politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility
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[Citation Needed]TheScreamingEagles said:Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/10390624495242321930 -
No it is notarcher101au said:
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.0 -
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?archer101au said:
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.0 -
Your view of the man is coloured because you didn't like the fact that he called Brexit for what it has become (a f*****g disaster). He may have over egged the immediate effects, perhaps, but there was a reasonable case that needed to be outlined to the electorate and 52% of them chose to ignore it in favour of a pack of nationalistic lies and distortions.Alanbrooke said:
Not at all Mr TTOPPING said:
He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.DavidL said:
It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.TOPPING said:
Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.currystar said:
What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???TheScreamingEagles said:Slackbladder said:
all together now....currystar said:What an incompetent government
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689
#despitebrexit
*Cough*
We haven’t left yet.
the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,
A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
The reality is that Osborne was most definitely up to the job. I never liked him as a person, but given the crappy hand he was given by the last Labour government he did a pretty outstanding job. Contrast him with Boris if you like.0 -
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some timePeterC said:
Both extremes I think will be driven more by what they fear than by what they want. The Brexiteers fear Remain, the Europhiles fear No Deal. TM is probably in a stronger position than appears.rottenborough said:
Bring it on!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.0 -
duplicate sorry0
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CETA is the only landing point. The quicker May realises the better. Chequers is dead and a watered down Chequers will get opposed by Labour and voted down by the ERG. Even if she got it through, it would not last - May would get dethroned and the next Leaver PM would wind it back. But Tory Remainers will not vote down CETA for a No Deal alternative.Polruan said:
I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.archer101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
Even Barnier knows that CETA is the way forward, and as soon as he backs down on the stupid NI backstop idea that is what we can have. If not, No Deal is fine and we will agree CETA later.
What the last couple of months have shown is that there is no genuine support for Soft Brexit and no realistic plan for making it happen.0 -
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
I disliked Osborne since 2011, Brexit has nothing to do with itNigel_Foremain said:
Your view of the man is coloured because you didn't like the fact that he called Brexit for what it has become (a f*****g disaster). He may have over egged the immediate effects, perhaps, but there was a reasonable case that needed to be outlined to the electorate and 52% of them chose to ignore it in favour of a pack of nationalistic lies and distortions.Alanbrooke said:
Not at all Mr TTOPPING said:
He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.DavidL said:
It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.TOPPING said:
Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.currystar said:
What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???TheScreamingEagles said:Slackbladder said:
all together now....currystar said:What an incompetent government
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470689
#despitebrexit
*Cough*
We haven’t left yet.
the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,
A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
The reality is that Osborne was most definitely up to the job. I never liked him as a person, but given the crappy hand he was given by the last Labour government he did a pretty outstanding job. Contrast him with Boris if you like.0 -
I look forward to your stealing Roger's mantle.archer101au said:
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
(edit)
May will be gone by Christmas.
Doubling down.
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Mr tpfkar, I think (and hope) you might be right. I have never been a fan of TMay, but she has the distinct advantage of not being Boris, Rees-Mogg or Jeremy Corbyn0
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That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
I am not remotely worried by talk of a second referendum.tpfkar said:
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?archer101au said:
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
I get worked up about May selling out the nation for her own self interest and giving away all the benefits of Brexit. But I think in the end her deal will never happen because when the public is faced with the shambles that she 'might' be able to come up with, her support will collapse. Chequers was just the first phase of that process.0 -
4.4 on BF.Nigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
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“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.Philip_Thompson said:
[Citation Needed]TheScreamingEagles said:Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1039062449524232193
“We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”0 -
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May isn't selling Australia out.archer101au said:
I am not remotely worried by talk of a second referendum.tpfkar said:
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?archer101au said:
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would bearcher101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
I get worked up about May selling out the nation for her own self interest and giving away all the benefits of Brexit. But I think in the end her deal will never happen because when the public is faced with the shambles that she 'might' be able to come up with, her support will collapse. Chequers was just the first phase of that process.0 -
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
Mr Archer, do you think there is much evidence of support for "Hard" Brexit? Only among self-harm ideologues, lunatics and people who don't live here I suggest0
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What a joke. One by one the Brexiteers are awaking from their dreaming and feeling the cold pinch of the world as it really is.TheScreamingEagles said:Well you all know what I think about the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1039062449524232193
Deluded.0 -
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!0
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Well none of that is wrong to be fair to Fox.TheScreamingEagles said:
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.
