politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The harsh truth is that the next General Election is in May 20

Sean_F said:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ir1tkur96o/Peston_180926_ElectionsandBrexit_W.pdf

Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.

The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.

Andy_Cooke said:

I may be being slow, but I struggle to see how there could be a Canada-style deal in existence prior to Brexit day to be voted down, up, along, or over.
Unless we propose to simply photocopy the 1,634 pages of the deal (painstakingly and carefully optimised for the Canada-EU specific comparable strengths and weaknesses through many years of compromise and discussions), we'd have to accept several years (a decade +?) of a transition period where we literally do simply Brexit in name only, but without any say at all. Not just the 20-30% of the EU acquis applicable to EEA countries, not with the institutions and shaping capability of the EEA structure - literally all the acquis with no influence.
And where would the incentive be for the EU to complete negotiations, ratification, and application in any sensible timescale? By 2025, or 2030, or whenever the deal is finally ratified, God only knows what circumstances will be here.

HYUFD said:

tpfkar said:

Away from Labour's conference there have been two nuggets of Brexit news that have really caught my eye:

1) The referral to the ECJ on whether A50 can be revoked by the UK - will really set the cat among the pigeons if so.

2) The poll on preferred outcomes quoted by Guido with a useful pie chart: https://order-order.com/2018/09/25/chequers-remain-crushed-new-poll/
Forget Guido's spin for the moment - I'm struck that there's no option scoring higher than 22% The country is fundamentally splintered on how to proceed, and no shock at all that parliament doesn't look like having a majority for anything. Also makes me wonder how a General Election would help - the parties couldn't cover this range if they tried. Maybe we need a 6 option AV-referendum to help us out?

I also can't help thinking that Labour have done what the Tories wanted them to on Brexit this week. Both looking like they are backsliding so the Tories can paint themselves as the only true champions of Brexit, but also keeping the door open to a way out via a 2nd referendum, if the Tories need an emergency escape.

A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sean_F said:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ir1tkur96o/Peston_180926_ElectionsandBrexit_W.pdf

Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.

The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.

The key question is do you trust Corbyn/ McDonnell not so much the policies

HYUFD said:

A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win

This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Very significant

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win

This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Very significant

I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.

Beverley_C said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Beverley_C said:

Nothing about Brexit surprises me any more.

I quite fancy the idea of a crash-out, no-deal Brexit - just to see how the ERG et al justify the shambles. It may be the only way to burn out the ultra-nationalist infection in the Tory party.

There isn't an ultra-nationalist infection in the party, that's a complete misunderstanding of what drives the ultra-Brexiteers. It's much more a frustration with the what is seen as a remote undemocratic bureaucracy running our lives but beyond accountability. Personally I think they are unrealistic, but they're not ultra-nationalist or narrow-minded in the sense in which they are sometimes portrayed.

I am sorry, but that is complete nonsense. The EU has plenty of directly elected MEPs and our own elected heads of government meet to decide overall directions and policies. The Commission, like our civil service, is not elected but I do not hear the Brexiteers yelling for the UK civil service to be disbanded. Our own appointed (not elected) Sir Humphrey's have always wielded power in their own way.

In terms of EU bureaucracy, the UK was always its own worst enemy with our crazy desire to gold-plate every EU directive instead of, like many of the continentals, being more laissez-faire about the whole thing.

If the Brexiteers think the EU is not accountable enough then they should have been pressing for more power for the MEPs, but doing something is always harder work than running away and doing nothing and then complaining that other people are not achieving the Brexiteer goals. They should have made Guy Verhofstadt an ally, not a bogeyman.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win

This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Very significant

williamglenn said:

AlastairMeeks said:

As others have said, something will have to give. If the government does continue to 2022, it's not going to be a happy ship.

If we did have a second referendum resulting in a big win for Remain, some of the more dedicated Brexiteers might decide to bow out of politics.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?

RochdalePioneers said:

At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"

RochdalePioneers said:

28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option

JohnRussell said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

The Labour leader also showed his attitude to the media by simply skipping much of the press round, which usually accompanied a party conference speech, such as a traditional interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/27/propaganda-of-privilege-how-labour-went-to-war-with-the-media

Trump, Trump, Trump...

He was so touchy when Jon Snow questioned him it was incredible.

