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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

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  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    So have a think about if you erect barriers to trade between two regions that have free trade, that are at the same level of development, why would one suffer more than the other?

    I think if the two areas have different sized populations?

    Have a think about who is a net importer and who is a next exporter. Think what happened in the 30's when trade barriers were erected.
    I was in work til 9:30 and I'm in a train surrounded by noisy drunks. My capacity for cogent thought is diminished.



    Ugh, on a Friday. Commiserations.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    So, given Corbz hasn't demonstrated any capacity for changing his opinions since the 80s, what hope do you think his Labour party has of winning?
    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,834

    Foxy said:

    brendan16 said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/30/jeremy-hunt-plays-down-brexit-progress-michel-barnier-poland

    So racist Poland is now our supporter. The Swedish FM wants a second vote.

    I wonder if FoM is back if Poland is supporting the UK government position.

    Forgive me, I've only just started reading today, but the Poles are proposing the end to free movement. They want to tax 'exiting' individuals and businesses.

    They are also against freedom of movement for recent arrivals into the EU.
    Soon to be joined by Orban's Hungary and Salvini's Italy no doubt
    A lot of Eastern European nations have seen massive population reductions due to free movement. The scale of it in places like Bulgaria, Romania and Latvia has been dramatic.

    While it may have seemed like a nice idea to export your young people en masse to northern and Western Europe maybe its not desirable for the long term future of your own nation.
    What could possibly go wrong with emptying out your nation of the best and brightest tax payers, leaving the sick and old behind?
    It didn't seem to hold Ireland back in the late 20th Century.

    Indeed there is considerable evidence that the diaspora often returns with new skills to set up new industries.
    Ireland didn't have net emigration in the late 20th century.
    Not sure what figures you are basing that on. In the 1950's ROI lost 15% of its population to migration, and net migration remained the rule for most of the rest of the century, with only a few years where this was not the case. There was a big outflow in the eighties too. The shift to inward migration came in 1995, and much of that was Irish diaspora returning home to a booming economy, at least until the GFC.

    https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCM-Emigration-Ireland-FINAL.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjmkriznZjdAhUUVsAKHb98AYwQFjAPegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw1ukDLy0orvICisWML7wPzM

  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    So have a think about if you erect barriers to trade between two regions that have free trade, that are at the same level of development, why would one suffer more than the other?

    I think if the two areas have different sized populations?

    Have a think about who is a net importer and who is a next exporter. Think what happened in the 30's when trade barriers were erected.
    I was in work til 9:30 and I'm in a train surrounded by noisy drunks. My capacity for cogent thought is diminished.

    [edit: unfuck blockquote]

    I wish you a nice stress free weekend.
  • Options

    Another day of intense political discourse and still a polarised Brexit debate.

    So time to put the tablet down, lean over and give my good lady a hug, and drift of until the morn.

    May I wish everyone a pleasant nights rest

    Good night folks

    There will be plenty more of the same arguments next week, next month, next year ;-)
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    I thought the tunnels are complete at least, the wires are in place in the approaches to the tunnels at Paddington, Stratford and Abbey Wood.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited August 2018

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    Maybe so. Brexit is backfiring on us.

    Backfires all round :( It is so darn stupid.

    I don’t agree with you that Brexit is a harmful policy; but just playing along for a second, if you’re going to persue a policy that some consider negative, wouldn’t you rather have the backing of your people?
    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    Party voting for economic reasons may well change with age, but the same may well not apply to cultural issues like Brexitism.

    The easy way to resolve t is a #peoplesvote of course, which even a third of Tory voters support.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Exactly. What bollocks the naming of “people’s vote” is.

    Who voted last time? Giraffes?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    Maybe so. Brexit is backfiring on us.

    Backfires all round :( It is so darn stupid.

    I don’t agree with you that Brexit is a harmful policy; but just playing along for a second, if you’re going to persue a policy that some consider negative, wouldn’t you rather have the backing of your people?
    I understand your point, b. ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983, both elections such big landslide wins of well over 100 seat majorities they swept all age groups across the board
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    Maybe so. Brexit is backfiring on us.

    Backfires all round :( It is so darn stupid.

    ...
    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    #peoplesvote of course, which even a third of Tory voters support.
    How is it an easy resolution?

