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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    So Belfast has a veto over Great Britain diverging from Northern Ireland. What does that have to do with the EU?

    Nothing, but for some reason they maintain that on the one hand the Withdrawal Agreement is completely separate from an agreement on the future relationship, and that the Withdrawal Agreement has to have a legally-binding commitment as to the future relationship on this point. Search me, I don't understand their logic either.
    The backstop is not part of the future relationship because by definition it will be superseded by the future relationship. It's an insurance policy and a constraint on the future relationship.
    Indeed, it's a complete nonsense, and has simply held up progress on the main issues to be discussed. The sooner it's put in the bin wrapped in fudge the better.
    It's completely logical and there will not be any compromise on it.
    Then there's no deal and the EU (according to their own, admittedly dodgy, logic) will have to insist that the Irish Republic puts up a hard border.

    Or, and massively more likely, they will back down. It's an absolutely stupid issue to crash the EU economies on, especially since doing so brings about the very eventuality they claim they are absolutely trying to avoid
    The EU negotiators probably can't believe their luck it ever got any traction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm not sure we will have to imagine that.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    So Belfast has a veto over Great Britain diverging from Northern Ireland. What does that have to do with the EU?

    Nothing, but for some reason they maintain that on the one hand the Withdrawal Agreement is completely separate from an agreement on the future relationship, and that the Withdrawal Agreement has to have a legally-binding commitment as to the future relationship on this point. Search me, I don't understand their logic either.
    The backstop is not part of the future relationship because by definition it will be superseded by the future relationship. It's an insurance policy and a constraint on the future relationship.
    Indeed, it's a complete nonsense, and has simply held up progress on the main issues to be discussed. The sooner it's put in the bin wrapped in fudge the better.
    It's completely logical and there will not be any compromise on it.
    Then there's no deal and the EU (according to their own, admittedly dodgy, logic) will have to insist that the Irish Republic puts up a hard border.

    Or, and massively more likely, they will back down. It's an absolutely stupid issue to crash the EU economies on, especially since doing so brings about the very eventuality they claim they are absolutely trying to avoid
    No Deal isn't an end-state, it's just the next phase of negotiations. A phase in which both sides will be negotiating with their balls in a vice. It's just that our vice will be considerably tighter than the EU's
  • Labour says it won't withdraw the humble address. Government + ERG + DUP are all abstaining, so there will be a vote and will carry either unanimously or nearly so.

    What happens next?

    ... the motion passes?
    You're a hecking genius.

    This is a humble address. It's directed not at the government, but at Her Majesty, requesting Her to command Her government to release the advice.

    I bet HM is furious at being dragged into politics and will want this to Go Away, fast and will be letting May know in no uncertain terms of Her displeasure in allowing this state of affairs to come about.

    So how does May respond?
    Technically it is aimed at Her Majesty but how is it any different to any time the government does something technically in Her Majesty's name?

    I don't see any reason HM needs be involved, the government exercises the powers in HM's name so they should respond to any humble address.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    It is by-election time again in the House of Lords.

    Due to the retirement of Lord Northbourne there is a vacancy in the crossbenchers.

    There are 11 candidates, including the new Lord Carrington, and 31 electors.

    As usual the election system is the alternative vote system.

    CVs for the candidates can be found:

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2018/Arrangements-by-election-12-11-18.pdf

    There will be another by-election soon, this time for a Conservative, due to the recent death of Lord Skelmersdale.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Doesn’t the fact they need passes mean it is not a constitutional right to be there?
    Whisper it quietly but you've probably found Brett Kavanagh's 'secret' argument when it heads to SCOTUS !
    I'm not sure there is a constitutional right to be a rude ass-hat and talk over the President of the United States either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Labour says it won't withdraw the humble address. Government + ERG + DUP are all abstaining, so there will be a vote and will carry either unanimously or nearly so.

    What happens next?

    ... the motion passes?
    You're a hecking genius.

