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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the early votes are counted if we do see a blue wave young and non white voters will be behind it

So far, we’re seeing the highest non-white voter turnout ever for a midterm election.#ElectionNight#Midterms2018 https://t.co/Zw67LwhYxm

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RobD

First

Mortimer

Second, like the GOP tonight?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1059973179786051584

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1059972229075742720

HYUFD

Florida Governor Dems 50% GOP 48% 34% in

HYUFD

Florida Senate Dems 51% GOP 49% 39% in

HYUFD

Indiana Senate GOP 56% Dems 41% 27% in

Mortimer

Florida is SOOOOO close

MikeL

FL Gov is 82% in per CNN

HYUFD

West Virginia Senate Manchin 58% Morrisey 37% <1% in

RoyalBlue

Mortimer said:

Florida is SOOOOO close

I think the Democrats have got it.

dixiedean

Still early. There was a if you aren't ready for PM Corbyn you should be thread.

HYUFD

Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat

TheScreamingEagles

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1059975153470373888

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat

Freeing her up to get running from 9am tomorrow...

HYUFD

Ohio 12 Dems 53% GOP 46% <1% in

TheScreamingEagles

13% in and Beto is polling nearly 60%.

Foxy

TheScreamingEagles said:

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

lying Ted lying stunned?

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

Mortimer

TheScreamingEagles said:

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

Its Dallas, right?

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

Crickey....lying ted could be in for a pasting.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/maitlis/status/1059975687375933440

dixiedean

TheScreamingEagles said:

Holy mother tucker.

Just seen the early Texas Senate results.

Which are?

FrancisUrquhart

Hanging chad time in Florida.....

HYUFD

NC 9 Dems 51% GOP 48% <1% in

NC 13 Dems 49% GOP 49% <1% in

rottenborough

Wow. Beto just crashed to 2.7

Quincel

The 538 Model and Betfair have suddenly turned away from the blue team. Now a 80% chance to take the house, but down from 95% shortly ago.

HYUFD

FLA 26 Dems 50% GOP 50% 62% in

FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 37% in

RoyalBlue

The Democrats are not going to win Texas.

I retract my comment about Florida from 5 minutes ago

FrancisUrquhart

I think we could turn Florida voting into weekly sport...nail biter photo finish guaranteed every time.

HYUFD

Democrats projected to hold Connecticut and Delaware and Rhode Island Senate races

HYUFD

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Warren projected to hold her Massachussets Senate seat

Freeing her up to get running from 9am tomorrow...

She will be making her move soon certainly

M.Partridge

Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

Chameleon

If I remember correctly in Texas the 14 big urban counties report first, followed by the rural counties, which is a reverse of most states. Don't get too excited.

MikeL

Lots of votes still to come in Broward and Dade.

Danny565

Hmm, I think the Republicans will edge Florida...

HYUFD

Democrats currently have 24 House Representatives elected to 19 GOP

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1059977575248941056

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/1059977362098536448

Quincel

M.Partridge said:

Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

Now 32.4%, I think it's the Virginia house results?

Stereotomy

M.Partridge said:

Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

Yep, not a lot of explanation on why from their live blog.

RoyalBlue

Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

AndyJS

Betfair all over the place.

AndyJS

M.Partridge said:

Republicans now 27.3% chance to take house on 538.....

That's nearly double what it was before the polls closed.

Danny565

It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.

rcs1000

RoyalBlue said:

Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

RoyalBlue said:

Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.

where?

rcs1000

There are lots of REALLY, REALLY close House results.

rottenborough

Chameleon said:

If I remember correctly in Texas the 14 big urban counties report first, followed by the rural counties, which is a reverse of most states. Don't get too excited.

Doesn't look like that to me on the map i am looking at.

AndyJS

Danny565 said:

It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.

Whereabouts?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/henryolsenEPPC/status/1059977372114608129

M.Partridge

31.9% Chance for Republican House Hold......it was 5% about half an hour ago....

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1059978242382270465

Danny565

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

It's all going tits-up for the Democrats.

Whereabouts?

Generally, across the board, they're off by a few % from 538's projections. Which points to net losses in the Senate, and control of the House a total toss-up.

Quincel

Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

M.Partridge

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Mortimer

Florida politics must be hugely exciting.

rcs1000

Indiana and Arizona both looking very good for the Republicans. That means the only likely pickup for the Dems is Nevada. The best the can be looking at - realistically - now is -1. And it's more likely to be -2 or even -3.

AndyJS

rcs1000 said:

There are lots of REALLY, REALLY close House results.

RCP had upped their number of toss-ups from about 26 to 38 in the last couple of days so I'm not surprised by how many close races there are.

FrancisUrquhart

Quincel said:

Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

Where is this movement coming from?

RoyalBlue

The Democrats have blown it. I think the Republicans will hold the House and the Senate.

A triumph for Trump.

Mortimer

M.Partridge said:

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?

Quincel

Quincel said:

Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

538 concurs, evens both ways.

TheWhiteRabbit

Quincel said:

Quincel said:

Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

538 concurs, evens both ways.

other way round, BF punters just reading 538

But what is 538 looking at?

rcs1000

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

RoyalBlue said:

Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.

where?

