Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Ojeda – my 250/1 longshot to take on the draft-dodging

245

Comments

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    There is also the miniscule chance of a faithless elector determining the whole thing. And wouldn't that be controversial!

    Unlikely but if we have learnt anything in recent years it is that the unlikely can happen.
    2016 Electoral college votes:

    Colin Powell 3 (WA), John Kasich 1 (TX), Ron Paul 1 (TX), Bernie Sanders 1 (HI), Faith Spotted Eagle 1 (WA)
    Faithless electors are more likely when the result is a foregone conclusion so the elector is safe to do so. The pressure not to be faithless in a tied situation would be immense.
    The USA is the kind of country where you could get assassinated for being a faithless elector in a close contest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
    It’ll be the incoming one I think.
    It is:
    https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/

    If I am reading that right, the President and Vice President would very probably be the opposing candidates:
    State House delegations can cast their vote for president from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes, while Senators are limited to the top two candidates in their vote for Vice-President...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    I also think there will be a challenge from the cabinet if this is the outcome.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    O/T: Went to see Bohemian Rhapsody last night...

    Wasn't expecting much as the critic reviews have been pretty dismissive but in fact it was a great film - not flawless but a really enjoyable watch.

    I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet seen it - worth seeing on the big screen.

    I don't know what film the critics were watching. I loved it. And it has been huge in the States. Taken $100m.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited November 2018

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
  • Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    So - how many Cabinet resignations by midnight?
  • Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
    Why would it be fairer? America is a federation not a unitary state.
    It elects one president, so you could argue it would be fairer.
    If America was one state yes you could.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    We need to see the full list of "worst things you've done in your life". We'll decide.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
    Big G, with respect, the public reaction against Chequers is fact. Tying us in the customs union will be spun far more negatively as it doesn't give us freedom.

    It also doesn't tally with our trade policy re: WTO. And the HoC has voted against it 6 times.

    I think it is far less likely to be a Govt. aim than you and Anazina wish it to be.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    So - how many Cabinet resignations by midnight?

    None. I'm pretty sure any caving to achieve a deal this week will be blocked by cabinet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    :+1:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to take down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    Fun though it may be to see the re-incarnated Ed Balls being tazered by rednecks, never forget he was one of the inner circle of Gordon Brown's really evil Death-eaters. Weighed in the round, you still did a good thing.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    We've all become either infected with Brexititis of Brexist Derangement Syndrom.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    Trumpton. Would command a majority of state delegations in the House. (Most states wins not most votes). In practice, one elector could do the decent thing and be faithless, and change his vote to that of the national popular vote. Which would be much fairer.
    Why would it be fairer? America is a federation not a unitary state.
    It elects one president, so you could argue it would be fairer.
    If America was one state yes you could.
    You can still argue it is fairer, you can also argue it the other way (but you'd be dancing on the head of a pin, given we are talking about one elector from 538).

    Personally, I think the whole presidential election should be determined by popular vote. Just as it is in Mexico, which is also a federation of states.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
    Big G, with respect, the public reaction against Chequers is fact. Tying us in the customs union will be spun far more negatively as it doesn't give us freedom.

    It also doesn't tally with our trade policy re: WTO. And the HoC has voted against it 6 times.

    I think it is far less likely to be a Govt. aim than you and Anazina wish it to be.
    If we're outside the CU, where is the customs border ?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    O/T: Went to see Bohemian Rhapsody last night...

    Wasn't expecting much as the critic reviews have been pretty dismissive but in fact it was a great film - not flawless but a really enjoyable watch.

    I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet seen it - worth seeing on the big screen.

    I don't know what film the critics were watching. I loved it. And it has been huge in the States. Taken $100m.
    Watched it also the other night, was fantastic. Not what i was expecting... Dragged there by my lovely wife.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    I also think there will be a challenge from the cabinet if this is the outcome.
    Yes, Mortimer, the bloke on the internet who flogs old books, doesn't agree. But we all knew that anyway.

