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SystemSystem Posts: 12,684
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging incumbent

Yesterday one of the midterm contenders who received a lot of publicity during the campaign, Richard Ojeda, announced that he was running for the presidency and published his first campaign video, see above.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,091
    edited November 2018
    First.

    Like Ojeda?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,279
    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Very unlikely. But at 250-1 it doesn't need to be very likely, just possible.
    Is it possible ? Yes, yes it is. I'm on.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Rather than throw money at every Democrat longshot, perhaps we should revisit whether Trump will run again, given speculation around why he missed several engagements and that he may already have been subpoenaed by Mueller.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Publicity is everything these days so make sure to like, subscribe, follow him on twitter etc etc.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Rather than throw money at every Democrat longshot, perhaps we should revisit whether Trump will run again, given speculation around why he missed several engagements and that he may already have been subpoenaed by Mueller.

    We can do both, I backed Pence yesterday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Ojeda is no Donald Trump.....
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Rather than throw money at every Democrat longshot, perhaps we should revisit whether Trump will run again, given speculation around why he missed several engagements and that he may already have been subpoenaed by Mueller.

    250/1 for a guy who is actually running is value.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Mike Pence is 33/1 2020 presidential election winner with Unibet, and he will be the incumbent if Trump does resign before then. Better odds than betting on Trump's exit date (although admittedly not quite the same thing).
  • eekeek Posts: 31,299
    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Ojeda is no Donald Trump.....
    Yep Donald Trump had 15+ years of carefully managed public awareness - Ojeda (and in fact probably no one except Oprah has that). Plus Trump played the role of a decision maker on TV - even Oprah doesn't have the public awareness for "getting things done".

    So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Fox might be a protest about the doxing of Tucker Carlson. Not sure about the rest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/harryyorke1/status/1062253290182840321?s=21
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I quite like the cut of Ojeda's jib.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    edited November 2018
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Mike Pence is 33/1 2020 presidential election winner with Unibet, and he will be the incumbent if Trump does resign before then. Better odds than betting on Trump's exit date (although admittedly not quite the same thing).
    It's highly correlated. I think Pence would win any primary if Trump was unable to run given how right wing the GOP base is right now (Kasich and Hayley look like poor bets for POTUS to me)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    eek said:


    Yep Donald Trump had 15+ years of carefully managed public awareness - Ojeda (and in fact probably no one except Oprah has that). Plus Trump played the role of a decision maker on TV - even Oprah doesn't have the public awareness for "getting things done".

    So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..

    Just as Trump ran a campaign that nobody could predict, I expect the campaign against Trump will be like no other before

    In that case there is no telling who the best candidate might be
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Fox might be a protest about the doxing of Tucker Carlson. Not sure about the rest.
    The official Twitter account for Fox News has not tweeted since Thursday, reportedly in protest of the social media company's lack of responsiveness regarding content associated with a protest outside of host Tucker Carlson's home.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    Why didn't you retweet the growth figures from Tuesday?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Scott_P said:

    eek said:


    Yep Donald Trump had 15+ years of carefully managed public awareness - Ojeda (and in fact probably no one except Oprah has that). Plus Trump played the role of a decision maker on TV - even Oprah doesn't have the public awareness for "getting things done".

    So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..

    Just as Trump ran a campaign that nobody could predict, I expect the campaign against Trump will be like no other before

    In that case there is no telling who the best candidate might be
    The mid-terms didn't help in telling us who that best candidate might be either.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    Anazina said:

    I quite like the cut of Ojeda's jib.

    So do I but I feel with so many tours in Iraq and Afghanistan he will, at the very least, been close to some shady shit which could be used against him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    Curious.

    https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Scott_P said:

    eek said:


    Yep Donald Trump had 15+ years of carefully managed public awareness - Ojeda (and in fact probably no one except Oprah has that). Plus Trump played the role of a decision maker on TV - even Oprah doesn't have the public awareness for "getting things done".

    So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..

    Just as Trump ran a campaign that nobody could predict, I expect the campaign against Trump will be like no other before

    In that case there is no telling who the best candidate might be
    She might be a bit too old now but I think Judith Scheindlin would be a good wildcard candidate and could beat him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I like bets like this, especially in contests with wide open fields, as the Democrat nomination is. It doesn't matter if you pick a few donkeys if one or two catch fire. The profits you can make by laying the successes off at good prices later on should more than compensate for the blushes of backing a palooka.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    Hopefully @Y0kel will comment.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    That said, Mr Ojeda spends far too much time in the gym to have enough time to study policy positions in any depth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,091
    AlastairMeeks said:

    That said, Mr Ojeda spends far too much time in the gym to have enough time to study policy positions in any depth.

