politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal
Comments
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That's enough about the thread headers!SquareRoot said:We should all go back and re-read these threads in 5 yrs time. So.much hype ...so much hysteria so much bullshit written..
EDIT: Not those written by OGH obvs!0 -
So what deal do you want?bigjohnowls said:Some Socialists are happy with EU membership.
+ves workers rights
-ves No state aid
I want us to leave.
I do not accept No Deal as an acceptable option0 -
Whether May gets this through or not, I suspect this vote on the deal is going to be one of this Parliament’s final acts.El_Capitano said:If this passes in the HoC, which is a big "if":
The Conservative Party remains riven on Brexit. The ERG tendency now have a living-memory grievance to seethe against. Cameron's pledge to stop the Tories "banging on about Europe" has failed.
They have also holed themselves under the waterline in terms of future support. They have identified themselves with a policy favoured only by the old. Never mind whether this is a soft or hard Brexit in reality, we live in an age of identity politics: internationalism is the identity of the young, Brave Britain Going It Alone is the identity of the old.
Fortunately for the Tories, the other parties (in England and Wales, at least) are beyond hopeless right now, so they live to fight another day. But if either Labour or the Lib Dems finally grow a pair, the Conservatives are in serious trouble.
The best result for Corbyn is if he whips a "no" but the bill passes by the narrowest of margins.
It is hard to see May staying on once the dye has been cast. If the DUP goes too, that’s the endgame. Of course a new parliament could rip this all up even if it passes now but I strongly suspect no party is going to want to go there and reopen the wound, they’ll just say it’s settled.
I honestly cannot see anything other than a GE coming down the rails by March at the latest.0 -
LOLSandyRentool said:
My support for the single currency comes more from my position as a tourist than as a Socialist!ralphmalph said:
As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.SandyRentool said:
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
So inevitably you are backing May then?bigjohnowls said:Some Socialists are happy with EU membership.
+ves workers rights
-ves No state aid
I want us to leave.
I do not accept No Deal as an acceptable option0 -
What would you then expect to happen afterwards, if you were an MP? If Labour cannot get a GE or referendum, and neither is certain, then will they countenance no deal, since that is the other choice. That's not certain either, but while Labour can act like what they want to happen will be easy, it won't be, so what do they do if things do not proceed as they desire? We are surely about to find out given the deal will not pass.NickPalmer said:I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
I also don't see there's any way a deal gets positive polling, given it has been trashed on left and right before it is even released.0 -
Wasn't Halloween a fortnight ago ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What would you expect to happen following a no vote in the HoC Nick?NickPalmer said:I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.0 -
Spot on. The great news is that extremist Leavers in the public like Mortimer support it, so it’s done its job.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
Within Westminster, the more the likes of Baker and Rees bay at the moon, the happier I am with it.0 -
Oh christ, you're right. So we won't even have moved on from the interminable 'we can still remain' 'this is a betrayal' arguments!Jonathan said:My main takeaway from this deal is that it leaves the door to rejoining wide open. It could be done very quickly.
LD majority in 2019 on a remain manifesto?0 -
Good isn’t it! In five years time we won’t be able to read them, because either we will all be speaking French, living in Brexit caves or most likely still smouldering from the day Trump tweeted using the big red button.SquareRoot said:We should all go back and re-read these threads in 5 yrs time. So.much hype ...so much hysteria so much bullshit written..
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Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
Great to have you on board, comrade.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.0 -
Bunch of twats. They might be right this time, but that's true of anything if you threaten it a thousand times.williamglenn said:0 -
Some of them are going to need all morning to write their letters?williamglenn said:0 -
The David Davis resignation gambit, as I believe it is known.kle4 said:
Bunch of twats. They might be right this time, but that's true of anything if you threaten it a thousand times.williamglenn said:0 -
We can all unite in the hope it is the odious McVey.TheWhiteRabbit said:Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw
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Last week, yesterday, tomorrow, who knows...Benpointer said:
Some of them are going to need all morning to write their letters?williamglenn said:0 -
Not seen as much comment on this 'single customs territory' business as I would have thought given how much customs have been talked about.0
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If we believed such stuff every time we saw it, we'd be up to 480 letters by now.williamglenn said:0 -
"We totally capitulated on being able to escape the backstop, but don't worry, we got the EU to compromise too:, so now it's the whole UK that'll be trapped, not just NI. Actually come to think of it that sounds almost -too- good, could we also throw in some SM stuff for NI only to alienate the unionists?"shiney2 said:
If you are MrsMay..Theo said:
Finally people are actually focusing on the content of the deal. And it's a good one.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
Nobody else.
