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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » However improbable. Looking at the next Prime Minister market

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  • Roger said:

    To have another referendum before we have even left because the remain voting PM who replaced him cant cut a deal would be ridiculous in the extreme, and if it were happening anywhere but here, we would be rolling our eyes at the tin pot "democracy".

    Some people's real objection to a second referendum is that they'll lose the ability to sneer at Irish democracy.
    If there were a second referendum, the side that didn't promise to end FoM would lose. Its all the whole thing has ever been about
    I heard on radio 4 at about 3am this morning that Remaining was no longer an option. If we tried to back track it wouldn't be on the preferential terms we were on before and the rebate would no longer be on offer.
    I don't think there have been any mutterings at all in that direction from anyone relevant, and lots in the opposite direction. If the British said actually never mind, everybody would breathe an exasperated sign of relief and nobody would be playing silly buggers.

    However, this window closes on exit day, and there's no sign the British government wants to go through it.
    I not sure that everyone would agree but I would be happy for the whole thing to go away
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    It does if he moves there :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited October 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    It was found on a farm with domestic tests, right?

    So the backstop is basically ‘we don’t trust you’, right?

    Whilst this incident is certainly unwelcome, a continuation of existing checks and balances in the Irish sea should solve this issue. Noone is proposing all existing checks stop in the Irish sea, not even the DUP.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Roger said:

    To have another referendum before we have even left because the remain voting PM who replaced him cant cut a deal would be ridiculous in the extreme, and if it were happening anywhere but here, we would be rolling our eyes at the tin pot "democracy".

    Some people's real objection to a second referendum is that they'll lose the ability to sneer at Irish democracy.
    If there were a second referendum, the side that didn't promise to end FoM would lose. Its all the whole thing has ever been about
    I heard on radio 4 at about 3am this morning that Remaining was no longer an option. If we tried to back track it wouldn't be on the preferential terms we were on before and the rebate would no longer be on offer.
    I don't think there have been any mutterings at all in that direction from anyone relevant, and lots in the opposite direction. If the British said actually never mind, everybody would breathe an exasperated sign of relief and nobody would be playing silly buggers.

    However, this window closes on exit day, and there's no sign the British government wants to go through it.
    I not sure that everyone would agree but I would be happy for the whole thing to go away
    Parliament should take back control, there must be a majority for SOMETHING amongst MPs. Give them a free vote!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    tlg86 said:

    Just watched Robert's latest video. I disagree with him about the Merkel's open door policy. If she was worried about demographics she'd have opened the door to all EU members when she became Chancellor in 2005.

    FPT - I am pleased to announce my wife and I are doing our bit about the UK's demographics with our first due in early February next year.

    Far more exciting and terrifying than Brexit in equal measure, and far more important.
    That's fabulous - congratulations, and many happy years ahead.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:
    It was found on a farm with domestic tests, right?

    So the backstop is basically ‘we don’t trust you’, right?

    Whilst this incident is certainly unwelcome, a continuation of existing checks and balances in the Irish sea should solve this issue. Noone is proposing all existing checks stop in the Irish sea, not even the DUP.
    Indeed. So despite Remainer screaming, nothing needs to change.

    Talk about politicising a tragedy.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    But they, or many of them, are the result of ‘race memories’. Those are hard to remove; look at the attitude to the French on here, or the Germans among some football fans.
    OK, some of it’s ‘humorous’ but they are the result of conditioning.
    Yes, that's true. Encountering a bunch of hooray henrys triggered her race memories. It doesn't occur to her that most English people find such behaviour as obnoxious as she does.
    I suspect she wasn’t responsible for the headline, but re-read the paragraph, near the end, starting ‘I’ve lived in London for three years'
  • tpfkar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    It does if he moves there :)
    We went to Norway for our honeymoon and have been back several times on cruise ships as that is the best way of seeing the Country or even taking the Hurtigruten service all the way to the Arctic
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    Sorry perhaps I'm too subtle for the internet - my main point is the 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit solutions all still have the same issue.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Congratulations to @Casino_Royale!
  • TGOHF said:

    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    TM can be ditched but it would require the cabinet to seek her resignation.