“We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”
However it is framed ceteris paribus and ignores the rather important pour encourage les autres neccesity of the EU not to be seen to be giving a leaving nation a superior deal to one part of the EU, which is of course a significant weight on the EU's side of the negotiation.0 -
No she will notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
Not wishful thinking, just a different analysis. Any deal has to pass muster with the Leavers in her parliamentary party, her party members and the country. She can't execute Brexit against the express views of the people who won the referendum. It might not be the Brexit I would like, but it has to be credible. Chequers strained credibility to breaking point already.Nigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
But Chequers is dead, and she has no room to manoeuvre on the compromises the EU will demand - eg a CU and therefore no independent trade policy plus, as Boris correctly points out, a suicide vest on NI.
Her current approach of deal-lite simply won't pass muster. The idea that PMs can go to Brussels, come back with a load of fudge and get away with it died with David Cameron. Her deal-lite will be impossible to defend and she is on record saying any number of times that it would be unacceptable.
My view is that she will probably realise she has failed and resign. I suspect her reception at the Tory conference will be the tipping point. The next most likely scenario is that she actually recommends no deal.0 -
How much are you in for on Betfair on this ?archer101au said:
Not wishful thinking, just a different analysis. Any deal has to pass muster with the Leavers in her parliamentary party, her party members and the country. She can't execute Brexit against the express views of the people who won the referendum. It might not be the Brexit I would like, but it has to be credible. Chequers strained credibility to breaking point already.Nigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
But Chequers is dead, and she has no room to manoeuvre on the compromises the EU will demand - eg a CU and therefore no independent trade policy plus, as Boris correctly points out, a suicide vest on NI.
Her current approach of deal-lite simply won't pass muster. The idea that PMs can go to Brussels, come back with a load of fudge and get away with it died with David Cameron. Her deal-lite will be impossible to defend and she is on record saying any number of times that it would be unacceptable.
My view is that she will probably realise she has failed and resign. I suspect her reception at the Tory conference will be the tipping point. The next most likely scenario is that she actually recommends no deal.0 -
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
There's no genuine support for soft Brexit. There's no genuine support for crash Brexit. (In both cases I'm assuming you mean enough support to get it through the Commons). There's limited evidence of the supporters of either of those two Brexits being sufficiently committed to the general concept of Brexit to support the other option.archer101au said:
...Polruan said:
I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.archer101au said:
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.rottenborough said:
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.Richard_Nabavi said:I think this is probably right, although in the current unstable landscape, it's hard to be sure:
https://twitter.com/nickmacpherson2/status/1039075942235348992
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
What the last couple of months have shown is that there is no genuine support for Soft Brexit and no realistic plan for making it happen.
There's perhaps more support for Remain than either of the other two options. What's the correct democratic response to that?0 -
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking aboutarcher101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
It is interesting that Boris' maneuvering now seems timed for her to go in the dangerous September (conference) - November (EU negotiating deadline) period, rather than for March.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No she will notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
I certainly think the mood right now is to keep her on until at least March, which is why I can't imagine conference being what does for her. But if she comes back from the EU with either no deal or a deal which is clearly completely unacceptable, the mood will change fast.0 -
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?0
-
Cook on 95.
Last test. Last innings.0 -
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
-
0
-
What a way to get to a 100.0
-
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/Nigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Care to address the evidence provided?0 -
Cook - 100 !!!!0
-
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
On an overthrow.
