Good article from Alastair. Two points I'd pick up on.
He is absolutely right to focus on N Ireland as the most difficult and intractable problem. CETA doesn't provide a solution, unless married to the mythical technological solutions of Chequers. As such, I don't think CETA is a blind alley so much as a distraction. In principle, it's no more of a blind alley than Chequers; it's just that while addressing some secondary problems and opening up others, it doesn't deal with the primary one.
On the other hand, I think Alastair over-rates the difficulty of getting a CETA deal agreed. There are two big advantages to a tweaked CETA over a bespoke UK deal. Firstly, it's already there. It might have taken seven years to negotiate the deal but that's been done now: it's a model that can be picked off the shelf. And secondly, Britain is starting from a point of regulatory alignment. There's also the fact that an A50 deal is done under QMV rather than unanimity and requires no ratification outside the UK and EU parliaments (though that assumes that the trade deal *can* be done as part of an extended A50 process rather than a separate stage).
But the elephant in the room is Ireland and looking to Canada ignores it.
As Nicky Morgan pointed out in no uncertain terms this morning
Can't help feeling that May is continuing to take things one day or week at a time, and this week is simply focused on getting through the Tory conference unscathed, she'll have another think about negotiating strategy again after that. If there's a long-term strategy I don't see it.
O/T: Blue wave building, though the latest polls are mostly in Democra states:
Can't help feeling it's unfortunate that the Kavenaugh hearings are turning out to be almost entirely partisan on both sides. The judge doesn't seem very suitable for the job, but I'm not sure I'd bar him on grounds of unsupported testimony, convincing though it sounded.
Ignoring the sexual assault allegations there were 3 clear cut instances of perjury in his testimony that should get him removed from his current position never mind bar him getting a SCOTUS seat.
And then there's his "not backed up by any financial records" story about his large debts being wiped out and house payments.
What were the three instances of perjury? To European sensibilities he has a particularly belligerent and unattractive personality but that doesn't seem to be the way he's viewed over there if the vox pops are representative.
He claimed he wasn't involved with the William Prior vetting process. His emails show him discussing it.
He claimed he never handled stolen Democratic emails, his email records showed that he received them.
He claimed no knowledge of the warentless wiretap policy of the Bush administration he worked for which is also plainly untrue. I belive his get out for this one is that he though the question was about a very specific sub policy rather than the policy ib general.
Nate Silver stated baldly on his 538 site that Kavanaugh lied about his drinking. I'm not sure what evidence Nate has for that but since it would be an obvious libel if untrue I'd be prepared to accept Nate's word on that one.
Good article from Alastair. Two points I'd pick up on.
He is absolutely right to focus on N Ireland as the most difficult and intractable problem. CETA doesn't provide a solution, unless married to the mythical technological solutions of Chequers. As such, I don't think CETA is a blind alley so much as a distraction. In principle, it's no more of a blind alley than Chequers; it's just that while addressing some secondary problems and opening up others, it doesn't deal with the primary one.
On the other hand, I think Alastair over-rates the difficulty of getting a CETA deal agreed. There are two big advantages to a tweaked CETA over a bespoke UK deal. Firstly, it's already there. It might have taken seven years to negotiate the deal but that's been done now: it's a model that can be picked off the shelf. And secondly, Britain is starting from a point of regulatory alignment. There's also the fact that an A50 deal is done under QMV rather than unanimity and requires no ratification outside the UK and EU parliaments (though that assumes that the trade deal *can* be done as part of an extended A50 process rather than a separate stage).
But the elephant in the room is Ireland and looking to Canada ignores it.
I disagree with their the concept of CETA being "off the shelf" it's over a thousand pages long, much of it dealing with exceptions like quotas for Christmas trees and who can be a notary public in Alberta. Each of those one thousand plus pages went through painful negotiation. By contrast EEA is IIRC thirty or so pages long, admittedly with an accretion of protocols. That is off the shelf.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Maybe, but there is a point there. Like Corbyn winning the labour leadership election, he was saying and doing things and offering something new whilst the other's were offering nothing new.
