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HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Germany, France, Sweden etc have non contributory benefits just contributory benefits too, which National Insurance arguably is part of to some degree (eg to claim JSA if you have savings over the threshold you need NI contributions). It is only really Italy and Poland and Spain which have barely any non contributory benefits

We may not always agree but you do have amazing political knowledge

Thankyou although really just things I pick up rather than being any great oracle

And you have a great interest in politics which of course shows in your posts

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The amazing issue for me is the blind loyalty of those wanting to remain in the EU who never say a word of criticism against the EU. It is almost as if they worship at the altar of Brussels.They would be far more credible if they would express their opinions on the negatives arising from the EU and how it could be made more accountable.

The EU has benefited tremendously from our involvement, and will change direction now that we can no longer participate. Of course we did not always get our way, but we changed the whole course of the EU project.

Brexit is Suez all over again. Suez marked our end as a world power, Brexit marks our end as a European power. The first was inevitable, but the second was our choice.

I can agree with some of that but I do not think our place as a very important nation to Europe changes at all

Of course Brexit reduces our influence in Europe! that is the whole point of withdrawing the bit of Sovreignty that we had pooled. We have chosen to withdraw from the European political, social, and cultural field. We can watch from the cheap seats, but not influence what goes on.

And how much influence did we have in the EU ?

How many times was the UK on the winning side of an EU vote with France and Germany on the losing side ?

How often were they on different sides?

I think it was De Gaulle who said that the concept of 'Europe' was an alliance between France and Germany.

And that is what in reality the EU is.

How many times have we heard that "France will need an ally against Germany" or "Germany will need an ally against France" ?

Yet France and Germany continued as allies and the UK was the odd country out.

Things have moved on from De Gaulles time in the 1960s when there were just six countries in the EEC. Inevitably Germany and France have more weight than most, but so did we.

The truth is that the EU is greater than the sum of its parts.

Yet the alliance of France and Germany is still the mentality of Brussels.

Still the mentality of the Brexiteers you mean! The problem is that many Britons have always regarded the EU as a foreign power, rather than a part of ourselves.

I have no opinion on exhaust regulations, but clearly Britain could have argued the case for punishment of the German carmakers if we had wanted to.

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

trawl said:

Rochdale “Parliament won't vote for exit to EEA. Won't vote for no deal (I expect a vote compelling the government not to accept a no deal scenario). Yet they are your choices...”

I need to have a nose at the legislation. How do you see that working? Parliament voted to trigger A50 which sets a timescale and includes no deal. If there is no deal and the two years expires what is the effect of a Parliamentary vote not to accept it?

Yeah! Hence the massive constitutional crisis we are in!

What happens when MPs reject all options available? Reject extending the timetable? Reject a new referendum? But vote that they have confidence in Her Majesty's Government? What happens when despite all that the Prime Minister refuses to resign?

MPs won't vote for exit to EEA. Have a legally binding meaningful vote which will reject no deal and compel one of the options they have already rejected. Won't vote for a referendum to hand this critis back to the voters. And despite it all probably won't vote no confidence in the government. Nor will May face a viable challenge from her MPs.

A Prime Minister and a government literally stuck in office unable to do anything at all other than make petulant speeches about how crap a negotiator she is. Yet whilst stuck in office unable to do anything may work at another time, at this time we cannot have that...

You can’t negotiate when the other side refuses to.

Unless the EU is prepared to be collaborative we need to walk away

It’s stupid and idiotic of them. But unfortunately they have been misled into believing that Brexit can be reversed

You are putting your own interest in not losing face above the interests of your country. That is shameful.

Is there anything the EU could say which you would say no to ?

Yes, if they said Article 50 couldn't be revoked.

So they could demand anything from this country and you would say yes as long as they let us be part of their club.

