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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    murali_s said:

    Charles said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:
    Not really, that'll go down well with Tory members when it comes to the leadership contest.
    So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.
    I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043402141728165888

    Waiting in the wings.

    I'm going to be watching Jeremy Hunt and his odds very carefully over the next few weeks.
    What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?
    It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).
    When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?
    No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.
    I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
    needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.
    The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.
    Not entirely. It worked fine before Maastricht invented the concept of the “EU Citizen”
    I am proud to be an EU citizen Charlie!
    It’s not a question of pride (hence the capitalisation). It’s to do with access to benefits on the same basis as a national.
  • May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Yes, but not when she needs to be. May made a huge mistake over the NI backstop in December. She was desperate to get a deal and completely missed what was going on.

    Really, Chequers is about her stubborn unwillingness to accept she made a mistake.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today
    How so? Where does he attack the EU?

    “We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

    “That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

    Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.
    I thought the EU had told May and her diplomats what the problem was. They believe her ideas will undermine the SM iirc. Nor are they keen on the customs collection frig.
    I think the customs collection bit is a significant stretch and may be undoable. The 'no dividing goods from services" is horsefeathers - they do with Switzerland - and in every trade deal they sign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today
    How so? Where does he attack the EU?

    “We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

    “That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

    Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.
    The key Hunt quote was accusing the EU of 'making a parody of democracy' which you notably omitted there.

    The ERG will not want pro Chequers Hunt either
  • May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Yes, but not when she needs to be. May made a huge mistake over the NI backstop in December. She was desperate to get a deal and completely missed what was going on.

    Really, Chequers is about her stubborn unwillingness to accept she made a mistake.
    In response to her eternal stubbornness, I have stubbornly started stockpiling food in our spare room.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Yes, but not when she needs to be. May made a huge mistake over the NI backstop in December. She was desperate to get a deal and completely missed what was going on.

    Really, Chequers is about her stubborn unwillingness to accept she made a mistake.
    Wasn't the backstop in December supported by Boris & co?
  • May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Yes, but not when she needs to be. May made a huge mistake over the NI backstop in December. She was desperate to get a deal and completely missed what was going on.

    Really, Chequers is about her stubborn unwillingness to accept she made a mistake.
    Wasn't the backstop in December supported by Boris & co?
    It's clear they didn't understand it, and more worryingly, they still don't.
  • Off Topic

    This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

    Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

    There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

    Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

    But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.
    Does that include on line
    No, that is retail sales in store.

    Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

    Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.
    Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

    Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
    Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

    Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
    Turnover 2017 £2.4bn
    JD Sports overtook Marks & Spencer’s market capitalisation recently. Make of that what you will.
    Thanks.

    That surprises me. I've not been in one of their shops for a few years but will have a look now.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
  • Apologies for the lack of an article this morning. My son's not been well these last two days (temperature 40C at times), and we've spent the last two evenings in A&E. Fingers crossed, he's over the worst of it.

    I'll see if I've time to do something later this weekend.

    Sorry to hear that, hope things improve.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    The idea that support for a second referendum will be a motivating factor for Remain voters in 2022 seems bizarre
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    The idea that support for a second referendum will be a motivating factor for Remain voters in 2022 seems bizarre

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    The idea that support for a second referendum will be a motivating factor for Remain voters in 2022 seems bizarre
    Indeed - nor would it be likely to be so in 2019. The next election will be no more dominated by Brexit than was the case in 2017. A six week campaign would give Labour plenty of scope to change the focus to Austerity and the state of Public Services etc.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    Got to agree, Brexit will be done and dusted by 2022, the only people still talking about it will be fanatical remaindermen who make up what? 10% of the population and most of them will probably vote Lib/Dem anyway.

    The next GE will be about normal issues and any candidate trying to bring up Brexit will get one big yawn.
  • justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    Labour's manifesto will be far more radical, Newstatesman claims this week. Packed full of economic ideas that John McD has been working on. Apparently, the book, "Inventing the Future" has been major influence. Universal income trials, working week down to 4 days, mass automation freeing up leisure time etc etc.

    The Tories will need to be careful they are not seen as the the party out of touch with changing world.

  • tlg86 said:

    Off Topic

    This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

    Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

    There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

    Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

    But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.
    Does that include on line
    No, that is retail sales in store.

    Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

    Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.
    Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

    Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
    Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

    Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
    Turnover 2017 £2.4bn
    I'd never heard of B&M until this morning. They've been fined for selling knives to teenagers.
    The Range is another one that has grown rapidly over the past few years.
    TK Maxx and Matalan as well.

    A common feature is that such stores are usually on shopping outlets with plentiful and free parking along main roads and open until 8pm.

    Rather than on High Streets with their restricted parking and opening times.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today
    How so? Where does he attack the EU?

    “We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

    “That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

    Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.
    The key Hunt quote was accusing the EU of 'making a parody of democracy' which you notably omitted there.
    I couldn’t omit something that wasn’t in the article!

    Could you provide a link to it please?
  • tlg86 said:

    Off Topic

    This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

    Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

    There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

    Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

    But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.
    Does that include on line
    No, that is retail sales in store.

    Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

    Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.
    Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

    Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
    Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

    Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
    Turnover 2017 £2.4bn
    I'd never heard of B&M until this morning. They've been fined for selling knives to teenagers.
    The Range is another one that has grown rapidly over the past few years.
    TK Maxx and Matalan as well.

    A common feature is that such stores are usually on shopping outlets with plentiful and free parking along main roads and open until 8pm.