    An election then follows for her successor that will take up to Christmas

    Love the 'something' but maybe a clear definition would help

    The 39 billion includes approx 30 billion of legal commitments that if we break would make us an International outcast

    Forget TM, let us have a coherent plan that is better. I have not heard it yet

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    Perhaps it is time to reinstate a hard border then if that's their attitude.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    The boss is Brussels, as would be demonstrated in the event of a no deal. We have a pre-existing treaty with Ireland, but they’ve surrendered that competency to Brussels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Higgins with a 54% lead in the Irish Presidential poll.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TGOHF said:


    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    Apparently the govt has legal advice almost all of that would be due regardless. Seems we actually got rather a good deal then, given the 39bn includes 13/14bn for the transition.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Pulpstar said:

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    Perhaps it is time to reinstate a hard border then if that's their attitude.
    Part of the ‘bad treatment’ was ‘settling’ a whole load of Brits, especially, but not exclusively, Scots to provide an anti-Irish bloc in the North.
    Now look what’s happened!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:


    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    Apparently the govt has legal advice almost all of that would be due regardless. Seems we actually got rather a good deal then, given the 39bn includes 13/14bn for the transition.
    ...because the transition falls within the current budget spending round that we’ve already committed to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    It always surprises me that folk who seem to me deeply attached to an almost completely historical memory of Britain's greatness seem unaware that there other kinds of historical memory.
    It doesn't alter the fact that her grievances are minor ones.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    They didn't take that attitude when they wanted us to bail out their banking system.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    TGOHF said:

    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    TM can be ditched but it would require the cabinet to seek her resignation.

    An election then follows for her successor that will take up to Christmas

    Love the 'something' but maybe a clear definition would help

    The 39 billion includes approx 30 billion of legal commitments that if we break would make us an International outcast

    Forget TM, let us have a coherent plan that is better. I have not heard it yet

    Normal "Leave" approach.... "Something" is all the planning required.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Sean_F said:

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    They didn't take that attitude when they wanted us to bail out their banking system.
    Or when they need the RAF for protecting their airspace...
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    It's ancient history - ever since Gladstone we've been grovelling to the southern Irish to no avail. There's no good reason for us to accept a bad deal just to appease them further.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Sean_F said:

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    They didn't take that attitude when they wanted us to bail out their banking system.
    Have we ever had back the UK tax payers money sent over to Ireland to keep then solvent?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited October 2018
    Okay, serious question: why haven't the Tories VONCed May yet?

    What do they think she still has to give?

    Whatever happens next, May cannot and should not be part of it. One way or another the men in gray suits (or white coats) need to escort her to a place where she can do no further harm.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    It always surprises me that folk who seem to me deeply attached to an almost completely historical memory of Britain's greatness seem unaware that there other kinds of historical memory.
    It doesn't alter the fact that her grievances are minor ones.
    Appointing Karen Bradley as Sec. of State for N. Ireland when she didn’t appear realise why, for example, a Sinn Fein voter would never vote DUP or vice versa doesn’t strike me as particularly sensitive. It also suggests that Ms Bradley’s education wasn’t as ‘comprehensive; as it might have been.
  • Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    It always surprises me that folk who seem to me deeply attached to an almost completely historical memory of Britain's greatness seem unaware that there other kinds of historical memory.
    It doesn't alter the fact that her grievances are minor ones.
    On a forum where folk take an EU pol mocking May's dancing, her not being given her dinner or 'Little Englander' as mortal insults, I think I'd like some outside arbitration on the meaning of minor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Andrew said:

    TGOHF said:


    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    Apparently the govt has legal advice almost all of that would be due regardless. Seems we actually got rather a good deal then, given the 39bn includes 13/14bn for the transition.
    The AG seems the man to advise on whether that is the case. Let him publish what is "obligation", what falls away when the Treaty falls away.
  • Okay, serious question: why haven't the Tories VONCed May yet?

