The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Can people please stop saying this: it was going to be my article for tomorrow! (It might still be).
It's true and worth saying. Worse still for the Conservatives, they can't stop fighting each other (because of Brexit, natch).
They fight each other because they enjoy it. If it wasn't Brexit, it would be something else (eg the early 2000's).
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
As I said in the post, bar my flirtation with Blair in '97/'01, I'm a lifelong Tory voter (since '79). That's not quite the same as being a Tory. I'm not frightened by Corbyn and his rabble, or at least, not frightened enough to vote for the Tories again. They're like the Major government, just knackered and intellectually bankrupt from being in power too long.
But, I think a lot of people are. That was certainly my impression, when canvassing in Shaftesbury Ward earlier this year. And, this was a ward that probably voted about 70% Remain,
1. Brexit. Can't agree on anything beyond that they don't agree, and is seriously pissing off rank and file members who won't be as active campaigning, AND is seriously pissing off rank and file Tory voters who won't be as keen to turn out. The prefect GOTV storm is brewing
2. The economy. On paper the Tories think they are doing a fantastic Job. Extra jobs created in Mansfield so Labour are LYING someone said down thread. But if things are so marvellous why did the Tories lose their majority and lose the Brexit referendum? We're spending more on health and education but people are complaining they moan, why aren't they grateful? Well see that expensive marketisation structure you created to make things like CCGs and Academy Chains? They are hoovering up cash from the front line at a rate of knots. And even Tory voters in Tory council areas aren't stupid enough to not realise that services are being cut to the bone and Tory councils going bust because of massive Tory cuts.
Take both factors - pissed off voters not called on by pissed off activists, AND issues that are real being ignored by Tory politicians - and the Tories are in real trouble. Corbyn may be offering some fruity solutions to these issues which makes people uneasy. But at least he is offering solutions. At least he is recognising the problems.
1. Brexit. Can't agree on anything beyond that they don't agree, and is seriously pissing off rank and file members who won't be as active campaigning, AND is seriously pissing off rank and file Tory voters who won't be as keen to turn out. The prefect GOTV storm is brewing
2. The economy. On paper the Tories think they are doing a fantastic Job. Extra jobs created in Mansfield so Labour are LYING someone said down thread. But if things are so marvellous why did the Tories lose their majority and lose the Brexit referendum? We're spending more on health and education but people are complaining they moan, why aren't they grateful? Well see that expensive marketisation structure you created to make things like CCGs and Academy Chains? They are hoovering up cash from the front line at a rate of knots. And even Tory voters in Tory council areas aren't stupid enough to not realise that services are being cut to the bone and Tory councils going bust because of massive Tory cuts.
Take both factors - pissed off voters not called on by pissed off activists, AND issues that are real being ignored by Tory politicians - and the Tories are in real trouble. Corbyn may be offering some fruity solutions to these issues which makes people uneasy. But at least he is offering solutions. At least he is recognising the problems.
1. Brexit. Can't agree on anything beyond that they don't agree, and is seriously pissing off rank and file members who won't be as active campaigning, AND is seriously pissing off rank and file Tory voters who won't be as keen to turn out. The prefect GOTV storm is brewing
2. The economy. On paper the Tories think they are doing a fantastic Job. Extra jobs created in Mansfield so Labour are LYING someone said down thread. But if things are so marvellous why did the Tories lose their majority and lose the Brexit referendum? We're spending more on health and education but people are complaining they moan, why aren't they grateful? Well see that expensive marketisation structure you created to make things like CCGs and Academy Chains? They are hoovering up cash from the front line at a rate of knots. And even Tory voters in Tory council areas aren't stupid enough to not realise that services are being cut to the bone and Tory councils going bust because of massive Tory cuts.
Take both factors - pissed off voters not called on by pissed off activists, AND issues that are real being ignored by Tory politicians - and the Tories are in real trouble. Corbyn may be offering some fruity solutions to these issues which makes people uneasy. But at least he is offering solutions. At least he is recognising the problems.
Tories need a narrative and quickly.
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
And to think people say May doesn’t have a reason to call a second referendum! It’s her best hope of long-term survival.
