politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year ago few would have predicted that TMay would have survi

First, glorious first!

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

MarqueeMark said:

rkrkrk said:

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

We're a bit more sophisticated than that. Let's see the other runners and riders first, but a naked attempt to out-Boris Boris by Hunt has left this voter seriously unimpressed.

Ditto. His USSR comparison was just crass, as well as diplomatically inept, and spoiled what otherwise could have been a relatively nature contribution to the debate,

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rkrkrk said:

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

We're a bit more sophisticated than that. Let's see the other runners and riders first, but a naked attempt to out-Boris Boris by Hunt has left this voter seriously unimpressed.

Ditto. His USSR comparison was just crass, as well as diplomatically inept, and spoiled what otherwise could have been a relatively nature contribution to the debate,

Hmm... Perhaps I've misjudged. The comments on conhome weren't exactly fawning either.
But I think a bit of Boris-like brashness can only benefit him and banish his somewhat bland persona.

It's remarkable that the current Chancellor is a 66-1 shot for next PM.

This is Hunt's Portillo moment: the "who dares wins" de nos jours. I said the other day that if Hunt is serious about the leadership he should hire an image consultant as he often looks a bit shabby on screen. It might also have prevented this crass speech.

rcs1000 said:

I think roughly one third of the Parliamentary Conservative Party would like to replace Mrs May with a more trenchant Leaver. Another third would like to replace her with someone more conciliatory towards the EU. And the final third just wants to keep their seats at the next election.

And everyone clings to nanny for fear of something worse.

Someone who thinks that playing politics is indeed a part of the job description of being PM in a democracy would be nice.

I think, so far as the Parliamentary party are concerned, it is important to remember that nearly 2/3 of them will keep their seats regardless because they have safe seats. Whilst there are those who feel at risk they in turn are spread over the range of views you have described.

daodao said:

Philip_Thompson said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rkrkrk said:

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

We're a bit more sophisticated than that. Let's see the other runners and riders first, but a naked attempt to out-Boris Boris by Hunt has left this voter seriously unimpressed.

Ditto. His USSR comparison was just crass, as well as diplomatically inept, and spoiled what otherwise could have been a relatively nature contribution to the debate,

It was apt and accurate. Especially if you read the full quote.

However true it may or may not be, a foreign secretary speaking in this way doesn't help getting a deal from the EU. The UK is an impoverished supplicant asking for a favour from a big, wealthy and powerful neighbour. The Maybot is living in Lala land with her hands over her ears persisting with the dodo of a Chequers plan, and Hunt was wrong to re-iterate this as a way forward. At least Bojo calls a spade a spade.

The only realistic options now for a Brexit deal are essentially off-the-peg solutions along the lines of those that the EU has with Canada or Norway. Both require a hard Customs border in the Irish Sea, or along the Cheviots.

The people in the 6 counties and of Scotland should be an opportunity to have their say on any agreed option before the UK in its current form leaves the EU, particularly as there were majorities for Remain in these 2 territories on 23/6/2016.

The UK is an impoverished supplicant? OK.

We are actually going to hear from Hammond today. This is the BBC explanation as to why he seems to have so little to say despite having consistently good results to boast about: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45701803

DecrepitJohnL said:

DavidL said:

tlg86 said:

It's remarkable that the current Chancellor is a 66-1 shot for next PM.

Indeed. Who is willing to back him at such a price? It is a long time since we have had such an uninfluential Chancellor with so little to contribute to the political scene. Even Darling had more influence.

As holders of the great offices of state, the ex officio chief contenders if May goes this year or next (so the new leader is Prime Minister rather than Leader of the Opposition) are still Hunt, Javid and Hammond. I've backed all three but if I were starting again, I'd wait till Theresa May fires the starting gun to see who lines up.

