Just watching the new PC leader for the first time. Looks like an energetic tubthumper targetting mainstream policy positions. My first impression: he could make inroads. Any thoughts?
Am hearing much about Tories need a positive narrative, which is true. But would anyone care to venture what it might be? Other than the usual cut tax, regulations and privatise, which are not exactly new ideas or particularly in vogue at the moment?
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
he wants 9p cut off income tax, buisnness rates slashed all paid for by a land tax but not on agricultural land and hasnt ruled out some kind of coalition with any parties after 2021
He could work with the Tories in the Assembly unlike Wood
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
Why? She is going get fucked off by the tories ASAP after Brexit. The party doesn't particularly care for anything she tries to say on the subject of Brexit so I highly doubt they have any appetite for her post Brexit vision.
Why do you persist making your arguments with unnecessary language. Outside of that I do agree with your narrative but she is PM and she has to address the Country at large in her conference speech
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Labour have explicity ruled out a second referendum in a GE manifesto
"All options are open" means just that. ALL options.
Labour have just voted overwhelmingly for a second referendum which Starmer made clear would include Remain, the EEA supporting Tories would be enough to ensure it gets through Parliament.
I have a bridge to sell you.
Starmer sneaked it into his speech against the wishes of the Politburo, and was then flatly contradicted by speaker after speaker.
Over 80% of Labour members want a second referendum and the conference vote gave them a mandate for it and most Labour backbenchers would vote for one as would the LDs and probably the SNP, pro EEA Tories would also vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal giving it a Commons majority
That requires that enough Conservative and DUP MPs agree to no-confidence their own side, and repeat that for a full fortnight. This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering - Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate - Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
We're heading within weeks to stalemate. Unable to get a deal. Mandated to avoid the consequence of not getting a deal. As no deal becomes more likely and the date gets closer, details of exactly how fucked we will be is all you will get on the news. Yes there are quite a number of people saying "no deal" but for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?
Tory MPs aren't all stupid. Being stuck in office but powerless as the UK floats towards the abyss is not something the party will be rewarded for later. So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death.
I'd like for that to be true, but in my experience, the answers are:
"for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?" - until it actually happens. Never underestimate the ability of the human mind to rationalise what we want to be true.
"So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death." - those who believe a third referendum is anathema, or that they'll be punished by the electorate for "betraying Brexit", or who decide a slow death is preferable to a quick one, or who rate Party loyalty higher than anything else, or who fear a Corbyn government more than anything else will, I feel, be a large enough proportion to prevent this happening.
When all options look really really bad, human nature is to freeze and do nothing.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Not sure suggesting the EU will force us into something is a very wise comment to be honest
Here's a rope to get you out of the crocodile-infested quicksand. It's the only rope we're offering you. Not forcing you to take it. Entirely up to you.
I think the most compelling argument I heard on getting a deal was the geopolitical situation. Can't remember whether it was on PB or elsewhere.
NATO looking frail; the US retreating into isolationism and protectionism; the Russians trolling the world and expanding their sphere of influence; Turkey turning into an Islamic dictatorship. The UK has the strongest armed forces in Europe (no laughing at the back), the best intelligence apparatus, and (diminished) influence in the US. The motivation for the Baltics and E. Europe to keep us on board it strong.
Strong enough? I hope so.
This is a very important point. Security is a key reason for the EU wanting a deal with the UK. If no deal becomes reality and by some sequence of events Corbyn becomes PM the EU will simply not get the same security commitment as it would with the Tories in power.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Not sure suggesting the EU will force us into something is a very wise comment to be honest
Here's a rope to get you out of the crocodile-infested quicksand. It's the only rope we're offering you. Not forcing you to take it. Entirely up to you.
Yes - that is more or less the reality of the situation.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Right, so you add that to the 5 to 10 Labour rebels who would defy Corbyn to vote for a second referendum, plus the LibDems and sundry Nats and they're only about 250 MPs short...
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Holy smoke this is a bad video from Plaid. Looks like a sixth-form project completed at 3am. Who the hell thought that music was a good idea? And WTF happens to the sound at 1:10? 2/10 see me after class. https://twitter.com/Plaid_Cymru/status/1045639250614603776
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
We will do whatever deal the EU thinks we should do. As several posters have pointed out, Parliament won't allow a no deal. Well if they won't allow a no deal there are only so many options available and none of them can occur without the EU's say so.
Now, in a sane world (ha haha hahahaha hahahahahaha) there will have been plenty of back channel negotiations between us and the EU and the final deal will reflect that fact and somehow a rabbit will be pulled out of the hat based upon Chequers.
If not, if there was no pre-approving or kite flying and we really did hammer out Chequers at the bottom of a well, then we sadly are at the mercy of whatever the EU deigns to grant us. Where this leads to UK govt-wise, I'm not sure. Every day Cons should give thanks for the FPTA.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
That requires that enough Conservative and DUP MPs agree to no-confidence their own side, and repeat that for a full fortnight. This may be possible, but it does seem to be rather glossed over. Who, on the Conservative benches, would vote for an election that would have one of the following outcomes:
- Repeat and reinforce whatever deal the Conservatives are offering - Put Corbyn into power to administer whatever Brexit he feels appropriate - Splinter Parliament sufficiently that not only can no deal still get through, but the country could be ungovernable
We're heading within weeks to stalemate. Unable to get a deal. Mandated to avoid the consequence of not getting a deal. As no deal becomes more likely and the date gets closer, details of exactly how fucked we will be is all you will get on the news. Yes there are quite a number of people saying "no deal" but for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?
Tory MPs aren't all stupid. Being stuck in office but powerless as the UK floats towards the abyss is not something the party will be rewarded for later. So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death.