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
On the regulation. What Boris is saying is we accept the EU product standards only i.e a cleaner can only be 1400w. What chequers says is that we accept the whole regulatory bookm social standards, envronmental standards, health and safety. So all those working time directives and working at height directives. This is where all the costs to business are.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
And to think people say May doesn’t have a reason to call a second referendum! It’s her best hope of long-term survival.
That or an Article 50 extension. They can have their Brexit when she's ready to retire.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
We're still better off than the Americans, who have only Republicans and Democrats to choose between.
... I have concerns about some of Javid's ideas though. Getting rid of the opt-out only pension saving scheme is just plain bonkers.
I hadn't seen that. What is he suggesting? A link would be much appreciated.
There was a throwaway line int he Telegraph, haven't seen anything else
It was in a list of ideas he laid out in Cabinet (or one of the brexit sub-committees) in a ten minute speech on what they should be doing. Most of it was the usual get rid of red tape etc etc.
Having the odd bonkers idea is fine as long as the person doing so is prepared to listen to why it's bonkers and amend or drop accordingly. Someone who has some bonkers ideas because they challenge existing orthodoxies is also likely to come up with more not-bonkers and beneficial ideas than someone who has no ideas.
1. Brexit. Can't agree on anything beyond that they don't agree, and is seriously pissing off rank and file members who won't be as active campaigning, AND is seriously pissing off rank and file Tory voters who won't be as keen to turn out. The prefect GOTV storm is brewing
2. The economy. On paper the Tories think they are doing a fantastic Job. Extra jobs created in Mansfield so Labour are LYING someone said down thread. But if things are so marvellous why did the Tories lose their majority and lose the Brexit referendum? We're spending more on health and education but people are complaining they moan, why aren't they grateful? Well see that expensive marketisation structure you created to make things like CCGs and Academy Chains? They are hoovering up cash from the front line at a rate of knots. And even Tory voters in Tory council areas aren't stupid enough to not realise that services are being cut to the bone and Tory councils going bust because of massive Tory cuts.
Take both factors - pissed off voters not called on by pissed off activists, AND issues that are real being ignored by Tory politicians - and the Tories are in real trouble. Corbyn may be offering some fruity solutions to these issues which makes people uneasy. But at least he is offering solutions. At least he is recognising the problems.
Tories need a narrative and quickly.
They're polling level or ahead in mid-term, their narrative is fine. What they need is a way to do (or undo) Brexit without blowing their own party up or setting the economy on fire.
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Whereas in Germany, you can vote for parties who get representation, but still end up with a CDU-led coalition in perpetuity. PR is not a panacea for a fragmenting, capricious electorate.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
And to think people say May doesn’t have a reason to call a second referendum! It’s her best hope of long-term survival.
If you were either involved in politics in general, or the Tory party in particular, you'd realise how absolutely absurd that sounds.
If May calls a second referendum, she'll lose circa 1/3rd of her vote, 2/3rds of her party, and 75% of her activist base.
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
On the regulation. What Boris is saying is we accept the EU product standards only i.e a cleaner can only be 1400w. What chequers says is that we accept the whole regulatory bookm social standards, envronmental standards, health and safety. So all those working time directives and working at height directives. This is where all the costs to business are.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
Am hearing much about Tories need a positive narrative, which is true. But would anyone care to venture what it might be? Other than the usual cut tax, regulations and privatise, which are not exactly new ideas or particularly in vogue at the moment?
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
You don't fatten a pig on market day.
Well if they change leaders next Spring that still gives them a maximum of three years before the next election (two if things are looking good in 2021)
Indeed a couple of years is a long time in politics. But there'll always be a reason not to push May out, next it will be lets get through the transition and by then its too late. It has to be next year or never.
My attitude is straight forward. There is no viable alternative to TM until 29th March 2019 but she does need to get a deal. If that is not possible it does not matter who the PM is, events will takeover.
I am supportive of TM but I am not blind to her flaws or even Hammond's dull personna.
As soon as possible from April 2019 she needs to stand down and announce a proper succession election continuing as caretaker PM until that has concluded.
