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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186
    viewcode said:

    Have a think about who is a net importer and who is a next exporter. Think what happened in the 30's when trade barriers were erected.
    I was in work til 9:30 and I'm in a train surrounded by noisy drunks. My capacity for cogent thought is diminished.



    Ugh, on a Friday. Commiserations.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Mortimer said:

    So, given Corbz hasn't demonstrated any capacity for changing his opinions since the 80s, what hope do you think his Labour party has of winning?
    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,085

    Ireland didn't have net emigration in the late 20th century.
    Not sure what figures you are basing that on. In the 1950's ROI lost 15% of its population to migration, and net migration remained the rule for most of the rest of the century, with only a few years where this was not the case. There was a big outflow in the eighties too. The shift to inward migration came in 1995, and much of that was Irish diaspora returning home to a booming economy, at least until the GFC.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCM-Emigration-Ireland-FINAL.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjmkriznZjdAhUUVsAKHb98AYwQFjAPegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw1ukDLy0orvICisWML7wPzM

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    I was in work til 9:30 and I'm in a train surrounded by noisy drunks. My capacity for cogent thought is diminished.

    [edit: unfuck blockquote]

    I wish you a nice stress free weekend.
  • Another day of intense political discourse and still a polarised Brexit debate.

    So time to put the tablet down, lean over and give my good lady a hug, and drift of until the morn.

    May I wish everyone a pleasant nights rest

    Good night folks

    There will be plenty more of the same arguments next week, next month, next year ;-)
  • AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    I thought the tunnels are complete at least, the wires are in place in the approaches to the tunnels at Paddington, Stratford and Abbey Wood.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited August 2018

    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Exactly. What bollocks the naming of “people’s vote” is.

    Who voted last time? Giraffes?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited August 2018

    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983, both elections such big landslide wins of well over 100 seat majorities they swept all age groups across the board
  • Foxy said:

    It resolves the question of whether Remainers outnumber Leavers.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,085
    welshowl said:

    Exactly. What bollocks the naming of “people’s vote” is.

    Who voted last time? Giraffes?
    People, and people can vote again :)
  • AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    Are you surprised ?

    Though there have been a few tv programs about CrossRail which suggested things were going well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195

    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Wrong sort of people won.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    The simple fact on demographics is that the more exposed to the EU you have been in your life the more anti EU you are. From the polls I believe the cut off was a few years under 40. It does not matter that the OAP's are dying off because the Eurosceptic base is constantly being refilled as more people experience the EU through life.
    Or why have all those enthusiastic EEC voters in 1973 when they were young now voted out.

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983
    I am not stating that all the things that led remain voters to vote remain will exist for the entirety of their lives, these young (18-24) remain voters will have their views evolve over time.

    What I am doing is completely dismissing this idea that the 18-24 year olds inevitably end up with the same views of older people now as they get older. It is not exactly what you were stating (although it is in the ballpark) but the theme is popular among a few people on here.

    Previous 18-24 year old Labour voters did not become the pensioner Tory voters that were around when they were younger, they became Tory pensioners with a different set of views. To compare the views of Tory pensioners on homosexuality in 1983 compared to Tory pensioners today would see a big contrast I'm sure. This isn't to say there might have been some drift in the current Tory pensioners views as they aged but they certainly didn't adopt the views of the older generation wholesale, many of the views they had when they were younger which were a rejection of older people's views (less negative towards homosexuality being an obvious one) are things they hung onto and as a result the inevitable churn of demography did change Britain as a country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,085
    PClipp said:

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
    People use referendums to kick the government of the day, and this time there is a government of Leavers. The temptation to kick them up the arse is irresistable.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    PClipp said:

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
    I disagree with the term "singularly." Cameron and Osborne got a hospital pass from BSIE. The board Mandelson, Sainsbury, Green and Alexander, plus Straw and Coetzee had messed it up so much, that Cammo and Osbo had no chance of saving the dire situation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    I am not stating that all the things that led remain voters to vote remain will exist for the entirety of their lives, these young (18-24) remain voters will have their views evolve over time.

    What I am doing is completely dismissing this idea that the 18-24 year olds inevitably end up with the same views of older people now as they get older. It is not exactly what you were stating (although it is in the ballpark) but the theme is popular among a few people on here.

    Previous 18-24 year old Labour voters did not become the pensioner Tory voters that were around when they were younger, they became Tory pensioners with a different set of views. To compare the views of Tory pensioners on homosexuality in 1983 compared to Tory pensioners today would see a big contrast I'm sure. This isn't to say there might have been some drift in the current Tory pensioners views as they aged but they certainly didn't adopt the views of the older generation wholesale, many of the views they had when they were younger which were a rejection of older people's views (less negative towards homosexuality being an obvious one) are things they hung onto and as a result the inevitable churn of demography did change Britain as a country.
    Even now the group least supportive of gay marriage is pensioners
  • Foxy said:

    People, and people can vote again :)
    Perhaps we should start with referenda on the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon.