I'd like for that to be true, but in my experience, the answers are:
"for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?" - until it actually happens. Never underestimate the ability of the human mind to rationalise what we want to be true.
"So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death." - those who believe a third referendum is anathema, or that they'll be punished by the electorate for "betraying Brexit", or who decide a slow death is preferable to a quick one, or who rate Party loyalty higher than anything else, or who fear a Corbyn government more than anything else will, I feel, be a large enough proportion to prevent this happening.
When all options look really really bad, human nature is to freeze and do nothing.
Pro EEA Tories are the Commons swing voters, they will vote for EUref2 over No Deal Brexit, maybe even a general election
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Why would Corbyn vote for the "neoliberal" EEA? If there's no deal and it's catastrophic, the Tories will carry the can. Oh, they'll point fingers and there would be shouting about how the Opposition made them do it and everything would have worked if they hadn't been opposed, but the vast majority of the populace don't care about the ins and outs. Hell, there was a survey showing that nearly 20% of the population didn't know who was leading the Conservative Party just a couple of weeks prior to the 2017 General Election.
If it's catastrophic, it's easier to sweep away the fragments of the old order for his new order.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Labour members took that guy from the Free Palestine marches who hasn't updated his political opinions since 1972 and made him leader of their party, Labour isn't going to hold off doing something just because it's preposterous.
I'd also like to throw into the pot the looming crisis in local Government funding.
The Budget on 29/10 is going to be a critical event in terms of seeing how much Hammond's largesse extends to providing extra funding for County Councils in particular to meet rising costs for the provision of social care for adults and vulnerable children.
The end of two-tier local Government provision is happening whether Counties and Districts like it or not and as County authorities succumb to budget pressures the pressure to combine functions is going to be irresistible.
As an aside, I'm puzzled why a Conservative Government isn't more interested in reducing the debt as well as the deficit. I realise we may have the debt at historically very favourable rates so the pressure to overpay and reduce isn't that strong but if we can spare some to repay more now (instead of tax cuts) we will be reducing the burden on future generations and I thought inheritance and thinking of the future were key Conservative attributes.
The National Debt is not particularly high in historical terms - in terms of Debt/GDP ratio no higher than in the mid-1960s. The greater threat to economic stability comes from the high level of Private Sector Debt should interest rates increase significantly.
If the Brexit vote had been 65-35, I could see the sense in going for a Canada-type arrangement. But since the vote was close, it seems more logical that Britain should be looking at a Swiss or Norway deal, to reflect the average opinion of the populace.
Brexit is taking all the bandwidth. It is imperative that TM paints a post Brexit vision next Wednesday
How is she going to do that when no one has a clue what Brexit means or even if it will happen at all?
With no unified party behind her, anything she says is meaningless because a significant fraction of her party base will not agree with her.
The next election, like the last one, will be determined on domestic priorities. Brexit is not particularly important there. 'Post-Brexit' is more meaningful as a political era than as a national one: it's not about the opportunities that Brexit open up or close off; it's about the bandwidth that opens up for the government / party leadership to concentrate on other issues.
If the Brexit vote had been 65-35, I could see the sense in going for a Canada-type arrangement. But since the vote was close, it seems more logical that Britain should be looking at a Swiss or Norway deal, to reflect the average opinion of the populace.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
Labour would certainly allow remain to be on it. In the circumstances of a crisis crash-out it would be preposterous not to have a remain option. And anyway, there would probably not be any other options to offer. The EU would force us to decide between remain and the cliff edge.
Labour have explicity ruled out a second referendum in a GE manifesto
"All options are open" means just that. ALL options.
No not all options. No referendum in a GE manifesto. I think you need to listen to the dear leader, those around him, Wales First Minister and Stephen Kinnock - no referendum
Holy smoke this is a bad video from Plaid. Looks like a sixth-form project completed at 3am. Who the hell thought that music was a good idea? And WTF happens to the sound at 1:10? 2/10 see me after class. https://twitter.com/Plaid_Cymru/status/1045639250614603776
The gap in the sound is probably were they put a fade to allow them to edit a bit of music or voice out, but it was cack-handed to say the least.
I have shot better quality video on a mobile phone. I wonder what they used? And why not blend in the voice / speeches /events? I would have used those to mask the audio gap.
The fail in the logic is a belief that May can't get a deal through parliament. In order to get a vote on a deal in Parliament she has to have a bill go through Parliament that offers 'the Deal she has negotiated'
There is no imperative that she has to have Tory backing for it, or I suspect full Cabinet support for it. She only has to be able to set the legislative process in train. Once that is done Parliament has no option but to vote for it or against it with the consequences of voting against it.
Parliament may amend it, but I expect Parliament will be told that amendments will make it unacceptable to the negotiating partner and the deal will be off and WTO is default in that instance.
The only way she can't get Parliament to vote on a deal is if she can't get the legislative process started. I am not sure what she needs to do that, but it isn't the full support of Party or Cabinet, I suspect.
She can't get a deal through parliament because she has already ruled out the potential deals she can get. MPs aren't to waste any more time debating and voting on proposals like Chequers which are dead in the water. Our options are very few now, and I don't see a majority in the Commons to back Norway, or back temporary Norway with the hope of CETA later, or back remain, or back no deal crash out. None of those are getting passed.
If the Brexit vote had been 65-35, I could see the sense in going for a Canada-type arrangement. But since the vote was close, it seems more logical that Britain should be looking at a Swiss or Norway deal, to reflect the average opinion of the populace.
The problem with standing in the middle of the road is that you risk getting run over from either direction.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Why would Corbyn vote for the "neoliberal" EEA? If there's no deal and it's catastrophic, the Tories will carry the can. Oh, they'll point fingers and there would be shouting about how the Opposition made them do it and everything would have worked if they hadn't been opposed, but the vast majority of the populace don't care about the ins and outs. Hell, there was a survey showing that nearly 20% of the population didn't know who was leading the Conservative Party just a couple of weeks prior to the 2017 General Election.