    Think about the possible outcomes:

    1) Leave wins again. Nothing has changed except more time has been wasted. What is to stop anti-democrats demanding another?
    2) Remain wins. Which referendum decision is followed? There will be as many, if not more, disgruntled by a flagrant lack of respect for the first referendum.

    It resolves nothing.

    It resolves the question of whether Remainers outnumber Leavers.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,834
    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    Maybe so. Brexit is backfiring on us.

    Backfires all round :( It is so darn stupid.

    I don’t agree with you that Brexit is a harmful policy; but just playing along for a second, if you’re going to persue a policy that some consider negative, wouldn’t you rather have the backing of your people?
    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    Party voting for economic reasons may well change with age, but the same may well not apply to cultural issues like Brexitism.

    The easy way to resolve t is a #peoplesvote of course, which even a third of Tory voters support.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Exactly. What bollocks the naming of “people’s vote” is.

    Who voted last time? Giraffes?
    People, and people can vote again :)
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    Are you surprised ?

    Though there have been a few tv programs about CrossRail which suggested things were going well.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    Maybe so. Brexit is backfiring on us.

    Backfires all round :( It is so darn stupid.

    I don’t agree with you that Brexit is a harmful policy; but just playing along for a second, if you’re going to persue a policy that some consider negative, wouldn’t you rather have the backing of your people?
    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)
    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    Party voting for economic reasons may well change with age, but the same may well not apply to cultural issues like Brexitism.

    The easy way to resolve t is a #peoplesvote of course, which even a third of Tory voters support.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Wrong sort of people won.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    The simple fact on demographics is that the more exposed to the EU you have been in your life the more anti EU you are. From the polls I believe the cut off was a few years under 40. It does not matter that the OAP's are dying off because the Eurosceptic base is constantly being refilled as more people experience the EU through life.
    Or why have all those enthusiastic EEC voters in 1973 when they were young now voted out.

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    .

    Mortimer said:


    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983
    I am not stating that all the things that led remain voters to vote remain will exist for the entirety of their lives, these young (18-24) remain voters will have their views evolve over time.

    What I am doing is completely dismissing this idea that the 18-24 year olds inevitably end up with the same views of older people now as they get older. It is not exactly what you were stating (although it is in the ballpark) but the theme is popular among a few people on here.

    Previous 18-24 year old Labour voters did not become the pensioner Tory voters that were around when they were younger, they became Tory pensioners with a different set of views. To compare the views of Tory pensioners on homosexuality in 1983 compared to Tory pensioners today would see a big contrast I'm sure. This isn't to say there might have been some drift in the current Tory pensioners views as they aged but they certainly didn't adopt the views of the older generation wholesale, many of the views they had when they were younger which were a rejection of older people's views (less negative towards homosexuality being an obvious one) are things they hung onto and as a result the inevitable churn of demography did change Britain as a country.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,834
    PClipp said:

    The simple fact on demographics is that the more exposed to the EU you have been in your life the more anti EU you are. From the polls I believe the cut off was a few years under 40. It does not matter that the OAP's are dying off because the Eurosceptic base is constantly being refilled as more people experience the EU through life.
    Or why have all those enthusiastic EEC voters in 1973 when they were young now voted out.

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
    People use referendums to kick the government of the day, and this time there is a government of Leavers. The temptation to kick them up the arse is irresistable.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    PClipp said:

    The simple fact on demographics is that the more exposed to the EU you have been in your life the more anti EU you are. From the polls I believe the cut off was a few years under 40. It does not matter that the OAP's are dying off because the Eurosceptic base is constantly being refilled as more people experience the EU through life.
    Or why have all those enthusiastic EEC voters in 1973 when they were young now voted out.

    Back in the 197'0s, the pro-EU leading team was made up of people from all political parties and none.

    This time,the Remain campaign was headed by the leaders of the Tory Government - so naturally people voted against them.

    Cameron and Osborne were singularly inept - they brought about their own downfall.

    Nothing to do with the age of the voters, in my opinion.
    I disagree with the term "singularly." Cameron and Osborne got a hospital pass from BSIE. The board Mandelson, Sainsbury, Green and Alexander, plus Straw and Coetzee had messed it up so much, that Cammo and Osbo had no chance of saving the dire situation.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    .

