politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A massive Westminster day ends with TMay still in place
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A massive Westminster day ends with TMay still in place
Although I disagree with her on so many things you can but admire the way she is holding on and battling forward in spite of all the obstacles and setbacks. This was always going to be a very difficult period for the Prime Minister who took over shortly after the referendum in July 2016 never more so than today.
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First like Jack Leach0
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Unlike her enemies, she ended the day with her dignity intact.0
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Coy tracey0
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Fourth0
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My, she is tenacious, isn't she?0
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May is easy to shift. It just requires the Brexiteers to be able to count.
Hang on, may be a slight flaw in the plan...0 -
Unflushable.Sunil_Prasannan said:My, she is tenacious, isn't she?
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Is there a list somewhere of those MPs who've publicly admitted to sending a letter so far?0
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Clearly the letters to Brady have all been posted early on pb.com threads and lost in the bowels of the vanilla commenting system.0
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Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier0
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I think we should pay a lot less attention to the ERG in future. They are clearly not the well-organised highly disciplined party within a party that the media have portrayed.0
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Feeble. Less ERG more ER?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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Our Ambassador to Burma wrote his Master's Thesis on the Oasis song 'Wonderwall' according to 'Inside the FO' on BBC20
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https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may-letters-factbox/factbox-who-has-submitted-letters-of-no-confidence-in-pm-may-idUKKCN1NK2AUAndyJS said:Is there a list somewhere of those MPs who've publicly admitted to sending a letter so far?
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If Cameron had faced down the swivel-eyed loons we wouldn't be in this messOblitusSumMe said:I think we should pay a lot less attention to the ERG in future.
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If the 48-threshold is reached tomorrow does that mean the vote wouldn't happen until Monday so this would be hanging over everyone all weekend with a VONC called but not yet having happened?0
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I think it is far too early to call the ERG’s move a failure.
I wish they hadn’t done it, but they generally achieve their objectives when they act.0 -
So why did their unofficial leader call a big press conference and state that he was doing so himself?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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I think they should seriously consider re-branding - for a group with that "R" in the title, they seem to do precious little research.HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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Thanks very much. 14 isn't very many to declare openly.El_Capitano said:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may-letters-factbox/factbox-who-has-submitted-letters-of-no-confidence-in-pm-may-idUKKCN1NK2AUAndyJS said:Is there a list somewhere of those MPs who've publicly admitted to sending a letter so far?
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Only because no-one has called their bluff before. Now it has been called and we find that Jacob wasn't holding a winning hand after all.Mortimer said:I think it is far too early to call the ERG’s move a failure.
I wish they hadn’t done it, but they generally achieve their objectives when they act.0 -
For an organisation that has been “achieving its objectives” for a long period of time, they sure don’t seem very happy.Mortimer said:I think it is far too early to call the ERG’s move a failure.
I wish they hadn’t done it, but they generally achieve their objectives when they act.0 -
Anybody heard anything from Javid today? Hunt? Boris?
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He didn't even need to face them down. All he needed to do was ignore them.Scott_P said:
If Cameron had faced down the swivel-eyed loons we wouldn't be in this messOblitusSumMe said:I think we should pay a lot less attention to the ERG in future.
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If Brady received the 48th letter the afternoon, for example, I doubt anything would have happened yet. And probably wouldn’t until Monday.OblitusSumMe said:
Only because no-one has called their bluff before. Now it has been called and we find that Jacob wasn't holding a winning hand after all.Mortimer said:I think it is far too early to call the ERG’s move a failure.
I wish they hadn’t done it, but they generally achieve their objectives when they act.0 -
Nor, does it seem, they are actually a group...No_Offence_Alan said:
I think they should seriously consider re-branding - for a group with that "R" in the title, they seem to do precious little research.HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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That has been so obvious for so long. They are a shamblesHYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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In that case, May ought to be encouraging her loyalists to send in letters to settle the issue for a year.HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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Sadly trueedmundintokyo said:
He didn't even need to face them down. All he needed to do was ignore them.0 -
Ironically, they are European, even if they don't want to be.rottenborough said:
Nor, does it seem, they are actually a group...No_Offence_Alan said:
I think they should seriously consider re-branding - for a group with that "R" in the title, they seem to do precious little research.HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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They look foolish and cheap. May looks honourable. She won the day.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That has been so obvious for so long. They are a shamblesHYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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Frankly I do not care. TM would win hands downPhilip_Thompson said:If the 48-threshold is reached tomorrow does that mean the vote wouldn't happen until Monday so this would be hanging over everyone all weekend with a VONC called but not yet having happened?
