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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why a united Ireland post Brexit is a real possibility
I cannot have been the only person that was astonished at Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley’s recent admission that she knew nothing of the place before taking office. I am probably being naïve, but you would have thought that someone appointed to such an important role would at least possess a passing knowledge of its history and the political skill required for such a position. Some have commended Bradley’s honesty. Yet her appointment reflects an arrogance about Ireland that seems to permeate the Conservative Party in 2018. Aptly displayed by Boris Johnson’s constant bemoaning of the importance of the Irish border question in Brexit negotiations.
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I can see the potential for both parties to lose votes but greater potential in the Tories. My guess at this stage would be for Labour to put on votes but nothing like the increase last time and for the Tories to lose votes.
Although to come back around to the topic I'm not sure how much he would personally force the issue of a united Ireland, if other events helped bring it about then he would be more willing than say May for example. Brexit and how that affects things is probably a bigger element of it.
Based on my somewhat limited knowledge (a touch above Karen Bradley's) I wonder if Brexit aside having the DUP as the main representatives of unionism is a driver in negative attitudes towards unionism.
On Karen Bradley I would have thought she would have known about the voting habits in N. Ireland based on just having an interest in politics. At least I like to assume politicians have some interest in politics, that might just be me being hopelessly optimistic again.
May's offering of the backstop was a dreadful decision and I doubt very much that she will be able to agree any text with Barnier that will not cause the DUP to oppose her.
As for unification, no idea. I would suggest any referendum should require a threshold of 60-65% to be successful (learning from Brexit).
Same podcast with a new, though appropriate, header?
Can anyone show me his full, detailed plan so I can peruse it? Because surely he's got a solid alternative plan rather than just: "Cripes, I'd like to be PM so I can shag my current, next and next-but-one mistress in No. 10!" ?
If they adopted an approach similar to the Danish People's Party then I couldn't see why they couldn't provide a measure of support to the Moderates, but they'd also have to be willing to accept it.
What is interesting about Boris is that he walked smack into Number 10's beefed-up spin operation. Taking that together with Theresa May using her African trip to learn human as well as dancing, and perhaps we should wonder if the PM is having second thoughts about stepping down after Brexit but before the election. It is worrying for those of us who have placed our bets as a longer delay gives more time for new contenders to emerge.
All you tend to get from leavers is some vague waffle about trade agreements, overlooking the fact of our reduced leverage outside the EU and that some of the world's most successful trading nations have become so within the EU.
Could have been worse.
"For long ages Scenarion and Glorfindel defended the realm against Morgoth..."
Sindarin Elvish?
/nerd
NI has always been different and has become more so over the years. When the SDLP sat with Labour and the Ulster Unionists sat with the Tories the fact that they had different political parties wasn't so obvious but with the virtual collapse of those two and the domination of the DUP and Sinn Fein their role in UK politics is normally much diminished. The Catholics are pretty much excluded altogether by the decisions of Sinn Fein not to sit in the Commons.
Add in the NI assembly by which they are making their own laws and the largely incomprehensible (to anyone in the UK outside west Scotland) obsession of division by religion and we have a country of which we know little and understand less. At the moment the DUP are playing an important role in the Commons and the Assembly is not sitting but when we return to more normal times it is not hard to see NI drifting away from a country it has limited amounts in common with.
"It may not happen overnight, but it is a realistic prospect in the medium term in a world where the Tories increasingly prioritise Brexit over the Union and Jeremy Corbyn edges closer to Number 10."
If politicians hold a vote and promise to enact the result, and then don't, that renders democracy rather pointless.
I never wanted Scotland to leave the UK, but the voters there opted for the SNP and had the right to a referendum, and to have the result respected. Freedom of self-determination, whether for the Scots staying in the UK or the UK leaving the EU, is a cornerstone of democratic society.
Edited extra bit: caught enough last night to see that the Moderates didn't appear to have topped the poll but thought I'd check for the detail. Quite remarkable that a BBC article on the Swedish election manages not to include party results (there are some voting bloc figures).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45466174
I went to school in Northern Ireland although it was quite a few years ago, has it really changed that much that the Protestant majority would meekly acquiesce in a united Ireland?
This is very quick work, given that the Secretaries of State only received them 5 days ago.
So even though the SDs were below expectations, they may end up doing well out of the election with an arrangement to the government.
See Winston Peters lol
Another bit of bullpoop from Vote Leave as anyone with half a brain cell knew this was inevitable as Leave’s promises were undeliverable.
In such a seat, much would depend for me on the views of the local candidates.
A no deal Brexit not only gets rid of Norn Iron it will deliver diamond hard austerity, particularly on the working classes who voted for Brexit, those buggers have been mollycoddled enough for too long, end working tax credits would be a start.
The Tories are going to have the mother of all three line whips on this vote, they’re confident they can get everyone who wants one a notionally held seat - even if they have to hand a few knighthoods and peerages out to encourage some retirements.