Certainly not tory MPs.
That's what anyone who's been won over by the hard Leavers will hear. If May had given into the inevitable a year ago rather than waiting until the last possible moment to give up, she might have had a chance to get out in front of the narrative. She may yet squeak through the vote (don't underestimate the spinelessness and hate of Corbyn from Lab centrists), and it would be an achievement if she did. But that still leaves the question- what the **** was the point of the last year?0 -
Would need to get rid of Vince first...kle4 said:
Oh christ, you're right. So we won't even have moved on from the interminable 'we can still remain' 'this is a betrayal' arguments!Jonathan said:My main takeaway from this deal is that it leaves the door to rejoining wide open. It could be done very quickly.
LD majority in 2019 on a remain manifesto?0 -
Sadly she tweets "No *do* stand down (I think...)! Had heard the Brexit secretary was on the brink, but friends say absolutely not. Let's all reconvene tomorrow, shall we?"Anazina said:
We can all unite in the hope it is the odious McVey.TheWhiteRabbit said:Guardian liveblog described that tweet as "My colleague Heather Stewart on reports that a major resignation from the cabinet could be on the cards later tonight" btw
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Again, spot on. Very good news.Andy_Cooke said:
Similarly anyone who's saying FoM is dead.Mortimer said:
Yep.Andy_Cooke said:Having just read it, I'm impressed. May has successfully kicked the can nearly two more years down the road.
I may have got it wrong (I read through very quickly) but it looks like effectively nothing changes until 2021 (including retention of Freedom of Movement, and anyone living here by then has full rights forever), except we (as a country) lose a bunch of rights and authorities over decisions to be made going forwards.
It gives us until then to sort out our future relationship (including NI/Ireland) and if, by July 2020, it looks like we won't get it done in time, we can kick the can yet further down the road by mutual consent.
Brexit means can kicking.
My assumption is that anyone who says ‘it’s BINO’ has neither read the document, nor has any real understanding of what the document pertains to.
It ain't. On the day after Brexit Day next year... anyone from anywhere in the EU or EEA who could come here today could come here then. And stay. With exactly the same rights and privileges as today.
All the way until 2021 at least, and if they're here by then, their rights to live and work here are protected in perpetuity.
And, if we still haven't resolved things by then, we'll see an extension to the transition period (my kneejerk odds on that are better than even: both the EU and the UK Government love giving that can another kick.0 -
"oh get it over with" polls?NickPalmer said:I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.
There will be a lot, judging by my interactions with non-political types over last few days.0 -
Have skim read it all including the political declaration. My thoughts:
- it is mostly dull legalese which effects a gradual and orderly transition out of the EU
- even if Brexiteers hate this doc, surely they get a frisson of excitement reading 580 pages of legal verbiage which unpicks our 45 year involvement in the EU. The thing they have wanted all their lives
- it does read like the UK and EU cooperating to achieve this
- very little to frighten the horses really
- protocol on NI contains so much necessary detail that it does make the province feel like an EU protectorate even if in isolation much of this is expected, necessary and sensible
- such a shame the political declaration couldn't have been worked up into a proper agreement fixing the future relationship; I like the sound of much of it but it's just bullet points
- I am slightly excited by the potential this gives us though, with a fair wind - no immediate cliff edge change, orderly transition, potential in 3 years to have a deep and meaningful partnership arrangement with the EU where we get the best of both worlds and will fundamentally have delivered on Brexit
- if Cameron had come back with something like this has the potential to become, he'd have walked any referendum to endorse it
- I voted Remain, would rather have stayed in and fought from the inside. But I think this could actually be a really sensible roadmap to a grown up partnering arrangement where we have much more independence and ability to do our own thing; we could arguably have more influence outside on the new basis than we have now on the inside
- reckon most voters will say just get on with it and May and the Tories get a polling boost
- hopefully sensible moderate MPs will get this through. The alternatives do not bear thinking about.
