My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?
What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.
Not at all Mr T
the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,
A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
Your view of the man is coloured because you didn't like the fact that he called Brexit for what it has become (a f*****g disaster). He may have over egged the immediate effects, perhaps, but there was a reasonable case that needed to be outlined to the electorate and 52% of them chose to ignore it in favour of a pack of nationalistic lies and distortions.
The reality is that Osborne was most definitely up to the job. I never liked him as a person, but given the crappy hand he was given by the last Labour government he did a pretty outstanding job. Contrast him with Boris if you like.
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
Bring it on!
Both extremes I think will be driven more by what they fear than by what they want. The Brexiteers fear Remain, the Europhiles fear No Deal. TM is probably in a stronger position than appears.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.
CETA is the only landing point. The quicker May realises the better. Chequers is dead and a watered down Chequers will get opposed by Labour and voted down by the ERG. Even if she got it through, it would not last - May would get dethroned and the next Leaver PM would wind it back. But Tory Remainers will not vote down CETA for a No Deal alternative.
Even Barnier knows that CETA is the way forward, and as soon as he backs down on the stupid NI backstop idea that is what we can have. If not, No Deal is fine and we will agree CETA later.
What the last couple of months have shown is that there is no genuine support for Soft Brexit and no realistic plan for making it happen.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
What happened to the requirement for an emergency budget???
Mark Carney had it covered. Lowered rates, made it clear to the market that they were in safe hands.
It's really laughable. It will be the end of the world, massive cuts, unemployment, gloom and disaster. Alternatively we could cut interest rates by 0.25%.
He stood ready. He judged that that was what required at that point. Turns out the market was reassured by the planning he had performed. And as we all know we did suffer an immediate and tangible hit to the exchange rate.
Not at all Mr T
the forecasts of gloom were only Osborne admitting thats what would happen if he stayed CoE. He just wasnt up to the job,
A change of chancellor and the gloom diappears, nothing to do with Carney
Your view of the man is coloured because you didn't like the fact that he called Brexit for what it has become (a f*****g disaster). He may have over egged the immediate effects, perhaps, but there was a reasonable case that needed to be outlined to the electorate and 52% of them chose to ignore it in favour of a pack of nationalistic lies and distortions.
The reality is that Osborne was most definitely up to the job. I never liked him as a person, but given the crappy hand he was given by the last Labour government he did a pretty outstanding job. Contrast him with Boris if you like.
I disliked Osborne since 2011, Brexit has nothing to do with it
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
I look forward to your stealing Roger's mantle. (edit) May will be gone by Christmas.
Mr tpfkar, I think (and hope) you might be right. I have never been a fan of TMay, but she has the distinct advantage of not being Boris, Rees-Mogg or Jeremy Corbyn
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?
I am not remotely worried by talk of a second referendum.
I get worked up about May selling out the nation for her own self interest and giving away all the benefits of Brexit. But I think in the end her deal will never happen because when the public is faced with the shambles that she 'might' be able to come up with, her support will collapse. Chequers was just the first phase of that process.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.
“We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
The ERG are all huff and puff. If they vote down TM deal they run the real risk of a second referendum and the Country voting to remain, and how ironic that would be
There is no risk whatsoever of a second referendum. If the ERG vote down a deal, there will be No Deal. That is the legal and political reality.
You seem mighty worked up about something that can't possibly happen then?
I am not remotely worried by talk of a second referendum.
I get worked up about May selling out the nation for her own self interest and giving away all the benefits of Brexit. But I think in the end her deal will never happen because when the public is faced with the shambles that she 'might' be able to come up with, her support will collapse. Chequers was just the first phase of that process.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
Mr Archer, do you think there is much evidence of support for "Hard" Brexit? Only among self-harm ideologues, lunatics and people who don't live here I suggest
“The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history. “We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”
Well none of that is wrong to be fair to Fox. However it is framed ceteris paribus and ignores the rather important pour encourage les autres neccesity of the EU not to be seen to be giving a leaving nation a superior deal to one part of the EU, which is of course a significant weight on the EU's side of the negotiation.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
Not wishful thinking, just a different analysis. Any deal has to pass muster with the Leavers in her parliamentary party, her party members and the country. She can't execute Brexit against the express views of the people who won the referendum. It might not be the Brexit I would like, but it has to be credible. Chequers strained credibility to breaking point already.