    Mortimer said:


    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983
    I am not stating that all the things that led remain voters to vote remain will exist for the entirety of their lives, these young (18-24) remain voters will have their views evolve over time.

    What I am doing is completely dismissing this idea that the 18-24 year olds inevitably end up with the same views of older people now as they get older. It is not exactly what you were stating (although it is in the ballpark) but the theme is popular among a few people on here.

    Previous 18-24 year old Labour voters did not become the pensioner Tory voters that were around when they were younger, they became Tory pensioners with a different set of views. To compare the views of Tory pensioners on homosexuality in 1983 compared to Tory pensioners today would see a big contrast I'm sure. This isn't to say there might have been some drift in the current Tory pensioners views as they aged but they certainly didn't adopt the views of the older generation wholesale, many of the views they had when they were younger which were a rejection of older people's views (less negative towards homosexuality being an obvious one) are things they hung onto and as a result the inevitable churn of demography did change Britain as a country.
    Even now the group least supportive of gay marriage is pensioners
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:


    I understand your point, but Brexit has the backing of a minority - less than 40% of voters voted for it. It is not too far from the truth to say that 1/3rd voted for it, 1/3 against it and 1/3rd could not be bothered to get off their arse and vote either way. But I guarantee you this - if it causes economic hurt, that apathetic 1/3rd will not be in favour of it. Also, we know that a significant number of pro-Brexit voters have since popped their clogs and gone for the ultimate "Leave" option.... ;)

    Mortimer said:

    Brexit was voted for. An Irish Sea border was not. Which is going to be objected to more?

    An Irish Sea border is a direct outcome of the vote. It may not have been stated at the time, but given the Irish position the desired Brexit position and the GFA, it is hard to see how any outcome is possible.
    I hear this rather distasteful comment about leave voters dying off but as I am in my mid seventies and voted remain do I not negate one of them !!!!
    To take an actuarial position:

    Elderly Remainers live longer than elderly Leavers. There is a considerable SE class tilt to Remain, and quite a marked higher SE class bias to longevity, often 10 or more years.

    The trend is therefore for the percentage of Remainers to increase in this age range even above the raw mortality.

    Most South East constituencies voted Leave even if London voted Remain
    True, but nothing to do with my point. Demography is trending Remain.
    If demography foretold political allegiance we would not now have a Tory government as the last time the Tories won the 18 to 24 vote was 1983
    Party voting for economic reasons may well change with age, but the same may well not apply to cultural issues like Brexitism.

    The easy way to resolve t is a #peoplesvote of course, which even a third of Tory voters support.
    In what way was EURef NOT a People's Vote?
    Exactly. What bollocks the naming of “people’s vote” is.

    Who voted last time? Giraffes?
    People, and people can vote again :)
    Perhaps we should start with referenda on the Treaties of Maastricht, Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon.

    And if any of those are opposed reverse the EU back to what it was beforehand.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:


    .

    Mortimer said:


    If demography didn't change political opinion then we would still have homophobic laws. The Tories are not successful because every 18 to 24 year old ends up with the same views older people had when they were young. The Tories are successful because they changed their political opinions to fit the opinions of those 18-24 year old people as they became the older sections of the electorate.
    Homosexuality was legal even in 1983. However voters always get more conservative when they get older and more willing to resist change for its own sake, for example the only time Labour have won the pensioner vote in the last 35 years was 1997 and the only time the Tories have won the youth vote in the last 35 years was 1983
    I am not stating that all the things that led remain voters to vote remain will exist for the entirety of their lives, these young (18-24) remain voters will have their views evolve over time.

    What I am doing is completely dismissing this idea that the 18-24 year olds inevitably end up with the same views of older people now as they get older. It is not exactly what you were stating (although it is in the ballpark) but the theme is popular among a few people on here.

