of the Mail and the Express??

Just occurs to me that possibly the reason the Express supports May's deal is that it's now owned by whatever-it-was-Trinity MIrror-renamed-themselves-to.

Not sure if that has gone through

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1063198697268363265

January General Election it is then.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1063198697268363265

Minority government then and they lose 1 billion

Fools.

tottenhamWC said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Theo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1063202459303256065

Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.

Big business has been praising the deal all day.

Who

The conservatives potential sudden death as the party of business (despite Corbyn!) will have huge and long-term lasting electoral (and funding) consequences if this plays out towards a no deal scenario. Not rocket science and I hear similar sentiments every day.

No Deal is, and always has been, the preferred end state of the ERG.
Why it has taken mainstream Conservatives so long to see this is the real mystery.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1063198697268363265

Minority government then and they lose 1 billion

I don't think the Billion pounds has been delivered, as it requires Stormont to have a government.