That's not what I said, and it's not a 'club'.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043406978343755776

"Jeremy’s spent his whole political life campaigning to get us out of the EU and now there’s growing pressure on Labour to support a second referendum."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/21/jeremy-corbyns-journey-dejected-outsider-idol-left-threatening/

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Germany, France, Sweden etc have non contributory benefits just contributory benefits too, which National Insurance arguably is part of to some degree (eg to claim JSA if you have savings over the threshold you need NI contributions). It is only really Italy and Poland and Spain which have barely any non contributory benefits

We may not always agree but you do have amazing political knowledge

Thankyou although really just things I pick up rather than being any great oracle

And you have a great interest in politics which of course shows in your posts

As do you BigG

felix said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Germany, France, Sweden etc have non contributory benefits just contributory benefits too, which National Insurance arguably is part of to some degree (eg to claim JSA if you have savings over the threshold you need NI contributions). It is only really Italy and Poland and Spain which have barely any non contributory benefits

And all of those are magnets for migrants - like the UK

I think that all welfare states struggle with entitlements in a globalised world, and will continue to do so. EU migrants do have the highest employment rates though, and are by and large young and healthy so infrequent users of the NHS, except maternity.

murali_s said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Dura_Ace said:

MarqueeMark said:

But the EU can't prevent us being super-Singpore if we have crash-out Brexit. They have no control over the tax rates we set, the minimal red tape.There means of stopping it is in a reasonable negotiation, where some of that freedom is negotiated away. Yet the EU strategy is currently so crap it is going to result in the very thing they fear.

Singapore in the Atlantic is never going to be a credible threat because it would take multiple terms of right wing tory governments to achieve it. There isn't going to be one more term of tory government after Brexit never mind multiple ones. The post Brexit political and economic landscape is going to be defined by a Labour government. We can be Super-Belarus if that holds any appeal.

Yes, Brexit was built on the cry for an end of austerity in the regions, and parts of the country most dependent on government support. Not just geographically, but also pensioners, the poorly educated, the low skilled. They voted to bash the corporate elite, not to elevate them.

To those people a Corbynite protectionist Peoples Brexit is more appealing than a Hannanite freebooting one. If they wanted free trade they would have voted to remain in the organisation that we do most of our Free Trade through.

I think the manufacturing sector makes up approximately double the proportion of the Singapore economy that it does in the UK.

Now if that could be achieved in this country it certainly would boost the Leave voting areas.

If.

Yes we could try to emulate Singapores highly educated, industrious and skilled population in the Council Estates of Redcar, but can you not see a flaw in that plan?

There is a reason that there are very few Singapores in the world, and quite a lot of East Timors.

Its a generations old problem.

And requires change in many aspects of UK society and economy.

The magic money tree being cut down being one of them.

It's not just a money thing! It's cultural too - c.f. educational aspiration (and attainment) between immigrant working class and the indigenous working class.

There are variances within different groups though.

Working class immigrant communities in the West Midlands and Northern mill towns aren't noted for their educational achievements.

Nor I suspect will East European Roma.

felix said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Germany, France, Sweden etc have non contributory benefits just contributory benefits too, which National Insurance arguably is part of to some degree (eg to claim JSA if you have savings over the threshold you need NI contributions). It is only really Italy and Poland and Spain which have barely any non contributory benefits

And all of those are magnets for migrants - like the UK

So clearly are Italy and Spain given the boats from Africa headed there.

Australia and New Zealand also have similar welfare systems to the UK, however Australia in particular has tightly controlled migration policies

CarlottaVance said:

An important factor in why the referendum was lost before it was called - even our political classes only ever viewed it on a transactional basis.

Exactly.

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

But they do freedom of movement. I thought the pluses showed add ons to basic deal, even when they are minuses for us? As in +British beef +sour kraut +Spanish tomotoe -French blue cheese is on the menu whilst we like the beef and cheese, but not with the sour kraut?

CarlottaVance said:

Institute for Government report on state of play with 6 months to go:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/brexit-six-months-to-go-final-WEB.pdf

I don't really have the ability to focus today but I have skimmed thru it and will read it later. It seems a good (and frightening!) read, thank you.

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

Given the Internet will always have a bigger range to choose from than even the most diverse High Street that is no surprise. However business rate cuts would help High Street shops for those who like to still browse before they buy while enjoying a coffee or lunch at the same time

We shop at Debenhams regularly and did yesterday. It was inescapable that there was virtually no one in the store. Far more assistants than customers

Even so I expect even Debenhams now employs more people in its warehouses processing online deliveries and in its vans delivering them than in its actual stores nowadays, Amazon of course now has just warehouses and deliverers with no store at all and a few techies to manage its online service

Amazon will soon be virtually all AI.

