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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

So the brexit process moves a step forward with a broad agreement that Theresa May now has to sell to her cabinet, then her party, and then the House of Commons.
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Hurrah Hurrah
I look forward to reading it. This seems a good separate story though
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46198478
Eh, it'll do. No doubt it will be hard to escape from that, but are no dealers and mythical dealers (of the 'we will just a get a better deal' crowd on left and right) really saying we won't have the strength to do so down the line, that they will give up if we BINO for now for economi reasons?
"Now my backstop ain't so hot / But it's the only deal I've got"
Not acknowledging voting down the deal increases that risk and blindly, without certainty, promising no deal will not happen, is no different to those leavers who claimed there would be no difficulty or pain as a consequence of voting leave. Is following that example the lesson they want to take? The moral high ground would need to be sacrificed for starters.
Hoping it will work out the way you want is unreasonable when you are playing for stakes this high. There are sound reasons to vote down a bad deal, but that is not one of them.
Should he not just ask Labour's six tests in his six questions though?
There needs to be a broad consensus on membership, it's can't go on for decades as a political football.
It's just be a handbrake on everything they want to do.
It’s a tough one.
Dig out your party posters popcorn lovers, a General Election is almost upon us.
Alternatively, a narrow Remain win would leave many Leave voters feeling cheated, so even though I wish we'd Remained, I am not convinced it would be a good outcome from where we are today.
A BINO deal seems like the best solution. It needs to be spun by TMay as "we said we would leave and we have."
That would focus minds somewhat.
That's not to say they should not go for it if they really think it is the best option, and it's chances are higher now than at any other time, but a deal is apparently available, and voting it down does mean no deal opens back up.
It's like complaining about your neighbour putting up an estate agent sign when you have a tacky Vegas Elvis wedding chapel on the other side.
Changes like this are hard, and things could be made harder over time even if that too would be hard. But push for too much and you might get nothing.
Of course, if Boris and co think a bad brexit is worse than no brexit they can support a referendum to remain after all.
Does anyone have any ideas?
Important for betting.
He's right though. I can, sort of, see a situation where its refused, people try something else, and return to it and reluctantly vote it through, but there's too many people on both sides who have no incentive to wave it through on the first try as they chance their arm at hard leave/remain.
Mcvey and Davies...
FOBT and Brexit?
QMV will be easy enough. How many awkward squad in the EU Parliament? Farage for one...
Raab and Gove are the smart Leavers who can actually practically see when they have won.
The public I suspect will dislike it intensely but would be easier to persuade it is the best that can be managed. But the MPs are playing a different game. Jonathan points out the simple math at play here. Even were it only the usual awkward crowd the lack of majority is in to the double digits, perhaps significantly so.
And happy birthday tomorrow to Prince Charles I see.
One of the rules of strategy is never relying on your opponent to do or not do something...
It really is almost impossible to see how this goes through Parliament.
1. Anyone who has sounded off about the deal, and how they will vote to reject it without reading the document, has no place in our national life.
2. From what I’ve read, the greatest motivator for voting Leave (ie free movement) is answered, the U.K. will have goods regulations very close to those of the Single Market, and we will be outside the CAP and the CFP. That sounds pretty good to me.
3. If Parliament rejects the deal, May should take the initiative and put it to a referendum. It will keep Corbyn out of Downing Street, help Tory unity by taking the decision out of Westminster, and give popular sanction to the final result.
It's probably worth signing off for however long until parliament votes to wait for it to be officially killed off.
The Loyalists are loyal to no-one but themselves. This is a lesson the Tory Party should never forget.