App-gate and a crap May conference speech, plus some infighting and some twattish Tories found swigging Champers should soon put an end to the 6-point lead.
I doubt the app fiasco will move the dial, to be honest. It’s a bubble story.
A bad speech would, though.
I was sort of joking. Actually, what will probably happen, is it really pisses off journos and then they are super grumpy and that isn't a good thing if you want some positive PR.
This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.
One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.
This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems
That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.
Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?
The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.
Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.
I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...
Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
Japan: National debt: 233% of GDP Inflation: 1.3%/annum.
Full FBI investigation incoming, if anything is off with Brett this should find it.
Full 7 day max investigation. Even if things are off it may not be possible to ever find proof let alone in 7 days.
If the FBI were even able to determine a date and venue for this party, it would be helpful.
Who was there would be good too.
Don't know about you, but I'd struggle to remember precisely which parties I might have been to when I was 17, and that was in 98 not 1982. All those except perhaps Kavanaugh, Judge and Ford will have long forgotten I suspect. This is 36 years ago !
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
Japan: National debt: 233% of GDP Inflation: 1.3%/annum.
TLDR at the moment, it is OK because of globally low interest rates. Big crunch point in ~ 2040.
Japanese households have very high savings rates. It's almost like there is a collective desire to cover their eyes. There is this strange combination where the government doesn't raise enough taxes, but the population agrees to lend the missing millions to the government. And it's all OK.
The question, which I need to address, is "do demographics put constant downward pressure on inflation"? Perhaps there is a correlation between falling asset prices, and falling consumer prices?
This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.
One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.
This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems
That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.
Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?
The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.
Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.
I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...
Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.
Most agile shops I know have rigorous unit and functional tests too.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?
She's had more last chances than anyone since Graeme Hick (although Keaton Jennings may be about to surpass both of them).
Hick was my hero as a kid. Met him when I was about 6 and he seemed like a giant. Didn’t perform as well for England as for Worcs, though, it has to be said.
This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.
One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.
This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems
That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.
Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?
The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.
Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.
I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...
Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.
exactly right - if you are in the UK the power you are gettng to post on PB is almost certainly coming at some point through cables whose temperature is being monitored via an application developed using Agile - just actual Agile not a bunch of tests thinking it means you don’t need process, documentation or proper test practices
Full FBI investigation incoming, if anything is off with Brett this should find it.
Full 7 day max investigation. Even if things are off it may not be possible to ever find proof let alone in 7 days.
If the FBI were even able to determine a date and venue for this party, it would be helpful.
Who was there would be good too.
Don't know about you, but I'd struggle to remember precisely which parties I might have been to when I was 17, and that was in 98 not 1982. All those except perhaps Kavanaugh, Judge and Ford will have long forgotten I suspect. This is 36 years ago !
But his claims to be out of State can surely be explored and tested. Other than that I agree. In a time before location data on mobiles and CCTV everywhere establishing who was there is likely to be much more difficult.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Absolubtely NO mention of Brexit in their (Very good I think) PPB (Even tangentially). They need the game to be moved on come next GE just as much as the Tories.
Full FBI investigation incoming, if anything is off with Brett this should find it.
Full 7 day max investigation. Even if things are off it may not be possible to ever find proof let alone in 7 days.
I think the question is "will something be unearthed that would cause massive embarassment later?" If so, Kavanaugh will simply withdraw his name from consideration.
If it happens, and I think it is perhaps a one-in-three, one-in-four shot, then it is likely to come from Mark Judge basically refusing to answer questions (or taking the Fifth).
More important is surely Greens are the opposition in that poll? Which is reassuring there was an assumption that opposition might coalesce with the AfD but it seems to have found a healthier outlet.
The Greens ought to go for first place. They just need to hoover up a few more SPD voters disgruntled with the grand coalition.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?
Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.
This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.
One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.
This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems
That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.
Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?
The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.
Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.
I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...
Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.
Most agile shops I know have rigorous unit and functional tests too.
Agile/Lean development has improved quality in my experience. But people do expect more from less and get surprised when things aren’t perfect.