    I don't know. I'm spending about three hours a day walking at the moment (and more if I'm out and about on a long walk), and I'm almost always listening to podcasts - mainly science and current affairs. I pick up lots of stuff that way.

    Going to the gym doesn't mean you need to turn off your mind (though sadly for many, it does).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Previous pb favourite Hickenlooper has drifted like a barge -- it looks like he may be investigated for undeclared gifts. Now any price you like.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1062285912913141761
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1062285866624839681
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1062285754439753729
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    eek said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Ojeda is no Donald Trump.....
    Yep Donald Trump had 15+ years of carefully managed public awareness - Ojeda (and in fact probably no one except Oprah has that). Plus Trump played the role of a decision maker on TV - even Oprah doesn't have the public awareness for "getting things done".

    So bar Trump I can't see anyone else able to take the same path to the White House..
    The other point is that however credible a candidate against Trump we might consider someone, they first have to get through the Democratic primaries.

    Unless they already have significant fundraising and/or name awareness, there is very little time for them to establish themselves - and a losing Congressional candidate doesn't have much of a platform (and O'Rourke has already sucked up much of the oxygen available to such candidates... and funds).

    I don't think 250/1 is overly generous.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    Hopefully @Y0kel will comment.
    https://twitter.com/jackmatt81/status/1062285499241562112?s=21

    https://twitter.com/jackmatt81/status/1062286839200002049?s=21
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Mike's is a very good bet. Personally, I'm rubbish at trading bets and a lot better at predicting outcomes, however, it's pretty obvious that if he is running then his odds should come in. He's also clearly different to the Hillary-Biden-Warren-Sanders septugenarian retreads (I know these four do speak to very different parts of the Democrat spectrum but they're still all DC veterans).

    I think there's a big gap for someone new and optimistic to break into. Is Ojeda the one to do it? Lack of experience is nothing like the bar it once was and he has to have a better chance than his odds suggest.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Ojeda is no Donald Trump.....
    ... which is obviously a good thing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Mike Pence is 33/1 2020 presidential election winner with Unibet, and he will be the incumbent if Trump does resign before then. Better odds than betting on Trump's exit date (although admittedly not quite the same thing).
    You *assume* he will be the incumbent. We didn't get President Agnew (not that I'm suggesting anything about Pence's tax returns, just that there are no certainties).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MikeSmithson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Rather than throw money at every Democrat longshot, perhaps we should revisit whether Trump will run again, given speculation around why he missed several engagements and that he may already have been subpoenaed by Mueller.

    250/1 for a guy who is actually running is value.
    Surely that depends. There will be value here but sometimes even if someone is running they are less than a 0.4% chance still. Though after 2016 I'd hesitate to say who that applies to.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,894
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    logical_song said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Ojeda is no Donald Trump.....
    ... which is obviously a good thing.
    Well, as pointed out below, not if you have spent your whole public life positioning yourself as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21

    "The perjury trap" - yeah, really unfair to catch you out lying to the FBI, using your own words...

    It's hard to tell just where this is going to go right now. Trump's appointment of Whitaker is clearly unconstitutional, and quite possibly further evidence of obstruction. Obviously intended to stop the Mueller investigation, it could have prompted precipitate action by him.

    That said, it has seen so much pushback, and not only from Democrats, that it looks as though Trump might try to appoint someone else quite quickly (Christie is reportedly being considered)... so Mueller might not rush to indict until he is ready.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited November 2018
    david_herdson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Mike Pence is 33/1 2020 presidential election winner with Unibet, and he will be the incumbent if Trump does resign before then. Better odds than betting on Trump's exit date (although admittedly not quite the same thing).
    You *assume* he will be the incumbent. We didn't get President Agnew (not that I'm suggesting anything about Pence's tax returns, just that there are no certainties).
    Ssh! I'm still hoovering up all the 10,000/1 Ivanka. :)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    david_herdson said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/TheUKDemocrat/status/1062276388919672832