    Rather than on High Streets with their restricted parking and opening times.
    Fair point. Wilkos is high street and expanded rapidly.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    I don't recall Corbyn getting an easy ride at all - he simply massively outperformed the very low expectations of him at the campaign's outset. We now know that he is a natural campaigner , and it seems unlikely to me that he will fail to gain ground in the course of any election - albeit probably not on the scale of 2017.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    The Tories will need to be careful they are not seen as the the party out of touch with changing world.

    It's a bit late to be worrying about that; Brexit is the ultimate anti-modernist spasm.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    I don't recall Corbyn getting an easy ride at all - he simply massively outperformed the very low expectations of him at the campaign's outset. We now know that he is a natural campaigner , and it seems unlikely to me that he will fail to gain ground in the course of any election - albeit probably not on the scale of 2017.
    The incoming only really started in the last week of the campaign and after Tories disastrous manifesto.

    May was useless and spent the whole time talking to small groups of hand picked loyalists, the Lib Dem leader when not boring everybody about Brexit was in hiding.

    The field was left empty and he took advantage, neither the media or Tories really got stuck into Labour manifesto flaws. He was left to do his 70s revival tour pretty much unopposed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018
    On R4 Any Questions Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, Tory MP George Freeman and Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph columnist Simon Heffer all agree Chequers is dead.

    They only disagree on the destination, Thornberry wants to stay in the Customs Union, Freeman wants to join EFTA and Heffer wants a FTA with the EU
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    Labour's manifesto will be far more radical, Newstatesman claims this week. Packed full of economic ideas that John McD has been working on. Apparently, the book, "Inventing the Future" has been major influence. Universal income trials, working week down to 4 days, mass automation freeing up leisure time etc etc.

    The Tories will need to be careful they are not seen as the the party out of touch with changing world.

    The Tories need to work out what they are for. At the moment, I have no idea. They seem unwilling to speak up for capitalism, picking shitty bits of Ed Milibands ideas and no new ideas on how to deal with current problems let alone adjust that for the future everybody can see coming.

    IMO, all the parties are devoid of new ideas that are suited for the highly globalized high tech computer driven future.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Two thoughts.

    - The word "Chequers" did not cross her lips yesterday - so there may be some room for manoeuvre and

    - Not having Hunt (the Foreign secretary FFS!) on the "Brexit inner cabinet" is a serious miscalculation. Not having Boris, I quite understand, but not Hunt?
    That was my comment yesterday. When May is both seriously misjudging her position and also being frankly insulted she needs cool and clever heads around her. Hunt is as close to that as she can get in the cabinet.
  • tlg86 said:

    Off Topic

    This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

    Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

    There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

    Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

    But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.
    Does that include on line
    No, that is retail sales in store.

    Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

    Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.
    Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

    Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
    Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

    Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
    Turnover 2017 £2.4bn
    I'd never heard of B&M until this morning. They've been fined for selling knives to teenagers.
    The Range is another one that has grown rapidly over the past few years.
    TK Maxx and Matalan as well.

    A common feature is that such stores are usually on shopping outlets with plentiful and free parking along main roads and open until 8pm.

    Rather than on High Streets with their restricted parking and opening times.
    Fair point. Wilkos is high street and expanded rapidly.
    They rapidly expanded up to about 2010 but I think they've been pretty flat since then.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today
    How so? Where does he attack the EU?

    “We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

    “That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

    Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.
    The key Hunt quote was accusing the EU of 'making a parody of democracy' which you notably omitted there.
    I couldn’t omit something that wasn’t in the article!

    Could you provide a link to it please?
    https://mobile.twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twgr^373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/6788/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tmay-hasn-t-had-front-pages-like-this-since-she-made-the-fatef/p1
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    RIP Chas.
  • HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    The amazing issue for me is the blind loyalty of those wanting to remain in the EU who never say a word of criticism against the EU. It is almost as if they worship at the altar of Brussels.They would be far more credible if they would express their opinions on the negatives arising from the EU and how it could be made more accountable.

    I would be very surprised if next May's EU elections do not see a big move towards hard right and left MEP's being elected and if so they only have themselves to blame.

    It is one of the great mysteries to me as to why Juncker is still in post. Any other CEO would have been sacked for utter incompetence but his legacy is forever tarnished in that he will be Commission President when the UK leave the EU

    My main reasons to be pro EU are political, not economic. My job is well protected whatever happens, and I am not dependent on imports or exports to live and prosper.

    I believe that until recently we were a very positive influence on the EU. The Single Market and budgetary reforms to CAP were largely British led, for example. We have also been very positive about structural development of the former Eastern Block towards democracy and liberal capitalist economies.

    The EU has benefited tremendously from our involvement, and will change direction now that we can no longer participate. Of course we did not always get our way, but we changed the whole course of the EU project.

    Brexit is Suez all over again. Suez marked our end as a world power, Brexit marks our end as a European power. The first was inevitable, but the second was our choice.
    It was really granting India independence that marked our end as a global superpower, Suez was just a symptom of that.

    In or out of the EU we will still be a European power ie the most powerful European nation after Germany alongside France. You could also say Russia is really the most powerful European nation (as most of it is in Europe) and they have never been in the EU at all.