Sadly the High Street of department stores will be extinct within 5 years'

If the High Street disappears almost entirely and Amazon becomes virtually all AI there will be virtually no jobs at all for most people, especially with the rise of self service supermarket checkouts and automation of most manufacturing jobs too. Hence the argument for a universal basic income and tax on robots would become inevitable

Nah. The bell of universal mass unemployment has been rung dozens of times before over the last 300 years. it's because people are very good at spotting which jobs will go (because it's easy) and terrible at forecasting the new ones that might be created.

We used to employ millions on the land, over a million in domestic service and virtually a million on the railways, now all in tiny numbers, but we created management consultants, software designers and personal trainers.

Future jobs will be based much more on leisure and "human" interaction services, and we'll probably reduce our working hours further.

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

trawl said:

Rochdale “Parliament won't vote for exit to EEA. Won't vote for no deal (I expect a vote compelling the government not to accept a no deal scenario). Yet they are your choices...”

I need to have a nose at the legislation. How do you see that working? Parliament voted to trigger A50 which sets a timescale and includes no deal. If there is no deal and the two years expires what is the effect of a Parliamentary vote not to accept it?

Yeah! Hence the massive constitutional crisis we are in!

What happens when MPs reject all options available? Reject extending the timetable? Reject a new referendum? But vote that they have confidence in Her Majesty's Government? What happens when despite all that the Prime Minister refuses to resign?

MPs won't vote for exit to EEA. Have a legally binding meaningful vote which will reject no deal and compel one of the options they have already rejected. Won't vote for a referendum to hand this critis back to the voters. And despite it all probably won't vote no confidence in the government. Nor will May face a viable challenge from her MPs.

A Prime Minister and a government literally stuck in office unable to do anything at all other than make petulant speeches about how crap a negotiator she is. Yet whilst stuck in office unable to do anything may work at another time, at this time we cannot have that...

You can’t negotiate when the other side refuses to.

Unless the EU is prepared to be collaborative we need to walk away

It’s stupid and idiotic of them. But unfortunately they have been misled into believing that Brexit can be reversed

You are putting your own interest in not losing face above the interests of your country. That is shameful.

Is there anything the EU could say which you would say no to ?

Yes, if they said Article 50 couldn't be revoked.

So they could demand anything from this country and you would say yes as long as they let us be part of their club.

That's not what I said, and it's not a 'club'.

So what would you say no to if the EU demanded it ?

Is there anything financial or economic they could ask that would make you say its time to leave the EU ?

I think that's a ridiculous way to frame the question. I would either support the existence of the EU or not, or think it should be set up a certain way or not, but I would never support unilaterally leaving it except for national security reasons.

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The amazing issue for me is the blind loyalty of those wanting to remain in the EU who never say a word of criticism against the EU. It is almost as if they worship at the altar of Brussels.They would be far more credible if they would express their opinions on the negatives arising from the EU and how it could be made more accountable.

I have lots of criticisms of the EU. However, they hardly coincide at all with the criticisms that come up in relation to British politics, which are generally dumb and uninformed, and hostile to solving the actual problems.

Simple example: There's not enough democratic accountability over the Commission, which is several layers of indirection away from the voters. The way to solve this is to gradually politicize the European level and appoint people based on election results. But when pro-democracy people in the EU try to do that by having pan-European groups put up candidates who take part in debates and have the winner get the job, the British right try to sabotage it and appoint someone who wasn't a candidate.

The common theme there is that Britons don't want a pan-European level of governance over them, be it elected, non-elected or otherwise.

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

SouthamObserver said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I can agree with some of that but I do not think our place as a very important nation to Europe changes at all

Of course Brexit reduces our influence in Europe! that is the whole point of withdrawing the bit of Sovreignty that we had pooled. We have chosen to withdraw from the European political, social, and cultural field. We can watch from the cheap seats, but not influence what goes on.

And how much influence did we have in the EU ?

How many times was the UK on the winning side of an EU vote with France and Germany on the losing side ?

How often were they on different sides?

I think it was De Gaulle who said that the concept of 'Europe' was an alliance between France and Germany.

And that is what in reality the EU is.

How many times have we heard that "France will need an ally against Germany" or "Germany will need an ally against France" ?

Yet France and Germany continued as allies and the UK was the odd country out.

