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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2018
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2018
Conservatives 6,874 votes (33% -6% on last time) winning 7 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 6,203 votes (30% +1% on last time) winning 3 seats (-1 on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,202 votes (25% +12% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 on last time) Independent candidates 1,887 votes (9% +2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time) Green Party 427 votes (2% -3% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) UKIP 298 votes (1% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 73 votes (0% +0% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Conservative lead of 671 votes (3%) on a swing of 3.56% from Con to Lab
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https://youtu.be/nknYtlOvaQ0
May should take Timothy’s advice and move towards Canada+ in order to avoid no deal...
https://twitter.com/emmacpicken/status/1035597857280192512
Apparently if you are a tosser the enemy of the Labour Party really are Labour MPs
And that is not good for any of us. Left, Right, Centre, whatever. We need a functioning party of the left - not this.
I don't know if there is a good post to reply to specifically on this but it is more of a general point.
The problem with pointing at Corbyn's rebellions is in the eyes of a majority of Labour members he was often right. To give an obvious example Corbyn's rebellion over the Iraq war is always considered a huge strength among the membership. Lesser ones such as his civil liberty stance over excessive anti terror legislation are also popular within the membership. I haven't looked through his entire rebellious record but I'm sure I remember Stepthen Bush talking about Iraq involving several votes (on which I assume he rebelled on each one) it quickly adds up and I suspect there is a reason his opponents in Labour just talk about the number of rebellions rather than the actual things he rebelled on.
I think I also remember Stephen Bush talking about him only voting against Labour 2/10 times during his most rebellious period, I imagine this would range from things that Labour members would approve of to things they don't care about.
The problem for Frank Field and the others that moves were made to deselect is not so much that they voted 'for Brexit' there are many more than the 4 who have voted for Brexit and will vote for Brexit. To give a somewhat popular on here (by the standards of Labour MPs who were for remain) example Caroline Flint, yet she managed not to vote against Labour on this issue.
What they did, as Danny pointed out a few times, was unite Corbyn supporters and strong remainer types (some centrist types) against them, it left them without any real faction in their CLPs to back them. I think the vote against Kate Hoey in her CLP passed without a vote in her favour, Frank got a few in his favour but it was still a pretty overwhelming result against him.
The idea from Labour opponents that Frank Field could stand and win against Labour in his seat is very optimistic I feel, he's in pretty solid Corbyn supporting territory, popularity among the residents of PB and the unpopularity of Corbyn and an MP who presumably is at least a bit more like him is generally not a good guide to what will happen electorally in Liverpool and places like it politically.
You even have your own Kali Ma now with progress.
Although I guess this could be the you have to become what you hate to beat it argument?
In other news:
Michel Barnier is refusing to back down on erecting a border in the Irish Sea to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland, and has publicly asked the British government for data to prove that the checks on goods flowing within the territory of the UK would be few in number.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/31/barnier-stands-firm-erecting-post-brexit-border-irish-sea
Which voters is Barnier acting on the behalf of?
(I can never remember what it is)
The historical soul of Labour is thus more questionable than perhaps it is now. Interesting that less Union dominance is proving more troubling.
Thank goodness they're a bunch of hopeless incompetents more concerned with the Jews.
Rochdale said, 'Apparently if you are a tosser the enemy of the Labour Party really are Labour MPs'
He then said 'It's time to get Tough on Corbyn and Tough on the Causes of Corbyn'
I was pointing out the contradiction of his statement that if you are a tosser then enemy of the Labour party are Labour MPs before he stated his enemy was a Labour MP. Which isn't a contradiction if he is becoming a 'tosser' to fight the 'tossers' which is where my statement about becoming what you hate to beat it comes in.
If you want to have a separate conversation about Progress and Momentum directed/coordinated abuse we can, I haven't seen proof of either organisation directing abuse, even if they wanted to I imagine they wouldn't because it would be bad PR, plenty of criticism back and fore but from the actual organisations and the head people abuse I imagine generally not.
Edit: Unless the specific part you were referring to was Progress also being Kali Ma although to be honest I don't really know the full implication of the reference I just took it to mean the same as cult.
His brand of Labour, both on the right of the party and anti-EU, is however, rare.
That probably won't help Labour in Plymouth.
I know the party made a killing with 2106 leadership election.
Doing well in local by-elections is much easier than doing well across several thousand seats when an entire round of local elections is being fought.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6115547/amp/Jeremy-Corbyn-accused-misleading-Parliament-holding-private-meeting-Holocaust-denier.html?__twitter_impression=true
However, what does appear to be a bit different is the accusation he has misled Parliament. Now that could be serious.
For the record, I didn't really think you were him.
Against a generic Labour Party politician, I'd reckon it would be a very close fight. If they parachuted someone in, and then flooded the constituency with clueless young Jezuits, then Field should probably be favourite. And if they picked a sensible local Leaver not called George Galloway, then the Labour Party would probably win it at a canter.
So, probably Frank Field as narrow favourite.
(On the substantive point, Labour has - very effectively and very sensibly - moved towards individual subs as a key source of income, but I would be surprised to learn they have overtaken union donations. I could be wrong though. Does anyone have the figures?)