In normal circumstances I would agree. At the moment there is the Boris factor (an ex holder of a great office of State of course). What those in the party who are apprehensive about Boris need to do is line up behind a single candidate who can stop him. At the moment that looks like Hunt or Javid, either of whom would find it difficult. Hammond would be annihilated.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

rkrkrk said:

MarqueeMark said:

rkrkrk said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rkrkrk said:

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

We're a bit more sophisticated than that. Let's see the other runners and riders first, but a naked attempt to out-Boris Boris by Hunt has left this voter seriously unimpressed.

Ditto. His USSR comparison was just crass, as well as diplomatically inept, and spoiled what otherwise could have been a relatively nature contribution to the debate,

Hmm... Perhaps I've misjudged. The comments on conhome weren't exactly fawning either.
But I think a bit of Boris-like brashness can only benefit him and banish his somewhat bland persona.

If people want Boris, they'll vote Boris. Hunt doing Boris-lightweight just looks like someone groping around for a way to get noticed. What next Mr Hunt - your views on burqas?

Boris may not have the support needed from MPs. Hunt probably does if he can get the anti-Boris vote. In the final 2, he needs to assure a very Brexity membership he is a convert to their cause. A bit of EU bashing helps that I think.

It might play well with the anti-business Tory party membership. It just looks bonkers to the rest of us.

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

The thought-provoking snippet from the Daily Mail article, to which Cohen refers is

'Mrs May joined a standing ovation for former CBI chief Digby Jones, after he described Mr Johnson as 'irrelevant and offensive'.

daodao said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

The Maybot doesn't have a FEASIBLE plan. At least Bojo realises this.

But he has no idea about a workable alternative. There have been two years since the vote, and for all his massive intellect, he has not produced something that is any better from terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU.

This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.

Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.

rkrkrk said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Genuinely assumed that was a spoof account, but he actually said all that?

Must be true, I read it in the Daily Mail.

On line only of course; not paying good money for it!

Morris_Dancer said:

Explanation discovered for why young voters might believe socialism could work this time:
https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328

And why others believe Brexit will!!

Morris_Dancer said:

https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328

Surely this is up to at least 48% by now?

In SCOTUS news the FBI investigation is limited to interviewing 4 people and as a result the FBI is ignoring the flood of statements from school and college mates of Kavanaugh saying he lied about his drinking habits.

Nailed on to be confirmed, pile on.

IanB2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328

Surely this is up to at least 48% by now?

its probably because they are all spaced out on drugs.

rkrkrk said:

Delighted to see Hunt on manoeuvres. Just read his speech, references to Churchill, British spirit, Maggie... And to top it off, the headline grabbing comparison with the USSR. The faithful ought to lap that stuff up. Feeling good about my bets on him.

Yep, Hunt knows his audience.

Boris is clearly one of those highly educated idiots. He has fallen for his own myths. I suspect he thinks the Normandy landings were won by Churchill’s speeches rather than months of meticulous planning and huge sacrifice.

Alistair said:

In SCOTUS news the FBI investigation is limited to interviewing 4 people and as a result the FBI is ignoring the flood of statements from school and college mates of Kavanaugh saying he lied about his drinking habits.

Nailed on to be confirmed, pile on.

Current Betfair Sportsbook (and presumably Paddy Power though I am too lazy to check) prices are:
Kavanaugh 1/3 to be confirmed: 9/5 not to be.

Mrs C, to be honest, I feel quite a lot of sympathy for the generation following mine.

They've grown up in the foetid* soup of social media bullshit. The sane ones have had to try and put up with woke wankpiffle, those susceptible to peer pressure have gone down a road of madness. They've grown up in a world of echo chambers and fake news.

I feel quite fortunate to have been born at the particular time I was, as I can just about remember a world before everyone had a mobile telephone and the internet was 'a thing' (not literally, but before it entered widespread and common usage).

*Stop trying to get me to change it to 'fetid'. I'm not some sort of colonial, damn it.

AlastairMeeks said:

I get why the Republicans want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. I don’t get why he himself wants to be appointed in circumstances where his reputation and credibility has been shot to pieces. He risks becoming an enduring icon of America’s dysfunction.

