politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Sha

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

App-gate and a crap May conference speech, plus some infighting and some twattish Tories found swigging Champers should soon put an end to the 6-point lead.

I doubt the app fiasco will move the dial, to be honest. It’s a bubble story.

A bad speech would, though.

I was sort of joking. Actually, what will probably happen, is it really pisses off journos and then they are super grumpy and that isn't a good thing if you want some positive PR.

+1

Some good cartoons:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046087542708359168?s=20

https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1046086841047371776?s=20

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

kingbongo said:

matt said:

Jonathan said:

This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.

One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.

This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems

That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.

Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?

The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.

Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.

I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...

Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

Pulpstar said:

Fishing said:

rcs1000 said:

Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.

Japan:
National debt: 233% of GDP
Inflation: 1.3%/annum.

Peter Pham analyses Japan's debt here.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterpham/2017/12/11/when-will-japans-debt-crisis-implode/#75fba4b4c6d9

TLDR at the moment, it is OK because of globally low interest rates. Big crunch point in ~ 2040.

Japanese households have very high savings rates. It's almost like there is a collective desire to cover their eyes. There is this strange combination where the government doesn't raise enough taxes, but the population agrees to lend the missing millions to the government. And it's all OK.

The question, which I need to address, is "do demographics put constant downward pressure on inflation"? Perhaps there is a correlation between falling asset prices, and falling consumer prices?

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?

OblitusSumMe said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

kingbongo said:

matt said:

Jonathan said:

This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.

One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.

This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems

That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.

Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?

The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.

Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.

I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...

Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.

exactly right - if you are in the UK the power you are gettng to post on PB is almost certainly coming at some point through cables whose temperature is being monitored via an application developed using Agile - just actual Agile not a bunch of tests thinking it means you don’t need process, documentation or proper test practices

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Absolubtely NO mention of Brexit in their (Very good I think) PPB (Even tangentially). They need the game to be moved on come next GE just as much as the Tories.

We’re getting closer to the magic number that will ensure a parliamentary majority for a second referendum.
https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1046022776291758080?s=21

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?

Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.

kingbongo said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

kingbongo said:

matt said:

Jonathan said:

This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.

One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.

This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems

That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.

Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?

The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.

Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.

I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...

Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.

exactly right - if you are in the UK the power you are gettng to post on PB is almost certainly coming at some point through cables whose temperature is being monitored via an application developed using Agile - just actual Agile not a bunch of tests thinking it means you don’t need process, documentation or proper test practices

that was a bunch of tw@s not tests - a bunch of tests, that would have been good

CarlottaVance said:

OGH Tweets

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1046079327132176391?s=20

Time until Jezza starts back-peddling on Starmer's second referendum on Remaining.... 5...4...3...

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?

Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.

No, people do not follow Brexit very closely. Despite its potential importance, in the real world outside PB most people yawn at it.

But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.

CarlottaVance said:

Some good cartoons:

https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1046086841047371776?s=20

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Brexiteer along the way
I said "Ain't we met before?"
But he shouted and he swore
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Corbynista on the way
I said "Baby, you're a dream"
She said "Touch me and I'll scream!"
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ydoethur said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?

Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.

No, people do not follow Brexit very closely. Despite its potential importance, in the real world outside PB most people yawn at it.

But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.

I agree people don't follow Brexit closely, but there was huge coverage of Starmer saying something about another Vote with potentially remaining. If you heard about late night call for revolution or Jezza unable to apologise for his history with people who hate the Jews, you will have definitely heard that bit about Labour offering another vote.

It was lower in the TV bulletins. Laura Smith's Clapham Common moment dominated the airwaves and the net for a full day.

Indeed, the main way Brexit got traction was to show how hopelessly divided Labour are (and to give yet another opportunity to show Corbyn's inability to pick capable Shadow Ministers).

But that doesn't help the Conservatives under current circumstances...

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

HELLO

Its the one that was released last Wednesday

Talking about this...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1046079327132176391

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1046082176968781825

Still has 6% for UKIP.

So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?