But Chequers is dead, and she has no room to manoeuvre on the compromises the EU will demand - eg a CU and therefore no independent trade policy plus, as Boris correctly points out, a suicide vest on NI.
Her current approach of deal-lite simply won't pass muster. The idea that PMs can go to Brussels, come back with a load of fudge and get away with it died with David Cameron. Her deal-lite will be impossible to defend and she is on record saying any number of times that it would be unacceptable.
My view is that she will probably realise she has failed and resign. I suspect her reception at the Tory conference will be the tipping point. The next most likely scenario is that she actually recommends no deal.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
Not wishful thinking, just a different analysis. Any deal has to pass muster with the Leavers in her parliamentary party, her party members and the country. She can't execute Brexit against the express views of the people who won the referendum. It might not be the Brexit I would like, but it has to be credible. Chequers strained credibility to breaking point already.
But Chequers is dead, and she has no room to manoeuvre on the compromises the EU will demand - eg a CU and therefore no independent trade policy plus, as Boris correctly points out, a suicide vest on NI.
Her current approach of deal-lite simply won't pass muster. The idea that PMs can go to Brussels, come back with a load of fudge and get away with it died with David Cameron. Her deal-lite will be impossible to defend and she is on record saying any number of times that it would be unacceptable.
My view is that she will probably realise she has failed and resign. I suspect her reception at the Tory conference will be the tipping point. The next most likely scenario is that she actually recommends no deal.
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking about
My wife made a very good point on this: there's not going to be any opportunity to 'vote against Chequers', because the vote will be on whatever deal is reached with the EU, which is not the same thing.
As I've said before, are the ERG really going to go through the lobby as the LibDems, the SNP, Chukka Umunna and Keir Starmer to defeat it, and vice versa? The two sides would have had to have reached diametrically opposite conclusions as to what a defeat would lead to. How likely is that?
Plus, the Tory high command and Whips will throw everything they can lay their hands on to get the votes through the lobby. This will be an operation the like of which we haven't seen in some time.
So if any of the ERG still dream of a career or want an ounce of help from CCHQ next GE, then will have to be mighty sure that May falls if they vote against the deal.
Plus - how many of them have skeletons in those cupboards? If the number really is 50-80, then a few at least.
Making the continued incorrect assumption that the EU will accept Chequers, or something very like it. They won’t. The best May will get is a deal-lite, where we give away the NI backstop and the money in return for a non binding pile of fudge. That will never get through the Commons. It is indefensible and everyone will know it.
This latest ‘view’ is just No 10 spin, trying to pretend there are less rebels than there really are. They have been running this line via their favoured sources for a few days. Fooling nobody.
The best chance May has now is for Barnier to steer her towards CETA.
I was with you until the last para. CETA doesn't have more Commons support than "deal-lite" - the only argument that it does relies on the idea that MPs will vote for it to avoid something worse despite thinking it's a bad idea, which is a dangerous assumption.
...
What the last couple of months have shown is that there is no genuine support for Soft Brexit and no realistic plan for making it happen.
There's no genuine support for soft Brexit. There's no genuine support for crash Brexit. (In both cases I'm assuming you mean enough support to get it through the Commons). There's limited evidence of the supporters of either of those two Brexits being sufficiently committed to the general concept of Brexit to support the other option.
There's perhaps more support for Remain than either of the other two options. What's the correct democratic response to that?
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
No she will not
It is interesting that Boris' maneuvering now seems timed for her to go in the dangerous September (conference) - November (EU negotiating deadline) period, rather than for March.
I certainly think the mood right now is to keep her on until at least March, which is why I can't imagine conference being what does for her. But if she comes back from the EU with either no deal or a deal which is clearly completely unacceptable, the mood will change fast.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking about
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
HMRC is desperately understaffed and trying to ... 'improve' their systems instead of just sticking with what works ?