    This is a humble address. It's directed not at the government, but at Her Majesty, requesting Her to command Her government to release the advice.

    I bet HM is furious at being dragged into politics and will want this to Go Away, fast and will be letting May know in no uncertain terms of Her displeasure in allowing this state of affairs to come about.

    So how does May respond?
    Technically it is aimed at Her Majesty but how is it any different to any time the government does something technically in Her Majesty's name?

    I don't see any reason HM needs be involved, the government exercises the powers in HM's name so they should respond to any humble address.
    Yep, she's pretty much a legal fiction when it comes to the workings of the state - certainly on technical stuff such as this.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited November 2018

    We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?

    It's not. There's not a snowflake's chance in hell that visas will be needed in either direction.
  • We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?

    To take back control of our borders.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    But just imagine if they don't.

    Life is difficult not just for the opposition
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Labour says it won't withdraw the humble address. Government + ERG + DUP are all abstaining, so there will be a vote and will carry either unanimously or nearly so.

    What happens next?

    ... the motion passes?
    You're a hecking genius.

    This is a humble address. It's directed not at the government, but at Her Majesty, requesting Her to command Her government to release the advice.

    I bet HM is furious at being dragged into politics and will want this to Go Away, fast and will be letting May know in no uncertain terms of Her displeasure in allowing this state of affairs to come about.

    So how does May respond?
    Technically it is aimed at Her Majesty but how is it any different to any time the government does something technically in Her Majesty's name?

    I don't see any reason HM needs be involved, the government exercises the powers in HM's name so they should respond to any humble address.
    Because this is a humble address. This is a motion directed directly at HM. Typically humble addresses are a polite formality, usually used by the House as a way to thank HM for the queen's speech and wish her a happy birthday. This, however, is not a polite formality but a rather impertinent attempt by the House to drag HM into a squabble in which she does not belong.

    The palace will need to issue a swift answer to the humble address, of the kind that thanks the House for its kind invitation to violate centuries of established constitutional convention, but graciously declines to do so. But my guess is it will not do anything of the sort until May and Corbyn have agreed behind the scenes to put this foolishness to bed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?

    Complete lack of trust between the parties. If one side unilaterally allows free movement it doesn't trust the other side to reciprocate. So it has to be coordinated and agreed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Labour says it won't withdraw the humble address. Government + ERG + DUP are all abstaining, so there will be a vote and will carry either unanimously or nearly so.

    What happens next?

    ... the motion passes?
    You're a hecking genius.

    This is a humble address. It's directed not at the government, but at Her Majesty, requesting Her to command Her government to release the advice.

    I bet HM is furious at being dragged into politics and will want this to Go Away, fast and will be letting May know in no uncertain terms of Her displeasure in allowing this state of affairs to come about.

    So how does May respond?
    Technically it is aimed at Her Majesty but how is it any different to any time the government does something technically in Her Majesty's name?

    I don't see any reason HM needs be involved, the government exercises the powers in HM's name so they should respond to any humble address.
    Because this is a humble address. This is a motion directed directly at HM. Typically humble addresses are a polite formality, usually used by the House as a way to thank HM for the queen's speech and wish her a happy birthday. This, however, is not a polite formality but a rather impertinent attempt by the House to drag HM into a squabble in which she does not belong.

    The palace will need to issue a swift answer to the humble address, of the kind that thanks the House for its kind invitation to violate centuries of established constitutional convention, but graciously declines to do so. But my guess is it will not do anything of the sort until May and Corbyn have agreed behind the scenes to put this foolishness to bed.
    Don’t worry, that centuries old convention was violated last year by Labour. This isn’t new.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?

    To take back control of our borders.
    I dunno about you, but I've taken back so much control I'm positively brimming and fit to burst.

    Ooh, I loves me some control I do.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
  • Scott_P said:
    Humiliating is verging on hyperbole, but ok.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Scott_P said:
    Humiliating is verging on hyperbole, but ok.
    No such thing as a normal defeat these days.
  • We didn't need visas to visit Spain when it was a Fascist dictatorship. Why the feck should this even be an issue for discussion now?

