Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
All second referendum questions predicated on their being a Deal to be included in the referendum questions, not there being no deal at all
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
There isn't an ultra-nationalist infection in the party, that's a complete misunderstanding of what drives the ultra-Brexiteers. It's much more a frustration with the what is seen as a remote undemocratic bureaucracy running our lives but beyond accountability. Personally I think they are unrealistic, but they're not ultra-nationalist or narrow-minded in the sense in which they are sometimes portrayed.
I may be being slow, but I struggle to see how there could be a Canada-style deal in existence prior to Brexit day to be voted down, up, along, or over. Unless we propose to simply photocopy the 1,634 pages of the deal (painstakingly and carefully optimised for the Canada-EU specific comparable strengths and weaknesses through many years of compromise and discussions), we'd have to accept several years (a decade +?) of a transition period where we literally do simply Brexit in name only, but without any say at all. Not just the 20-30% of the EU acquis applicable to EEA countries, not with the institutions and shaping capability of the EEA structure - literally all the acquis with no influence. And where would the incentive be for the EU to complete negotiations, ratification, and application in any sensible timescale? By 2025, or 2030, or whenever the deal is finally ratified, God only knows what circumstances will be here.
The detail of the long-term partnership does not need to be agreed prior to Brexit day next year. As you say, it is entirely a matter for the transition period. I too struggle to see how we could achieve it in the current period but 4 to 5 years is realistic.
Away from Labour's conference there have been two nuggets of Brexit news that have really caught my eye:
1) The referral to the ECJ on whether A50 can be revoked by the UK - will really set the cat among the pigeons if so.
2) The poll on preferred outcomes quoted by Guido with a useful pie chart: https://order-order.com/2018/09/25/chequers-remain-crushed-new-poll/ Forget Guido's spin for the moment - I'm struck that there's no option scoring higher than 22% The country is fundamentally splintered on how to proceed, and no shock at all that parliament doesn't look like having a majority for anything. Also makes me wonder how a General Election would help - the parties couldn't cover this range if they tried. Maybe we need a 6 option AV-referendum to help us out?
I also can't help thinking that Labour have done what the Tories wanted them to on Brexit this week. Both looking like they are backsliding so the Tories can paint themselves as the only true champions of Brexit, but also keeping the door open to a way out via a 2nd referendum, if the Tories need an emergency escape.
But the Tories- or at least the cabinet- haven't kept the door open
Away from Labour's conference there have been two nuggets of Brexit news that have really caught my eye:
1) The referral to the ECJ on whether A50 can be revoked by the UK - will really set the cat among the pigeons if so.
2) The poll on preferred outcomes quoted by Guido with a useful pie chart: https://order-order.com/2018/09/25/chequers-remain-crushed-new-poll/ Forget Guido's spin for the moment - I'm struck that there's no option scoring higher than 22% The country is fundamentally splintered on how to proceed, and no shock at all that parliament doesn't look like having a majority for anything. Also makes me wonder how a General Election would help - the parties couldn't cover this range if they tried. Maybe we need a 6 option AV-referendum to help us out?
I also can't help thinking that Labour have done what the Tories wanted them to on Brexit this week. Both looking like they are backsliding so the Tories can paint themselves as the only true champions of Brexit, but also keeping the door open to a way out via a 2nd referendum, if the Tories need an emergency escape.
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
Away from Labour's conference there have been two nuggets of Brexit news that have really caught my eye:
1) The referral to the ECJ on whether A50 can be revoked by the UK - will really set the cat among the pigeons if so.
2) The poll on preferred outcomes quoted by Guido with a useful pie chart: https://order-order.com/2018/09/25/chequers-remain-crushed-new-poll/ Forget Guido's spin for the moment - I'm struck that there's no option scoring higher than 22% The country is fundamentally splintered on how to proceed, and no shock at all that parliament doesn't look like having a majority for anything. Also makes me wonder how a General Election would help - the parties couldn't cover this range if they tried. Maybe we need a 6 option AV-referendum to help us out?
I also can't help thinking that Labour have done what the Tories wanted them to on Brexit this week. Both looking like they are backsliding so the Tories can paint themselves as the only true champions of Brexit, but also keeping the door open to a way out via a 2nd referendum, if the Tories need an emergency escape.
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
I don't think that the poll is that useful. The more complex the questions, the less valuable the answers.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
The problem we have is that a phalanx of senior Conservatives are determined to bring about crash Brexit and reshape the UK economy so that they/their friends can profit from the debacle. ... snip...
Bonkers. Just plain bonkers. Look at what you've just written.
"Professor" Minford wants to remove industry - gift week for carpet bagger investors who get to snap up businesses and equipment to relocate abroad and then sell us back products we used to make at high profit margins.