Sense of entitlement?

AlastairMeeks said:

I get why the Republicans want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. I don’t get why he himself wants to be appointed in circumstances where his reputation and credibility has been shot to pieces. He risks becoming an enduring icon of America’s dysfunction.

I suspect that he, wrongly, will regard his confirmation as vindication. But making appointment to the Supreme Court something that only the deluded and the deranged would inflict on themselves is as good an example of America's dysfuctionality as any.

Jonathan said:

Boris is clearly one of those highly educated idiots. He has fallen for his own myths. I suspect he thinks the Normandy landings were won by Churchill’s speeches rather than months of meticulous planning and huge sacrifice.

The English public school system turns the mediocre children of the wealthy into articulate, self-confident, well-spoken adults. It doesn’t stop them being mediocre. Our cultural cringe then puts them into positions of power and influence.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

Boris is clearly one of those highly educated idiots. He has fallen for his own myths. I suspect he thinks the Normandy landings were won by Churchill’s speeches rather than months of meticulous planning and huge sacrifice.

The English public school system turns the mediocre children of the wealthy into articulate, self-confident, well-spoken adults. It doesn’t stop them being mediocre. Our cultural cringe then puts them into positions of power and influence.

Like!

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

The Maybot doesn't have a FEASIBLE plan. At least Bojo realises this.

But he has no idea about a workable alternative. There have been two years since the vote, and for all his massive intellect, he has not produced something that is any better from terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU.

This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.

Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.

Bojo supports a Canada-style deal, as does D. Davis. This is a realistic option. The UK cannot be half-in/half-out of the Single Market, which is why the Chequers deal is a non-runner.

"This is a realistic option".

I fear this is a case of "what I wish" == "realistic".

Besides, it's two years too late. And saying "Canada-style deal" is *not* a plan. It's waffle.

The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.

To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.

Jonathan said:

Boris is clearly one of those highly educated idiots. He has fallen for his own myths. I suspect he thinks the Normandy landings were won by Churchill’s speeches rather than months of meticulous planning and huge sacrifice.

I think he’s chiefly handicapped by his laziness and his ego. It’s worked for him so far in life, relying on charisma and one liners, so he doesn’t see why it shouldn’t continue to do so.

In reality, he has been given opportunity at the top level of Government and been found wanting.

Morris_Dancer said:

Explanation discovered for why young voters might believe socialism could work this time:
https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328

If you read the story, it would appear that some of those responding stretch the definition of miracle somewhat. SeanT, for example, would qualify (i'm still trying to get my head around that one).

The team orders story might amuse you, Mr D. Apparently the whole situation happened only because the team strategists were too busy chatting with Wolff during the race:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/45701725

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

The Maybot doesn't have a FEASIBLE plan. At least Bojo realises this.

But he has no idea about a workable alternative. There have been two years since the vote, and for all his massive intellect, he has not produced something that is any better from terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU.

This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.

Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.

Bojo supports a Canada-style deal, as does D. Davis. This is a realistic option. The UK cannot be half-in/half-out of the Single Market, which is why the Chequers deal is a non-runner.

"This is a realistic option".

I fear this is a case of "what I wish" == "realistic".

Besides, it's two years too late. And saying "Canada-style deal" is *not* a plan. It's waffle.

A Canada-style deal is realistic and acceptable to the EU, although there would be major economic challenges. Please see:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R

Again, note the word 'style' in your comment. That is not a plan: it is vague waffling. The devil is in the details, and what is, and is not, acceptable to all the parties would depend on those details.

In addition, it's a bit effing late.

MarqueeMark said:

The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.

To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.

I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, worse.

To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.

May will soldier on for the next month or two but she needs a Deal, if it is No Deal Brexit she hands the advantage to the ERG who will have the momentum to replace her with Boris or Mogg, if she persists with Chequers and the EU continue to block it then Javid or Hunt or Davis look likely to replace her on a Canada Plus ticket

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

tlg86 said:

It's remarkable that the current Chancellor is a 66-1 shot for next PM.

