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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh truth is that the next General Election is in May 20

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  • Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2018

    Sean_F said:

    ICM, fieldwork last weekend:

    Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)

    Labour: 40% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)

    Ukip: 4% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (no change)

    Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live

    16:44

    Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.
    It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.
    Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory Conf. Everyone will scream and shout.
  • Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    ICM, fieldwork last weekend:

    Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)

    Labour: 40% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)

    Ukip: 4% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (no change)

    Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live

    16:44

    Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.
    It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.
    Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory conf. Everyone will scream and shout.
    That's the normal pattern, but at the moment support for the two main parties seem polarised and rather static, so perhaps the normal swings will be less evident this year.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    In one of the most self-evidently correct headlines the Sun has ever printed May explains that she is not a stand up comedian and she does not charm the public. Inevitably, she spoils it by claiming to be a PM.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7360847/im-not-a-stand-up-comedian-theresa-may-says-as-pm-insists-shes-right-not-to-try-and-charm-the-public/
  • Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/

    My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."

    It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Prize pillocks...the Thick of it and then some.

    Team Corbyn are in Brussels today to meet with EU negotiators, poor planning meant they had a little taxi trouble when they realised they had no means to pay.

    https://order-order.com/2018/09/27/labour-run-money/

    "you mean they don't take pounds here?" lol
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/

    My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."

    It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
    Spam - some poor animal, maybe.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:



    Maybe but the HOC are not going to accept no deal

    Parliament has two, and only two options. They can vote for or against any deal presented. Or they can no confidence the Government.

    Nothing else Parliament does will make any difference.
    Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Archer here. Often hear that Parliament will block No Deal. But, the only way to do that is to vote for a deal. Parliament cannot magically make a deal appear to vote on if none exists.
    So, how exactly can HofC prevent No Deal, given that we leave in March?
    Sorry if the answer is obvious.
    That is a whole new ball game - no deal would be a huge moment and I do not know the parliamentary procedure to stop it other than huge pressure from within the HOC for a remain - leave referendum
    Surely if we get to April it would have to be apply to rejoin/remain out?
    Yes indeed
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    ICM, fieldwork last weekend:

    Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)

    Labour: 40% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)

    Ukip: 4% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (no change)

    Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live

    16:44

    Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.
    It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.
    Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory conf. Everyone will scream and shout.
    That's the normal pattern, but at the moment support for the two main parties seem polarised and rather static, so perhaps the normal swings will be less evident this year.
    Hmm. Might be right. The parties are so far separated on the spectrum that the leap from one to 'tother is a mighty one indeed. Let's see...

    The LDs really need a polished media performer to lead them, they could be hoovering up discontents from both ends.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Anorak said:
    Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.
  • Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/

    My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."

    It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
    Trotter's Independent Traders
  • Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/

    My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."

    It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
    Many years ago when the Apple Mac was fairly new and the first clumsy version of Windows was just being launched, I gave a talk in the US where I referred to the then-common acronym WIMP: Windows, Icons, Menus, Pointer. After my talk, one of the audience got up and complained vociferously that I had been disrespectful to a fine American technology.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Roger said:

    Anorak said:
    Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.
    My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    Anorak said:

    Sean_F said:

    ICM, fieldwork last weekend:

    Conservatives: 41% (down 1 compared to ICM two weeks before)

    Labour: 40% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 9% (up 1)

    Ukip: 4% (no change)

    Greens: 3% (no change)

    Also quite a lot on how the two parties and their leaders are seen on key issues

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/sep/27/may-faces-revolt-from-40-tory-mps-if-she-opts-for-canada-brexit-deal-rudd-says-politics-live

    16:44

    Looking at the topline numbers, I think the Conservatives are 2-3$ ahead with YouGov.
    It seems pretty static TBH, with the Conservatives a little ahead.
    Expect the next few polls to give Labour quite a boost from Conference. Everyone will scream and shout. Then it will swing back after the Tory Conf. Everyone will scream and shout.
    Yes, if Theresa's speech from hell last year cannot break the stalemate, it is hard to conceive what can.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    alex. said:

    Roger said:

    Anorak said:
    Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.
    My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.
    It is Wings who are suing her so she had little choice other than to pay up or fight her corner. Dropping the case whether her backers came forward of not wasn't an option.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Talking of clumsy acronyms:

    https://www.smithson.co.uk/

    My favourite is PCMCIA: "Personal Computer Memory Card International Association."

    It soon became referred to as "People Can't Memorise Computer Industry Acronyms."
    :D
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
    Now's your chance. Pro bono but just think of the publicity
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    Roger said:

    Anorak said:
    Very interesting. If she wrote the article for the Record I'm surprised they aren't prepared to stand by her. The facts would seem reasonably clear. If she has a case -which I presume she has-then her biggest worry should be whether Wings Over Scotland have the means to pay her costs and damages.
    My reading is that the issue is as much the pulling of support after initially having promised it. She would have presumably taken a different approach given the risks if she didn't have that backing. And once the case has progressed as far as it has the other options probably aren't open to her.
    It is Wings who are suing her so she had little choice other than to pay up or fight her corner. Dropping the case whether her backers came forward of not wasn't an option.
    But that's my point. She could presumably have settled early on, and relatively cheaply, said any negative implication was unintentional etc etc

    That's not an option once the legal fees on both sides have hit treble figures.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
    Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_Hopkins
    Left them both in serious financial trouble.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Scott_P said:
    McDonnell’s economic “plan” going down well...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    dixiedean said:



    Maybe but the HOC are not going to accept no deal

    Parliament has two, and only two options. They can vote for or against any deal presented. Or they can no confidence the Government.

    Nothing else Parliament does will make any difference.
    Strangely enough, I find myself agreeing with Archer here. Often hear that Parliament will block No Deal. But, the only way to do that is to vote for a deal. Parliament cannot magically make a deal appear to vote on if none exists.
    So, how exactly can HofC prevent No Deal, given that we leave in March?
    Sorry if the answer is obvious.
    That is a whole new ball game - no deal would be a huge moment and I do not know the parliamentary procedure to stop it other than huge pressure from within the HOC for a remain - leave referendum
    Or Alternatively suspension of A50, pending more negotiations/GE/Leadership Contest
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1045348915472674816

    Arh but that was before the Supreme Leader spoke.....Labour +6 bounce incoming.
  • Mr. Sandpit, a 2 point shift is just statistical noise, I think.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    McDonnell’s economic “plan” going down well...
    Ahh but the Tory party conference is this week. Back to level pegging after that methinks. They are not quite as useless as each other but the public don't welcome being reminded how poor the choice really is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    I would hate to be in the entertainment biz....can't win.

    JK Rowling defends Nagini casting in Fantastic Beasts

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-45666350
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Mr. Sandpit, a 2 point shift is just statistical noise, I think.

    When it’s in your side’s favour it’s a clear indication of a change of direction, when it’s against your side it’s just statistical noise... ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
    Now's your chance. Pro bono but just think of the publicity
    Pro bono? For a politician? Not going to happen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
    Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_Hopkins
    Left them both in serious financial trouble.
    Madness. They almost deserve each other.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Anorak said:
    £90k to get a defamation case to the point a hearing is fixed? Wow.
    Why can't I get cases like that?
    Last year a right wing idiot and a left wing idiot managed to run up £300k in costs arguing about defamatory Tweets. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_v_Hopkins
    Left them both in serious financial trouble.
    Madness. They almost deserve each other.
    Who's the left wing idiot? (unless it's referring to Sally Bercow?).
This discussion has been closed.