    The fact the UK does not want to be part of an attempt to create an EU superpower does not change that
    India independence kicked the process off, but it was WWII that did for it because it took all our cash and gold reserves and a serious debtor.
    Corelli Barnett summed it up beautifully - describing the end of British superpower status as ship that went down in the night in a raging gale in the North Atlantic. At the start of the war GB Shaw prophesied that there would only be two winners - the USA and the USSR.

    For a small island in the North Atlantic we had an astonishing run - and in “Soft Power” terms are still a global super power.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:



    picked loyalists, the Lib Dem leader when not boring everybody about Brexit was in hiding.

    The field was left empty and he took advantage, neither the media or Tories really got stuck into Labour manifesto flaws. He was left to do his 70s revival tour pretty much unopposed.

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    I don't recall Corbyn getting an easy ride at all - he simply massively outperformed the very low expectations of him at the campaign's outset. We now know that he is a natural campaigner , and it seems unlikely to me that he will fail to gain ground in the course of any election - albeit probably not on the scale of 2017.
    The incoming only really started in the last week of the campaign and after Tories disastrous manifesto.

    May was useless and spent the whole time talking to small groups of hand picked loyalists, the Lib Dem leader when not boring everybody about Brexit was in hiding.

    The field was left empty and he took advantage, neither the media or Tories really got stuck into Labour manifesto flaws. He was left to do his 70s revival tour pretty much unopposed.
    But there were also events in the campaign which should have helped the Tories - in particular the appalling terrorist incidents. Despite Corbyn's somewhat shaky background on such an issue , that did not seem to happen.
  • justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    I don't recall Corbyn getting an easy ride at all - he simply massively outperformed the very low expectations of him at the campaign's outset. We now know that he is a natural campaigner , and it seems unlikely to me that he will fail to gain ground in the course of any election - albeit probably not on the scale of 2017.
    The incoming only really started in the last week of the campaign and after Tories disastrous manifesto.

    May was useless and spent the whole time talking to small groups of hand picked loyalists, the Lib Dem leader when not boring everybody about Brexit was in hiding.

    The field was left empty and he took advantage, neither the media or Tories really got stuck into Labour manifesto flaws. He was left to do his 70s revival tour pretty much unopposed.
    LibDems were woeful. Only thing I remember is Farron getting shirty and snappy with the interviewer in the key leadership interview (Andrew Neil iirc).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,206
    edited September 2018

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Corbyn is still leader and the Tories get through Brexit in one piece, then I think the Tories will win GE2022.

    If neither or those two things apply, then everything is up for grabs.
    If Corbyn is still leader and sticks with his Brexit policy then I think the Tories will win GE22.

    In the last month, Labour has lost about 1% to the LibDems. The consequence is that the LibDems gain one seat but the Tories gain nine compared with a month ago, and are just 20 short of an overall majority.

    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very / Dementia Tax.
    Labour's manifesto will be far more radical, Newstatesman claims this week. Packed full of economic ideas that John McD has been working on. Apparently, the book, "Inventing the Future" has been major influence. Universal income trials, working week down to 4 days, mass automation freeing up leisure time etc etc.

    The Tories will need to be careful they are not seen as the the party out of touch with changing world.

    The Tories need to work out what they are for. At the moment, I have no idea. They seem unwilling to speak up for capitalism, picking shitty bits of Ed Milibands ideas and no new ideas on how to deal with current problems let alone adjust that for the future everybody can see coming.

    IMO, all the parties are devoid of new ideas that are suited for the highly globalized high tech computer driven future.
    The only thing the Tories have been consistently for is the Monarchy and the Union (albeit Brexit may now be a bit stronger than the latter for some of them) and opposing socialism.

    Beyond that Tory leaders have supported tariffs and free trade, privatised industries and kept nationalised industries, raised taxes and lowered taxes, raised spending and cut spending, started wars or kept out of wars, backed joining the EEC and staying in the EU and leaving the EU, been socially conservative and socially liberal depending on the mood of the time
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Hunt will have infuriated the EU with his comments today
    How so? Where does he attack the EU?

    “We need to avoid revving up the situation, making it worse by appealing to audiences on social media.” Instead, he said, all parties should be “seriously and diligently working to a solution”.

    “That’s what Theresa May wants to do and she has taken some big risks. She’s shown real flexibility with these Chequers proposals, she lost two important cabinet ministers as a result of that, and we need the EU to show flexibility in return. If there are elements of our proposal they find difficult, then tell us what they are and we will sit down and work through them.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/22/dont-mistake-british-politeness-for-weakness-jeremy-hunt-tells-eu

    Tusk made a fairly innocuous Instagram post which under different circumstances would have passed off as slightly juvenile but nothing to get upset about. As it was, under the circumstances that emerged it looked condescending and insulting - neither of which I'm sure he intended.
    The key Hunt quote was accusing the EU of 'making a parody of democracy' which you notably omitted there.
    I couldn’t omit something that wasn’t in the article!

    Could you provide a link to it please?
    https://mobile.twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1043398158229938181?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twgr^373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/6788/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tmay-hasn-t-had-front-pages-like-this-since-she-made-the-fatef/p1
    Thanks - but I’ll have to see if I can find what Hunt actually said rather than Toenails edited précis.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    RIP Chas.

    Gercha!

