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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A massive Westminster day ends with TMay still in place

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    shiney2 said:

    This Week considers Brexit:.. there is no way yada yada.

    Perfect.

    The Peoples' LEAVE is coming..

    Portillo seemed to think it will play out as I suggested which is that the Cabinet, realizing that the deal is dead and the DUP are going to pull the plug, will then step in and tell May to resign as she's lost their confidence.
    And afterwards?

    The ERG pulled back today
    In what way?

    It appears they tried to launch a VONC and don't (yet) have the numbers to pass the first hurdle....
    It's notable that a number of ERG members are "reluctantly" backing the deal.
    Given the state of opinion in the country, and the preparedness of the UK, my view is that if we don’t back this we’ll end up back in the EU, either by Parliamentary mechanisms and a GE or as an inevitable outcome of No Deal, which simply doesn’t command enough support.

    I’m not happy about it but the imperative for me is for us to quit the EU’s political structures and institutions and for Brexit to take real effect in a sustainable way. The longer it is, the more normified it will be and the harder it will be to take us back in.

    Worth remembering too that nothing is forever, including this, and it can and will be superseded in the future if the politics demands it.
    Which is why remainers should vote against the deal and sensible leavers support it.

    How many ideological Remainers are there, though? I do not like May's deal. It is sub-optimal. But it is the best we are going to get and in reality it will change nothing beyond the symbolic and it will give some more control over immigration, which is important to a lot of decent people (even if I think that most are not that concerned by EU immigration). We will become a rule-taker, but it will not be onerous. My sense is that if May can head off the moon-howlers, there is scope for the mood in the Commons to change as Tory MPs and others spend time in their constituencies and come to understand that No Deal would be a disaster from which this country would take many, many years to recover from.

    I agree. The point is that if the deal flies, it takes us toward Leave, and if it sinks, toward Remain.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    edited November 2018

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo says May's Deal worse than remaining in the EU on This Week, says the Cabinet must remove her

    Wonderful how these armchair Generals always have easy answers. And yet enacting them ....

    Not hard to understand that. The HoC is full of Remainers who want nothing to do with Brexit and don’t respect the referendum
    Much easier to blame "Remainers" than admit that the real world is complicated.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    I see that TMay invoked the name of the great Sir Geoffrey Boycott .

    Well she certainly shares his limpet qualities, his complete focus on himself and his rather vague understanding of it being a team game.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    edited November 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    Roger said:

    How she has the energy and will is beyond me.
    David Allan Green made an interesting observation - what have been weaknesses up to now - detail orientation, stubbornness, determination - could now be great strengths in getting the UK out of the EU in an orderly manner next March. She knows this stuff inside out and back to front - and politely points out the flaws in the unicorn-chasers' "plans". She thinks she's got the best plan available under the circumstances - ending FOM without trashing the economy - which will deliver a Brexit deal most could live with, and by god she'll drive it through.
    The issue with the deal is that it will lead to a perpetual vassal status for the UK vis-a-vis the EU, and thus prevents independent freedom of action regarding commerce and trade deals.


    But there is no such thing as "perpetual".

    Hitler on the verge of invading France is interrupted by his lawyer. "Fuhrer! Disaster, we cannot invade France as we signed a treaty pledging peace."

    "Can we not rescind the treaty?"

    "Sadly there is no mechanism for that. We are stuck in perpetual peace with France."

    "Drat! But if that's what the treaty says..."

    The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state. It leaves us largely unable to make our own trade deals; but, realistically, the journey from where we are now to one where we have more - and more comprehensive - deals than the EU would be a very long one. It leaves the state of Northern Ireland compromised; but, then again, if the people of Northern Ireland got a vote on this, then they'd probably choose this semi-detached status.

    It gets rid of 80+% of EU regulation. It gets us out of the CAP and the CFP. It means we control our own laws on who votes and who enters the country. It gets us out of the political structure of the EU and perpetual integration.