The new PM then needs a new cabinet and to replace Hammond and consign Grayling to the back benches forever
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
On the regulation. What Boris is saying is we accept the EU product standards only i.e a cleaner can only be 1400w. What chequers says is that we accept the whole regulatory bookm social standards, envronmental standards, health and safety. So all those working time directives and working at height directives. This is where all the costs to business are.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
Chequers doesn't propose that we accept the whole regulatory book, only those parts required for frictionless trade of goods and agricultural products. So identical to what Boris appears to mean, as far as I can see. And, as @SandyRentool has just pointed out, we'd want to keep the other regulations anyway, in practice.
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
On the regulation. What Boris is saying is we accept the EU product standards only i.e a cleaner can only be 1400w. What chequers says is that we accept the whole regulatory bookm social standards, envronmental standards, health and safety. So all those working time directives and working at height directives. This is where all the costs to business are.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
Not entirely clear why the rest of the EU would want to open their markets to the hypothetical libertarian pirate island that's boasting about its plans to undercut their environmental and social standards but hey.
On topic: Alastair is right that 'Canada' is not some magic bullet, although I suppose it's just shorthand for a looser arrangement than the Chequers proposal. The problem is that a looser arrangement hits two massive problems: the Irish border issue remains and is probably more difficult, and the supply-chain problems for the car and aerospace industry would be extremely damaging. The second of these in particular is the main reason why the grown-ups in the Cabinet have been pushing against this.
It's interesting that Boris' 'alternative' proposals don't seem to be getting much traction. This is probably because they are a mixture of wishful thinking and a rephrasing of Chequers:
Instead, he said the UK should seek what he termed a “Super Canada” deal, which he said would involve UK and EU regulatory bodies ensuring conformity of goods with each other’s standards, as well as zero tariffs or quotas on imports and exports and investment in technological support for customs controls.
Either he means that we just accept EU standards (in which case what's the difference compared with Chequers?) or he means that the EU should recognise UK standards (in which case he's in cloud-cuckoo land).
On the regulation. What Boris is saying is we accept the EU product standards only i.e a cleaner can only be 1400w. What chequers says is that we accept the whole regulatory bookm social standards, envronmental standards, health and safety. So all those working time directives and working at height directives. This is where all the costs to business are.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
Not entirely clear why the rest of the EU would want to open their markets to the hypothetical libertarian pirate island that's boasting about its plans to undercut their environmental and social standards but hey.
I agree, but this is what the whole debate is about. How much control of our economy post brexit does the EU have?
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
Many people are struggling, some corporate behaviour is disgraceful, but there are a great many people whose experience is different. After all, 63% do own their own homes, median household wealth is £278,000, many people enjoy well-paid employment, or self-employment. Not all of them are Conservatives by any means, but someone is keeping Conservative support at 40%+.
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
Many people are struggling, some corporate behaviour is disgraceful, but there are a great many people whose experience is different. After all, 63% do own their own homes, median household wealth is £278,000, many people enjoy well-paid employment, or self-employment. Not all of them are Conservatives by any means, but someone is keeping Conservative support at 40%+.
I think a lot of our issues are simply the hangover from the GFC. We had 25% GDP growth (or better) per decade...until the '10s. We've had 11.2% since '07, and it's not going to look any better at the end of this year. That's a huge adjustment.
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
Many people are struggling, some corporate behaviour is disgraceful, but there are a great many people whose experience is different. After all, 63% do own their own homes, median household wealth is £278,000, many people enjoy well-paid employment, or self-employment. Not all of them are Conservatives by any means, but someone is keeping Conservative support at 40%+.
I think a lot of our issues are simply the hangover from the GFC. We had 25% GDP growth (or better) per decade...until the '10s. We've had 11.2% since '07, and it's not going to look any better at the end of this year. That's a huge adjustment.
With hindsight, one can see big problems in the run up to the GFC. Both home ownership, and household incomes for the poorest 50%, declined between 2003 and 2008.
And anyway, the Tories took us into Europe and Thatcher created the SM.
Bonkers.
It's hardly an original insight, but the Tories took us into the EEC. The Tories will be taking us out of the EU, which is a whole different animal, William's views notwithstanding. We certainly made a great contribution, both economically and intellectually, I think that's inarguable.
I'd also like to throw into the pot the looming crisis in local Government funding.
The Budget on 29/10 is going to be a critical event in terms of seeing how much Hammond's largesse extends to providing extra funding for County Councils in particular to meet rising costs for the provision of social care for adults and vulnerable children.