If it's catastrophic, it's easier to sweep away the fragments of the old order for his new order.
Where's the downside for him?
On Sunday Corbyn said he would accept Labour members vote for a second EU referendum but he would prefer another general election. Even without Corbyn Labour anti No Deal backbenchers plus pro EEA Tories plus LDs plus SNP are more than enough to force EUref2 through faced with No Deal.
The fail in the logic is a belief that May can't get a deal through parliament. In order to get a vote on a deal in Parliament she has to have a bill go through Parliament that offers 'the Deal she has negotiated'
There is no imperative that she has to have Tory backing for it, or I suspect full Cabinet support for it. She only has to be able to set the legislative process in train. Once that is done Parliament has no option but to vote for it or against it with the consequences of voting against it.
Parliament may amend it, but I expect Parliament will be told that amendments will make it unacceptable to the negotiating partner and the deal will be off and WTO is default in that instance.
The only way she can't get Parliament to vote on a deal is if she can't get the legislative process started. I am not sure what she needs to do that, but it isn't the full support of Party or Cabinet, I suspect.
She can't get a deal through parliament because she has already ruled out the potential deals she can get. MPs aren't to waste any more time debating and voting on proposals like Chequers which are dead in the water. Our options are very few now, and I don't see a majority in the Commons to back Norway, or back temporary Norway with the hope of CETA later, or back remain, or back no deal crash out. None of those are getting passed.
We're a week down the line from Salzberg; according to reports, she has another two at most before they chuck Chequers. I don't she how she survives that, to be honest.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Why would Corbyn vote for the "neoliberal" EEA? If there's no deal and it's catastrophic, the Tories will carry the can. Oh, they'll point fingers and there would be shouting about how the Opposition made them do it and everything would have worked if they hadn't been opposed, but the vast majority of the populace don't care about the ins and outs. Hell, there was a survey showing that nearly 20% of the population didn't know who was leading the Conservative Party just a couple of weeks prior to the 2017 General Election.
If it's catastrophic, it's easier to sweep away the fragments of the old order for his new order.
Where's the downside for him?
Plus Corbyn lumbered as PM with No Deal and almost certainly propped up by minor parties destroys his premiership from day 1 as he has to spend the rest of it caving into Brussels
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
But no Tory MP will vote against the Government on a Confidence Vote. To do so would mean deselection.
I think the most compelling argument I heard on getting a deal was the geopolitical situation. Can't remember whether it was on PB or elsewhere.
NATO looking frail; the US retreating into isolationism and protectionism; the Russians trolling the world and expanding their sphere of influence; Turkey turning into an Islamic dictatorship. The UK has the strongest armed forces in Europe (no laughing at the back), the best intelligence apparatus, and (diminished) influence in the US. The motivation for the Baltics and E. Europe to keep us on board it strong.
Strong enough? I hope so.
This is a very important point. Security is a key reason for the EU wanting a deal with the UK. If no deal becomes reality and by some sequence of events Corbyn becomes PM the EU will simply not get the same security commitment as it would with the Tories in power.
Probably not true. A Corbyn government would be more anti-Trump and more pro-EU than any likely Tory government. I think the EU would see neither as ideal, frankly, but Labour is simply less neuralgic on all things European.
Pro EEA Tories are the Commons swing voters, they will vote for EUref2 over No Deal Brexit, maybe even a general election
They may be the Commons swing voters but they're not the Tory Party swing voters. In order for EUref2 to occur it needs both the backing of a majority of the Commons and the government. The first is a necessary but not sufficient condition.
If there's no deal May's future will largely depend upon how she reacts but more importantly WHY there is no deal. If there's no deal because May won't make one but the cabinet believes they can then she will be out and replaced as quick as Howard was. Expect someone like Hunt to be the unity candidate in that scenario.
Plus Corbyn lumbered as PM with No Deal and almost certainly propped up by minor parties destroys his premiership from day 1 as he has to spend the rest of it caving into Brussels
He's 83. What's his other option? He'll take PM absolutely anyway he can get it. 2nd ref, no deal Brexit, 32 country referendum in Ireland. He'll do whatever it takes.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
But no Tory MP will vote against the Government on a Confidence Vote. To do so would mean deselection.
Indeed.
We're at an almost perfect constitutional stalemate.
I think the most compelling argument I heard on getting a deal was the geopolitical situation. Can't remember whether it was on PB or elsewhere.
NATO looking frail; the US retreating into isolationism and protectionism; the Russians trolling the world and expanding their sphere of influence; Turkey turning into an Islamic dictatorship. The UK has the strongest armed forces in Europe (no laughing at the back), the best intelligence apparatus, and (diminished) influence in the US. The motivation for the Baltics and E. Europe to keep us on board it strong.
Strong enough? I hope so.
This is a very important point. Security is a key reason for the EU wanting a deal with the UK. If no deal becomes reality and by some sequence of events Corbyn becomes PM the EU will simply not get the same security commitment as it would with the Tories in power.
Probably not true. A Corbyn government would be more anti-Trump and more pro-EU than any likely Tory government. I think the EU would see neither as ideal, frankly, but Labour is simply less neuralgic on all things European.
Come off it Nick. If the Russians started to menace the Baltic states Corbyn would do nothing.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
I'm not sure how "Parliament won't vote for No Deal" works out.
No deal is what you get if you don't get a deal. To avoid No Deal, Parliament has to vote for a specific deal, and I can't see what that deal would be. If they don't vote for a specific deal, we get no deal.