Things have moved on from De Gaulles time in the 1960s when there were just six countries in the EEC. Inevitably Germany and France have more weight than most, but so did we.

The truth is that the EU is greater than the sum of its parts.

Yet the alliance of France and Germany is still the mentality of Brussels.

Still the mentality of the Brexiteers you mean! The problem is that many Britons have always regarded the EU as a foreign power, rather than a part of ourselves.

I have no opinion on exhaust regulations, but clearly Britain could have argued the case for punishment of the German carmakers if we had wanted to.

Many Britons including British governments - the lack of any positive case made for the EU in the Referendum typifying that.

I'm rather disgusted though not surprised that the British government has been so supine about the deaths caused by illegal vehicle emissions - contrast with the attitude to Grenfall.

But pandering to the powerful is the default attitude of British governments.

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1043404086455009280

Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal

I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.

He would lose the DUP in that case.

felix said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Germany, France, Sweden etc have non contributory benefits just contributory benefits too, which National Insurance arguably is part of to some degree (eg to claim JSA if you have savings over the threshold you need NI contributions). It is only really Italy and Poland and Spain which have barely any non contributory benefits

And all of those are magnets for migrants - like the UK

Apart from a non-contributory welfare system there are other factors which make the UK attractive to migrants:

The English language
A consumption based economy
Governments which wanted house prices to rise

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

So what would you say no to if the EU demanded it ?

Is there anything financial or economic they could ask that would make you say its time to leave the EU ?

I would never support unilaterally leaving it except for national security reasons.

What sort of national security reasons would turn you into a Leaver, William?

For example if a Hitler figure rose to power and managed to face down and subvert the European institutions, although even in that case I'd want to re-establish the EU after the threat was dealt with.

CarlottaVance said:

viewcode said:

CarlottaVance said:

Institute for Government report on state of play with 6 months to go:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/brexit-six-months-to-go-final-WEB.pdf

I don't really have the ability to focus today but I have skimmed thru it and will read it later. It seems a good (and frightening!) read, thank you.

Short version - "Lots to do, lots done and government is picking up the pace. Subject to Parliament probably on track for an agreed exit. No deal - a legislative nightmare"

Thank you.

The UK government needs to prepare a strategy for a tumbleweed silence from the EU in response to May's challenge to them.

Best to go flat out for a WTO Brexit now with no divorce bill. Don't waste any more time.

If the EU then decide to make some concessions in exchange for some divorce payments then so much the better.

WhisperingOracle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

John_M said:

WhisperingOracle said:

"Don't mistake British politeness for weakness, hunt tells eu"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

More posturing, purely for domestic Murdoch/Mail consumption. Each bit of a grandstanding, like Tusk's "cherry" tweet and this nonsense from Hunt, brings a no-deal 'accident' closer.

McDonnell is going to face an almighty row at conference about the referendum, incidentally.

Yes, posturing, that's why it's an article in the Guardian, first port of call for all ardent Daily Mail readers.

I read the guardian on line regularly as well as my mail plus

The comments following McDonnell's commitment to Brexit are a joy to behold. Really big trouble looming if they are to be believed

Yes, I think the leadership have underestimated the level of potential bust-up. This may be very helpful for the tories, and useful to deflect attention from their splits in the upcoming two weeks.

How long can the facade of Labour covering up the cracks continue?

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043406978343755776

"Jeremy’s spent his whole political life campaigning to get us out of the EU and now there’s growing pressure on Labour to support a second referendum."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/21/jeremy-corbyns-journey-dejected-outsider-idol-left-threatening/

Except McIRA has ruled that out again this morning, its as if Jezza doesn't think the EU is a good thing...

Ishmael_Z said:

Who else thinks that "Don't mistake politeness for weakness" sounds a lot too much like "Beware the anger of a quiet man"?

Yes, it's all very dubious. Strong leaders don't let themselves be made a fool of, and then act tough when everyone has left the room.

One of those little memes 'the anti-Tory majority' does not survive contact with actual evidence. The Tories are as liked and loathed as Labour:

What is your view about voting for each of the following parties [at the next General election]? Con : Lab

Definitely/Seriously consider: 39 / 39
Might: 10 / 11
Definitely not/Probably not: 50 / 50

(Lib Dems: 11 / 16 / 61 )

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9rte0e589p/People'sVote_180905_LabGains.pdf

murali_s said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043406978343755776

"Jeremy’s spent his whole political life campaigning to get us out of the EU and now there’s growing pressure on Labour to support a second referendum."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/21/jeremy-corbyns-journey-dejected-outsider-idol-left-threatening/

Except McIRA has ruled that out again this morning.