The end of two-tier local Government provision is happening whether Counties and Districts like it or not and as County authorities succumb to budget pressures the pressure to combine functions is going to be irresistible.
As an aside, I'm puzzled why a Conservative Government isn't more interested in reducing the debt as well as the deficit. I realise we may have the debt at historically very favourable rates so the pressure to overpay and reduce isn't that strong but if we can spare some to repay more now (instead of tax cuts) we will be reducing the burden on future generations and I thought inheritance and thinking of the future were key Conservative attributes.
Interesting that same sex marriage appears there. Is this a trench the Right wish to fight in? If so, it could become the next fox hunting, turning away otherwise natural Tory leaning voters.
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
Many people are struggling, some corporate behaviour is disgraceful, but there are a great many people whose experience is different. After all, 63% do own their own homes, median household wealth is £278,000, many people enjoy well-paid employment, or self-employment. Not all of them are Conservatives by any means, but someone is keeping Conservative support at 40%+.
Jeremy Corbyn.
But it is also true that older people (50+) are generally doing pretty well. If you managed to buy a property in the last century you are sitting pretty.
And anyway, the Tories took us into Europe and Thatcher created the SM.
Bonkers.
It's conserving our democracy. It's conserving our control. It's conserving our ability to eject the people who write and control our laws. It's conserving our freedom.
Interesting that same sex marriage appears there. Is this a trench the Right wish to fight in? If so, it could become the next fox hunting, turning away otherwise natural Tory leaning voters.
Utterly unacceptable. Hard right are just as bad as hard left
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
I think Brexit has robbed the Conservatives of their main brand value of being the sensible party. We can do without vision but competence but less so. Its problem is that it can't admit to the real position, which is that the government is stuck with a policy that no-one who knew what they were doing would ever adopt and it's all about damage limitation. The party can't admit to the true situation because most of its supporters voted the policy. So Brexit becomes an all devouring monster
On unemployment, the Conservatives are level-pegging with Labour, which is unheard of in my lifetime.
The economy has structural problems. We've managed to avoid mass unemployment through the creation of a gig economy where shit jobs offer shit security and shit wages. You have a job, vote Conservative say the Tories. But the job is short term, insecure, doesn't pay the bills. And where is the person living? In private sector rental where a lot of properties are shit but rent is sky high with agencies taking fat fees and deposits that don't come back and tenancies that aren't secure and can be very short term.
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
Many people are struggling, some corporate behaviour is disgraceful, but there are a great many people whose experience is different. After all, 63% do own their own homes, median household wealth is £278,000, many people enjoy well-paid employment, or self-employment. Not all of them are Conservatives by any means, but someone is keeping Conservative support at 40%+.
Jeremy Corbyn.
But it is also true that older people (50+) are generally doing pretty well. If you managed to buy a property in the last century you are sitting pretty.
My wife and I have five kids, my extended family runs to around another dozen. All thriving, all under the age of 26, and none of them born with a silver spoon in their mouths - and less than half are graduates. My daughter has just (within the last month) bought her first house, with no help from us (well, we did buy her a new hoover). On the other hand, I know an increasing number of silver renters, who are going to have a fucking awful retirement - multiple divorces have swallowed their capital, and their pensions are sequestrated too. It's not as neat a demographic picture as we like to portray.
The working time and working at height directives actually save people's lives. If that is a 'cost to business' then it is a cost worth paying.
95% of EU rules and regs are well thought out, useful, and a societal good.
4.5% are poorly thought out but don't really impact anything.
0.5% are just bad.
The assumption that these ratios will be any better under complete UK control is nonsense, of course. I suppose the argument is "ah, but those are OUR bad regulations". It's not a very good one.
Interesting that same sex marriage appears there. Is this a trench the Right wish to fight in? If so, it could become the next fox hunting, turning away otherwise natural Tory leaning voters.
Utterly unacceptable. Hard right are just as bad as hard left
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
Well done Shaun Bailey, the most charismatic of the 3 Tory candidates who can connect with Londoners from all walks of life and it is good the Tories now have a BME candidate for London Mayor in an increasingly BME city
Labour has the ideas, the Tories have the poll leads. The country is in a mess. It is hard to see how we get out of this. It could be that we need to see Brexit through to its final and logical conclusion: the break-up of the UK. The English - right and left - need to understand that we do not matter that much anymore and then we need to accept that. All delusions have to be destroyed before the rebuilding can begin.
