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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Five Questions

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  • Mr. Verulamius, could but won't. It doesn't make, and doesn't appear to make, his path to Number Ten easier.

    Those on the sceptical side would disown Boris. And who else does he have? Someone motivated by Remain can easily vote for a Javid or a Hunt instead.

    And if Boris did, having switched to Remain, actually make the final two the membership would vote for anyone else over him.

    Boris is a moron. Campaigning for a strategic outcome for the nation which you don't believe in but think will advance your career is selfish idiocy of the first water. He failed utterly as Foreign Secretary, hiding in Afghanistan to avoid a Heathrow vote, then skipping Cobra to pose for a photo-op of his resignation.

    What's the advantage of a Boris premiership? The occasional witty one-liner. The downsides? A PM we know would put his own ambition ahead of the national interest, and who has proven incapable of competently holding a Cabinet position.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Obviously co-incidence but the header of the top of the page is an advertisment for the Conservatives. It says 'Blue Wave Launching soon, urges the 'chucking of Chequers' and goes on to advertise conservatives.com and leave.eu/get involved

    Highly regrettably there are photographs of Priti Patel, JRM and BoJo.

    This is nothing to do with the Conservatives, it’s Arron Banks and Leave.EU spending money trying to get as many Kippers as possible to join the Tories.
  • Joy of joys. More taxes for the self-employed. Great.
    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1037724887908057089
  • Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
    Camus. A towering figure of the 20th century. He would have thing or two to say about Le Pen.
    and those other great philosophers of the 20th Century; Palin, Jones, Chapman Idle, one of whom who wrote:

    "Reg, our glorious leader and founder of the P.F.J., will be coordinating consultant at the drain head, though he himself will not be taking part in any terrorist action, as he has a bad back."

    Genius
    And a prescient reference to the dear leader's love of manhole covers ?
    Excellent, I hadn't noticed that Nostradamus-esque detail. Thank you. Perhaps I should study the holy texts more for hidden prophesies
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    edited September 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Obviously co-incidence but the header of the top of the page is an advertisment for the Conservatives. It says 'Blue Wave Launching soon, urges the 'chucking of Chequers' and goes on to advertise conservatives.com and leave.eu/get involved

    Highly regrettably there are photographs of Priti Patel, JRM and BoJo.

    This is nothing to do with the Conservatives, it’s Arron Banks and Leave.EU spending money trying to get as many Kippers as possible to join the Tories.


    Well, if it helps to keep the site going ............
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
    Camus. A towering figure of the 20th century. He would have thing or two to say about Le Pen.
    I think he would have used a single word. (Existentialists are economical with words.)
    La Peste?
    Very good :)

    (Albeit technically two words.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301

    Nigelb said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
    Camus. A towering figure of the 20th century. He would have thing or two to say about Le Pen.
    and those other great philosophers of the 20th Century; Palin, Jones, Chapman Idle, one of whom who wrote:

    "Reg, our glorious leader and founder of the P.F.J., will be coordinating consultant at the drain head, though he himself will not be taking part in any terrorist action, as he has a bad back."

    Genius
    And a prescient reference to the dear leader's love of manhole covers ?
    Excellent, I hadn't noticed that Nostradamus-esque detail. Thank you. Perhaps I should study the holy texts more for hidden prophesies
    There is much truth to be found therein...
    :smile:
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    rcs1000 said:

    welshowl said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
    Camus. A towering figure of the 20th century. He would have thing or two to say about Le Pen.
    I think he would have used a single word. (Existentialists are economical with words.)
    La Peste?
    Very good :)

    (Albeit technically two words.)
    Ah yes but then the pedants would've beaten me for the lack of a definite article with a French noun.

    You can't win you know!
  • Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."

    It's not always true that it's someone else's blood, though. It may start that way, but in many cases it ends up being bloodshed which engulfs the revolutionaries themselves.
    Yep, for Trotsky.

    Lenin and Stalin died natural deaths.
  • TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."
    Camus. A towering figure of the 20th century. He would have thing or two to say about Le Pen.
    I think he would have used a single word. (Existentialists are economical with words.)
    CBT therapist to client: How are you?
    Existential phenomenologist therapist to client: Are you?
    lol
  • Mr. Owl, of course you cannot win, if you use the language of defeat :p
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Any one who imagined that the EU would be all peace and harmony once we left must be looking at the Polish and Italians and wondering what we've unleashed upon them.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brexit-eib-poland/poland-threatens-to-block-post-brexit-capital-increase-for-eib-ft-idUSKCN1LM0ZR
    The FT article expands on the way the voting blocs become distorted by our departure.