    Poor old Mr Woogie.
  • "Jeremy’s spent his whole political life campaigning to get us out of the EU and now there’s growing pressure on Labour to support a second referendum."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/21/jeremy-corbyns-journey-dejected-outsider-idol-left-threatening/
    Except McIRA has ruled that out again this morning, its as if Jezza doesn't think the EU is a good thing...
    Yes I agree with you the current line being said. We have a measure today “no to second referendum”. Now however we can watch and measure movement in the coming days. If they move to open minded “if that’s what the movement democratically asks for as our policy” by Monday lunchtime it will say to us they expect to lose the vote.
  • HYUFD said:

    Confirmation if Chequers goes down so does Hunt's leadership chances, Davis is the most likely option to push for a Canada style deal
    I don't that that's true. Hunt has demonstrated a lot of competence as FS and a willingness to flex his style.

    I think he'd go for the maximum CETA he could and a NI fudge with a border in the Irish Sea and a NI/Eire border, and special status for NI.
    Yes - not sure May has the necessary flexibility to bring this off.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    John_M said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:
    So what you’re saying is our chief diplomat is prioritising party over country. Surely it’s the job of the FO to lower tension and discover a way forward, not play to his leadership dream. The sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.
    I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.
    What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?
    It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).
    When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?
    No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.
    I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
    needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.
    The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.
    And all of those are magnets for migrants - like the UK
    Apart from a non-contributory welfare system there are other factors which make the UK attractive to migrants:

    The English language
    A consumption based economy
    Governments which wanted house prices to rise
    Anecdote alert:

    On Thursday night, I was watching a Twitch streamer (by birth Portugese, now resident in the UK). They quite spontaneously said that they moved to the UK because we are extremely polite, friendly and helpful. Sometimes its the intangibles that matter. In my view, it's a mistake to see things entirely through a transactional lens.
    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.
  • DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    felix said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Jonathan said:

    tlg86 said:
    e sort of nonsense you expect from Boris.
    I'm not a Boris Johnson fan, but I agree Matthew Syed that Boris gets too much grief for being openly ambitious. The likes of Hunt covet the top job just as much but are probably not quite so blatant when it comes to posturing and positioning.
    What's Canada+++ ? Is it cake?
    It’s what the EU has offered - the fly in the ointment, to mix metaphors is the customs border in the Irish Sea (EU version) or whole U.K. in SM for goods (UK version).
    When you add enough pluses to Canada you end up in Norway?
    No - because Norway has one significant minus - Freedom of Movement.
    I suspect the EU would accept some concessions on FoM in a Norway type deal. The assumption
    needs testing of course but it's more realistic than most of the suggestions.
    The irony on FOM is that it is entirely the fault of Britain's non-contributory benefit system that has created the problem. Hardly any other EU country operates in the same way.
    And all of those are magnets for migrants - like the UK
    Apart from a non-contributory welfare system there are other factors which make the UK attractive to migrants:

    The English language
    A consumption based economy
    Governments which wanted house prices to rise
    Anecdote alert:

    On Thursday night, I was watching a Twitch streamer (by birth Portugese, now resident in the UK). They quite spontaneously said that they moved to the UK because we are extremely polite, friendly and helpful. Sometimes its the intangibles that matter. In my view, it's a mistake to see things entirely through a transactional lens.
    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.
    Top of my “things I didn’t need to know” was “changing trains at Baker Street”.

    But then since I publicly googled MILF in front of giggling teenage nephew and niece I should probably pay attention.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Barnesian said:


    Corbyn and McDonnell, with their Brexit policy, are boosting the LibDems, dividing the Remainer vote, and giving victory to the Tories.
    I suspect that any losses to the LibDems are pretty short term and would be quite easily reversed when Corbyn gets into campaign mode in a general election context.
    That is a big presumption that Corbyn will do equally well during a GE campaign. Last time he had a very easy ride, up against MayBot (who stupidly boxed herself in on debates) and a Lib Dem leader who spent the whole campaign trying to dodge questions about the gays sinning, plus the media kept running with Tories going to get a massive majority / Dementia Tax.
    I don't recall Corbyn getting an easy ride at all - he simply massively outperformed the very low expectations of him at the campaign's outset. We now know that he is a natural campaigner , and it seems unlikely to me that he will fail to gain ground in the course of any election - albeit probably not on the scale of 2017.
    The incoming only really started in the last week of the campaign and after Tories disastrous manifesto.

    May was useless and spent the whole time talking to small groups of hand picked loyalists, the Lib Dem leader when not boring everybody about Brexit was in hiding.

    The field was left empty and he took advantage, neither the media or Tories really got stuck into Labour manifesto flaws. He was left to do his 70s revival tour pretty much unopposed.
    Start by looking at the videos of Corbyn campaigning before the 2017 GE, and compare them to TMays. The difference being, as it was during the 2 LP leadership campaigns, is that Corbyn struck a chord - and drew 10K to 100's k crowds to listen to him against the Tories promo's with her standing with an odd cow in a byre, or 20 to 30 Tory supporters donutting her, or a crowd of factory workers looking bored listening to her lecturing them. Sorry, but the traditional Dead Tree and Broadcasting media has lost credibility with too many, and it's going to hurt the Tory vote more than Labours.
  • DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
  • May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Yes, but not when she needs to be. May made a huge mistake over the NI backstop in December. She was desperate to get a deal and completely missed what was going on.

    Really, Chequers is about her stubborn unwillingness to accept she made a mistake.
    Wasn't the backstop in December supported by Boris & co?
    It's clear they didn't understand it, and more worryingly, they still don't.
    This has been covered already. May briefed everyone that the backstop text was just a formula to get to Stage 2 and that the problem would be solved there. Leavers accepted it on that basis, although many of us said it was a mistake at the time. The moment Barnier tried to take a vague text and turn it into a legally binding backstop, the whole thing came to a halt and has never recovered.