    What do they think she still has to give?

    Whatever happens next, May cannot and should not be part of it. One way or another the men in gray suits (or white coats) need to escort her to a place where she can do no further harm.

    The fear must be that if they ditch Theresa they'll get Boris, and he'll go all mega-hard Brexit just for a jolly jape, obliterate the economy and keep them out of power for ever.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    It always surprises me that folk who seem to me deeply attached to an almost completely historical memory of Britain's greatness seem unaware that there other kinds of historical memory.
    It doesn't alter the fact that her grievances are minor ones.
    Appointing Karen Bradley as Sec. of State for N. Ireland when she didn’t appear realise why, for example, a Sinn Fein voter would never vote DUP or vice versa doesn’t strike me as particularly sensitive. It also suggests that Ms Bradley’s education wasn’t as ‘comprehensive; as it might have been.
    I was somewhat surprised by that.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914

    Okay, serious question: why haven't the Tories VONCed May yet?

    What do they think she still has to give?

    Whatever happens next, May cannot and should not be part of it. One way or another the men in gray suits (or white coats) need to escort her to a place where she can do no further harm.

    Maybe nobody wants the impossible job?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,677
    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    To have another referendum before we have even left because the remain voting PM who replaced him cant cut a deal would be ridiculous in the extreme, and if it were happening anywhere but here, we would be rolling our eyes at the tin pot "democracy".

    Some people's real objection to a second referendum is that they'll lose the ability to sneer at Irish democracy.
    If there were a second referendum, the side that didn't promise to end FoM would lose. Its all the whole thing has ever been about
    Not if it was No Deal as the alternative, Remain wins 55% to 45% with Yougov on that basis.

    Eastern European migrants to the UK have fallen since the Leave vote anyway and we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 within the EU had Blair chosen to do so
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    I’ve never bullied Ireland as a nation, or any of its people. Have you?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.

    You just need to believe harder. Stop talking Brexit down!!!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Jonathan said:

    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.

    It doesn't.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited October 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    TM can be ditched but it would require the cabinet to seek her resignation.

    An election then follows for her successor that will take up to Christmas

    Love the 'something' but maybe a clear definition would help

    The 39 billion includes approx 30 billion of legal commitments that if we break would make us an International outcast

    Forget TM, let us have a coherent plan that is better. I have not heard it yet

    Only 120 Tory MPs out of over 300 even voted Leave let alone back No Deal.

    May is staying, after all she got over 50% even in the first round of the 2016 Tory leadership contest and over 60% of Tory MPs voted for May over the ERG and Boris backed Leadsom and Gove in the second round
  • Jonathan said:

    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.

    It won't, and neither will it fix the lack of a majority.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    I’ve never bullied Ireland as a nation, or any of its people. Have you?
    Never made an Irish joke to an Irish person you didn’t know well?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Jonathan said:

    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.

    It doesn't.
    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    Before we can even allow the slightest possibility of beginning to think about how we get out of this mess to cross our minds, the architect of this insanity has to go.

    Getting rid of May is the first step to ANY solution.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I think most MPs would choose a general election now, rather than a grand coalition (the fear being of the election after a grand coalition that split both parties), but if another general election didn't resolve the deadlock then they might not have any choice.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Scott_P said:

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
    And she knows that if she goes one of them might succeed her. If only the Tories would split. But they won’t.
  • HYUFD said:

    To have another referendum before we have even left because the remain voting PM who replaced him cant cut a deal would be ridiculous in the extreme, and if it were happening anywhere but here, we would be rolling our eyes at the tin pot "democracy".

    Some people's real objection to a second referendum is that they'll lose the ability to sneer at Irish democracy.
    If there were a second referendum, the side that didn't promise to end FoM would lose. Its all the whole thing has ever been about
    Not if it was No Deal as the alternative, Remain wins 55% to 45% with Yougov on that basis.

