politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh truth is that the next General Election is in May 20
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Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory Conf. Everyone will scream and shout.Richard_Nabavi said:
It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.Sean_F said:
Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.Richard_Nabavi said:ICM, fieldwork last weekend:
Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)
Labour: 40% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 4% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live
16:440 -
That's the normal pattern, but at the moment support for the two main parties seem polarised and rather static, so perhaps the normal swings will be less evident this year.Anorak said:
Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory conf. Everyone will scream and shout.Richard_Nabavi said:
It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.Sean_F said:
Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.Richard_Nabavi said:ICM, fieldwork last weekend:
Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)
Labour: 40% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 4% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live
16:440 -
In one of the most self-evidently correct headlines the Sun has ever printed May explains that she is not a stand up comedian and she does not charm the public. Inevitably, she spoils it by claiming to be a PM.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7360847/im-not-a-stand-up-comedian-theresa-may-says-as-pm-insists-shes-right-not-to-try-and-charm-the-public/0 -
My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of clumsy acronyms:
https://www.smithson.co.uk/
It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."0 -
"you mean they don't take pounds here?" lolFrancisUrquhart said:Prize pillocks...the Thick of it and then some.
Team Corbyn are in Brussels today to meet with EU negotiators, poor planning meant they had a little taxi trouble when they realised they had no means to pay.
https://order-order.com/2018/09/27/labour-run-money/0 -
Spam - some poor animal, maybe.JosiasJessop said:
My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of clumsy acronyms:
https://www.smithson.co.uk/
It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."0 -
Yes indeeddixiedean said:
Surely if we get to April it would have to be apply to rejoin/remain out?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is a whole new ball game - no deal would be a huge moment and I do not know the parliamentary procedure to stop it other than huge pressure from within the HOC for a remain - leave referendumdixiedean said:
Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Archer here. Often hear that Parliament will block No Deal. But, the only way to do that is to vote for a deal. Parliament cannot magically make a deal appear to vote on if none exists.archer101au said:
Parliament has two, and only two options. They can vote for or against any deal presented. Or they can no confidence the Government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but the HOC are not going to accept no deal
Nothing else Parliament does will make any difference.
So, how exactly can HofC prevent No Deal, given that we leave in March?
Sorry if the answer is obvious.0 -
Hmm. Might be right. The parties are so far separated on the spectrum that the leap from one to 'tother is a mighty one indeed. Let's see...Richard_Nabavi said:
That's the normal pattern, but at the moment support for the two main parties seem polarised and rather static, so perhaps the normal swings will be less evident this year.Anorak said:
Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory conf. Everyone will scream and shout.Richard_Nabavi said:
It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.Sean_F said:
Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.Richard_Nabavi said:ICM, fieldwork last weekend:
Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)
Labour: 40% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 4% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live
16:44
The LDs really need a polished media performer to lead them, they could be hoovering up discontents from both ends.0 -
Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/10453344988445614090 -
Trotter's Independent TradersJosiasJessop said:
My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of clumsy acronyms:
https://www.smithson.co.uk/
It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."0 -
Many years ago when the Apple Mac was fairly new and the first clumsy version of Windows was just being launched, I gave a talk in the US where I referred to the then-common acronym WIMP: Windows, Icons, Menus, Pointer. After my talk, one of the audience got up and complained vociferously that I had been disrespectful to a fine American technology.JosiasJessop said:
My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of clumsy acronyms:
https://www.smithson.co.uk/
It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."0 -
My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.Roger said:
Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
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£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?0 -
Yes, if Theresa's speech from hell last year cannot break the stalemate, it is hard to conceive what can.Anorak said:
Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory Conf. Everyone will scream and shout.Richard_Nabavi said:
It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.Sean_F said:
Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.Richard_Nabavi said:ICM, fieldwork last weekend:
Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)
Labour: 40% (up 1)
Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)
Ukip: 4% (no change)
Greens: 3% (no change)
Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live
16:440 -
It is Wings who are suing her so she had little choice other than to pay up or fight her corner. Dropping the case whether her backers came forward of not wasn't an option.alex. said:
My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.Roger said:
Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/10453344988445614090 -
JosiasJessop said:
My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of clumsy acronyms:
https://www.smithson.co.uk/
It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
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Now's your chance. Pro bono but just think of the publicityDavidL said:
£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?0 -
But that's my point. She could presumably have settled early on, and relatively cheaply, said any negative implication was unintentional etc etcRoger said:
It is Wings who are suing her so she had little choice other than to pay up or fight her corner. Dropping the case whether her backers came forward of not wasn't an option.alex. said:
My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.Roger said:
Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
That's not an option once the legal fees on both sides have hit treble figures.
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Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_HopkinsDavidL said:
£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?
Left them both in serious financial trouble.0 -
McDonnell’s economic “plan” going down well...Scott_P said:0 -
Or Alternatively suspension of A50, pending more negotiations/GE/Leadership ContestBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is a whole new ball game - no deal would be a huge moment and I do not know the parliamentary procedure to stop it other than huge pressure from within the HOC for a remain - leave referendumdixiedean said:
Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Archer here. Often hear that Parliament will block No Deal. But, the only way to do that is to vote for a deal. Parliament cannot magically make a deal appear to vote on if none exists.archer101au said:
Parliament has two, and only two options. They can vote for or against any deal presented. Or they can no confidence the Government.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe but the HOC are not going to accept no deal
Nothing else Parliament does will make any difference.
So, how exactly can HofC prevent No Deal, given that we leave in March?
Sorry if the answer is obvious.0 -
Arh but that was before the Supreme Leader spoke.....Labour +6 bounce incoming.Scott_P said:twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816
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Mr. Sandpit, a 2 point shift is just statistical noise, I think.0
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I would hate to be in the entertainment biz....can't win.
JK Rowling defends Nagini casting in Fantastic Beasts
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-456663500 -
When it’s in your side’s favour it’s a clear indication of a change of direction, when it’s against your side it’s just statistical noise...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, a 2 point shift is just statistical noise, I think.
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Pro bono? For a politician? Not going to happen.Roger said:
Now's your chance. Pro bono but just think of the publicityDavidL said:
£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?0 -
Madness. They almost deserve each other.Sandpit said:
Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_HopkinsDavidL said:
£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?
Left them both in serious financial trouble.0 -
Who's the left wing idiot? (unless it's referring to Sally Bercow?).DavidL said:
Madness. They almost deserve each other.Sandpit said:
Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_HopkinsDavidL said:
£90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.Anorak said:Game of Thrones: SLAB version.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1045334498844561409
Why can't I get cases like that?
Left them both in serious financial trouble.0