What is bonkers is that the Conservative Party used to be the party of free trade. And now seems to be the party of hedge fund speculators and distressed asset sales. Rees-Mogg is an intelligent man. He knows that his statements about how crash brexit will be fine are demonstrably wrong. But he wants it anyway. Why might that be...?
Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
The key question is do you trust Corbyn/ McDonnell not so much the policies
Many of Labour's policies on public services, nationalisation etc. are popular. It's Corbyn's record, his attitude to security and foreign policy, the whiff of anti-Semitism, fear of the extreme left in general, that hold the party back.
The problem we have is that a phalanx of senior Conservatives are determined to bring about crash Brexit and reshape the UK economy so that they/their friends can profit from the debacle. ... snip...
Bonkers. Just plain bonkers. Look at what you've just written.
I could believe it. Brexit makes so little sense that an interpretation like that is actually believable.
No, it really isn't.
Nothing about Brexit surprises me any more.
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
I think it quite likely that by early next year we will be staring down the barrel of no deal, supermarkets will begin to warn of imminent disruption to food supplies and airlines will start cancelling flights. There being no other way out of the political cul de sac in which the UK finds itself a new referendum campaign will be fought against a background verging on national panic. It's a very worrying prospect.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option 24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works. 20% for Remain. Only 20%? 14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option 13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain
So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
There isn't an ultra-nationalist infection in the party, that's a complete misunderstanding of what drives the ultra-Brexiteers. It's much more a frustration with the what is seen as a remote undemocratic bureaucracy running our lives but beyond accountability. Personally I think they are unrealistic, but they're not ultra-nationalist or narrow-minded in the sense in which they are sometimes portrayed.
I am sorry, but that is complete nonsense. The EU has plenty of directly elected MEPs and our own elected heads of government meet to decide overall directions and policies. The Commission, like our civil service, is not elected but I do not hear the Brexiteers yelling for the UK civil service to be disbanded. Our own appointed (not elected) Sir Humphrey's have always wielded power in their own way.
In terms of EU bureaucracy, the UK was always its own worst enemy with our crazy desire to gold-plate every EU directive instead of, like many of the continentals, being more laissez-faire about the whole thing.
If the Brexiteers think the EU is not accountable enough then they should have been pressing for more power for the MEPs, but doing something is always harder work than running away and doing nothing and then complaining that other people are not achieving the Brexiteer goals. They should have made Guy Verhofstadt an ally, not a bogeyman.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
It's interesting that it now seems to indicate that a majority actually want to stay in but overall think we have to leave without any further say.
Unless Brexit goes really well, this ain't going to heal the divisions, but sow the seeds for them to get even worse over time.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.
The problem we have is that a phalanx of senior Conservatives are determined to bring about crash Brexit and reshape the UK economy so that they/their friends can profit from the debacle. ... snip...
Bonkers. Just plain bonkers. Look at what you've just written.
"Professor" Minford wants to remove industry - gift week for carpet bagger investors who get to snap up businesses and equipment to relocate abroad and then sell us back products we used to make at high profit margins.
What is bonkers is that the Conservative Party used to be the party of free trade. And now seems to be the party of hedge fund speculators and distressed asset sales. Rees-Mogg is an intelligent man. He knows that his statements about how crash brexit will be fine are demonstrably wrong. But he wants it anyway. Why might that be...?
Err, your link shows that some funds associated with some Brexiteers recommend investments abroad. They can invest abroad with or without Brexit. The idea that they advocated Brexit for personal gain or to help their mates is beyond absurd.
Oh, and it's Professor Minford, not "Professor" Minford. He's an academic, and quite a distinguished one. He's also wrong, but so is Simon Wren-Lewis. Neither is driven by personal gain.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.
I am just tucking into a chicken sandwich for lunch, how much of an indicator that we wont leave the EU do you make that?
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
There isn't an ultra-nationalist infection in the party, that's a complete misunderstanding of what drives the ultra-Brexiteers. It's much more a frustration with the what is seen as a remote undemocratic bureaucracy running our lives but beyond accountability. Personally I think they are unrealistic, but they're not ultra-nationalist or narrow-minded in the sense in which they are sometimes portrayed.
I am sorry, but that is complete nonsense. The EU has plenty of directly elected MEPs and our own elected heads of government meet to decide overall directions and policies. The Commission, like our civil service, is not elected but I do not hear the Brexiteers yelling for the UK civil service to be disbanded. Our own appointed (not elected) Sir Humphrey's have always wielded power in their own way.
In terms of EU bureaucracy, the UK was always its own worst enemy with our crazy desire to gold-plate every EU directive instead of, like many of the continentals, being more laissez-faire about the whole thing.
If the Brexiteers think the EU is not accountable enough then they should have been pressing for more power for the MEPs, but doing something is always harder work than running away and doing nothing and then complaining that other people are not achieving the Brexiteer goals. They should have made Guy Verhofstadt an ally, not a bogeyman.
