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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year ago few would have predicted that TMay would have survi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A year ago few would have predicted that TMay would have survived till the 2018 conference
One of my losing bets from last year was placed during the Conservative conference after TMay’s disastrous speech that she wasn’t going to make it as leader till the end of the year.
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And everyone clings to nanny for fear of something worse.
But I think a bit of Boris-like brashness can only benefit him and banish his somewhat bland persona.
I think, so far as the Parliamentary party are concerned, it is important to remember that nearly 2/3 of them will keep their seats regardless because they have safe seats. Whilst there are those who feel at risk they in turn are spread over the range of views you have described.
The only realistic options now for a Brexit deal are essentially off-the-peg solutions along the lines of those that the EU has with Canada or Norway. Both require a hard Customs border in the Irish Sea, or along the Cheviots.
The people in the 6 counties and in Scotland should be an opportunity to have their say on any agreed option before the UK in its current form leaves the EU, preferably by plebiscites, particularly as there were majorities for Remain in these 2 territories on 23/6/2016.
'Mrs May joined a standing ovation for former CBI chief Digby Jones, after he described Mr Johnson as 'irrelevant and offensive'.
This might well be because, unless one side or the other moves, there is nothing better than Chequers in terms of acceptance by the GBP or the EU. In fact, the GBP are so split I doubt there's anything at all, yet alone better.
Boris waffles eloquently. But that's all it is: waffling. He's an entertainer, not a doer.
Mr. Jessop, indeed. A man can be a king, or a court jester, but he can't be both.
F1: be a day or two, probably, before the markets to go up. But well worth checking the Williams/Sauber (and I might add McLaren too) with tiny stakes to 'win' FP1. The weather forecast will wobble a bit but yesterday it varied from wet to very wet.
On line only of course; not paying good money for it!
https://twitter.com/MrDavidStroud/status/1046294375934947328
Nailed on to be confirmed, pile on.
https://twitter.com/skaye/status/1046357591851294720?s=20
I fear this is a case of "what I wish" == "realistic".
Besides, it's two years too late. And saying "Canada-style deal" is *not* a plan. It's waffle.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-options/stairway-to-brexit-barnier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R
Kavanaugh 1/3 to be confirmed: 9/5 not to be.
Hammond is a very traditional Conservative. He is very close to the business community and gets their concerns in a way that very few, if any, in the Cabinet do. But there is really no point if he does not articulate his views and try to win adherents to his cause. He resists additional spending and simply pockets the accelerated fall in the deficit because that, once again, is what traditional Tories do.
But such a viewpoint really does not come close to addressing the real pressure points on so much of government spending today, whether in housing, Social Care, local government or even defence. The Tories need a political Chancellor who wants to shape the message of what the government is delivering around his spending and makes something of the successes that comes his way. That is not Hammond. Perhaps he suits a PM who thinks playing politics is beneath her.
They've grown up in the foetid* soup of social media bullshit. The sane ones have had to try and put up with woke wankpiffle, those susceptible to peer pressure have gone down a road of madness. They've grown up in a world of echo chambers and fake news.
I feel quite fortunate to have been born at the particular time I was, as I can just about remember a world before everyone had a mobile telephone and the internet was 'a thing' (not literally, but before it entered widespread and common usage).
*Stop trying to get me to change it to 'fetid'. I'm not some sort of colonial, damn it.
The Republicans should want a Conservative ideologue with an impeccable backstory to tilt the court in their direction. BK runs a risk of not getting confirmed, or perhaps getting impeached if subsequent investigations show his guilt.
BK on the other hand probably couldn't care less about his credibility, but he's going to get to sit on the Supreme Court and be really powerful.
A Canada-style deal is achievable, if we were to push hard and convince the EU that No Deal, no cash and a super-Singapore on their doorstep was the alternative. Trouble is, we have a PM pushing for her own half-arsed Chequers deal that, if you were being generous, is just a place holder until the EU offers something else at one minute to midnight. And that offer won't be good. And you have a Chancellor who won't even countenance No Deal as ever an option. He might as well be sat on the EU's side of the table in these negotaiations.
