I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
Very interesting. There could be an HoC majority for that... and it will strengthen the resolve of Conservative Remainers (and soft-Remainers) not to capitulate to May's deal.
That makes no sense. Either you Brexit or you don't. May's deal isn't incompatible with a future relationship in the single market and customs union.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
To ignore the noise and look to the signal two things strike me today behind the resignation fluff. Firstly it was Day 2 of a big political launch. The Deal. And no one was selling it. It's like the Golden Hour after a major accident. In politics you need to define things yourself before your opponents define it. May has comprehensively lost the first 48 hrs. Secondly more significant imho than the show boats resigning were the greater number of silent cabinet ministers. The government won't sell this without sales people. You can only hide under the desk for so long.
A feelgood tale of a homeless man using his last $20 to help a stranded New Jersey woman buy gas was actually a complete lie, manufactured to get strangers to donate more than $400,000 to help the down-and-out good Samaritan, a prosecutor has said.
A feelgood tale of a homeless man using his last $20 to help a stranded New Jersey woman buy gas was actually a complete lie, manufactured to get strangers to donate more than $400,000 to help the down-and-out good Samaritan, a prosecutor has said.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.
Very interesting. There could be an HoC majority for that... and it will strengthen the resolve of Conservative Remainers (and soft-Remainers) not to capitulate to May's deal.
Would personally be supportive of this (as I would also be of the original TM deal).
If this is the end result - and more moderate - the ERG rebels only have themselves to blame.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
I used that as a synedoche for no deal preparations as a whole. I feel my point still stands.
FPT The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.
Fraser:
But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.
Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.
Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.
Heck I have never been a second referendum fan (I generally groaned whenever I saw a politician bring it up because it was so transparently obvious they were just using it as a mechanism for staying in, and although I voted remain I felt the public decision needed to be honoured) but even I’m coming round to it now, I’m just fed up of all the petty bickering and not-so-hidden-agendas of all the MPs and I’d rather throw it back to the people now.
There are very few politicians of the calibre of, say, Hague and Clarke, who have been very measured in their response to the deal. I have no doubt that they dislike elements of it, perhaps for different reasons, but they understand that this is the best it’s going to get and they’re willing to give it a shot. It is sad that there are so many pygmies on each side of the Commons who can’t produce a measured and statesmanlike response to this (even if they disagree with the deal) and instead just scream their agenda from the rooftops like spoilt brats.
As a matter of interest, how does one do a recount from voting machines?
From seeing a sample Florida ballot, I expect they have similar machines to us in NYS. You fill out ovals next to the candidates you prefer and then insert the ballot paper into the machine which scans the ovals to tabulate the vote. It then retains the paper.
So a manual count would be like a UK count, you get all the papers and manually count the filled in ovals. Doing just one race wouldn't be super difficult.
The polling on May's deal is early and sketchy *but* it looms remarkably similar to Chequers polling. When you offer voters a preferendum on Deal/No Deal/No Brexit voters say May's deal is by far the least popular choice. Worse still the Remain vote stays solid but the Leave vote splits between May's deal and No Deal.
On of the Iron Laws of antediluvian politics us if you want voters to pick something you frame it as the middle choice between two extremes. But it looms like Brexit is so polarising That's not true here.
May or successor gas a huge task ahead as it looks like any Brexit deal is going to **** off Remainers for being Brexit and most Leavers for not being a Unicorn.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
I'm sure they would. There'd be the minimum of economic disruption for everyone, we'd make contributions to the budget but have no say. Sounds like a win-win from their POV! And more likely than not a few years down the road we'd accept it's stupid not to have a say, and rejoin the full Union.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.
It was always a bluff if you didn’t prepare for it and being found out trying to run a bluff, an unconvincing bluff at that, is fatal to negotiations as May has found out to. Britain’s cost
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.
Heck I have never been a second referendum fan (I generally groaned whenever I saw a politician bring it up because it was so transparently obvious they were just using it as a mechanism for staying in, and although I voted remain I felt the public decision needed to be honoured) but even I’m coming round to it now, I’m just fed up of all the petty bickering and not-so-hidden-agendas of all the MPs and I’d rather throw it back to the people now. .
I wish we didn't have to since I think the chance of it resolving things is not that great either, but MPs on all sides still seem consumed with whether they get to succeed May as PM, whether Labour can get into power, whether they can keep Corbyn out of power, etc etc, and have that as their primary focus, or are just still not being honest about the risks they would take on certain options, which may well be worth it if only they admitted that risk.