    It is the deal that 50% of Remainers and 75% of Leavers are happy with. It is the deal that reflects the fact that the vote was a close one.
    I accept that in practice "perpetual" is never true, but disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." in the sense that there is no "end date". However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    IanB2 said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    On the Cote d'Azur the number of French who speak English has reached epidemic proportions but what I didn't realize till last week-end was that it has now spread to Paris.

    It was difficult to order a drink in French without being answered in English.

    A pity really and one of the few downsides of the EU bringing us closer together.

    English is the first language in the western world with Spanish a close second. French does not come close.
    President Macron, while plugging La Francophonie, is also trying to improve English lessons in French schools.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/20/macron-launches-drive-to-boost-french-language-around-world

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/11/france-encourage-children-watch-cartoons-english-drive-improve/
    Even here in rural SE Spain trying to learn Spanish which I've done since i arrived is difficult when most of the locals want to answer you in English!
    The same in Italy. This summer one even said to me "it's easier", which I took as a judgement on my Italian rather than an evaluation of the respective languages.
    Au contraire [sic] -here in the rural depths my correctly pronounced Spanish is way better than their sloppy grammar and lazy accents. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Good morning, everyone.

    Have we had any members of the Cabinet declare that they are not resigning?

    JRM isn't resigning. But then no-one has trusted him with anything worth resigning from.
  • Pulpstar said:


    How many ideological Remainers are there, though?

    Southam, have you seen Twitter recently :) ?

    Twitter is not representative of anything but Twitter. My guess is that 60% to 70% of the country could live with May's deal. It's not great, she has made it all a whole lot harder than it should have been, but we have the only deal that her ridiculous red lines would allow - and, most important, there is no viable alternative.

  • Pulpstar said:
    It's been slow but it was a Blue Wave.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    shiney2 said:

    This Week considers Brexit:.. there is no way yada yada.

    Perfect.

    The Peoples' LEAVE is coming..

    Portillo seemed to think it will play out as I suggested which is that the Cabinet, realizing that the deal is dead and the DUP are going to pull the plug, will then step in and tell May to resign as she's lost their confidence.
    And afterwards?

    The ERG pulled back today
    In what way?

    It appears they tried to launch a VONC and don't (yet) have the numbers to pass the first hurdle....
    It's notable that a number of ERG members are "reluctantly" backing the deal.
    Given the state of opinion in the country, and the preparedness of the UK, my view is that if we don’t back this we’ll end up back in the EU, either by Parliamentary mechanisms and a GE or as an inevitable outcome of No Deal, which simply doesn’t command enough support.

    I’m not happy about it but the imperative for me is for us to quit the EU’s political structures and institutions and for Brexit to take real effect in a sustainable way. The longer it is, the more normified it will be and the harder it will be to take us back in.

    Worth remembering too that nothing is forever, including this, and it can and will be superseded in the future if the politics demands it.
    Why is it imperative? We've been in for decades and I've not noticed any particular drawback. If you think we would be better off out I am happy to listen. But it is now pretty obvious that rushing the leaving process is pretty sub optimal.
    I’m not debating Brexit with you all over again.

    I am stating my position on the deal. As a very strong Remainer, it’s obvious what your game is as it should be obvious to the purer eurosceptics who are letting emotion cloud their judgement.
    I think the Euro skeptics have spotted the trap you are missing. I am quite happy with May's deal. As long as we are in the Customs Union the route back into the EU is short and simple. We can save a lot of trouble by simply stopping the process now.
    But, that works both ways.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    On the Cote d'Azur the number of French who speak English has reached epidemic proportions but what I didn't realize till last week-end was that it has now spread to Paris.

    It was difficult to order a drink in French without being answered in English.

    A pity really and one of the few downsides of the EU bringing us closer together.

    English is the first language in the western world with Spanish a close second. French does not come close.
    President Macron, while plugging La Francophonie, is also trying to improve English lessons in French schools.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/20/macron-launches-drive-to-boost-french-language-around-world

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/11/france-encourage-children-watch-cartoons-english-drive-improve/
    Even here in rural SE Spain trying to learn Spanish which I've done since i arrived is difficult when most of the locals want to answer you in English!