Even on its own without Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland England would be the 7th largest economy in the world
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
No deal is the default position - it will happen automatically on 29 March next year unless both sides take action to stop it. A vote in parliament cannot prevent no deal - the EU would have to agree.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Well done Shaun Bailey, the most charismatic of the 3 Tory candidates who can connect with Londoners from all walks of life and it is good the Tories now have a BME candidate for London Mayor in an increasingly BME city
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
I think Brexit has robbed the Conservatives of their main brand value of being the sensible party. We can do without vision but competence but less so. Its problem is that it can't admit to the real position, which is that the government is stuck with a policy that no-one who knew what they were doing would ever adopt and it's all about damage limitation. The party can't admit to the true situation because most of its supporters voted the policy. So Brexit becomes an all devouring monster
Brexit has definitely reduced the Conservatives of their main redeeming feature, just as Corbyn seems hell bent on removing Labour's.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
I think the most compelling argument I heard on getting a deal was the geopolitical situation. Can't remember whether it was on PB or elsewhere.
NATO looking frail; the US retreating into isolationism and protectionism; the Russians trolling the world and expanding their sphere of influence; Turkey turning into an Islamic dictatorship. The UK has the strongest armed forces in Europe (no laughing at the back), the best intelligence apparatus, and (diminished) influence in the US. The motivation for the Baltics and E. Europe to keep us on board it strong.
The Telegraph (Boris own mouthpiece) has a go at Hammond. Nothing new
Nelson isn't really Telegraph though. He is speccie editor.
Anyway he is right, the Tories look like they have run out of ideas and are heading for defeat if they don't stop fighting each other and face the Labour party.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Hammond is a dull accountant and has no political acumen. He does need replacing but likely to happen if and when TM goes. Javid/ Gove is my dream team
I disagree that the Tory problem is Brexit. When was the last time we heard anyone - even the much vaunted Gove - make an inspiring, visionary speech about how the Conservatives will build a 21st century UK? Of course, there are platitudes a-plenty, but they are cross-party, don't you think? 'We will make Britain a better, fairer, more prosperous country' could be dribbled out by any rosette wearing donkey.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion. Sure, the polls are level pegging, but the base (and I'm part of her base) are just not enthused in the same way Labour supporters are. I suspect they are going to struggle to GOTV on election day.
I think Brexit has robbed the Conservatives of their main brand value of being the sensible party. We can do without vision but competence but less so. Its problem is that it can't admit to the real position, which is that the government is stuck with a policy that no-one who knew what they were doing would ever adopt and it's all about damage limitation. The party can't admit to the true situation because most of its supporters voted the policy. So Brexit becomes an all devouring monster
Brexit has definitely reduced the Conservatives of their main redeeming feature, just as Corbyn seems hell bent on removing Labour's.
And yet it does not show in the polling
The 6% you gov lead may be an outlier but they did ok in last nights locals taking a seat from labour
We are in extraordinary political impasse but something has to give by March or even in the next couple of months
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
That requires that enough Conservative and DUP MPs agree to no-confidence their own side, and repeat that for a full fortnight. This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering - Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate - Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
I think that UK has no choice now. The No-Deal shambles is needed to burn the stupidity out of our political system. The little-Englanders need to face the reality of Brexit and if we get Corbyn the country will not forget the shambles he will create.
Hopefully the UK will recover in a couple of decades ...
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Why? She is going get fucked off by the tories ASAP after Brexit. The party doesn't particularly care for anything she tries to say on the subject of Brexit so I highly doubt they have any appetite for her post Brexit vision.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
But the referendum here is to be held prior to crashing out, not used as a national lifeboat after the good ship GB has sank.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
How is she going to do that when no one has a clue what Brexit means or even if it will happen at all?
With no unified party behind her, anything she says is meaningless because a significant fraction of her party base will not agree with her.
She has to rise above it.
What difference will that make? A shambles is a shambles whether viewed from ground level or higher up.
