Hmm. Just out of interest, what were the Leave/Remain poll figures just after Cameron announced the date? The numbers have been remarkably steady for a long time. I'm just wondering when the apparent ossification of opinion occurred.
Hmm. Just out of interest, what were the Leave/Remain poll figures just after Cameron announced the date? The numbers have been remarkably steady for a long time. I'm just wondering when the apparent ossification of opinion occurred.
This was the first one after the date was announced:
Leave: 51% Remain: 49%
A much higher number of "don't knows" though at 20%.
Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?
I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.
I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
I think tribalism rears its head here - it is the 'Conservative and Unionist' party after all. If you're a card carrying member, you have to support the Union, even if (as I believe) it's well past t'old sell-by date.
I can't say I've ever seen the description 'Conservative and Unionist Party' on any ballot paper.
Neither, as an example, did the voters of Maidenhead in 2017:
Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?
I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.
I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
I think tribalism rears its head here - it is the 'Conservative and Unionist' party after all. If you're a card carrying member, you have to support the Union, even if (as I believe) it's well past t'old sell-by date.
I can't say I've ever seen the description 'Conservative and Unionist Party' on any ballot paper.
Neither, as an example, did the voters of Maidenhead in 2017:
Hmm. Just out of interest, what were the Leave/Remain poll figures just after Cameron announced the date? The numbers have been remarkably steady for a long time. I'm just wondering when the apparent ossification of opinion occurred.
This was the first one after the date was announced:
Leave: 51% Remain: 49%
A much higher number of "don't knows" though at 20%.
Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?
I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.
I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
I know GDP is't all that as a statistic, but afaics in 2015 GDP per capita in NI was $28,400, Ireland $67,229. It would take some dunt to make a huge drop in living standards north of the Foyle.
Consumption per head is I'd say a rather better guide to living standards.
Still if you go by GDP per capita then the RoI is half as rich again as Germany.
Does anyone actually believe that ?
I doubt they've ever been to the RoI if they do.
Ireland is an extreme example of what happens in a rental economy where most of the profits earned belong to people or businesses outside the country. If we don’t stop running a trade deficit we experience the same.
Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?
I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.
I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
I know GDP is't all that as a statistic, but afaics in 2015 GDP per capita in NI was $28,400, Ireland $67,229. It would take some dunt to make a huge drop in living standards north of the Foyle.
Consumption per head is I'd say a rather better guide to living standards.
Still if you go by GDP per capita then the RoI is half as rich again as Germany.
Does anyone actually believe that ?
I doubt they've ever been to the RoI if they do.
Ireland is an extreme example of what happens in a rental economy where most of the profits earned belong to people or businesses outside the country. If we don’t stop running a trade deficit we experience the same.
Yes, Ireland’s GDP per capita is utterly meaningless as a comparitor of living standards. It’s up 9% year on year, and over 30% since 2012. Huge distortions caused by companies like Apple, Google and Facebook booking the vast majority of their entire European software and advertising sales in Ireland. https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp
On R4 Any Questions Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, Tory MP George Freeman and Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph columnist Simon Heffer all agree Chequers is dead.
They only disagree on the destination, Thornberry wants to stay in the Customs Union, Freeman wants to join EFTA and Heffer wants a FTA with the EU
A few ifs here. But.
If there’s a Labour conference vote on second referendum, with unions and momentum delegates backing second referendum, it will be carried. Anything less than 60 40 would be a surprise.
If Labours policy firms up in a call for a second ref, if say there’s no agreement by end of October, then that’s bad news for May and the brexiteers. Bad for Brexiteers Because such a vote can easily be held before end of March, could result in comfortable remain win, and both EU and UK won’t need anytime to pause exit. Bad for May because her head would be decomposing on a pike, Javid or Hunt PM.
So there’s at least one moment in this Labour conference important to British politics.
Unless there is No Deal I would not be certain at all Remain would win even if there was a second referendum. Most voters still would prefer a Norway or Canada option in a forced choice against Remain. Plus Davis is now the likely heir apparent, not Hunt and not Javid
Comments
Leave: 51%
Remain: 49%
A much higher number of "don't knows" though at 20%.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p3tomelhgo/TimesResults_160223_EUReferendum_Tuesday_Release.pdf
Neither, as an example, did the voters of Maidenhead in 2017:
https://www3.rbwm.gov.uk/info/200394/election_results/1271/general_election_results_2017
Anyway wasn't the Unionist bit about Irish Home Rule rather than anything re Ulster, Scotland or anywhere else ?
That's quite remarkable.
It’s up 9% year on year, and over 30% since 2012. Huge distortions caused by companies like Apple, Google and Facebook booking the vast majority of their entire European software and advertising sales in Ireland.
https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp
*Progress, I suppose