It may well be complete nonsense. I was describing their view, not mine. The point is that, whether it's right or wrong, it's not an ultra-nationalist view.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.
I am just tucking into a chicken sandwich for lunch, how much of an indicator that we wont leave the EU do you make that?
Gosh, the toasted pitta bread fell apart as I was eating.. it can only mean one thing... Theresa May's deal will crumble!
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.
I am just tucking into a chicken sandwich for lunch, how much of an indicator that we wont leave the EU do you make that?
Gosh the toasted pitta bread fell apart as I was eating.. it can only mean one thing... Theresa May's deal will crumble!
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
No Deal would not get through the Commons without a second EU referendum, for starters opposition motions and backbench motions would be nothing but ERref2 and Soubry and Grieve etc would likely paralyse the government with filibusters and even voting with the opposition on every bit of legislation until a vote on EUref2 was granted
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
An election remains unlikely. But these are unlikely times. I don't see a deal that will be acceptable by both Tory MPs and the EU - one or the other will come up with something "new" but won't actually have listened (again) to the red lines of the other side.
So we get to an impasse. Government in office but not in power. Unable to do a deal, unable NOT to do a deal (even in its most defiant rhetoric, the government know that no deal is the end of them). So we need to reframe and go bigger. A General Election or a Referendum on No Deal.
In ordinary times these options absolutely would not happen. But these are desperate times...
Tell me how a GE changes anything unless Corbyn puts a second referendum in his manifesto and that was categorically ruled out last night.
The only thing that could change matters is a second referendum but at present the path to that is unclear, However, it must now have a chance one way or the other
People are talking about a 3rd referendum being the nuclear option but it isn't - the fractured parties remain fractured and we debate two very clear options.
An election - called solely because the government has ceased to function and cannot get any Brexit measure through the Commons - really is the nuclear option. What would be the position of the parties on Brexit that they would be asking for a mandate to deliver? Would the Tories pledge to try and force through a Chequers deal already rejected by the EU? Would Labour pledge to try and force through a Norway + CU deal? Would anyone care what the LibDems pledge? Would Farage once again become leader of UKIP?
An election in the next few months - in the winter, with the chaos detailed above - should not be the plan. Is not the plan. But may be the least worst option if no deal is possible with the current make up of the Commons.
I am not predicting an election, but were it to take place I do not believe it would be dominated by Brexit at the end of the day. That proved to be the case in 2017 and I really cannot see it being much different next time. People are interested - much more interested - in other issues.
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option 24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works. 20% for Remain. Only 20%? 14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option 13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain
So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.
Canada is possible but only with a new general election and Tory majority
At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option 24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works. 20% for Remain. Only 20%? 14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option 13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain
So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.
Canada is possible but only with a new general election and Tory majority
Can't have that. It wouldn't be respecting the result of the 2017 General Election to hold another vote. Very little of the manifesto has been actioned and there's no requirement for another GE for years.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"
The spin at the moment is quite amusing, with members of the cabinet supposedly concerned that May really means it.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
Eh, I wouldn't get too caught up in the moment. I trust the ERG to hold their nerve more than Rudd and the supporters she estimates she has.
I do think it'd be hard for May to row back on her "No deal is better than a Canada-style deal" line, but not impossible, especially if the EU threw some morsels our way. And there are other massive obstacles, including the DUP. I just think that Canada isn't any more dead than Norway or Chequers.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
But about 40 would vote down Chequers, plus the EU won't agree to Chequers anyway, so isn't Chequers dead?
I highly doubt that if TM came back with a deal saying Canada that Amber Rudd would really vote it down and cause a no deal Brexit.
I think we can see a big move away from Canada and to somewhere between Norway and Chequers
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid now against a no deal so it is not beyond a possibility they may unite to persuade TM to offer deal or referendum and the ERG would be isolated in the HOC
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Other ideas raised at TWT included a national voucher-based system for funding media, with every voter allocating their voucher to a favoured news outlet, and the ultimate aim of abolishing advertising in the media to avoid the incentive to create articles that only appealed to wealthy readers.
At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"
They have choice of nod deal now (defining no deal as meaning bilaterals with individual EU countries so planes fly, etc) or no deal end 2020. The EU will still be playing the same games for the next negotiation. The difference is 4 years for the economy to re-balance or 2 years for the economy to re-balance.
I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.
There isn't an ultra-nationalist infection in the party, that's a complete misunderstanding of what drives the ultra-Brexiteers. It's much more a frustration with the what is seen as a remote undemocratic bureaucracy running our lives but beyond accountability. Personally I think they are unrealistic, but they're not ultra-nationalist or narrow-minded in the sense in which they are sometimes portrayed.