MarqueeMark said:

Still has 6% for UKIP.

So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?

After what might happen next week as the Party tears itself apart, almost certainly not.

Betting Post
F1: pre-race ramble here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/09/russia-pre-race-2018.html

In the end, backed Leclerc and Perez to be winner without the big 6, each way (third the odds top 2) at 5.5 and 9.5 respectively.

I was also really tempted by Red Bull to top score at 67. Not a proper tip, but I did put a tiny sum on in the end, because if they ended up doing it I'd be livid if I didn't make anything at all. But they need a big slice of luck (likely one DNF each from Mercedes and Ferrari, and no DNFs themselves).

stodge said:

MarqueeMark said:

Still has 6% for UKIP.

So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?

After what might happen next week as the Party tears itself apart, almost certainly not.

Indeed - assuming the polls are accurate the Tories having any kind of lead given the runctions the government goes through constantly is quite impressive, but they have still be putting off internal confrontations, and contradictions which will need to be tacked head on at some point, with consequences.

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.

Labour are still in the mid to high 30s, their general policies are clearly not a disaster even if it is the case it is putting a ceiling on their support.

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

Some good cartoons:

https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1046086841047371776?s=20

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Brexiteer along the way
I said "Ain't we met before?"
But he shouted and he swore
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Corbynista on the way
I said "Baby, you're a dream"
She said "Touch me and I'll scream!"
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?

Have we reached the end times?

Hang on, ydoethur, one can always RIDE a train

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

CarlottaVance said:

Some good cartoons:

https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1046086841047371776?s=20

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Brexiteer along the way
I said "Ain't we met before?"
But he shouted and he swore
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Corbynista on the way
I said "Baby, you're a dream"
She said "Touch me and I'll scream!"
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away

WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?

Have we reached the end times?

Hang on, ydoethur, one can always RIDE a train

Phew.

For a moment I was really worried there.

I do wonder however how you met them while riding a train and somehow still slowly rode away...

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.

Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.

The forty year bond bear market has begun. Owning 50 year bonds with low yields will be an excellent way to lose money.

I’m putting my FI exposure into short dated USD denominated investment grade corporate bonds

FPT: thanks, PM'd you. Vaccine question is industry-related not medical, you'll be glad to hear!

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

bigjohnowls said:

HELLO

Its the one that was released last Wednesday

Talking about this...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1046079327132176391

https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1046082176968781825

Still has 6% for UKIP.

So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?

No, I don't think so (At least perhaps not with these numbers) - here's why

2017 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 94.0%
2015 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 90.0%
2010 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 93.4%
2005 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP(0) = 92.1%

Green 2017 = 1.7%; SNP 3.1% Resi left (4.8%)
Green 2015 = 3.8%; SNP 4.9% Resi left (8.7%)

BNP 2005 = 0.7%
BNP 2010 = 1.9%
2015, 2017 (*)

I think 2015 was an exception to the rule for the left here, the left vote is firmly held by Corbyn now - there is no "Grune/SPD" level in the polls here. This poll sums through to 90, which means I think the Labour score may well be underestimated here. I don't see much evidence of a Green recovery which means the Tories probably need to be in the 40s.

rcs1000 said:

By the way, I can't help notice that NOBODY seems to have even watched the video yet

I watched it on Youtube earlier

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.

I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.

39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.

But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, I can't help notice that NOBODY seems to have even watched the video yet

I watched it on Youtube earlier

And you liked and shared it, right?

rcs1000 said:

By the way, I can't help notice that NOBODY seems to have even watched the video yet

It sometimes takes a few hours for the viewing figures to be updated.

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.

Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.

The forty year bond bear market has begun. Owning 50 year bonds with low yields will be an excellent way to lose money.

I’m putting my FI exposure into short dated USD denominated investment grade corporate bonds

I think that's very sensible. Two year yields on AA/A/BBB corporate US debt are reasonable (thanks inverted yield curve), you're in the safe haven currency, and you can roll into higher yield assets if inflation picks up. I'm doing similarly, except I'm buying short dated, good credit, munis, as the yields are similar but there are no federal tax implications.