0 -
Not quite up there with Nasser Hussain's famous cover drive.TheScreamingEagles said:What a way to get to a 100.
0 -
Fair play, how many batsmen got a century in their last innings?0
-
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking aboutarcher101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
101 - 1 run + 4 over throwsrottenborough said:Cook - 100 !!!!
0 -
FANTASTIC0
-
HMRC is desperately understaffed and trying to ... 'improve' their systems instead of just sticking with what works ?Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
Get over yourselfarcher101au said:
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking aboutarcher101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
No, Australia is a sovereign state so doesn't have these problems.JosiasJessop said:
May isn't selling Australia out.0 -
Now these are some of Rob's predictions from last December
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947537566177382400
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/9475384351574466570 -
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
Grrrrr.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
Got start my online form this week. Hope they sort this.0 -
0
-
I think the House is gone for the GOP, they're just too far behind - the Senate is interesting, certainly laying the Dems there is not free money.TheScreamingEagles said:Now these are some of Rob's predictions from last December
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947537566177382400
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/9475384351574466570 -
Hope he's correct on 2nd.TheScreamingEagles said:Now these are some of Rob's predictions from last December
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947537566177382400
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947538435157446657
I have a few quid on Dems taking Senate.0 -
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0 -
The link talks about "seven unspecified EU regulations...", which isn't exactly evidence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Get over yourselfarcher101au said:
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking aboutarcher101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
It goes on (for example) about the cost of chemicals regulations - are we really likely to abolish them ?
As usual with these arguments, it's generalised waffle.0 -
You are in for a very big surprisearcher101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0 -
It's something specific to this particular tax return. My own went through with no problems at all.rottenborough said:
Grrrrr.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
Got start my online form this week. Hope they sort this.0 -
My prediction for a long time was for the Dems to take the House and the GOP to increase their majority in the Senate.Pulpstar said:
I think the House is gone for the GOP, they're just too far behind - the Senate is interesting, certainly laying the Dems there is not free money.TheScreamingEagles said:Now these are some of Rob's predictions from last December
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947537566177382400
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947538435157446657
If they do take the Senate then I need to reevaluate my successful conviction betting position.0 -
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?archer101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0 -
titNigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....0 -
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.0 -
VVD officials urge party not to admit ‘dickhead’ councillor as MP
VVD party members have urged the leadership to block the nomination of a prospective MP over a series of inflammatory tweets.
Thierry Aartsen, currently party group leader on Breda city council, is under pressure not to take his seat after the messages were circulated at the weekend. In one tweet from 2009, Aartsen voiced his frustration at a train being delayed by a body on the line with the words: ‘Suicidals, be more creative!’
More recently he praised football club NAC Breda for a dance routine on the pitch in which the performers dressed up as the blackface character Zwarte Piet while a satirical song about politician Sylvana Simons blasted from the speakers. Simons has received threats in the past for her outspoken opposition to Zwarte Piet.
Aartsen is due to replace former defence minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who is quitting parliament to become the UN special envoy to Iraq, under party rules.
VVD alderman Rob Berkhout appealed via Twitter for the party’s parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff and chairwoman Christianne van der Wal to block Aartsen’s appointment. ‘I can’t imagine that we as a group want to have this kind of dickhead among our number,’ he said.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/09/vvd-officials-urge-party-not-to-admit-dickhead-councillor-as-mp/
0 -
There are three different tests there. May can almost certainly agree an EEA/EFTA/customs union kind of deal with the EU, respecting the indivisibility of the four freedoms etc. Ot a minimal WTO deal with the hope of a CETAish agreement in future.archer101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
A deal she can "bring home", i.e. get past the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party probably doesn't exist.
A WTO deal with all the disruption that would entail isn't likely to survive contact with the electorate.0 -
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.Stereotomy said:
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.0 -
That sounds extremely weak set of reasons to not be an MP...TheScreamingEagles said:VVD officials urge party not to admit ‘dickhead’ councillor as MP
VVD party members have urged the leadership to block the nomination of a prospective MP over a series of inflammatory tweets.