Throwing it back to the people somehow is a defeat of the purpose of parliament, but they are incapable of delivering.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Eh? It gives them the certainty that their supply chains and trading relationships won't blow up in just over four months' time.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Businesses have come out strongly tonight in favour
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
Voters didn't know the Labour Party would put together six tests that are mutually exclusive.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Businesses have come out strongly tonight in favour
Which ones specifically? (Genuine question, I've not seen any in coverage)
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Because the alternative is no deal, with no preparation because our government is incompetent. But we are where we are as a pretty straight kind of guy once said.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
It wasn't even that. The ill effects of a no deal exit were "Project Fear", remember?
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.
Usual caveats about Sky Data polls but they become the fourth pollster and fourth poll in a row to have Remain on 54%. It does look like there has been a small but discernable shift toward Remain. That's still not anywhere near enough to derail Brexit but the No Dealers are skating on very thin ice.
'Thin ice'? Just 32% back No Deal in that poll, once you take out those who back May's Deal
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Staying permanently in the customs union and having to beg the EU to give us permission to leave it if we wish is NOT Brexit and actually leaves us with less control than we have now as full members.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Because the alternative is no deal, with no preparation because our government is incompetent. But we are where we are as a pretty straight kind of guy once said.
At the moment, my "big" business is facing either no deal, or transition plus a commitment to retain the current arrangement as part of the future partnership. It would take the Deal in a heartbeat.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
It’s not about no deal and never has been. It’s always been about preparing for no dealto give yourself negotiating leverage and options. BTW, under FPTP no deal is as valid as another Leave scenario - oform of Leave was on the ballot paper.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.
Only if they have German citizenship, which most don't and will take a long time to acquire.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.
Only if they have German citizenship, which most don't and will take a long time to acquire.
5-10 years. Which is the timeframe we would be in the EU for.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Big business has been praising the deal all day.
Who
The conservatives potential sudden death as the party of business (despite Corbyn!) will have huge and long-term lasting electoral (and funding) consequences if this plays out towards a no deal scenario. Not rocket science and I hear similar sentiments every day.
The polling on May's deal is early and sketchy *but* it looms remarkably similar to Chequers polling. When you offer voters a preferendum on Deal/No Deal/No Brexit voters say May's deal is by far the least popular choice. Worse still the Remain vote stays solid but the Leave vote splits between May's deal and No Deal.
On of the Iron Laws of antediluvian politics us if you want voters to pick something you frame it as the middle choice between two extremes. But it looms like Brexit is so polarising That's not true here.
May or successor gas a huge task ahead as it looks like any Brexit deal is going to **** off Remainers for being Brexit and most Leavers for not being a Unicorn.
Were it to pass I don't doubt the Tories would take a big hit as no one seems to like it much for the reasons you give. All people know is it is a compromise no one likes, and remainiacs are promising strength and stability will return with them and newdealers are peddling a fantasy about easy renegotiation. But frankly they look certain split or close as split anyway, so it makes no difference as to if they should try for it or not.
What.is.the.point.of.changing.the.deal.if.the.EU.won't.accept.it? If it was something that could be tweaked to avoid catastrophic reaction you can be damn sure it wouldn't be in there now.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.
It was always a bluff if you didn’t prepare for it and being found out trying to run a bluff, an unconvincing bluff at that, is fatal to negotiations as May has found out to. Britain’s cost
Nah. No sane government could ever contemplate no deal. As we have seen. In Jacob Rees-Mogg fantasy land (and perhaps yours) maybe. But not in the real world.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Agreed.
Yes, they are complete w@nkers.
So ERG have now lost the support of the Mail and the Express??
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
There was no point preparing for it as there was no majority public support for it, that is the whole point.
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
The only point in not preparing for it is if you were always going to take whatever you were given, no matter how bad. Denying yourself options is asinine and that is what May has done by failing to prepare for no deal.
Well that is the truth I am afraid, Leave only scraped a narrow 52% win in the EUref by promising voters it would be the easiest Deal in history.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
Actually, I think a large-ish chunk of the leave vote was actually for No Deal in a way, because the consequences of leaving weren’t spelt out to them. So sure was Dave of his referendum victory that he never really explained what would happen if leave won. Yes there was project fear, but there was nothing along the lines of “we’d have to negotiate a new relationship with the EU to try and safeguard our economy and jobs and if we couldn’t get that, yes, there’s a risk we’d crash out with no deal”. It was all very vague. And from the other side all we got was “Take Back Control. Free Movement. Blue Passports. Trade Deals. NHS Cash.”