    Reading what was agreed in December is not instructive because it could be interpreted as anything. it certainly does not state that any part of the UK or NI needs to stay in the CU or SM nor does it rule out a whole UK backstop (and in some parts makes it clear that this would be the likely outcome).

    DD was on the record as telling May not to agree it. Stop blaming Leavers for a Remainers mistake.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    John_M said:

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
    That was a very interesting move by Amazon, although they are scaling back some of the perks in the very near future.

    It is the tech that runs the site that gets me. 100s of streamers, most broadcasting in 720p+, some channels with 100k+ viewers, plus all the VODs etc etc etc. It is nuts they keep that all running smoothly.

    The likes of iPlayer and ItvPlayer are a bag of shit compared to it.
  • HYUFD said:

    On R4 Any Questions Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, Tory MP George Freeman and Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph columnist Simon Heffer all agree Chequers is dead.

    They only disagree on the destination, Thornberry wants to stay in the Customs Union, Freeman wants to join EFTA and Heffer wants a FTA with the EU

    A few ifs here. But.

    If there’s a Labour conference vote on second referendum, with unions and momentum delegates backing second referendum, it will be carried. Anything less than 60 40 would be a surprise.

    If Labours policy firms up in a call for a second ref, if say there’s no agreement by end of October, then that’s bad news for May and the brexiteers. Bad for Brexiteers Because such a vote can easily be held before end of March, could result in comfortable remain win, and both EU and UK won’t need anytime to pause exit. Bad for May because her head would be decomposing on a pike, Javid or Hunt PM.

    So there’s at least one moment in this Labour conference important to British politics. :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Off Topic

    This morning our electric kettle died and so we checked our local Debenhams for it's replacement and it is retailed at £60

    Before we went into Town I checked Amazon for the same kettle and it is on line at £29.99 delivered tomorrow and not through Prime.

    There is your High Street disaster in the starkest of terms

    Debenhams is very 'mediocre middle' - neither cheap enough nor good enough nor specialised enough.

    But some retail chains must be doing very well - non food stores sales have increased by 20% over the last five years.
    Does that include on line
    No, that is retail sales in store.

    Internet sales have increased much more but some physical shops must be doing very well.

    Alternatively the number of physical shops has increased - those outlet shops along main roads appear to be doing better than High Streets to my eye.
    Here are two retail chains which have been doing very well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_Bargains

    Turnover 2011 £0.7bn
    Turnover 2016 £1.6bn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B_&_M

    Turnover 2012 £0.9bn
    Turnover 2017 £2.4bn
    JD Sports overtook Marks & Spencer’s market capitalisation recently. Make of that what you will.
    Thanks.

    That surprises me. I've not been in one of their shops for a few years but will have a look now.
    great for trainers/ walking shoes etc and obviously sports gear
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
    That was a very interesting move by Amazon, although they are scaling back some of the perks in the very near future.

    It is the tech that runs the site that gets me. 100s of streamers, most broadcasting in 720p+, some channels with 100k+ viewers, plus all the VODs etc etc etc. It is nuts they keep that all running smoothly.

    The likes of iPlayer and ItvPlayer are a bag of shit compared to it.
    My son is getting concerned. Why does Dad want to understand all this?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    Someone has worked out the answer to a question I've always wanted to know, which is what are the current populations of the traditional counties of England:


    "1.Yorkshire (5,341,332)
    2. Lancashire (5,030,958)
    3. Middlesex (4,244,926)
    4. Essex (3,139,392)
    5. Surrey (3,114,947)
    6. Kent (2,886,310)
    7. Staffordshire (2,194,038)
    8. Hampshire (2,171,352)
    9. Warwickshire (1,739,412)
    10. Cheshire (1,691,045)"

    https://www.citymetric.com/horizons/which-historic-english-county-has-highest-population-3386
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412

    HYUFD said:

    On R4 Any Questions Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, Tory MP George Freeman and Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph columnist Simon Heffer all agree Chequers is dead.

    They only disagree on the destination, Thornberry wants to stay in the Customs Union, Freeman wants to join EFTA and Heffer wants a FTA with the EU

    A few ifs here. But.

    If there’s a Labour conference vote on second referendum, with unions and momentum delegates backing second referendum, it will be carried. Anything less than 60 40 would be a surprise.

    If Labours policy firms up in a call for a second ref, if say there’s no agreement by end of October, then that’s bad news for May and the brexiteers. Bad for Brexiteers Because such a vote can easily be held before end of March, could result in comfortable remain win, and both EU and UK won’t need anytime to pause exit. Bad for May because her head would be decomposing on a pike, Javid or Hunt PM.

    So there’s at least one moment in this Labour conference important to British politics. :)
    I'm at a loss as to why previously sane people seem to think that a second referendum will get them a different answer... There appears to be little actual evidence that that is the case...
  • DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
    That was a very interesting move by Amazon, although they are scaling back some of the perks in the very near future.

    It is the tech that runs the site that gets me. 100s of streamers, most broadcasting in 720p+, some channels with 100k+ viewers, plus all the VODs etc etc etc. It is nuts they keep that all running smoothly.

