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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I just wonder if Trump could decide to call it a day and quit

Away from Brexit for a moment and things do not appear to be happy in the White House. This from the excellent Political Wire

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,206
    First!
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    If you want relief from Brexit try this extraordinary story about a mile wide meteor impact - maybe 12000 years ago - and thus a candidate for causing the Younger Dryas. This sort of Catastrophism is usually associated with pseudo science and even esotericism. Guardian and NYT versions.

    https://nyti.ms/2zdwDTj


    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/14/impact-crater-19-miles-wide-found-beneath-greenland-glacier?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Third! Like “No Deal”..
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    Fourth. A QTWTAIN.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    More from Vanity Fair on the May-Trump phone call:

    Trump has never been known for his diplomatic skills—berating Australia shortly after taking office in 2017 comes to mind—but that he couldn’t even hold it together to let May flatter him during a routine phone call suggests this “very stable genius” has become even more unglued.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/theresa-may-caught-trump-at-a-very-bad-time
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    On topic, Yes. You could see a ' resignation for a pardon deal ' to allow Pence to run as an incumbent in 2020 especially as we are approaching the threshold where taking over wouldn't count as one of Pence's two terms limit. Clearly Gerald Ford isn't a great precedent for that but if Republicans fear the alternative is Democrats getting Congress and the White House in 2020 it may come to that. I suspect the sharp increase in turnout in the midterms will alarm them as much as the results. Counter mobilisation is here.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Trump would need a face saving way of “handing on the baton” - wonder what could possibly affect a sedentary, overweight seventy two year old?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Re Brexit: Let us apply the first test shall we ? Which of the EU27 will look at May's deal and think it's worth emulating ? Denmark and Sweden are the obvious candidates - northern europeans, history of euroscepticism, non € members. Do we think they'll be tempted by this outcome ?

    Or let us consider EFTA. Will say Norway decide May's deal is better than ' fax diplomacy ' ?

    After all a key Brexiter trope is that Brexit will be the first domino to fall. And after all the talk of x,y,z models we now have the British model. We will see who thinks it's a good one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,709
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Re Brexit: Let us apply the first test shall we ? Which of the EU27 will look at May's deal and think it's worth emulating ? Denmark and Sweden are the obvious candidates - northern europeans, history of euroscepticism, non € members. Do we think they'll be tempted by this outcome ?

    Or let us consider EFTA. Will say Norway decide May's deal is better than ' fax diplomacy ' ?

    After all a key Brexiter trope is that Brexit will be the first domino to fall. And after all the talk of x,y,z models we now have the British model. We will see who thinks it's a good one.

    I don't think it's a key Brexiter trope. Most are more than happy for the EU to carry on it's merry way.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    "---watched election returns come in with about a hundred friends at the White House."

    100 friends?
    Pull the other one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    CarlottaVance said:

    Trump would need a face saving way of “handing on the baton” - wonder what could possibly affect a sedentary, overweight seventy two year old?

    There is no saving face if you’re Trump in a situation like this.
    And a Pence pardon is possibly irrelevant, since unlike Nixon, there are at least four states looking at taking up the legal cases against him, if the federal cases under Mueller are stymied.
    It is going to be a bumpy ride.

    He might well be gone before the end of his term, but I don’t think it will be this year.

    As an aside, the latest polling on his prospects for re-election is dire. Maybe laying that is the bet ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    RobD said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Re Brexit: Let us apply the first test shall we ? Which of the EU27 will look at May's deal and think it's worth emulating ? Denmark and Sweden are the obvious candidates - northern europeans, history of euroscepticism, non € members. Do we think they'll be tempted by this outcome ?

    Or let us consider EFTA. Will say Norway decide May's deal is better than ' fax diplomacy ' ?

    After all a key Brexiter trope is that Brexit will be the first domino to fall. And after all the talk of x,y,z models we now have the British model. We will see who thinks it's a good one.

    I don't think it's a key Brexiter trope. Most are more than happy for the EU to carry on it's merry way.
    Yes, that seems to be mostly the ultras, who are a pretty small minority.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    It does increasingly look like Trump was sulking on his recent trip, not ill.

