One of the shreds of comfort for the Democrats is that their results look pretty solid in some of the key swing states in presidential elections (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).
Getting a bit repetitive, but it's now 30 million votes counted... and still only 2 seats changing hands.
To be pedantic, only two seats are confirmed to be changing hands. The Democrats are currently ahead in enough seats to flip the House, but most of the contests are still too close to call.
Anyone using a better Senate drill down tool than the NYT one? - which seems to be talking rubbish in various places (e.g. Texas only '3%' reporting after >5m votes)
They've likely fallen 10-15 short of where they might have gone in the House, but they've still probably gained it. They have lost a number of Senate seats - certainly Florida and Indiana - and likely Missouri and North Dakota. They've made some gubnatorial gains, but not as many as they'd hoped.
Midterms for the umpteenth term have no relevance whatsoever to presidential elections, Clinton and Obama were both re elected comfortably despite terrible first midterms, W Bush was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman despite great first midterms, Carter lost to Reagan despite the Democrats holding the House and Senate in 1978.
It looks like the GOP will comfortably hold the Senate, the Democrats may still take the House but with more of a trickle than a wave but its consequences for 2020 will be virtually nil
Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much
Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.
I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.
When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much
Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.
I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.
When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.
Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.
>95% chance of Dem control. Quite a bit different from 538.
I wouldn't be that positive, but the last 90 minutes has seen the Dems consolidate lots of leads in toss-up races. If California is good for them, victory in the House will be some succour for them.
Nate Cohn saying NYT live forecast finally about to go live.
Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.
>95% chance of Dem control. Quite a bit different from 538.
I wouldn't be that positive, but the last 90 minutes has seen the Dems consolidate lots of leads in toss-up races. If California is good for them, victory in the House will be some succour for them.
California should seal the House at least for the Dems, in 2016 Trump was ahead in the national popular vote at this point before California came in, the Democrats currently fractionally lead the national popular vote in the House
Tim, it seems you were right to be sceptical about the Democrats' chances of winning the House a few days ago.
Thanks for the compliment. I was sceptical last week, but I said on here that over the weekend I felt the GOP House hold slipping away, but was fairly sure about the Senate
Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much
Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.
I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.
When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
If you realise how the Senate is composed, you also realise that a Dem win would require a Dem landslide.
Fox calling for Dems to win House but don't know by how much
Dems look likely to pick up four House seats in Pennsyvania: the 5th, 6th, 7th and 17th.
I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.
When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
Yes, tonight's results mean the GOP will probably keep the Senate in 2020 as well.
If you realise how the Senate is composed, you also realise that a Dem win would require a Dem landslide.
Yes, there are only about 20 reliably blue states which puts the Dems at a big long-term disadvantage in the Senate.
The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.
Looks like the polls have had a pretty good night. Indiana was off, but most Senate seats are going to form - even if that means a narrow win for one side where the other had a small lead (Florida, for example).
The Dems are doing very well in wealthy suburbia. The Illinois 13th was a likely Republican seat, that was gerrymandered to be a fairly safe one, and the Dems look likely to nab it.
It will be interesting to see the Orange County results.
The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.
Yeah, and predictably Betfair followed blindly. Managed to make a small profit on that.
The 538 House model was utterly appalling this evening. There was never a time when it looked less that about 65% likely to be a Democratic gain, even when there were a few poor Virginia results.
Yeah, and predictably Betfair followed blindly. Managed to make a small profit on that.
538 took the role of overly swingy live forecast that makes people place stupid bets, which is normally the NYT tracker.
Comments
As of 9:03 p.m. Essentially the toss ups are breaking pretty evenly.
The two Virginia plus FL-27 is critical
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html
And on that bombshell, I'm off to bed. G'night all!
Beto O'Rourke
Dem.
2,691,351 50.9%
Ted Cruz*
Rep.
2,534,644 48.0%
They've likely fallen 10-15 short of where they might have gone in the House, but they've still probably gained it. They have lost a number of Senate seats - certainly Florida and Indiana - and likely Missouri and North Dakota. They've made some gubnatorial gains, but not as many as they'd hoped.
It looks like the GOP will comfortably hold the Senate, the Democrats may still take the House but with more of a trickle than a wave but its consequences for 2020 will be virtually nil
I think we're looking at D+28, for a narrow victory.
When we look at this is a week's time, we'll say the Republicans had a genuinely great Senate result, the Dems had a good but not great House one, and it was a mixed bag in the governor races, with the Dems making gains but missing out on the biggest scalps.
Edit: and there it is. Calling for 232-203.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html
NY Times projects the GOP have a 95% chance of holding the Senate and projects 53 GOP Senators to 47 Dem
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/election-results/virginia-2nd-congressional-district/?utm_term=.b7d711e7d885
What a mess.
Mitt Romney projected to win the Utah Senate seat for the GOP
Florida has voted to restore voting rights to 1.4 million resident felons who have completed their sentences.
The amendment to Florida's constitution required 60% approval to pass....
It will be interesting to see the Orange County results.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html
Similar to Broward earlier