When May is deposed next year, I would advise the new Tory leader to call a GE straight away - good chance they would win handsomely.

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Gardenwalker said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Nemtynakht said:

Lots of May haters on here unsurprisingly unhappy with her performance. Outside of political obsessives most people don’t really care. May hasn’t got many options if she is going to respect the referendum result and most people wouldn’t trust Corbyn to do any better.

If the EU want to do a deal or reverse the result, someone had better tell Tusk to stop taking the piss out of us - it’s poor form when Russia do it.

I don’t hate Theresa May. I find aspects of her admirable. But yesterday she blustered without a plan. She’s had no plan for a very long time and reality is biting now.

Not entirely fair. Chequers was a plan.
However, she failed to understand that the EU does not do negotiation with supplicants.

What a lovely and charming organisation the EU is.

Yes it is. Like any club, privileges are for members only. It really is not difficult to understand.

Doing a deal with us must involve giving us something, so your statement makes no sense - if it was as clear as 'if you are in you get this, if you are out you do not' there would have been no negotation to undertake as far as the EU are concerned. I'll have to put you down as another pro EUer who thinks the EU are acting like fools. After all, they are offering us privileges of the club in seeking a deal with us.

The negotiation is on terms of leaving, and how 3rd party status is arrived at. When we are a 3rd party, there are a variety of possible relationships, helpfully summarised into a single powerpoint slide by Barnier. May's redlines then define that relationship.

https://twitter.com/a_e_a_p/status/1042868782413303809?s=19

We could agree to a Canada style Agreement easily if the EU didn’t demand the dismemberment of the UK

another_richard said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Off Topic

This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.

Does that include on line

No, that is retail sales in store.

Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.

Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
Turnover 2017 £2.4bn

JD Sports overtook Marks & Spencer’s market capitalisation recently. Make of that what you will.

Steve Hilton asked would you have advised David Cameron not to hold a Referendum?

https://youtu.be/7JWxrMw4LfQ?t=5m3s

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

We could agree to a Canada style Agreement easily if the EU didn’t demand the dismemberment of the UK

Reality demands it, and the good name of the British government demands it. We are committed to allow the people of the island of Ireland to choose their own arrangements "without external impediment", which means trying to use a vote in Great Britain to overturn a Remain vote in Northern Ireland and impose new economic borders is morally repugnant.

Reality doesn't demand anything. This is politics, not physics.

Reality in the sense that if you actually tried to do it in the real world, it would not end well.

The real Rachael Swindon:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/heres-the-woman-behind-britains-most-divisive-twitter

Apologies for the lack of an article this morning. My son's not been well these last two days (temperature 40C at times), and we've spent the last two evenings in A&E. Fingers crossed, he's over the worst of it.

I'll see if I've time to do something later this weekend.

david_herdson said:

Apologies for the lack of an article this morning. My son's not been well these last two days (temperature 40C at times), and we've spent the last two evenings in A&E. Fingers crossed, he's over the worst of it.

I'll see if I've time to do something later this weekend.

Very, very worrying Mr H. Hope all is well now.

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

edmundintokyo said:

rottenborough said:

This.

The EU Might Come To Regret Weakening Theresa May At This Crucial Brexit Juncture


https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-speech_uk_5ba51748e4b069d5f9d26ae5?c4v&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Have they weakened Theresa May? That's not how it looks from the headlines.

She does her whole Thatcher thing, that gets her through the party conference, and everyone goes back to negotiating.

Perhaps - it might just give her a couple weeks despite from coup talk as she sounds harder for s bit, but as the EU appear to be genuine that the problems are on indivisible red lines not meeting, I don't know what May could pivot back to in negotiations post conference. Sure, it would mean even less time for rebels to seek to oust her if she waters Chequers down even more, but they can still just vote it down with Labour, so trying to haggle over something like but not Chequers is meaningless unless the EU has been bluffing, and I don't think they have been. May probably has, but lacks numbers to give in even if she tries.