    And if any of those are opposed reverse the EU back to what it was beforehand.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:

    Even now the group least supportive of gay marriage is pensioners
    And I imagine the trend has been relentlessly more in favour of gay marriage as demographics shift the people in the group to those born more recently and away from those in the more distant past.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,850
    Mortimer said:

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    Re HS2, being delivered on time pales into insignificance compared to the risk of not being delivered on budget. Now that the tetchy matter of parliamentary approval is out of the way, it's already breached the £100bn barrier.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    Will it? There are plenty of Australian, South African even English wines now to choose from, Japanese cars etc
    If there's no deal, I will actively seek out alternatives to European goods, natch.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    FF43 said:

    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Staying in the single market for goods as May has proposed effectively resolves the NI border issue
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    John_M said:

    If there's no deal, I will actively seek out alternatives to European goods, natch.
    Many will do the same
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,695
    HYUFD said:

    Staying in the single market for goods as May has proposed effectively resolves the NI border issue
    It’s a necessary but not sufficient condition.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,186
    FF43 said:

    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Not going to happen. So the EU’s Irish bluff is going to be called.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    It’s a necessary but not sufficient condition.
    In your view nothing will be a sufficient condition bar reversing Brexit
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.
  • In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited August 2018
    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
    I did think about mentioning that but the post was getting confused enough as it was, my guess is it is referred to as a 2nd referendum as we would be making the decision again quite quickly and/or because we would be making the same decision again. The previous (1st) referendum was for a slightly different thing IMO.

    It would of course be the 3rd referendum related to our relationship in Europe.
  • I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,695
    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    https://twitter.com/samoli94/status/1035281954562887680?s=21
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
    Yeah, and sex, and rows and emotional reconciliations. Surely the viewers should complain if they don't get that? What do they want, celebrities knitting in front of the TV and making cups of Horlicks for each other?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Yeah, and sex, and rows and emotional reconciliations. Surely the viewers should complain if they don't get that? What do they want, celebrities knitting in front of the TV and making cups of Horlicks for each other?
    I enjoyed watching Norway's national knit night.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
    Allegedly it was not really an 'altercation' but a stitch up of Ryan Thomas by Roxanne Pallett as he is close to her ex (forget Brexit, this is what most under 35s are discussing tonight)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    That will be news to Sir David Attenborough, Andrew Marr and Simon Schama
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Sounds like with that level of critical thinking, he is well worth his £170k+ a year. He is the very epitome of white, male and stale.

    Time for him to step down surely.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Well, I'm hoping to prove that wrong.

    Although I'll admit that I'm using a green screen ($40 from Amazon) and faking the hill.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    Hearin’.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Sounds like with that level of critical thinking, he is well worth his £170k+ a year. He is the very epitome of white, male and stale.

    Time for him to step down surely.
    There's only one Cassian Harrison, there's only one Cassian Harrison - please god that's true. He surely lives in Islington.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
    We had the democratic decency to wait 41 years between those two referendums - of course we never voted to remain in the European Union in 1975 but in the Common Market which was a totally different entity.

    I am happy to have a people's vote on rejoining. How about June 2057?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    There's only one Cassian Harrison, there's only one Cassian Harrison - please god that's true. He surely lives in Islington.
    Does the editor of BBC4 - a channel which hardly anyone watches - really deserve to be paid £170K?

    Perhaps we need to end the era of white middle class editors at the BBC and start by sacking him? Or does he mean other white men should lose their jobs at the BBC but not of course him!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,831
    edited September 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    Florida is Trump country, the state which saw his first big gain of an Obama state on the last presidential election night and home of Mar a Lago, the winter White House, Texas swung towards the Democrats in 2016 against the national trend and has a growing Hispanic population
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2018

    Re HS2, being delivered on time pales into insignificance compared to the risk of not being delivered on budget. Now that the tetchy matter of parliamentary approval is out of the way, it's already breached the £100bn barrier.
    In 2010 the Crossrail budget was £15.9 billion but the Coalition government and Boris agreed savings to cut it to £14.8 billion. It's now forecast to cost £15.4 billion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/sep/27/crossrail-budget-cuts

    So it's still forecast to cost £500m less than the original budget even with the current projected £600m overspend against the revised lower budget!

    In hindsight maybe it would have been better not to publicly announce the original change to the budget - so they could at least say not on time but below budget!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited September 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    “Democrats in Texas have been losing statewide elections for Senate for 30 years,” he said. “So you can keep doing the same things, talk to the same consultants, run the same polls, focus-group drive the message. Or you can run like you’ve got nothing to lose. That’s what my wife, Amy, and I decided at the outset. What do we have to lose? Let’s do this the right way, the way that feels good to us. We don’t have a pollster. Let’s talk about the things that are important to us, regardless of how they poll. Let’s not even know how they poll.”