A couple of Virginia "toss ups" are looking like R holds, VA-7 and VA-5.

AndyJS

Don't want to blow my own trumpet but I did say a few days ago that I thought the GOP would do better than expected in the House.

Quincel

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Quincel said:

Quincel said:

Betfair crossing over on House betting. Wow.

538 concurs, evens both ways.

other way round, BF punters just reading 538

But what is 538 looking at?

Agree, I think the markets mostly just follow 538 on nights like this. No idea what the base info is, but lots of tossups narrowly leaning red on live results.

M.Partridge

538 now saying 60% chance GOP house hold plus they are set to gain 4 Senate seats....

rcs1000

Mortimer said:

M.Partridge said:

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?

It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.

HYUFD

Democrats projected to hold Ohio Senate seat

Mortimer

Underestimate election winners' ability to fight elections at your peril, it would seem.

Danny565

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059979110993350662

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

rcs1000 said:

RoyalBlue said:

Republicans now have a 1/3 chance to win the House, and the Senate is more or less guaranteed.

Yes, House results looking better for the Republicans now.

where?

A couple of Virginia "toss ups" are looking like R holds, VA-7 and VA-5.

they don't need them though

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1059979523561799680?s=21

HYUFD

TX 32 Dems 53% GOP 46% 1% in

RoyalBlue

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

M.Partridge said:

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?

It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.

This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.

Quincel

The 538 model now has Dems back as favourites, but frankly it's leaping all over the shop with little explanation.

Mortimer

Danny565 said:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059979110993350662

Getting a majority on the Bench must be a dream come true for conservatives.

The ability of the GOP to get the vote out is so, so impressive.

HYUFD

KY 6 GOP 51% Dems 48% 85% in

Quincel

If I had better nerves I'd back the outsider on Betfair over and over, got a sense the markets will wobble over and over.

HYUFD

FLA 26 Dems 51% GOP 49% 77% in

FLA 15 GOP 53% Dems 47% 78% in

rottenborough

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/psythor/status/1059979523561799680?s=21

It aint over till its over.

I have upped my stake on Dem taking House.

MikeL

Dems went to 3 on Betfair then back to fav within about 2 mins!

HYUFD

NC 9 Dems 51% GOP 48% in 10% in

Andrew

Quincel said:

If I had better nerves I'd back the outsider on Betfair over and over, got a sense the markets will wobble over and over.

Was just about to suggest that - the overreactions are wild.

FrancisUrquhart

Lying Ted still behind in Texas.

Andrew

Some slight worries from 538:
"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

Stereotomy

From Nathaniel Rakich at 538:

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

From what I remember the 538 election night live forecast has always had problems like this. It's obviously not looking great for the Dems right now but I wouldn't take their numbers *too* seriously yet.

All the swinging and overreacting makes me wish I was betting, though...

rottenborough

There is money to be made on BF. It is all over the shop.

Just made a few quid in seconds on House majority. Bet on Dems, laid off within a minute.

Small sums, but beer money.

FrancisUrquhart

Stereotomy said:

From Nathaniel Rakich at 538:

"You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts."

From what I remember the 538 election night live forecast has always had problems like this. It's obviously not looking great for the Dems right now but I wouldn't take their numbers *too* seriously yet.

All the swinging and overreacting makes me wish I was betting, though...

It should be reminded that 538 now makes most of its income from sports and Nate silver does virtually no work on political modelling these days.

HYUFD

RoyalBlue said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

M.Partridge said:

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?

It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.

This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.

As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman

Foxy

Crazy on Betfair. I bet on 190-199 Dems at 42 15 min ago. Now 3.

AndyJS

538 predicts 24 Democrat gains in the House. They need 23 for a majority. That's how close it is. I'd be amazed if we get a final result tonight.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1059981237194878979

TheWhiteRabbit

Foxy said:

Crazy on Betfair. I bet on 190-199 Dems at 42 15 min ago. Now 3.

take your money

HYUFD

Florida Governor

Republican 49.7% Democrat 49.1% 72% in

Florida Senate

Republican 50.2% Democrat 49.8% 74% in

HYUFD

West Virginia Senate

Democrat 53% GOP 42% 13% in

justin124

HYUFD said:

RoyalBlue said:

rcs1000 said:

Mortimer said:

M.Partridge said:

Holy shit 538 now has it 47.4% for GOP to hold the house!!!!!

Blue wave turning into a bit of a damp squib....?

It's looking like an amazing night for the Republicans.

Which - ironically - probably bodes ill for Trump 2020.

This is his victory. If there’s no recession, he’ll be re-elected.

As I have consistently said midterms are irrelevant in presidential election terms, Clinton lost the House and Senate and was re elected, Obama lost the House and was re elected, Carter held the House and Senate and lost re election, George W Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002 and was re elected by the narrowest margin since Truman

Truman actually won quite comfortably in 1948 - his lead was 4.5%.

HYUFD

Texas Senate

O'Rourke 49.7% Cruz 49.7%

1% in