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking about
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
Grrrrr.
Got start my online form this week. Hope they sort this.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
It is not just the EU that doesn't know what they are talking about
That is not an answer. I posted the link. Explain yourself!
Get over yourself
The link talks about "seven unspecified EU regulations...", which isn't exactly evidence. It goes on (for example) about the cost of chemicals regulations - are we really likely to abolish them ?
As usual with these arguments, it's generalised waffle.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
Grrrrr.
Got start my online form this week. Hope they sort this.
It's something specific to this particular tax return. My own went through with no problems at all.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
VVD officials urge party not to admit ‘dickhead’ councillor as MP
VVD party members have urged the leadership to block the nomination of a prospective MP over a series of inflammatory tweets.
Thierry Aartsen, currently party group leader on Breda city council, is under pressure not to take his seat after the messages were circulated at the weekend. In one tweet from 2009, Aartsen voiced his frustration at a train being delayed by a body on the line with the words: ‘Suicidals, be more creative!’
More recently he praised football club NAC Breda for a dance routine on the pitch in which the performers dressed up as the blackface character Zwarte Piet while a satirical song about politician Sylvana Simons blasted from the speakers. Simons has received threats in the past for her outspoken opposition to Zwarte Piet.
Aartsen is due to replace former defence minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who is quitting parliament to become the UN special envoy to Iraq, under party rules.
VVD alderman Rob Berkhout appealed via Twitter for the party’s parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff and chairwoman Christianne van der Wal to block Aartsen’s appointment. ‘I can’t imagine that we as a group want to have this kind of dickhead among our number,’ he said.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
There are three different tests there. May can almost certainly agree an EEA/EFTA/customs union kind of deal with the EU, respecting the indivisibility of the four freedoms etc. Ot a minimal WTO deal with the hope of a CETAish agreement in future.
A deal she can "bring home", i.e. get past the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party probably doesn't exist.
A WTO deal with all the disruption that would entail isn't likely to survive contact with the electorate.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
VVD officials urge party not to admit ‘dickhead’ councillor as MP
VVD party members have urged the leadership to block the nomination of a prospective MP over a series of inflammatory tweets.
Thierry Aartsen, currently party group leader on Breda city council, is under pressure not to take his seat after the messages were circulated at the weekend. In one tweet from 2009, Aartsen voiced his frustration at a train being delayed by a body on the line with the words: ‘Suicidals, be more creative!’
More recently he praised football club NAC Breda for a dance routine on the pitch in which the performers dressed up as the blackface character Zwarte Piet while a satirical song about politician Sylvana Simons blasted from the speakers. Simons has received threats in the past for her outspoken opposition to Zwarte Piet.
Aartsen is due to replace former defence minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who is quitting parliament to become the UN special envoy to Iraq, under party rules.
VVD alderman Rob Berkhout appealed via Twitter for the party’s parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff and chairwoman Christianne van der Wal to block Aartsen’s appointment. ‘I can’t imagine that we as a group want to have this kind of dickhead among our number,’ he said.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
Some of this lot will find a ditch to die in whatever.
They want to be able to say they were against whatever happens, it was a betrayal etc etc, so they can avoid be accused of being responsible for this act of inculpable stupidity.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
mind you youll probably need to wait for 45 minutes with no guarantee of a resolution
Tried that several times, have got sent round in circles. They don't seem to have any procedure for escalating a problem which is outside the front-line staff's knowledge to someone who might understand it.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
Mrs J had exactly this symptom a while back. It eventually worked for her, but I cannot remember what she did. The problem might just have gone away. It was very annoyong.
I believe government departments will generally refuse to discuss the existence or content of legal advice on policy matters. Seems fair enough, actually.
Away from Brexit, some serious developments in the world of local Government finance where the greatest pressure on finances currently isn't the provision of social care for adults but the provision of services and help for vulnerable children:
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
Mrs J had exactly this symptom a while back. It eventually worked for her, but I cannot remember what she did. The problem might just have gone away. It was very annoyong.