    We'll see about the rest of the country.
  • Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
    It’ll be the incoming one I think.
    It is:
    https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/

    If I am reading that right, the President and Vice President would very probably be the opposing candidates:
    State House delegations can cast their vote for president from among the three candidates receiving the most electoral votes, while Senators are limited to the top two candidates in their vote for Vice-President...
    No originally that was the case yes but I'm pretty certain from memory an amendment has passed that changed Presidency votes and Vice Presidency votes to different elections technically. So the Veep would be from top 2 candidates for the Veep election (ie the running mate of both Presidential candidates) rather than the top 2 Presidential candidates.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
    Quite.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
  • Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to take down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    Fun though it may be to see the re-incarnated Ed Balls being tazered by rednecks, never forget he was one of the inner circle of Gordon Brown's really evil Death-eaters. Weighed in the round, you still did a good thing.
    Plus Dave really wanted it. For some reason Ed Balls could and did get under Dave’s skin.

    Next morning Dave said politics is a bit Game of Thrones, 24 hours earlier Balls was measuring up the curtains in Number 11 and now he’s no longer an MP.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    Obfuscation.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
    It’ll be the incoming one I think.
    No, think about it. The new congress forms about the same tie as the presidential inauguration, so it has to be a vote in the outgoing house. Something similar happened in 2000 when Gore as VP was chairing the debate in the senate where the result of the Florida Election was being voted on, determinimg that Bush would beat Gore.
  • Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
    Big G, with respect, the public reaction against Chequers is fact. Tying us in the customs union will be spun far more negatively as it doesn't give us freedom.

    It also doesn't tally with our trade policy re: WTO. And the HoC has voted against it 6 times.

    I think it is far less likely to be a Govt. aim than you and Anazina wish it to be.
    The public rejection or otherwise of Chequers is unknown as I would defy anyone to be able to get an explanation of it from any member of the public.

    If in time the UK can diverge from the EU to enable joining the trans pacific trade area that would be a big plus but not at the short term cost of destroying our JIT manufacturing or threaten our union.

    The problem for ERG is they are trying to achieve something in a couple of years that needs a decade of negotiations and in the process alienating many who want to leave the EU but not at any price
  • Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to take down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    Fun though it may be to see the re-incarnated Ed Balls being tazered by rednecks, never forget he was one of the inner circle of Gordon Brown's really evil Death-eaters. Weighed in the round, you still did a good thing.
    He was also Brown's right hand man in the utterly disastrous 1997 decision to wreck our banking supervision system.

    Mind you, compared with the dolts on the current Labour front bench, he's a titan.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
  • tlg86 said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
    Unusual for the ONS to use the word "only":

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
    I wonder if you put the recent general election dates on that chart whether it suggests that Cameron's victory in 2015 owed a lot to Osborne's timing - and May's shambles in 2017 was not only because she ran a bad campaign.
  • eristdoof said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Who wins if the Electoral college is a tie (AZ, WI, MI all flip) ?

    vote of the House
    By state though so the GOP still win.
    Is it the lame duck or incoming Congress that votes? Because the Democrats stand a reasonable chance of taking the Senate in 2020 so that could matter for Veep.
    It’ll be the incoming one I think.
    No, think about it. The new congress forms about the same tie as the presidential inauguration, so it has to be a vote in the outgoing house. Something similar happened in 2000 when Gore as VP was chairing the debate in the senate where the result of the Florida Election was being voted on, determinimg that Bush would beat Gore.
    It’s the incoming one.

    It is seated on the 3rd of January and they vote on it on the 6th of January.

    https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,726
    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    I also think there will be a challenge from the cabinet if this is the outcome.
    Yes, Mortimer, the bloke on the internet who flogs old books, doesn't agree. But we all knew that anyway.

    We'll see about the rest of the country.
    You like the idea of vassalage? And keeping prices high so as to protect European industries?
  • Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    Well it's all a choice of comparison.

    2018 is a world of pygmies and those distracted by other things.

    Anyway, at least Norwich are doing well...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to take down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    Fun though it may be to see the re-incarnated Ed Balls being tazered by rednecks, never forget he was one of the inner circle of Gordon Brown's really evil Death-eaters. Weighed in the round, you still did a good thing.
    Plus Dave really wanted it. For some reason Ed Balls could and did get under Dave’s skin.

