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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

So, I started doing these videos a couple of months ago, and some of them have been very successful. And others are about the Italian economy.
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And you look a bit different, Robert.
Stringer is a bit more lefty than the other two, and has been pretty neutral about Corbyn's leadership (publicly at least), so I'd imagine that kept the revolt from the hardcore Corbynites down.
culinary selection for tonight? Talk about good time to bury bad news.....
Unless you’re a short seller.
Arghh!!!
UKIP are the BNP in blazers.
BNP is UKIP for pussies.
The Kremlin claimed the timestamps in these photographs had been overlaid as they showed the same time - 16:22:43 - but they were taken at two different gates
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/06/russia-accuses-britain-dirty-tricks-gatwick-images-showing-novichok/
Tin-foil hat time...
Meanwhile, Tories and LibDems slug it out over the centre ground. Except, the LibDems won't fight because they are mostly pacifists.
The theory that Mr Pence wrote the article largely stems from the use of the word "lodestar", a term meaning "star that leads or guides" and one which the vice-president has frequently used.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45436243
"How many millions shall we sacrifice, oh Lord?"
Add a light reflector to your equipment for videos in sunny gardens.
Lightboards seem to be in vogue for Youtube videos now, which allow speakers to write on a glass screen between them and the viewer (and tbh I'm not sure how it is done but suspect mirrors or software inversion must be involved).
One anecdote I had not heard before concerned the day after the referendum when the EU Parliament had an emergency debate on Brexit and Farage came into the chamber and was hugged by Junker (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-36648873/brexit-farage-and-juncker-s-close-encounter-in-brussels). According to Farage at least, what Junker was whispering to him in this photo was 'You Bastard'.
The article claims that there's already been talk at cabinet-member level of invoking the 25th. If Pence believed not only that Trump was unfit to serve but that his removal from office was an urgent requirement, he'd be ideally placed to canvass opinion among cabinet members as to whether they could trigger the process. Even if someone broke ranks and went to Trump, Trump cannot fire Pence. On the other hand, if talking were already at that level, then a clear lead from the VP that it needed to happen could well swing opinion.
The question then would be who would Congress back? Trump or Pence? If Pence were not sure of that question, that could provide incentive to write the article, undermine Trump and shift opinion, but not yet to initiate removal proceedings.
However, I don't believe it. Firstly, the timing is off. There's no good incentive to do it now, so close to the mid-terms. And secondly, whoever wrote that article is taking a massive personal risk because they may be outed as the author. Were it Pence, then if it became public that it were him, he'd lose all authority to *then* assent to enacting the 25th having not done so beforehand when he could have; he'd have to resign. So either he doesn't agree with the analysis, or if he does, he's better staying quiet until he's confident that any move against Trump will succeed.
As an aside, if Pence were forced to resign and Trump were then also forced out, then the Speaker of the House becomes President. Note that Paul Ryan is not contesting re-election in November.
Note also that the health clauses of the 25th amendment operate on the assumption that there *is* a vice-president; if Pence were forced to resign, Trump is under no compulsion to nominate a new VP, or to nominate someone acceptable to Congress.
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1037700264805859329
And let everyone's head explode: Democrat because it shoots their fox; Republican because she's not one of them; alt-right and Trump base, because she's really a Democrat. Oh, and Jeremy Corbyn's, just because.
Mr. JohnL, I agree entirely. I may have a tiny sum at daft odds on Ivanka succeeding Trump.
Perhaps due to entryism adding to the Tories' lunatic fringe, the description might apply a bit more widely than UKIP
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/nigel-farage-attacks-political-correctness-the-abc-and-left-in-sydney-speech/news-story/66f8ab029a7b83112ae4f638a2617c46#ampf=undefined
Obviously Farage does not have much formal role in UKIP any more.
This the meeting?
https://twitter.com/BillPounder/status/1037643076582367233/photo/2
"Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1037709593839919104
Edit - it was moved to a smaller venue:
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/nigel-farage-sydney-tour-date-cancelled-1-5683923
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1037630818431188995
The only thing I remember from History GCSE is to check the source for bias, you are like a case study!
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/9840-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-destined-for-fresh-2018-lows
Surely everyone on here is typing "I'm Spartacus!"?
"Reg, our glorious leader and founder of the P.F.J., will be coordinating consultant at the drain head, though he himself will not be taking part in any terrorist action, as he has a bad back."
Genius
ManEU candidate and they would have loved it.Of course I realise he is favourite or near-favourite now but he has a dramatically split party behind him with some MPs who viscerally dislike him.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1037720065934807041
There that wasn't hard.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45439388
Well, under the current government, anyway.
Camus was writing about people like Sartre who gloried in his Communist views and image as some sort of revered guru in the West while ignoring those like Havel and others who suffered the realities of Communist rule. The latter were furious at the deliberate ignorance and moral cowardice of people like Sartre who refused to speak up and gave a veneer of respectability to the barbarism of Communism.
But as to your point - the mass of tweets doesn't really tell us anything individually but if there is a trend then that is interesting and who's to say we won't hear more of this about Johnson in the days or weeks to come.
Depends where the mass of tweets come from, the source of the info often tells us more about the veracity of the story than anything else. This tweet looked interesting until I found out it was from someone at The New European, when it became noise.
It's the same with the rush to do down any poll that shows disagreement with ones opinion, the same people rarely scrutinise those that confirm their bias. There should be a quick & easy term for that!
In any event, the released documents sound as though the ought not to have been kept confidential - for example:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/06/kavanaugh-leaked-docs-roe-wade-809129
One of those confidential documents, obtained by POLITICO, shows Kavanaugh leaving the door open to the high court overturning Roe v. Wade. “I am not sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since [the] Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so,” President Donald Trump’s nominee wrote in 2003...
Why on earth should that not be made public in the context of Supreme Court nomination hearings ?
Existential phenomenologist therapist to client: Are you?
Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
Highly regrettably there are photographs of Priti Patel, JRM and BoJo.