The final version of the new boundaries has been published. Not much change to the actual boundaries from the revised proposals but a lot of names have changed e.g. Devizes to Devizes and East Wiltshire
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
Completely off topic: Does anyone have the email address of a sentient being in HMRC's software team? We're trying to file my wife's tax return and there is a server-end error every single time at the final stage (when she confirms that it's all correct and wants to submit it). Needless to say the helpdesks haven't the faintest clue and ignore the actual content of what we tell them. Anyone got any ideas of how to escalate it?
What's the error?
It systematically says that the 'service is temporarily unavailable ' but this is not a temporary problem, it has happened every single time over the last couple of weeks. It's clearly some crash or bug on their server end.
That's a bit weird. If possible you should try doing it through a different browser or via a different internet connection (or ideally both). But yeah, quite likely the problem is at their end.
Done that. It's not a browser-end problem. We just need to find someone in HMRC who knows what these big words mean.
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
It does seem unlikely HMRC's end would be down for a whole fortnight without anyone noticing. Try clearing your browser cache in case you have some outdated javascript or the like cached in there that is sending you to the wrong place. To contact a human (or at least an AI chatbot) try twitter, though they'd most likely direct you back to the helpdesk.
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
They still haven't sorted out the boundary between Welwyn Hatfield and Hertsmere. It runs higgldy piggldy through the top of Potters Bar when there's enough rural bits to give potentially clean boundaries. Looking at the comments, it was gratifying to see that someone agreed with my original comment on there that Hertsmere is a stupid constituency with no shared history or direct links.
One other thing that I've just noticed if you look at the comments. The full address is listed of anyone who's commented.
Londoners oppose Nigel Farage standing for mayor by 62 per cent to 22 per cent. Almost every voter group opposes his candidacy with the exception of Leave backers, who were a lukewarm 45 per cent for and 35 against. Remainers were 84 per cent against.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?
The problem of the NI Border is directly proportional to the need for the DUP to form a majority. If the dice had not been rolled and her government reliant, the issue would have barely registered. It's a negotiation wedge, little more.
Ah, Mr Archer, those mystical benefits of Brexit. Much spoken about, but somewhat lacking in any detail. Snakeoil alert!
The EU have already acknowledged them. Barnier is now on record saying that the UK not being subject to EU regulations JUST ON SERVICES will be worth tens of billions a year in advantage to the UK. That is why he rejected the Chequers approach.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
Haha, you have taken over the title of official PB Comical Ali. Did you do a deal with Alanbrooke when he realised that the role was making him look a bit silly? Stop trying to con yourself and others. Brexit is a disaster for the country and those that advocated it will be held to account.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
But isn't the fudge required to deal with the NI border? The same issue which you claim can easily be brushed aside?
The problem of the NI Border is directly proportional to the need for the DUP to form a majority. If the dice had not been rolled and her government reliant, the issue would have barely registered. It's a negotiation wedge, little more.
Prediction: Labour MPs whose seats are abolished will resign as a protest against Corbyn or antisemitism or Corbyn's antisemitism, on a point of principle.
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
The final version of the new boundaries has been published. Not much change to the actual boundaries from the revised proposals but a lot of names have changed e.g. Devizes to Devizes and East Wiltshire
As far as I can see the only change since initial draft for the whole of Cornwall is adding ‘Redruth’ to the name the Redruth/Camborne/Falmouth constituency and a small border shift. Still can’t imagine the new north coast constituency spanning the border into Devon is going to be wildly popular.
OT - I wonder how people in NI would enjoy losing the NHS should they leave the UK and find themselves in the Irish health system instead which has a significant private insurance based system for higher earners.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
There are three different tests there. May can almost certainly agree an EEA/EFTA/customs union kind of deal with the EU, respecting the indivisibility of the four freedoms etc. Ot a minimal WTO deal with the hope of a CETAish agreement in future.
A deal she can "bring home", i.e. get past the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party probably doesn't exist.
A WTO deal with all the disruption that would entail isn't likely to survive contact with the electorate.
I was referring to a deal that MAY can bring home. She has ruled out EEA so many times I don't think she will do that. She is obviously against CETA or she would have done that already and she is not going for WTO.