    Next morning Dave said politics is a bit Game of Thrones, 24 hours earlier Balls was measuring up the curtains in Number 11 and now he’s no longer an MP.
    But if it is Game of Thrones, you never quite be sure he's (politically) dead.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    There's no political will within the EU to see a customs border within Ireland, and our Gov't has pretty much signed up to it. Similiarly, Foster will bring down the Gov't (It also won't pass parliament) faster than you can blink if there is an Irish sea customs border.

    There is no political will for a customs border anywhere which means the choice is either "No deal" or a de facto customs union.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Scott_P said:
    UK Job vacancies at record high as Full Employment bites. 87,000 more people came to the UK from the EU than left the EU.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.
    Only with ERG
    Big G, with respect, the public reaction against Chequers is fact. Tying us in the customs union will be spun far more negatively as it doesn't give us freedom.

    It also doesn't tally with our trade policy re: WTO. And the HoC has voted against it 6 times.

    I think it is far less likely to be a Govt. aim than you and Anazina wish it to be.
    If we're outside the CU, where is the customs border ?
    Right down the middle of the River Foyle.

    No big deal ;-)
  • Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Oh, and the Govt. has discovered that by culling badgers, new badgers move in - spreading TB.

    Which they would have known if they had just listened to my farmer neighbour.

    Fuckwits.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Scott_P said:
    I'm sure that has nothing to do with the wage growth...
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    notme said:

    O/T: Went to see Bohemian Rhapsody last night...

    Wasn't expecting much as the critic reviews have been pretty dismissive but in fact it was a great film - not flawless but a really enjoyable watch.

    I recommend it to anyone who hasn't yet seen it - worth seeing on the big screen.

    I don't know what film the critics were watching. I loved it. And it has been huge in the States. Taken $100m.
    Watched it also the other night, was fantastic. Not what i was expecting... Dragged there by my lovely wife.
    I remember vividly the Queen set at LiveAid one very sunny July day 33 years ago. The film captures it perfectly except it's not very sunny in the film.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    What does this even mean? Revenue per employee or something?
    How can that be improved? Is this a symptom of UK businesses aversion to capital investment as opposed to simply hiring more people?
    It doesn't matter, Scott thinks its bad new so he retweets it
    Unusual for the ONS to use the word "only":

    https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1062280559911714817
    I wonder if you put the recent general election dates on that chart whether it suggests that Cameron's victory in 2015 owed a lot to Osborne's timing - and May's shambles in 2017 was not only because she ran a bad campaign.
    I'm not sure how much credit George should get for the collapse in the oil price.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    An interesting argument for various Democrats not to run for President:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/a-sherrod-brown-presidential-run-has-one-really-obvious-problem.html
    ...(Sherrod) Brown’s main appeal is that he’s the only Democrat seemingly capable of winning in Ohio, his (Senate) seat could be lost for the foreseeable future.

    Brown isn’t the only candidate who needs to make this sort of tough calculation. Instead of running for president, Beto O’Rourke could try to go after Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. Montana Governor Steve Bullock might be interested in the Oval Office. But he might be be more useful taking on on Republican Sen. Steve Daines. West Virginia’s Richard Ojeda, who went so far as to announce his presidential bid on Monday after losing his House bid last week, might do better to try to knock off Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. But with Brown, the tension is a bit more clear, both because he’s such a compelling presidential candidate on paper, and because winning the presidency would actually guarantee that his Senate seat flipped, rather than simply remain in Republican hands...


    I've suggested already that O'Rourke might be better running for the Senate again in 2020, but hadn't considered that this argument applies quite widely (and controlling the Senate goes quite some way to determining how effective a Democratic President might be).
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me ng made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not beingan of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    Obfuscation.

    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The suckess was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    e custoough detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    Obfuscation.
    Norway and Sweden manage it, historically their relationship is not a million miles away from that with UK and Ireland.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

    I repeat. The problem is as large or as small as the negotiators need/want it to be.
  • notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    I don't think you need worry about the political 'will', it's the political 'won't' from the DUP that should concern you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    This is, of course, not a problem for Kamala Harris...
  • Mr. P, must be grateful after Labour backed him over bullying.