    Eastern European migrants to the UK have fallen since the Leave vote anyway and we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 within the EU had Blair chosen to do so
    The leave side would bang on and on and on about immigration controls, and the Remain side would have no answer. "Someone who is campaigning for us could have done something about it 14 years ago but didn't" isn't the new "Let's give £350m to the NHS"
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited October 2018
    I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    The latter.

    She also annoyed Remainers yesterday over the ‘meaningfull vote’
  • HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    TM can be ditched but it would require the cabinet to seek her resignation.

    An election then follows for her successor that will take up to Christmas

    Love the 'something' but maybe a clear definition would help

    The 39 billion includes approx 30 billion of legal commitments that if we break would make us an International outcast

    Forget TM, let us have a coherent plan that is better. I have not heard it yet

    Only 120 Tory MPs out of over 300 even voted Leave let alone back No Deal.

    May is staying, after all she got over 50% even in the first round of the 2016 Tory leadership contest and over 60% of Tory MPs voted for May over the ERG and Boris backed Leadsom and Gove in the second round
    This.

    Aside from the fact that no one else wants the job until after Brexit and no one else could possibly bridge the seemingly impossible divide that Mrs May is (just) still managing to do - it's all about the numbers.

    The ERG are possibly 60. Even if they could get DD into No10, they would then realise they are 60 vs the rest of the Commons and have little influence. They have more muscle as 60 threatening to wreck TM. Ditto the Tory remainers.

    Whilst that remains the case, TM will stay.
  • I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-take-tentative-steps-toward-a-backstop-irish-border-compromise-theresa-may/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2018

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    How Brexit has Driven Everyone Mad, Volume 10. How a Lefty Ends up on the Side of Tax-Avoiding Multinationals.


    It is nice for a Londoner to acknowledge how badly the Celtic nations have been treated. And it is nice that you heroically defend Ireland's role in the EU.

    But, of course it is a pity that one of Ireland's main contributions to the EU is to allow a whole range of multi-nationals to pay derisory amounts of tax -- derisory compared to the average Irish person -- and to defraud the exchequers of other European nations.

    Of course, the Irish are not the only ones doing it. Junker -- the very embodiment of the EU -- did it for Luxembourg. (And I am well aware that the UK has dirty hands in the Carribean).

    Multinationals pay less tax than they did a decade ago. Ireland plays a key role in the avoidance of tax by large American multinationals.


  • Does Alan Sugar's treatment of the apprentices in the Board Room constitute bullying?

    Is he old school and not sensitive yto the current snowflake generation?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    People who read things might end up becoming experts and we've had enough of experts.
  • Okay, serious question: why haven't the Tories VONCed May yet?

    What do they think she still has to give?

    Whatever happens next, May cannot and should not be part of it. One way or another the men in gray suits (or white coats) need to escort her to a place where she can do no further harm.

    The divides in the party make it that a vnoc on TM would see TM win and be there for another year.

    Bill Cash, an ardent Brexiteer, admits this morning that in a vnoc she would win and that is why she remains PM

    There is no one that can unify the party.

    I would have a go but I haven't been invited !!!!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited October 2018
    Scott_P said:

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
    Agreed. They were in the cabinet from the start on Brexit and comprehensively failed and now say they didn't read the backstop even though at the time they fully endorsed it

    I think the bit about them not reading the backstop demonstrates why they are synthetic and do not do detail
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    There is no one that can unify the party.

    Or the HoC.

    Or the Country.

    Brexit (as sold in the referendum) is undeliverable.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-take-tentative-steps-toward-a-backstop-irish-border-compromise-theresa-may/
    Thanks, but this isn't about the transition period extension?
  • JohnRussellJohnRussell Posts: 297
    edited October 2018

    Scott_P said:

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
    Agreed. They were in the cabinet from the start on Brexit and comprehensively failed and now say they didn't read the backstop even though at the time they fully endorsed it

    I think the bit about them not reading the backstop demonstrates why they are synthetic and do not do detail
    "They were in the cabinet from the start on Brexit "

    ...apart from Gove and JRM
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    How Brexit has Driven Everyone Mad, Volume 10. How a Lefty Ends up on the Side of Tax-Avoiding Multinationals.