This app thing. Feel sorry for whatever minion is getting ripped to shreds right now.
One’s meant to blame first, reflect later but mistakes happen. Nobody died.
This is a piece of software thst appears to have been knocked up and chucked into a production environment with no release procedure, sign off on acceptance tests - there actually isn’t any excuse for such a basic error - it indicates a dev environment where nobody actually knows how to support each other to avoid these obvious potential problems
That’s the modern way - work fast and break things, as a famous CEO said not so long ago.
Software companies, especially the smaller ones, love to have dev guys and customers working together, fixing stuff on the fly to make their product “dynamic” and “flexible”. Who cares about QA, just let the customers find the bugs. Nothing can seriously go wrong, can it...?
The funny bit is that management hear phrases like "agile development", and assume they mean fast.
Agile can be made to work in certain scenarios, providing the teams are well organised and everyone is up to speed. Most likely those criteria are not met, and an ongoing mess/crisis is the result.
I wouldn’t recommend it for anything involving customer data though, or anything subject to GDPR, PCI DSS or putting on aeroplanes, trains, power stations, political conferences, that sort of thing...
Agile development doesn't mean releasing things without proper testing. It means doing the development (and testing) in small chunks so that you can change your development priorities without having to rewrite a multi-year development plan.
exactly right - if you are in the UK the power you are gettng to post on PB is almost certainly coming at some point through cables whose temperature is being monitored via an application developed using Agile - just actual Agile not a bunch of tests thinking it means you don’t need process, documentation or proper test practices
that was a bunch of tw@s not tests - a bunch of tests, that would have been good
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?
Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.
No, people do not follow Brexit very closely. Despite its potential importance, in the real world outside PB most people yawn at it.
But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?
Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.
No, people do not follow Brexit very closely. Despite its potential importance, in the real world outside PB most people yawn at it.
But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.
I agree people don't follow Brexit closely, but there was huge coverage of Starmer saying something about another Vote with potentially remaining. If you heard about late night call for revolution or Jezza unable to apologise for his history with people who hate the Jews, you will have definitely heard that bit about Labour offering another vote.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
You don't think the anti-semitism and calls for violent revolution may perhaps have been politically maladroit?
Most people don't follow this stuff very closely. The big thing that got lots of coverage was Brexit vote wheeze.
No, people do not follow Brexit very closely. Despite its potential importance, in the real world outside PB most people yawn at it.
But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.
I agree people don't follow Brexit closely, but there was huge coverage of Starmer saying something about another Vote with potentially remaining. If you heard about late night call for revolution or Jezza unable to apologise for his history with people who hate the Jews, you will have definitely heard that bit about Labour offering another vote.
It was lower in the TV bulletins. Laura Smith's Clapham Common moment dominated the airwaves and the net for a full day.
Indeed, the main way Brexit got traction was to show how hopelessly divided Labour are (and to give yet another opportunity to show Corbyn's inability to pick capable Shadow Ministers).
But that doesn't help the Conservatives under current circumstances...
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?
In the end, backed Leclerc and Perez to be winner without the big 6, each way (third the odds top 2) at 5.5 and 9.5 respectively.
I was also really tempted by Red Bull to top score at 67. Not a proper tip, but I did put a tiny sum on in the end, because if they ended up doing it I'd be livid if I didn't make anything at all. But they need a big slice of luck (likely one DNF each from Mercedes and Ferrari, and no DNFs themselves).
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
The forty year bond bear market has begun. Owning 50 year bonds with low yields will be an excellent way to lose money.
I’m putting my FI exposure into short dated USD denominated investment grade corporate bonds
So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?
After what might happen next week as the Party tears itself apart, almost certainly not.
Indeed - assuming the polls are accurate the Tories having any kind of lead given the runctions the government goes through constantly is quite impressive, but they have still be putting off internal confrontations, and contradictions which will need to be tacked head on at some point, with consequences.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
Labour are still in the mid to high 30s, their general policies are clearly not a disaster even if it is the case it is putting a ceiling on their support.