    The Italians are of course threatening to block the EU budget and these "everyone for himself" stories are beginning to become a daily occurrence.

    The EU was always going to become more difficult to manage once the UK decided to Leave, with its sizeable net contributions. The less sweeties there are to share out, the more EU members will ask themselves "Is it worth it now? Being governed by WilliamGlenn?"....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Nigelb said:

    It's all happening in the Senate. Booker could be kicked out over this. One-upping Harris, coincidentally.
    https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1037700264805859329

    Is that a permanent kicking out?
    That's how I've read it on Twitter, though not seen anything definitive.
    I presume you mean kicking out of the Kavanaugh hearing, rather than the Senate ?

    In any event, the released documents sound as though the ought not to have been kept confidential - for example:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/06/kavanaugh-leaked-docs-roe-wade-809129
    One of those confidential documents, obtained by POLITICO, shows Kavanaugh leaving the door open to the high court overturning Roe v. Wade. “I am not sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since [the] Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so,” President Donald Trump’s nominee wrote in 2003...

    Why on earth should that not be made public in the context of Supreme Court nomination hearings ?
    Ah, this is what it is about:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/kavanaugh-hearing-trumps-supreme-court-nominee-faces-second-day-of-questioning/2018/09/06/3529677a-b147-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html
    Senate Democrats on the committee appeared in open revolt as Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) read aloud from the rules on expulsion. Raj Shah, a White House spokesman, also tweeted the rules on Thursday morning.

    Cornyn read aloud from rules stating that a senator who discloses “the secret or confidential business” of the Senate could be “liable ... to suffer expulsion.”...


    Given expulsion from the Senate requires a two thirds majority, I think the right wing blowhard can safely be ignored.
  • He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    It would be highly amusing, but currently weathervanes in the Tory party only move in one direction (eh, Carlotta?)
  • Pulpstar said:

    matt said:


    I don’t understand why opinion writers who consistently fail to surprise continue to be employed. Is there a class of reader who likes reading the same reheated opinion time and time again? I assume so, but looking at circulation, it doesn’t seem to be a market that people will pay for.

    Dan Hodges has cornered this market.
    *looks for a new opening*
  • The EU was always going to become more difficult to manage once the UK decided to Leave, with its sizeable net contributions. The less sweeties there are to share out, the more EU members will ask themselves "Is it worth it now? Being governed by WilliamGlenn?"....

    My term ends next year... ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited September 2018
    Don't know if this is genuinely from Nike or a wonderful wind up:

    https://i.imgur.com/iVXcJxp.jpg
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited September 2018
    Completely off topic.

    The other day I was in Manchester and passed a building on Whitworth Street with the magnificent name of Lomnitz and Duxbury over the door.

    What history - and individual stories - there must be in such a name!

    Eastern European (Jewish?) migration, cotton mills, the influence of India - the firm got a patent for the invention of "improvements in ornamenting certain woven fabrics known by the name of "dhooties" and in apparatus to be used therein." - and much else besides, I imagine. And the name Duxbury was used by Keith Waterhouse in Billy Liar for the old-fashioned councillor whose accent Billy and friends mocked.

    I love the way some small detail like this can give you a glimpse of the past, its riches and the human stories it contains.

    (Edited: And I am also quietly pleased that this - and not some political comment - was the subject of my 10,800th post on here.)
  • Mr. Verulamius, could but won't. It doesn't make, and doesn't appear to make, his path to Number Ten easier.

    Those on the sceptical side would disown Boris. And who else does he have? Someone motivated by Remain can easily vote for a Javid or a Hunt instead.

    And if Boris did, having switched to Remain, actually make the final two the membership would vote for anyone else over him.

    Boris is a moron. Campaigning for a strategic outcome for the nation which you don't believe in but think will advance your career is selfish idiocy of the first water. He failed utterly as Foreign Secretary, hiding in Afghanistan to avoid a Heathrow vote, then skipping Cobra to pose for a photo-op of his resignation.