    It is nice for a Londoner to acknowledge how badly the Celtic nations have been treated. And it is nice that you heroically defend Ireland's role in the EU.

    But, of course it is a pity that one of Ireland's main contributions to the EU is to allow a whole range of multi-nationals to pay derisory amounts of tax -- derisory compared to the average Irish person -- and to defraud the exchequers of other European nations.

    Of course, the Irish are not the only ones doing it. Junker -- the very embodiment of the EU -- did it for Luxembourg. (And I am well aware that the UK has dirty hands in the Carribean).

    Multinationals pay less tax than they did a decade ago. Ireland plays a key role in the avoidance of tax by large American multinationals.


    And how will Brexit help to change that?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    Of course this also goes for May, who now describes the backstop she signed up to as unacceptable
  • Scott_P said:

    There is no one that can unify the party.

    Or the HoC.

    Or the Country.

    Brexit (as sold in the referendum) is undeliverable.
    ...and overturning the result will?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Norm said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    It makes one despair. And ERG want to replace TM with David Davis who achieved nothing when he had the Brexit job

    Time to move to Norway as the only option at present and then take it from there
    Norway doesn't solve the border issues.
    Bollocks to that. What have the Irish ever done for us apart from being a perpetual boil on our bottoms?
    The UK bullied Ireland and generally treated it appallingly for centuries. Now the boot is on the other foot, it's hardly surprising that the Irish are taking the opportunity to show the UK who is the boss in the new Brexit order, even at some cost to themselves.
    How Brexit has Driven Everyone Mad, Volume 10. How a Lefty Ends up on the Side of Tax-Avoiding Multinationals.


    It is nice for a Londoner to acknowledge how badly the Celtic nations have been treated. And it is nice that you heroically defend Ireland's role in the EU.

    But, of course it is a pity that one of Ireland's main contributions to the EU is to allow a whole range of multi-nationals to pay derisory amounts of tax -- derisory compared to the average Irish person -- and to defraud the exchequers of other European nations.

    Of course, the Irish are not the only ones doing it. Junker -- the very embodiment of the EU -- did it for Luxembourg. (And I am well aware that the UK has dirty hands in the Carribean).

    Multinationals pay less tax than they did a decade ago. Ireland plays a key role in the avoidance of tax by large American multinationals.


    And how will Brexit help to change that?
    sales tax for a start off and we change legislation on EU tax opt outs
  • Jonathan said:

    Don't understand how a Tory leadership election will fix Brexit.

    It doesn't.
    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    Before we can even allow the slightest possibility of beginning to think about how we get out of this mess to cross our minds, the architect of this insanity has to go.

    Getting rid of May is the first step to ANY solution.
    O that it was so easy. Shoot TM if you like but it will not solve the insoluble
  • I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-take-tentative-steps-toward-a-backstop-irish-border-compromise-theresa-may/
    Thanks, but this isn't about the transition period extension?
    Yes - but the extension gives enough time to conclude a FTA deal with customs arrangements to avoid a hard border, such that the backstop becomes unnecessary and is never triggered.

    Or so the theory goes.
  • Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    Of course this also goes for May, who now describes the backstop she signed up to as unacceptable
    No she doesn't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Why can’t we build Jerusalem together on this green and pleasant land without being asked to feel guilty for acts commited by people from this island many years ago? The partition of Ireland is not my fault and it is not your fault.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    ...and overturning the result will?

    Who said anything about overturning the result?

    We do however have to come to terms with the fact the original campaign promised a unicorn.

    It would not be undemocratic to ask the people if they actually want the lame donkey that is realistically available, or not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Lance the boils.

    Ditch May.

    Scratch the current deal on the table.

    Gives 3-4 months for something to be put in place.

    Use the £39Bn for tax cuts to keep the Uk competitive.