Andy_Cooke said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

A Canada type FTA deal again top on the Guido BMG poll with 28%, then WTO terms on 24%, then Remain on 20%, then Chequers on 14%, then Norway on 13%

28% for Canada - we don't have time to agree even the outline of how we rewrite that for the UK - not an option
24% for WTO. Default is to crash out but most advocates of WTO don't know what WTO stands for never mind how it works.
20% for Remain. Only 20%?
14% for Chequers. Rejected on both sides of the channel - not an option
13% for Norway - the only realistic alternative to crash Brexit or remain

So 42% back undeliverable options, 24% back the bullet in the brain option, 33% want as soft a Brexit as we can get.

Canada is possible but only with a new general election and Tory majority

Can't have that.
It wouldn't be respecting the result of the 2017 General Election to hold another vote. Very little of the manifesto has been actioned and there's no requirement for another GE for years.

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?

I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it

RochdalePioneers said:

At which point does HMG give up the pretence that no deal crash brexit is something they are prepared to accept? At least in public, there is no way they are sat there in private saying "it won't be so bad"

Sean_F said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sean_F said:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ir1tkur96o/Peston_180926_ElectionsandBrexit_W.pdf

Labour's policies on nationalisation are popular; but the top line figures still show a Conservative lead. It's similar to the problem the Conservatives had under Blair.

The poll also shows a big majority against a second referendum.

The key question is do you trust Corbyn/ McDonnell not so much the policies

Many of Labour's policies on public services, nationalisation etc. are popular. It's Corbyn's record, his attitude to security and foreign policy, the whiff of anti-Semitism, fear of the extreme left in general, that hold the party back.

Andy_Cooke said:

Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:

- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real.
- Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public.
- Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term
- No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve.
- Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.

Have I missed any?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?

I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it

Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.

The DUP haven't said they won't back it.

Other than that its just May.

The DUP published a strong rejection of it last night but you seem to be in denial

JohnRussell said:

williamglenn said:

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

Those 40 Conservative MPs would also vote for a second EU referendum as Rudd confirmed last night if the alternative was No Deal which polling shows Remain would likely win

This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Very significant

I actually feel like a Norway deal would be the hardest sell domestically, despite perhaps having the most support among parliament. Getting it through would require May not to be no confidenced and Labour to vote for it in huge numbers, all against the backdrop of Leavers going absolutely apoplectic. Plus it would go against everything May has said for her entire premiership.

Yes, the only significance of talk about Norway at this stage is that it indicates that people are looking for a way out of this, not that Norway is the answer.

I am just tucking into a chicken sandwich for lunch, how much of an indicator that we wont leave the EU do you make that?

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?

I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it

Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.

The DUP haven't said they won't back it.

Other than that its just May.

The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.

Andy_Cooke said:

Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:

- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real.
- Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public.
- Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term
- No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve.
- Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.

Have I missed any?

Andy_Cooke said:

Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:

- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real.
- Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public.
- Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term
- No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve.
- Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.

Have I missed any?

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stereotomy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

What mood music? You mean TM saying she won't back it?

I think he means May, Rudd and the DUP all saying they won't back it

Rudd is just a Europhiliac equivalent of David Davis.

The DUP haven't said they won't back it.

Other than that its just May.

The DUP said they weren't sure if it was deliberately vague or just wasn't thought-through. Hardly an endorsement.

Hardly a 'strong rejection' either.

Is there a special Brexiteer dictionary where "vague and contradictory" and "not something we would support" translates into "we like the sound of this"?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1045266765343858688

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.

Bromptonaut said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

But about 40 would vote down Chequers, plus the EU won't agree to Chequers anyway, so isn't Chequers dead?

I highly doubt that if TM came back with a deal saying Canada that Amber Rudd would really vote it down and cause a no deal Brexit.

I think we can see a big move away from Canada and to somewhere between Norway and Chequers

Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid now against a no deal so it is not beyond a possibility they may unite to persuade TM to offer deal or referendum and the ERG would be isolated in the HOC

Like many on here you persist in assuming that the choice of which type of deal/no deal is the U.K.’s to make.

Andy_Cooke said:

Anyway, we seem to have few options and all of them bad:

- Attempt a Canada-style deal. This would take many years (just look at how long CETA took, and that's still not fully operational), with an associated transition period of true BINO. Few in Parliament seem to want it, and the issues with Ireland/Northern Ireland/Irish Sea borders are real.
- Transition to EEA. This could be done quickly and relatively easily (and painlessly) and there's possibly a majority in Parliament for it, but it's a hard sell to the public, especially with FoM (which may be overcomable with the Liechtenstein scenario). Possibly the least popular option with the public.
- Multiple minimal deal Brexit ("controlled No Deal"): Massive queues at ports, significant issues with trade (including supply chain issues that would propagate throughout the domestic economy), very few preparations are really done, would cause serious issues that wouldn't be solved in the near term
- No Deal ("crash out No Deal"). Really really bad, colossal queues at ports, serious damage to trade and domestic economy, few preparations really done, would cause huge issues that would take many years to resolve.
- Remain after all. Now launching Leavers-1 to orbit, serious anger, loss of faith in democracy, minimal economic issues, political and social issues that led to the Brexit vote could be swept under the table.