    What's the advantage of a Boris premiership? The occasional witty one-liner. The downsides? A PM we know would put his own ambition ahead of the national interest, and who has proven incapable of competently holding a Cabinet position.

    Hear hear. I think Boris's reaction to becoming PM would be similar to him on discovering Leave had won. He is someone who is impatient with the necessity of foreplay only to be disappointed or surprised with his eventual ejaculation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    It's all happening in the Senate. Booker could be kicked out over this. One-upping Harris, coincidentally.
    https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1037700264805859329

    Is that a permanent kicking out?
    That's how I've read it on Twitter, though not seen anything definitive.
    I presume you mean kicking out of the Kavanaugh hearing, rather than the Senate ?

    In any event, the released documents sound as though the ought not to have been kept confidential - for example:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/06/kavanaugh-leaked-docs-roe-wade-809129
    One of those confidential documents, obtained by POLITICO, shows Kavanaugh leaving the door open to the high court overturning Roe v. Wade. “I am not sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since [the] Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so,” President Donald Trump’s nominee wrote in 2003...

    Why on earth should that not be made public in the context of Supreme Court nomination hearings ?
    Ah, this is what it is about:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/kavanaugh-hearing-trumps-supreme-court-nominee-faces-second-day-of-questioning/2018/09/06/3529677a-b147-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html
    Senate Democrats on the committee appeared in open revolt as Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) read aloud from the rules on expulsion. Raj Shah, a White House spokesman, also tweeted the rules on Thursday morning.

    Cornyn read aloud from rules stating that a senator who discloses “the secret or confidential business” of the Senate could be “liable ... to suffer expulsion.”...


    Given expulsion from the Senate requires a two thirds majority, I think the right wing blowhard can safely be ignored.
    The Democrat plan is probably to get the Senate away from the confirmation hearing and onto anything else, even if it’s the impeachment of one of their own. They’re going to try and run the clock down to the elections without Kavanaugh being confirmed, much as the Republicans did with Obama’s pick a couple of years ago (but without the numerical advantage the GOP had in 2016).
  • The EU was always going to become more difficult to manage once the UK decided to Leave, with its sizeable net contributions. The less sweeties there are to share out, the more EU members will ask themselves "Is it worth it now? Being governed by WilliamGlenn?"....

    My term ends next year... ;)
    I'll be taking over...hehehehe
  • Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."

    It's not always true that it's someone else's blood, though. It may start that way, but in many cases it ends up being bloodshed which engulfs the revolutionaries themselves.
    Yep, for Trotsky.

    Lenin and Stalin died natural deaths.
    I believe that Lenin was never the same again after being wounded in a failed assasination attempt in 1918. Contributed to his early death.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic.

    The other day I was in Manchester and passed a building on Whitworth Street with the magnificent name of Lomnitz and Duxbury over the door.

    What history - and individual stories - there must be in such a name!

    Eastern European (Jewish?) migration, cotton mills, the influence of India - the firm got a patent for the invention of "improvements in ornamenting certain woven fabrics known by the name of "dhooties" and in apparatus to be used therein." - and much else besides, I imagine. And the name Duxbury was used by Keith Waterhouse in Billy Liar for the old-fashioned councillor whose accent Billy and friends mocked.

    I love the way some small detail like this can give you a glimpse of the past, its riches and the human stories it contains.

    Very true.

    But there's an awful lot of history in 'Whitworth' as well:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Whitworth

    He's one of my heroes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic.

    The other day I was in Manchester and passed a building on Whitworth Street with the magnificent name of Lomnitz and Duxbury over the door.

    What history - and individual stories - there must be in such a name!

    Eastern European (Jewish?) migration, cotton mills, the influence of India - the firm got a patent for the invention of "improvements in ornamenting certain woven fabrics known by the name of "dhooties" and in apparatus to be used therein." - and much else besides, I imagine. And the name Duxbury was used by Keith Waterhouse in Billy Liar for the old-fashioned councillor whose accent Billy and friends mocked.

    I love the way some small detail like this can give you a glimpse of the past, its riches and the human stories it contains.

    (Edited: And I am also quietly pleased that this - and not some political comment - was the subject of my 10,800th post on here.)

    Google is your friend, and comes up with (inter alia):

    http://www.rootschat.com/forum/index.php?topic=754193.0

    I particularly liked the patent!
  • Cyclefree said:

    Time to bring out this quote from Albert Camus, who had the measure of Corbynistas.