    Mike Pence is 33/1 2020 presidential election winner with Unibet, and he will be the incumbent if Trump does resign before then. Better odds than betting on Trump's exit date (although admittedly not quite the same thing).
    You *assume* he will be the incumbent. We didn't get President Agnew (not that I'm suggesting anything about Pence's tax returns, just that there are no certainties).
    And he has the broad electoral appeal of the bucket of warm spit that the post of Vice President is often compared to.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    I see a centrist Democrat has won the Arizona senate seat after all votes have been counted.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-senator.html
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    Good spot, I think this is correct - of course one might say the midterms don't matter but I don't think the shear weight of democratic vote can be ignored in the rust belt this time round.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    edited November 2018
    currystar said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
    Unusual for the ONS to use the word "only":

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    currystar said:

    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it

    I did not retweet it
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,318
    edited November 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    David_Evershed said:

    I see a centrist Democrat has won the Arizona senate seat after all votes have been counted.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-senator.html

    All the votes haven't been counted yet but the Republican has conceded.

    There are still a number of Arizona state positions that are being hotly contested with more votes to be counted.

    https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    f) Healthcare (should probably be a) )
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Goes to Congress. One house elects President the other Veep. Could end up split parties as a result.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    f) Healthcare (should probably be a) )
    Agreed. Very good point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21

    "The perjury trap" - yeah, really unfair to catch you out lying to the FBI, using your own words...

    It's hard to tell just where this is going to go right now. Trump's appointment of Whitaker is clearly unconstitutional, and quite possibly further evidence of obstruction. Obviously intended to stop the Mueller investigation, it could have prompted precipitate action by him.

    That said, it has seen so much pushback, and not only from Democrats, that it looks as though Trump might try to appoint someone else quite quickly (Christie is reportedly being considered)... so Mueller might not rush to indict until he is ready.
    Lock him up I say.

    Mueller is awesome
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Why is Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson longer than Dwanye Johnson?

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    I think PA will likely flip back Democrat if WI, MI are picked up though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21

    "The perjury trap" - yeah, really unfair to catch you out lying to the FBI, using your own words...

    It's hard to tell just where this is going to go right now. Trump's appointment of Whitaker is clearly unconstitutional, and quite possibly further evidence of obstruction. Obviously intended to stop the Mueller investigation, it could have prompted precipitate action by him.

    That said, it has seen so much pushback, and not only from Democrats, that it looks as though Trump might try to appoint someone else quite quickly (Christie is reportedly being considered)... so Mueller might not rush to indict until he is ready.
    Lock him up I say.

    Mueller is awesome
    He is.
    He also has a stellar team of specialist prosecutors.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Are the state degelations required to vote per the presidential vote or the congressional one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,245
    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    There is also the miniscule chance of a faithless elector determining the whole thing. And wouldn't that be controversial!

    Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    f) Healthcare (should probably be a) )
    Agreed. Very good point.
    I'm mentally pricing 15-8/8-15 for the generic odds when considering presidential picks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
    Why would it be fairer? America is a federation not a unitary state.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    f) Healthcare (should probably be a) )
    Agreed. Very good point.
    I'm mentally pricing 15-8/8-15 for the generic odds when considering presidential picks.
    I think I'll stick to last time's strategy of betting on nominations.

    However a Dem contest is way less profitable than the GOP
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Anazina said:

    Why is Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson longer than Dwanye Johnson?

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/democrat-candidate

    Both 100/1. But the two versions of the name merely reflect Oddschecker not cleaning the data they take as feeds from the bookmakers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    There is also the miniscule chance of a faithless elector determining the whole thing. And wouldn't that be controversial!

    Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
    2016 Electoral college votes:

    Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. NorthWales, in 2010 Balls very nearly lost to a different Conservative candidate. A notional majority of 10,000 (boundaries changed) fell to about 1,000 or so. During the 2015 campaign, Balls spent some time campaigning in other seats, and the decline of UKIP may also have helped Jenkyns.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,415
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    Curious. Boris is just as scathing about Theresa as George Osborne ever was, yet Boris gets a free pass - no accusations of bitterness and disloyalty against him. Why is that? At least George had some reason to be rankled after his ignominious sacking.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Are the state degelations required to vote per the presidential vote or the congressional one?
    I believe they are meant to vote the way their state went for but there is scope for faithless electors.

    However I think things like if one candidate won the popular vote comfortably there might be momentum to do the right thing or if the congressional gerrymander has distorted the result.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    tlg86 said:

    currystar said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
    Unusual for the ONS to use the word "only":

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
    I am not too happy with the ONS using the word 'but' either.

    Words which give some positive or negative spin should be avoided by the ONS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,168
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Curious.

    https://twitter.com/kazweida/status/1062100579835695104?s=21

    "The perjury trap" - yeah, really unfair to catch you out lying to the FBI, using your own words...