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.
May and Robbins have delivered Remain (but dressed it up as some one leg in/one leg out nonsense) by tying us up in the CU forever.
FPT The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.
Fraser:
But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.
Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Businesses have come out strongly tonight in favour
Which ones specifically? (Genuine question, I've not seen any in coverage)
The frustrating thing is I watched a video on twitter today with several businesses actively supporting it.
However, i have read and seen so much today I honestly cannot reference it
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Staying permanently in the customs union and having to beg the EU to leave it if we wish is NOT Brexit and actually leaves us with less control than we have now as full members.
The agreement does not require us to stay permanently in the CU. It does keep us in for a transitional period which is necessary because we have not carried out any preparations for an alternative. It gets us out of the EU so we no longer have to bother with MEPs or EU conferences, it gives us back control of our borders, it means we make our own laws except in so far as these affect the SM, it largely stops the payments. We are out of the CAP and will be out of the CFP within 2 years. Its a bloody good first step.
Instead we face a real risk of being stuck as supplicants back in the EU without some of our opt outs, probably without our rebate and absolutely no influence in any event as we will be a complete laughing stock.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Agreed.
Yes, they are complete w@nkers.
So ERG have now lost the support of the Mail and the Express??
Just occurs to me that possibly the reason the Express supports May's deal is that it's now owned by whatever-it-was-Trinity MIrror-renamed-themselves-to.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.
Only if they have German citizenship, which most don't and will take a long time to acquire.
5-10 years. Which is the timeframe we would be in the EU for.
Acquiring German citizenship requires a successful asylum claim first (and many will be rejected) and need to be fluent in German. Anyone who has managed that is likely to want to stay in the successful, high wage, high employment German economy.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.
Almost amusingly the pig headedness of certain leavers may lead to remain, while the pig headedness of some remainers risks no deal (though I put that at less a chance than remain). Bunch of hypocrites the both sets of them. claiming to be willing to do much to avoid certain outcomes or that certain states (eg being in the EU/no deal) are so bad and yet happy to see them happen on the chance of getting their perfect solution.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.
May and Robbins have delivered Remain (but dressed it up as some one leg in/one leg out nonsense) but tying us up in the CU forever.
The Customs Union only affects goods. 20% of the economy. 80% would be outside. Criminal justice is outside. Immigration is outside. CFP amd CAP is outside. If you think that is Remain you are an idiot.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Staying permanently in the customs union and having to beg the EU to leave it if we wish is NOT Brexit and actually leaves us with less control than we have now as full members.
The agreement does not require us to stay permanently in the CU. It does keep us in for a transitional period which is necessary because we have not carried out any preparations for an alternative. It gets us out of the EU so we no longer have to bother with MEPs or EU conferences, it gives us back control of our borders, it means we make our own laws except in so far as these affect the SM, it largely stops the payments. We are out of the CAP and will be out of the CFP within 2 years. Its a bloody good first step.
Instead we face a real risk of being stuck as supplicants back in the EU without some of our opt outs, probably without our rebate and absolutely no influence in any event as we will be a complete laughing stock.
Believe me, living outside the UK it's quite clear that the UK is already an international laughing stock.
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.
It was always a bluff if you didn’t prepare for it and being found out trying to run a bluff, an unconvincing bluff at that, is fatal to negotiations as May has found out to. Britain’s cost
Nah. No sane government could ever contemplate no deal. As we have seen. In Jacob Rees-Mogg fantasy land (and perhaps yours) maybe. But not in the real world.
Big difference between preparing for no deal just in case it happens and preparing for no deal because you actually want it.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Yes, Brexiteers delivering Remain would be the sweetest irony ever.
There have been times today when I honestly thought that many of them deserved nothing less.
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Agreed.
Yes, they are complete w@nkers.
So ERG have now lost the support of the Mail and the Express??
Just occurs to me that possibly the reason the Express supports May's deal is that it's now owned by whatever-it-was-Trinity MIrror-renamed-themselves-to.
No - General Election. You think a minority government could last when they have has many serial rebels as they do ? (bear in mind in this scenario a deal is passed, meaning dozens of angry Brexiteers keen to retaliate).