I am sorry, but that is complete nonsense. The EU has plenty of directly elected MEPs and our own elected heads of government meet to decide overall directions and policies. The Commission, like our civil service, is not elected but I do not hear the Brexiteers yelling for the UK civil service to be disbanded. Our own appointed (not elected) Sir Humphrey's have always wielded power in their own way.
In terms of EU bureaucracy, the UK was always its own worst enemy with our crazy desire to gold-plate every EU directive instead of, like many of the continentals, being more laissez-faire about the whole thing.
If the Brexiteers think the EU is not accountable enough then they should have been pressing for more power for the MEPs, but doing something is always harder work than running away and doing nothing and then complaining that other people are not achieving the Brexiteer goals. They should have made Guy Verhofstadt an ally, not a bogeyman.
It may well be complete nonsense. I was describing their view, not mine. The point is that, whether it's right or wrong, it's not an ultra-nationalist view.
Well yes... I suppose that they are not proposing concentration camps for foreigners
28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option
Of course its an option. How we would rewrite that for the UK would be done during the transition period.
Cleanest way to have done it would have been exit to EEA as a transition then complete Brexit with a Canada style deal. But doing it during transition would work too.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The Labour leader also showed his attitude to the media by simply skipping much of the press round, which usually accompanied a party conference speech, such as a traditional interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
The thing about music is that you choose what to listen to as the mood takes you!
The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.
No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.
The Labour leader also showed his attitude to the media by simply skipping much of the press round, which usually accompanied a party conference speech, such as a traditional interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
The Labour leader also showed his attitude to the media by simply skipping much of the press round, which usually accompanied a party conference speech, such as a traditional interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"
I suspect it would seem like surrender to the EU so at present it is the correct policy
A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%
28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option 24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works. 20% for Remain. Only 20%? 14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option 13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain
So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.
Canada is possible but only with a new general election and Tory majority
Can't have that. It wouldn't be respecting the result of the 2017 General Election to hold another vote. Very little of the manifesto has been actioned and there's no requirement for another GE for years.
If the DUP block most voters preferred Brexit option there may be as the EU will only agree Canada for GB and not the UK
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.
At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"
May repeated "no deal is better than a bad deal" only last week. I think she has probably convinced herself that it is true. It's been obvious for some time that she has made herself a prisoner of the Tory Brexiteers and Stockholm syndrome is developing.
Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
The key question is do you trust Corbyn/ McDonnell not so much the policies
Many of Labour's policies on public services, nationalisation etc. are popular. It's Corbyn's record, his attitude to security and foreign policy, the whiff of anti-Semitism, fear of the extreme left in general, that hold the party back.
If you break it down, the public care about price and service quality, not whether the industry is privatised or nationalised. There are no calls for it for Netflix/Amazon/NowTV, for private road haulage or for O2/EE/Vodafone because consumers are generally happy.
On gas, water and railways they feel they are ripped off for a sub-standard service and assume all will be better under public ownership, which won’t last reality very long.
The only one for which the wider public at large share the ideology of the Labour leadership regardless of price and service quality is the NHS.
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
Is the Multiple minimal deal option even realistic? And if so, is it only realistic if we hand over our 40 billion?
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP published a strong rejection of it last night but you seem to be in denial
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP published a strong rejection of it last night but you seem to be in denial
That's not what I've read can you link to that?
The DUP are contrarian to most things. They've absolutely rejected the backstop as Barnier wants it too.
Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.
The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.
The key question is do you trust Corbyn/ McDonnell not so much the policies
Many of Labour's policies on public services, nationalisation etc. are popular. It's Corbyn's record, his attitude to security and foreign policy, the whiff of anti-Semitism, fear of the extreme left in general, that hold the party back.
If you break it down, the public care about price and service quality, not whether the industry is privatised or nationalised. There are no calls for it for Netflix/Amazon/NowTV, for private road haulage or for O2/EE/Vodafone because consumers are generally happy.
On gas, water and railways they feel they are ripped off for a sub-standard service and assume all will be better under public ownership, which won’t last reality very long.
The only one for which the wider public at large share the ideology of the Labour leadership regardless of price and service quality is the NHS.
Their party political broadcast seemed to suggest they were going to subsidise failing business on the High St.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.
Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.
I am just tucking into a chicken sandwich for lunch, how much of an indicator that we wont leave the EU do you make that?
I just scratched my balls.
A massive leading indicator I want to join the euro and prostrate myself beneath Selamyr’s feet and beg for absolution.
Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.
Hardly a 'strong rejection' either.
Is there a special Brexiteer dictionary where "vague and contradictory" and "not something we would support" translates into "we like the sound of this"?
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
Yes: Chequers. "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
The thing about music is that you choose what to listen to as the mood takes you!
The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.
No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.