    "Mistaken ideas always end in bloodshed but in every case it is someone else's blood . That is why some of our thinkers feel free to say just about anything."

    It's not always true that it's someone else's blood, though. It may start that way, but in many cases it ends up being bloodshed which engulfs the revolutionaries themselves.
    Yep, for Trotsky.

    Lenin and Stalin died natural deaths.
    I believe that Lenin was never the same again after being wounded in a failed assasination attempt in 1918. Contributed to his early death.
    Stalin's death wasn't that great apparently.
    "There are conflicting reports of what happened, but after a routine night of heavy drinking until the early hours of March 1st, the guards became alarmed when there was no sound from their master all day and late in the evening a guard or a maid ventured in and found him lying on the floor of his bedroom. One account says he was conscious, but only able to make incoherent noises, and had wet himself. Nikita Khrushchev recalled that he and Malenkov, Beria and Bulganin went out to Kuntsevo after a telephone call from the guards to Malenkov. At the dacha they were told that Stalin had been put on a sofa in the small dining room ‘in an unpresentable state’ and was now asleep. The four men, embarrassed and not realising that anything was seriously wrong, went back to Moscow.

    Not until the next day, with Stalin paralysed and speechless, were doctors summoned. Almost too frightened to touch him, they announced that he had suffered a massive stroke. "
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,301
    Sandpit said:


    The Democrat plan is probably to get the Senate away from the confirmation hearing and onto anything else, even if it’s the impeachment of one of their own. They’re going to try and run the clock down to the elections without Kavanaugh being confirmed, much as the Republicans did with Obama’s pick a couple of years ago (but without the numerical advantage the GOP had in 2016).

    it's possible, but that all seems rather complicated and a bit far-fetched. Of course they'd rather not see Kavanaugh confirmed, but I seriously doubt that is a realistic procedural route to preventing it.

    More likely is a certain degree of genuine outrage at the document issue, which is a real concern, as outlined by another former designated archives representative:
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/the-brett-kavanaugh-document-cover-up-is-a-stain-on-the-senate.html?
    The third category is a major point of contention in the Judge Kavanaugh confirmation fight. That language informs the astute reader that Judge Kavanaugh’s time as White House staff secretary has been excluded. That is an incredibly important and senior West Wing job, and Judge Kavanaugh has described his years as White House staff secretary as the “most interesting and in many ways among the most instructive” to his experience as a judge. On one hand, I am not persuaded that the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh—as crucial as it is—would entitle the Senate free range over every document President Bush’s staff secretary handled. On the other hand, those staff secretary documents are sure to contain information core to the Senate’s constitutional interests in his qualifications for the Supreme Court. Here, that exception to this document production threatens to swallow the broader document-disclosure enterprise.

    The fourth category is executive privilege. According to Burck, the White House made the final privilege calls: “The White House, after consultation with the Department of Justice, has directed that we not provide these documents.” The documents withheld on privilege grounds contains upward of 100,000 pages of material. That is a large number.

    It is also contrary to very recent precedent: President Obama overcame any executive-privilege concerns with respect to documents related to Elena Kagan’s service in White House Counsel’s Office under President Bill Clinton and as solicitor general under President Obama. Executive branch confidentiality interests dissipate over time. They were certainly more acute in the Kagan context—documents involving the sitting president’s solicitor general—than those of Judge Kavanaugh’s service over a decade ago.

  • Rings true and fits with other statements he's made.
  • In that Blue Wave advert Sajid Javid reminds me of the David Steele puppet from the old Spitting Image days. "Oh Boris I feel the surge"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    "With a Left-wing insurgency, the Democrats are following Corbyn down the path of self-destruction
    Tom Harris"
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/06/left-wing-insurgency-democrats-following-corbyn-path-self-destruction/
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Pulpstar said:
    I wonder how the Brexiters are going to try and spin this bit of news? Where is "Alanbrooke" (aka Comical Ali) when you need him for entertainment?
    It is a forecast not news. There was talk of much bigger sterling slides after 2016 which did not happen. Forecasting currency changes is very difficult.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    I hadn't heard of this. One of those blindingly bloody obvious ideas you wish you'd thought of.
    https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/06/news/companies/carlsberg-snap-pack-plastic/index.html
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Joy of joys. More taxes for the self-employed. Great.
    https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1037724887908057089

    If you're not careful you'll end up paying the same rates as the employed - you poor dears!