The same could happen in a general election, and there a real risk of it.
The Tories need to be much bolder, and far less mangerial.
1) Any remaining chance of Biden getting the nomination must be rapidly approaching zero.
2) Kamala Harris was the dog that didn't bark, wasn't she? She was in an ideal position to make an impression, she got a bit of traction earlier on with a Youtube clip of her on a line of questioning that ultimately didn't appear to go anywhere, then kind-of pottered around in front of an open goal in this latest round. I have a theory that she isn't very good.
3) So look at the other women in the race: Elizabeth Warren got good retweeting action, Kirsten Gillibrand is sharp and audacious.
All these talks of deals and option surely misses the point that the individual countries of the EU individually have to ratify the final deal. I have to ask myself why would an EU member state that is in the Single Market and the Customs Union want to allow a nation outside of the EU, access to that market when by doing so may impact on their own economies. After all if the UK stops selling dairy products to the rest of the EU does that not mean that there is greater opportunities for French or Polish dairy producers to increase their own sales to other EU states?
Is there a nation in the EU that is a net importer of UK goods?
Nate Silver stated baldly on his 538 site that Kavanaugh lied about his drinking. I'm not sure what evidence Nate has for that but since it would be an obvious libel if untrue I'd be prepared to accept Nate's word on that one.
Given every classmate interviewed on the subject says he was a repeated hard drinker it's pretty clear he lied on that.
Some recovering alcoholics on another forum I read are saying his beer based testimony had all the verbal ticks and tricks of someone covering how much they actually drink.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Can't help feeling that May is continuing to take things one day or week at a time, and this week is simply focused on getting through the Tory conference unscathed, she'll have another think about negotiating strategy again after that. If there's a long-term strategy I don't see it.
O/T: Blue wave building, though the latest polls are mostly in Democra states:
Can't help feeling it's unfortunate that the Kavenaugh hearings are turning out to be almost entirely partisan on both sides. The judge doesn't seem very suitable for the job, but I'm not sure I'd bar him on grounds of unsupported testimony, convincing though it sounded.
Ignoring the sexual assault allegations there were 3 clear cut instances of perjury in his testimony that should get him removed from his current position never mind bar him getting a SCOTUS seat.
And then there's his "not backed up by any financial records" story about his large debts being wiped out and house payments.
What were the three instances of perjury? To European sensibilities he has a particularly belligerent and unattractive personality but that doesn't seem to be the way he's viewed over there if the vox pops are representative.
He claimed he wasn't involved with the William Prior vetting process. His emails show him discussing it.
He claimed he never handled stolen Democratic emails, his email records showed that he received them.
He claimed no knowledge of the warentless wiretap policy of the Bush administration he worked for which is also plainly untrue. I belive his get out for this one is that he though the question was about a very specific sub policy rather than the policy ib general.
Nate Silver stated baldly on his 538 site that Kavanaugh lied about his drinking. I'm not sure what evidence Nate has for that but since it would be an obvious libel if untrue I'd be prepared to accept Nate's word on that one.
He also apparently lied about his involvement in the confirmation process of other controversial Federal Court nominees, and the use of stolen documents.
(The above is one of the reasons for the delay in release, or outright refusal to release, documents relating to his service in the Bush White House.)
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Maybe, but there is a point there. Like Corbyn winning the labour leadership election, he was saying and doing things and offering something new whilst the other's were offering nothing new.
The same could happen in a general election, and there a real risk of it.
The Tories need to be much bolder, and far less mangerial.
I do agree but Corbyn's labour is imploding and letting in Hatton just confirms how far they have lost it.
By meekly looking on their mps are complicit in antisemitism and approving destructive hard left economic policies
Whatever you think of the merits of the Judge, the Democrats have behaved appallingly. They had the allegations in July and sat on them until it was too late for the FBI to include them in the investigation
IIUC Feinstein says the accuser asked her to keep it confidential - do you have any evidence that this is untrue?