She needs to confront reality which is that Brexit is a disaster. Maybe if she says so in her Leader's speech then we might actually get some meaningful debate, but this dancing around pretending not to notice the mess will simply not do.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
I very much doubt it. Also a GE is unlikely to change the dynamics. Several labour spokespeople have said that if there is an earlier GE they will not include a second referendum in their manifesto
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
I think Brexit has robbed the Conservatives of their main brand value of being the sensible party. We can do without vision but competence but less so. Its problem is that it can't admit to the real position, which is that the government is stuck with a policy that no-one who knew what they were doing would ever adopt and it's all about damage limitation. The party can't admit to the true situation because most of its supporters voted the policy. So Brexit becomes an all devouring monster
Brexit has definitely reduced the Conservatives of their main redeeming feature, just as Corbyn seems hell bent on removing Labour's.
And yet it does not show in the polling
The 6% you gov lead may be an outlier but they did ok in last nights locals taking a seat from labour
We are in extraordinary political impasse but something has to give by March or even in the next couple of months
I fear this is to do with the ideological distance between the parties and the lack of a credible third option (I'm look at you, Vince).
Attributing it to the Tories not-being-actually-that-bad is a bit tenuous, to my mind.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour have just voted overwhelmingly for a second referendum which Starmer made clear would include Remain, the EEA supporting Tories would be enough to ensure it gets through Parliament.
Plus of course every opposition and backbench motion would be EUref2 faced with the prospect of No Deal and Soubry and Grieve etc would filibuster and vote with Labour to paralyse the government so it could not get any legislation through until a second EU referendum was granted, if necessary they may even no confidence the government to force a general election rather than accept no deal with no second EU referendum
That requires that enough Conservative and DUP MPs agree to no-confidence their own side, and repeat that for a full fortnight. This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering - Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate - Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
We're heading within weeks to stalemate. Unable to get a deal. Mandated to avoid the consequence of not getting a deal. As no deal becomes more likely and the date gets closer, details of exactly how fucked we will be is all you will get on the news. Yes there are quite a number of people saying "no deal" but for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?
Tory MPs aren't all stupid. Being stuck in office but powerless as the UK floats towards the abyss is not something the party will be rewarded for later. So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death.
Indeed, Rockwell included himself in the scene, the older guy sitting on the woman's left.
In Britain there would presumably be a majority verdict rather than a holdout.
He also seems to have included Jordan Peterson behind her. No doubt telling her that she has chaotic energy and that he doesn't know how to deal with her because he can't hit her
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
He was referring to conservative mps vnoc in TM. Not for the government to collapse
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
No, they'd move us back 6 months from the cliff and watch the whole sorry drama continue to play out.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Interesting that same sex marriage appears there. Is this a trench the Right wish to fight in? If so, it could become the next fox hunting, turning away otherwise natural Tory leaning voters.
When driving by you’ll see a poster of Nicky Morgan, lots of blue and words Conservative. It doesn’t seem a very well thought through effort.
On your point, I don’t see that as a Conservative point. It’s UKIP point to appeal to, well, UKIP voters. Its’s not exactly in tune with those (overrrepresented here) who see Brexit as the triumph of liberal thought.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
But the referendum here is to be held prior to crashing out, not used as a national lifeboat after the good ship GB has sank.
Ah. I was talking about the latter scenario. If talks collapse in November then a second referendum COULD happen (or at least be organised) between then and next March, but that's more tenuous
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
But the referendum here is to be held prior to crashing out, not used as a national lifeboat after the good ship GB has sank.
A plausible sequence of events would see the UK heading for no deal in Jan/Feb next year, supermarkets would begin to warn of disruption to food supplies and airlines would start cancelling flights. This would lead to panic buying and a sterling crisis. As the end of March approached and the crisis grew public pressure would force MPs to send whoever is in government by then to ask the EU for a short extension of the UKs membership to allow a new referendum to be held. The choice would then be remain or continuation of the crash. The EU would not offer any other options.
Labour have just voted overwhelmingly for a second referendum which Starmer made clear would include Remain, the EEA supporting Tories would be enough to ensure it gets through Parliament.
I have a bridge to sell you.