- I am not confident about this though. Peston was just on ITV saying the 48 letters will be in by lunchtime tomorrow. Fuckwits.0 -
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My main take away from this document is that I should not be allowed to vote because I don't understand quite a lot of it.0
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Lol!Benpointer said:
Some of them are going to need all morning to write their letters?williamglenn said:0 -
I think it’s the same 10 people who’ve had letters in all the time who periodically withdraw them and send an angrier version.IanB2 said:
If we believed such stuff every time we saw it, we'd be up to 480 letters by now.williamglenn said:0 -
Peston is and has always been far too excitable.Bob__Sykes said:- I am not confident about this though. Peston was just on ITV saying the 48 letters will be in by lunchtime tomorrow. Fuckwits.
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If 11 ministers rejected it why have they not already publicly resigned? It's a 24 hour news cycle, no need to sleep on it if they have rejected it. And if 11 ministers rejected it, why are only 40 rebels trying to bring her down? They've quoted far more than that before as being opposed to much less weak deal talk.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1062835443417399296
40 Rebels? No resignations so far.0 -
https://twitter.com/hendopolis?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
No positive headlines in the press so far for May. But we await the Daily Remainer who must publish a headline along the lines of "Super Woman May plays a blinder for the whole of the UK."0 -
I think she would be happy with that headline.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1062835443417399296
40 Rebels? No resignations so far.0 -
Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????0
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It'll be grat fun reading the polls.. They are likely all to say different things.rottenborough said:
"oh get it over with" polls?NickPalmer said:I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.
There will be a lot, judging by my interactions with non-political types over last few days.0 -
Did May actually meet with Foster at 8.30pm as was reported she was going to? Have we had any official word from the DUP having seen the agreement yet?0
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Especially if we have the sense to coordinate our actions with EFTA.Bob__Sykes said:- I voted Remain, would rather have stayed in and fought from the inside. But I think this could actually be a really sensible roadmap to a grown up partnering arrangement where we have much more independence and ability to do our own thing; we could arguably have more influence outside on the new basis than we have now on the inside
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I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.Pulpstar said:Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
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If the letters go on, there will be a backlash against the rebels, May will win the confidence vote of Tory MPs and the chances that her deal goes through then increase.Bob__Sykes said:Have skim read it all including the political declaration. My thoughts:
- it is mostly dull legalese which effects a gradual and orderly transition out of the EU
- even if Brexiteers hate this doc, surely they get a frisson of excitement reading 580 pages of legal verbiage which unpicks our 45 year involvement in the EU. The thing they have wanted all their lives
- it does read like the UK and EU cooperating to achieve this
- very little to frighten the horses really
- protocol on NI contains so much necessary detail that it does make the province feel like an EU protectorate even if in isolation much of this is expected, necessary and sensible
- such a shame the political declaration couldn't have been worked up into a proper agreement fixing the future relationship; I like the sound of much of it but it's just bullet points
- I am slightly excited by the potential this gives us though, with a fair wind - no immediate cliff edge change, orderly transition, potential in 3 years to have a deep and meaningful partnership arrangement with the EU where we get the best of both worlds and will fundamentally have delivered on Brexit
- if Cameron had come back with something like this has the potential to become, he'd have walked any referendum to endorse it
- I voted Remain, would rather have stayed in and fought from the inside. But I think this could actually be a really sensible roadmap to a grown up partnering arrangement where we have much more independence and ability to do our own thing; we could arguably have more influence outside on the new basis than we have now on the inside
- reckon most voters will say just get on with it and May and the Tories get a polling boost
- hopefully sensible moderate MPs will get this through. The alternatives do not bear thinking about.