    I don't think he will quit, but it is increasingly likely that he will not run in 2020. All those primaries, then out on his arse, humiliated at either the convention or in November? No thanks.

    He will simply declare that his was the greatest administration ever, job done and America is great again, then retire to the golf course.

    There may well be some value in looking at other Republican candidates for 2020, if I am right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    We might know fairly soon if O’Rourke is running:
    https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/416839-orourke-gets-invite-from-iowa-democratic-party-amid-talks-of
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Brits, French and Americans have reasonably realistic view of where their country stands on the world stage (though British and American declinism higher than warranted). Russians need to get out more.

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/12/russians-indians-germans-especially-likely-to-say-their-countries-are-more-globally-important/
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If 55/1 was for 2018 that’s not a bet that appeals to me. The general idea, however, is very plausible.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2018
    Betfair has a dedicated Market on the threads scenario.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28074021/market?marketId=1.129133401

    As well as this one on the exact year of his departure.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28074021/market?marketId=1.138799270
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Foxy said:

    It does increasingly look like Trump was sulking on his recent trip, not ill.

    I don't think he will quit, but it is increasingly likely that he will not run in 2020. All those primaries, then out on his arse, humiliated at either the convention or in November? No thanks.

    He will simply declare that his was the greatest administration ever, job done and America is great again, then retire to the golf course.

    There may well be some value in looking at other Republican candidates for 2020, if I am right.

    He loves campaigning though, hence holding all his rallies. I think he’ll run, but he may pull out if the early primaries suggest he’s going to have trouble winning the nomination.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    How much do their masters, voters?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    CarlottaVance said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    How much do their masters, voters?
    Sample of three in my house - my mum hates Foster for "messing everything up". My dad and I think May's a disgrace.

    I would have more respect for May if she was more honest. She should abolish DfIT this morning - but she won't. Pissing our money up the wall for no good reason.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    edited November 2018
    Macron did a long TV interview last night key points

    thinks Trump can be rude but is still an ally
    wants a EU army so France is not a US vassal
    not sure how to respond to fuel price protests in France
    claims he will reduce tax
    he;s still right about everything
    but may have made a few mistakes re bodyguard scandal and may lack the common touch


    http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/2018/11/14/25001-20181114ARTFIG00352-armee-europeenne-trump-carburant-ce-qu-il-faut-retenir-de-l-intervention-de-macron.php
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    The Italy EU fight moves up a notch, EU begins sanctions procedure


    https://www.lastampa.it/2018/11/15/italia/delusi-e-arrabbiati-lattacco-allitalia-dei-governi-europei-JUcaCoMhEQmOrxRqF3NbXI/pagina.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton.

    What is the best defence to this? Well attack, obviously, but to attack effectively Trump needs the bully pulpit of the Presidency and the power of Federal government. In the poisonous sewer that is American politics today walking away is not an option so he won’t do it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    rpjs said:

    Foxy said:

    It does increasingly look like Trump was sulking on his recent trip, not ill.

    I don't think he will quit, but it is increasingly likely that he will not run in 2020. All those primaries, then out on his arse, humiliated at either the convention or in November? No thanks.

    He will simply declare that his was the greatest administration ever, job done and America is great again, then retire to the golf course.

    There may well be some value in looking at other Republican candidates for 2020, if I am right.

    He loves campaigning though, hence holding all his rallies. I think he’ll run, but he may pull out if the early primaries suggest he’s going to have trouble winning the nomination.
    Yes, his vanity greatly enjoys the adoring crowds, and that is the counter argument. He is a bit like Corbyn in that he prefers campaigning in his fanbase to actually doing the day job.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.

    She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    edited November 2018
    Alanbrooke said:

    he;s still right about everything
    but may have made a few mistakes re bodyguard scandal and may lack the common touch

    Unfortunate phrasing in the circumstances. I assume it's yours not his.

    It would be the equivalent of Clinton describing his umm, difficulties as an avoidable cock-up.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2018
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    This is now a clash of Two Brexits. May's understanding of the Leave vote through the prism of Corbyn surge during #GE17 versus Brexit as understood by every political actor that fought for it for 25 years until Dominic Cumming's campaign strategy.