    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1035654211093110784
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    “Democrats in Texas have been losing statewide elections for Senate for 30 years,” he said. “So you can keep doing the same things, talk to the same consultants, run the same polls, focus-group drive the message. Or you can run like you’ve got nothing to lose. That’s what my wife, Amy, and I decided at the outset. What do we have to lose? Let’s do this the right way, the way that feels good to us. We don’t have a pollster. Let’s talk about the things that are important to us, regardless of how they poll. Let’s not even know how they poll.”


    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1035654211093110784
    I’m sure this “no focus group” message did well in the focus groups.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited September 2018

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    What else can they do in the name of survival?
  • RobD said:

    I’m sure this “no focus group” message did well in the focus groups.
    The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you've got it made.
    Jean Giraudoux
    French diplomat, dramatist, & novelist (1882 - 1944)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:

    What else can they do in the name of survival?
    If you are asking what they are allowed or what is morally permissible for them to do then you didn't read my post properly.

    If you are asking the much more accurate in reply to my question what else will they do in the name of survival?

    My answer would probably be there probably aren't many limitations of what humans will resort to in the name of survival regardless of their nationality.
  • I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    https://twitter.com/scozzabc/status/1035426191786815489
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332

    If you are asking what they are allowed or what is morally permissible for them to do then you didn't read my post properly.

    If you are asking the much more accurate in reply to my question what else will they do in the name of survival?

    My answer would probably be there probably aren't many limitations of what humans will resort to in the name of survival regardless of their nationality.
    I was curious at what point you'd stop excusing their actions.
  • I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    I like this one:

    https://twitter.com/florenceblackuk/status/1035632525257977857?s=21
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Thanks for posting!

    That is truly joyous!
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    The Baby Shark one is too good, the timing is spot on. My favourite so far, if you only watch one.

    I can't imagine people will feel negatively towards May for this, aside from people not rating her dancing skills and who really cares about that she deserves praise for giving it a go and I like to see people smiling and having a good time.

    The idea of her being not being a great dancer would have been largely priced in anyway, nobody expected great moves. She may get credit from those who didn't expect her to give it a go and enjoy it. She gets credit from me for it although obviously I'm not switching my vote...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,226
    brendan16 said:

    We had the democratic decency to wait 41 years between those two referendums - of course we never voted to remain in the European Union in 1975 but in the Common Market which was a totally different entity.

    I am happy to have a people's vote on rejoining. How about June 2057?
    Was it a totally different entity?

    It contained the "four freedoms": of capital, goods, services and labour - albeit there was more bureaucracy then.

    It had "ever closer union" enshrined in its treaty.

    It had the ECJ that could overrule UK law*.

    It had a secretariat that produced reams of product specifications**.

    It had the Common Agriculture Policy, and Common Fishiries Policy.

    It had a Common External Tariff.

    It did not intrude into working conditions via the Social Chapter. It did not allow financial services regulated in one country to provide services to one in another. It did not enshrine the non-discrimination principle for all EU citizens. And it did not enforce uniformity in the provision of goods, and (to a lesser) extent services.

    It seems to me that the two big developments were the Eurozone and the accession of the Eastern European countries. Together these two were probably largely responsible for our departure (in that they resulted in rush of immigration), but it seems far fetched to say that it was a totally different institution.

    * Technically we were merely treaty bound to accept its rulings.
    ** Although, of course, a fair amount of that is just a regurgitation into Eurolegalese of product specifications out of various international groupings such as the ITU.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,073

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    And if you want to be ahead of the curve on social issues, you don't need to dally with the far left, anyhow; Liberals have a better track record, including on LGBT+.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,332
    IanB2 said:

    And if you want to be ahead of the curve on social issues, you don't need to dally with the far left, anyhow; Liberals have a better track record, including on LGBT+.
    They don't call them liberals for no reason ;)
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:

    I was curious at what point you'd stop excusing their actions.
    Then you didn't read my post properly.

    I was going to quote relevant parts but that ends up being almost the whole post again.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    Florida is Trump country, the state which saw his first big gain of an Obama state on the last presidential election night and home of Mar a Lago, the winter White House, Texas swung towards the Democrats in 2016 against the national trend and has a growing Hispanic population
    I would bet on Arizona first.
  • I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    I do genuinely question his commitment to global LGBT+ rights.

    You cannot justify support for oppressive regimes (in this regard) on the basis that they might change if you give them what they want.

    There is so little tolerance in the sorts of states that he encourages by his words and his actions. There is no hope of progress when oppressive theocracies are the norm. And it is not just Hamas.

    You cannot support LGBT+ rights at home and viciously oppressive regimes abroad at the same time and not be a hypocrite.

    Any good you might do at home is immediately negated by support for such regimes.

    Plus supporting a clearly homophobic colleague is just not acceptable. He did not condemn or sack her. She is a bigot and he supported her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,195
    Looks like India have taken back control at the Rose bowl.
This discussion has been closed.