    Mr. Anazina, some say Balls is absolutely, bloody brilliant.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    edited November 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Lots of job vacancies is surely a good thing. It seems that Lord Rose was correct.

    You'd think the Guardian would welcome such a statistic.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Nigelb said:

    An interesting argument for various Democrats not to run for President:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/a-sherrod-brown-presidential-run-has-one-really-obvious-problem.html
    ...(Sherrod) Brown’s main appeal is that he’s the only Democrat seemingly capable of winning in Ohio, his (Senate) seat could be lost for the foreseeable future.

    Brown isn’t the only candidate who needs to make this sort of tough calculation. Instead of running for president, Beto O’Rourke could try to go after Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. Montana Governor Steve Bullock might be interested in the Oval Office. But he might be be more useful taking on on Republican Sen. Steve Daines. West Virginia’s Richard Ojeda, who went so far as to announce his presidential bid on Monday after losing his House bid last week, might do better to try to knock off Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. But with Brown, the tension is a bit more clear, both because he’s such a compelling presidential candidate on paper, and because winning the presidency would actually guarantee that his Senate seat flipped, rather than simply remain in Republican hands...


    I've suggested already that O'Rourke might be better running for the Senate again in 2020, but hadn't considered that this argument applies quite widely (and controlling the Senate goes quite some way to determining how effective a Democratic President might be).

    Why would it cost his senate seat ? Ohio isn't out of reach for the blues.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    G, people just wanted to kick the elite self seeking no users out, they would have elected a monkey if it was running
  • So that puts the DUP in an awkward position. They're aren't well known for compromising and have made it extremely clear that a 'border' in the Irish Sea isn't acceptable.
  • Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    I have.

    So much for his intellect when he enriched Sharon Shoosmith just so he could get a good headline.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    notme said:


    Obfuscation.

    Norway and Sweden manage it, historically their relationship is not a million miles away from that with UK and Ireland.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

    I repeat. The problem is as large or as small as the negotiators need/want it to be.
    You link to an article showing a truck park full of vehicles waiting to cross the border...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,154
    edited November 2018

    Oh, and the Govt. has discovered that by culling badgers, new badgers move in - spreading TB.

    Which they would have known if they had just listened to my farmer neighbour.

    Fuckwits.

    What we need to do is arm the existing badgers to fight against new badgers moving in....Trump Logic.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Oh, and the Govt. has discovered that by culling badgers, new badgers move in - spreading TB.

    Which they would have known if they had just listened to my farmer neighbour.

    Fuckwits.

    What did Owen Patterson say;’ the badgers changed the rules’. Or something like that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    Cuckoo
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. P, must be grateful after Labour backed him over bullying.

    Mr. Anazina, some say Balls is absolutely, bloody brilliant.

    Indeed. He is an absolute giant compared to the assortment of clowns, wasters and dullards populating the front benches of both main parties nowadays.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:
    This smarmy arrogance is not helpful.
  • King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.
  • Oh, and the Govt. has discovered that by culling badgers, new badgers move in - spreading TB.

    Which they would have known if they had just listened to my farmer neighbour.

    Fuckwits.

    What did Owen Patterson say;’ the badgers changed the rules’. Or something like that.
    Better than that they 'moved the goalposts'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    I was almost going to vote to leave, but then I listened to Richard Nabavi here explain why remaining would be the better option. And he was right.
    If only the voters of Sunderland had listened to PB :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    I have.

    So much for his intellect when he enriched Sharon Shoosmith just so he could get a good headline.
    Come on TSE, stop judging everyone else's intellect against your own unattainable standards. :wink:
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    I don't think you need worry about the political 'will', it's the political 'won't' from the DUP that should concern you.
    A customs border isnt people in towers with rifles and heavy weaponary. It can be ANPR, and operating facilities at the border if needed within a EEA frawmework.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    I have.

    So much for his intellect when he enriched Sharon Shoosmith just so he could get a good headline.
    Come on TSE, stop judging everyone else's intellect against your own unattainable standards. :wink:
    Surely this is the very essence of the website.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,748
    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    With a customs border down the Irish sea?
    The solution will make itself available if the poltiical will is there. The problem of Ireland is directly proportionate to the EU needs to negotiate with.
    I don't think you need worry about the political 'will', it's the political 'won't' from the DUP that should concern you.
    A customs border isnt people in towers with rifles and heavy weaponary. It can be ANPR, and operating facilities at the border if needed within a EEA frawmework.
    There is no political will to put "operating facilities" on the border and there never could be.