    Now as it happens I think May is broadly correct in her understanding. But yesterday was the day the Monster turned on Dr Frankenstein. I think it'll take a few days more for the scale of what she's conceded to sink in. Then the terrorism will start.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton.

    What is the best defence to this? Well attack, obviously, but to attack effectively Trump needs the bully pulpit of the Presidency and the power of Federal government. In the poisonous sewer that is American politics today walking away is not an option so he won’t do it.

    Maybe his doctor could find a health problem as a reason for him to retire. His bone spurs may cause him problems again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    logical_song said:

    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton.

    What is the best defence to this? Well attack, obviously, but to attack effectively Trump needs the bully pulpit of the Presidency and the power of Federal government. In the poisonous sewer that is American politics today walking away is not an option so he won’t do it.

    Maybe his doctor could find a health problem as a reason for him to retire. His bone spurs may cause him problems again.
    The Daniels saga suggests they have already caused him enough.

    Good grief, did I forget to wash my mind this morning?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.

    She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
    So far Boris “resignations overnight” have not yielded anything - with Ms McVey and her FOBT most likely casualties.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?

    Not at all. These are fascinating times. We either get BINO or no Brexit at all from here. The Bucanneers’ delusions have been exposed. The issue now is precisely how many loons there are in the Conservative party still looking for unicorns.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    "Sweden’s parliament rejects centre-right candidate for PM

    Prospect of new elections looms amid political deadlock"

    https://www.ft.com/content/edc93a66-e7ee-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3
    (Put title of article in Google to get round paywall)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in with rumours of several more that never seem to arrive. The key today is May’s statement to the House. She needs to make the case for her deal and persuade potential supporters on either side of the House that TINA applies once again.

    She is actually quite good at responding to questions in that kind of scenario. She does detail well. It’s the big vision/inspiration thing she finds more difficult.
    So far Boris “resignations overnight” have not yielded anything - with Ms McVey and her FOBT most likely casualties.
    Still hoping Chris Grayling will go. No money on it, just think it would improve the governance of our country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,694
    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.

    Why? Voting is so along party lines, especially on the Dems side that the difference between 20 and 25 short of a majority is unimportant
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    YellowSubmarine said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    This is now a clash of Two Brexits. May's understanding of the Leave vote through the prism of Corbyn surge during #GE17 versus Brexit as understood by every political actor that fought for it for 25 years until Dominic Cumming's campaign strategy.

    Now as it happens I think May is broadly correct in her understanding. But yesterday was the day the Monster turned on Dr Frankenstein. I think it'll take a few days more for the scale of what she's conceded to sink in. Then the terrorism will start.

    As I said yesterday, a symbolic Brexit with a few more limits on FoM would get the grudging acceptance of most people out in the country. Problem is that it’s nothing like what the Bucanneering loons wanted and it won’t put Johnson into Number 10. Their current fury is delicious, but could still do huge damage if there are enough of them.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    logical_song said:

    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton.

    What is the best defence to this? Well attack, obviously, but to attack effectively Trump needs the bully pulpit of the Presidency and the power of Federal government. In the poisonous sewer that is American politics today walking away is not an option so he won’t do it.

    Maybe his doctor could find a health problem as a reason for him to retire. His bone spurs may cause him problems again.

    You think that they would leave him alone because he was ill?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    Stereotomy said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.

    Why? Voting is so along party lines, especially on the Dems side that the difference between 20 and 25 short of a majority is unimportant
    Just my opinion. Not saying it's a good result for the GOP, just not a really bad one. The Dems were on 194 seats before the election.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    Alanbrooke said:

    The Italy EU fight moves up a notch, EU begins sanctions procedure


    https://www.lastampa.it/2018/11/15/italia/delusi-e-arrabbiati-lattacco-allitalia-dei-governi-europei-JUcaCoMhEQmOrxRqF3NbXI/pagina.html

    Italy blocking the UK settlement in return would be some brinksmanship......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    OldKingCole said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
    From all I hear the Unionists don't feel Vardkar has been sympathetic. At this moment they seem to look on him as a latter-day Cathal Brugha. If anything, he's driving them further away from a united Ireland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    MarqueeMark said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    The Italy EU fight moves up a notch, EU begins sanctions procedure


    https://www.lastampa.it/2018/11/15/italia/delusi-e-arrabbiati-lattacco-allitalia-dei-governi-europei-JUcaCoMhEQmOrxRqF3NbXI/pagina.html

    Italy blocking the UK settlement in return would be some brinksmanship......
    It can't block the Withdrawal Agreement on its own. That's by QMV. It would need support elsewhere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    AndyJS said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.