    TM can be ditched but it would require the cabinet to seek her resignation.

    An election then follows for her successor that will take up to Christmas

    Love the 'something' but maybe a clear definition would help

    The 39 billion includes approx 30 billion of legal commitments that if we break would make us an International outcast

    Forget TM, let us have a coherent plan that is better. I have not heard it yet

    Only 120 Tory MPs out of over 300 even voted Leave let alone back No Deal.

    May is staying, after all she got over 50% even in the first round of the 2016 Tory leadership contest and over 60% of Tory MPs voted for May over the ERG and Boris backed Leadsom and Gove in the second round
    This.

    Aside from the fact that no one else wants the job until after Brexit and no one else could possibly bridge the seemingly impossible divide that Mrs May is (just) still managing to do - it's all about the numbers.

    The ERG are possibly 60. Even if they could get DD into No10, they would then realise they are 60 vs the rest of the Commons and have little influence. They have more muscle as 60 threatening to wreck TM. Ditto the Tory remainers.

    Whilst that remains the case, TM will stay.
    Yes, TINO, there is no alternative
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    How Brexit has Driven Everyone Mad, Volume 10. How a Lefty Ends up on the Side of Tax-Avoiding Multinationals.


    It is nice for a Londoner to acknowledge how badly the Celtic nations have been treated. And it is nice that you heroically defend Ireland's role in the EU.

    But, of course it is a pity that one of Ireland's main contributions to the EU is to allow a whole range of multi-nationals to pay derisory amounts of tax -- derisory compared to the average Irish person -- and to defraud the exchequers of other European nations.

    Of course, the Irish are not the only ones doing it. Junker -- the very embodiment of the EU -- did it for Luxembourg. (And I am well aware that the UK has dirty hands in the Carribean).

    Multinationals pay less tax than they did a decade ago. Ireland plays a key role in the avoidance of tax by large American multinationals.


    And how will Brexit help to change that?
    What has the EU done?

    It is reasonable to point out that the EU has enabled massive amounts of tax avoidance (as personified by its figure head).

    In fact, the EU has not punished, but rewarded, the Junkers of this world who successfully swooned for Amazon.

    Given the incredibly low threshold set by the EU, it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that a Brexit-ed Uk under a left-wing leader might be able to do something better on tax avoidance by big multinationals.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    Of course this also goes for May, who now describes the backstop she signed up to as unacceptable
    No she doesn't.
    Well, what do you think she signed up to in December exactly?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited October 2018

    HYUFD said:

    To have another referendum before we have even left because the remain voting PM who replaced him cant cut a deal would be ridiculous in the extreme, and if it were happening anywhere but here, we would be rolling our eyes at the tin pot "democracy".

    Some people's real objection to a second referendum is that they'll lose the ability to sneer at Irish democracy.
    If there were a second referendum, the side that didn't promise to end FoM would lose. Its all the whole thing has ever been about
    Not if it was No Deal as the alternative, Remain wins 55% to 45% with Yougov on that basis.

    Eastern European migrants to the UK have fallen since the Leave vote anyway and we could have had transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 within the EU had Blair chosen to do so
    The leave side would bang on and on and on about immigration controls, and the Remain side would have no answer. "Someone who is campaigning for us could have done something about it 14 years ago but didn't" isn't the new "Let's give £350m to the NHS"
    That might get Leave to 45%, it would not get them to over 50% as enough soft Brexiteer 2016 Leave voters would switch to Remain if No Deal, Crash Out Brexit was the alternative.

    As I said Eastern European migration has already fallen since the Leave vote anyway
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-take-tentative-steps-toward-a-backstop-irish-border-compromise-theresa-may/
    Thanks, but this isn't about the transition period extension?
    Yes - but the extension gives enough time to conclude a FTA deal with customs arrangements to avoid a hard border, such that the backstop becomes unnecessary and is never triggered.