To be clear - I don't WANT us to have a No Deal Brexit. It would represent a complete failure of the politicians and the civil servants on both sides of the table. It would represent a loss of wealth on both sides of the table. We'd ALL look like clowns to the international community. And I don't want the Brexit settlement festering over British politics for another generation. Let's get it resolved - properly - and all parties get on with our lives. But its because of those reasons that it represents a very significant negotiating position - and needs to be embraced with conviction. Or you will just have Cameron's "Renegotiation" Redux.
In reality, he has been given opportunity at the top level of Government and been found wanting.
The team orders story might amuse you, Mr D. Apparently the whole situation happened only because the team strategists were too busy chatting with Wolff during the race:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/45701725
In addition, it's a bit effing late.
A customs border in the Irish Sea is acceptable, provided that is the wish of the people on the island of Ireland, as per the GFA. The Westminster government should not have a veto on such a border, if it is acceptable to the majority of people in the 32 counties.
https://www.ft.com/content/95f6e86c-a5fc-11e8-8ecf-a7ae1beff35b
To make matters worse, whilst it isn't a zero-sum game, the EU will probably suffer much less harm from the more difficult scenarios than we would. Frankly, whilst it is not the most important thing facing the UK (though the politicians act as though it is), it is far down the EU's list of issues.
And let's make no bones about this: it is down to the laziness and stupidity of the politicians who shrieked to leave. It is their responsibility, and they have been found utterly lacking.
We are repeatedly found wanting in the last two groups. People see politics as a stage, not a workplace.
I see where your plan fails ...
But again, you ignore "it's a bit effing late."
I repeat a question to all leavers on here: can anyone point out, pre-referendum, any leaver pointed out that the Irish border might be a significant issue?
But the EU are currently trying to split the UK with the Chequers plan.
So, why are we persisting with Chequers?
I support the SF position on the future of Ireland and am also very sympathetic the SNP view on the future of Scotland.
I prefer a deal for E&W that leads to the break-up of the UK, rather than no deal.
Mr. B, given Hamilton's nigh on certain for the title, it was a little iffy. Smart, but cold.
Hunt should beware the old adage 'try to please everyone, end up pleasing no one'
I quite like Boris, but he's been found wanting in many areas of politics. Fans seem to think he's saleable to the GBP, but his nature of clowning over gaffes will not work as PM - it barely worked as FS.
As for Mogg: a few months go I said there was no way I could vote for a Conservative Party which had him as a leader. You might want to note that other Conservative-leaning posters agreed.
May's replacement will come from elsewhere. Where JRM may play a role - sadly - is as Kingmaker.
Getting confirmed is the closest thing to vindication, combined with immunity to further scrutiny, that he can now hope for.
(If he doesn't get confirmed, his viability on the Federal bench is perhaps in jeopardy, and is nowhere near as secure as a seat on the Supreme Court.)
And nothing in his history suggests that he gives a damn about the institution itself.
Boris is still first but down a little at 30%, Javid is a clear second on 19%, Hunt moves to third on 9%, Mogg is on 8% and Davis moves into the top 5 on 6%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/10/our-next-tory-leader-survey-javid-is-up-and-johnson-down-slightly-but-the-latter-retains-a-double-figure-lead.html
Wolff at least had the grace to recognise it as problematic.
(Though I note Vettel said it was a no brainer.)
Neither are surefire election winners, but it’d be hard to be worse than May and the polling on Boris now shows he’s a liability (and that’s before he proves he can’t do the job in office).
If we go to No Deal it is hard to see May or the Tories lasting long in government, it would likely be a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP and reliant on LD votes sooner rather than later reopening negotiations with the EU but Boris or Mogg would be favourites to take over as Leader of the Opposition on a 'true Brexit' platform
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45702609