politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

First?

Third, like the next EU referendum.......

Perhaps it's time for another peer of the realm to be PM? The youngsters don't seem too keen on democracy these days, so it'd be a nice compromise.

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

Re: Brexit itself well what is their to say. Suez on Steroids as I've argued since the 24/6/16 with constitutional crisis as a substitute for military defeat. Brexit is a constitutional crisis. An alien constitutional event, an advisory referendum onnan existential issue, is forcing the Queen-in-Parliament which is where soveriegnty lies to do something it can't and doesn't want to do. So the whole machine is blowing up. However chaotic Brexit has been todate this is still the initial phase. There is much worse to come.

And one of the reasons with is Suez on Steroids is their is no sane US president to tell us we are drunk and go home as in the original Suez. President Clinton or indeed any normal US administration would have banged heads together by now. But Trump is happy to watch the world burn as it suits his agenda.

RobD said:

Perhaps it's time for another peer of the realm to be PM? The youngsters don't seem too keen on democracy these days, so it'd be a nice compromise.

I notice Blair made a major Brexit speech *at the Labour Party constituency dinner* in his *old seat* of Sedgefield in the last 7 days. How interesting.

Interesting idea. Howwver, I still see this as rather unlikely and a snap general election far more so.

I'd want very good odds to be tempted on this.

RobD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Re: Brexit itself well what is their to say. Suez on Steroids as I've argued since the 24/6/16 with constitutional crisis as a substitute for military defeat. Brexit is a constitutional crisis. An alien constitutional event, an advisory referendum onnan existential issue, is forcing the Queen-in-Parliament which is where soveriegnty lies to do something it can't and doesn't want to do. So the whole machine is blowing up. However chaotic Brexit has been todate this is still the initial phase. There is much worse to come.

And one of the reasons with is Suez on Steroids is their is no sane US president to tell us we are drunk and go home as in the original Suez. President Clinton or indeed any normal US administration would have banged heads together by now. But Trump is happy to watch the world burn as it suits his agenda.

Clinton would have stopped Brexit? Not sure what right she would have had to meddle.

If the front page of the FT today is anything to go by the US is actually on our side (and not the EU's) when it comes to domiciling banks in the UK.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/f9ba5588-d21a-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

@Casino_Royale - Congratulations!

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Congratulations. May your child pay taxes towards my pension and sundry other freebies handed out to reasonably well off elderlies for no obvious reason for a long time to come.

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Well done, another Corbynite.

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

congrats. CR hope all goes well

could I just advise you may want to luxuriate in sleep now, you wont get much of it for the next 10 years

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Well done, another Corbynite.

Lol. I’ll sign her up for your West Sussex Marxist meet on birth ;-)

On topic there was always going to be a crunch point in the discussions with the EU. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that one of the many, many mistakes made by May has been not to have a foot stomping walk out at an earlier stage when there was more time to play with and the opportunity to make proper preparations for a no deal Brexit.

In reality the EU has a choice. They can either accept one of the several UK proposals on NI that are currently on the table or they can accept that the UK will be leaving with no deal and a far harder border between the UK and Eire than anything that we are proposing at the moment. It is simply not possible for May to give any more on this because it would not pass the Commons.

One point arising from PMQs yesterday is that May said that the UK pays its debts and that we will be paying the £39bn whether there is a deal or not. I found that...interesting, not because I disagree with the proposition but because so many of her party, particularly in the ERG, will not.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Well done, another Corbynite.

Lol. I’ll sign her up for your West Sussex Marxist meet on birth ;-)

I’ll knit her a little woolly Lenin hat and placard.

Alanbrooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

congrats. CR hope all goes well

could I just advise you may want to luxuriate in sleep now, you wont get much of it for the next 10 years

In my experience the real sleepless nights start just over 10 years in!

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Congratulations.

If it's a girl, May I suggest Theresa?

Many thanks. Yes, it is a girl!