Thierry Aartsen, currently party group leader on Breda city council, is under pressure not to take his seat after the messages were circulated at the weekend. In one tweet from 2009, Aartsen voiced his frustration at a train being delayed by a body on the line with the words: ‘Suicidals, be more creative!’
More recently he praised football club NAC Breda for a dance routine on the pitch in which the performers dressed up as the blackface character Zwarte Piet while a satirical song about politician Sylvana Simons blasted from the speakers. Simons has received threats in the past for her outspoken opposition to Zwarte Piet.
Aartsen is due to replace former defence minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who is quitting parliament to become the UN special envoy to Iraq, under party rules.
VVD alderman Rob Berkhout appealed via Twitter for the party’s parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff and chairwoman Christianne van der Wal to block Aartsen’s appointment. ‘I can’t imagine that we as a group want to have this kind of dickhead among our number,’ he said.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/09/vvd-officials-urge-party-not-to-admit-dickhead-councillor-as-mp/0 -
usually they have a helpline for ITRichard_Nabavi said:
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.Stereotomy said:
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/online-services-helpdesk
mind you youll probably need to wait for 45 minutes with no guarantee of a resolution0 -
Some of this lot will find a ditch to die in whatever.Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
They want to be able to say they were against whatever happens, it was a betrayal etc etc, so they can avoid be accused of being responsible for this act of inculpable stupidity.0 -
Tried that several times, have got sent round in circles. They don't seem to have any procedure for escalating a problem which is outside the front-line staff's knowledge to someone who might understand it.Alanbrooke said:
usuyally they have a helpline for ITRichard_Nabavi said:
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.Stereotomy said:
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/online-services-helpdesk
mind you youll probably need to wait for 45 minutes with no guarantee of a resolution0 -
Mrs J had exactly this symptom a while back. It eventually worked for her, but I cannot remember what she did. The problem might just have gone away. It was very annoyong.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
Interesting. If they have refused under Section 36 (2), there needs to be a named "qualified person" doing the refusal.Scott_P said:
https://ico.org.uk/media/for-organisations/documents/1175/section_36_prejudice_to_effective_conduct_of_public_affairs.pdf0 -
Afternoon all
Away from Brexit, some serious developments in the world of local Government finance where the greatest pressure on finances currently isn't the provision of social care for adults but the provision of services and help for vulnerable children:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/09/childrens-commissioner-demands-clarity-councils-duties?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0 -
I believe government departments will generally refuse to discuss the existence or content of legal advice on policy matters. Seems fair enough, actually.stodge said:
Interesting. If they have refused under Section 36 (2), there needs to be a named "qualified person" doing the refusal.Scott_P said:
https://ico.org.uk/media/for-organisations/documents/1175/section_36_prejudice_to_effective_conduct_of_public_affairs.pdf0 -
Interesting, thanks.JosiasJessop said:
Mrs J had exactly this symptom a while back. It eventually worked for her, but I cannot remember what she did. The problem might just have gone away. It was very annoyong.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
0 -
The final version of the new boundaries has been published. Not much change to the actual boundaries from the revised proposals but a lot of names have changed e.g. Devizes to Devizes and East Wiltshire0
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They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:
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It does seem unlikely HMRC's end would be down for a whole fortnight without anyone noticing. Try clearing your browser cache in case you have some outdated javascript or the like cached in there that is sending you to the wrong place. To contact a human (or at least an AI chatbot) try twitter, though they'd most likely direct you back to the helpdesk.Richard_Nabavi said:
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.Stereotomy said:
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.Richard_Nabavi said:
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.Stereotomy said:
What's the error?Richard_Nabavi said:Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.0 -
Interesting report. Thanks for that.archer101au said:
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/Nigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Care to address the evidence provided?