Starmer sneaked it into his speech against the wishes of the Politburo, and was then flatly contradicted by speaker after speaker.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Labour have explicity ruled out a second referendum in a GE manifesto
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
The fail in the logic is a belief that May can't get a deal through parliament. In order to get a vote on a deal in Parliament she has to have a bill go through Parliament that offers 'the Deal she has negotiated'
There is no imperative that she has to have Tory backing for it, or I suspect full Cabinet support for it. She only has to be able to set the legislative process in train. Once that is done Parliament has no option but to vote for it or against it with the consequences of voting against it.
Parliament may amend it, but I expect Parliament will be told that amendments will make it unacceptable to the negotiating partner and the deal will be off and WTO is default in that instance.
The only way she can't get Parliament to vote on a deal is if she can't get the legislative process started. I am not sure what she needs to do that, but it isn't the full support of Party or Cabinet, I suspect.
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
he wants 9p cut off income tax, buisnness rates slashed all paid for by a land tax but not on agricultural land and hasnt ruled out some kind of coalition with any parties after 2021
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Not sure suggesting the EU will force us into something is a very wise comment to be honest
That requires that enough Conservative and DUP MPs agree to no-confidence their own side, and repeat that for a full fortnight. This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering - Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate - Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
We're heading within weeks to stalemate. Unable to get a deal. Mandated to avoid the consequence of not getting a deal. As no deal becomes more likely and the date gets closer, details of exactly how fucked we will be is all you will get on the news. Yes there are quite a number of people saying "no deal" but for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?
Tory MPs aren't all stupid. Being stuck in office but powerless as the UK floats towards the abyss is not something the party will be rewarded for later. So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death.
It still feels like the path of least resistance is that TMay signs terms of surrender reaches a win-win deal with the EU and Tory MPs vote it through. It should be pretty clear by now to even the dimmest of them that Boris and friends don't have any actual practical ideas to avoid setting everything on fire, they'd have to be feeling extremely lucky to light the blue touch paper.
Comments
1. Brexit. Can't agree on anything beyond that they don't agree, and is seriously pissing off rank and file members who won't be as active campaigning, AND is seriously pissing off rank and file Tory voters who won't be as keen to turn out. The prefect GOTV storm is brewing
2. The economy. On paper the Tories think they are doing a fantastic Job. Extra jobs created in Mansfield so Labour are LYING someone said down thread. But if things are so marvellous why did the Tories lose their majority and lose the Brexit referendum? We're spending more on health and education but people are complaining they moan, why aren't they grateful? Well see that expensive marketisation structure you created to make things like CCGs and Academy Chains? They are hoovering up cash from the front line at a rate of knots. And even Tory voters in Tory council areas aren't stupid enough to not realise that services are being cut to the bone and Tory councils going bust because of massive Tory cuts.
Take both factors - pissed off voters not called on by pissed off activists, AND issues that are real being ignored by Tory politicians - and the Tories are in real trouble. Corbyn may be offering some fruity solutions to these issues which makes people uneasy. But at least he is offering solutions. At least he is recognising the problems.
Tories need a narrative and quickly.
https://twitter.com/Labourpaul/status/1045383537120215041
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Here is an interesting article for you on Honda and wto brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/18/honda-no-deal-brexit-tariffs-swindon
Its a job. Its a house. Its economic activity. But its insecure, feel bad, short term. People feel crap. And they aren't blind and stupid - they know that someone is profiteering off their shit existence. Being told "everything is great" when it isn't going to keep people voting Conservative, and Tory activists really need to open their eyes and see how people actually live rather than burying their heads in the stats and spreadsheets which say everything is great.
Or better still, don't. Corbyn - and Milliband before him - is busy moving the Overton window to the left by leading with ideas to problems that Tories don't believe exist. Not having solutions is bad, not accepting that solutions are needed is straight delusion...
If May calls a second referendum, she'll lose circa 1/3rd of her vote, 2/3rds of her party, and 75% of her activist base.
Other than the usual cut tax, regulations and privatise, which are not exactly new ideas or particularly in vogue at the moment?
I am supportive of TM but I am not blind to her flaws or even Hammond's dull personna.
As soon as possible from April 2019 she needs to stand down and announce a proper succession election continuing as caretaker PM until that has concluded.
The new PM then needs a new cabinet and to replace Hammond and consign Grayling to the back benches forever
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/no-deal-brexit-food-drink-retailers-cost-billions-barclays-a8556506.html
How is leaving the EU conserving anything?