Congratulations Woman on the train the other day seemed to have multiple friends that had 'one of each'... All said girls were much more difficult

I've got one of each. All three are just as difficult.

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Many congratulations!

Margaret Theresa Nadine Royale has a definite ring to it.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Congratulations.

If it's a girl, May I suggest Theresa?

Many thanks. Yes, it is a girl!

Congratulations Woman on the train the other day seemed to have multiple friends that had 'one of each'... All said girls were much more difficult

What's the accepted wisdom? If you have a boy you have one prick to worry about; if you have a girl you have every prick out there to worry about.

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

@Casino_Royale - Congratulations!

Thanks!

Just woke up to your wonderful news.

Many congratulations to you both

So much for you both to look forward to in 2019

All the very best

DavidL said:

Alanbrooke said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

congrats. CR hope all goes well

could I just advise you may want to luxuriate in sleep now, you wont get much of it for the next 10 years

In my experience the real sleepless nights start just over 10 years in!

You go through phases

First year constant feeding and changing
Second year sort of a break but no lie ins
Years 3-5 theyre mobile and crawl in to bed or start running water all over the place at 5 am
Years 6-10 - its quiet. too quiet, you get suspicious and want to see what theyre up to
Years 10+ teenage beckons and you have no chance of getting them out of bed in the morning but no chance of getting them in to it the night before
Year 18+ - they go to uni out of sight out of mind, except now the Mrs stays up all night worrying about them

Maybe old people sleep a lot because they are catching all that lost sleep back :-)

Pulpstar said:

Thought experiment:

If we have another vote, remain and then 2 years later opinion shifts once again decisively against the EU... Is there a push for yet another vote ?

Farage was calling for another vote after conceding on Brexit night....

As EU ultimately laugh at Britain at this summit, remember every sneer equates to British jobs lost in British industry, because the completely unnecessary no deal is a cut of investment into Britain, no deal is unnecessary, and every sneering comment about cherries is 40% Tariffs on our hard pressed farmers as they try to sell their cherries, sheep and other produce, every barked “its all your own fault you are mugs taken in by liars” is not just WTO tariffs on British Business but a lot of admin costs too passed onto other businesses and onto British households still struggling from the polices of the last labour government! that’s not Brexit pain that’s all unnecessary pain, absolutely unnecessarily inflicted on us by the EU! I’m telling as it is, as 27 heads swan to dinner laughing, full of themselves remember it’s the British pound they want to fall, our place in the world being sent down by their cynical refusal to negotiate properly, their snubbing of our good faith, the logical quid pro quo trade deal that has always been there, See them for what they are and what they are doing to us, not just us but our unborn children, an EU not responding to British Proposal in a respectful and professional manner, 27 heads, everyone one of them in the clouds, we know how they fudged and messed up their euro currency this monsters not as clever as it likes to think it is, from today we know it’s a monster devoid of any real feeling for real people in this world, that’s how we know it.

Before we simply blame our government like the slavishly opportunistic Labour party, “oh we’d conclude negotiations in next to no time, we’re so brilliant”: You cant even negotiate with you own party colleagues to sit next to you on front bench and share your half baked policies, McDonnhell you twat! lets remember May and her ministers always negotiated in good faith, fair to the voice of nearly 18 million patriotic Britain’s, our government honest about everyone’s need for a something for something accord, it was the self-indulgent intransigence of the EU monster that dragged everything to this point.

The EU is true architect of all the coming pain, not the Brexit vote. No deal was always unnecessary if the EU behaved like a grown up. How dare anyone suggest otherwise! How dare anyone march for a people’s vote after today! Have you no pride? Have you no respect for 17.4 million of your brothers and sisters who saw what this 27 headed monster has become?