    Though technincally, is this rather a case of 'no tax cut' rather than a 'tax rise'?

    "Chancellor announced he was scrapping the Government’s pledge to abolish Class 2 National Insurance contributions"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    On cryptocurrencies I still think that their very volatility, which has worked out well for some on Bitcoin, including my daughter, is what destroys their utility.

    If they are to be used as a means of exchange they need to be stable. Currencies that are completely unstable are useless as the sad people of Venezuela learned when they starting using eggs instead. As with a lot of markets the gambling/speculative aspect has completely overwhelmed the trading/using as a means of exchange aspect. Unless and until a crypto currency obtains sufficient critical mass to avoid this effect the Economist is right and they are largely useless except to those wanting to take a punt.

    It follows from this that Robert is right that we will probably end up with a maximum of 3 (and that may prove 2 too many) that get to that size and stability. Whether the winners can find a way to stabilise value will determine whether this is of any use to anyone other than drug dealers and terrorists excluded from the conventional banking system.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    Assume he means article in the Telegraph declaring he was plumping for leave.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,892
    Pulpstar said:
    I think this very much depends on what happens next on the exciting Brexit ride that our government is taking us all on. Like all the best scary rides they are keeping future developments secret and doing their very best to strip all credibility from such statements as they do make to maximise those unexpected stomach lurches. Think of those horrific roller coasters that work in the dark as a model.

    We saw the other day that a very weak rumour of a more conciliatory position being taken on an aspect of Brexit gave rise to an immediate 1% rise in Sterling. I think if we get a non disruptive deal confirmed Sterling could easily appreciate 10%, possibly more, very rapidly.

    Given our trade deficit that would not be a good thing but it seems to me that the risks of Brexit are very oversold at the moment and removal of the uncertainty would have a major impact. No deal would of course be a very different proposition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    This Blue Wave term is going to get confusing, Democrat surge in mid-terms or UKIP Tory party insurgency?
  • What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    I assume it’s a reference to his Telegraph column when he came out in support of Brexit. It later emerged he’d also written an alternative column in which he backed Remain before making his final decision.
  • What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    I think they are referring to the famous “two versions” of his Telegraph article, one backing Leave, the other Remain.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Mortimer said:

    What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    Assume he means article in the Telegraph declaring he was plumping for leave.
    Ah right - as covered in All Out War. Thanks, makes sense.
  • F1: still no official word on Raikkonen/Leclerc. Bit surprised.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291

    What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    I assume it’s a reference to his Telegraph column when he came out in support of Brexit. It later emerged he’d also written an alternative column in which he backed Remain before making his final decision.
    So, it was one letter on one day that blew it? And the years of making up bendy banana stories can be forgotten? Poor wee lamb.
  • Mr. Pointer, almost as if the absence of sick pay and leave mean that a lower NI rate for the self-employed makes sense.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    "Labour moderates long for a Tory victory
    Philip Collins
    Spineless MPs are secretly hoping Mrs May’s successor will be a One Nation Conservative who can destroy Corbyn"
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/labour-moderates-long-for-a-tory-victory-gvnskkfss
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I think this very much depends on what happens next on the exciting Brexit ride that our government is taking us all on. Like all the best scary rides they are keeping future developments secret and doing their very best to strip all credibility from such statements as they do make to maximise those unexpected stomach lurches. Think of those horrific roller coasters that work in the dark as a model.

    We saw the other day that a very weak rumour of a more conciliatory position being taken on an aspect of Brexit gave rise to an immediate 1% rise in Sterling. I think if we get a non disruptive deal confirmed Sterling could easily appreciate 10%, possibly more, very rapidly.

    Given our trade deficit that would not be a good thing but it seems to me that the risks of Brexit are very oversold at the moment and removal of the uncertainty would have a major impact. No deal would of course be a very different proposition.
    More likely to be Transition Agreement only coming to the Commons, with a "lick and a promise" FTA to smooth its passage, but not a binding FTA as there is not enough time for that level of detail.

    I think that we are due some major market volatility even without Brexit. There is a lot of trade and financial instability about.
  • Russian Ambassador at the UN doing a great impression of 'comical ali'
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    This Blue Wave term is going to get confusing, Democrat surge in mid-terms or UKIP Tory party insurgency?