Indeed. This is the constitutional crisis we are now engaged in. May can't get a deal through her own cabinet never mind her MPs never mind the Commons. Which means no deal as the default option. BUT, the same arguing MPs aren't stupid enough to allow no deal to happen. So they'll vote to mandate the government to not accept no deal.
As the government has ruled out all of the options to avoid no deal, and is mandated by the Commons to not allow no deal to happen, the government must fall. As HYUFD points out, once we stare down the barrel of crash Brexit there are enough MPs to agree that they do not have confidence in HMG.
But no Tory MP will vote against the Government on a Confidence Vote. To do so would mean deselection.
They don't need to. They'd vote no confidence to the 1922 first. That need 50%+1 of Tories which would occur in a car crash no deal scenario. It might not occur in an organised no deal, a deal minimus.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Right, so you add that to the 5 to 10 Labour rebels who would defy Corbyn to vote for a second referendum, plus the LibDems and sundry Nats and they're only about 250 MPs short...
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Only if she recommends it
What else would she do and not be toppled?
In the circumstances the ERG cannot topple her so the cabinet would need to agree a position and act on it. And before you ask I do not know what the cabinet would recommmend
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
But the referendum here is to be held prior to crashing out, not used as a national lifeboat after the good ship GB has sank.
Ah. I was talking about the latter scenario. If talks collapse in November then a second referendum COULD happen (or at least be organised) between then and next March, but that's more tenuous
But that would require Legislation. Effectively only the Government can propose that.
This is a very important point. Security is a key reason for the EU wanting a deal with the UK. If no deal becomes reality and by some sequence of events Corbyn becomes PM the EU will simply not get the same security commitment as it would with the Tories in power.
Probably not true. A Corbyn government would be more anti-Trump and more pro-EU than any likely Tory government. I think the EU would see neither as ideal, frankly, but Labour is simply less neuralgic on all things European.
Come off it Nick. If the Russians started to menace the Baltic states Corbyn would do nothing.
He bloody would. He'd blame America and Tony Blair.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Only if she recommends it
What else would she do and not be toppled?
In the circumstances the ERG cannot topple her so the cabinet would need to agree a position and act on it. And before you ask I do not know what the cabinet would recommmend
The ERG alone can't but the cabinet can. Though the ERG wouldn't need to as their dream will be happening.
If the cabinet think May is the obstacle and they can make a deal they will do what they need to do. That's reasonable isn't it?
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
he wants 9p cut off income tax, buisnness rates slashed all paid for by a land tax but not on agricultural land and hasnt ruled out some kind of coalition with any parties after 2021
That sounds more likely to appeal to Tory - rather than Labour - voters.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
No Deal doesn't guarantee anything, especially if parliament isn't unable to agree on anything it wants to pass.
There can't be a huge number of pro-EEA Tories. As for Labour, Corbyn has been waiting his entire life for Capitalism to collapse on its own internal contradictions. He's not going to pass up a shot at Disaster Socialism with him as PM.
There are around 40 pro EEA Tory MPs who would vote with the opposition faced with No Deal
Right, so you add that to the 5 to 10 Labour rebels who would defy Corbyn to vote for a second referendum, plus the LibDems and sundry Nats and they're only about 250 MPs short...
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Not if Corbyn 3 line whips them to say no because they want an election instead.
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
I am not sure that the Opposition would get the opportunity to table any Legislation.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Only if she recommends it
What else would she do and not be toppled?
In the circumstances the ERG cannot topple her so the cabinet would need to agree a position and act on it. And before you ask I do not know what the cabinet would recommmend
The ERG alone can't but the cabinet can. Though the ERG wouldn't need to as their dream will be happening.
If the cabinet think May is the obstacle and they can make a deal they will do what they need to do. That's reasonable isn't it?
I actually agree with that. In the absence of a deal TM has to call her cabinet in emergency session and if they ask her to resign she would have no choice. If they decide to keep her in place they also need a cabinet position on the way forward that she has to follow
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Only if she recommends it
What else would she do and not be toppled?
In the circumstances the ERG cannot topple her so the cabinet would need to agree a position and act on it. And before you ask I do not know what the cabinet would recommmend
The ERG alone can't but the cabinet can. Though the ERG wouldn't need to as their dream will be happening.
If the cabinet think May is the obstacle and they can make a deal they will do what they need to do. That's reasonable isn't it?
Priorities for vast majority of Con MPs : Brexit > GE 2022 > everything else > Mrs May.
Come off it Nick. If the Russians started to menace the Baltic states Corbyn would do nothing.
No British PM of any hue is going to feed 16 Air Assault into the meatgrinder against the Russian army for the glittering prize of Tallinn. The only difference would be that Corbyn would be mildly chuffed to see the Baltics under the Russian heel again as it would signal the re-emergence of a multi-polar world.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
That may seem an obvious conclusion but taking out TM at the moment of biggest danger is not the best of ideas. It would pole-axe the markets and make UK investment outlook much worse.
However, if TM comes back with no deal and recommends it, I do think the majority of conservatives would seek her resignation and install an emergency unity leader, but not from ERG
May would likely be toppled if she came back with No Deal too
Only if she recommends it
What else would she do and not be toppled?
In the circumstances the ERG cannot topple her so the cabinet would need to agree a position and act on it. And before you ask I do not know what the cabinet would recommmend
The ERG alone can't but the cabinet can. Though the ERG wouldn't need to as their dream will be happening.
If the cabinet think May is the obstacle and they can make a deal they will do what they need to do. That's reasonable isn't it?
I actually agree with that. In the absence of a deal TM has to call her cabinet in emergency session and if they ask her to resign she would have no choice. If they decide to keep her in place they also need a cabinet position on the way forward that she has to follow
Agreed 100%.
Never underestimate the arrogance of the cabinet. Even if a deal is impossible they will think they could do better. What have they got to lose afterall?