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
Agree completely.
I’d love to see someone like Gove in the Treasury after Brexit - it’s going to require a thinker rather than a manager in that position, to react quickly where necessary to what happens in the economy.
Labour has the ideas, the Tories have the poll leads. The country is in a mess. It is hard to see how we get out of this. It could be that we need to see Brexit through to its final and logical conclusion: the break-up of the UK. The English - right and left - need to understand that we do not matter that much anymore and then we need to accept that. All delusions have to be destroyed before the rebuilding can begin.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
Well, it would certainly be more dynamic and take the fight to Labour.
I have concerns about some of Javid's ideas though. Getting rid of the opt-out only pension saving scheme is just plain bonkers.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It probably bears repeating, especially as you are likely to put forward a more convincing case than Nelson.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
First they came for the Sun and I did not speak out, because.... Then they came for the Mail and I did not speak out... Then they came for the Guardian....ITS A F##KING OUTRAGE...
Dissent will not be tolerated by the Cult. The Guardian were really supportive of McDonnell and Corbyn's speeches, but somehow they are now in the same bin as Sun and Mail with the Cult.
Amazing how stupid the party is. Only six months to go to Brexit and they should be supportive. Anytime post April 2019 is the time to seek her resignation.
Can't help feeling that May is continuing to take things one day or week at a time, and this week is simply focused on getting through the Tory conference unscathed, she'll have another think about negotiating strategy again after that. If there's a long-term strategy I don't see it.
O/T: Blue wave building, though the latest polls are mostly in Democra states:
Can't help feeling it's unfortunate that the Kavenaugh hearings are turning out to be almost entirely partisan on both sides. The judge doesn't seem very suitable for the job, but I'm not sure I'd bar him on grounds of unsupported testimony, convincing though it sounded.
Amazing how stupid the party is. Only six months to go to Brexit and they should be supportive. Anytime post April 2019 is the time to seek her resignation.
Effectively they are supportive. Their threat to move next year not only rejects another election with may in charge but also a move for her this conference.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It's true and worth saying. Worse still for the Conservatives, they can't stop fighting each other (because of Brexit, natch).
And here is your 2020 London Mayoral runner up....
Whenever I see him interviewed, he seems a nice chap, good back-story, but is weak and he will get steamrollered by experienced political operator like Khan in a Labour city.
Can't help feeling that May is continuing to take things one day or week at a time, and this week is simply focused on getting through the Tory conference unscathed, she'll have another think about negotiating strategy again after that. If there's a long-term strategy I don't see it.
O/T: Blue wave building, though the latest polls are mostly in Democra states:
Can't help feeling it's unfortunate that the Kavenaugh hearings are turning out to be almost entirely partisan on both sides. The judge doesn't seem very suitable for the job, but I'm not sure I'd bar him on grounds of unsupported testimony, convincing though it sounded.
Ignoring the sexual assault allegations there were 3 clear cut instances of perjury in his testimony that should get him removed from his current position never mind bar him getting a SCOTUS seat.
And then there's his "not backed up by any financial records" story about his large debts being wiped out and house payments.
What were the three instances of perjury? To European sensibilities he has a particularly belligerent and unattractive personality but that doesn't seem to be the way he's viewed over there if the vox pops are representative.
He claimed he wasn't involved with the William Prior vetting process. His emails show him discussing it.
He claimed he never handled stolen Democratic emails, his email records showed that he received them.
He claimed no knowledge of the warentless wiretap policy of the Bush administration he worked for which is also plainly untrue. I belive his get out for this one is that he though the question was about a very specific sub policy rather than the policy ib general.
Nate Silver stated baldly on his 538 site that Kavanaugh lied about his drinking. I'm not sure what evidence Nate has for that but since it would be an obvious libel if untrue I'd be prepared to accept Nate's word on that one.
He also apparently lied about his involvement in the confirmation process of other controversial Federal Court nominees, and the use of stolen documents.
(The above is one of the reasons for the delay in release, or outright refusal to release, documents relating to his service in the Bush White House.)