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O/T:
Greens almost there in Germany.
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, Infratest dimap poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+4)
AfD-EFDD: 14% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
FDP-ALDE: 8% (-3)
Field work: 12/11/18 – 14/11/18
Sample size: 1,506"0 -
Mogg apparently has had to pull back after divisions emerged at the ERG meeting of about 30-40 ERG MPs tonight with reservations over launcing a VONC nowalex. said:
So why did their unofficial leader call a big press conference and state that he was doing so himself?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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Pathetic.HYUFD said:
Mogg apparently has had to pull back after divisions emerged at the ERG meeting of about 30-40 ERG MPs tonight with reservations over launcing a VONC nowalex. said:
So why did their unofficial leader call a big press conference and state that he was doing so himself?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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I would just like to say that Rees Mogg is a prat of epic proportions.
A demain...0 -
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Yes. That is possible. I made the argument myself earlier.Mortimer said:
If Brady received the 48th letter the afternoon, for example, I doubt anything would have happened yet. And probably wouldn’t until Monday.OblitusSumMe said:
Only because no-one has called their bluff before. Now it has been called and we find that Jacob wasn't holding a winning hand after all.Mortimer said:I think it is far too early to call the ERG’s move a failure.
I wish they hadn’t done it, but they generally achieve their objectives when they act.
I suppose I was expecting that they would know who had sent a letter in, even if some of those who had didn't want to be public about it. But this doesn't seem to be the case.0 -
She should get a dozen or so of her supporters to put letters in to provoke a VoNC.Jonathan said:
They look foolish and cheap. May looks honourable. She won the day.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That has been so obvious for so long. They are a shamblesHYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
But she won't - she too ethical for that.0 -
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Re Thread header - your first sentence absolutely summarises my feelings too Mike.0
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Mogg is Tony Marlow, circa 1995.0
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I think she is wise not to dignify the moggsters by calling her own vnocBenpointer said:
She should get a dozen or so of her supporters to put letters in to provoke a VoNC.Jonathan said:
They look foolish and cheap. May looks honourable. She won the day.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That has been so obvious for so long. They are a shamblesHYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
But she won't - she too ethical for that.
Today has seen ERG exposed as a sham and no doubt added many to TM cause in her mps0 -
48th - which is about 30 more than Mogg can count to by the looks of it.0
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Why do the words "piss up" and "in a brewery" spring to mind in whenever a Brexiteer hoves into view?HYUFD said:
Mogg apparently has had to pull back after divisions emerged at the ERG meeting of about 30-40 ERG MPs tonight with reservations over launcing a VONC nowalex. said:
So why did their unofficial leader call a big press conference and state that he was doing so himself?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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What an absolute tit Bridgen is!Scott_P said:0 -
AfD also level with SPD, even if Greens get closer to the CDU, CDU + AfD are now on 40%, 3% ahead of SPD + Greens on 37%.AndyJS said:O/T:
Greens almost there in Germany.
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, Infratest dimap poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+4)
AfD-EFDD: 14% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
FDP-ALDE: 8% (-3)
Field work: 12/11/18 – 14/11/18
Sample size: 1,506"
The main movement is still SPD to Green, especially as the CDU are also up 1% in this poll0 -
Talking of Bridgen's brigade.... this has aged wellBenpointer said:
What an absolute tit Bridgen is!Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/10628319272317419530 -
14 last I heard.AndyJS said:Is there a list somewhere of those MPs who've publicly admitted to sending a letter so far?
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I wonder if letters have been withdrawn today. I would not be surprised. If I were Brady I would actively confirm the old ones were still active.0
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And they certainly aren't very European.rottenborough said:
Nor, does it seem, they are actually a group...No_Offence_Alan said:
I think they should seriously consider re-branding - for a group with that "R" in the title, they seem to do precious little research.HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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It's a very big 'if' by the look of it.Philip_Thompson said:If the 48-threshold is reached tomorrow does that mean the vote wouldn't happen until Monday so this would be hanging over everyone all weekend with a VONC called but not yet having happened?