Unless the EU can offer something in return for a cspulation which she might be able to sell. May be.but what could that be?

Tim_B said:

At lunchtime today I was asked out of the blue if I thought Brexit would increase the chance of Irish unification.

My response was that as I've not been following brexit closely I honestly have no idea.

But it's in interesting question. Will it?

Yes. It's not certain but it creates chaos and puts s lot of pressure on so definitely increases the chance.

If technological solutions work in the “sea border” and between Spain and the Canaries, why won’t they work between Eire and NI?

Because technology = infrastructure. It's not difficult.

Not necessarily at the border

Trusted traveller with spot checks would do

The British position is weak. We are committed to a course of action that makes things worse and we want others to rescue us from the effects. People who' are also damaged by our action.

It has nothing to do with politeness.

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

Given the Internet will always have a bigger range to choose from than even the most diverse High Street that is no surprise. However business rate cuts would help High Street shops for those who like to still browse before they buy while enjoying a coffee or lunch at the same time

We shop at Debenhams regularly and did yesterday. It was inescapable that there was virtually no one in the store. Far more assistants than customers

Even so I expect even Debenhams now employs more people in its warehouses processing online deliveries and in its vans delivering them than in its actual stores nowadays, Amazon of course now has just warehouses and deliverers with no store at all and a few techies to manage its online service

Amazon will soon be virtually all AI.

Sadly the High Street of department stores will be extinct within 5 years'

If the High Street disappears almost entirely and Amazon becomes virtually all AI there will be virtually no jobs at all for most people, especially with the rise of self service supermarket checkouts and automation of most manufacturing jobs too. Hence the argument for a universal basic income and tax on robots would become inevitable

Nah. The bell of universal mass unemployment has been rung dozens of times before over the last 300 years. it's because people are very good at spotting which jobs will go (because it's easy) and terrible at forecasting the new ones that might be created.

We used to employ millions on the land, over a million in domestic service and virtually a million on the railways, now all in tiny numbers, but we created management consultants, software designers and personal trainers.

Future jobs will be based much more on leisure and "human" interaction services, and we'll probably reduce our working hours further.

'If working hours are reduced substantially something will have to replace the lost earnings when not working and most people are not going to have the IQ to be software designers and management consultants'

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Not entirely. It worked fine before Maastricht invented the concept of the “EU Citizen”

Casino_Royale said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1043406978343755776

If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.

If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.

Charles said:

felix said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

CarlottaVance said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181

Silly

Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.

So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.

I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

Waiting in the wings.

I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.

What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?

It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).

When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?

No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.

I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.

The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.

Not entirely. It worked fine before Maastricht invented the concept of the “EU Citizen”

I am proud to be an EU citizen Charlie!

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

trawl said:

Rochdale “Parliament won't vote for exit to EEA. Won't vote for no deal (I expect a vote compelling the government not to accept a no deal scenario). Yet they are your choices...”

I need to have a nose at the legislation. How do you see that working? Parliament voted to trigger A50 which sets a timescale and includes no deal. If there is no deal and the two years expires what is the effect of a Parliamentary vote not to accept it?

Yeah! Hence the massive constitutional crisis we are in!

What happens when MPs reject all options available? Reject extending the timetable? Reject a new referendum? But vote that they have confidence in Her Majesty's Government? What happens when despite all that the Prime Minister refuses to resign?

MPs won't vote for exit to EEA. Have a legally binding meaningful vote which will reject no deal and compel one of the options they have already rejected. Won't vote for a referendum to hand this critis back to the voters. And despite it all probably won't vote no confidence in the government. Nor will May face a viable challenge from her MPs.

A Prime Minister and a government literally stuck in office unable to do anything at all other than make petulant speeches about how crap a negotiator she is. Yet whilst stuck in office unable to do anything may work at another time, at this time we cannot have that...

You can’t negotiate when the other side refuses to.

Unless the EU is prepared to be collaborative we need to walk away

It’s stupid and idiotic of them. But unfortunately they have been misled into believing that Brexit can be reversed

You are putting your own interest in not losing face above the interests of your country. That is shameful.

Tetchy today William?

I’m not going to lose face one way or the other. And we disagree about what is in the best interests of our country

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1043404086455009280

Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal

I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.

Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today and he also burned his bridges with the ERG by backing Chequers.