Leavers like you "completely believe" all sorts of Cock-and-Bull stories if it helps you to alleviate your conscience from the fact that the collective brainstorm you have had with other naïve fools has taken this country down a path of national humiliation
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
I think thats all of them.
So, to summarise the practicalities: CETA. Requires exit to EEA for a period of many years EEA/EFTA. Permanent exit to EEA Controlled No Deal. Panic bilateral deals such as (for example) keeping electricity flowing in NI. We're bound to miss several massive things that cause massive problems anyway. Uncontrolled No Deal. Big Badda-Boom Remain. We stay in the EEA and the EU
In three of the five scenarios very little (if anything) changes in March, with only the CETA option giving any prospect of eventually doing something different. And the longer it goes on (and it WILL go on. And on/ And on) the clearer it will be that the deal being negotiated is worse than the deal we currently have
That leaves a controlled crash or an uncontrolled crash.
And people still expect Theresa May / the government to continue...? Faced with the above, are we really confident that another election / plebiscite doesn't feel least worst?
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
But about 40 would vote down Chequers, plus the EU won't agree to Chequers anyway, so isn't Chequers dead?
I highly doubt that if TM came back with a deal saying Canada that Amber Rudd would really vote it down and cause a no deal Brexit.
I think we can see a big move away from Canada and to somewhere between Norway and Chequers
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid now against a no deal so it is not beyond a possibility they may unite to persuade TM to offer deal or referendum and the ERG would be isolated in the HOC
Like many on here you persist in assuming that the choice of which type of deal/no deal is the U.K.’s to make.
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.
Hardly a 'strong rejection' either.
Is there a special Brexiteer dictionary where "vague and contradictory" and "not something we would support" translates into "we like the sound of this"?
Back all the women. It’s already been said informally that it’s the most important of the selection criteria.
Why? The best person surely. Or am I being stupidly old-fashioned?
Kirsty Wark* has left Desert Island Discs because of illness so not sure that she’s up to it. Can’t stand Emily Maitlis - she cannot ask a succint pointed question to save her life.
*the slightly more mellifluously toned Kirsty Young, who definitely isn't in the running.
Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.
Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?
I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it
Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.
Hardly a 'strong rejection' either.
Is there a special Brexiteer dictionary where "vague and contradictory" and "not something we would support" translates into "we like the sound of this"?
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
But about 40 would vote down Chequers, plus the EU won't agree to Chequers anyway, so isn't Chequers dead?
I highly doubt that if TM came back with a deal saying Canada that Amber Rudd would really vote it down and cause a no deal Brexit.
I think we can see a big move away from Canada and to somewhere between Norway and Chequers
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid now against a no deal so it is not beyond a possibility they may unite to persuade TM to offer deal or referendum and the ERG would be isolated in the HOC
Like many on here you persist in assuming that the choice of which type of deal/no deal is the U.K.’s to make.
Good point. One of my (many) concerns about the project of insanity, AKA Brexit, was that the UK government would not be in control of events. More "throwing away control" rather than "bringing back"
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
The thing about music is that you choose what to listen to as the mood takes you!
The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.
No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid rejecting no deal today is significant
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
Invading Ireland to remove the irish border issue.
Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.
Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere
Sorry but no respect is required for stupid decision making. Politicians have to pretend this, the rest of us might as well call it for what it is. If a person you knew took an unnecessary gamble with his/her family's future you would say they were an idiot, not that you should respect their decision, when it was clearly idiotic.
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
And in the end its all down to FOM. For a variety of reasons, cultural and economic, people have decided they want shut of the foreigners. If only anyone foreign would FUCK OFF then we could all have jobs selling things to the same foreigners. Not that the people want to do the jobs that the foreigners are doing, FUCK THAT, "I ain't picking fruit".
How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
Invading Ireland to remove the irish border issue.
Go to war with Germany and France? There are probably quite a few Leavers who would seriously advocate that as an option
Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.
Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere
Sorry but no respect is required for stupid decision making. Politicians have to pretend this, the rest of us might as well call it for what it is. If a person you knew took an unnecessary gamble with his/her family's future you would say they were an idiot, not that you should respect their decision, when it was clearly idiotic.
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
And in the end its all down to FOM. For a variety of reasons, cultural and economic, people have decided they want shut of the foreigners. If only anyone foreign would FUCK OFF then we could all have jobs selling things to the same foreigners. Not that the people want to do the jobs that the foreigners are doing, FUCK THAT, "I ain't picking fruit".
How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...
I suspect you are overstating it a bit. I believe one of the factors behind leave was immigration, and that people wanted to be able to control who comes in, not that they should pull up the drawbridge or that people here already should leave. A points based system like Australia, plus student and agricultural worker visas and a Swiss style demand side shop-your-employer scheme would work fine. That would take the heat out of the issue so we can all just get on with life together.