You seem confused. I support the right of a free people to choose, freely and fairly, their own destiny. Whether that accords with my own view or not is not relevant when it comes to respecting that choice (of course, I don't have to like it, but that's another kettle of fish).
You can pluck quotes if you like, and I could draw some from those who claimed Western Civilisation would fall and we'd have an immediate recession. Or we can deal with reality as it is, rather than false prophecies propounded during a terrible election campaign.
They just keep on stacking up.
But, if the inhabitants of NI decide that belonging to the EU is more important to them than the UK then I guess I’ll just have to accept that.
FWIW, I think the UK could survive Irish unification but not Scottish independence.
https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/1038682339780583425?s=21
That isn’t enough.
Not a problem I’d like to have as Taioseach.
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1038807797184352256
To be fair to them, they haven't bothered producing a plan in the two years since the vote, either.
To wind people up, I could also add illegal spending onto that.
Ultimately the biggest issue is the demographics shifts in NI society. NI is majority Catholic below the age of 35 and getting more so as you go down the age groups.
To date about a third of Catholics have been happy in the UK for a variety of reasons though primarily economic. That is now uncertain until Brexit settles down.
For nationalsists the economic success of the RoI is something they think will wipe Unionists objections away and theyll all vote with their pockects. To me this is just plain pie in the sky.
The RoI has first to shift the violent heritage if they are to get a hearing and currently thats not something they are addressing.
https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/this-was-a-victory-for-the-dup-and-will-be-worth-it-if-there-is-no-general-election-until-2022
they needed an outsider since the Garda have had major scandals on cover ups and corruption that they needed a clean break. Harris at least had the advantage of knowng how most the criminals in the South operate since they venture up north.
That’s why I support Chequers: it would leave our pan-continental supply chains largely undisturbed, whilst still allowing us to strike new trade deals with lower tariffs, and we will gain much more freedom to regulate services and digital, as well as additional controls on free movement.
It’s all about striking the right strategic balance for the UK between goods and services and I’ve always said I’m happy for us to go from half-in/half-out to half-out/half-in provided the balance is right.
In the longer term I’d expect we’d develop a form of associate membership for the common market in goods with official observer status and a measure of voting rights.
the Garda struggle to control the drug gangs of North Dublin
Boris' support for Brexit before the referendum can be seen as a big bonus for them (another example showing how ridiculous the claim that remain held 'every advantage' is), and not giving him a position would have caused major ructions amongst the Conservative leavers.
Jehovah, Jehovah, Jehovah.
Apart from the psychological boost of one bloc coming first, it doesn't, of course, change the choices of government. The Sweden Democrats (SD) are complaining that no other party has made any contact with them, and it's clear that everyone else is unwilling to work with them. The four choices seem to be:
1. Social Democrats (S) government with Greens and some small opposition parties. This would break open the blocs. S likes it, nobody else does, and there are moderately significsant policy differences on taxes and welfare.
2. Continuation of the current government as a minority. The Moderates said they would strongly oppose that throughout the campaign, and it might push the centre-right into talking with the SD. Possibly a change in S leader to give a new PM might work, but this doesn't seem to be under discussion.
3. M minority government. This would split the difference and might be more stable that it sounds - the Left and Greens are unlikely to vote on many issues with the SD. But here psychology matters - if M's bloc has fewest seats, it just looks wrong to form a government.
4. Coalition of S,M and smaller centre-right parties plus maybe Greens. Grand coalition a la Germany, difficult as the blocs have been very fixed in opposing each other - and it might be a gift to SD and Left.
New elections are unlikely - the basic arithmetic isn't going to change, and turnout at 86% means there isn't a pool of non-voters to change anything dramatically. Because policy differences aren't that huge, nobody is panicking, but it's acknowledged as a difficult puzzle.
In other, completely unrelated, news POTUS considers a state visit to Bedford .....
I have long suspected that the Brexit end game is a break-up of the UK. I am pretty sure a lot of Scottish Tories think that, too; which is why so many were opposed to Brexit.
Jezza coming to the stump in 2022 (or sooner) promising all kinds of bribes for NI to rejoin the RoI would certainly shake things up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018
Labour is no better than the conservatives
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1038720777137389568
And Steve Baker saying upto 80 conservative mps will take Chequers down and split the party while 12 colleagues have said they will resign from the party if Boris becomes leader ( and I would join them)
If Baker and ERG vote down TM's deal I will join the demand for a second referendum
Boris is a narcissist. Could it be he blamed his wife for talking him into supporting Brexit, and thus “ruining” his career? Nothing to do with him. Did she take umbrage at that and there were several flaming stand-up rows?
It wouldn’t surprise me. I trust May more than Boris on Brexit.
If he became leader, Redwood really would be back in the cabinet...
Has Number 10 blown its own foot off while knee-capping Boris over the weekend? In particular by leaking the May team's research on Boris from the last leadership election, which suggests Theresa May appointed a Foreign Secretary she knew would be a disastrous Foreign Secretary. The half-hearted defence being spun is that she did it to give him enough rope is nonsense. She got rid of George Osborne in short order.