Indeed. Who is willing to back him at such a price? It is a long time since we have had such an uninfluential Chancellor with so little to contribute to the political scene. Even Darling had more influence.

Grown-ups who understand the real world have no meaningful role to play in British politics these days.

I think the Tories have suffered greatly from having such an apolitical Chancellor. We don't have to imagine what Osborne would have done with the employment figures of the last 2 years or the recent growth figures or the falling deficit because we saw it. These successes are going under the radar because the Tories have a Chancellor on mute. We saw the same at the last election although May seems to have been principally at fault then.

Hammond is a very traditional Conservative. He is very close to the business community and gets their concerns in a way that very few, if any, in the Cabinet do. But there is really no point if he does not articulate his views and try to win adherents to his cause. He resists additional spending and simply pockets the accelerated fall in the deficit because that, once again, is what traditional Tories do.

But such a viewpoint really does not come close to addressing the real pressure points on so much of government spending today, whether in housing, Social Care, local government or even defence. The Tories need a political Chancellor who wants to shape the message of what the government is delivering around his spending and makes something of the successes that comes his way. That is not Hammond. Perhaps he suits a PM who thinks playing politics is beneath her.

Osborne contributed greatly to politics’ slide into the JCR. His strategy of punishing the young to buy the votes of the old has done huge, long-term, perhaps irreparable, damage to the Tories.

The Tories have not won under 30s since 1983, it is the 40 to 50s they need to win back

Hammond just trotted out the usual we can’t have Canada style deal because it will split the UK

But the EU are currently trying to split the UK with the Chequers plan.

So, why are we persisting with Chequers?

Mr. L, indeed. He seems to think, as Chancellor, he should neither be seen nor heard.

Mr. B, given Hamilton's nigh on certain for the title, it was a little iffy. Smart, but cold.

HYUFD said:

May will soldier on for the next month or two but she needs a Deal, if it is No Deal Brexit she hands the advantage to the ERG who will have the momentum to replace her with Boris or Mogg, if she persists with Chequers and the EU continue to block it then Javid or Hunt or Davis look likely to replace her on a Canada Plus ticket

Boris or Mogg? I know you're Conservative through to your core, but if that's the future then the party's effed.

I quite like Boris, but he's been found wanting in many areas of politics. Fans seem to think he's saleable to the GBP, but his nature of clowning over gaffes will not work as PM - it barely worked as FS.

As for Mogg: a few months go I said there was no way I could vote for a Conservative Party which had him as a leader. You might want to note that other Conservative-leaning posters agreed.

May's replacement will come from elsewhere. Where JRM may play a role - sadly - is as Kingmaker.

AlastairMeeks said:

I get why the Republicans want Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. I don’t get why he himself wants to be appointed in circumstances where his reputation and credibility has been shot to pieces. He risks becoming an enduring icon of America’s dysfunction.

Because his reputation and credibility have been shot to pieces, whatever happens.
Getting confirmed is the closest thing to vindication, combined with immunity to further scrutiny, that he can now hope for.
(If he doesn't get confirmed, his viability on the Federal bench is perhaps in jeopardy, and is nowhere near as secure as a seat on the Supreme Court.)

And nothing in his history suggests that he gives a damn about the institution itself.

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

JosiasJessop said:

daodao said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1046639644937465857

Sums up Boris perfectly. At least May has a plan.

The Maybot doesn't have a FEASIBLE plan. At least Bojo realises this.

But he has no idea about a workable alternative. There have been two years since the vote, and for all his massive intellect, he has not produced something that is any better from terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU.

This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.

Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.

Bojo supports a Canada-style deal, as does D. Davis. This is a realistic option. The UK cannot be half-in/half-out of the Single Market, which is why the Chequers deal is a non-runner.

"This is a realistic option".

I fear this is a case of "what I wish" == "realistic".

Besides, it's two years too late. And saying "Canada-style deal" is *not* a plan. It's waffle.