He looks like a drinker, that is for sure.
His testimony made clear he is a very political judge and his appointment will give SCOTUS an entrenched right wing majority. The fabric holding the US together is getting looser and looser. The single Demos may soon cease to exist. It is a country in very deep trouble.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Yes. It's coming to the point where only a revolution in the party system is capable of delivering a deal. Given the splits within both the Tories and Labour, that might in theory be possible but for two things.
Firstly, it'd need May to lead the process, throwing over her own party and making common cause with moderate Lab remainers, to conclude an EEA-type agreement, which would then presumably need ratifying in a referendum to give it the legitimacy of overturning the previous result. May is not the person to take such a leap in the dark.
And secondly, the necessary order of events makes it even harder because even if she were to accept an EEA deal as necessary and holding majority support in the country and Commons, how she'd get there is another matter. It's unlikely that her own party would let her start out along that road but Labour MPs would surely not be willing to give her a blank cheque either - would they really be willing to split their own party just as the Tories were riven in two? A centrist 'moderate' party (which may or may not exclude the Lib Dems), that would probably be Blairite in many ways might, if it worked, come to dominate the political scene but it's very easy to see how it could also fail. By contrast, Corbyn would be pushing for an immediate election - one Labour would very probably win - which Labour MPs, no matter what their reservations about Corbyn, would surely find more attractive.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It's true and worth saying. Worse still for the Conservatives, they can't stop fighting each other (because of Brexit, natch).
Part of the problem is that nature abhors a vacuum. Labour aren't opposing the Tories so they feel free to argue amongst themselves. If Labour were turning their guns on the Tories instead of each other and Jews then the Tories would be more likely to turn their guns on Labour.
Labour has the ideas, the Tories have the poll leads. The country is in a mess. It is hard to see how we get out of this. It could be that we need to see Brexit through to its final and logical conclusion: the break-up of the UK. The English - right and left - need to understand that we do not matter that much anymore and then we need to accept that. All delusions have to be destroyed before the rebuilding can begin.
The Country is in a mess??????? What did you think of the winter of 1978/79, dreamland???
The Country is in great shape, thats why people want to come and live here.
Good luck to Shaun Bailey, he’s got 18 months to challenge the mayor about the serious crime and gang problems in London, and that he’s implementing almost nothing of the manifesto on which he was elected.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It's true and worth saying. Worse still for the Conservatives, they can't stop fighting each other (because of Brexit, natch).
Labour seem to be taking the Remainers caricature of Brexit (we'll turn back the clock and make everything here) and selling it to Hovis eating Northern pit folk
We are to be back in the mid 70s. Labour being taken over by the hard left, and a defeated Europhile Tory leader having to go... Thatcher describes the Labour party's troubles in the 70's here, she might as well be talking about 2018.
And here is your 2020 London Mayoral runner up....
Whenever I see him interviewed, he seems a nice chap, good back-story, but is weak and he will get steamrollered by experienced political operator like Khan in a Labour city.
4 more years of tweeting about Trump and letting gangs take over London then.
Labour seem to be taking the Remainers caricature of Brexit (we'll turn back the clock and make everything here) and selling it to Hovis eating Northern pit folk
We are to be back in the mid 70s. Labour being taken over by the hard left, and a defeated Europhile Tory leader having to go... Thatcher describes the Labour party's troubles in the 70's here, she might as well be talking about 2018.
Evidently Labour have seen how a mad reactionary fantasy was successfully sold to the public and concluded that rather than fight that it's easier to follow the same path. In a sense you can't blame them.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It's true and worth saying. Worse still for the Conservatives, they can't stop fighting each other (because of Brexit, natch).
Part of the problem is that nature abhors a vacuum. Labour aren't opposing the Tories so they feel free to argue amongst themselves. If Labour were turning their guns on the Tories instead of each other and Jews then the Tories would be more likely to turn their guns on Labour.