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The damage to the Brexit cause from having Rees Mogg as their most prominent spokesman must be incalculable. He looks like a caricature of upper class twit of the year and if Theresa May gets to stay on she'll largely owe it to Jacob.0
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I am not sure he is allowed to comment on the numbers until 48 are confirmedJonathan said:I wonder if letters have been withdrawn today. I would not be surprised. If I were Brady I would actively confirm the old ones were still active.
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Yeah I imagine some people panic withdrew after Mogg's stupid stunt.Jonathan said:I wonder if letters have been withdrawn today. I would not be surprised. If I were Brady I would actively confirm the old ones were still active.
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I agreeRoger said:The damage to the Brexit cause from having Rees Mogg as their most prominent spokesman must be incalculable. He looks like a caricature of upper class twit of the year and if Theresa May gets to stay on she'll largely owe it to Jacob.
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Rogerdamus has just doomed the PM...Roger said:The damage to the Brexit cause from having Rees Mogg as their most prominent spokesman must be incalculable. He looks like a caricature of upper class twit of the year and if Theresa May gets to stay on she'll largely owe it to Jacob.
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They can't even knife their leader properly. Useless pillocks.HYUFD said:
Mogg apparently has had to pull back after divisions emerged at the ERG meeting of about 30-40 ERG MPs tonight with reservations over launcing a VONC nowalex. said:
So why did their unofficial leader call a big press conference and state that he was doing so himself?HYUFD said:Apparently the ERG have decided not to send in all their letters yet as they do not have the numbers to topple her which means a VONC now would see her stay in place for a year and she could not then be replaced until after Brexit according to C4 news earlier
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When the story of Brexit is written, the change of editor at the Daily Mail may prove to be decisive0
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What the CDU plus AfD are is irrelevant. The CDU will not work with them. Far more likely to work with Greens, as in Hesse. That is a clear majority.HYUFD said:
AfD also level with SPD, even if Greens get closer to the CDU, CDU + AfD are now on 40%, 3% ahead of SPD + Greens on 37%.AndyJS said:O/T:
Greens almost there in Germany.
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
Germany, Infratest dimap poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 26% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 23% (+4)
AfD-EFDD: 14% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
FDP-ALDE: 8% (-3)
Field work: 12/11/18 – 14/11/18
Sample size: 1,506"
The main movement is still SPD to Green, especially as the CDU are also up 1% in this poll0 -
I'm surprised I have to say, but it seems they haven't got the numbers. Pathetic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure he is allowed to comment on the numbers until 48 are confirmedJonathan said:I wonder if letters have been withdrawn today. I would not be surprised. If I were Brady I would actively confirm the old ones were still active.
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I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.0
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Need a chess grandmaster....Don’t 90% of chess matches end up in a drawn out stalemate these days?Scott_P said:0 -
And their circulation is upScott_P said:When the story of Brexit is written, the change of editor at the Daily Mail may prove to be decisive
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Tellls you what muppets the Tory Brexiteers are that Graham Brady still hasn’t received 48 letters after May produces a complete capitluation to the EU over Brexit. Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers.0
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Dacre is gone.
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Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.Jonathan said:I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.0 -
Calls the Brexiteers “peacocking saboteurs”.Scott_P said:0 -
180 degree turn in only a few months. Amazing.williamglenn said:
Calls the Brexiteers “peacocking saboteurs”.Scott_P said:0 -
Hah - I bet he buys stocks at their peak too.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed.AmpfieldAndy said:Tellls you what muppets the Tory Brexiteers are that Graham Brady still hasn’t received 48 letters after May produces a complete capitluation to the EU over Brexit. Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers.