    Previous 18-24 year old Labour voters did not become the pensioner Tory voters that were around when they were younger, they became Tory pensioners with a different set of views. To compare the views of Tory pensioners on homosexuality in 1983 compared to Tory pensioners today would see a big contrast I'm sure. This isn't to say there might have been some drift in the current Tory pensioners views as they aged but they certainly didn't adopt the views of the older generation wholesale, many of the views they had when they were younger which were a rejection of older people's views (less negative towards homosexuality being an obvious one) are things they hung onto and as a result the inevitable churn of demography did change Britain as a country.
    Even now the group least supportive of gay marriage is pensioners
    And I imagine the trend has been relentlessly more in favour of gay marriage as demographics shift the people in the group to those born more recently and away from those in the more distant past.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,798
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The people who claim the EU wants to erect a hard border in Ireland and Britain doesn't want have got it backwards. The hard border issue only arises because the UK government potentially wants to diverge from the EU and prioritizes that divergence over a soft border in Ireland. You can debate which is better. Nevertheless the hard border is the consequence of the UK's desire to diverge.

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,620
    AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    Re HS2, being delivered on time pales into insignificance compared to the risk of not being delivered on budget. Now that the tetchy matter of parliamentary approval is out of the way, it's already breached the £100bn barrier.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:



    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    The UK has no problem with a soft customs border. Why is the EU obsessed with a hard customs border?

    Because it needs to treat all its external borders equally unless it has a special deal in place. So it cannot treat a border in Ireland more leniently than a border in Russia.

    That's a perfectly valid reason to be obsessing about the border in Ireland. However, where the EU's position falls down is that sorting this should have been their first priority rather than afterthought - and the only way to sort it out is by a free trade and travel deal which they are refusing to countenance.

    The position only makes sense if we assume Barnier's brief is almost certainly to either keep the UK in the EU in toto, or force us out with no dea at all. Both are extremely stupid options that would only be put forward by a drunk with the IQ of a dead stoat, and therefore we must assume they are indeed the options the Commission want to pursue.

    The result is this mess which a little backbone from Merkel, Macron and May could have avoided.
    "and the only way to sort it out is by a free trade and travel deal which they are refusing to countenance."

    So, the EU should tear up the Single Marketso that the UK can have FTA without FoM.
    If they want to keep a border-free Ireland yes.
    Maybe they don't want a FTA that badly. They know the UK wants one badly.
    The UK will be the EU's largest export market post Brexit
    The UK will still buy EU produce regardless of any deal. I am not so confident about UK exports.
    Will it? There are plenty of Australian, South African even English wines now to choose from, Japanese cars etc
    If there's no deal, I will actively seek out alternatives to European goods, natch.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The people who claim the EU wants to erect a hard border in Ireland and Britain doesn't want have got it backwards. The hard border issue only arises because the UK government potentially wants to diverge from the EU and prioritizes that divergence over a soft border in Ireland. You can debate which is better. Nevertheless the hard border is the consequence of the UK's desire to diverge.

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Staying in the single market for goods as May has proposed effectively resolves the NI border issue
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    John_M said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:



    ydoethur said:

    Mortimer said:

    The UK has no problem with a soft customs border. Why is the EU obsessed with a hard customs border?

    Because it needs to treat all its external borders equally unless it has a special deal in place. So it cannot treat a border in Ireland more leniently than a border in Russia.

    That's a perfectly valid reason to be obsessing about the border in Ireland. However, where the EU's position falls down is that sorting this should have been their first priority rather than afterthought - and the only way to sort it out is by a free trade and travel deal which they are refusing to countenance.

    The position only makes sense if we assume Barnier's brief is almost certainly to either keep the UK in the EU in toto, or force us out with no dea at all. Both are extremely stupid options that would only be put forward by a drunk with the IQ of a dead stoat, and therefore we must assume they are indeed the options the Commission want to pursue.

    The result is this mess which a little backbone from Merkel, Macron and May could have avoided.
    "and the only way to sort it out is by a free trade and travel deal which they are refusing to countenance."

    So, the EU should tear up the Single Marketso that the UK can have FTA without FoM.
    If they want to keep a border-free Ireland yes.
    Maybe they don't want a FTA that badly. They know the UK wants one badly.
    The UK will be the EU's largest export market post Brexit
    The UK will still buy EU produce regardless of any deal. I am not so confident about UK exports.
    Will it? There are plenty of Australian, South African even English wines now to choose from, Japanese cars etc
    If there's no deal, I will actively seek out alternatives to European goods, natch.
    Many will do the same
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The people who claim the EU wants to erect a hard border in Ireland and Britain doesn't want have got it backwards. The hard border issue only arises because the UK government potentially wants to diverge from the EU and prioritizes that divergence over a soft border in Ireland. You can debate which is better. Nevertheless the hard border is the consequence of the UK's desire to diverge.