    Why? Voting is so along party lines, especially on the Dems side that the difference between 20 and 25 short of a majority is unimportant
    Just my opinion. Not saying it's a good result for the GOP, just not a really bad one. The Dems were on 194 seats before the election.
    RCP are saying that the GOP have lost 34 House seats to date. Given the gerrymandering and advantages of incumbency that is already a poor result, partially offset by the gains in the Senate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    I’m guessing that there might be up to 47 letters in (snip)
    As guesses go that appears to be a sound one.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    It wont be the Tories deciding it will be 48 loons within the Tory Party. There's at least that many loons within Labour (but for not necessarily the same reason.)

    very TIM-esque in your "statement" btw.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    SquareRoot said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    It wont be the Tories deciding it will be 48 loons within the Tory Party. There's at least that many loons within Labour (but for not necessarily the same reason.)

    very TIM-esque in your "statement" btw.
    It was 41 a couple of years ago, but that was BP (Before Pidcock).
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,886
    BBC worried about Dr Who ratings?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46210019
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?

    Not at all. These are fascinating times. We either get BINO or no Brexit at all from here. The Bucanneers’ delusions have been exposed. The issue now is precisely how many loons there are in the Conservative party still looking for unicorns.

    I agree. For the first time I've begun to wonder if Brexit might be avoided completely. The extreme Brexiteers seem determined to push for a final victory with nowhere near the numbers to achieve it. More power to their elbow I say.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    SouthamObserver said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    This is now a clash of Two Brexits. May's understanding of the Leave vote through the prism of Corbyn surge during #GE17 versus Brexit as understood by every political actor that fought for it for 25 years until Dominic Cumming's campaign strategy.

    Now as it happens I think May is broadly correct in her understanding. But yesterday was the day the Monster turned on Dr Frankenstein. I think it'll take a few days more for the scale of what she's conceded to sink in. Then the terrorism will start.

    As I said yesterday, a symbolic Brexit with a few more limits on FoM would get the grudging acceptance of most people out in the country. Problem is that it’s nothing like what the Bucanneering loons wanted and it won’t put Johnson into Number 10. Their current fury is delicious, but could still do huge damage if there are enough of them.

    I havent read the deal yet, but I am content with what I have seen. Being a colony of the EU does bring stability in the short term, and we will greatly benefit from staying under CU customs control and related standards, particularly on foods.

    It looks like an unstable state in the longer term though, with either Rejoin or exiting the CU with breaking up of the UK as the end states.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    edited November 2018
    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    Opponents of this deal seem to be losing their ambition. First it was half the cabinet, then it was two Ministers, now it's a Minister of State, tomorrow it will be a PPS, and the day after it will be the person who changes Larry's litter tray.

    Edit - and if Esther McVey continues to behave like a twit, that may all be the smae person.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
    From all I hear the Unionists don't feel Vardkar has been sympathetic. At this moment they seem to look on him as a latter-day Cathal Brugha. If anything, he's driving them further away from a united Ireland.
    Agreed but the DUP may be pushing enough voters in the other direction. A united Ireland could save the RoUK a fortune.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?

    Not at all. These are fascinating times. We either get BINO or no Brexit at all from here. The Bucanneers’ delusions have been exposed. The issue now is precisely how many loons there are in the Conservative party still looking for unicorns.