    Or so the theory goes.
    But that's either requires the EU to trust us to get the FTA done, and therefore not insist on a backstop beforehand, or for us to trust the EU to get the FTA done, and therefore accept a backstop believing it'll never be triggered. Wasn't the problem always that neither side was willing to put in that trust?
  • Scott_P said:

    There is no one that can unify the party.

    Or the HoC.

    Or the Country.

    Brexit (as sold in the referendum) is undeliverable.
    Indeed but someday someone or something will
  • I made the mistake of being distracted from politics yesterday, now I have no idea what's going on. Could somebody explain: is the extra transition period time somehow supposed to help with the border issue? If so, how? If not, why did May add another thing for Leavers to get pissed off about?

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-eu-take-tentative-steps-toward-a-backstop-irish-border-compromise-theresa-may/
    Thanks, but this isn't about the transition period extension?
    Yes - but the extension gives enough time to conclude a FTA deal with customs arrangements to avoid a hard border, such that the backstop becomes unnecessary and is never triggered.

    Or so the theory goes.
    But that's either requires the EU to trust us to get the FTA done, and therefore not insist on a backstop beforehand, or for us to trust the EU to get the FTA done, and therefore accept a backstop believing it'll never be triggered. Wasn't the problem always that neither side was willing to put in that trust?
    Which is where the UK-wide customs arrangement referenced in that article kicks in. I think.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Mortimer said:



    Or when they need the RAF for protecting their airspace...

    Not this shit again. The RAF do not police Irish airspace. They might be asked to help in the unlikely event of a 911 on the Liffey event but outside that rather exotic scenario UK mil traffic is barred from Irish airspace.

    The Aéronavale have three squadrons of Rafale M at Finistère who would also be delighted to shoot anything that moves should the need arise.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited October 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    *scenes*

    'I Didn’t Hate the English — Until Now'

    https://tinyurl.com/ybogo33a

    I'd shrink from the word hate, but then I haven't had her or the wider Irish experiences. Can't disagree with much of what she writes.

    Her grievances seem very small ones.
    It always surprises me that folk who seem to me deeply attached to an almost completely historical memory of Britain's greatness seem unaware that there other kinds of historical memory.
    It doesn't alter the fact that her grievances are minor ones.
    On a forum where folk take an EU pol mocking May's dancing, her not being given her dinner or 'Little Englander' as mortal insults, I think I'd like some outside arbitration on the meaning of minor.
    Her perceptions are interesting and people do indeed have very different historical memories which others ought to be sensitive to.

    She might therefore ask herself the question whether it would make sense to keep NI within the EU's regulatory/legislative orbit without the ability to influence the laws affecting it without getting its express consent and whether or not this might create new grievances on the part of the Northern Irish (and indeed the English) against the Irish. If she wants her grievances taken account of then she ought to be mindful not to create new ones. The once oppressed can, after all, become the bully.

    Ireland, understandably, does not want anything to change. But the fact is that something has changed. Britain has voted to leave. And Ireland needs to accommodate itself to that new reality. Forcing - without consent - a sort of partial break up of its near neighbour for its own convenience - well, it shouldn't take a genius or an Irishwoman to know why that's not sensible in either the short or the long-term.
  • Scott_P said:

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
    Agreed. They were in the cabinet from the start on Brexit and comprehensively failed and now say they didn't read the backstop even though at the time they fully endorsed it

    I think the bit about them not reading the backstop demonstrates why they are synthetic and do not do detail
    "They were in the cabinet from the start on Brexit "

    ...apart from Gove and JRM
    Yes - you are right, my mistake, sorry
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Sir Michael Caine still backs Brexit even if it makes him poorer

    https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1052827551171665921
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Scott_P said:

    I suppose one benefit of an extended transition is that the need to keep Bercow on falls away......
  • It's a complete impasse and Theresa has nowhere to go. Time to anoint Boris as PM. He will be Brexit's kill or cure.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    May is such a hilariously terrible negotiator. All May has done has taught Barnier is that she will always crumble. You only need to tut disapprovingly and not answer her calls and she's practically begging you to cross her red lines.
  • It's crazy that the backstop is in the WA. It needs a fudge to move it to the future relationship agreement; with a temporary customs arrangement in the meantime. Future deal agreement needs to be dependent upon a border solution being agreed; if it isn't agreed then the temporary customs arrangement is triggered with the security of a (never to be triggered) backstop.

