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  • Foxy
    Foxy Posts: 52,171
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Foxy said:

    Crazy on Betfair. I bet on 190-199 Dems at 42 15 min ago. Now 3.

    take your money
    Just hedging a bit. Not much liquidity
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmm, Democrats' prospects looking a BIT better now. West Virginia looks like it's in their column now, whereas the first exit polls put Manchin behind.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059982706036105217
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    CNN forecasts the House is now leaning Democrat while control of the Senate is likely Republican
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    O’Rourke is 6% up with 47% in, but lots of GOP not counted yet.
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    We still have nothing from the Midwest, Indiana excepted. I think Republicans will overperform there.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    Texas is 47% in, according to CNN.
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    FL is over 90% in but:

    Broward 51% in
    Dade 75% in
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    MikeL said:

    FL is over 90% in but:

    Broward 51% in
    Dade 75% in

    I think the Senate might stay DEM but that the Governorship might stay GOP.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    I know it's what the NYT site is saying but that 1% in doesn't look right, given they've both got circa 1.3m votes. Feels more like 30% in.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Arse, I promised not to comment.

    KY6 is 88% in and the Dem is 5K behind with about 35K votes to go. For her to win she'll have to take 20K of those votes, and 20K out of 35K is 57%. If the remaining votes are all rural, I don't see that happening. So unless a urban area has an unopened sack of votes, I think the Dem has lost in KY6
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    MikeL said:

    FL is over 90% in but:

    Broward 51% in
    Dade 75% in

    which is what we said for Clinton

    Fool me once...
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    I know it's what the NYT site is saying but that 1% in doesn't look right, given they've both got circa 1.3m votes. Feels more like 30% in.
    47% in.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    CNN says the Democrats currently leading in 21 target seats.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Quincel said:

    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.

    The theory is that it's likely (not solid) red seats
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    I know it's what the NYT site is saying but that 1% in doesn't look right, given they've both got circa 1.3m votes. Feels more like 30% in.
    Me and Nabavi are sooo screwedif it is 1%. It'd mean 200% turnout lol
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    are we looking at a FL recount?
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Quincel said:

    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
    This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    MikeL said:

    FL is over 90% in but:

    Broward 51% in
    Dade 75% in

    which is what we said for Clinton

    Fool me once...
    I have memories of POTUS2016. It's not over until the panhandle sings... :(
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
    This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
    As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
    Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.
    4.5% was the worst re election margin for any US president before George W Bush won by 2.4% in 2004 and Obama was re elected by 3.2% in 2012.

    IKE was re elected by 15% in 1956 (and he also lost Congress in the 1954 midterms), LBJ was re elected by 23% in 1964, Nixon was re elected by 23% in 1972, Reagan was re elected by 18% in 1984, Bill Clinton was re elected by 8% in 1992.

  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    I think NYT in figure is % of precincts 100% in - ie doesn't count partial precincts.
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Quincel said:


    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.

    There was a suggestion the input feeds have gone wonky, thus the dramatic changes. Without seeing the internals though, who knows.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Stereotomy said:

    Quincel said:

    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
    This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
    I have to imagine their sports predictions are much better....
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    edited November 2018
    Stereotomy said:

    Quincel said:

    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
    This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
    What we really need is an @AndyJS spreadsheet.

    [EDIT: I'm really not joking... :( ]
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    20 million votes counted and only 2 House seats have changed hands, FL27 and VA10.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Pulpstar said:

    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Texas Senate

    O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

    1% in

    I know it's what the NYT site is saying but that 1% in doesn't look right, given they've both got circa 1.3m votes. Feels more like 30% in.
    Me and Nabavi are sooo screwedif it is 1%. It'd mean 200% turnout lol
    Maybe there is something in those voter fraud allegations after all! :smile:
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    R hold Ky-6, clearly no blue wave
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Quincel said:

    Andrew said:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059982719554215936

    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.
    This happens every time. 538 should just stop doing their live forecasts until they can improve it
    I have to imagine their sports predictions are much better....
    Their general forecasts are good, it's the live one that has this problem
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    R hold Ky-6, clearly no blue wave

    Blue ripple?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2018
    FLA 26 Dems 51% GOP 49% 87% in

    FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 32% in
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    edited November 2018
    O’rourke 3% up with 50% in.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    Andrew said:

    Quincel said:


    If the model is overreacting to early GOP holds then frankly Nate Silver and co should be kicking themselves. The order of races being counted isn't hard to predict, and something they should have factored in.