    Think of the latter as Blue Rinse and you’ll soon get the difference lodged.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Mr. Pointer, almost as if the absence of sick pay and leave mean that a lower NI rate for the self-employed makes sense.

    Pah! The (legal) tax-avoidance scams measures the self-employed are able to benefit from vastly outweighed any likely benefit from sick pay, as any fule kno.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,291
    edited September 2018

    Any one who imagined that the EU would be all peace and harmony once we left must be looking at the Polish and Italians and wondering what we've unleashed upon them.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brexit-eib-poland/poland-threatens-to-block-post-brexit-capital-increase-for-eib-ft-idUSKCN1LM0ZR
    The FT article expands on the way the voting blocs become distorted by our departure.

    The Italians are of course threatening to block the EU budget and these "everyone for himself" stories are beginning to become a daily occurrence.

    The EU was always going to become more difficult to manage once the UK decided to Leave, with its sizeable net contributions. The less sweeties there are to share out, the more EU members will ask themselves "Is it worth it now? Being governed by WilliamGlenn?"....
    This is of practical importance. I'm not sure the current, but the Italians had got underway with vetoing CETA.

    If we do get to No Deal, A50 extension to get a few more ducks in a row is even more of a marquee hostage now than it ever was before. Expect a 29/3 exit, ready or not, and 6 months of pure crisis management.

    Even if the government were to survive this intact, they would all be utterly knackered by late 2019.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    welshowl said:

    This Blue Wave term is going to get confusing, Democrat surge in mid-terms or UKIP Tory party insurgency?

    Think of the latter as Blue Rinse and you’ll soon get the difference lodged.
    :lol:
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Mr. Owl, of course you cannot win, if you use the language of defeat :p

    Lol
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This sounds like a bit of an exaggeration:

    "Opinion
    How the Far Right Conquered Sweden
    A bastion of social democracy, the country refused to deal with the realities of mass immigration.
    By Jochen Bittner
    Mr. Bittner is a political editor of the weekly newspaper Die Zeit."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/opinion/how-the-far-right-conquered-sweden.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited September 2018
    Nice cat Robert.

    On Sweden, I've only just spotted that the Christian Democrats have gone up in the polls which is interesting. I wonder if they've been taking support from the Sweden Democrats of it's a more complicated churn via other parties.

    EDIT: PJW's guest in this video is probably betting against @AlastairMeeks!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K8C21GJUUs
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    The latest Swedish poll suggests a phot finish between the Red-Green bloc of three parties and the centre-right bloc of four parties. Both have about 38% with the Swedish Democrats on 19% and others on 4%.

    https://skop.se/main/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SKOPs-Valjarbarometer-5-september-2018.pdf
  • David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21
  • David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    He has lost it and me
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    Just confirms that EVERYBODY but May is singing from the same hymn sheet: Chequers is dead.
  • David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    Who is to say he wasn't trying, but was overruled by May and Robbins?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,159
    edited September 2018

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    Just confirms that EVERYBODY but May is singing from the same hymn sheet: Chequers is dead.
    I do not know whether Chequers is dead or not but David Davis appearing with Farage means I now support a second referendum. Farage is a step too far
  • David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    He had two years
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited September 2018
    22% is the lowest rating the Social Democrats have received in any poll AFAIK:


    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    6h6 hours ago
    Sweden, Skop poll:
    S-S&D: 22%
    SD-ECR: 19% (-1)
    M-EPP: 18% (+1)
    V-LEFT: 11%
    C-ALDE: 8%
    KD-EPP: 7%
    L-ALDE: 6% (+1)
    MP-G/EFA: 6%
    Sample size: 2,651
    Field work: 29/08/18 – 05/09/18
    Election date: 09/09/18"
  • RobD said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    Who is to say he wasn't trying, but was overruled by May and Robbins?
    Come off it. He like the rest of those deadbeat Brexiteers was clueless - and unable to come up with one practical proposal for how it might be delivered.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    Just confirms that EVERYBODY but May is singing from the same hymn sheet: Chequers is dead.
    I do not know whether Chequers is dead or not but David Davis appearing with Farage means I now support a second referendum. Farage is a step too far
    A surprising number of those at the #peoplesvote march in June were Tories according to my brother.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    RobD said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    Who is to say he wasn't trying, but was overruled by May and Robbins?
    Sounds like this is exactly what happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    RobD said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    Who is to say he wasn't trying, but was overruled by May and Robbins?
    The diaries covering the past couple of years could make great reading.