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Staying in the single market for goods as May has proposed effectively resolves the NI border issue
    It’s a necessary but not sufficient condition.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The people who claim the EU wants to erect a hard border in Ireland and Britain doesn't want have got it backwards. The hard border issue only arises because the UK government potentially wants to diverge from the EU and prioritizes that divergence over a soft border in Ireland. You can debate which is better. Nevertheless the hard border is the consequence of the UK's desire to diverge.

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Not going to happen. So the EU’s Irish bluff is going to be called.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The people who claim the EU wants to erect a hard border in Ireland and Britain doesn't want have got it backwards. The hard border issue only arises because the UK government potentially wants to diverge from the EU and prioritizes that divergence over a soft border in Ireland. You can debate which is better. Nevertheless the hard border is the consequence of the UK's desire to diverge.

    I'd be very surprised if the UK would refuse to recognise EU standards.

    It is the EU worrying about what comes in that drives the EU desire for a hard border.
    Then we commit to the single market, customs union, single regulatory framework and common VAT area and the hard NI border goes away.
    Staying in the single market for goods as May has proposed effectively resolves the NI border issue
    It’s a necessary but not sufficient condition.
    In your view nothing will be a sufficient condition bar reversing Brexit
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.
  • Options

    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited August 2018
    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
    I did think about mentioning that but the post was getting confused enough as it was, my guess is it is referred to as a 2nd referendum as we would be making the decision again quite quickly and/or because we would be making the same decision again. The previous (1st) referendum was for a slightly different thing IMO.

    It would of course be the 3rd referendum related to our relationship in Europe.
  • Options

    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,147
    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    https://twitter.com/samoli94/status/1035281954562887680?s=21
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
    Yeah, and sex, and rows and emotional reconciliations. Surely the viewers should complain if they don't get that? What do they want, celebrities knitting in front of the TV and making cups of Horlicks for each other?
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
    Yeah, and sex, and rows and emotional reconciliations. Surely the viewers should complain if they don't get that? What do they want, celebrities knitting in front of the TV and making cups of Horlicks for each other?
    I enjoyed watching Norway's national knit night.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168

    I think we missed the biggest story of the day:

    Celebrity Big Brother has sparked more than 11,000 complaints to media regulator Ofcom following allegations of an altercation between two former soap actors taking part in the show.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2018/aug/31/thousands-of-complaints-made-to-ofcom-over-big-brother-altercation

    As regular PBers will know, I pride myself in my close interest in popular culture, but I have to confess this one had passed me by. I'm still struggling to comprehend how there can be eleven thousand people so incensed as to make a complaint to Ofcom about almost anything, let alone something on Celebrity Big Brother. Kudos to the producers, though,

    I thought the whole idea was for the 'celebrities' to have altercations.
    Allegedly it was not really an 'altercation' but a stitch up of Ryan Thomas by Roxanne Pallett as he is close to her ex (forget Brexit, this is what most under 35s are discussing tonight)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    That will be news to Sir David Attenborough, Andrew Marr and Simon Schama
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Sounds like with that level of critical thinking, he is well worth his £170k+ a year. He is the very epitome of white, male and stale.

    Time for him to step down surely.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Well, I'm hoping to prove that wrong.

    Although I'll admit that I'm using a green screen ($40 from Amazon) and faking the hill.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    Hearin’.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Sounds like with that level of critical thinking, he is well worth his £170k+ a year. He is the very epitome of white, male and stale.

    Time for him to step down surely.
    There's only one Cassian Harrison, there's only one Cassian Harrison - please god that's true. He surely lives in Islington.
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
    We had the democratic decency to wait 41 years between those two referendums - of course we never voted to remain in the European Union in 1975 but in the Common Market which was a totally different entity.

    I am happy to have a people's vote on rejoining. How about June 2057?
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    AndyJS said:

    "Cassian Harrison, the editor of BBC Four, told the Edinburgh International Television Festival last week that no one wants to watch white men explaining stuff on TV any more. ‘There’s a mode of programming that involves a presenter, usually white, middle-aged and male, standing on a hill and “telling you like it is”,’ he said. ‘We all recognise the era of that has passed.’"