    I agree. For the first time I've begun to wonder if Brexit might be avoided completely. The extreme Brexiteers seem determined to push for a final victory with nowhere near the numbers to achieve it. More power to their elbow I say.
    Yep, there's little doubt about most people's choice if it comes to remaining or the sort of catastrophe Brexit the headbangers want.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,182
    MarqueeMark said:

    BBC worried about Dr Who ratings?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46210019

    It says record ratings for a new Doctor.

    Better than the last few series IMO.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    Opponents of this deal seem to be losing their ambition. First it was half the cabinet, then it was two Ministers, now it's a Minister of State, tomorrow it will be a PPS, and the day after it will be the person who changes Larry's litter tray.

    Edit - and if Esther McVey continues to behave like a twit, that may all be the smae person.
    Philip May?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
    From all I hear the Unionists don't feel Vardkar has been sympathetic. At this moment they seem to look on him as a latter-day Cathal Brugha. If anything, he's driving them further away from a united Ireland.
    Agreed but the DUP may be pushing enough voters in the other direction. A united Ireland could save the RoUK a fortune.
    Yes - by costing Northern Ireland and the Republic a much larger amount. I really can't see it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    BBC worried about Dr Who ratings?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46210019

    It says record ratings for a new Doctor.

    Better than the last few series IMO.
    That wouldn't be difficult. The Moffat/Capaldi combination was embarrassingly poor.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    AndyJS said:

    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.

    The current total is 199.

    The outstanding counties are CA21, CA39, GA7, ME2, UT4.

    #CA21: David Valadao (R) - Lean R
    #CA39: OPEN (R) - Likely D
    #GA07: Rob Woodall (R) - Likely R
    #ME02: Bruce Poliquin (R) - Lean D
    #UT04: Mia Love (R) - Lean R

    That is Dave Wasserman's assesment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    old_labour said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    Opponents of this deal seem to be losing their ambition. First it was half the cabinet, then it was two Ministers, now it's a Minister of State, tomorrow it will be a PPS, and the day after it will be the person who changes Larry's litter tray.

    Edit - and if Esther McVey continues to behave like a twit, that may all be the smae person.
    Philip May?
    But Esther definitely may not...
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    'One of my better days in politics' - Varadkar says draft Brexit deal 'satisfactory on all key Irish priorities'

    Theresa May wins battle within her Cabinet to secure support for a Brexit deal with the EU
    Varadkar describes today as one of his better days in politics
    'Decisive progress made... but still a long way to go' - Taoiseach
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
    From all I hear the Unionists don't feel Vardkar has been sympathetic. At this moment they seem to look on him as a latter-day Cathal Brugha. If anything, he's driving them further away from a united Ireland.
    Agreed but the DUP may be pushing enough voters in the other direction. A united Ireland could save the RoUK a fortune.
    Yes - by costing Northern Ireland and the Republic a much larger amount. I really can't see it.
    It is quite funny - and in addition the Irish Health service is much less universal than that in the UK
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I remember thinking that Bush II would go the way of his father, but the GOP managed to undermine Kerry as a candidate. Perhaps Trump waits to see who the Democrat nominee is and decides then if it's a match-up he thinks he can win.

    While he has lost the House he still has the Court and the Senate in his favour.

    And there are advantages to being President.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    old_labour said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    Opponents of this deal seem to be losing their ambition. First it was half the cabinet, then it was two Ministers, now it's a Minister of State, tomorrow it will be a PPS, and the day after it will be the person who changes Larry's litter tray.

    Edit - and if Esther McVey continues to behave like a twit, that may all be the smae person.
    Philip May?
    Is it a boy job then?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton...

    With the rather significant difference that Trump is being, and will be pursued through the courts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    old_labour said:

    'One of my better days in politics' - Varadkar says draft Brexit deal 'satisfactory on all key Irish priorities'

    Theresa May wins battle within her Cabinet to secure support for a Brexit deal with the EU
    Varadkar describes today as one of his better days in politics
    'Decisive progress made... but still a long way to go' - Taoiseach

    If the man had any sense, it would say it was a total disaster for Ireland and wrecks he dream of reunion for all time, that the EU had thrown him under a bus to appease Britain and that he would try to veto the deal.