Absolutely they have. I would now say that there is a 30-40% chance of no Brexit at all, up from less than 10% last week. This is a direct result of complete pillocks looking a gift horse in the mouth, failing to recognise that the May deal, whilst far from perfect, delivered on the key elements of the Brexit vote and, most critically of all, got us out of the European swamp, if not completely onto dry land.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
If there is a Remain vote by next March we will never leave at all, just Remain on current terms with Article 50 cancelled
And unlimited immigration, including from all those Middle Eastern migrants to Germany.
We can remove them after 3 months and net immigration from the EU has fallen since the Leave vote
I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.
Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
You miss the point. If you do t prepare for no deal, you have to take what you are given- which is what May has done.
You can't blame Hammond. If he'd said once he was installed as Chancellor, right, let's start paving over Kent, at the very least he'd have been denounced for propagating Project Fear. Remember, it was going to be the easiest deal ever.
There is a lot more to preparing for no deal than building lorry parks. As it happens, he hasn’t authorised expenditure for even that. He is a disgrace and a v poor Chancellor compared to say Howe and Lawson.
No deal was always a bluff. Prepare as much as you like but it was never going to happen. It was a bluff. We need to move on.
It was always a bluff if you didn’t prepare for it and being found out trying to run a bluff, an unconvincing bluff at that, is fatal to negotiations as May has found out to. Britain’s cost
If I say I am preparing to stick a red hot poker up my bum, most people will guess I am bluffing, however earnest I might try to be. No Deal planning suffered from a similar lack of authenticity. The EU aren't complete idiots.
Why on earth would business leaders do that. There is nothing in May’s Brexit deal for them and Hammond has done nothing to attract inward investment or boost productivity as Chancellor.
Big business has been praising the deal all day.
Who
The conservatives potential sudden death as the party of business (despite Corbyn!) will have huge and long-term lasting electoral (and funding) consequences if this plays out towards a no deal scenario. Not rocket science and I hear similar sentiments every day.
No Deal is, and always has been, the preferred end state of the ERG. Why it has taken mainstream Conservatives so long to see this is the real mystery.
No - General Election. You think a minority government could last when they have has many serial rebels as they do ? (bear in mind in this scenario a deal is passed, meaning dozens of angry Brexiteers keen to retaliate).
May should tell them to vote with their consciences. I don't think we will be seeing a VOTC on the floor of the house quite yet
Comments
If all the headbangers crossed the floor instead of infesting the Conservative Party I might be able to vote for them again
*opens more booze*
This.is.the.deal.
Brussels. Will. Not. Negotiate. A. New. One. Even if you ask nicely.
Turned out to be around 30.
Difficult to believe Mogg would have put his letter in otherwise.
Perhaps he has been duped???
https://twitter.com/BobbyFriedman/status/1063088968726708225
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/15/johnny-bobbitt-gofundme-scam-arrest-viral-gas-story-couple-charged
The only sustainable Brexit is one with a Deal or single market and or customs union, No Deal just leads to Remain ie no Brexit at all
If this is the end result - and more moderate - the ERG rebels only have themselves to blame.
There are very few politicians of the calibre of, say, Hague and Clarke, who have been very measured in their response to the deal. I have no doubt that they dislike elements of it, perhaps for different reasons, but they understand that this is the best it’s going to get and they’re willing to give it a shot. It is sad that there are so many pygmies on each side of the Commons who can’t produce a measured and statesmanlike response to this (even if they disagree with the deal) and instead just scream their agenda from the rooftops like spoilt brats.
I want them all out.
So a manual count would be like a UK count, you get all the papers and manually count the filled in ovals. Doing just one race wouldn't be super difficult.
On of the Iron Laws of antediluvian politics us if you want voters to pick something you frame it as the middle choice between two extremes. But it looms like Brexit is so polarising That's not true here.
May or successor gas a huge task ahead as it looks like any Brexit deal is going to **** off Remainers for being Brexit and most Leavers for not being a Unicorn.
If the ERG have their way, and the EU can be persuaded we are still worth it, we might be stuck in the EU for another generation. They are so self defeating it is almost beyond belief. Morons.
Had voters thought there been a real prospect of No Deal Leave would never have won at all and hence the potential reversal of Brexit will grow stronger by the day if Parliament votes down May's deal
Throwing it back to the people somehow is a defeat of the purpose of parliament, but they are incapable of delivering.
However, i have read and seen so much today I honestly cannot reference it
It was real though
Instead we face a real risk of being stuck as supplicants back in the EU without some of our opt outs, probably without our rebate and absolutely no influence in any event as we will be a complete laughing stock.
Why it has taken mainstream Conservatives so long to see this is the real mystery.
I've never seen the like!