Its the bottom line today thats the killer, the agnostic and lofty EU should care for the culture and fears of the Ulster Unionists, not more but certainly no less than every other person and grouping in its Empire. It’s Because Europe will never be fashioned with flesh of God hating European citizens, but by the blood of her diverse people - otherwise it will always be a fake and crumbling Empire that cannot see this.

Jonathan said:

Are the rumours true that the gestation period for Casino’s baby is to be extended for 12 months?

Expressed with elephantine tact...

I'll get my coat. Have a good morning.

Congrats CR!

I was wondering who Alastair would put forward for the Labour side. Yvette is a non-starter I'm afraid, even if many Labour MPs were tempted to vote for her how would they get her into office over the head of the Kali Ma hate squad? The Labour view is and will be that only a General Election is in the national interest as any Tory leader like Yvette Cooper is evil.

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Many congratulations!

Margaret Theresa Nadine Royale has a definite ring to it.

Cheers. Margaret has been mooted actually!

Believe it or not, my wife likes it.

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Many congratulations!

Margaret Theresa Nadine Royale has a definite ring to it.

Cheers. Margaret has been mooted actually!

Believe it or not, my wife likes it.

Come the due date the chant “Maggie out!” will be handy.

Pulpstar said:

Thought experiment:

If we have another vote, remain and then 2 years later opinion shifts once again decisively against the EU... Is there a push for yet another vote ?

Nope, votes to Remain are binding.

DavidL said:

On topic there was always going to be a crunch point in the discussions with the EU. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that one of the many, many mistakes made by May has been not to have a foot stomping walk out at an earlier stage when there was more time to play with and the opportunity to make proper preparations for a no deal Brexit.

In reality the EU has a choice. They can either accept one of the several UK proposals on NI that are currently on the table or they can accept that the UK will be leaving with no deal and a far harder border between the UK and Eire than anything that we are proposing at the moment. It is simply not possible for May to give any more on this because it would not pass the Commons.

One point arising from PMQs yesterday is that May said that the UK pays its debts and that we will be paying the £39bn whether there is a deal or not. I found that...interesting, not because I disagree with the proposition but because so many of her party, particularly in the ERG, will not.

One point that’s been barely commented upon (except by Guido, funnily enough) is that an extra year’s transition not only buys more time for the trade deal but also gifts the EU an extra £10bn.

I thus think it’s a UK concession to them to buy something else, like some movement on NI or flexibility on treating the UK more cohesively more broadly.

On final thing on asylum seekers in Germay, have a look at Figure 5 from the piece below:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/padr.12042

That piece says "Over two thirds (69.2 percent) of asylum applicants in Germany from the principal countries of origin in 2015 are male."

I suppose one could argue that they still got 50,000 women of child baring age plus around 60,000 girls, but the price was a lot more men. Perhaps @rcs1000 thinks German women are just waiting to be swept off their feet by a young man from the Middle East.

Huge congrats to Mr and Mrs @Casino_Royale!

Jonathan said:

Top tip to CR. Having gone in and conceived a union, voting to take back control and demanding your DNA back on a bus, tends to go down badly with the wife. You will end up with no deal.

Your “Maggie out!” gag was better ;-)

Dura_Ace said:

LordOfReason said:

fair to the voice of nearly 18 million patriotic Britain’s,

After BMI, the inability to use an apostrophe correctly is the most statistically reliable predictor of leave proclivities.

Is that BMI one actually a fact? I can well believe it given the age distribution of leavers versus remainers, but have the measurements been done?

So Tezza is going to offer "my (ie the EU's) deal or no deal".

What a master strategist.

Cos "her" deal as it relates to NI will send the Brexiters absolutely mental.

archer101au said:

DavidL said:

On topic there was always going to be a crunch point in the discussions with the EU. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that one of the many, many mistakes made by May has been not to have a foot stomping walk out at an earlier stage when there was more time to play with and the opportunity to make proper preparations for a no deal Brexit.