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
And in the end its all down to FOM. For a variety of reasons, cultural and economic, people have decided they want shut of the foreigners. If only anyone foreign would FUCK OFF then we could all have jobs selling things to the same foreigners. Not that the people want to do the jobs that the foreigners are doing, FUCK THAT, "I ain't picking fruit".
How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...
I suspect you are overstating it a bit. I believe one of the factors behind leave was immigration, and that people wanted to be able to control who comes in, not that they should pull up the drawbridge or that people here already should leave. A points based system like Australia, plus student and agricultural worker visas and a Swiss style demand side shop-your-employer scheme would work fine. That would take the heat out of the issue so we can all just get on with life together.
Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.
Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere
Sorry but no respect is required for stupid decision making. Politicians have to pretend this, the rest of us might as well call it for what it is. If a person you knew took an unnecessary gamble with his/her family's future you would say they were an idiot, not that you should respect their decision, when it was clearly idiotic.
But, people who voted for Brexit don't consider it idiotic at all.
Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real. - Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public. - Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term - No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve. - Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
Invading Ireland to remove the irish border issue.
What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.
It's a variant of Norway where we join the EEA and then say that because we have no space we need to implement residence permits.
Thanks. Things are now so fucked it's not even surprising that mad ideas like this are metastasising.
There are a few who want to remain who have said this was an option we could have taken up before the referendum, that we always had an opt out of FoM... Im not that convinced it would have flown
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
And in the end its all down to FOM. For a variety of reasons, cultural and economic, people have decided they want shut of the foreigners. If only anyone foreign would FUCK OFF then we could all have jobs selling things to the same foreigners. Not that the people want to do the jobs that the foreigners are doing, FUCK THAT, "I ain't picking fruit".
How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...
She's not an ignorant stupid bigot. She has a genuine and in many respects well-founded concern that (especially in some areas) there has been a rapid transformation of society which no-one voted for and no-one asked for. Now, it's true that voting to leave the EU won't help very much with that, but belittling the concerns and insulting those who have them isn't going to help either.
ANGELA Merkel has lost an unprecedented rebellion from her own MPs against her long serving parliamentary deputy. The age of Merkel coming to an end and with it sneering Macron's hopes of ever deeper EU integration
ANGELA Merkel has lost an unprecedented rebellion from her own MPs against her long serving parliamentary deputy. The age of Merkel coming to an end and with it sneering Macron's hopes of ever deeper EU integration
What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.
EEA but (big but) with FOM controls.
Essentially, I guess this was conceded to Liechtenstein because it's a row of banks with brass plate companies, a castle, and a ski lift, and not much else, so in the real world the inability to freely move there is going to affect tiny tiny numbers.
However, it does prove the four freedoms are divisible, if the EU decide they want to..........
The big worry for them is that if UK became a huge Liechtenstein in this respect (which would probably fly though the HoC) others would want the same.
Now to me the solution is - well give it to them then otherwise you are holding the Project together through fear not consent. And eventually that does not end well at all.
ANGELA Merkel has lost an unprecedented rebellion from her own MPs against her long serving parliamentary deputy. The age of Merkel coming to an end and with it sneering Macron's hopes of ever deeper EU integration
What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.
It's a variant of Norway where we join the EEA and then say that because we have no space we need to implement residence permits.
Thanks. Things are now so fucked it's not even surprising that mad ideas like this are metastasising.
Joining the EEA can only happen after we leave the EU. The treaties are explicit EU members cannot be part of the EEA.
So we have to apply to go through EFTA and they have to meet and decide whether a big politically bi-polar country should be allowed to join their small club.
There is no route to these other "clubs" without leaving our existing one. We cannot transition into them.
She's not an ignorant stupid bigot. She has a genuine and in many respects well-founded concern that (especially in some areas) there has been a rapid transformation of society which no-one voted for and no-one asked for. Now, it's true that voting to leave the EU won't help very much with that, but belittling the concerns and insulting those who have them isn't going to help either.
Its absolutely true that not everyone who voted Brexit did so because racist, nor that some don't have specific concerns. But my point about people's attitude to foreigners (albeit one I satirised) is that they are The Problem. Removing them is The Solution. Which is fine, except that it won't solve the problem that created so much migration in the first place - the increasingly sedentary British. I know that the cundrysoide wants rid of the foreigners who took our jobs. But the reason for foreigners in the first place was that nobody wanted the work, shoppers aren't prepared to pay the cost of paying higher wages on food prices, and the days of the ruddy cheeked farmer having the younger generation of plucky Brit gaily picking vegetables is long gone.
People want their town back? They're about to get it. They will be able to walk their kids round and point to the place where people used to live, point to the places where the factories used to be, point to the places where the farms used to be... As for Gillian Duffy, I grew up in Rochdale, so I am well acquainted by her type...
Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it
And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead
There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada
The thing about music is that you choose what to listen to as the mood takes you!
The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.
No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid rejecting no deal today is significant
Yes it is. Because they said the alternative to Chequers should be Canada and not no deal. So why are you taking that as them killing Canada? They're pushing it up the agenda as the backstop for when Chequers has its plug pulled. They're going against May and saying "reject Chequers and the alternative is Canada" instead of "reject Chequers and we have no deal".
She's not an ignorant stupid bigot. She has a genuine and in many respects well-founded concern that (especially in some areas) there has been a rapid transformation of society which no-one voted for and no-one asked for. Now, it's true that voting to leave the EU won't help very much with that, but belittling the concerns and insulting those who have them isn't going to help either.
Its absolutely true that not everyone who voted Brexit did so because racist, nor that some don't have specific concerns. But my point about people's attitude to foreigners (albeit one I satirised) is that they are The Problem. Removing them is The Solution. Which is fine, except that it won't solve the problem that created so much migration in the first place - the increasingly sedentary British. I know that the cundrysoide wants rid of the foreigners who took our jobs. But the reason for foreigners in the first place was that nobody wanted the work, shoppers aren't prepared to pay the cost of paying higher wages on food prices, and the days of the ruddy cheeked farmer having the younger generation of plucky Brit gaily picking vegetables is long gone.
People want their town back? They're about to get it. They will be able to walk their kids round and point to the place where people used to live, point to the places where the factories used to be, point to the places where the farms used to be... As for Gillian Duffy, I grew up in Rochdale, so I am well acquainted by her type...
The reason why building sites are full of Eastern European builders isn't because British builders didn't want the work
What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.
It's a variant of Norway where we join the EEA and then say that because we have no space we need to implement residence permits.
Thanks. Things are now so fucked it's not even surprising that mad ideas like this are metastasising.
Joining the EEA can only happen after we leave the EU. The treaties are explicit EU members cannot be part of the EEA.
So we have to apply to go through EFTA and they have to meet and decide whether a big politically bi-polar country should be allowed to join their small club.
There is no route to these other "clubs" without leaving our existing one. We cannot transition into them.
There's an even madder option going around at the moment - that we can become an "EFTA state" without joining EFTA.
She's not an ignorant stupid bigot. She has a genuine and in many respects well-founded concern that (especially in some areas) there has been a rapid transformation of society which no-one voted for and no-one asked for. Now, it's true that voting to leave the EU won't help very much with that, but belittling the concerns and insulting those who have them isn't going to help either.
Its absolutely true that not everyone who voted Brexit did so because racist, nor that some don't have specific concerns. But my point about people's attitude to foreigners (albeit one I satirised) is that they are The Problem. Removing them is The Solution. Which is fine, except that it won't solve the problem that created so much migration in the first place - the increasingly sedentary British. I know that the cundrysoide wants rid of the foreigners who took our jobs. But the reason for foreigners in the first place was that nobody wanted the work, shoppers aren't prepared to pay the cost of paying higher wages on food prices, and the days of the ruddy cheeked farmer having the younger generation of plucky Brit gaily picking vegetables is long gone.
People want their town back? They're about to get it. They will be able to walk their kids round and point to the place where people used to live, point to the places where the factories used to be, point to the places where the farms used to be... As for Gillian Duffy, I grew up in Rochdale, so I am well acquainted by her type...
I suggest that Brits didn't want to work in the fields because (a) they aren't used to such hard work, and (b) it doesn't pay well enough.
This is similar to what has happened in the fields of the USA with Mexican and Central American illegals - there is a supply of cheap labour that keeps wages down and is a self perpetuating draw for economic migration - it also keeps food prices lower. I refer you to rcs's recent video on migration. The solution to stop this is to allow illegals to shop their employers (farmers not intermediaries) in return for right to remain. This would dry up the market for illegal workers at the cost of higher food prices.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6213753/Ex-EDL-leader-Tommy-Robinson-prepares-contempt-court-hearing.html
Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected
Very significant
"Professor" Minford wants to remove industry - gift week for carpet bagger investors who get to snap up businesses and equipment to relocate abroad and then sell us back products we used to make at high profit margins.
What is bonkers is that the Conservative Party used to be the party of free trade. And now seems to be the party of hedge fund speculators and distressed asset sales. Rees-Mogg is an intelligent man. He knows that his statements about how crash brexit will be fine are demonstrably wrong. But he wants it anyway. Why might that be...?
Rudd is just desperate for attention.
I highly doubt that if TM came back with a deal saying Canada that Amber Rudd would really vote it down and cause a no deal Brexit.
24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works.
20% for Remain. Only 20%?
14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option
13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain
So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.