    I don't know why this is such a difficult point to accept.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:


    Obfuscation.

    Norway and Sweden manage it, historically their relationship is not a million miles away from that with UK and Ireland.

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

    I repeat. The problem is as large or as small as the negotiators need/want it to be.
    You link to an article showing a truck park full of vehicles waiting to cross the border...
    yes, outside the customs union. They'll be approved trade, but subject to checks. But not checking people.

    A no deal outcome (which is what will happen in march if parliament does not approve the deal given to them) will be much worse than that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    Did you previously post here as Snowflake, Yvette?
  • That is a pretty hefty fall in EU employment in the last year (more than made up for by a rise in UK-born employment). Suggests lower EU immigration to me
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    Did you previously post here as Snowflake, Yvette?
    @Bobajob, @Jobabob, @The_last_boy_scout
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.

    Indeed. The re-introduction, or otherwise, of the Lynx is a surprisingly hot topic in these parts. It hasn't happened so far. Hence, a deer cull is planned.
    Venison will be cheap and plentiful mind.
  • FE: BBC's showing Formula E live next year, for those interested.

    https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1062302518942859265

    Well, until they piss away millions on a semi-identical music 'talent' show format, obviously.
  • dixiedean said:

    King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.

    Indeed. The re-introduction, or otherwise, of the Lynx is a surprisingly hot topic in these parts. It hasn't happened so far. Hence, a deer cull is planned.
    Venison will be cheap and plentiful mind.
    I’ve always thought venison was a little dear.

    (That’s a joke that only works if you say it out loud)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting argument for various Democrats not to run for President:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/a-sherrod-brown-presidential-run-has-one-really-obvious-problem.html
    ...(Sherrod) Brown’s main appeal is that he’s the only Democrat seemingly capable of winning in Ohio, his (Senate) seat could be lost for the foreseeable future.

    Brown isn’t the only candidate who needs to make this sort of tough calculation. Instead of running for president, Beto O’Rourke could try to go after Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. Montana Governor Steve Bullock might be interested in the Oval Office. But he might be be more useful taking on on Republican Sen. Steve Daines. West Virginia’s Richard Ojeda, who went so far as to announce his presidential bid on Monday after losing his House bid last week, might do better to try to knock off Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. But with Brown, the tension is a bit more clear, both because he’s such a compelling presidential candidate on paper, and because winning the presidency would actually guarantee that his Senate seat flipped, rather than simply remain in Republican hands...


    I've suggested already that O'Rourke might be better running for the Senate again in 2020, but hadn't considered that this argument applies quite widely (and controlling the Senate goes quite some way to determining how effective a Democratic President might be).

    Why would it cost his senate seat ? Ohio isn't out of reach for the blues.
    Because the Republican governor would appoint his replacement.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    An interesting argument for various Democrats not to run for President:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/a-sherrod-brown-presidential-run-has-one-really-obvious-problem.html
    ...(Sherrod) Brown’s main appeal is that he’s the only Democrat seemingly capable of winning in Ohio, his (Senate) seat could be lost for the foreseeable future.

    Brown isn’t the only candidate who needs to make this sort of tough calculation. Instead of running for president, Beto O’Rourke could try to go after Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. Montana Governor Steve Bullock might be interested in the Oval Office. But he might be be more useful taking on on Republican Sen. Steve Daines. West Virginia’s Richard Ojeda, who went so far as to announce his presidential bid on Monday after losing his House bid last week, might do better to try to knock off Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. But with Brown, the tension is a bit more clear, both because he’s such a compelling presidential candidate on paper, and because winning the presidency would actually guarantee that his Senate seat flipped, rather than simply remain in Republican hands...


    I've suggested already that O'Rourke might be better running for the Senate again in 2020, but hadn't considered that this argument applies quite widely (and controlling the Senate goes quite some way to determining how effective a Democratic President might be).