    To take back control of our borders.
    I dunno about you, but I've taken back so much control I'm positively brimming and fit to burst.

    Ooh, I loves me some control I do.
    I thought we didn’t discuss dominatrices before the lagershed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Given that she doesn't even have accurate data on who supports her in her own cabinet, I'd take whatever data May thinks she has on thinking in the opposition back benches with a galactic supercluster-sized mass of the finest pink Himalayan salt.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    Oh, and the Govt. has discovered that by culling badgers, new badgers move in - spreading TB.

    Which they would have known if they had just listened to my farmer neighbour.

    Fuckwits.

    Something we agree on, and this was something I was successful on, albeit sadly temporarily. Hilary Benn, when SoS for Ag, told me that instinctively he'd like to avoid the cull, but he needed scientific argument to persuade civil servants. I talked him through exactly that point, he got it and said that was what he needed. Two weeks later he announced that the cull would not go ahead.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    As soon as the deal is out in the wild, the political landscape will completely transform as people position themselves in relation to the real choices we face.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    As soon as the deal is out in the wild, the political landscape will completely transform as people position themselves in relation to the real choices we face.
    Do you think the deal will pass ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    As soon as the deal is out in the wild, the political landscape will completely transform as people position themselves in relation to the real choices we face.
    Do you think the deal will pass ?
    I don't think it will get that far before there's a consensus for a second referendum.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    So Belfast has a veto over Great Britain diverging from Northern Ireland. What does that have to do with the EU?

    Nothing, but for some reason they maintain that on the one hand the Withdrawal Agreement is completely separate from an agreement on the future relationship, and that the Withdrawal Agreement has to have a legally-binding commitment as to the future relationship on this point. Search me, I don't understand their logic either.
    The backstop is not part of the future relationship because by definition it will be superseded by the future relationship. It's an insurance policy and a constraint on the future relationship.
    Indeed, it's a complete nonsense, and has simply held up progress on the main issues to be discussed. The sooner it's put in the bin wrapped in fudge the better.
    The problem is, the Irish and the EU representing them, I believe, making the correct call on the issue. We should prioritise the soft land border over the customs border in the Irish Sea. If the UK doesn't accept the backstop it doesn't have any commitment to the soft land border. It has reneged on the commitment a couple of times already. While holding fast might lead to a bad result from the Irish perspective, backing down essentially guarantees it.

    Notwithstanding that they are being heavy handed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Given that she doesn't even have accurate data on who supports her in her own cabinet, I'd take whatever data May thinks she has on thinking in the opposition back benches with a galactic supercluster-sized mass of the finest pink Himalayan salt.
    The estimate I was given came from a Labour source. But actually I don't think there will be a deal that gets through the cabinet so in fact the Commons won't ever have the vote. We are heading for no deal, which ultimately will result in a second referendum.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Scott_P said:
    Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)
  • Just had a letter from the Inland Revenue telling me that from 6th April 2019 some of the income tax paid by us in Wales will directly fund services in Wales including the NHS and Schools.

    10% of all tax rates, 20 - 40 and 45 will go to the Welsh Government. All tax will be collected in the same way

    No more Tory cuts then
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
  • Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)

    A few might be, but this really does seem to be a straightforward case of the government getting it wrong. I don't know why they haven't backed down already - they can't win this, and quite rightly so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    As soon as the deal is out in the wild, the political landscape will completely transform as people position themselves in relation to the real choices we face.
    Do you think the deal will pass ?
    I don't think it will get that far before there's a consensus for a second referendum.
    Gordon Browns's proposal for a royal commission needs to be implemented. Then people will sympathise more with the case for a further public vote.