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
Who exactly is going to put the EURef2 legislation forward, and when, and how? Just because there might be a majority for it doesn't mean it happens. And it's debatable as to whether there would be a majority anyway.
Wow! The Beto campaign feels a lot like the love bubble created by Jeremy Corbyn's election campaigns.Willie Nelson is playing in his support in Austin tomorrow which will be huge.GOP Willie fans who are part of the psychotic cult of Cruz and Trump are really "mad"-American version and mad too in the English version but they underestimate the cross party appeal of Willie whose fans are more pro-Willie,aka God,than pro GOP.The key test of Willie's significance in this election may only be judged by the record sales of Willie's new album,My Way,which is very good value at £9.99 at all good high-street record shops.The polls indicate it is winnable for the Dems in Texas-I'd say 5-4-and in a tight race Willie could just give Beto the edge.
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
I am not sure that the Opposition would get the opportunity to table any Legislation.
Right, and even if they did the practicalities of a second referendum - things like article 50 extensions - make it pretty much impossible to do anything without the help of the PM.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How many bloody times?!
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to. Parliament *cannot* stop No Deal other than by backing a deal (and only then if the EU actors back it too).
It may be that if May can't deliver an agreement then she will be brought down but where is the sweet spot for her successor - assuming there's time - to agree anything?
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
Who exactly is going to put the EURef2 legislation forward, and when, and how? Just because there might be a majority for it doesn't mean it happens. And it's debatable as to whether there would be a majority anyway.
Also correct. Basically parliament can't do anything except possibly reject a deal or bring down the government.
The only possible exception is for MPs to do a deal with the PM across party lines to cover losses she has on her side, and it's easy to see that happening in a lot of countries, but Britain isn't one of them: the party system is just too ingrained.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
I feel a thread header coming on - might be the shortest one in PB history. It would aid immensely the discussion about Brexit and the current political dynamic:
REMEMBER: The UK accounts for 6-10% of each individual EU member's exports while the EU accounts for nearly half of the UK's exports. IN ADDITION, the Labour Party wants to form a Labour government and is not in any way interested in supporting the current Conservative Government.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Whereas in Germany, you can vote for parties who get representation, but still end up with a CDU-led coalition in perpetuity. PR is not a panacea for a fragmenting, capricious electorate.
I didn't say it was a panacea I said it is a marked improvement
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
I warned against that poll yesterday. We need to see more over the next two weeks
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
These are difficult times with plenty of uncertainty.
Labour get to sit and shout from the sidelines about how bad the government is.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
It would be fascinating to see an updated version of the YouGov model that was so accurately predictive last time...
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
Who exactly is going to put the EURef2 legislation forward, and when, and how? Just because there might be a majority for it doesn't mean it happens. And it's debatable as to whether there would be a majority anyway.
Also correct. Basically parliament can't do anything except possibly reject a deal or bring down the government.
The only possible exception is for MPs to do a deal with the PM across party lines to cover losses she has on her side, and it's easy to see that happening in a lot of countries, but Britain isn't one of them: the party system is just too ingrained.
Even if that kind of arrangement was possible (and I agree - I don't think it is, as it'd mean Labour MPs going against their own leader and giving him and the NEC a wonderful opportunity to purge them should he/they so wish), the Labour MPs would have to sign up to it *before* May did that deal as otherwise the Con MPs or DUP would bring May down as soon as it was clear that she was going to deliver either a very soft Brexit or an internal UK border.
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
The language issue has always held back Plaid and I expect it to continue doing so.
Plus Corbyn lumbered as PM with No Deal and almost certainly propped up by minor parties destroys his premiership from day 1 as he has to spend the rest of it caving into Brussels
He's 83. What's his other option? He'll take PM absolutely anyway he can get it. 2nd ref, no deal Brexit, 32 country referendum in Ireland. He'll do whatever it takes.
Leave Nato, nationalise everything, end free press.... so many tasks so little time
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to.
Parliament not being able to stop No Deal doesn't make No Deal any more or less likely. Ultimately the EU27 and the PM have the power to extend the A50 deadline, which means No Deal would require an active decision on their part.
Who exactly is going to put the EURef2 legislation forward, and when, and how? Just because there might be a majority for it doesn't mean it happens. And it's debatable as to whether there would be a majority anyway.
If May proposed it, it would be politically impossible for Corbyn not to support it through gritted teeth, even if it did ruin his plans.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How many bloody times?!
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to. Parliament *cannot* stop No Deal other than by backing a deal (and only then if the EU actors back it too).
It may be that if May can't deliver an agreement then she will be brought down but where is the sweet spot for her successor - assuming there's time - to agree anything?
When 'No Deal' is about to happen, assuming that still nobody wants it to happen, the way out is a 'People's Vote' plus an extension. The extension is unlikely to be granted without the 'People's Vote'
I feel a thread header coming on - might be the shortest one in PB history. It would aid immensely the discussion about Brexit and the current political dynamic:
REMEMBER: The UK accounts for 6-10% of each individual EU member's exports while the EU accounts for nearly half of the UK's exports. IN ADDITION, the Labour Party wants to form a Labour government and is not in any way interested in supporting the current Conservative Government.
fin
It's almost like they're called "the Opposition" for a reason.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Whereas in Germany, you can vote for parties who get representation, but still end up with a CDU-led coalition in perpetuity. PR is not a panacea for a fragmenting, capricious electorate.
I didn't say it was a panacea I said it is a marked improvement
No, it's not. Ask the Belgians or Italians. The electoral system is a far less important factor than the political culture of a country, both in the electorate at large and in the political class.
That's not to say that FPTP is perfect - far from it - but the improvements it offers (to differing effects, depending on the system), have to be offset by its downsides. When the electorate and politicians are in a fractious mood - as now - PR makes a country essentially ungovernable.