    A fudge everyone except the ERG should be able to sign up to.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2018

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    Of course this also goes for May, who now describes the backstop she signed up to as unacceptable
    No she doesn't.
    Well, what do you think she signed up to in December exactly?
    She (unwisely) signed up to a backstop, but not the version later published by the EU. The idea was a backstop which would have kept all of the UK in a sort of customs union (by another name), if no other deal was done. The EU got cold feet because they thought that meant the UK could retain all of the advantages of the Single Market without the obligations, and so they changed it to apply to NI only,
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    It's a complete impasse and Theresa has nowhere to go. Time to anoint Boris as PM. He will be Brexit's kill or cure.
    What if Boris tries to hump it instead?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    HYUFD said:

    As I said Eastern European migration has already fallen since the Leave vote anyway

    So Brexit works then, is the conclusion those that voted for that reason will arrive at...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    Minister talks of a possible multi option Brexit vote

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1052868716243902464
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    But May will not be fazed by that. After all, no deal is better than a bad deal.
  • It's a complete impasse and Theresa has nowhere to go. Time to anoint Boris as PM. He will be Brexit's kill or cure.
    No fear. He will destroy our manufacturing and risk the union

    Good to see he has fallen out of the sky in the recent polls and is past his sell by date.

    Even ERG are promoting David Davis, not Boris as he is toxic to many in the party, the HOC and Country
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Scott_P said:
    It's no great surprise that Buccaneering Berexiteers who never bothered to learn how the EU works, about integrated cross-border supply chains or about how FTAs are done can't be arsed to read their cabinet papers either.

    Of course this also goes for May, who now describes the backstop she signed up to as unacceptable
    No she doesn't.
    Well, what do you think she signed up to in December exactly?
    She (unwisely) signed up to a backstop, but not the version later published by the EU. The idea was a backstop which would have kept all of the UK in a sort of customs union (by another name), if no other deal was done. The EU got cold feet because they thought that meant the UK could retain all of the advantages of the Single Market without the obligations, and so they changed it to apply to NI only,
    Wasn't the text "full alignment with those rules of the Internal Market and the Customs Union"? Is May proposing the whole UK stays in the single market?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    It doesn't, but the current disaster is May's fault, she cannot fix it. And she cannot backpedal on her mistakes. Somebody, anybody else might.

    BoZo, Gove and JRM are more responsible than May.

    Any one of them would be worse.
    The former perhaps. The other 2 not.

    The PM has around a week or it's time to switch to no deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    It's a complete impasse and Theresa has nowhere to go. Time to anoint Boris as PM. He will be Brexit's kill or cure.
    Boris does not have the votes of enough MPs only members so May stays, increasingly likely until the next general election
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1052817405951569921

    Adonis is certifiably loopy, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and I can see this flying. Much though I dislike Gove, he could win over the ERG by being a Brexiter, and the Remainers by offering "Norway for now" as Adonis suggests. He also has the virtue of having a brain and a working set of ears, neither of which seem to be in evidence at 10 Downing Street at the moment.

    Of course, the downside is that Wormtongue Cummings would probably be part of the deal.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,751
    Cyclefree said:

    Ireland, understandably, does not want anything to change. But the fact is that something has changed. Britain has voted to leave. And Ireland needs to accommodate itself to that new reality.

    Ireland just needs to defend its interests. It has no reason to facilitate something that is against its interests.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Scott_P said:
    Probably Olly Robins or somebody close to him. Whether malice or incompetence, May seems to be surrounded by people who are feeding her entirely inaccurate intel on the EU's thinking.

    You'd think, after Salzburg, May would have attempted to curate her sources a bit better, but no.
This discussion has been closed.