    And their Spanish is incomprehensible! Going to Andalucia to learn Spanish is like going to Glasgow to learn English!!

    Es verdad!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    daodao said:

    I disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.

    "Perpetual" means "never ending or changing".

    I will bet you £5 that the UK-EU customs union ends before the heat death of the universe. I'll even offer you 10-1 if you like,
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    rcs1000 said:

    Hello from LA.

    Immediately after the referendum, Mrs May and her Ministers went on a charm offensive. They went to visit the car companies, they went to visit big financial services firms and other manufacturers.

    They told all and sundry that Britain remained open for business, that they could (and should) continue to have their European headquarters in Britain, and that the government would be extremely supportive of business's needs.

    Their concern was that large firms would defer investment decisions, or - in extremis - reduce their UK presence.

    This publicity drive was the reason that the government made no preparations for No Deal. They couldn't risk scaring the people they'd told there would be a deal.

    The government put themselves in a very difficult position. If they hadn't made the efforts with business, well maybe some people would have gone. Certainly, the possibility of an abrupt exit from the EU's rules on avoiding withholding taxes and double taxation would have had a negative effect on firms where the UK entity was the holding company for all the European assets.

    But in doing this, they made it very hard to walk away from the negotiating table with the EU. They'd committed themselves to a deal. They'd committed themselves to no preparation for No Deal. This wasn't an act of secret EU Remainers, it was the act of a government seeking to allay the concerns of business in the immediate post Brexit period.

    I don't know how the circle could be easily squared. Perhaps the post Brexit referendum resilience of the UK economy is at least partly due to the reassurances given to the business community, and perhaps it isn't that all.

    The circle that can't be squared is inherent to Brexit. Given that and that Brexit doesn't offer a single improvement over the status quo, the draft Withdrawal Agreement is not bad. It manages to avoid chaos and avoid Vassalage after the end of the transition . It may not be viable in its current form however and it will certainly damage the economy. The only reason why we are doing this is because we rejected the EU in a vote without considering the alternatives
  • rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    Roger said:

    How she has the energy and will is beyond me.
    David Allan Green made an interesting observation - what have been weaknesses up to now - detail orientation, stubbornness, determination - could now be great strengths in getting the UK out of the EU in an orderly manner next March. She knows this stuff inside out and back to front - and politely points out the flaws in the unicorn-chasers' "plans". She thinks she's got the best plan available under the circumstances - ending FOM without trashing the economy - which will deliver a Brexit deal most could live with, and by god she'll drive it through.
    The issue with the deal is that it will lead to a perpetual vassal status for the UK vis-a-vis the EU, and thus prevents independent freedom of action regarding commerce and trade deals.


    But there is no such thing as "perpetual".

    Hitler on the verge of invading France is interrupted by his lawyer. "Fuhrer! Disaster, we cannot invade France as we signed a treaty pledging peace."

    "Can we not rescind the treaty?"

    "Sadly there is no mechanism for that. We are stuck in perpetual peace with France."

    "Drat! But if that's what the treaty says..."

    The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state. It leaves us largely unable to make our own trade deals; but, realistically, the journey from where we are now to one where we have more - and more comprehensive - deals than the EU would be a very long one. It leaves the state of Northern Ireland compromised; but, then again, if the people of Northern Ireland got a vote on this, then they'd probably choose this semi-detached status.

    It gets rid of 80+% of EU regulation. It gets us out of the CAP and the CFP. It means we control our own laws on who votes and who enters the country. It gets us out of the political structure of the EU and perpetual integration.

    It is the deal that 50% of Remainers and 75% of Leavers are happy with. It is the deal that reflects the fact that the vote was a close one.
    Yep.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    shiney2 said:

    This Week considers Brexit:.. there is no way yada yada.

    Perfect.

    The Peoples' LEAVE is coming..

    Portillo seemed to think it will play out as I suggested which is that the Cabinet, realizing that the deal is dead and the DUP are going to pull the plug, will then step in and tell May to resign as she's lost their confidence.
    And afterwards?