Latest Democrat polling,probably more reliable than Lib-Dem bar charts,gives Dem leads in 3 red states ,4pt lead in Georgia,3pt lead in Arizona and 2pt lead in Texas and within a whisker of gaining Missouri and Indiana.These are huge swings.Maybe the mid-terms will be historic and Gettysburg for Trump and his evil psychopathic lickspittles and abusers.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How many bloody times?!
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to. Parliament *cannot* stop No Deal other than by backing a deal (and only then if the EU actors back it too).
It may be that if May can't deliver an agreement then she will be brought down but where is the sweet spot for her successor - assuming there's time - to agree anything?
When 'No Deal' is about to happen, assuming that still nobody wants it to happen, the way out is a 'People's Vote' plus an extension. The extension is unlikely to be granted without the 'People's Vote'
But May has to either betray the DUP (not possible) and the constitutional proprieties of the country...
OR, fudge on FOM for a quasi EEA.
The latter is likely to be carried in Parliament, especially in opposition to No Deal. The ERG might vote against, but perhaps May can win over soft Labour Remainer types, and even the LDs and SNP if she conceded a referendum (to take place post actual departure but during transition) as well.
*This must surely be May’s course.*
Alternatively, May could concede defeat and prepare for No Deal. In my opinion she would not survive a day if she came out for that. The Tories cannot be seen advocating a No Deal.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Lord Howard's let the cat out of the bag - They're planning to let Theresa get Brexit over the line on 29th March, then push her off the cliff, sack Hammond and install new leadership who can present a positive post-Brexit vision and take on Jezza.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Whereas in Germany, you can vote for parties who get representation, but still end up with a CDU-led coalition in perpetuity. PR is not a panacea for a fragmenting, capricious electorate.
I didn't say it was a panacea I said it is a marked improvement
No, it's not. Ask the Belgians or Italians. The electoral system is a far less important factor than the political culture of a country, both in the electorate at large and in the political class.
That's not to say that FPTP is perfect - far from it - but the improvements it offers (to differing effects, depending on the system), have to be offset by its downsides. When the electorate and politicians are in a fractious mood - as now - PR makes a country essentially ungovernable.
Of course you can find a couple of cases in Europe where a PR system works poorly but given the number that use PR compared to our illiterate X system that is not surprising. In general they do a better job.The UK and US are two of the most bitterly divided societies and I am prepared to bet that our binary choice electoral systems play a significant role in that.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How does it not? There are so many factions lined up, how do they agree on anything? More likely we sleepwalk into no deal.
Hopefully the EU will grant a last-minute extension to haul us from the mire.
No Deal guarantees a second EU referendum which Remain will almost certainly win.
The pro EEA Tories would combine with Labour and the LDs to force a second EU referendum through
Again with the bald assertions.
Why does it guarantee a second referendum? Labour will not allow remain to be on it, and - I suspect - neither will a majority of the Tories.
I think in those circumstances- assuming No Deal is the disaster that people predict- Labour would be happy to have a Remain option
But the referendum here is to be held prior to crashing out, not used as a national lifeboat after the good ship GB has sank.
Ah. I was talking about the latter scenario. If talks collapse in November then a second referendum COULD happen (or at least be organised) between then and next March, but that's more tenuous
But that would require Legislation. Effectively only the Government can propose that.
Yes. People saying that a second referendum could magically happen because most MPs support it, don’t explain how this comes about in terms of Parliamentary procedure and scheduling. Pretty much nothing gets passed in terms of primary legislation if the government (the PM’s office in practice) are opposed to it.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.
God no, a clear majority of Labour MPs would vote for EUref2 faced with No Deal
Against their own leader who's trying to bring down the government and get an election? Don't buy it, but OK, let's say you get 180 out of 262. 40 Tory rebels, you're up to 220. 50 more from minor parties... you're *still* way short...
Who exactly is going to put the EURef2 legislation forward, and when, and how? Just because there might be a majority for it doesn't mean it happens. And it's debatable as to whether there would be a majority anyway.
Also correct. Basically parliament can't do anything except possibly reject a deal or bring down the government.
The only possible exception is for MPs to do a deal with the PM across party lines to cover losses she has on her side, and it's easy to see that happening in a lot of countries, but Britain isn't one of them: the party system is just too ingrained.
Even if that kind of arrangement was possible (and I agree - I don't think it is, as it'd mean Labour MPs going against their own leader and giving him and the NEC a wonderful opportunity to purge them should he/they so wish), the Labour MPs would have to sign up to it *before* May did that deal as otherwise the Con MPs or DUP would bring May down as soon as it was clear that she was going to deliver either a very soft Brexit or an internal UK border.
Depending how short TMay was you may not need any/many from Labour - do the deal with SNP/LD/PC and that's 50, which covers quite a sizable rebellion. But obviously it doesn't work if the entire Tory Party wants to go kamikaze.
The lurking horror for May and her Merry Men is that she thinks the country is too scared of a Corbyn government to vote it in. My view is that she' s wrong. The Tories are sleepwalking to oblivion.
Might not work but that's the plan, IMO.
Sounds to me like they all know the Brexit promised is undeliverable so they want May to carry the can. Once she's cocked it up charlatans like Johnson will rush forward and put themselves up for the leadership, claiming it would all have different if he had been PM. Will he get away with it, probably if Corbyn remains at the helm, such is the state of politics in the UK right now.
We have been stuck with a choice of 2 for decades because of our archaic and unrepresentative voting system. PR systems allow other political movements to emerge and even win as in France, Italy and Greece. It gives an outlet for voters.