    However, a GE, with some parties promising a referendum might be more honourable, followed by a referendum. That would be much as happened in 1974-75. Enoch Powell said vote Labour; this time Heseltine et al might say the same.
  • Just reading the thread the intensity on both sides of brexit just grows as each side batters the other and each side remains entrenched

    I have no idea where we go with this but I will not be drawn into endless arguing as I am fortunate to accept that no matter how much I beat myself up I will have little effect on the outcome.

    No deal - deal - remain all have negatives and few positives
  • Not really. She's virtue-signalling in front of the European Parliament while doing absolutely nothing about it, safe in the knowledge that she's on the way out.

    That said, virtue-signalling from heads of government isn't a risk-free action and she has more than enough form on that already.

    If she were genuinely in favour, then she would need to argue in favour of a single country with a unified central government. Armed forces are an intrinsic feature of a sovereign state and if you create a genuinely unified European force, then you need a political structure to manage them, develop and implement defence policy, and ultimately, deploy them across the world as necessary. I very much doubt that Merkel will go there, hence its all silly verbal gesturing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    The EU might well up the ante and make the terms even worse, theyve proved remarkably stupid to date in how to make an agreement
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Given that she doesn't even have accurate data on who supports her in her own cabinet, I'd take whatever data May thinks she has on thinking in the opposition back benches with a galactic supercluster-sized mass of the finest pink Himalayan salt.
    The estimate I was given came from a Labour source. But actually I don't think there will be a deal that gets through the cabinet so in fact the Commons won't ever have the vote. We are heading for no deal, which ultimately will result in a second referendum.
    All speculation
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited November 2018

    Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)

    A few might be, but this really does seem to be a straightforward case of the government getting it wrong. I don't know why they haven't backed down already - they can't win this, and quite rightly so.
    The intriguing part is that I saw Williamson's name on the list earlier. I'm assuming that is wrong, or it is another Williamson in parliament.
  • Scott_P said:
    Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)
    I really cannot understand the politics in this. But that is true of most everything in politics today
  • Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Given that she doesn't even have accurate data on who supports her in her own cabinet, I'd take whatever data May thinks she has on thinking in the opposition back benches with a galactic supercluster-sized mass of the finest pink Himalayan salt.
    Inevitably, she can't know who will support what until we know what what is. The whips will have a much better idea within a week of any done deal being published.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
    A Brexit vote in a referendum would be a vote for the exit deal on the table and not for anything else.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Not really. She's virtue-signalling in front of the European Parliament while doing absolutely nothing about it, safe in the knowledge that she's on the way out.

    That said, virtue-signalling from heads of government isn't a risk-free action and she has more than enough form on that already.

    If she were genuinely in favour, then she would need to argue in favour of a single country with a unified central government. Armed forces are an intrinsic feature of a sovereign state and if you create a genuinely unified European force, then you need a political structure to manage them, develop and implement defence policy, and ultimately, deploy them across the world as necessary. I very much doubt that Merkel will go there, hence its all silly verbal gesturing.
    Up to you of course David , but these ideas have a tendancy to gain their own momentum. The one consistent thing of my 40 odd years watching the EU is brits telling me the EU doesnt mean what it has explicitly stated and then looking surprised when it does what it said.

    Much of our unhappy relationship with the EU stems from that simple process.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Pulpstar said:

    Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)

    A few might be, but this really does seem to be a straightforward case of the government getting it wrong. I don't know why they haven't backed down already - they can't win this, and quite rightly so.
    The intriguing part is that I saw Williamson's name on the list earlier. I'm assuming that is wrong, or it is another Williamson in parliament.
    Well there is Gavin and Chris for a start. Who share little else in common.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748

    Not really. She's virtue-signalling in front of the European Parliament while doing absolutely nothing about it, safe in the knowledge that she's on the way out.

    That said, virtue-signalling from heads of government isn't a risk-free action and she has more than enough form on that already.