    That way the DUP and ERG would fall behind May faster than you can say 'xenophobe.'
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,694
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    I suggest that there's a feeling about that within (some of) our lifetimes demographics plus self-interest will reunite Ireland. Varadker was being reasonably sympathetic to Unionists yesterday; how long before some say 'might as well'?
    From all I hear the Unionists don't feel Vardkar has been sympathetic. At this moment they seem to look on him as a latter-day Cathal Brugha. If anything, he's driving them further away from a united Ireland.
    Agreed but the DUP may be pushing enough voters in the other direction. A united Ireland could save the RoUK a fortune.
    There are some very 'difficult" anti RoI race memories in the North, but the more United Ireland sports events there are, and the more the Republic liberalises, the more difficult it will be for the extreme Protestants.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?

    Not at all. These are fascinating times. We either get BINO or no Brexit at all from here. The Bucanneers’ delusions have been exposed. The issue now is precisely how many loons there are in the Conservative party still looking for unicorns.

    I agree. For the first time I've begun to wonder if Brexit might be avoided completely. The extreme Brexiteers seem determined to push for a final victory with nowhere near the numbers to achieve it. More power to their elbow I say.
    Fire is now incoming from the Remain side. Jo Johnson, the unnamed junior minister, T Blair and so on. The spin on the deal might be reassuring but the fact it satisfies neither extreme is not, since they are the ones most likely to have been following developments.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    MarqueeMark said:

    BBC worried about Dr Who ratings?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46210019

    The Guardian story on this said ratings were back up to the level of the first Matt Smith series , so only below peak-Tennant.

    I hope the move is because they've decided on a New Years storyline, but it might be BBC schedulers trying to be clever.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    felix said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, will the 48 threshold be hit today? If the Tories decide that now is the time for a leadership contest, we can put to bed forever the idea of them being the pro-business patriotic party.

    heavy night ?

    Not at all. These are fascinating times. We either get BINO or no Brexit at all from here. The Bucanneers’ delusions have been exposed. The issue now is precisely how many loons there are in the Conservative party still looking for unicorns.

    I agree. For the first time I've begun to wonder if Brexit might be avoided completely. The extreme Brexiteers seem determined to push for a final victory with nowhere near the numbers to achieve it. More power to their elbow I say.
    Fire is now incoming from the Remain side. Jo Johnson, the unnamed junior minister, T Blair and so on. The spin on the deal might be reassuring but the fact it satisfies neither extreme is not, since they are the ones most likely to have been following developments.
    TBF the fact that Blair's against it suggests it's a good deal and his opposition makes it likely to be popular.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    AndyJS said:

    Stereotomy said:

    AndyJS said:

    If the GOP stays above 200 seats in the House (with 218 needed for a majority) that would count as an okay result IMO. Most of the networks are saying they'll get around 203 or 204.

    Why? Voting is so along party lines, especially on the Dems side that the difference between 20 and 25 short of a majority is unimportant
    Just my opinion. Not saying it's a good result for the GOP, just not a really bad one. The Dems were on 194 seats before the election.
    It was a pretty poor result for them - and this is an awful poll for them if Trump does run again:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/14/poll-trump-2020-reelection-support-990015
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton...

    With the rather significant difference that Trump is being, and will be pursued through the courts.
    Not a difference. Remember Starr and all the special prosecutor nonsense? We are talking about a country that can’t work out who has won a House election more than 10 days after the vote. Everything is litigious. Everything seems to take forever. Nothing is resolved satisfactorily.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    Talking of Blair and therefore wildly inaccurate spin, Rashid has taken a wicket.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
    The outer edge of remain appears every bit as uncompromising as the outer edge of leave.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
    Not remaining?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,694
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton...

    With the rather significant difference that Trump is being, and will be pursued through the courts.
    Not a difference. Remember Starr and all the special prosecutor nonsense? We are talking about a country that can’t work out who has won a House election more than 10 days after the vote. Everything is litigious. Everything seems to take forever. Nothing is resolved satisfactorily.
    They'd be able to work out who'd 'won' an eletion is they had sensible voting and counting processes!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    Recidivist said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    What the hell have remainers got to be upset about?
    Not remaining?
    You could be on to something there.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    tlg86 said:

    How much do Tory (and Labour?) MPs care about Northern Ireland? May said that separating NI from GB wasn't acceptable - she lied.