Here we are stuck with Hobson's choice. The only new groups to emerge have been UKIP and SNP both under proportional systems. We will be stuck with the same depressing choice for ever and a day as it suits the 2 main parties to keep it so.
Whereas in Germany, you can vote for parties who get representation, but still end up with a CDU-led coalition in perpetuity. PR is not a panacea for a fragmenting, capricious electorate.
I didn't say it was a panacea I said it is a marked improvement
No, it's not. Ask the Belgians or Italians. The electoral system is a far less important factor than the political culture of a country, both in the electorate at large and in the political class.
That's not to say that FPTP is perfect - far from it - but the improvements it offers (to differing effects, depending on the system), have to be offset by its downsides. When the electorate and politicians are in a fractious mood - as now - PR makes a country essentially ungovernable.
Of course you can find a couple of cases in Europe where a PR system works poorly but given the number that use PR compared to our illiterate X system that is not surprising. In general they do a better job.The UK and US are two of the most bitterly divided societies and I am prepared to bet that our binary choice electoral systems play a significant role in that.
I don’t buy this.
We just think we are more divided because we consume English-speaking news.
NZ introduced PR in the 90s. After two decades of schisms and fissiparous silliness, the system is slowly and ironically returning to a two (and a half) party system.
I think we are most definitely headed for no deal. The EU has no strategic interest in concluding a mutually beneficial deal with a seceding state, and as long as May is PM, there will be no second referendum. She would win any vote of confidence amongst Conservative MPs, and Tory rebels will not put Corbyn into Downing Street to facilitate a second referendum. There will be no general election, because May is still leader.
Time to batten down the hatches.
Parliament will not vote for No Deal and if May persists with Chequers to No Deal the ERG and pro Canada and pro EEA and Remain Tory MPs will combine to ensure she loses a confidence vote
How many bloody times?!
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to. Parliament *cannot* stop No Deal other than by backing a deal (and only then if the EU actors back it too).
It may be that if May can't deliver an agreement then she will be brought down but where is the sweet spot for her successor - assuming there's time - to agree anything?
When 'No Deal' is about to happen, assuming that still nobody wants it to happen, the way out is a 'People's Vote' plus an extension. The extension is unlikely to be granted without the 'People's Vote'
The extension will not happen without enormous concessions to the EU27 who all have to agree it. For example, the Belgians might require every Brit to learn Walloon or Macron might ask for us to formally recognise that the French Army are superior to ours for evermore.
They have been advocating it since Lancaster House
No they haven’t. “No Deal is better than Bad Deal” is rhetorical bollocks. For May to actually suspend negotiationas and suggest we must prepare for No Deal would be suicide.
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
The language issue has always held back Plaid and I expect it to continue doing so.
Yes- oddly because it’s in such a relatively healthy position ( well way way more to be fair) compared to Gaelic in Scotland. So it’s an “issue”, which doesn’t exist outside of a tiny electoral slice of Scotland.
That said Price (teamed with Iorwerth one assumes), is articulate, and has the “vision thing”. Now I might not agree with his vision, but I bet he’ll be a far better advocate of it than Wood could’ve been in a month of Sunday’s, (she got about 22% of the vote as counted today - as the incumbent !) He hasn’t ruled out working with the Tories or Liberals and realistically if Plaid are not going to team up with Labour again at some point that’s the only way you can see Labour bums on opposition benches in Wales, and “other” bums on Govt benches.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
It would be fascinating to see an updated version of the YouGov model that was so accurately predictive last time...
That would be interesting. However, YouGov's standard polling has behaved a bit like this before. In the early Autumn of 2016 it suddenly shifted from being the best pollster for Labour to becoming its worst. That pattern continued throughout the Winter of 2016/2017 until the election was called. Within a week of that , it fell back into line with other pollsters. All a bit puzzling - but that does not mean it is necessarily wrong now!
That’ll give the others in Wales ( especially Labour) a run for their money. He’s bright. Leagues ahead of Wood. Wouldn't be surprised to see the other defeated candidate Rhun ap Iorwerth ( an ex journalist) promoted in the new regime, he’s very presentable too.
How the hell they stuck with Wood for so long beggars belief.
The language issue has always held back Plaid and I expect it to continue doing so.
Yes- oddly because it’s in such a relatively healthy position ( well way way more to be fair) compared to Gaelic in Scotland. So it’s an “issue”, which doesn’t exist outside of a tiny electoral slice of Scotland.
That said Price (teamed with Iorwerth one assumes), is articulate, and has the “vision thing”. Now I might not agree with his vision, but I bet he’ll be a far better advocate of it than Wood could’ve been in a month of Sunday’s, (she got about 22% of the vote as counted today - as the incumbent !) He hasn’t ruled out working with the Tories or Liberals and realistically if Plaid are not going to team up with Labour again at some point that’s the only way you can see Labour bums on opposition benches in Wales, and “other” bums on Govt benches.
Could be interesting.
I doubt that he will have the appeal of Gwynfor Evans or the likes of Dafydd Wigley and Dafydd Ellis-Thomas. A shift to the Right by Plaid is likely to help Labour.
Given that he once had an affair with an Uzbek stripper, this is pretty funny.
(His marriage) separation followed Murray beginning a relationship with Nadira Alieva, an Uzbek woman whom he met while she was working as a belly dancer in a nightclub in Tashkent. When he left Uzbekistan in October 2004, Alieva joined him in London. After his divorce to Kennedy was finalised in 2008, Murray married Alieva on 6 May 2009; they have a son. As of 2018, they are still happily married and supporting each other.
If you are going to be blatantly prejudiced, try and get the facts right.
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18 Sample size: 1,625"
And that comes before the Tories' conference boost.
YouGov has been out of line with other pollsters for a few months. ICM yesterday only gives the Tories a 1% lead - and others have parties pretty well neck and neck.