Hopefully next week will see the Conservatives both have a debate about ideas on subjects other than Brexit, and take it hard to Corbyn and McDonnell for the economic fantasy land they presented last week.
Regarding Degsy "rejoining" the Labour Party. He has applied for membership. His membership is provisional for a period of 8 weeks where his CLP can raise an objection to his joining
Sophy Ridge in her Friday column in Metro surprisingly enthused by the Corbyn speech and by Labour's week in general.
While you can easily pick holes in the Labour plans it's not about the plans themselves but the fact Labour is addressing the world beyond Brexit that matters.
By contrast, the Conservatives look like they are being eaten alive by the inner contradictions of Brexit. Canada (add as many pluses as you like), Norway, FTA, WTO - all well and good and all very important but not what most people are about most of the time.
Ridge also makes the point all the noise about anti-Semitism hasn't had a huge impact with most voters (only 5% mentioned it as a factor in a Populus survey).
Labour's problem is without doubt the messenger, not the message which is superficially attractive and popular despite the contradictions and obvious flaws.
Will the Conservative Conference be dominated by A50? Will May's speech be better than her disastrous 2017 effort? Do bears used tree-covered areas for toiletry activities?
And here is your 2020 London Mayoral runner up....
Whenever I see him interviewed, he seems a nice chap, good back-story, but is weak and he will get steamrollered by experienced political operator like Khan in a Labour city.
Don't underestimate him - great news he has the nomination! In to 3s (in proper money) on BF.
Good article from Alastair. Two points I'd pick up on.
He is absolutely right to focus on N Ireland as the most difficult and intractable problem. CETA doesn't provide a solution, unless married to the mythical technological solutions of Chequers. As such, I don't think CETA is a blind alley so much as a distraction. In principle, it's no more of a blind alley than Chequers; it's just that while addressing some secondary problems and opening up others, it doesn't deal with the primary one.
On the other hand, I think Alastair over-rates the difficulty of getting a CETA deal agreed. There are two big advantages to a tweaked CETA over a bespoke UK deal. Firstly, it's already there. It might have taken seven years to negotiate the deal but that's been done now: it's a model that can be picked off the shelf. And secondly, Britain is starting from a point of regulatory alignment. There's also the fact that an A50 deal is done under QMV rather than unanimity and requires no ratification outside the UK and EU parliaments (though that assumes that the trade deal *can* be done as part of an extended A50 process rather than a separate stage).
But the elephant in the room is Ireland and looking to Canada ignores it.
The A50 ratification process just relates to the withdrawal agreement so it wouldn’t allow a trade deal that would otherwise require full member state ratification to go through by the back door.
What is in the A50 deal is at the discretion of the member states. There is no reason why it can't include a trade agreement. Whether a further round of talks could be defined as within that process, once March 29 has passed is another matter. My instinct is that it couldn't but it's not explicitly excluded.
Will the Conservative Conference be dominated by A50? Will May's speech be better than her disastrous 2017 effort? Do bears used tree-covered areas for toiletry activities?
Managing to keep her voice through the speech and not having the stage set fall down around her head would be considered a "win" for Theresa this year!
Mr. Gin, there was a comment about Khan breaking ranks and calling for a second referendum shortly after he was named as Labour's candidate for 2020, I think.
Sophy Ridge in her Friday column in Metro surprisingly enthused by the Corbyn speech and by Labour's week in general.
While you can easily pick holes in the Labour plans it's not about the plans themselves but the fact Labour is addressing the world beyond Brexit that matters.
By contrast, the Conservatives look like they are being eaten alive by the inner contradictions of Brexit. Canada (add as many pluses as you like), Norway, FTA, WTO - all well and good and all very important but not what most people are about most of the time.
Ridge also makes the point all the noise about anti-Semitism hasn't had a huge impact with most voters (only 5% mentioned it as a factor in a Populus survey).
Labour's problem is without doubt the messenger, not the message which is superficially attractive and popular despite the contradictions and obvious flaws.