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?
Have we reached the end times?
Hang on, ydoethur, one can always RIDE a train
Phew.
For a moment I was really worried there.
I do wonder however how you met them while riding a train and somehow still slowly rode away...
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?
Have we reached the end times?
Hang on, ydoethur, one can always RIDE a train
Phew.
For a moment I was really worried there.
I do wonder however how you met them while riding a train and somehow still slowly rode away...
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
The forty year bond bear market has begun. Owning 50 year bonds with low yields will be an excellent way to lose money.
I’m putting my FI exposure into short dated USD denominated investment grade corporate bonds
FPT: thanks, PM'd you. Vaccine question is industry-related not medical, you'll be glad to hear!
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
fair comment.. its just the magic money tree all over again
So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?
No, I don't think so (At least perhaps not with these numbers) - here's why
2017 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 94.0% 2015 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 90.0% 2010 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 93.4% 2005 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP(0) = 92.1%
Green 2017 = 1.7%; SNP 3.1% Resi left (4.8%) Green 2015 = 3.8%; SNP 4.9% Resi left (8.7%)
BNP 2005 = 0.7% BNP 2010 = 1.9% 2015, 2017 (*)
I think 2015 was an exception to the rule for the left here, the left vote is firmly held by Corbyn now - there is no "Grune/SPD" level in the polls here. This poll sums through to 90, which means I think the Labour score may well be underestimated here. I don't see much evidence of a Green recovery which means the Tories probably need to be in the 40s.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
Japan: National debt: 233% of GDP Inflation: 1.3%/annum.
Yes, that is the counter to my theory.
I think that's down to the size of Japan's QE programme and the fact that most of the debt is internally held in the country.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Everywhere, politicians are realising that fiscal rectitude doesn't pay anyome. The long-term consequences of deficit spending are always the same: inflation.
The forty year bond bear market has begun. Owning 50 year bonds with low yields will be an excellent way to lose money.
I’m putting my FI exposure into short dated USD denominated investment grade corporate bonds
I think that's very sensible. Two year yields on AA/A/BBB corporate US debt are reasonable (thanks inverted yield curve), you're in the safe haven currency, and you can roll into higher yield assets if inflation picks up. I'm doing similarly, except I'm buying short dated, good credit, munis, as the yields are similar but there are no federal tax implications.
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.
Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
Pay public servants £30 a year???? Are you sure this was in the Labour manifesto?
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
I like the tax relief on travel idea. Relief on 6,666 miles for car commuters ?
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.
Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.
Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
What's wrong with paying civil servants £30k pa?
Nothing, £30 seemed a bit mean for the police though #abbotmaths
Well, looks like Labour had their reverse conference bounce. Probably a logic to that: they got their time in the sun, and it wasn't a pretty sight.
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
I thought Labour's conference went fine really, but I can see the sense in that - neither are exactly sterling quality right now, so exposure might be the last thing either needs.
The only explanation I can think of was the Brexit positioning.
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
I should point out we thought that last year, that nobody would fall for a patently uncosted dream list of a pair of intellectually stunted Marxists who were quite open about their desire to take the country back to the 1820s.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
But the alternative was a patently unachievable fantasy promoted by people whose aim appeared to be to take the country back to the 16th century. The 1820s looked quite attractive compared to that.
Without wishing to be all Four Yorkshiremen about this, it really, really wasn't. It was just a poor campaign by a shy person who had no people skills (edit - although I agree they had significant policy problems as well).
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
What's wrong with paying civil servants £30k pa?
Nothing, £30 seemed a bit mean for the police though #abbotmaths
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
The answer isn’t to meet Corbyn half way. It’s to carry on with what we know works, what’s been a success in the last decade (and the last 40 years!) and make sure we communicate our successes - as well as forensic examination of what others propose.
I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.
Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...
You do realise that is a measure of just how fucked the economy was that we inherited from Labour? Epically fucked. And yet Corbyn wants to go bigger.....far bigger.