- I am not confident about this though. Peston was just on ITV saying the 48 letters will be in by lunchtime tomorrow. Fuckwits.0 -
Maybe any number of letters have been delivered but Brady hasn't opened any of them yet?williamglenn said:
I think it’s the same 10 people who’ve had letters in all the time who periodically withdraw them and send an angrier version.IanB2 said:
If we believed such stuff every time we saw it, we'd be up to 480 letters by now.williamglenn said:0 -
Has Ken Clarke said anything yet post pmqs.... That's all I'll need.0
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It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Keep dreaming!Bob__Sykes said:Have skim read it all including the political declaration. My thoughts:
- it is mostly dull legalese which effects a gradual and orderly transition out of the EU
- even if Brexiteers hate this doc, surely they get a frisson of excitement reading 580 pages of legal verbiage which unpicks our 45 year involvement in the EU. The thing they have wanted all their lives
- it does read like the UK and EU cooperating to achieve this
- very little to frighten the horses really
- protocol on NI contains so much necessary detail that it does make the province feel like an EU protectorate even if in isolation much of this is expected, necessary and sensible
- such a shame the political declaration couldn't have been worked up into a proper agreement fixing the future relationship; I like the sound of much of it but it's just bullet points
- I am slightly excited by the potential this gives us though, with a fair wind - no immediate cliff edge change, orderly transition, potential in 3 years to have a deep and meaningful partnership arrangement with the EU where we get the best of both worlds and will fundamentally have delivered on Brexit
- if Cameron had come back with something like this has the potential to become, he'd have walked any referendum to endorse it
- I voted Remain, would rather have stayed in and fought from the inside. But I think this could actually be a really sensible roadmap to a grown up partnering arrangement where we have much more independence and ability to do our own thing; we could arguably have more influence outside on the new basis than we have now on the inside
- reckon most voters will say just get on with it and May and the Tories get a polling boost
- hopefully sensible moderate MPs will get this through. The alternatives do not bear thinking about.
- I am not confident about this though. Peston was just on ITV saying the 48 letters will be in by lunchtime tomorrow. Fuckwits.0 -
Are the rumours true that they just got takeaway and plan to Netflix and ChillAnazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Two days of almost on board Daily Express front pages!williamglenn said:0 -
Vox pop on Ten O Clock news - main take was 'you're paid to get on with it, so just get on with it'Pulpstar said:
I'm not just talking about the ERG here - media talking heads too.Pulpstar said:Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
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It's tough at the top.Anazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The voters who will have heard from figures on the remain and leave side how bad this deal is? And a Tory figure which includes a series of hard deal and no deal supporters?Bob__Sykes said:
- reckon most voters will say just get on with it and May and the Tories get a polling boost
I would think a polling hit is inevitable, the only question is how long lasting it would be, but given how riven the government is and how oppositions usually lead as you approach mid parliament anyway, the Tories and various right wing outlets need to show more backbone at the prospect of being 5 points behind for example.
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They can share experience of disloyal backstabbers.Anazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yup. Although the first group do speak for *some* voters, and without them there would have been nothing like a majority for Brexit.Pulpstar said:Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
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Disloyal backstabbers like Jeremy Corbyn?kle4 said:
They can share experience of disloyal backstabbers.Anazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1062832622773116928rpjs said:
Maybe any number of letters have been delivered but Brady hasn't opened any of them yet?williamglenn said:
I think it’s the same 10 people who’ve had letters in all the time who periodically withdraw them and send an angrier version.IanB2 said:
If we believed such stuff every time we saw it, we'd be up to 480 letters by now.williamglenn said:
Not harf!!!0 -
Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.0 -
He's seen both sides of disloyalty, so he is surely an expert.Theo said:
Disloyal backstabbers like Jeremy Corbyn?kle4 said:
They can share experience of disloyal backstabbers.Anazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Nick, given it’s this or nothing, we should support it. It keeps us in the CU until the 12th of Never and offers stability to business. It’s the only game in town.NickPalmer said:I've not read the whole thing yet, but provisionally I don't think much of it - its main appeal is to Remainers on the basis that it limits the damage by making us a sort of non-voting associate member until further notice. I don't hate it but if I were currently an MP I'd vote against, and I expect Labour to do the same.