    Or maybe they will be in the remainders bin in a week, as everybody will just want to put it all behind them and in a dark patch of earth marked "Don't go there!"
  • Foxy said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    Just confirms that EVERYBODY but May is singing from the same hymn sheet: Chequers is dead.
    I do not know whether Chequers is dead or not but David Davis appearing with Farage means I now support a second referendum. Farage is a step too far
    A surprising number of those at the #peoplesvote march in June were Tories according to my brother.
    You know, peoples vote angers me, call it a second referendum, be honest and then it will have my support
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    Foxy said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    Just confirms that EVERYBODY but May is singing from the same hymn sheet: Chequers is dead.
    I do not know whether Chequers is dead or not but David Davis appearing with Farage means I now support a second referendum. Farage is a step too far
    A surprising number of those at the #peoplesvote march in June were Tories according to my brother.
    Four Tories spotted in central London might surprise some folk....

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,910
    AndyJS said:

    22% is the lowest rating the Social Democrats have received in any poll AFAIK:


    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    6h6 hours ago
    Sweden, Skop poll:
    S-S&D: 22%
    SD-ECR: 19% (-1)
    M-EPP: 18% (+1)
    V-LEFT: 11%
    C-ALDE: 8%
    KD-EPP: 7%
    L-ALDE: 6% (+1)
    MP-G/EFA: 6%
    Sample size: 2,651
    Field work: 29/08/18 – 05/09/18
    Election date: 09/09/18"

    Ancient news. I posted the figures earlier:

    https://skop.se/main/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SKOPs-Valjarbarometer-5-september-2018.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    stodge said:

    AndyJS said:

    22% is the lowest rating the Social Democrats have received in any poll AFAIK:


    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    6h6 hours ago
    Sweden, Skop poll:
    S-S&D: 22%
    SD-ECR: 19% (-1)
    M-EPP: 18% (+1)
    V-LEFT: 11%
    C-ALDE: 8%
    KD-EPP: 7%
    L-ALDE: 6% (+1)
    MP-G/EFA: 6%
    Sample size: 2,651
    Field work: 29/08/18 – 05/09/18
    Election date: 09/09/18"

    Ancient news. I posted the figures earlier:

    https://skop.se/main/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SKOPs-Valjarbarometer-5-september-2018.pdf
    It isn't a race.
  • RobD said:

    David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    What a pity he was never in Government, where he might have been able to have done something to ensure that 'Brexit is delivered and democracy upheld'.
    Who is to say he wasn't trying, but was overruled by May and Robbins?
    David Davis lived in a fantasy world prior to the referendum, being Brexit Secretary brought him a dose of reality.

    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/695208361625796608
    https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

    https://twitter.com/andyrome64/status/898306913611300866

    He's also thick as mince, he thought the Republic of Ireland was part of the UK.

    https://www.joe.ie/news/uks-brexit-minister-david-davis-seems-to-think-ireland-is-part-of-the-uk-553507
  • On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Only just catching up on the USA supreme court nomination process. Kavanaugh was asked a suuuuuuper specific question which made him look punch drunk before he proceed to go "I do not recall" in response.

    https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/1037548131825659910?s=19
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    edited September 2018
    Having only a little knowledge of it, I did a little reading today about the time around when Israel was created.

    Have I been reliably informed that the grand mufti of Palestine in 1948 was a Nazi collaborating, holocaust advocating associate of Hitler and Mussolini, and that he was the man the nascent Israeli state had to try to negotiate with?

    Or is it a Zionist smear?
  • Alistair said:

    Only just catching up on the USA supreme court nomination process. Kavanaugh was asked a suuuuuuper specific question which made him look punch drunk before he proceed to go "I do not recall" in response.

    https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/1037548131825659910?s=19

    When I first saw that clip I assumed it was just a joke with different scenes spliced together.
  • I managed one half slice of pineapple and anchovy pizza.

    Anymore and I would have barfed.
  • He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    No-one should trust Boris.