In reality the EU has a choice. They can either accept one of the several UK proposals on NI that are currently on the table or they can accept that the UK will be leaving with no deal and a far harder border between the UK and Eire than anything that we are proposing at the moment. It is simply not possible for May to give any more on this because it would not pass the Commons.

One point arising from PMQs yesterday is that May said that the UK pays its debts and that we will be paying the £39bn whether there is a deal or not. I found that...interesting, not because I disagree with the proposition but because so many of her party, particularly in the ERG, will not.

Legally, the UK has no liability to the EU. Hammond is wrong and rather than relying on the Government's normal process for legal advice he seems to have got some from the Treasury solicitors, which I think we all know are about as objective as HYUFD.

There are two legal issues - there is no primary liability; and even if there was, there is no jurisdiction in which this can be enforced.

Apart from everything else, the public were hugely anti paying the EU even in the event of a deal. If the Tories try to pay them for no deal, they are seriously screwed. It can't be defended as paying our obligations because there are great legal minds who have decided this is not true. It says everything about May and Hammond that they are even talking about this.

So we go rogue.

Your idealist logic is faultless; your understanding of politics less so.

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

On topic there was always going to be a crunch point in the discussions with the EU. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that one of the many, many mistakes made by May has been not to have a foot stomping walk out at an earlier stage when there was more time to play with and the opportunity to make proper preparations for a no deal Brexit.

In reality the EU has a choice. They can either accept one of the several UK proposals on NI that are currently on the table or they can accept that the UK will be leaving with no deal and a far harder border between the UK and Eire than anything that we are proposing at the moment. It is simply not possible for May to give any more on this because it would not pass the Commons.

One point arising from PMQs yesterday is that May said that the UK pays its debts and that we will be paying the £39bn whether there is a deal or not. I found that...interesting, not because I disagree with the proposition but because so many of her party, particularly in the ERG, will not.

One point that’s been barely commented upon (except by Guido, funnily enough) is that an extra year’s transition not only buys more time for the trade deal but also gifts the EU an extra £10bn.

I thus think it’s a UK concession to them to buy something else, like some movement on NI or flexibility on treating the UK more cohesively more broadly.

My concern is that the current level of uncertainty is damaging. Quite how damaging is hard to say. There has been a fall off in investment across western Europe, for example, it's not just us. Nevertheless I think it will be beneficial to have a clear set of rules within which businesses can operate as soon as possible. If the transition period is extended simply because we cannot agree what those rules should be and have no clear pathway to determining them then I do not think an extension is to our advantage, quite the reverse.

But presumably a longer transition would be less uncertain than no transition at all (and no settlement on lorries crossing the Chanel, planes flying, medicines being traded etc). It seems to me the current uncertainty is about no deal rather than what comes after a WA, and most business would have as long a transition as was needed to find a workable deal thereafter.

YellowSubmarine said:

Finally it's clear this final stage of the Brexit negotiations are faux drama. 90% of the Deal is done. Rhere are several options on Ireland and it's clear May/Robbins woukd sign up to several of them. And we still have loads of time to ratify a deal.

This is now purely about the nternal internal politics of the Tory Party. There will be a deal as we have no choice. It's going to be a dreadful deal because we have no choice. The deal will enrage most Remainers because it's Brexit and not a Unicorn. The deal will enrage most Brexiters it's not a Unicorn and thus not Brexit. The deal will be chronically unpopular because their is too little centre ground on this topic and it's too late to build one. Which Tory with a future will want to vote for May's deal ? Which Labour MP with a future will want to rescue May ?

May needs a Cabinet and a Commons majority of grey beards who are prepared to save the ship because they are innthe Autumn/Winter of their careers. The added problem is such figures tend to be exactly the sorts of folk who'll have the dimest view of Brexit innthe first place.

My instinct is the narrative has spent too much time on whether a deal will be done. It suggests doing a deal will bring closure. We've under analysed that the next Stage is that deal will be chronically unpopular.