Regardless of the 'house effect' of the pollster, you shouldn't be going backwards during your own conference.
Comments
Time to be bolder than spreadsheet Phil.
"for how long will they continue to dismiss factual detail about what no deal will do to them personally?" - until it actually happens. Never underestimate the ability of the human mind to rationalise what we want to be true.
"So no confidence - whether they think that brings about a fresh election or a 3rd referendum or a national unity government or JRM as Tory leader - suddenly seems like a better option than a slow death." - those who believe a third referendum is anathema, or that they'll be punished by the electorate for "betraying Brexit", or who decide a slow death is preferable to a quick one, or who rate Party loyalty higher than anything else, or who fear a Corbyn government more than anything else will, I feel, be a large enough proportion to prevent this happening.
When all options look really really bad, human nature is to freeze and do nothing.
https://twitter.com/Plaid_Cymru/status/1045639250614603776
Now, in a sane world (ha haha hahahaha hahahahahaha) there will have been plenty of back channel negotiations between us and the EU and the final deal will reflect that fact and somehow a rabbit will be pulled out of the hat based upon Chequers.
If not, if there was no pre-approving or kite flying and we really did hammer out Chequers at the bottom of a well, then we sadly are at the mercy of whatever the EU deigns to grant us. Where this leads to UK govt-wise, I'm not sure. Every day Cons should give thanks for the FPTA.
If there's no deal and it's catastrophic, the Tories will carry the can. Oh, they'll point fingers and there would be shouting about how the Opposition made them do it and everything would have worked if they hadn't been opposed, but the vast majority of the populace don't care about the ins and outs. Hell, there was a survey showing that nearly 20% of the population didn't know who was leading the Conservative Party just a couple of weeks prior to the 2017 General Election.
If it's catastrophic, it's easier to sweep away the fragments of the old order for his new order.
Where's the downside for him?
@EuropeElects
1h1 hour ago
UK, YouGov poll:
CON-ECR: 42% (+2)
LAB-S&D: 36%
LDEM-ALDE: 11%
UKIP-EFDD: 4% (-1)
SNP/PC-G/EFA: 4% (-1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 2%
Field work: 24/09/18 – 25/09/18
Sample size: 1,625"
I have shot better quality video on a mobile phone. I wonder what they used? And why not blend in the voice / speeches /events? I would have used those to mask the audio gap.
It isn't looking positive for May, at the moment.
If there's no deal May's future will largely depend upon how she reacts but more importantly WHY there is no deal. If there's no deal because May won't make one but the cabinet believes they can then she will be out and replaced as quick as Howard was. Expect someone like Hunt to be the unity candidate in that scenario.
We're at an almost perfect constitutional stalemate.
If the EU don't bend, May will resign IMO.
If the cabinet think May is the obstacle and they can make a deal they will do what they need to do. That's reasonable isn't it?
Never underestimate the arrogance of the cabinet. Even if a deal is impossible they will think they could do better. What have they got to lose afterall?
https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1045637243057184768?s=21
Whether or not parliament votes against some 'neutral motion' on there being No Deal on the table, it doesn't stop No Deal from happening - not least because there is no alternative deal to sign up to. Parliament *cannot* stop No Deal other than by backing a deal (and only then if the EU actors back it too).
It may be that if May can't deliver an agreement then she will be brought down but where is the sweet spot for her successor - assuming there's time - to agree anything?
The only possible exception is for MPs to do a deal with the PM across party lines to cover losses she has on her side, and it's easy to see that happening in a lot of countries, but Britain isn't one of them: the party system is just too ingrained.
Sorry UK - no one gives a d*mn about you as long as they can seize power for themselves.
REMEMBER: The UK accounts for 6-10% of each individual EU member's exports while the EU accounts for nearly half of the UK's exports. IN ADDITION, the Labour Party wants to form a Labour government and is not in any way interested in supporting the current Conservative Government.
fin
May may well achieve the same feat though...
Labour get to sit and shout from the sidelines about how bad the government is.
Yet you are behind.
Why is that do you think?
That's not to say that FPTP is perfect - far from it - but the improvements it offers (to differing effects, depending on the system), have to be offset by its downsides. When the electorate and politicians are in a fractious mood - as now - PR makes a country essentially ungovernable.
We are on tentrehooks to see if Theresa can top last years nightmare. I wouldn't put it past her.
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1045613337269219328
But May has to either betray the DUP (not possible) and the constitutional proprieties of the country...
OR, fudge on FOM for a quasi EEA.
The latter is likely to be carried in Parliament, especially in opposition to No Deal. The ERG might vote against, but perhaps May can win over soft Labour Remainer types, and even the LDs and SNP if she conceded a referendum (to take place post actual departure but during transition) as well.
*This must surely be May’s course.*
Alternatively, May could concede defeat and prepare for No Deal. In my opinion she would not survive a day if she came out for that. The Tories cannot be seen advocating a No Deal.
We just think we are more divided because we consume English-speaking news.
NZ introduced PR in the 90s. After two decades of schisms and fissiparous silliness, the system is slowly and ironically returning to a two (and a half) party system.
It's. Not. Going. To. Happen.
https://twitter.com/psmith/status/1045652584298622976
That said Price (teamed with Iorwerth one assumes), is articulate, and has the “vision thing”. Now I might not agree with his vision, but I bet he’ll be a far better advocate of it than Wood could’ve been in a month of Sunday’s, (she got about 22% of the vote as counted today - as the incumbent !) He hasn’t ruled out working with the Tories or Liberals and realistically if Plaid are not going to team up with Labour again at some point that’s the only way you can see Labour bums on opposition benches in Wales, and “other” bums on Govt benches.
Could be interesting.
If you are going to be blatantly prejudiced, try and get the facts right.