    No-one.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Alistair said:

    Only just catching up on the USA supreme court nomination process. Kavanaugh was asked a suuuuuuper specific question which made him look punch drunk before he proceed to go "I do not recall" in response.

    https://twitter.com/AdamWeinstein/status/1037548131825659910?s=19

    When I first saw that clip I assumed it was just a joke with different scenes spliced together.
    It was an unanswerable question using lawyerly tricks to try to trap somebody into potentially unwitting perjury or just look shifty.
  • He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    No-one should trust Boris.

    No-one.
    Sir Alan Duncan nailed it when it came to Boris.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    Need to ask us well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    No-one should trust Boris.

    No-one.
    Sir Alan Duncan nailed it when it came to Boris.
    Alan Duncan nailed Boris?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    The border across the Irish Sea has always (from an economic perspective) been far more important to the Republic than the border with the North. It's why all the "proposals" based on Northern Ireland in the Customs Union with the rest of the UK outside were always silly. Making the NI border a key issue in the talks was a high risk gamble that the Republic may come to regret.
  • He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    No-one should trust Boris.

    No-one.
    Sir Alan Duncan nailed it when it came to Boris.
    Alan Duncan nailed Boris?
    Not that I am aware.
  • On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    This has been obvious for quite some time.

    Eire needs a soft Brexit for that reason. The NI backstop is noise.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    I managed one half slice of pineapple and anchovy pizza.

    Anymore and I would have barfed.

    Just had an excellent plate of spare ribs and chips.With a side salad. The ribs were cooked to perfection.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    He could say he has changed his mind, it is all more difficult than he thought, and start campaigning for a people's vote on the outcome of the UK/EU negotiations?

    Not sure that would cut the mustard though.
    No-one should trust Boris.

    No-one.
    Sir Alan Duncan nailed it when it came to Boris.
    Alan Duncan nailed Boris?
    Not that I am aware.
    That would have been a Brian Blessed moment.....
  • On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    Need to ask us well.
    Why - you are not seriously suggesting we could say no. It will be in the deal
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    Having only a little knowledge of it, I did a little reading today about the time around when Israel was created.

    Have I been reliably informed that the grand mufti of Palestine in 1948 was a Nazi collaborating, holocaust advocating associate of Hitler and Mussolini, and that he was the man the nascent Israeli state had to try to negotiate with?

    Or is it a Zionist smear?

    Ask Ken Livingstone. He'll know. For sure.
  • David Davis is going to appear on a platform with Nigel Farage the week before the Tory party conference.
    https://twitter.com/leavemnsleave/status/1037674132543090688?s=21

    He has lost it and me
    He is a lazy showboater. I am not sure whether TMay was clever in letting the idiot hang himself or whether she was stupid in letting a man who is renowned in the Tory party for being lazy carry out one of the most important negotiations of our time
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628
    That learning curve is so steep she must have needed crampons....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    She has gone up in my estimation for being honest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    But why would Britain want hundreds of Irish lorries that contribute nothing except pollution, congestion and road wear? Especially so if the French are determined to turn the M20 into a lorry park.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    She has gone up in my estimation for being honest.
    While there are issues about the bleedin' obvious, Norn politics can be a little tortuous.
  • Sandpit said:

    On Brexit looks like Ireland is seeking an agreement with the EU to keep the UK as a land bridge using Calais-Dover-Holyhead. Assume realising a sea route to Rotterdam is not practical.

    It is the first sensible suggestion I have heard from Ireland. You should see the number of Irish HGV's rolling down the A55 through Colwyn Bay daily

    But why would Britain want hundreds of Irish lorries that contribute nothing except pollution, congestion and road wear? Especially so if the French are determined to turn the M20 into a lorry park.
    Lifeblood of Holyhead and the Island economy.

    Hope Wales is not seen as collateral as well as Airbus
  • eekeek Posts: 28,412

    What's "the other letter"? Indeed, what's the implied original letter?

    Didn't Boris have 2 articles for the Telegraph one pro Euro, the other Brexit....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Having only a little knowledge of it, I did a little reading today about the time around when Israel was created.

    Have I been reliably informed that the grand mufti of Palestine in 1948 was a Nazi collaborating, holocaust advocating associate of Hitler and Mussolini, and that he was the man the nascent Israeli state had to try to negotiate with?

    Or is it a Zionist smear?

    Ask Ken Livingstone. He'll know. For sure.
    Appointed by the British.
This discussion has been closed.