So, does anyone have a suggestion of an outcome that May can realistically deliver being presumably some variant of Chequers?
Looking at their website, they list three specific gripes:
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
That was my assessment which is why I would support a Chequers style agreement (through gritted teeth). In fact the 3rd is contrary to Chequers which indicates that there will be an end to free movement (whether the EU are minded to accept that "division of the 4 freedoms" or not is likely to be the biggest sticking point IMO).
I think we could have done better but not from here and the alternatives available are worse. The incompetence of Davis and indeed Boris as well as May over the last 18 months carries a price.
I think that is logical and TM could be in post for quite some time
Yes I also agree. Either the remainers or the hard Brexit fans know that they risk a far worse outcome if they bring her down in an uncontrolled way - and that's just on Brexit, let alone the risk of letting Corbyn in. Hence the ongoing stalemate which is strengthening TM.
May will be gone by Christmas.
That may be your wishful thinking. Careful analysis suggests not
If she comes back from EU negotiations empty-handed, the dynamic will shift very fast
If she does, the clamour for a further divisive referendum will increase, and if Boris or any other Brexit-apologist becomes leader the Tory party will fracture. I think it is unlikely she will come back with nothing. A last minute compromise will be hammered out and many will breath a sigh of relief and her position will be strengthened
So, here is a challenge for the Remainers. Can any of you outline what deal you think May can actually agree with the EU? Specifically, rather than just saying 'there will be a lot of fudge'? Because to be fair, they have been trying to fudge this for rather a long time and have gotten nowhere and time is just about to run out.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
You are in for a very big surprise
Well not from you. If you have an idea, feel free, but sarcastic comments do not a policy position make.
Comments
The reality is that Osborne was most definitely up to the job. I never liked him as a person, but given the crappy hand he was given by the last Labour government he did a pretty outstanding job. Contrast him with Boris if you like.
Even Barnier knows that CETA is the way forward, and as soon as he backs down on the stupid NI backstop idea that is what we can have. If not, No Deal is fine and we will agree CETA later.
What the last couple of months have shown is that there is no genuine support for Soft Brexit and no realistic plan for making it happen.
(edit)
May will be gone by Christmas.
Doubling down.
I get worked up about May selling out the nation for her own self interest and giving away all the benefits of Brexit. But I think in the end her deal will never happen because when the public is faced with the shambles that she 'might' be able to come up with, her support will collapse. Chequers was just the first phase of that process.
“We are already beginning with zero tariffs, and we are already beginning at the point of maximal regulatory equivalence, as it is called. In other words, our rules and our laws are exactly the same.”
Deluded.
However it is framed ceteris paribus and ignores the rather important pour encourage les autres neccesity of the EU not to be seen to be giving a leaving nation a superior deal to one part of the EU, which is of course a significant weight on the EU's side of the negotiation.
But Chequers is dead, and she has no room to manoeuvre on the compromises the EU will demand - eg a CU and therefore no independent trade policy plus, as Boris correctly points out, a suicide vest on NI.
Her current approach of deal-lite simply won't pass muster. The idea that PMs can go to Brussels, come back with a load of fudge and get away with it died with David Cameron. Her deal-lite will be impossible to defend and she is on record saying any number of times that it would be unacceptable.
My view is that she will probably realise she has failed and resign. I suspect her reception at the Tory conference will be the tipping point. The next most likely scenario is that she actually recommends no deal.
Of course, if you think the EU don't know what they are talking about.....
There's perhaps more support for Remain than either of the other two options. What's the correct democratic response to that?
I certainly think the mood right now is to keep her on until at least March, which is why I can't imagine conference being what does for her. But if she comes back from the EU with either no deal or a deal which is clearly completely unacceptable, the mood will change fast.
Last test. Last innings.
Care to address the evidence provided?
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947537566177382400
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/947538435157446657
Got start my online form this week. Hope they sort this.
https://twitter.com/kiranstacey/status/1039078414030970880
I have a few quid on Dems taking Senate.