    The likes of iPlayer and ItvPlayer are a bag of shit compared to it.
    My son is getting concerned. Why does Dad want to understand all this?
    LOL...my understanding is that although the likes of Ninja are massively popular with the Yute, there is also a significant proportion of viewers across the site that are certainly older demographic. The range of streamers / games they stream is massive.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    DavidL said:

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Two thoughts.

    - The word "Chequers" did not cross her lips yesterday - so there may be some room for manoeuvre and

    - Not having Hunt (the Foreign secretary FFS!) on the "Brexit inner cabinet" is a serious miscalculation. Not having Boris, I quite understand, but not Hunt?
    That was my comment yesterday. When May is both seriously misjudging her position and also being frankly insulted she needs cool and clever heads around her. Hunt is as close to that as she can get in the cabinet.
    David, If you needed to pick a skilled team for a life saving project, would you pick any of the absolute donkeys in the current cabinet. They could not raise a brain between them.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Fianna Fáil cannot have a veto on Fine Gael policies. Other than when FG is in government but is not the majority. As now.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412
    edited September 2018
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Two thoughts.

    - The word "Chequers" did not cross her lips yesterday - so there may be some room for manoeuvre and

    - Not having Hunt (the Foreign secretary FFS!) on the "Brexit inner cabinet" is a serious miscalculation. Not having Boris, I quite understand, but not Hunt?
    That was my comment yesterday. When May is both seriously misjudging her position and also being frankly insulted she needs cool and clever heads around her. Hunt is as close to that as she can get in the cabinet.
    David, If you needed to pick a skilled team for a life saving project, would you pick any of the absolute donkeys in the current cabinet. They could not raise a brain between them.
    Would you actually pick anyone who was a politician though (and I extend that to the rest of the world as well)..

    Politics is no longer the go to place for bright people - there are easier and far less stressful ways to earn a living...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    eek said:

    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058

    Ted Cruz thinks a video like that helps him? Wow.

    I am starting to believe O’Rourke can do this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    Interesting article about Sheffield:

    “Uniquely, Sheffield's dividing line runs directly through the city like the Berlin Wall”
    https://www.citymetric.com/business/sheffields-dividing-line-runs-berlin-wall-inequality-two-cities4213
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Two thoughts.

    - The word "Chequers" did not cross her lips yesterday - so there may be some room for manoeuvre and

    - Not having Hunt (the Foreign secretary FFS!) on the "Brexit inner cabinet" is a serious miscalculation. Not having Boris, I quite understand, but not Hunt?
    That was my comment yesterday. When May is both seriously misjudging her position and also being frankly insulted she needs cool and clever heads around her. Hunt is as close to that as she can get in the cabinet.
    David, If you needed to pick a skilled team for a life saving project, would you pick any of the absolute donkeys in the current cabinet. They could not raise a brain between them.
    Would you actually pick anyone who was a politician though (and I extend that to the rest of the world as well)..

    Politics is no longer the go to place for bright people - there are easier and far less stressful ways to earn a living...
    Not sure about the easier, half the year on holiday and most of the other half in subsidised bars and restaurants. All your living paid for , wages in bank, gold plated pension.
    When you see the chamber it has about 10 or 12 in to do debates, assume they take turns every month or two.
  • matt said:

    Fianna Fáil cannot have a veto on Fine Gael policies. Other than when FG is in government but is not the majority. As now.
    Indeed. Hunt should reply to say that explicitly that the DUP does have a veto on the backstop and that until the EU and Ireland come up with an offer that satisfies the DUP there is no backstop.
  • Urggh! That mock-up on The Sun makes Theresa look positively grotesque. All this has the feel of one last blast of silly bravado before the Tories decide to pull the plug. Surely it's only a matter of time before the Men in Grey Kitten Heels pay a visit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    edited September 2018

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
    That was a very interesting move by Amazon, although they are scaling back some of the perks in the very near future.

    It is the tech that runs the site that gets me. 100s of streamers, most broadcasting in 720p+, some channels with 100k+ viewers, plus all the VODs etc etc etc. It is nuts they keep that all running smoothly.

    The likes of iPlayer and ItvPlayer are a bag of shit compared to it.
    My son is getting concerned. Why does Dad want to understand all this?
    LOL...my understanding is that although the likes of Ninja are massively popular with the Yute, there is also a significant proportion of viewers across the site that are certainly older demographic. The range of streamers / games they stream is massive.
    One of favourite scenes in one of my favourite movies, my cousin Vinny, the judge asks, “what is a yute?”

    Fred Gwynne was absolutely brilliant in that film.
  • matt said:

    Fianna Fáil cannot have a veto on Fine Gael policies. Other than when FG is in government but is not the majority. As now.
    The backstop isn't Conservative policy but a negotiating demand from the other side. They don't care where the votes in Westminster come from.
  • DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058

    Ted Cruz thinks a video like that helps him? Wow.

    I am starting to believe O’Rourke can do this.
    Cruz deserves to lose.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    May intends to plough on. She really is a very stubborn person isn't she.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7319291/theresa-may-brexit-james-forsyth/

    Two thoughts.

    - The word "Chequers" did not cross her lips yesterday - so there may be some room for manoeuvre and

    - Not having Hunt (the Foreign secretary FFS!) on the "Brexit inner cabinet" is a serious miscalculation. Not having Boris, I quite understand, but not Hunt?
    That was my comment yesterday. When May is both seriously misjudging her position and also being frankly insulted she needs cool and clever heads around her. Hunt is as close to that as she can get in the cabinet.
    David, If you needed to pick a skilled team for a life saving project, would you pick any of the absolute donkeys in the current cabinet. They could not raise a brain between them.
    No, but sometimes you have to do the best with what you have. Sending one of your more capable to Myanmar when you are dealing with this is daft.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058

    Ted Cruz thinks a video like that helps him? Wow.