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
The answer isn’t to meet Corbyn half way. It’s to carry on with what we know works, what’s been a success in the last decade (and the last 40 years!) and make sure we communicate our successes - as well as forensic examination of what others propose.
Successes? The Tories have led the UK into the worst crisis since 1940. The very existence of the union is in question. Even Corbyn would struggle to beat that.
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Brexiteer along the way I said "Ain't we met before?" But he shouted and he swore So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay When I met a Corbynista on the way I said "Baby, you're a dream" She said "Touch me and I'll scream!" So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
WTAF? Sunil was riding from Colwyn Bay when he could have gone by train? Especially some rather nice Mark II loco hauled stock?
Have we reached the end times?
Hang on, ydoethur, one can always RIDE a train
Phew.
For a moment I was really worried there.
I do wonder however how you met them while riding a train and somehow still slowly rode away...
By the way, having done the Pembroke branch yesterday, I have essentially done all National Rail routes that run on weekdays in England und Wales
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
I like the tax relief on travel idea. Relief on 6,666 miles for car commuters ?
I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.
Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...
You do realise that is a measure of just how fucked the economy was that we inherited from Labour? Epically fucked. And yet Corbyn wants to go bigger.....far bigger.
Its all true*. Labour fucked up the economy so much that the Tories had to increase the national debt by 80% whilst slash and burning every service in sight.
*Not true
Did Osborne pilot that Conference App when running the Treasury? A Nigerian scammer managing to log in and lift a few hundred billion off us might explain it.
If I was writing the PM's speech I would include two big ticket items:
1. £3000 worth of travel costs relief at basic rate, something only those who work benefit from. Loads of companies have travel loan programmes, it wouldn't be difficult to offer basic rate relief.
2. Mortgage interest relief at the basic rate for first time buyers for the first 5 years of a mortgage.
Fuck the deficit, there's no votes in fiscal continence at the moment. We need to win in 2022, even if it means a little bit less tax take.
Mostly disagree.
Reverse the fiscal drag that’s pulled more and more people into the 40% rate.
Reverse benefit-in-kind treatment of employer-provided healthcare
Work to integrate income tax and NI, specifically so that idle rich pay more on index-linked final salary pensions.
Allow councils to increase local taxes for social care, aim to reduce central support for local government.
And most importantly, run a balanced budget and shout about it from the rooftops. Go hard on those in bright red who will borrow even more from your grandchildren to pay for today’s largesse.
And we can watch as Corbyn wins and destroys the national economy. At the end of the day, we have to win first. Everything else, including policy, comes second.
The answer isn’t to meet Corbyn half way. It’s to carry on with what we know works, what’s been a success in the last decade (and the last 40 years!) and make sure we communicate our successes - as well as forensic examination of what others propose.
And we'll lose. We're in the era of vote buying, the party can either get on board and do it in a sensible way or lose.
Not altogether surprised Labour don't seem to have had a conference bounce. The Brexit policy was an inconsistent mess, there was the shambles over the deputy leadership, an MP called for a general strike, Corbyn promised 400,000 new energy related jobs (seriously), and at last Business people started saying how much damage some of the economic policies would do.
Columnists are right to say that Labour have identified some of the problems, but they wont achieve electoral success if middle England thinks their solutions are either fantasy or damaging.
I keep reading about Labour and profligate spending and debt.
Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...
You do realise that is a measure of just how fucked the economy was that we inherited from Labour? Epically fucked. And yet Corbyn wants to go bigger.....far bigger.
Its all true*. Labour fucked up the economy so much that the Tories had to increase the national debt by 80% whilst slash and burning every service in sight.
*Not true
Most academic economists appear to agree with you.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1046087542708359168?s=20
https://twitter.com/bobscartoons/status/1046086841047371776?s=20
She's had more last chances than anyone since Graeme Hick (although Keaton Jennings may be about to surpass both of them).
Now the Tories will probably do the same, and we'll be back to 40/40 or whatever.
This is 36 years ago !