Opinium is busily polling on the issue, as I'm sure are others. As I said yesterday, I think May's best hope is to play it long and hope that "oh get it over with" polls sway her MPs.0 -
I suspect the Mirror is 'exaggerating'. 11 ministers spoke against the deal - it's perfectly reasonable for them to do so but then agree to sign-up to the deal under collective responsibility. I bet we've all supported and implement policies in our working life that we wouldn't have chosen to adopt, given a free choice, but which we decided weren't worth resigning over.kle4 said:
If 11 ministers rejected it why have they not already publicly resigned? It's a 24 hour news cycle, no need to sleep on it if they have rejected it. And if 11 ministers rejected it, why are only 40 rebels trying to bring her down? They've quoted far more than that before as being opposed to much less weak deal talk.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1062835443417399296
40 Rebels? No resignations so far.0 -
Yes but the much larger group is represented pretty much alone by May right now.edmundintokyo said:
Yup. Although the first group do speak for *some* voters, and without them there would have been nothing like a majority for Brexit.Pulpstar said:Is it me or is there the most colossal gap between leavers that are prominent in the media with all their free trade and theoretical sovereignty concerns, and leavers in the country that couldn't give a toss about all that and just want sose immigration controls ????
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Arlene Foster
Verified account
@DUPleader
10m10 minutes ago
More
We had a frank meeting tonight with the Prime Minister lasting almost an hour. She is fully aware of our position and concerns.0 -
47.9 letters, as fucking ever.williamglenn said:0 -
I'll give you evens if you think it will be more than 100.Wulfrun_Phil said:Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.0 -
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How many more millions will they get?TheWhiteRabbit said:Arlene Foster
Verified account
@DUPleader
10m10 minutes ago
More
We had a frank meeting tonight with the Prime Minister lasting almost an hour. She is fully aware of our position and concerns.0 -
Suspect there will be several withdrawn tonight.Anazina said:
47.9 letters, as fucking ever.williamglenn said:0 -
Any excuse to get out of UC...0
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I don't think I can face ploughing through the annexes on this thing as well.
One thing I am wondering is that many on here seem inclined to support the deal, not least on a 'best that can be managed, alternatives worse' justification, and assume the days to come that sort of feeling will magnify. But I wonder if, on here and elsewhere, initial supporters will be the ones to waver, for one because the deal almost certainly won't pass, and because the partisan negativity will wear away the certainty that this is acceptable even if it is crap.0 -
not actually clear what their editorial view is from thatTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If you lead with the Cabinet being in disarray and that all sides think it is shit, I think the implication even if not outright stated is they agree it is shit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
not actually clear what their editorial view is from thatTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We should have an informal competion on PB.Wulfrun_Phil said:Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.
Obviously it will become (a bit) easier to predict the closer we get to the vote but as of tonight I suspect it will scrape through by about 10 votes.0 -
That only happens if you try to spend money you don't have, which in theory isn't a feature of socialism, although in practice it often is.ralphmalph said:
As a socialist how can you support the single currency? The EU uses it as a form of economic colonialism. Do as we say or your banking system gets it.SandyRentool said:
The good bits are Schengen and the single currency.Jonathan said:
EU membership without the good bits.glw said:
I have to say I think you have summarised what has happened very well.edmundintokyo said:Basically the politicians who wanted Brexit wanted it so they could do Libertarian Pirate Island / Globalism In One Country, but they sold it to the voters on the basis that they could cut immigration. Now TMay's signed up to what the voters thought they were getting, not what the people who planned the whole thing thought they were getting.
Although admittedly it makes the Take Back Control slogan look a bit ridiculous.