    I am starting to believe O’Rourke can do this.
    Cruz deserves to lose.
    Beyond doubt. But this is Texas.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    edited September 2018
    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    John_M said:

    DavidL said:



    My son has just explained what a twitch streamer is. This site remains educational.

    Twitch really is quite an incredible site, both its popularity, the fact people "sub" when they don't have to and the technology behind it that keeps it running.
    I use my Prime membership to sub to my favourite streamers. It's free (in a fashion) and helps the streamer.
    That was a very interesting move by Amazon, although they are scaling back some of the perks in the very near future.

    It is the tech that runs the site that gets me. 100s of streamers, most broadcasting in 720p+, some channels with 100k+ viewers, plus all the VODs etc etc etc. It is nuts they keep that all running smoothly.

    The likes of iPlayer and ItvPlayer are a bag of shit compared to it.
    My son is getting concerned. Why does Dad want to understand all this?
    LOL...my understanding is that although the likes of Ninja are massively popular with the Yute, there is also a significant proportion of viewers across the site that are certainly older demographic. The range of streamers / games they stream is massive.
    One of favourite scenes in one of my favourite movies, my cousin Vinny, the judge asks, “what is a yute?”

    Fred Gwynne was absolutely brilliant in that film.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=K6qGwmXZtsE
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,857
    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018

    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.

    The fact Dawn Butler is a shadow minister in the first place says it all...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,752
    edited September 2018
    DavidL said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
    Tim Stanley - "Why are we debating the future of the Northern Ireland border? Under normal circumstances, Westminster would have accepted the EU’s proposal to set a customs border down the Irish Sea, with checks in Liverpool rather than County Armagh."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/24/time-fellow-brexiteers-took-second-look-norway-option/?icid=registration_eng_nba158433_personalised
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892

    DavidL said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
    Tim Stanley - "Why are we debating the future of the Northern Ireland border? Under normal circumstances, Westminster would have accepted the EU’s proposal to set a customs border down the Irish Sea, with checks in Liverpool rather than County Armagh."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/24/time-fellow-brexiteers-took-second-look-norway-option/?icid=registration_eng_nba158433_personalised
    That was in July. This really isn’t about NI anymore.
  • DavidL said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
    Haven't polls showed that a majority of Leave voters think cutting NI loose would be a price worth paying to leave the EU? Though I accept that they may not possess the white hot, ideological purity required to be called 'Brexiteer'.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058

    Ted Cruz thinks a video like that helps him? Wow.

    I am starting to believe O’Rourke can do this.
    Caring about black people not much of a vote winner in the South traditionally...
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
    Tim Stanley - "Why are we debating the future of the Northern Ireland border? Under normal circumstances, Westminster would have accepted the EU’s proposal to set a customs border down the Irish Sea, with checks in Liverpool rather than County Armagh."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/24/time-fellow-brexiteers-took-second-look-norway-option/?icid=registration_eng_nba158433_personalised
    That was in July. This really isn’t about NI anymore.
    While you're getting your son to explain things people his age understand, ask about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    Not a single Brexiteer would give the EU the satisfaction.
    Tim Stanley - "Why are we debating the future of the Northern Ireland border? Under normal circumstances, Westminster would have accepted the EU’s proposal to set a customs border down the Irish Sea, with checks in Liverpool rather than County Armagh."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/24/time-fellow-brexiteers-took-second-look-norway-option/?icid=registration_eng_nba158433_personalised
    That was in July. This really isn’t about NI anymore.
    While you're getting your son to explain things people his age understand, ask about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
    NI is not a nose I am willing to separate from, even if many are. The EU doesn't need to demand the nose be taken either.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.

    I know I am not a target audience for that message, but I am not opposed in principle to other 'radical' ideas like nationalisation so I feel like I won't dismiss all ideas out of hand, but do people really still think it is great to suggest councils break the law?! Or those that did so are to be praised?


  • Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    Since in that scenario I imagine Scotland is most likely to receive Arlene and her myrmidons in their self imposed exile, perhaps not so elegant for everyone.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    I think tribalism rears its head here - it is the 'Conservative and Unionist' party after all. If you're a card carrying member, you have to support the Union, even if (as I believe) it's well past t'old sell-by date.
  • kle4 said:

    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.

    I know I am not a target audience for that message, but I am not opposed in principle to other 'radical' ideas like nationalisation so I feel like I won't dismiss all ideas out of hand, but do people really still think it is great to suggest councils break the law?! Or those that did so are to be praised?


    Someone seeking to be a Minister of the Crown should not be advocating breaking the law.

    Anyone with any honour would not make such a call. Mind you, anyone with any honour would not be serving in that Shadow Cabinet.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    kle4 said:

    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.

    I know I am not a target audience for that message, but I am not opposed in principle to other 'radical' ideas like nationalisation so I feel like I won't dismiss all ideas out of hand, but do people really still think it is great to suggest councils break the law?! Or those that did so are to be praised?