    Why would it cost his senate seat ? Ohio isn't out of reach for the blues.
    Because the Republican governor would appoint his replacement.
    Got it, yes the Senate is probably tougher than the presidency for the Dems in 2020.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Nigelb said:

    An interesting argument for various Democrats not to run for President:

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/11/a-sherrod-brown-presidential-run-has-one-really-obvious-problem.html
    ...(Sherrod) Brown’s main appeal is that he’s the only Democrat seemingly capable of winning in Ohio, his (Senate) seat could be lost for the foreseeable future.

    Brown isn’t the only candidate who needs to make this sort of tough calculation. Instead of running for president, Beto O’Rourke could try to go after Texas Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in 2020. Montana Governor Steve Bullock might be interested in the Oval Office. But he might be be more useful taking on on Republican Sen. Steve Daines. West Virginia’s Richard Ojeda, who went so far as to announce his presidential bid on Monday after losing his House bid last week, might do better to try to knock off Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. But with Brown, the tension is a bit more clear, both because he’s such a compelling presidential candidate on paper, and because winning the presidency would actually guarantee that his Senate seat flipped, rather than simply remain in Republican hands...


    I've suggested already that O'Rourke might be better running for the Senate again in 2020, but hadn't considered that this argument applies quite widely (and controlling the Senate goes quite some way to determining how effective a Democratic President might be).

    This perhaps suggests an interesting strategy for the Democrats, which would be to run Ojeda, O'Rourke and Bullock as high profile, well funded insurgent Senate candidates, alongside the President and VP picks - which might arguably give them the same electoral juice as two or three VP picks...
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779

    King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.

    There is an argument in wildlife preservation circles that we shouldn't try and 'save' the Panda as clearly evolution has gone down a bit of a dead-end (a carnivore that only eats bamboo ffs) and without mans intervention (both positive and negative) it would probably die out anyway. It's that balance between 'keep as it is now' and 'minimal impact' which still isn't really resolved as far as I can tell.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    He was also incredibly unpopular with the public.

    Remember his approval ratings were usually below even Ed Miliband's (which is saying something).
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    FE: BBC's showing Formula E live next year, for those interested.

    https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1062302518942859265

    Well, until they piss away millions on a semi-identical music 'talent' show format, obviously.

    If there is a market on MotoE next year then Bradley Smith is a decent bet for champion. His palmarès is far better than anyone else involved apart from Sete Gibernau who is 102 years old.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited November 2018
    Anazina said:

    Mortimer said:

    Anazina said:

    If Tezza brokers a deal that keeps us in the CU and offers stability and certainty for business and employees, nobody is going to be listening to sinister wreckers like Johnson and Rees anymore. And her polling will rapidly rise.

    I don't agree.

    Given the way public opinion baulked at Chequers' 'facilitated customs arrangement', keeping us in the CU either permanently (or as good as permanently if the exit isn't unilaterally achievable), and therefore abdicating our trade and customs policy to a foreign power, will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    I also think there will be a challenge from the cabinet if this is the outcome.
    Yes, Mortimer, the bloke on the internet who flogs old books, doesn't agree. But we all knew that anyway.

    We'll see about the rest of the country.
    And we all knew that the bloke on the internet who keeps forgetting his passwords wants to remain in the Customs Union, but you still keep reminding us.

    @BigG - when chequers was published polling on it was dire, as was cabinet and backbench reaction. Just don't see how something that is more of a compromise will fly...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    dixiedean said:

    King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.

    Indeed. The re-introduction, or otherwise, of the Lynx is a surprisingly hot topic in these parts. It hasn't happened so far. Hence, a deer cull is planned.
    Venison will be cheap and plentiful mind.
    I’ve always thought venison was a little dear.

    (That’s a joke that only works if you say it out loud)
    It's fun to tell PETA types that one enjoys eating Bambi.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    I know what they say about him. They are wrong. Balls is big intellect and a top guy. That he rubs some rank and file up the wrong way is a plus point in my view. Have you ever met him?
    Did you previously post here as Snowflake, Yvette?
    @Bobajob, @Jobabob, @The_last_boy_scout
    Just joshing with my fellow Forest fan....
  • Mr. Ace, I'm entirely unfamiliar with that, must admit. What odds does Bradley Smith have?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    Boris says the delay is just theatre and a Deal will be reached keeping the UK in the Customs Union and as a colony of the EU and we should switch to 'super Canada'

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Lennon said:

    King Cole, the badgers have moved the goalposts.