    It's hard to tell just where this is going to go right now. Trump's appointment of Whitaker is clearly unconstitutional, and quite possibly further evidence of obstruction. Obviously intended to stop the Mueller investigation, it could have prompted precipitate action by him.

    That said, it has seen so much pushback, and not only from Democrats, that it looks as though Trump might try to appoint someone else quite quickly (Christie is reportedly being considered)... so Mueller might not rush to indict until he is ready.
    Lock him up I say.

    Mueller is awesome
    He is.
    He also has a stellar team....
    For example, Michael Dreeben is one of only seven lawyers to have argued over 100 cases before the Supreme Court...
    https://www.emptywheel.net/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/180928-Miller-Response.pdf
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    There is also the miniscule chance of a faithless elector determining the whole thing. And wouldn't that be controversial!

    Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
    2016 Electoral college votes:

    Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
    Faithless electors are more likely when the result is a foregone conclusion so the elector is safe to do so. The pressure not to be faithless in a tied situation would be immense.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Barnesian said:

    I think the Democrats are in a strong position for 2020.

    a) the demographics are slowly moving in their direction
    b) 2016 was extremely close
    c) there are more economic downside surprises than upside surprises by 2020
    d) Democrats know who their opponent is going to be - Trump (or just possibly Pence)
    e) Democrats have a range of able candidates covering the spectrum to choose from

    The Democrats are at 1.83 to win the 2020 election. That has to be good value. It should be nearer 1.5 in my opinion.

    f) Healthcare (should probably be a) )
    Agreed. Very good point.
    I'm mentally pricing 15-8/8-15 for the generic odds when considering presidential picks.
    I think that is the same as 1.5 for the Democrats in Betfair speak.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Stark_Dawning said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    Curious. Boris is just as scathing about Theresa as George Osborne ever was, yet Boris gets a free pass - no accusations of bitterness and disloyalty against him. Why is that? At least George had some reason to be rankled after his ignominious sacking.
    Everyone knows that Boris is primarily interested in advancing his own career.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,087
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
    Why would it be fairer? America is a federation not a unitary state.
    Pedant Hat On: America is a collection of countries.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,631
    williamglenn said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Er sorry?! Is that a different Boris from the one who switched from remain to leave in 2016 because he thought it would boost his leadership chances?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,631
    David_Evershed said:

    tlg86 said:

    currystar said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1062282911997661186

    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
    Unusual for the ONS to use the word "only":

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
    I am not too happy with the ONS using the word 'but' either.

    Words which give some positive or negative spin should be avoided by the ONS.

    Yes agreed - that's very poor from the ONS, they should stick to the data.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,245
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    That explains it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,384
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    The Tories have a fair few numpties representing Yorkshire seats. Yorkshire Puddings, you might say.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,781
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
    It’ll be the incoming one I think.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    williamglenn said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    If Boris has given up on becoming PM, I think he may agree with his brother that it is better to remain and call for a second referendum. That would be a game changer.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    That explains it.
    Most MPs lack star quality, It's not that shes particularly bad or out of sync as been inarticulate and uninformed, its just she contrasted so bady with who she replaced.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,631
    O/T: Went to see Bohemian Rhapsody last night...

    Wasn't expecting much as the critic reviews have been pretty dismissive but in fact it was a great film - not flawless but a really enjoyable watch.

    I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet seen it - worth seeing on the big screen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,245
    The complete silence from the EU and no 10 does give rise to the thought a deal is not far away
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,970
    SandyRentool said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    The Tories have a fair few numpties representing Yorkshire seats. Yorkshire Puddings, you might say.
    The HoC is certainly missing Ed Balls and his knowledge of economics. But he would not be anywhere near the front bench under the current shower.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,631
    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    Yes, I think that could well be right. Particularly if she can keep most of the cabinet on-board.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    There is also the miniscule chance of a faithless elector determining the whole thing. And wouldn't that be controversial!

    Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
    2016 Electoral college votes:

    Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
    Is that 'the' Colin Powell – Gen Colin Powell?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
    Why would it be fairer? America is a federation not a unitary state.
    It elects one president, so you could argue it would be fairer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,631
    rottenborough said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    The Tories have a fair few numpties representing Yorkshire seats. Yorkshire Puddings, you might say.
    The HoC is certainly missing Ed Balls and his knowledge of economics. But he would not be anywhere near the front bench under the current shower.
    Doesn't matter - he would still have a lot of influence. Any chance he can be persuaded back?
This discussion has been closed.

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