And anyway, the Tories took us into Europe and Thatcher created the SM.
Bonkers.
Funny how those who consider themselves liberal, & pretend to like open debate shut it down when they find their ideas being disagreed with
Poor from Andy Wigmore though.. "help us deselected this remoaning....", does nobody proof read anymore?
Deal expected ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6218403/Syrian-man-21-arrested-Berlin-plotting-chemical-attack-Israel-behalf-ISIS.html
The Budget on 29/10 is going to be a critical event in terms of seeing how much Hammond's largesse extends to providing extra funding for County Councils in particular to meet rising costs for the provision of social care for adults and vulnerable children.
The end of two-tier local Government provision is happening whether Counties and Districts like it or not and as County authorities succumb to budget pressures the pressure to combine functions is going to be irresistible.
As an aside, I'm puzzled why a Conservative Government isn't more interested in reducing the debt as well as the deficit. I realise we may have the debt at historically very favourable rates so the pressure to overpay and reduce isn't that strong but if we can spare some to repay more now (instead of tax cuts) we will be reducing the burden on future generations and I thought inheritance and thinking of the future were key Conservative attributes.
https://twitter.com/MattWhittakerRF/status/1045630000379187200
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/28/italian-markets-plunge-populists-win-battle-splurge-costly-budget/
But it is also true that older people (50+) are generally doing pretty well. If you managed to buy a property in the last century you are sitting pretty.
It's conserving our control.
It's conserving our ability to eject the people who write and control our laws.
It's conserving our freedom.
FFS Telegraph, you used to be a decent paper once upon a time.
4.5% are poorly thought out but don't really impact anything.
0.5% are just bad.
The assumption that these ratios will be any better under complete UK control is nonsense, of course. I suppose the argument is "ah, but those are OUR bad regulations". It's not a very good one.
Though in general I do think the prospect of a crash-out is not priced in - a run on sterling would be likely to add to the fun if that happens.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal.
To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
With no unified party behind her, anything she says is meaningless because a significant fraction of her party base will not agree with her.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
NATO looking frail; the US retreating into isolationism and protectionism; the Russians trolling the world and expanding their sphere of influence; Turkey turning into an Islamic dictatorship. The UK has the strongest armed forces in Europe (no laughing at the back), the best intelligence apparatus, and (diminished) influence in the US. The motivation for the Baltics and E. Europe to keep us on board it strong.
Strong enough? I hope so.
The 6% you gov lead may be an outlier but they did ok in last nights locals taking a seat from labour
We are in extraordinary political impasse but something has to give by March or even in the next couple of months
This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering
- Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate
- Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
Hopefully the UK will recover in a couple of decades ...
She needs to confront reality which is that Brexit is a disaster. Maybe if she says so in her Leader's speech then we might actually get some meaningful debate, but this dancing around pretending not to notice the mess will simply not do.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
Attributing it to the Tories not-being-actually-that-bad is a bit tenuous, to my mind.
Plus of course every opposition and backbench motion would be EUref2 faced with the prospect of No Deal and Soubry and Grieve etc would filibuster and vote with Labour to paralyse the government so it could not get any legislation through until a second EU referendum was granted, if necessary they may even no confidence the government to force a general election rather than accept no deal with no second EU referendum
Tory MPs aren't all stupid. Being stuck in office but powerless as the UK floats towards the abyss is not something the party will be rewarded for later. So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death.
On your point, I don’t see that as a Conservative point. It’s UKIP point to appeal to, well, UKIP voters. Its’s not exactly in tune with those (overrrepresented here) who see Brexit as the triumph of liberal thought.
Starmer sneaked it into his speech against the wishes of the Politburo, and was then flatly contradicted by speaker after speaker.
There is no imperative that she has to have Tory backing for it, or I suspect full Cabinet support for it. She only has to be able to set the legislative process in train. Once that is done Parliament has no option but to vote for it or against it with the consequences of voting against it.
Parliament may amend it, but I expect Parliament will be told that amendments will make it unacceptable to the negotiating partner and the deal will be off and WTO is default in that instance.
The only way she can't get Parliament to vote on a deal is if she can't get the legislative process started. I am not sure what she needs to do that, but it isn't the full support of Party or Cabinet, I suspect.