The question, which I need to address, is "do demographics put constant downward pressure on inflation"? Perhaps there is a correlation between falling asset prices, and falling consumer prices?
If it happens, and I think it is perhaps a one-in-three, one-in-four shot, then it is likely to come from Mark Judge basically refusing to answer questions (or taking the Fifth).
https://twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/1046022776291758080?s=21
But one deranged nobody with an IQ in single figures elected by accident calling for revolution plus Corbyn having to repeatedly explain he doesn't actually hate Jews despite working for a Neo-Nazi government were, shall we say, suboptimal.
When I met a Brexiteer along the way
I said "Ain't we met before?"
But he shouted and he swore
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
I was ridin' down the trail from Colwyn Bay
When I met a Corbynista on the way
I said "Baby, you're a dream"
She said "Touch me and I'll scream!"
So I tipped my hat and slowly rode away
Indeed, the main way Brexit got traction was to show how hopelessly divided Labour are (and to give yet another opportunity to show Corbyn's inability to pick capable Shadow Ministers).
But that doesn't help the Conservatives under current circumstances...
So probably the lead is a couple of points better for the Tories than the headline number. Majority in reach?
Have we reached the end times?
Betting PostF1: pre-race ramble here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/09/russia-pre-race-2018.html
In the end, backed Leclerc and Perez to be winner without the big 6, each way (third the odds top 2) at 5.5 and 9.5 respectively.
I was also really tempted by Red Bull to top score at 67. Not a proper tip, but I did put a tiny sum on in the end, because if they ended up doing it I'd be livid if I didn't make anything at all. But they need a big slice of luck (likely one DNF each from Mercedes and Ferrari, and no DNFs themselves).
Fine.. Only if you think the presentation of Marxist type policies was fine, then I suppose so, otherwise it was a fecking disaster. I doubt the electorate will fall for it.
39.99% of the electorate as near as toucher proved us wrong.
For a moment I was really worried there.
I do wonder however how you met them while riding a train and somehow still slowly rode away...
2017 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 94.0%
2015 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 90.0%
2010 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP = 93.4%
2005 Con + Lab + LD + UKIP(0) = 92.1%
Green 2017 = 1.7%; SNP 3.1% Resi left (4.8%)
Green 2015 = 3.8%; SNP 4.9% Resi left (8.7%)
BNP 2005 = 0.7%
BNP 2010 = 1.9%
2015, 2017 (*)
I think 2015 was an exception to the rule for the left here, the left vote is firmly held by Corbyn now - there is no "Grune/SPD" level in the polls here. This poll sums through to 90, which means I think the Labour score may well be underestimated here. I don't see much evidence of a Green recovery which means the Tories probably need to be in the 40s.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1568381425?ie=UTF8&tag=washpost-20&camp=1789&linkCode=xm2&creativeASIN=1568381425
What happened to "Labour's narrative is speaking to middle England" even the right wing columnists were all writing this week?
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
It was Labour who wanted to pay public servants £30 a year and destroy the state education system. Not the Tories.
Pay public servants £30 a year???? Are you sure this was in the Labour manifesto?
Yet its the Tories who have borrowed Eight Hundred Billion Pounds in 8 years AND had to slash front line services...
but thats a very big if
Maybe the title is too technocratic to hook people?
Maybe it should be called something like: "gambling with your money? the dark side of executive pay"?
I wouldn't even say share options. As soon as people read something like that it can put them off because they worry they won't understand it.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=marf+westminster+sex+scandal&safe=active&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiSgsnZ_eDdAhUD0RoKHZ1SBscQ_AUIESgE&biw=1104&bih=632#imgrc=nFeHlO3AxP8z_M:
https://tinyurl.com/ybuuruml
*Not true
Did Osborne pilot that Conference App when running the Treasury? A Nigerian scammer managing to log in and lift a few hundred billion off us might explain it.
Columnists are right to say that Labour have identified some of the problems, but they wont achieve electoral success if middle England thinks their solutions are either fantasy or damaging.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1046134832110215175
Yes. I could.
I call bullsh*t.