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.

Mostly disagree.

Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.

Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare

Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.

Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.

And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.

And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.

anothernick said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.

I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.

39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.

But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.

Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).

It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.

Mostly disagree.

Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.

Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare

Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.

Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.

And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.

And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.

I like the tax relief on travel idea. Relief on 6,666 miles for car commuters ?

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

anothernick said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.

I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.

39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.

But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.

Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).

It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.

What's wrong with paying civil servants £30k pa?

Nothing, £30 seemed a bit mean for the police though #abbotmaths

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

What services would you have cut to balance the budget ?

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

ydoethur said:

anothernick said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

Andrew said:

Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.

Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.

I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.

The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.

Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.

I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.

39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.

But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.

Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).

It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.

What's wrong with paying civil servants £30k pa?

Nothing, £30 seemed a bit mean for the police though #abbotmaths

Oh, I see. Thank you.

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:

1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.

2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.

Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.

Mostly disagree.

Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.

Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare

Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.

Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.

And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.

And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.

The answer isn’t to meet Corbyn half way. It’s to carry on with what we know works, what’s been a success in the last decade (and the last 40 years!) and make sure we communicate our successes - as well as forensic examination of what others propose.

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

You do realise that is a measure of just how fucked the economy was that we inherited from Labour? Epically fucked. And yet Corbyn wants to go bigger.....far bigger.

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

By the way, I can't help notice that NOBODY seems to have even watched the video yet

I watched it on Youtube earlier

And you liked and shared it, right?

And did a comment about how great it was too...

It's a great video.

Maybe the title is too technocratic to hook people?

Maybe it should be called something like: "gambling with your money? the dark side of executive pay"?

I wouldn't even say share options. As soon as people read something like that it can put them off because they worry they won't understand it.

Alistair said:

rcs1000 said:

Nobody seems to have mentioned on here - or generally - that Mark Judge wrote a book about the teenage drinking culture at Georgetown Prep.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1568381425?ie=UTF8&tag=washpost-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1568381425

With amazing anecdotes about the hard drinking Bart O'Kavanaugh.

There is a difference between a novel and a biography...

DavidL said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/derekkburnett/status/1046052235485040640?s=20

Ouch. That hurts.

See for comparison.....

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=marf+westminster+sex+scandal&safe=active&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSgsnZ_eDdAhUD0RoKHZ1SBscQ_AUIESgE&biw=1104&bih=632#imgrc=nFeHlO3AxP8z_M:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1046127757070151684

MarqueeMark said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

You do realise that is a measure of just how fucked the economy was that we inherited from Labour? Epically fucked. And yet Corbyn wants to go bigger.....far bigger.

Its all true*. Labour fucked up the economy so much that the Tories had to increase the national debt by 80% whilst slash and burning every service in sight.

*Not true

Did Osborne pilot that Conference App when running the Treasury? A Nigerian scammer managing to log in and lift a few hundred billion off us might explain it.

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

So what would you have done, cut more or borrowed more?

tlg86 said:

Very good video Robert. Perhaps you could give your two penn'orth on the audit sector in a future video:

https://tinyurl.com/ybuuruml

Thanks

Yes. I could.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1046128199665684481

Yet despite that the public finances are doing surprisingly better than expected every time the results are announced.

I call bullsh*t.

DecrepitJohnL said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

So what would you have done, cut more or borrowed more?

Cut more, borrowed more or expanded the economy? Funny how growth gets forgotten.

Growth has happened though. Eliminating Labour's deficit on day one was never an option.

Re the video -- the thesis sounds plausible enough but where is the evidence? It is surely something that must have been studied already.

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.

Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...

So what would you have done, cut more or borrowed more?

Cut more, borrowed more or expanded the economy? Funny how growth gets forgotten.

Growth has happened though. Eliminating Labour's deficit on day one was never an option.

The economy was recovering from the global financial crisis in 2010 until Osborne became Chancellor (insert Ballsian flatlining hand gesture here).