politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Canucked. Where the UK goes next

sarissa said:

justin124 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:

SandyRentool said:

AndyJS said:

"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%

Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"

And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.

YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.

Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.

May may well achieve the same feat though...

ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.

Statistical noise.

Maybe so - but rather closer to what other pollsters have been giving us.

david_herdson said:

sarissa said:

justin124 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:

SandyRentool said:

AndyJS said:

"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%

Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"

And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.

YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.

Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.

May may well achieve the same feat though...

ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.

Statistical noise.

Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.

BMG has the parties level pegging with the latest Opinium giving Labour a 2% lead. Very little between the parties I suspect.
Labour is actually performing better than at the beginning of 1961 - ie 15/16 months into the 1959 Parliament when the Tories under Macmillan were still ahead. The same applies to the 1987 Parliament in that the Tories still had a clear lead in Autumn 1988.Whilst the Tories did go on to win in 1992 - after ditching Thatcher - Labour still performed better than polls were indicating in late 1988.

david_herdson said:

justin124 said:

david_herdson said:

sarissa said:

justin124 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

justin124 said:

SandyRentool said:

AndyJS said:

"Europe Elects
‏ @EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago

UK, YouGov poll:

CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%

Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"

And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.

YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.

Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.

May may well achieve the same feat though...

ICM shows the Tory lead falling from 3% to 1%.

Statistical noise.

Probably. But 15 months into the parliament, with the government hopelessly and publicly split on a key policy, with public service strains on the NHS and in education, with wage growth stagnant and with a lack of transmitted vision for the country, the Tories are still ahead of Labour.

BMG has the parties level pegging with the latest Opinium giving Labour a 2% lead. Very little between the parties I suspect.
Labour is actually performing better than at the beginning of 1961 - ie 15/16 months into the 1959 Parliament when the Tories under Macmillan were still ahead. The same applies to the 1987 Parliament in that the Tories still had a clear lead in Autumn 1988.Whilst the Tories did go on to win in 1992 - after ditching Thatcher - Labour still performed better than polls were indicating in late 1988.

Those are two pretty exceptional cases though, both of which were during Labour infighting following a Tory landslide. Obviously, it's far too early to say that Labour will lose the next election. I would say though that Labour is far behind where it should be in the polls given the usual intra-election trend, and given the government's difficulties.

There are also the examples of the 2001 and 2005 elections. In both cases, the Tories did a fair bit better than polls were suggesting 15/16 months into the 1997 and 2001 Parliaments. I am simply pointing out that we have been here before - though most supposedly well informed media commentators would have us believe otherwise!
I also suspect that Labour - and the Opposition parties more generally - have been rather frozen out by the Brexit issue which has made it difficult to push other agendas. In the context of an election campaign, that would change - as we saw in 2017.