    The ERG pulled back today
    In what way?

    It appears they tried to launch a VONC and don't (yet) have the numbers to pass the first hurdle....
    It's notable that a number of ERG members are "reluctantly" backing the deal.
    Given the state of opinion in the country, and the preparedness of the UK, my view is that if we don’t back this we’ll end up back in the EU, either by Parliamentary mechanisms and a GE or as an inevitable outcome of No Deal, which simply doesn’t command enough support.

    I’m not happy about it but the imperative for me is for us to quit the EU’s political structures and institutions and for Brexit to take real effect in a sustainable way. The longer it is, the more normified it will be and the harder it will be to take us back in.

    Worth remembering too that nothing is forever, including this, and it can and will be superseded in the future if the politics demands it.
    Why is it imperative? We've been in for decades and I've not noticed any particular drawback. If you think we would be better off out I am happy to listen. But it is now pretty obvious that rushing the leaving process is pretty sub optimal.
    I’m not debating Brexit with you all over again.

    I am stating my position on the deal. As a very strong Remainer, it’s obvious what your game is as it should be obvious to the purer eurosceptics who are letting emotion cloud their judgement.
    I think the Euro skeptics have spotted the trap you are missing. I am quite happy with May's deal. As long as we are in the Customs Union the route back into the EU is short and simple. We can save a lot of trouble by simply stopping the process now.
    But, that works both ways.
    I think, once we're officially out, the chances of rejoining are extremely slight. We may move closer to the EU, we may move further away, but I would be staggered if we were to rejoin in my lifetime.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Hello from LA.

    Immediately after the referendum, Mrs May and her Ministers went on a charm offensive. They went to visit the car companies, they went to visit big financial services firms and other manufacturers.

    They told all and sundry that Britain remained open for business, that they could (and should) continue to have their European headquarters in Britain, and that the government would be extremely supportive of business's needs.

    Their concern was that large firms would defer investment decisions, or - in extremis - reduce their UK presence.

    This publicity drive was the reason that the government made no preparations for No Deal. They couldn't risk scaring the people they'd told there would be a deal.

    The government put themselves in a very difficult position. If they hadn't made the efforts with business, well maybe some people would have gone. Certainly, the possibility of an abrupt exit from the EU's rules on avoiding withholding taxes and double taxation would have had a negative effect on firms where the UK entity was the holding company for all the European assets.

    But in doing this, they made it very hard to walk away from the negotiating table with the EU. They'd committed themselves to a deal. They'd committed themselves to no preparation for No Deal. This wasn't an act of secret EU Remainers, it was the act of a government seeking to allay the concerns of business in the immediate post Brexit period.

    I don't know how the circle could be easily squared. Perhaps the post Brexit referendum resilience of the UK economy is at least partly due to the reassurances given to the business community, and perhaps it isn't that all.

    I don’t think it’s a conspiracy. I do think it’s symptomatic of the innate conservatism (small c) and risk aversion of the civil service, which rears itself in all aspects of Government policy.

    I think a braver leader would have told business they’d seriously prepare for no deal from the start, and to be prepared for that outcome but, that wasn’t what they wanted, and they were doing it to put maximum pressure on the EU for the best deal possible.

    Telling business to prepare seriously for a No Deal outcome would have meant telling a lot of big manufacturing operations to get ready to move their production to other parts of the world and a lot of inward investors to look elsewhere.

  • DavidL said:

    If Theresa May can survive to take this to the meaningful vote it will be defeated in the first instance. It then looks like there are a couple of alternatives.

    1. After failing with a vote of no confidence, the Labour frontbench adopts a second referendum as policy and the deal passes the Commons when May makes that concession. It's worth remembering that this is a concession she can offer, unlike many that will be demanded that would require a concession from the EU.

    2. In the face of the threat of a second referendum the ERG and Labour Leavers cave and support May's deal in a second Commons vote.