In actual fact the polling is clear the median voter would rather May and BINO Brexit than either Corbyn or the ERG and No Deal

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.

Congrats on Casino Royale Jnr

archer101au said:

TOPPING said:

So Tezza is going to offer "my (ie the EU's) deal or no deal".

What a master strategist.

Cos "her" deal as it relates to NI will send the Brexiters absolutely mental.

It will send the whole Tory party mental. She ruled out agreeing to the permanent backstop. It was not the Brexiteers who insisted on this - it was everyone.

She can't just agree to it now on the basis that all things considered in her view it probably is pretty unlikely that it would ever be used.

And yet here we are.

Sounds like there will only be two options. But that's fine because all the letters will be in by the end of the week and she'll be gone, replaced by JRM/Boris/Mad Nad.

Right?

Harris_Tweed said:

DavidL said:

My concern is that the current level of uncertainty is damaging. Quite how damaging is hard to say. There has been a fall off in investment across western Europe, for example, it's not just us. Nevertheless I think it will be beneficial to have a clear set of rules within which businesses can operate as soon as possible. If the transition period is extended simply because we cannot agree what those rules should be and have no clear pathway to determining them then I do not think an extension is to our advantage, quite the reverse.

But presumably a longer transition would be less uncertain than no transition at all (and no settlement on lorries crossing the Chanel, planes flying, medicines being traded etc). It seems to me the current uncertainty is about no deal rather than what comes after a WA, and most business would have as long a transition as was needed to find a workable deal thereafter.

Most businesses would rather an everlasting transition than no deal

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. rkrkrk, the prism of EU fundamentalism is a strange one.

But who is asking for the transition to be extended?
The UK.

That the EU nations think there is an overall benefit to being in the EU is hardly surprising.

Labour will scrap the Academies system for schools brought in by Blair and extended by Cameron if Corbyn becomes PM Shadow Education Secretary Angela Rayner has announced

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-45877334

HYUFD said:

YellowSubmarine said:

Finally it's clear this final stage of the Brexit negotiations are faux drama. 90% of the Deal is done. Rhere are several options on Ireland and it's clear May/Robbins woukd sign up to several of them. And we still have loads of time to ratify a deal.

This is now purely about the nternal internal politics of the Tory Party. There will be a deal as we have no choice. It's going to be a dreadful deal because we have no choice. The deal will enrage most Remainers because it's Brexit and not a Unicorn. The deal will enrage most Brexiters it's not a Unicorn and thus not Brexit. The deal will be chronically unpopular because their is too little centre ground on this topic and it's too late to build one. Which Tory with a future will want to vote for May's deal ? Which Labour MP with a future will want to rescue May ?

May needs a Cabinet and a Commons majority of grey beards who are prepared to save the ship because they are innthe Autumn/Winter of their careers. The added problem is such figures tend to be exactly the sorts of folk who'll have the dimest view of Brexit innthe first place.

My instinct is the narrative has spent too much time on whether a deal will be done. It suggests doing a deal will bring closure. We've under analysed that the next Stage is that deal will be chronically unpopular.

In actual fact the polling is clear the median voter would rather May and BINO Brexit than either Corbyn or the ERG and No Deal

The more I think about it the more Cameron's concessions were what people wanted. The problem was he then offered a referendum that was blanket in / out when it should have been 3 options as we were / Cameron's slightly removed variation / out.

If the referendum had done that we wouldn't be in this mess...

Congratulations Casino, good job making sure the child is born just in time to be an EU citizen

Mr. Recidivist, I'd be friendly too, if someone offered me £10bn in exchange for a year of cogitation.

Dura_Ace said:

LordOfReason said:

fair to the voice of nearly 18 million patriotic Britain’s,

After BMI, the inability to use an apostrophe correctly is the most statistically reliable predictor of leave proclivities.

My BMI has gone down considerably since I accepted a second referendum which included a remain option might be necessary, so you may be on to something.