politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Canucked. Where the UK goes next
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Maybe so - but rather closer to what other pollsters have been giving us.sarissa said:
Statistical noise.justin124 said:
ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.justin124 said:
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.SandyRentool said:
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
May may well achieve the same feat though...0 -
Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.sarissa said:
Statistical noise.justin124 said:
ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.justin124 said:
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.SandyRentool said:
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
May may well achieve the same feat though...0 -
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Looks like the Democrats overplayed their hand here.Scott_P said:
As the rest of the world looks on at this circus thinking what the f....0 -
BMG has the parties level pegging with the latest Opinium giving Labour a 2% lead. Very little between the parties I suspect.david_herdson said:
Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.sarissa said:
Statistical noise.justin124 said:
ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.justin124 said:
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.SandyRentool said:
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
May may well achieve the same feat though...
Labour is actually performing better than at the beginning of 1961 - ie 15/16 months into the 1959 Parliament when the Tories under Macmillan were still ahead. The same applies to the 1987 Parliament in that the Tories still had a clear lead in Autumn 1988.Whilst the Tories did go on to win in 1992 - after ditching Thatcher - Labour still performed better than polls were indicating in late 1988.0 -
Those are two pretty exceptional cases though, both of which were during Labour infighting following a Tory landslide. Obviously, it's far too early to say that Labour will lose the next election. I would say though that Labour is far behind where it should be in the polls given the usual intra-election trend, and given the government's difficulties.justin124 said:
BMG has the parties level pegging with the latest Opinium giving Labour a 2% lead. Very little between the parties I suspect.david_herdson said:
Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.sarissa said:
Statistical noise.justin124 said:
ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.justin124 said:
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.SandyRentool said:
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
May may well achieve the same feat though...
Labour is actually performing better than at the beginning of 1961 - ie 15/16 months into the 1959 Parliament when the Tories under Macmillan were still ahead. The same applies to the 1987 Parliament in that the Tories still had a clear lead in Autumn 1988.Whilst the Tories did go on to win in 1992 - after ditching Thatcher - Labour still performed better than polls were indicating in late 1988.0 -
There are also the examples of the 2001 and 2005 elections. In both cases, the Tories did a fair bit better than polls were suggesting 15/16 months into the 1997 and 2001 Parliaments. I am simply pointing out that we have been here before - though most supposedly well informed media commentators would have us believe otherwise!david_herdson said:
Those are two pretty exceptional cases though, both of which were during Labour infighting following a Tory landslide. Obviously, it's far too early to say that Labour will lose the next election. I would say though that Labour is far behind where it should be in the polls given the usual intra-election trend, and given the government's difficulties.justin124 said:
BMG has the parties level pegging with the latest Opinium giving Labour a 2% lead. Very little between the parties I suspect.david_herdson said:
Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.sarissa said:
Statistical noise.justin124 said:
ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.justin124 said:
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.SandyRentool said:
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.AndyJS said:"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
May may well achieve the same feat though...
Labour is actually performing better than at the beginning of 1961 - ie 15/16 months into the 1959 Parliament when the Tories under Macmillan were still ahead. The same applies to the 1987 Parliament in that the Tories still had a clear lead in Autumn 1988.Whilst the Tories did go on to win in 1992 - after ditching Thatcher - Labour still performed better than polls were indicating in late 1988.
I also suspect that Labour - and the Opposition parties more generally - have been rather frozen out by the Brexit issue which has made it difficult to push other agendas. In the context of an election campaign, that would change - as we saw in 2017.0 -
European stocks falling like a stone. Italy banks at risk apparently-1