    She should stick what she does best....slandering companies, faking letters from Obama, fiddling her expenses and campaigning in the wrong constituencies.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181
    edited September 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    Since in that scenario I imagine Scotland is most likely to receive Arlene and her myrmidons in their self imposed exile, perhaps not so elegant for everyone.
    Can't say I've seen 'mrymidon' used in a long time. What a lovely word.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
    Project Fear :).
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2018
    Why not?

    Might help concentrate his and his boss’s mind.

    Hope they are good sailors. It’s a bloody long way on a boat from Rosslare to Rotterdam on their super new ferry.
  • Mr. kle4, *cough* I used it not a few days ago.

    [One could argue Myrmidon should be capitalised, as per Argives].
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting article about Sheffield...

    OK, let me just stop you there... :)

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,158
    edited September 2018
    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"

    10,000 sample...is that the same survey the People's Vote was using to make a dubious claim that Labour should back a second vote to win a majority?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,141
    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    If an United Ireland is the solution, we're looking at the wrong problem. One thing I do stand four-square with May on is her Unionism.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Anyone following American Politics may like this second video of the Day.

    Here we have Ted Cruz showing you why his opponent, Beto O'Rourke, is the better option

    https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1043278255740973058

    Ted Cruz thinks a video like that helps him? Wow.

    I am starting to believe O’Rourke can do this.
    Cruz deserves to lose.
    Beyond doubt. But this is Texas.
    Democrats do have a history of winning in Texas - albeit not in the last twenty years.
  • AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"

    I'm expecting the next poll to show around 85%/15% in favour of Leave, as a proud yet disgruntled populace turns against those EU rascals, for what they did to our darling Theresa.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"

    10,000 sample...is that the same survey the People's Vote was using to make a dubious claim that Labour should back a second vote to win a majority?
    If the polls were 60/40 to Remain the campaign for a second referendum would probably be able to get somewhere IMO, but not 52/48. Statement of the obvious maybe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,181

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"

    I'm expecting the next poll to show around 85%/15% in favour of Leave, as a proud yet disgruntled populace turns against those EU rascals, for what they did to our darling Theresa.
    Still 15% remain? What a bunch of traitors!
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    8m8 minutes ago

    UK, YouGov poll:

    EU membership ref

    Remain: 52% (-1)
    Leave: 48% (+1)

    Field work: 28/08/18 – 4/09/18
    Sample size: 10,215"

    10,000 sample...is that the same survey the People's Vote was using to make a dubious claim that Labour should back a second vote to win a majority?
    If the polls were 60/40 to Remain the campaign for a second referendum would probably be able to get somewhere IMO, but not 52/48. Statement of the obvious maybe.
    The reality is basically nothing is changing. All the movement is in the margin of error.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
    I know GDP is't all that as a statistic, but afaics in 2015 GDP per capita in NI was $28,400, Ireland $67,229. It would take some dunt to make a huge drop in living standards north of the Foyle.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    kle4 said:

    I see Dawn Butler has come out as a supporter of Militant in her speech today

    https://twitter.com/tonymc39/status/1043489430609321984

    This is what Labour has become.

    I know I am not a target audience for that message, but I am not opposed in principle to other 'radical' ideas like nationalisation so I feel like I won't dismiss all ideas out of hand, but do people really still think it is great to suggest councils break the law?! Or those that did so are to be praised?


    This is one reason Corbynism worries me so much. Economically I am on the left. My big gripe with current Labour policy is not higher spending and taxes, but that the flagship pledges the money will be spent on are, generally speaking, politcally vanity rather than products of hard thinking about what you would do to change a system that is currently not working for most people. But things like this are the difference. Labour is currently run by a group of people who either don't understand why rules and practicalities are important - or they don't care because they subscribe to a 'tear it all down' revolutionary creed.

    Those who think the latter are now gaining in confidence due to their hegenomy within the party and the left-leaning media landscape (broadcasters and newspapers have been chastened by Corbyn's staying power and unlikely score draw in the election and so are now keen to be onside). Hence her feeling free to say this, Williamson's deselection tour, etc. But I do wonder if it will be pride before a fall. So far Corbyn and co have been incredibly lucky in their opponents, they won't be forever - and the mask slipping makes it more likely the centre-left decide: "Sod this".
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    viewcode said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    If an United Ireland is the solution, we're looking at the wrong problem. One thing I do stand four-square with May on is her Unionism.
    In the case of both Scotland and NI I have never understood why the independence question gets elevated to the status of a philosophy or creed with a capital letter and an -ism. It's a purely contingent question of what works best for most, surely, with due regard being had to the principle of self determination.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    John_M said:

    Who is going to be the first Brexiter to propose abandoning Northern Ireland?

    I always found it strange - we want control of our borders but not in Ireland.

    I suggested it several weeks ago, and reiterated that this very day. Why people don't appear enthused by my idea of a referendum for Northern Ireland alone is a mystery to me.
    They broke 55 remain 45 leave in 2016 I believe. Reunifying Ireland does look rather an elegant solution.
    A huge drop in living standards in the combined Ireland is hardly "an elegant solution".
    I know GDP is't all that as a statistic, but afaics in 2015 GDP per capita in NI was $28,400, Ireland $67,229. It would take some dunt to make a huge drop in living standards north of the Foyle.
    Consumption per head is I'd say a rather better guide to living standards.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/consumptionperheadintheukisfourthhighestintheeu

    Still if you go by GDP per capita then the RoI is half as rich again as Germany.

    Does anyone actually believe that ?

    I doubt they've ever been to the RoI if they do.
This discussion has been closed.