    If she were genuinely in favour, then she would need to argue in favour of a single country with a unified central government. Armed forces are an intrinsic feature of a sovereign state and if you create a genuinely unified European force, then you need a political structure to manage them, develop and implement defence policy, and ultimately, deploy them across the world as necessary. I very much doubt that Merkel will go there, hence its all silly verbal gesturing.
    Up to you of course David , but these ideas have a tendancy to gain their own momentum. The one consistent thing of my 40 odd years watching the EU is brits telling me the EU doesnt mean what it has explicitly stated and then looking surprised when it does what it said.

    Much of our unhappy relationship with the EU stems from that simple process.
    We are the EU. The problem is the self-othering of those who have been in denial for 40 years.
  • BREXITERS’ passionate opposition to a second referendum is definitely not because of fear they would lose, they have confirmed.

    Brexit voters agree that no referendum on the terms of leaving the EU is necessary because they would win and the last one was in no way a fluke.

    https://tinyurl.com/LeaversAreTraitors
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
    A Brexit vote in a referendum would be a vote for the exit deal on the table and not for anything else.
    I agree. But, if the vote were lost, there would be very little time to come up with an alternative.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Good. (Although I wonder how many are using it as a proxy route to give Hammond a good kicking for his Brexit position.....)

    A few might be, but this really does seem to be a straightforward case of the government getting it wrong. I don't know why they haven't backed down already - they can't win this, and quite rightly so.
    The intriguing part is that I saw Williamson's name on the list earlier. I'm assuming that is wrong, or it is another Williamson in parliament.
    Well there is Gavin and Chris for a start. Who share little else in common.
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1062277028781658114
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Not really. She's virtue-signalling in front of the European Parliament while doing absolutely nothing about it, safe in the knowledge that she's on the way out.

    That said, virtue-signalling from heads of government isn't a risk-free action and she has more than enough form on that already.

    If she were genuinely in favour, then she would need to argue in favour of a single country with a unified central government. Armed forces are an intrinsic feature of a sovereign state and if you create a genuinely unified European force, then you need a political structure to manage them, develop and implement defence policy, and ultimately, deploy them across the world as necessary. I very much doubt that Merkel will go there, hence its all silly verbal gesturing.
    Up to you of course David , but these ideas have a tendancy to gain their own momentum. The one consistent thing of my 40 odd years watching the EU is brits telling me the EU doesnt mean what it has explicitly stated and then looking surprised when it does what it said.

    Much of our unhappy relationship with the EU stems from that simple process.
    We are the EU. The problem is the self-othering of those who have been in denial for 40 years.
    tosh

    next youll be telling me about"influence"
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
    A Brexit vote in a referendum would be a vote for the exit deal on the table and not for anything else.
    Not really. It would have to be all options to be fair
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
    A Brexit vote in a referendum would be a vote for the exit deal on the table and not for anything else.
    Not really. It would have to be all options to be fair
    That's just it. There won't be any other options. Once an exit deal has been negotiated, that will be what Brexit means. 'No deal' is a risk if the process concludes without a deal, but it's not a viable option.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    The EU might well up the ante and make the terms even worse, theyve proved remarkably stupid to date in how to make an agreement
    Remarkably stupid? I don't think so, the EU had three main objectives in the Brexit process;

    To maintain the unity of the 27;
    To ensure that the UKs position outside the EU was less favourable that its position inside it;
    To keep the UK as close as possible to EU rules on markets, product standards etc etc.

    All of these objectives have been achieved.

    The UK's objective appears to have been to ask BMW to call up Merkel and insist on her giving us a unicorn each. Amazingly this has not worked very well.
  • NEW THREAD

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I see a centrist Democrat has won the Arizona senate seat after all votes have been counted.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/us/kyrsten-sinema-arizona-senator.html

    Kaching.

    "Centrist", she's a former Green party member.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    If May's deal is approved by 50% + 1, then that's what Brexit will mean.