If anyone can come up with a credible version of a deal that May can actually bring home (other than CETA!) then maybe I can revise my prediction as to her survival chances. But right now, I don't see any deal that she can present that will survive contact with the electorate.
It goes on (for example) about the cost of chemicals regulations - are we really likely to abolish them ?
As usual with these arguments, it's generalised waffle.
If they do take the Senate then I need to reevaluate my successful conviction betting position.
The Chequers whitepaper does not deliver Brexit.
We object specifically to the following aspects of the Chequers white paper:
- The common rule book allows ECJ overrule and severely hampers new free trade deals
- The backstop allows Northern Ireland to be separated from the rest of the UK
- Free movement of labour permits EU citizens to collect benefits whether in or out of work, without making UK contributions
The second is irrelevant if a deal is reached, and by definition irrelevant if a deal isn't reached. The third seems to be wrong. That leaves the first, which has some force, but is hardly a ditch to die on.
VVD party members have urged the leadership to block the nomination of a prospective MP over a series of inflammatory tweets.
Thierry Aartsen, currently party group leader on Breda city council, is under pressure not to take his seat after the messages were circulated at the weekend. In one tweet from 2009, Aartsen voiced his frustration at a train being delayed by a body on the line with the words: ‘Suicidals, be more creative!’
More recently he praised football club NAC Breda for a dance routine on the pitch in which the performers dressed up as the blackface character Zwarte Piet while a satirical song about politician Sylvana Simons blasted from the speakers. Simons has received threats in the past for her outspoken opposition to Zwarte Piet.
Aartsen is due to replace former defence minister Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, who is quitting parliament to become the UN special envoy to Iraq, under party rules.
VVD alderman Rob Berkhout appealed via Twitter for the party’s parliamentary leader Klaas Dijkhoff and chairwoman Christianne van der Wal to block Aartsen’s appointment. ‘I can’t imagine that we as a group want to have this kind of dickhead among our number,’ he said.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2018/09/vvd-officials-urge-party-not-to-admit-dickhead-councillor-as-mp/
A deal she can "bring home", i.e. get past the extreme Brexit wing of the Conservative party probably doesn't exist.
A WTO deal with all the disruption that would entail isn't likely to survive contact with the electorate.
I think we might be reduced to writing to the head of HMRC asking whether they actually want the tax which this return shows my wife will owe them.
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-revenue-customs/contact/online-services-helpdesk
mind you youll probably need to wait for 45 minutes with no guarantee of a resolution
They want to be able to say they were against whatever happens, it was a betrayal etc etc, so they can avoid be accused of being responsible for this act of inculpable stupidity.
https://ico.org.uk/media/for-organisations/documents/1175/section_36_prejudice_to_effective_conduct_of_public_affairs.pdf
Away from Brexit, some serious developments in the world of local Government finance where the greatest pressure on finances currently isn't the provision of social care for adults but the provision of services and help for vulnerable children:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/09/childrens-commissioner-demands-clarity-councils-duties?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sadiq-khans-popularity-sinks-after-long-summer-of-violent-crime-a3931666.html
The full address is listed of anyone who's commented.
http://www.cefic.org/Facts-and-Figures/
havent seen Mr Tyndall around for a while - banned ? had a flounce ? won the lottery ?
Conservative MPs will resign as a protest against Chequers or for a second referendum, on a point of principle.
ETA the new boundaries report is at https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Final-recommendations-report.pdf
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+1)
LAB: 37% (-4)
LDEM: 10% (+4)
UKIP: 4% (-3)
GRN: 1% (-1)
via @Survation, surveyed 07 Sep
Chgs. w/ 01 Sep
So, On Friday I asked the question "What value do you think my house bought 5 years ago for £250,000 will be surveyed at"
Lots of you settled in for around £300,000ish pounds. The survey says: £335,000.
The property market is utterly mental. 85 Grand increase in 5 years is nonsense.
So, does anyone have a suggestion of an outcome that May can realistically deliver being presumably some variant of Chequers?
I think we could have done better but not from here and the alternatives available are worse. The incompetence of Davis and indeed Boris as well as May over the last 18 months carries a price.