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Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html0 -
One other thing that I've just noticed if you look at the comments.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.Tissue_Price said:
The full address is listed of anyone who's commented.0 -
Londoners oppose Nigel Farage standing for mayor by 62 per cent to 22 per cent. Almost every voter group opposes his candidacy with the exception of Leave backers, who were a lukewarm 45 per cent for and 35 against. Remainers were 84 per cent against.
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The problem of the NI Border is directly proportional to the need for the DUP to form a majority. If the dice had not been rolled and her government reliant, the issue would have barely registered. It's a negotiation wedge, little more.Stereotomy said:
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?archer101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0 -
If you want to see the detail on the costs of REACH and it's effect then the CEFIC state of the EU chemicals industry is a good place.geoffw said:
Interesting report. Thanks for that.archer101au said:
https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-chequers-theresa-may-brexit-plan-would-save-uk-business-billions/Nigel_Foremain said:
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.archer101au said:
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.Nigel_Foremain said:Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Care to address the evidence provided?
http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/0 -
You seriously need to learn some history.notme said:
The problem of the NI Border is directly proportional to the need for the DUP to form a majority. If the dice had not been rolled and her government reliant, the issue would have barely registered. It's a negotiation wedge, little more.Stereotomy said:
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?archer101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0 -
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young EaglesTheScreamingEagles said:Lots of London YouGov polling here
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html
havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?0 -
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/BCE2018/status/1039117896729997312
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf0 -
As far as I can see the only change since initial draft for the whole of Cornwall is adding ‘Redruth’ to the name the Redruth/Camborne/Falmouth constituency and a small border shift. Still can’t imagine the new north coast constituency spanning the border into Devon is going to be wildly popular.GarethoftheVale2 said:The final version of the new boundaries has been published. Not much change to the actual boundaries from the revised proposals but a lot of names have changed e.g. Devizes to Devizes and East Wiltshire
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OT - I wonder how people in NI would enjoy losing the NHS should they leave the UK and find themselves in the Irish health system instead which has a significant private insurance based system for higher earners.0
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Those are big moves, and these are quite large too:TheScreamingEagles said:
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 37% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (+4)
UKIP: 4% (-3)
GRN: 1% (-1)
via @Survation, surveyed 07 Sep
Chgs. w/ 01 Sep0 -
Fun Quiz Answer Time:
So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"
Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.
The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.0 -
You were wise to omit the year.archer101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time0 -
I was referring to a deal that MAY can bring home. She has ruled out EEA so many times I don't think she will do that. She is obviously against CETA or she would have done that already and she is not going for WTO.Polruan said:
There are three different tests there. May can almost certainly agree an EEA/EFTA/customs union kind of deal with the EU, respecting the indivisibility of the four freedoms etc. Ot a minimal WTO deal with the hope of a CETAish agreement in future.archer101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
A deal she can "bring home", i.e. get past the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party probably doesn't exist.
A WTO deal with all the disruption that would entail isn't likely to survive contact with the electorate.
So, does anyone have a suggestion of an outcome that May can realistically deliver being presumably some variant of Chequers?0 -
That was my assessment which is why I would support a Chequers style agreement (through gritted teeth). In fact the 3rd is contrary to Chequers which indicates that there will be an end to free movement (whether the EU are minded to accept that "division of the 4 freedoms" or not is likely to be the biggest sticking point IMO).Richard_Nabavi said:
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:rottenborough said:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
I think we could have done better but not from here and the alternatives available are worse. The incompetence of Davis and indeed Boris as well as May over the last 18 months carries a price.0 -
Well not from you. If you have an idea, feel free, but sarcastic comments do not a policy position make.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are in for a very big surprisearcher101au said:
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.Nigel_Foremain said:
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthenedStereotomy said:
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fastNigel_Foremain said:
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests notarcher101au said:
May will be gone by Christmas.tpfkar said:
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.0