    There was a suggestion the input feeds have gone wonky, thus the dramatic changes. Without seeing the internals though, who knows.
    I *really* like the word "wonky".
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    NYT live forecast down also - common problem?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    VA 7 Dems 50% 49% GOP 94% in

    VA 2 Dems 50% GOP 50% 86% in
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    say "at this point" once more I dare you
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Ojeda nearly 10% down in WV7 at the moment
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    O’rourke 3% up with 50% in.

    People talked about O'Rourke benefiting the Dems in some close House seats in Texas, not sure where the votes are so far but maybe true?
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    edited November 2018
    The exit poll answers don’t seem to exact match up with where people actuallly put their cross. They would have been better asking what is your favourite hair colour....
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NC 9 Dems 50% GOP 48% 16% in
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Mortimer said:

    M.Partridge said:

    Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

    Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?
    It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

    Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.
    This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.
    As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman
    Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.
    4.5% was the worst re election margin for any US president before George W Bush won by 2.4% in 2004 and Obama was re elected by 3.2% in 2012.

    IKE was re elected by 15% in 1956 (and he also lost Congress in the 1954 midterms), LBJ was re elected by 23% in 1964, Nixon was re elected by 23% in 1972, Reagan was re elected by 18% in 1984, Bill Clinton was re elected by 8% in 1992.

    Indeed so , but your comment had implied that Bush won reelection in 2004 by a bigger margin than gained by Truman in 1948. That was not the case.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Democrats need to do well in California.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Wow Beto has now gone ahead of Cruz - plus Harris County still to come!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    HYUFD said:

    VA 7 Dems 50% 49% GOP 94% in

    VA 2 Dems 50% GOP 50% 86% in

    There are some seriously close results that will determine the overall result
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The exit poll answers don’t seem to exact match up with where people actuallly put their cross.

    they don't - think 2016
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Any news from WV Senate
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Benpointer said:

    Wow Beto has now gone ahead of Cruz - plus Harris County still to come!

    Beto has been ahead of Cruz from the start; but CNN are not bigging it up. They think there are lots of Cruz votes to come.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NJ 3 GOP 61% Dems 37% 10% in
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    Any news from WV Senate

    Manchin looking OK, down on his landslide but fine
  • TheJezziah
    TheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    I can see the advantages to Republicans doing well, less excuses come 2020 and more desire to get the Republicans out. Whilst I wish Americans the best of luck with their choice my higher priority is them saving the rest of us from their choice for which 2020 is more relevant.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Any news from WV Senate

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/west-virginia
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Wow Beto has now gone ahead of Cruz - plus Harris County still to come!

    Beto has been ahead of Cruz from the start; but CNN are not bigging it up. They think there are lots of Cruz votes to come.
    Tx looks exciting though.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    rcs1000 said:

    Any news from WV Senate

    Manchin 52% Morrissey 43% 32% in
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Dems look like they might eke out the VA-2 and VA-7. Both narrow but both would be gains.
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Any news from WV Senate

    Manchin 52% Morrissey 43% 32% in
    Morrissey's doing badly. Heaven knows he's miserable now.

    Pause.

    And so to bed.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Wow Beto has now gone ahead of Cruz - plus Harris County still to come!

    Beto has been ahead of Cruz from the start; but CNN are not bigging it up. They think there are lots of Cruz votes to come.
    CNN has been giving Beto star treatment for months. They think he will lose
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Quincel said:

    Dems look like they might eke out the VA-2 and VA-7. Both narrow but both would be gains.

    along with Fl-26, huge
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    Florida senate: Scott® leading by 0.8% with 85% in but remaining precints are in Dem favouring areas. Could be v close.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Broward jumping from 51% to 70% make little difference - bad for Dem.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    Neil not too happy about Nate:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059987292989857792
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Any news from WV Senate

    Manchin 52% Morrissey 43% 32% in
    Morrissey's doing badly. Heaven knows he's miserable now.

    Pause.

    And so to bed.
    Just remember, there is a light and it never goes out...
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    edited November 2018
    MikeL said:

    Broward jumping from 51% to 70% make little difference - bad for Dem.

    Dems overrelying upon magic last votes from Florida......again......
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    edited November 2018
    Tim_B said:

    Mortimer said:

    Benpointer said:

    Wow Beto has now gone ahead of Cruz - plus Harris County still to come!

    Beto has been ahead of Cruz from the start; but CNN are not bigging it up. They think there are lots of Cruz votes to come.
    CNN has been giving Beto star treatment for months. They think he will lose
    You can see it on the face of CNN stat board guy.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    FL depends on the SIZE of the Broward precincts to come.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,867
    I need to sleep. Unfortunately.