It seems changing PM is not quite as easy as ordering Nanny to change another nappy.0 -
No that can't be right Big_G - because we were assured their editorial line would change back to headbanger Brexit as their circulation declined.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And their circulation is upScott_P said:When the story of Brexit is written, the change of editor at the Daily Mail may prove to be decisive
Or could it just be that DM readers actually quite admire TMay and respect loyalty?0 -
Bit difficult if the govenment takes the amendments first before the meaningful vote, as has been mutedScott_P said:0 -
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.Jonathan said:I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.0 -
Very interesting. There could be an HoC majority for that... and it will strengthen the resolve of Conservative Remainers (and soft-Remainers) not to capitulate to May's deal.Scott_P said:0 -
Seems the owner has played a blinder.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And their circulation is upScott_P said:When the story of Brexit is written, the change of editor at the Daily Mail may prove to be decisive
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Very good!rottenborough said:
Indeed.AmpfieldAndy said:Tellls you what muppets the Tory Brexiteers are that Graham Brady still hasn’t received 48 letters after May produces a complete capitluation to the EU over Brexit. Tory Brexiteers are all mouth and no trousers.
It seems changing PM is not quite as easy as ordering Nanny to change another nappy.
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FPT
The monster of Berlaymont's hatred of Britain wins through.
Fraser:
But the risk, here was always that the EU would take Britain’s best offer then demand more. This is precisely what has just happened. Raab discovered at the last minute that the “backstop” clause for Northern Ireland was no longer a last resort, no longer a bridge to a proper free-trade deal. It was to become the basis on which the final Brexit deal would be built. This had been sneaked into the text at the last minute – with Raab only finding about it once the deal was agreed by No 10.
Perhaps the worst of it was the union. British negotiators picked up word that Martin Selmayr, the chief Brussels bureaucrat, had told his officials that the UK must pay a price for Brexit – and that the price is Northern Ireland. He wanted the Brexit transition deal to be written in such a way that, if the United Kingdom wanted to break free and strike a new arrangement, it would have no choice but to leave Northern Ireland behind.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/15/despite-revulsion-mrs-mays-deal-confident-opponents-wont-move
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Scott_P said:
"A majority of them just want to get on with it" sounds like common sense has not completely left the cabinet.0 -
But as I have just said, amendments are to be voted on first before the vote on the dealEl_Capitano said:
Very interesting. There could be an HoC majority for that... and it will strengthen the resolve of Conservative Remainers (and soft-Remainers) not to capitulate to May's deal.Scott_P said:0 -
DeletedAmpfieldAndy said:
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.Jonathan said:I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.0 -
And when it fails to control immigration, the public will be fuming.El_Capitano said:
Very interesting. There could be an HoC majority for that... and it will strengthen the resolve of Conservative Remainers (and soft-Remainers) not to capitulate to May's deal.Scott_P said:
Remain MPs playing silly buggers and not respecting the result won’t end well.0 -
Yes they have. Wood and trees.Scott_P said:
Of course you can slice it up and pick out the holes. But back in the real world compromise was going to be needed. We now have a deal on the table that is miles better than Cameron’s offering, and critically changes the direction of the ever closer union ratchet. Take it, get it through, and time is on your side Jacob. Over the years we will separate further. Don’t, and you risk nothing, with all the bitterness still festering ( I really fear for us if we do not leave, and trash democracy in the process without having addressed any of Leavers’ concerns, which will not evaporate no matter how much Adonis et al think they will).
Jacob: Take it.0 -
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Just 32% support No Deal with Sky News today, there is no point preparing for it as there is not enough support for it in the country.AmpfieldAndy said:
Hammond is one of the main reasons the Brexit deal is so toxic as he has refused funding for no deal preparation which means we have no negotiating leverage. Javid is a straw man who blows with the wind.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Didn't hear a peep out of certain Cabinet ministers, Javid, Hammond etc.Jonathan said:I get the impression that the serious politicians said as little as possible today.
Much like yesterday, they let the idiots rush to the 24 hour news channels, and sat it out. Wise.
If No Deal had 50% support that would be a different matter but it does not
https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-brits-now-against-brexit-and-back-second-eu-referendum-sky-data-poll-115550780 -
Could pass just if Corbyn and McDonnell back it with Labour (bar Hoey, Field and Stringer), LD, SNP, PC, Green + Tory Remainer voters but EEA means free movement and single market and UKIP back with a vengeanceScott_P said:0