    This is why the ERG have made a move against May. If she survives then she finds a way to avoid a no-deal. If they can bring her down then they can create enough chaos and confusion for four months to achieve the no deal Brexit they want.

    There will be immense pressure on May to stand down when the Commons rejects her deal in the meaningful vote. But she seems to be the only hope for avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

    I am not entirely sure that even the limpet May could survive (a) the first defeat and (b) the offer of a second referendum.
    A serious run on the pound, FTSE collapse and factory closure announcements might concentrate minds. So far I suspect no one has believed the UK could be that stupid to do a crash out Brexit - so its not priced in. Which other grown up would replace May?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    I disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.

    "Perpetual" means "never ending or changing".

    I will bet you £5 that the UK-EU customs union ends before the heat death of the universe. I'll even offer you 10-1 if you like,
    It'll be a pity if Brexit is undone because Brexit Ultras can't compose themselves with a modicum of patience. We spent a long time in the EU. A gentle undocking over time would be better (and more respectful of a substantial minority who would like to reverse course!) than simply stripping naked and hurling ourselves out of the EU window.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    DavidL said:

    If Theresa May can survive to take this to the meaningful vote it will be defeated in the first instance. It then looks like there are a couple of alternatives.

    1. After failing with a vote of no confidence, the Labour frontbench adopts a second referendum as policy and the deal passes the Commons when May makes that concession. It's worth remembering that this is a concession she can offer, unlike many that will be demanded that would require a concession from the EU.

    2. In the face of the threat of a second referendum the ERG and Labour Leavers cave and support May's deal in a second Commons vote.

    This is why the ERG have made a move against May. If she survives then she finds a way to avoid a no-deal. If they can bring her down then they can create enough chaos and confusion for four months to achieve the no deal Brexit they want.

    There will be immense pressure on May to stand down when the Commons rejects her deal in the meaningful vote. But she seems to be the only hope for avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

    I am not entirely sure that even the limpet May could survive (a) the first defeat and (b) the offer of a second referendum.
    A serious run on the pound, FTSE collapse and factory closure announcements might concentrate minds. So far I suspect no one has believed the UK could be that stupid to do a crash out Brexit - so its not priced in. Which other grown up would replace May?
    There's a chap called archer101au who's itching for the job.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DavidL said:

    I see that TMay invoked the name of the great Sir Geoffrey Boycott .

    Well she certainly shares his limpet qualities, his complete focus on himself and his rather vague understanding of it being a team game.
    When some of your team are playing crap, you call them into the middle just like the Sri Lanka captain just did and give them a damn good bollocking.
    The Captain has to be slightly apart from the team.. whilst being in the team..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    I disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.

    "Perpetual" means "never ending or changing".

    I will bet you £5 that the UK-EU customs union ends before the heat death of the universe. I'll even offer you 10-1 if you like,
    It'll be a pity if Brexit is undone because Brexit Ultras can't compose themselves with a modicum of patience. We spent a long time in the EU. A gentle undocking over time would be better (and more respectful of a substantial minority who would like to reverse course!) than simply stripping naked and hurling ourselves out of the EU window.
    Well yes.

    I am increasingly optimistic that the House of Commons will - reluctantly - back this deal.

    I've loaded up on Dixons shares in anticipation.
  • IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    shiney2 said:

    This Week considers Brexit:.. there is no way yada yada.

    Perfect.

    The Peoples' LEAVE is coming..

    Portillo seemed to think it will play out as I suggested which is that the Cabinet, realizing that the deal is dead and the DUP are going to pull the plug, will then step in and tell May to resign as she's lost their confidence.
    And afterwards?

    The ERG pulled back today
    In what way?

    It appears they tried to launch a VONC and don't (yet) have the numbers to pass the first hurdle....
    It's notable that a number of ERG members are "reluctantly" backing the deal.
    Given the state of opinion in the country, and the preparedness of the UK, my view is that if we don’t back this we’ll end up back in the EU, either by Parliamentary mechanisms and a GE or as an inevitable outcome of No Deal, which simply doesn’t command enough support.