    It has been surprising how many Conservatives are indifferent to the fate of Northern Ireland, and Scotland for that matter. It is not a crude English nationalism but rather that many seem to know nothing and care less.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,298
    edited November 2018
    OblitusSumMe said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    BBC worried about Dr Who ratings?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-46210019

    The Guardian story on this said ratings were back up to the level of the first Matt Smith series , so only below peak-Tennant.

    I hope the move is because they've decided on a New Years storyline, but it might be BBC schedulers trying to be clever.
    That's 2 week old news - there is no Christmas episode as Chris Chibnall stated he couldn't find a suitably Christmassy story... See https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/doctor-who-christmas-special-move-2019-new-years-day-jodie-whittaker-a8613971.html
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,055
    If I were the EU and wanted to give May the biggest amount of help without wanting to be seen to be actually helping, I’d be trying to get an EU leader or two or even the full 27 to be saying something along the lines of we’re not extending Article 50.

    That puts paid to the whole “oh if we vote this deal down we can ask the nice EU for a bit more time so that we can do some more interminable negotiations and get the magic bean deal that’s just out there!”
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,332
    Starmer floundering on Today...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Vara was a junior minister. The betting is on which Cabinet member is next out.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited November 2018
    It's Vara. Brutal resignation letter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Would Trump be allowed to simply walk off into the sunset? Not a chance. A significant part of the Democratic Party viscerally loathes him. Where they have power, such as in the House come January, they will use that to attack him to the same way Republicans went after Clinton...

    With the rather significant difference that Trump is being, and will be pursued through the courts.
    Not a difference. Remember Starr and all the special prosecutor nonsense? We are talking about a country that can’t work out who has won a House election more than 10 days after the vote. Everything is litigious. Everything seems to take forever. Nothing is resolved satisfactorily.
    I do - but Mueller is already sending people to prison, and he's only just got started.
    The better comparison is Watergate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Not a member of the cabinet so doesn’t count.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Good morning, everyone.

    Dr. Foxy, early ratings were excellent, and they've fallen sharply. A decline often happens. Best to wait and see if it continues and how the next series goes.

    Watched the first two episodes of the current series. Third and fourth episodes clashed with F1 and I didn't feel it was worth returning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    ydoethur said:

    Talking of Blair and therefore wildly inaccurate spin, Rashid has taken a wicket.

    Harsh - people quite like Adil.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    IanB2 said:

    old_labour said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Piss wind, action.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062968314153132032

    Make of it what you will.

    Opponents of this deal seem to be losing their ambition. First it was half the cabinet, then it was two Ministers, now it's a Minister of State, tomorrow it will be a PPS, and the day after it will be the person who changes Larry's litter tray.

    Edit - and if Esther McVey continues to behave like a twit, that may all be the smae person.
    Philip May?
    Is it a boy job then?
    Yep. I can't see Theresa doing it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,384
    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Never heard of her but she doesn’t sound like a remainer.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Am fully on team Theresa.

    Anyone resigning today/triggering leadership contest will be considered sub Mark Reckless scum.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/1062974197624983552

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Never heard of her but she doesn’t sound like a remainer.
    He not her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Never heard of her but she doesn’t sound like a remainer.
    He not her.
    Which nicely proves the point.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Never heard of her but she doesn’t sound like a remainer.
    It's a he.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    YellowSubmarine said:

    It's Vara. Brutal resignation letter.

    I stopped reading after "The result [of the Referendum] was decisive".

    No point in reading further.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,274
    edited November 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dr_spyn said:

    who who..

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062972232937431040

    wonder if any PBers beat the bookies on that one.

    Not a member of the cabinet so doesn’t count.
    It may help May (sorry). How can a member of the cabinet keep any credibility if they belatedly resign after a junior minister literally nobody has heard of and some people don't even know the gender of has flounced? The laughter would follow them all the way to the deselection meeting.

    So fingers crossed that is exactly what McVey does. Win/win.
This discussion has been closed.

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