May has negotiated the sort of deal you would expect if you actually bear in mind the vote was 52% to 48%, which is not the kind of deal that people like JRM and Boris want as they seem to think they won a landslide.0 -
120? How did they reach that?Wulfrun_Phil said:Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.
Having said that there seems to be a (complacent?) view from some Tories that many on the Labour will abstain or vote for.
One that is not matched by many Labour MPs public statements.0 -
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It'll never get to a vote if it looks like being deafeated that heavily.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I'll give you evens if you think it will be more than 100.Wulfrun_Phil said:Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.0 -
Jonathan said:
Are the rumours true that they just got takeaway and plan to Netflix and ChillAnazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m hearing similarJonathan said:
Are the rumours true that they just got takeaway and plan to Netflix and ChillAnazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:
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1 is enoughTheWhiteRabbit said:
I'll give you evens if you think it will be more than 100.Wulfrun_Phil said:Is there a betting market yet on the scale of the government defeat when this comes before the Commons? (Assuming that May survives long enough for that to happen)
ITV are suggesting that the Government could be about 120 votes short.0 -
If they don't like the most critical policy this government will ever adopt they must resign, they have a choice. No love of a Cabinet post, which would be shaky anyway as May's premiership is shaky, could possibly override a concern so large they supposedly 'rejected' it.Benpointer said:
I suspect the Mirror is 'exaggerating'. 11 ministers spoke against the deal - it's perfectly reasonable for them to do so but then agree to sign-up to the deal under collective responsibility. I bet we've all supported and implement policies in our working life that we wouldn't have chosen to adopt, given a free choice, but which we decided weren't worth resigning over.kle4 said:
If 11 ministers rejected it why have they not already publicly resigned? It's a 24 hour news cycle, no need to sleep on it if they have rejected it. And if 11 ministers rejected it, why are only 40 rebels trying to bring her down? They've quoted far more than that before as being opposed to much less weak deal talk.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1062835443417399296
40 Rebels? No resignations so far.
So the label of rejection is either an exaggeration so big it is no different than a lie, or 11 of them will resign in the morning in my view, and if they later play up how they didn't like but they didn't resign, they are acting in a very scummy way.0 -
I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.0
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On the othere hand "Historic Deal Is Revealed"kle4 said:
If you lead with the Cabinet being in disarray and that all sides think it is shit, I think the implication even if not outright stated is they agree it is shit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
not actually clear what their editorial view is from thatTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think our average curling team does less sweeping than the English batsmen today. I am hoping to wake to a clatter of wickets tomorrow morning.ydoethur said:
They can risk it.Nigelb said:
If MaxPB and welshowl back it (however reluctantly), I’d guess that means at least three quarters of Brexiteers will.ydoethur said:Bottom line is, if Brexit's about immigration, then this is a superb deal.
If it's about sovereignty, it's not good, in fact it's bloody awful, but it has the potential to be adapted gradually over time in a less painful manner and is therefore acceptable.
If it's about internal party politics of the Tories, it's an unmitigated fiasco.
If it's to watch Labour and the Liberal Democrats contort on the hook of their own hypocrisy, it's funny.
But the key thing people need to grasp is it is this, or it is leave with no deal. That on its own should be enough for Remainers to support it. And the fact that we are leaving should see Brexiteers by and large accept it.
Yes, the Farages and Blairs and Rees Moggs and Sturgeons will stamp and shout and scream and generally behave like spoiled three year olds. But I think the country will ultimately back it.
And a similar proportion of Remainers.
Can Parliament risk pissing off that many voters ?
In the same way that England's batsmen can risk playing shots on a turning wicket against a spinner.0 -
I dunno. Would send me to sleep.Anazina said:
It’s a deranged bug of the political world that key meetings happen at nearly midnight. May looked exhausted. She probably wants a glass of wine, a decent steak, and bed. Hosting Jezza at Number Ten is probably not wise at this late hour.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Ditto here. They got through cabinet fairly easily, presumably they knew how everyone important would react. I suspect they think they have the numbers in Parliament too, whether courtesy of Labour rebels or abstainers.Benpointer said:
Obviously it will become (a bit) easier to predict the closer we get to the vote but as of tonight I suspect it will scrape through by about 10 votes.