Will the Conservative Conference be dominated by A50? Will May's speech be better than her disastrous 2017 effort? Do bears used tree-covered areas for toiletry activities?
May was interveiwed by BBC London last night prior to the announcement of the Tory mayoral candidate. She looked tired, nervous and heavily made up. When asked how she could sell Brexit to Londoners she came out with vacuous cliches about getting a good deal and new opportunities outside the EU. It was a zombie-like performance, she clearly has no idea how to get out of the hole into which she has dug herself.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
Mr. Gin, there was a comment about Khan breaking ranks and calling for a second referendum shortly after he was named as Labour's candidate for 2020, I think.
I heard about him welshing on the referendum result but not that Mayoral announcement.
I'm amazed that Mrs Merkel seems to be making the same basic mistake that Mrs Thatcher made, which is hanging on to office for too long. Her party's ratings rating are sinking at an alarming rate with all pollsters.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
I'm amazed that Mrs Merkel seems to be making the same basic mistake that Mrs Thatcher made, which is hanging on to office for too long. Her party's ratings rating are sinking at an alarming rate with all pollsters.
When she starts talking about herself in the third person we'll know she really is done for.
Labour seem to be taking the Remainers caricature of Brexit (we'll turn back the clock and make everything here) and selling it to Hovis eating Northern pit folk
We are to be back in the mid 70s. Labour being taken over by the hard left, and a defeated Europhile Tory leader having to go... Thatcher describes the Labour party's troubles in the 70's here, she might as well be talking about 2018.
Evidently Labour have seen how a mad reactionary fantasy was successfully sold to the public and concluded that rather than fight that it's easier to follow the same path. In a sense you can't blame them.
If they win can we moan that its not fair and refuse to let them take charge?
I'm amazed that Mrs Merkel seems to be making the same basic mistake that Mrs Thatcher made, which is hanging on to office for too long. Her party's ratings rating are sinking at an alarming rate with all pollsters.
It will be interesting to see how the Bavaria and Hesse state elections play out next month. I suspect there will be very little good news for the CSU, CDU and SPD respectively in either election with the Greens set to advance in Bavaria and AfD (among others) showing well in Hesse.
In Hesse, the last poll I saw shows both the CDU and SPD down five points with the AfD polling 11%.
In Bavaria the CSU are down from 48% to 35% and the SPD down from 21% to 13% which is remarkable. The Greens are up eight points and the AfD are on 12% so the CSU will lose its majority in the Landtag with the Greens as the official opposition.
I quite like Degsy. His unabashed venality is quite refreshing. He'd be a great Home Secretary.
Yes, he has matured over the last decades, turning from rabble rousing Trot to property spiv. Surely something that Tories approve of Still a snappy dresser too.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
No real surprise once Bailey got the endorsement of the Evening Standard and George Osborne.
This is no cakewalk for Sadiq Khan - he ought to win and probably will win given Labour's strength in the capital but Bailey might be the only Conservative capable of getting enough second preference votes from Greens, Lib Dems and others to make a fight of it.
The local elections this year cemented Labour's hold in its heartlands (and oddly enough Conservative and LD hold in theirs as well) and Bailey has to struggle with Boris's appalling record on the sale of Police stations and the fall in Police numbers.
The Crossrail delay will be an embarrassment for Khan and especially if it is delayed well into 2020 though the mistakes were probably not made on his watch but that's how politics works. The housing issue is where Khan does look vulnerable - for all the construction going on, many Londoners are asking what is being built and for whom and how much of it is for those struggling to get out of rental accommodation and into freehold property ownership?
I quite like Degsy. His unabashed venality is quite refreshing. He'd be a great Home Secretary.
Yes, he has matured over the last decades, turning from rabble rousing Trot to property spiv. Surely something that Tories approve of Still a snappy dresser too.
He went bust on the property business did he not? Ran out of other peoples money.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
You don't fatten a pig on market day.
Well if they change leaders next Spring that still gives them a maximum of three years before the next election (two if things are looking good in 2021)
I quite like Degsy. His unabashed venality is quite refreshing. He'd be a great Home Secretary.