In terms of EU bureaucracy, the UK was always its own worst enemy with our crazy desire to gold-plate every EU directive instead of, like many of the continentals, being more laissez-faire about the whole thing.
If the Brexiteers think the EU is not accountable enough then they should have been pressing for more power for the MEPs, but doing something is always harder work than running away and doing nothing and then complaining that other people are not achieving the Brexiteer goals. They should have made Guy Verhofstadt an ally, not a bogeyman.
Unless Brexit goes really well, this ain't going to heal the divisions, but sow the seeds for them to get even worse over time.
Oh, and it's Professor Minford, not "Professor" Minford. He's an academic, and quite a distinguished one. He's also wrong, but so is Simon Wren-Lewis. Neither is driven by personal gain.
https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1045245080808960000
Well, yes.
It wouldn't be respecting the result of the 2017 General Election to hold another vote. Very little of the manifesto has been actioned and there's no requirement for another GE for years.
I do think it'd be hard for May to row back on her "No deal is better than a Canada-style deal" line, but not impossible, especially if the EU threw some morsels our way. And there are other massive obstacles, including the DUP. I just think that Canada isn't any more dead than Norway or Chequers.
Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid now against a no deal so it is not beyond a possibility they may unite to persuade TM to offer deal or referendum and the ERG would be isolated in the HOC
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/27/propaganda-of-privilege-how-labour-went-to-war-with-the-media
Not sure the Maomentumers have thought that one through.....
The difference is 4 years for the economy to re-balance or 2 years for the economy to re-balance.
Cleanest way to have done it would have been exit to EEA as a transition then complete Brexit with a Canada style deal. But doing it during transition would work too.
The DUP haven't said they won't back it.
Other than that its just May.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/27/propaganda-of-privilege-how-labour-went-to-war-with-the-media
Trump, Trump, Trump...
The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.
No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1045277864000720897
- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real.
- Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public.
- Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term
- No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve.
- Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.
Have I missed any?
On gas, water and railways they feel they are ripped off for a sub-standard service and assume all will be better under public ownership, which won’t last reality very long.
The only one for which the wider public at large share the ideology of the Labour leadership regardless of price and service quality is the NHS.
The DUP are contrarian to most things. They've absolutely rejected the backstop as Barnier wants it too.
A massive leading indicator I want to join the euro and prostrate myself beneath Selamyr’s feet and beg for absolution.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1045266765343858688
Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.
So, to summarise the practicalities:
CETA. Requires exit to EEA for a period of many years
EEA/EFTA. Permanent exit to EEA
Controlled No Deal. Panic bilateral deals such as (for example) keeping electricity flowing in NI. We're bound to miss several massive things that cause massive problems anyway.
Uncontrolled No Deal. Big Badda-Boom
Remain. We stay in the EEA and the EU
In three of the five scenarios very little (if anything) changes in March, with only the CETA option giving any prospect of eventually doing something different. And the longer it goes on (and it WILL go on. And on/ And on) the clearer it will be that the deal being negotiated is worse than the deal we currently have
That leaves a controlled crash or an uncontrolled crash.
And people still expect Theresa May / the government to continue...? Faced with the above, are we really confident that another election / plebiscite doesn't feel least worst?
HMG has been working on Chequers for 2 years and it is STILL vague and contradictory.
How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...
Essentially, I guess this was conceded to Liechtenstein because it's a row of banks with brass plate companies, a castle, and a ski lift, and not much else, so in the real world the inability to freely move there is going to affect tiny tiny numbers.
However, it does prove the four freedoms are divisible, if the EU decide they want to..........
The big worry for them is that if UK became a huge Liechtenstein in this respect (which would probably fly though the HoC) others would want the same.
Now to me the solution is - well give it to them then otherwise you are holding the Project together through fear not consent. And eventually that does not end well at all.
It's the a la carte option.
So we have to apply to go through EFTA and they have to meet and decide whether a big politically bi-polar country should be allowed to join their small club.
There is no route to these other "clubs" without leaving our existing one. We cannot transition into them.
People want their town back? They're about to get it. They will be able to walk their kids round and point to the place where people used to live, point to the places where the factories used to be, point to the places where the farms used to be... As for Gillian Duffy, I grew up in Rochdale, so I am well acquainted by her type...
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may-plan/may-losing-support-for-no-deal-brexit-if-eu-rejects-chequers-plan-report-idUSKCN1M633B
This is similar to what has happened in the fields of the USA with Mexican and Central American illegals - there is a supply of cheap labour that keeps wages down and is a self perpetuating draw for economic migration - it also keeps food prices lower. I refer you to rcs's recent video on migration. The solution to stop this is to allow illegals to shop their employers (farmers not intermediaries) in return for right to remain. This would dry up the market for illegal workers at the cost of higher food prices.
We could do the same after Brexit.