A Canada-style deal is realistic and acceptable to the EU, although there would be major economic challenges. Please see:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R

Again, note the word 'style' in your comment. That is not a plan: it is vague waffling. The devil is in the details, and what is, and is not, acceptable to all the parties would depend on those details.

In addition, it's a bit effing late.

But it is a realistic basis for negotiation, unlike the dodo that is Chequers.

A customs border in the Irish Sea is acceptable, provided that is the wish of the people on the island of Ireland, as per the GFA.

"... of the people in the island if Ireland."

I see where your plan fails ...

But again, you ignore "it's a bit effing late."

I repeat a question to all leavers on here: can anyone point out, pre-referendum, any leaver pointed out that the Irish border might be a significant issue?

Yes I was - I support the SF position on the future of Ireland.

Fair enough. But that's also why any such plan will probably fail - and risks the hotting up a conflict that had mostly (though sadly not totally) dissipated.

Whatever anyone thinks of Philip Hammond he's far and away the most clear thinking and plain speaking Tory currently in governent.

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Boris is clearly one of those highly educated idiots. He has fallen for his own myths. I suspect he thinks the Normandy landings were won by Churchill’s speeches rather than months of meticulous planning and huge sacrifice.

I think he’s chiefly handicapped by his laziness and his ego. It’s worked for him so far in life, relying on charisma and one liners, so he doesn’t see why it shouldn’t continue to do so.

In reality, he has been given opportunity at the top level of Government and been found wanting.

If I were a passionate Brexiteer I would feel let down, he is at best a salesman, not a thinker and certainly not a doer.

We are repeatedly found wanting in the last two groups. People see politics as a stage, not a workplace.

Either Hunt or Javid would do a better job, in my view.

Neither are surefire election winners, but it’d be hard to be worse than May and the polling on Boris now shows he’s a liability (and that’s before he proves he can’t do the job in office).

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

The EU parroting "red lines" is not a plan either. Not if they want any sort of deal. There's been no constructive engagement at all from Brussels. Just "red lines".

A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.

To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.

I have some sympathy with that view, but the EU are dealing with a side who are still arguing amongst themselves what they want. The EU are not handling it well IMO, but we are handling it in a much worse manner. If this was a project, you'd sack everyone involved and just start again. Zero progress has been made in two years - though the replacement teams are, if anything, worse.

To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.

And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.

Without a stable UK-EU relationship locked into the geopolitics of Europe, the EU is not a stable entity in the long-term.

JosiasJessop said:

HYUFD said:

May will soldier on for the next month or two but she needs a Deal, if it is No Deal Brexit she hands the advantage to the ERG who will have the momentum to replace her with Boris or Mogg, if she persists with Chequers and the EU continue to block it then Javid or Hunt or Davis look likely to replace her on a Canada Plus ticket

Boris or Mogg? I know you're Conservative through to your core, but if that's the future then the party's effed.

I quite like Boris, but he's been found wanting in many areas of politics. Fans seem to think he's saleable to the GBP, but his nature of clowning over gaffes will not work as PM - it barely worked as FS.

As for Mogg: a few months go I said there was no way I could vote for a Conservative Party which had him as a leader. You might want to note that other Conservative-leaning posters agreed.

May's replacement will come from elsewhere. Where JRM may play a role - sadly - is as Kingmaker.

The Tories would be on 35% with Mogg according to Yougov v Corbyn Labour ie higher than they got from 1997 to 2005 and the same as Blair got in 2005 and 38% with Boris. You may not like Mogg, plenty of Leavers do.

If we go to No Deal it is hard to see May or the Tories lasting long in government, it would likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and reliant on LD votes sooner rather than later reopening negotiations with the EU but Boris or Mogg would be favourites to take over as Leader of the Opposition on a 'true Brexit' platform

https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1046369170735214592?s=21

Slackbladder said:

I give up on the tory party. Not fit for purpose.

What purpose is that?