Yes, he has matured over the last decades, turning from rabble rousing Trot to property spiv. Surely something that Tories approve of Still a snappy dresser too.
He went bust on the property business did he not? Ran out of other peoples money.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
You don't fatten a pig on market day.
Well if they change leaders next Spring that still gives them a maximum of three years before the next election (two if things are looking good in 2021)
Indeed a couple of years is a long time in politics. But there'll always be a reason not to push May out, next it will be lets get through the transition and by then its too late. It has to be next year or never.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
As I said in the post, bar my flirtation with Blair in '97/'01, I'm a lifelong Tory voter (since '79). That's not quite the same as being a Tory. I'm not frightened by Corbyn and his rabble, or at least, not frightened enough to vote for the Tories again. They're like the Major government, just knackered and intellectually bankrupt from being in power too long.
... I have concerns about some of Javid's ideas though. Getting rid of the opt-out only pension saving scheme is just plain bonkers.
I hadn't seen that. What is he suggesting? A link would be much appreciated.
There was a throwaway line int he Telegraph, haven't seen anything else
It was in a list of ideas he laid out in Cabinet (or one of the brexit sub-committees) in a ten minute speech on what they should be doing. Most of it was the usual get rid of red tape etc etc.
Comments
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
The same could happen in a general election, and there a real risk of it.
The Tories need to be much bolder, and far less mangerial.
1) Any remaining chance of Biden getting the nomination must be rapidly approaching zero.
2) Kamala Harris was the dog that didn't bark, wasn't she? She was in an ideal position to make an impression, she got a bit of traction earlier on with a Youtube clip of her on a line of questioning that ultimately didn't appear to go anywhere, then kind-of pottered around in front of an open goal in this latest round. I have a theory that she isn't very good.
3) So look at the other women in the race: Elizabeth Warren got good retweeting action, Kirsten Gillibrand is sharp and audacious.
Some recovering alcoholics on another forum I read are saying his beer based testimony had all the verbal ticks and tricks of someone covering how much they actually drink.
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
Time to batten down the hatches.
(The above is one of the reasons for the delay in release, or outright refusal to release, documents relating to his service in the Bush White House.)
By meekly looking on their mps are complicit in antisemitism and approving destructive hard left economic policies
I’d love to see someone like Gove in the Treasury after Brexit - it’s going to require a thinker rather than a manager in that position, to react quickly where necessary to what happens in the economy.
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1045387791985790977
I have concerns about some of Javid's ideas though. Getting rid of the opt-out only pension saving scheme is just plain bonkers.
He is not only a fruitbat, he is anti-UK government (I mean in a non-party political way), anti-Western / pro-Russian.
Then they came for the Mail and I did not speak out...
Then they came for the Guardian....ITS A F##KING OUTRAGE...
Dissent will not be tolerated by the Cult. The Guardian were really supportive of McDonnell and Corbyn's speeches, but somehow they are now in the same bin as Sun and Mail with the Cult.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/09/27/kavanaugh-hearing-gop-women-220736
https://shkspr.mobi/blog/tag/doctor-who-phones/
Whenever I see him interviewed, he seems a nice chap, good back-story, but is weak and he will get steamrollered by experienced political operator like Khan in a Labour city.
His testimony made clear he is a very political judge and his appointment will give SCOTUS an entrenched right wing majority. The fabric holding the US together is getting looser and looser. The single Demos may soon cease to exist. It is a country in very deep trouble.
Now all he has to do is win the election.
Edited extra bit: right, a political betting question (odd, I know).
On Ladbrokes, and Betfair, Bailey is 4 to win, Khan is 1.4. I backed Bailey with a tiny sum at 61.
Will Khan's odds tighten, or lengthen? Should I hedge my small stakes bet?
[Incidentally, I do have the bet ID for said bet so hopefully it won't magically vanish...]