No, sorry if May goes Davis is the only real viable alternative, he opposed Chequers from the beginning so he can scrap it pretty quickly and return to the UK stays in the single market and customs union in a transition period and try for a Canada style FTA in the transition as he was working on with Barnier before Chequers.

Davis is the only candidate who can bridge the ERG and EU divide and have a policy that can keep the DUP on side for now too

You've moved on from Boris, then?

williamglenn said:

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

Charles said:

We could agree to a Canada style Agreement easily if the EU didn’t demand the dismemberment of the UK

Reality demands it, and the good name of the British government demands it. We are committed to allow the people of the island of Ireland to choose their own arrangements "without external impediment", which means trying to use a vote in Great Britain to overturn a Remain vote in Northern Ireland and impose new economic borders is morally repugnant.

Reality doesn't demand anything. This is politics, not physics.

Reality in the sense that if you actually tried to do it in the real world, it would not end well.

I'd be agreeable to a second referendum in Northern Island. They can decide if they want to leave with the UK or stay in the EU via a merger with the RoI. It may not be politically achievable, but it would be amusing.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

tlg86 said:

another_richard said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Off Topic

This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.

Does that include on line

No, that is retail sales in store.

Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.

Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
Turnover 2017 £2.4bn

I'd never heard of B&M until this morning. They've been fined for selling knives to teenagers.

Took over from Homebase in Llandudno. Good value

Homebase, now that is a case study in how not to run a business.

TOPPING said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

trawl said:

Rochdale “Parliament won't vote for exit to EEA. Won't vote for no deal (I expect a vote compelling the government not to accept a no deal scenario). Yet they are your choices...”

I need to have a nose at the legislation. How do you see that working? Parliament voted to trigger A50 which sets a timescale and includes no deal. If there is no deal and the two years expires what is the effect of a Parliamentary vote not to accept it?

Yeah! Hence the massive constitutional crisis we are in!

What happens when MPs reject all options available? Reject extending the timetable? Reject a new referendum? But vote that they have confidence in Her Majesty's Government? What happens when despite all that the Prime Minister refuses to resign?

MPs won't vote for exit to EEA. Have a legally binding meaningful vote which will reject no deal and compel one of the options they have already rejected. Won't vote for a referendum to hand this critis back to the voters. And despite it all probably won't vote no confidence in the government. Nor will May face a viable challenge from her MPs.

A Prime Minister and a government literally stuck in office unable to do anything at all other than make petulant speeches about how crap a negotiator she is. Yet whilst stuck in office unable to do anything may work at another time, at this time we cannot have that...

You can’t negotiate when the other side refuses to.

Unless the EU is prepared to be collaborative we need to walk away

It’s stupid and idiotic of them. But unfortunately they have been misled into believing that Brexit can be reversed

Charles we have resigned our membership of our Club and are now asking to come back for lunch in jeans and a t-shirt.

I’m not defending Chequers. But insistent on the backstop is what prevents a FTA.

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1043404086455009280

Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal

I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.

Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today

How so? Where does he attack the EU?

“We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

“That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.

Stereotomy said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1043404086455009280

Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal

I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.

Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today and he also burned his bridges with the ERG by backing Chequers.

No, sorry if May goes Davis is the only real viable alternative, he opposed Chequers from the beginning so he can scrap it pretty quickly and return to the UK stays in the single market and customs union in a transition period and try for a Canada style FTA in the transition as he was working on with Barnier before Chequers.

Davis is the only candidate who can bridge the ERG and EU divide and have a policy that can keep the DUP on side for now too

You've moved on from Boris, then?

I would still prefer Boris to lead the Tories at the next general election but to complete the negotiations with the EU if May goes Davis is the only realistic option

Ishmael_Z said:

ReggieCide said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Who else thinks that "Don't mistake politeness for weakness" sounds a lot too much like "Beware the anger of a quiet man"?

anger = weakness?

polite and quiet = weak.

polite and quiet = IDS......

Mr. Herdson, hope your son makes a swift and full recovery.

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/LordRickettsP/status/1043404086455009280

Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal

I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.

Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today

How so? Where does he attack the EU?

“We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

“That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.

I thought the EU had told May and her diplomats what the problem was. They believe her ideas will undermine the SM iirc. Nor are they keen on the customs collection frig.