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Notable that most of the people first out of the traps on Newsnight etc are the absolute idiots like Anne Marie Morris. Everyone else keeping their powder dry.0
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Dear Jacob, go boil your ‘ead.TheScreamingEagles said:
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Jesus wept the ERG0
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I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.Pulpstar said:I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
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I'm confused.... I thought there wasn't going to be a deal... Now there is one and even the cabinet has signed off on it with no hezza style flounce ... I thought there were to be untold resignations over a sell out . ..
All whilst the usual blowhards keep on raging from the sidelines. .0 -
What are they getting angrier and angrier about? Even Mogg could only find three reasons, spread over four bullets and all of them were weak:Anazina said:
47.9 letters, as fucking ever.williamglenn said:
1) We have to pay £39m. Yes, those are the fees we already agreed to when we were a member 9f the EU, they cover the transition period we need to have anyway, and they will come to a stop in 2021
2) Northern Ireland is treated differently. Except for the 75% of their economy that consists of services, criminal justice and all the other non-economic stuff
3) We stay in the customs union. Which doesn't effect 80% of our economy that is services. And only lasts until a new deal is in place. And the EU can't play games with this because they are legally committed to negotiate in good faith, as judged by an independent arbitrator.
These people just love getting angry and shouting betrayal that they do it regardless of the circumstances.0 -
Given that the 500 pages contain not a single thing that is an improvement on the status quo, it's actually not a bad document. The EU could have screwed us over, but largely hasn't. It appears to prioritise the future relationship over extracting the most advantage.0
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I noticed on BBC news he said that he would have to "burn some candles tonight" and read the whole thing.Nigelb said:
He really is the Member for the 18th century.
He'll probably appear on TV tomorrow and say this agreement has nothing to say on the pressing issue of the Corn Laws.0 -
Locked into food quality syandards. The absolute horror.0
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Yeah, but the context of it is surrounded by it being blasted.Benpointer said:
On the othere hand "Historic Deal Is Revealed"kle4 said:
If you lead with the Cabinet being in disarray and that all sides think it is shit, I think the implication even if not outright stated is they agree it is shit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
not actually clear what their editorial view is from thatTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%edmundintokyo said:
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.Pulpstar said:I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
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Not having read it didn't stop him issuing a letter denouncing it.rottenborough said:
I noticed on BBC news he said that he would have to "burn some candles tonight" and read the whole thing.Nigelb said:
He really is the Member for the 18th century.
He'll probably appear on TV tomorrow and say this agreement has nothing to say on the pressing issue of the Corn Laws.0 -
If they don't deliver tomorrow they'll be a laughing stock.Anazina said:
47.9 letters, as fucking ever.williamglenn said:0 -
Funny coincidence, as I expect it to reduce them by about the same amount!Mortimer said:
I honestly expect this to boost Tory poll ratings by as much as 5%edmundintokyo said:
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.Pulpstar said:I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
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In other news, for those betting on the 2020 Democrat nominee
http://www.tmz.com/2018/11/14/michael-avenatti-arrested-domestic-violence-stormy-daniels-attorney/0 -
From newsnight Its quite clear that much of Labour don’t want to restrict immigration.
The Tories should be banging on the ‘staying in the SM means FoM’ drum every day...0 -
The problem is the middle viewpoint isn't given out by any media talking heads. It's either Gary Lineker or the Moggedmundintokyo said:
I wouldn't be surprised if it also swayed a chunk of Remain voters over to the Leave side. Control of immigration, no more CAP, not too much economic damage. The British can't vote on the rules they're following any more, but the voters probably don't believe they had any influence in the first place.Pulpstar said:I'll say again, as a remain voting soft Eurosceptic this deal looks like an absolutely fantastic deal. Ok It's not perfect but it's the best we'll ever bloody get.
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