Firstly, it'd need May to lead the process, throwing over her own party and making common cause with moderate Lab remainers, to conclude an EEA-type agreement, which would then presumably need ratifying in a referendum to give it the legitimacy of overturning the previous result. May is not the person to take such a leap in the dark.
And secondly, the necessary order of events makes it even harder because even if she were to accept an EEA deal as necessary and holding majority support in the country and Commons, how she'd get there is another matter. It's unlikely that her own party would let her start out along that road but Labour MPs would surely not be willing to give her a blank cheque either - would they really be willing to split their own party just as the Tories were riven in two? A centrist 'moderate' party (which may or may not exclude the Lib Dems), that would probably be Blairite in many ways might, if it worked, come to dominate the political scene but it's very easy to see how it could also fail. By contrast, Corbyn would be pushing for an immediate election - one Labour would very probably win - which Labour MPs, no matter what their reservations about Corbyn, would surely find more attractive.
The Country is in great shape, thats why people want to come and live here.
We are to be back in the mid 70s. Labour being taken over by the hard left, and a defeated Europhile Tory leader having to go... Thatcher describes the Labour party's troubles in the 70's here, she might as well be talking about 2018.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nO44vzTLa7g
He might decide he wants to get back to Wesminster so he's around to have a run at the leadership should Jezza screw up in 2022?
Sophy Ridge in her Friday column in Metro surprisingly enthused by the Corbyn speech and by Labour's week in general.
While you can easily pick holes in the Labour plans it's not about the plans themselves but the fact Labour is addressing the world beyond Brexit that matters.
By contrast, the Conservatives look like they are being eaten alive by the inner contradictions of Brexit. Canada (add as many pluses as you like), Norway, FTA, WTO - all well and good and all very important but not what most people are about most of the time.
Ridge also makes the point all the noise about anti-Semitism hasn't had a huge impact with most voters (only 5% mentioned it as a factor in a Populus survey).
Labour's problem is without doubt the messenger, not the message which is superficially attractive and popular despite the contradictions and obvious flaws.
Will the Conservative Conference be dominated by A50? Will May's speech be better than her disastrous 2017 effort? Do bears used tree-covered areas for toiletry activities?
@EuropeElects
2h2 hours ago
Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-2)
SPD-S&D: 17% (-3)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 17% (+1)
AfD-EFDD: 16% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 10%
FDP-ALDE: 8% (+1)
Field work: 25/09/18 – 27/09/18
Sample size: 1,260"
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
People were having a go at Aaronovitch for publicly sneering, rightly imo.
https://twitter.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1045399767478685697
EDIT: Ok. I'm not doing this on purpose. Will restart my laptop. That is properly weird.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/27/boris-johnson-tells-theresa-may-scrap-chequers-plan
In Hesse, the last poll I saw shows both the CDU and SPD down five points with the AfD polling 11%.
In Bavaria the CSU are down from 48% to 35% and the SPD down from 21% to 13% which is remarkable. The Greens are up eight points and the AfD are on 12% so the CSU will lose its majority in the Landtag with the Greens as the official opposition.
"The economic rationalists don’t get the immigration debate
Their case for migration is removed from the lived experience of people"
https://unherd.com/2018/09/economic-rationalists-dont-get-immigration-debate/
This is no cakewalk for Sadiq Khan - he ought to win and probably will win given Labour's strength in the capital but Bailey might be the only Conservative capable of getting enough second preference votes from Greens, Lib Dems and others to make a fight of it.
The local elections this year cemented Labour's hold in its heartlands (and oddly enough Conservative and LD hold in theirs as well) and Bailey has to struggle with Boris's appalling record on the sale of Police stations and the fall in Police numbers.
The Crossrail delay will be an embarrassment for Khan and especially if it is delayed well into 2020 though the mistakes were probably not made on his watch but that's how politics works. The housing issue is where Khan does look vulnerable - for all the construction going on, many Londoners are asking what is being built and for whom and how much of it is for those struggling to get out of rental accommodation and into freehold property ownership?
In Britain there would presumably be a majority verdict rather than a holdout.