    As an aside, badgers are a prime reason hedgehogs are struggling. The former have no natural predators and outcompete the latter for food (and, very occasionally, just eat hedgehogs). People bemoan the declining hedgehog numbers but whine loudly if any action to control badger numbers is raised.

    There is a wider debate we ought to have about stewardship of the natural world. Are we aiming to preserve the status quo in aspic? Should we let species go extinct if it's for natural reasons? When should we reintroduce species and when shouldn't we?

    Some have proposed wolf or lynx reintroductions to the UK in order to control deer numbers. That's likely a good idea but I pity the politicians, because at some point someone will undoubtedly suffer a bite or suchlike (even if it's their own damned fault) and the politician who gave the nod will get it in the neck.

    There is an argument in wildlife preservation circles that we shouldn't try and 'save' the Panda as clearly evolution has gone down a bit of a dead-end (a carnivore that only eats bamboo ffs) and without mans intervention (both positive and negative) it would probably die out anyway. It's that balance between 'keep as it is now' and 'minimal impact' which still isn't really resolved as far as I can tell.
    The pandas don't help themselves with a shockingly low fecundity. If they weren't so cute they probably would be a goner already.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Danny565 said:

    Anazina said:

    Listening to Andrea Jenkyns on Sky you just have to wonder how on earth she beat Ed Balls.

    She is clueless

    She won thanks to the campaigning skills of David Herdson and myself.

    It is probably the worst thing I’ve done in my life.
    Out of interest, had you not realised quite how useless she was at the time? :wink:
    Met her once and she seemed shy more than anything, sadly like too many Tories she’s become infected by Brexitis.

    I was mostly campaigning for the wonderful Stuart Andrew in Pudsey but the opportunity to take down Ed Balls was too good to turn down.

    Plus I wanted to do the ‘Balls deep in trouble’ headline for PB on election night.
    I have never grasped the opprobrium some direct at Ed Balls. He is a good guy. Sensible, moderate, tough and competent. We need more people like him in politics, not fewer.
    He was Gordon Brown’s consigliere for over a decade.

    If you think Tories say some rude things about him you should hear what Labour folk privately say about him.

    Remember he was Ed Miliband’s third choice to be Shadow Chancellor.
    He was also incredibly unpopular with the public.

    Remember his approval ratings were usually below even Ed Miliband's (which is saying something).
    However, so was Portillo. Having seen a more human side of him helps greatly in public perception.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited November 2018
    notme said:

    notme said:

    TOPPING said:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1062289237553410048

    I agree with Boris that what we are seeing now is a staged drama before a deal is unveiled. The sucking of teeth makes me feel much more happy than a month ago when everyone was fervently telling us what good progress was being made.

    I'm looking forward to him donning a suit of armour, assembling a band of like-minded souls, and marching on Westminster.

    His main leadership campaign slogan will be "I wouldn't have done it like that".
    I bet if you got him in private he would all be in favour of Single Market. He was always pro immigraton.
    Boris may in favour of the single market, but not being in the single market without being in the EU. Latterly I think Boris Johnson has a lot more integrity than Michael Gove, who is the real guilty man of Brexit.
    Really? Membership of the EEA, outside the customs union seems the best solution. And not as a temporary measure, but a long term commitment. Membership of the single market with the ability to strike trade agreements. Withdrawal period needed to work through detatchment from the existing setup.
    No as that requires free movement unlike the Customs Union along with lots of regulations.

    Most Leavers were voting to regain control of our laws and borders not to strike trade deals with the US and China in their favour.

    Single Market alone does not solve the Irish border either, Barnier is clear that needs a Customs Union
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    Again Ojeda actually needs to get elected to Congress or a governorship before running for President

    Trump didn't
    Trump was a billionaire like Ross Perot and could fund his own campaign and had celebrity name recognition from the Apprentice
This discussion has been closed.