    If it isn't, then it's up to Parliament to agree a way forward, but if they can't agree a way forward, then we leave with no deal.
    A Brexit vote in a referendum would be a vote for the exit deal on the table and not for anything else.
    Not really. It would have to be all options to be fair
    That's just it. There won't be any other options. Once an exit deal has been negotiated, that will be what Brexit means. 'No deal' is a risk if the process concludes without a deal, but it's not a viable option.
    No deal is as much an option as remain though it may not suit your agenda
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited November 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just imagine the reaction on twitter if, with May's Gov't completely on the ropes, enough Labour MPs back a deal to dig them out the hole they're in xD !

    I'm told that the number of Labour MPs who might suppprt a May deal is estimated in the PLP to be about 12. If that is right the government has to reduce the ERG rebels to a small handful, particularly if the DUP don't back the deal.
    Are Grieve and Soubry onboard with the deal ?
    The mood inside the PCP for another referendum is growing.

    Those two prefer that to no deal.
    That should eliminate trhe Conservatives then
    Sadly so does No Deal.
    Nah no deal is simply economic with scare mongering
    2nd referendum is economic and political with endless we wuz robbed

    I cant see how the Tories can continue of that basis
    Not to mention that a second referendum could well result in no deal.
    How can it? If there is an exit deal, that's what Brexit will mean.
    The EU might well up the ante and make the terms even worse, theyve proved remarkably stupid to date in how to make an agreement
    Remarkably stupid? I don't think so, the EU had three main objectives in the Brexit process;

    To maintain the unity of the 27;
    To ensure that the UKs position outside the EU was less favourable that its position inside it;
    To keep the UK as close as possible to EU rules on markets, product standards etc etc.

    All of these objectives have been achieved.

    The UK's objective appears to have been to ask BMW to call up Merkel and insist on her giving us a unicorn each. Amazingly this has not worked very well.
    The very essence of a deal is both sides accept it. A deal will not hold if they dont.

    You are confusing negotiation tactics on which the EU has outplayed the UK with the final outcome. A one sided deal never sticks.
  • Not really. She's virtue-signalling in front of the European Parliament while doing absolutely nothing about it, safe in the knowledge that she's on the way out.

    That said, virtue-signalling from heads of government isn't a risk-free action and she has more than enough form on that already.

    If she were genuinely in favour, then she would need to argue in favour of a single country with a unified central government. Armed forces are an intrinsic feature of a sovereign state and if you create a genuinely unified European force, then you need a political structure to manage them, develop and implement defence policy, and ultimately, deploy them across the world as necessary. I very much doubt that Merkel will go there, hence its all silly verbal gesturing.
    Up to you of course David , but these ideas have a tendancy to gain their own momentum. The one consistent thing of my 40 odd years watching the EU is brits telling me the EU doesnt mean what it has explicitly stated and then looking surprised when it does what it said.

    Much of our unhappy relationship with the EU stems from that simple process.
    Sure, and that's why I think she's unwise to talk like this. But she's been Chancellor for 13 years and you have to ask why she's saying this now when she's already in lame-duck territory.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Scott_P said:
    Still smells like No Deal then....just trying not to kill the EU's tourist trade from the UK?
    this is visa waiver and it is 100% likely to happen either way

    £6.50 fantastic
    Last week there were some reports the visa would be £52 each to visit the EU.
    G, no way the Europeans would be that stupid
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    TOPPING said:

    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:



    Still, this is all shadow boxing.

    Labour is attempting a pigfucker gambit on May, and the ERG are going to help them do it.
    Why the language
    Rhetoric, Big G, it's a rhetorical device.
    It is just coarse, you would only expect that from an oaf.
    A well-placed expletive can be very effective, Malc, you cream-faced loon, you.
    You are an oafish bounder Topper
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Just had a letter from the Inland Revenue telling me that from 6th April 2019 some of the income tax paid by us in Wales will directly fund services in Wales including the NHS and Schools.

    10% of all tax rates, 20 - 40 and 45 will go to the Welsh Government. All tax will be collected in the same way

    No more Tory cuts then

    G , I think you mean budget cuts and Wales will need to raise taxes to handle. We already have that luxury.
    in Scotland.
This discussion has been closed.