    I’m not happy about it but the imperative for me is for us to quit the EU’s political structures and institutions and for Brexit to take real effect in a sustainable way. The longer it is, the more normified it will be and the harder it will be to take us back in.

    Worth remembering too that nothing is forever, including this, and it can and will be superseded in the future if the politics demands it.
    Which is why remainers should vote against the deal and sensible leavers support it.

    How many ideological Remainers are there, though? I do not like May's deal. It is sub-optimal. But it is the best we are going to get and in reality it will change nothing beyond the symbolic and it will give some more control over immigration, which is important to a lot of decent people (even if I think that most are not that concerned by EU immigration). We will become a rule-taker, but it will not be onerous. My sense is that if May can head off the moon-howlers, there is scope for the mood in the Commons to change as Tory MPs and others spend time in their constituencies and come to understand that No Deal would be a disaster from which this country would take many, many years to recover from.

    'Sub-optimal' and 'the best we are going to get' is probably right.
    However, staying in would be better - leading Brexiteers have said so and opinion appears to be going that way. Why cut off our nose to spite our face?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    A serious run on the pound, FTSE collapse and factory closure announcements might concentrate minds. So far I suspect no one has believed the UK could be that stupid to do a crash out Brexit - so its not priced in. Which other grown up would replace May?

    The way things are going it will probably be Genesis P-Orridge,
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    New Thread.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    rcs1000 said:



    It is the deal that 50% of Remainers and 75% of Leavers are happy with. It is the deal that reflects the fact that the vote was a close one.

    Where do you get these figures? They are in stark contrast to polling so far (Rory Stewart got in trouble for saying something similar - he had to admit he'd conjured them up).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    daodao said:

    I disagree with your statement that "The May deal does not leave us as a perpetual vassal state." However, much of what you state is valid, and it may be better to look at the deal as a "cup half full", as the alternatives are likely to be much worse. I was merely highlighting the key issue, as I see things. I am not concerned about the implications for the 6 counties, as they are on the road to rejoining the rest of Ireland to make a whole nation once again.

    "Perpetual" means "never ending or changing".

    I will bet you £5 that the UK-EU customs union ends before the heat death of the universe. I'll even offer you 10-1 if you like,
    It'll be a pity if Brexit is undone because Brexit Ultras can't compose themselves with a modicum of patience. We spent a long time in the EU. A gentle undocking over time would be better (and more respectful of a substantial minority who would like to reverse course!) than simply stripping naked and hurling ourselves out of the EU window.
    Well yes.

    I am increasingly optimistic that the House of Commons will - reluctantly - back this deal.

    I've loaded up on Dixons shares in anticipation.
    I was totally confident of that at the beginning of the week but yesterday was a shocker and no mistake. So many people will have to climb down from such peaks of pomposity that it is hard to imagine it happening any time soon. May's deal is the pragmatic thing to do but pragmatism is being trounced by vanity and self perceived virtuosity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    May advises against political betting
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537
    Roger said:

    I think she's the best Tory leader since Heath. Always calm and always polite which is quite an achievement when faced with the nastiest bunch of self serving narcissists I can ever remember in all the time I've been interested in politics. How she has the energy and will is beyond me.
    On politeness we are remarkably blessed with May and Corbyn, two of the calmest and most civil leaders in my recollection. Cyclefree has lightly suggested it's a very British thing to put good manners at the top of a list of qualifications for PM, and I see what she means, but it's a virtue nonetheless.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:



    I don't believe in using government subsidy to prop up Welsh to a status beyond it's natural position. Its not an issue of cultural homogenisation, but fiscal rectitude.


    Hilarious .. "it's natural position" .. you seem to have enough difficulty with English.

    And then "Its not " fails to have an apostrophe!!
    As I’ve proved, English is a sufficiently difficult language to learn as it is.