Does the EU?
So racist Poland is now our supporter. The Swedish FM wants a second vote.
I wonder if FoM is back if Poland is supporting the UK government position.
I'm not sure Corbyn has ever voted for the painful choice - something that is right, but that is going to look wrong. Has he?
If Corbyn was Blair and Frank Field was fighting this from the left he would have a very good chance, especially in a place that is like Liverpool politically. That is the exact opposite of what is happening though.
It isn't even as if Lib Dem or Green voters are a natural switch to him. Even if you took every single Conservative and UKIP voter, which is obviously unrealistic Field would need a hell of a personal vote on top of that to beat the new potential Labour MP. I think the evidence from the last election showed about 6% of voters vote for their MP personally. Even in a by election with the media rooting for him I think his chances are very slim, some other constituency maybe, where he is, no.
So I don't think the comparison is a simple one - at least, I hope Field doesn't have terminal cancer.
(Edit - my comments are not a reference to Nick Smith, btw.)
The EU’s overplaying a strong hand will backfire on them.
Backfires all round
But he does, however wrong the process used, undoubtedly speak with the power of the Council.
The only problem is as I warned Southam Observer at the time, he seems to speak mostly with Juncker's voice.
https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1035566738543456256
Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?
84% think Brexit is a mess
66% think promises of Brexit supporting politicians will be broken
58% think we will get a bad deal
48% think if we get a bad deal it will be the government's fault
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rvih2zseqr/PeoplesVoteResults_Wave2_180821_GB_website2.pdf
My impression may well be wrong, I just remember being impressed by the amounts we were making from members and when I lined that up with what we spent on the general election guessed that the members were providing more than the Unions, although I'm probably disregarding too much the money spent outside GE's in my assumptions at the time, it wasn't exactly something I thought about too deeply.
That being so it is pretty damning that the EU has not asked itself why the vote went against them. They keep wrapping themselves in the comfort blanket that it was all about immigration, or that the English have never really bought into Europe as a project, or that Cameron was unpopular, and therefore nothing else needs to change. The good ship EU can just carry on as before, and it's perfectly fine to continue to appoint disgraced former national leaders forced to resign for harassing their political opponents using the security services and appear in public roaring drunk on numerous occasions to key posts. Because nobody minds that. It's all about foreigners.
I fear that the EU is riding for the hardest of falls. And now we're leaving there's absolutely nothing we can do about it.
The enemy of the Labour Party are not Labour MPs. Or Labour officials. Or Labour councillors. We can trust Labour council leaders. We don't need a purge of Labour volunteers elected to run CLPs. And yet that is all that comes out of you fucking crazy entryist loons bent on ensuring the Tory party rule for ever. Class traitors they say about Field and Berger and Streeting. Say the people working flat out to get the Tories in for ever.
You are a disgrace sir.
Therefore either you accept the necessity of an Irish sea customs border, or you stop being so silly about the feasibility of a Canada-style trade deal.
You can't say you didn't vote for the consequences of Brexit.
But I'm pretty sure that state hasn't come about yet.
74% would vote Leave if there was a referendum today compared to only 58% of 2015 Tory voters who voted Leave at the actual referendum
26% believe the May government wants to stay in the EU in reality though, 10% believe the government is neutral and only 45% believe it is fully committed to Leaving
40% believe their children's generation will be better off after Brexit with only 22% worse off
59% oppose a 'People's Vote' when the Brexit negotiations are completed
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/rvih2zseqr/PeoplesVoteResults_Wave2_180821_GB_website2.pdf
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfHucSYFoTg
It was supposed to be the 'I, Claudius' on the 1980s.
Let's just say there's a reason the BBC have never shown it since or released it on DVD.
It certainly belongs in the 'so bad its good' category.
Is that really the best reply you can think of ?
Really ?
We'll take that as an admittance that all your predictions have failed to happen.
But tell us how disappointed are you that there wasn't a recession after the Referendum ?
Come on WG we wont hold it against you.
Oh, sorry, never mind...
It gives me no pleasure to see labour in this mess but either Corbyn leads against all this or labour will cease to be an alternative to the conservatives
You think the Lancaster House speech was a ruse, then, presumably?
Corbyn supporters working their bollox off to get Lab elected
Progress types doing everything to ensure JCWNBPM
Everytime Labour are ahead in Polls
The PLP try their best to ensure Tories rule forever
Remember when May's position was "I'm not going to be calling a snap election"?
You had such faith that the unbelievers would be punished and they weren't.
It must have been so disappointing.
Progress have been agitating against Corbyn for a long time, the idea progress are sweetness and light and just work positively for Labour whilst Momentum are factional and completely different is rubbish. They are slightly different, Momentum more of a big membership movement, progress smaller but probably more of an elite well connected type group, but in terms of being factions and fighting their cause they are very similar.
If you want to blame people for making a Labour government less likely then the centrists in Labour who in some cases would actually prefer a Tory government (see Woodcock as an example) and work to that end would be a much better target for your ire.
Also I'm not sure how much of this is Field related but your people abandoned him in his CLP as much as the left. The vote against him wasn't a Corbynite thing, or at least not alone, he overwhelmingly lost because he lost all sides.