Have I missed any?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.

Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere

Richard_Nabavi said:

Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.

Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere

Sorry but no respect is required for stupid decision making. Politicians have to pretend this, the rest of us might as well call it for what it is. If a person you knew took an unnecessary gamble with his/her family's future you would say they were an idiot, not that you should respect their decision, when it was clearly idiotic.

RochdalePioneers said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Incidentally I think you aren't quite right on a couple of points. The principal objection to a Canada-style deal, other than as you say the Irish problem, is the supply-chain issue for the car and aerospace industries. Also the transition to EEA certainly couldn't be done quickly: it would require the unanimous formal consent of 31 countries, and a lot of negotiation over exact terms, payments etc. And there is zero chance that FoM could be fudged in an EEA scenario; it would be identical to remaining in the EU in that respect.

And in the end its all down to FOM. For a variety of reasons, cultural and economic, people have decided they want shut of the foreigners. If only anyone foreign would FUCK OFF then we could all have jobs selling things to the same foreigners. Not that the people want to do the jobs that the foreigners are doing, FUCK THAT, "I ain't picking fruit".

How we get there doesn't matter. What else might happen doesn't matter. Practical facts, evidence, sanity doesn't matter. We just want our country back. And woe betide any politician and any party who points out to the bigoted woman that she is an ignorant stupid bigot...

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mr NorthWales, re your comment some minutes goa about "blaming" the 52%; I don't mind blaming them. I am not a politician so I don't have to pretend I don't think they were stupid.. It doesn't mean they are stupid all the time, just on this particular occasion. It was an act of national stupidity. Just because it appeared democratic doesn't mean it is beyond reproach. It happens in lots of countries including the US with their vote for the Psycho-in-Chief.

Yes but respect is needed for both sides. Name calling gets us nowhere

Sorry but no respect is required for stupid decision making. Politicians have to pretend this, the rest of us might as well call it for what it is. If a person you knew took an unnecessary gamble with his/her family's future you would say they were an idiot, not that you should respect their decision, when it was clearly idiotic.

Dura_Ace said:

What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

archer101au said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Amber Rudd has said there are 40 conservative mps who would vote down Canada, about the same number as ERG who want it

And just adds to the mood music, Canada is dead

There is no chance that large numbers of Tory MPs would vote down Canada if it was the deal that May bought back. What could they possibly accomplish? There is no majority for anything else so they would be guaranteeing no deal instead. This is about the only scenario where I can see an early GE with the hardcore remainers kicked out and an election to allow the Tories approve Canada. A Canada deal would command majority support in the country assuming there have been no stupid concessions (eg backstops) going along with it.

Rudd is just desperate for attention.

The mood music over the last 24 hours has killed Canada

The thing about music is that you choose what to listen to as the mood takes you!

The issue that is 'killing' Canada is that May won't negotiate it, simply because it would require her to admit she was wrong about the necessity for a backstop. I completely believe that the EU will drop the backstop and accept CETA if the alternative is no deal. But if May keeps pushing Chequers, this is never going to be discussed.

No deal is looking like a virtual certainty at the moment. We can all come up with outlandish scenarios about how our preferred option might occur, but the reality is that neither side are actually even arguing over a deal that might happen - they are not even negotiating. Despite all the talk, nothing has happened for nine months and the most likely scenario is that nothing is going to happen now.

Raab, Gove, Hunt and Javid rejecting no deal today is significant

Beverley_C said:

Dura_Ace said:

williamglenn said:

Dura_Ace said:

What's the "Liechtenstein Scenario"? This particular arcane wrinkle of Brexit seems to have passed me by.

It's a variant of Norway where we join the EEA and then say that because we have no space we need to implement residence permits.

Thanks. Things are now so fucked it's not even surprising that mad ideas like this are metastasising.

Joining the EEA can only happen after we leave the EU. The treaties are explicit EU members cannot be part of the EEA.

So we have to apply to go through EFTA and they have to meet and decide whether a big politically bi-polar country should be allowed to join their small club.

There is no route to these other "clubs" without leaving our existing one. We cannot transition into them.