    Incidentally, I don’t see Gaelic translations across Scotland. I wonder why Welsh is so fetishised across the nation?
    You've not been on ScotRail - virtually every station in the Central Belt and south of there has a Gaelic name on the platform signs.
    I suspect Mortimer has not left his Shropshire bunker for a long time.
    Even then, Barclays in Church Stretton has bilingual signage, as do the Shropshire trains, which are mostly operated by Transport for Wales...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    DavidL said:

    I see that TMay invoked the name of the great Sir Geoffrey Boycott .

    Well she certainly shares his limpet qualities, his complete focus on himself and his rather vague understanding of it being a team game.
    When some of your team are playing crap, you call them into the middle just like the Sri Lanka captain just did and give them a damn good bollocking.
    The Captain has to be slightly apart from the team.. whilst being in the team..
    I seem to remember that another Geoffrey had some comments on the role of the Captain though: "It’s rather like sending our opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find that before the first ball is bowled, their bats have been broken by the team captain. "

    There's been a fair bit of that as well.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:



    I don't believe in using government subsidy to prop up Welsh to a status beyond it's natural position. Its not an issue of cultural homogenisation, but fiscal rectitude.


    Hilarious .. "it's natural position" .. you seem to have enough difficulty with English.

    And then "Its not " fails to have an apostrophe!!
    As I’ve proved, English is a sufficiently difficult language to learn as it is.

    Incidentally, I don’t see Gaelic translations across Scotland. I wonder why Welsh is so fetishised across the nation?
    You've not been on ScotRail - virtually every station in the Central Belt and south of there has a Gaelic name on the platform signs.
    When any signs are replaced , rail , towns, even police cars , etc they are all done in both English and Gaelic
  • rcs1000 said:

    stjohn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Portillo says May's Deal worse than remaining in the EU on This Week, says the Cabinet must remove her

    Wonderful how these armchair Generals always have easy answers. And yet enacting them ....

    Not hard to understand that. The HoC is full of Remainers who want nothing to do with Brexit and don’t respect the referendum
    Much easier to blame "Remainers" than admit that the real world is complicated.
    That’s a non sequitur. Just because the world is complicated, which isn’t in dispute, doesn’t invalidate my criticism of Remainers behaviour in HoC.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    RoyalBlue said:

    I have Welsh relatives with ages from under 10 to over 90, and they can and do speak Welsh to each other.

    My Scottish cousin has a Welsh wife - their household is fully bilingual as are their children.

    I have less sympathy for the Scottish government's teaching of Gaelic throughout Scotland as by the 14th century it had largely been replaced by Scots in all but the Highlands. My grandmother's generation had a very low opinion of Gaelic speakers. That's more of an exhumation than a revival.
    You would be against any benefit in Scotland, your preference is that we are kept downtrodden and forced to speak English, Toom Tabard was a patriot compared to you.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    RoyalBlue said:

    @Mortimer - it’s very depressing to read your posts about the Welsh language. I would hope that somebody with an interest in the history of this country would realise that the English/British government had policies for centuries designed to drive Welsh from the public sphere. It is hardly unreasonable that we now have government efforts to try to reverse some of the damage.

    Your comment about Welsh not being a live language is utterly wrong. I have Welsh relatives with ages from under 10 to over 90, and they can and do speak Welsh to each other.

    Mortimer is a numpty, if you read his normal posts you will understand why he would be so wrong.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Roger said:

    On the Cote d'Azur the number of French who speak English has reached epidemic proportions but what I didn't realize till last week-end was that it has now spread to Paris.

    It was difficult to order a drink in French without being answered in English.

    A pity really and one of the few downsides of the EU bringing us closer together.

    English is the first language in the western world with Spanish a close second. French does not come close.
    President Macron, while plugging La Francophonie, is also trying to improve English lessons in French schools.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/20/macron-launches-drive-to-boost-french-language-around-world

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/11/france-encourage-children-watch-cartoons-english-drive-improve/
    Even here in rural SE Spain trying to learn Spanish which I've done since i arrived is difficult when most of the locals want to answer you in English!

    And their Spanish is incomprehensible! Going to Andalucia to learn Spanish is like going to Glasgow to learn English!!

    Or large parts of England, I have heard much worse accents that are unintelligble in England.
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