    Enjoy all.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Mortimer said:

    MikeL said:

    Broward jumping from 51% to 70% make little difference - bad for Dem.

    Dems overrelying upon magic last votes from Florida......again......
    If they do manage to pull it back how any days / hours / minutes will take for trump to rant about voter fraud?
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Right, work tomorrow. Night all!

    Be careful with your spread bets...
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    So, Republicans gain - I would guess - Florida, North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. Democrats miss in Arizona. Nevada still to come, but I would guess R+3 in the Senate.

    House looks like the Dems will eke out quite a few narrow gains. My money would be on them narrowly gaining it.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Cruz now back to level with o’rourke with a lot of GOP strongholds to come.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Gary Johnson has failed to get elected.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeL said:

    FL depends on the SIZE of the Broward precincts to come.

    +1
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    edited November 2018
    RoyalBlue said:

    Right, work tomorrow. Night all!

    Be careful with your spread bets...

    Just had flashback nightmares of the Ryder cup....shudders.
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Are we looking at another triumph for US bigotry and neo-fascism?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    GOP hold KY6.

    Blue puddle, it would seem...
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    TN called for GOP
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited November 2018
    justin124 said:

    Are we looking at another triumph for US bigotry and neo-fascism?

    No, most likely a mixed bag, the Democrats narrowly gain the House and pick up a few governorships and state legislatures, the GOP increase their lead in the Senate
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Democrats projected to hold their New Jersey Senate seat
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Menendez - even after his corruption trial - wins NJ. One famous newspaper endorsement was headlined "Choke it down and vote for Menendez".
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    edited November 2018
    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house. Democrats have good candidates but...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2018
    25 million votes counted and still only two seats changing hands.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house.

    John King again desperately looking for dem votes
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Tim_B said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house.

    John King again desperately looking for dem votes
    You get the feeling he is looking behind the set, down the back of the sofa, ....
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house. Democrats have good candidates but...

    Does anyone have a link for watching CNN online in the UK?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    AndyJS said:

    25 million votes counted and still only two seats changing hands.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

    Just doesn't feel like a house flipping night...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tim_B said:

    TN called for GOP

    Tim, it seems you were right to be sceptical about the Democrats' chances of winning the House a few days ago.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Gillum is mayor of Tallahassee. It turns out he was under federal corruption investigation - he called everyone who asked him about it a racist. He is also very left wing.
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    Tim_B said:

    Menendez - even after his corruption trial - wins NJ. One famous newspaper endorsement was headlined "Choke it down and vote for Menendez".

    A bit unfortunate choice of words as Menendez has also been accused of sleeping with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house. Democrats have good candidates but...

    Does anyone have a link for watching CNN online in the UK?
    I'm watching on the tele, but

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    seems to be working.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Pelosi speaking now
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,735
    Lyin Ted ahead now.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CNN hosts very downbeat, talking about not impossible for democrats to win the house. Democrats have good candidates but...

    Does anyone have a link for watching CNN online in the UK?
    I'm watching on the tele, but

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-day-2018/index.html

    seems to be working.
    Thanks, that works.
  • Benpointer
    Benpointer Posts: 35,627
    edited November 2018
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Lyin Ted ahead now.

    Hmmm NYT must be behind the curve - still shows O'Rourke at +1.6

    EDIT: O'Rourke +3.6% now with Harris County beginning to report
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NJ 7 Dems 52% GOP 46% 7% in
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    OH 12 GOP 51% Dems 48% 29% in
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    rpjs said:

    Tim_B said:

    Menendez - even after his corruption trial - wins NJ. One famous newspaper endorsement was headlined "Choke it down and vote for Menendez".

    A bit unfortunate choice of words as Menendez has also been accused of sleeping with underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic.
    Or possibly not :-)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    NC 9 Dems 50% GOP 49% 43% in
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    25 million votes counted and still only two seats changing hands.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html

    Just doesn't feel like a house flipping night...
    I'm significantly more bullish on the House Dems than I was an hour ago. There are a lot of close races, they are 2-3% ahead in.

    I suspect they'll end up gaining 25-30 seats and just snagging the House.
  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    IN Senate called for GOP
  • Quincel
    Quincel Posts: 4,042
    Watching Bredensen fall far short in Tennessee and Indiana revert to the Reds, I wouldn't feel too good if I were Jon Tester in Montana right now.

    Says the man who has bets on him holding on.
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