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/why-is-a-bbc-executive-calling-for-the-removal-of-middle-aged-white-men-from-television/

    Sounds like with that level of critical thinking, he is well worth his £170k+ a year. He is the very epitome of white, male and stale.

    Time for him to step down surely.
    There's only one Cassian Harrison, there's only one Cassian Harrison - please god that's true. He surely lives in Islington.
    Does the editor of BBC4 - a channel which hardly anyone watches - really deserve to be paid £170K?

    Perhaps we need to end the era of white middle class editors at the BBC and start by sacking him? Or does he mean other white men should lose their jobs at the BBC but not of course him!

  • Options

    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    https://twitter.com/samoli94/status/1035281954562887680?s=21
    https://twitter.com/lauraewaddell/status/1035288675612086272
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,168
    edited September 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    Florida is Trump country, the state which saw his first big gain of an Obama state on the last presidential election night and home of Mar a Lago, the winter White House, Texas swung towards the Democrats in 2016 against the national trend and has a growing Hispanic population
  • Options
    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited September 2018

    AndyJS said:

    I'm so disappointed about CrossRail. I really thought it would be delivered on time. Doesn't bode well for HS2.

    Re HS2, being delivered on time pales into insignificance compared to the risk of not being delivered on budget. Now that the tetchy matter of parliamentary approval is out of the way, it's already breached the £100bn barrier.
    In 2010 the Crossrail budget was £15.9 billion but the Coalition government and Boris agreed savings to cut it to £14.8 billion. It's now forecast to cost £15.4 billion.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/sep/27/crossrail-budget-cuts

    So it's still forecast to cost £500m less than the original budget even with the current projected £600m overspend against the revised lower budget!

    In hindsight maybe it would have been better not to publicly announce the original change to the budget - so they could at least say not on time but below budget!
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,789
    edited September 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    “Democrats in Texas have been losing statewide elections for Senate for 30 years,” he said. “So you can keep doing the same things, talk to the same consultants, run the same polls, focus-group drive the message. Or you can run like you’ve got nothing to lose. That’s what my wife, Amy, and I decided at the outset. What do we have to lose? Let’s do this the right way, the way that feels good to us. We don’t have a pollster. Let’s talk about the things that are important to us, regardless of how they poll. Let’s not even know how they poll.”


    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1035654211093110784
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    “Democrats in Texas have been losing statewide elections for Senate for 30 years,” he said. “So you can keep doing the same things, talk to the same consultants, run the same polls, focus-group drive the message. Or you can run like you’ve got nothing to lose. That’s what my wife, Amy, and I decided at the outset. What do we have to lose? Let’s do this the right way, the way that feels good to us. We don’t have a pollster. Let’s talk about the things that are important to us, regardless of how they poll. Let’s not even know how they poll.”


    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1035654211093110784
    I’m sure this “no focus group” message did well in the focus groups.
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited September 2018


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    What else can they do in the name of survival?
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    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    “Democrats in Texas have been losing statewide elections for Senate for 30 years,” he said. “So you can keep doing the same things, talk to the same consultants, run the same polls, focus-group drive the message. Or you can run like you’ve got nothing to lose. That’s what my wife, Amy, and I decided at the outset. What do we have to lose? Let’s do this the right way, the way that feels good to us. We don’t have a pollster. Let’s talk about the things that are important to us, regardless of how they poll. Let’s not even know how they poll.”


    https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1035654211093110784
    I’m sure this “no focus group” message did well in the focus groups.
    The secret of success is sincerity. Once you can fake that you've got it made.
    Jean Giraudoux
    French diplomat, dramatist, & novelist (1882 - 1944)
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:


    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    What else can they do in the name of survival?
    If you are asking what they are allowed or what is morally permissible for them to do then you didn't read my post properly.

    If you are asking the much more accurate in reply to my question what else will they do in the name of survival?

    My answer would probably be there probably aren't many limitations of what humans will resort to in the name of survival regardless of their nationality.
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    I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    https://twitter.com/scozzabc/status/1035426191786815489
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:


    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    What else can they do in the name of survival?
    If you are asking what they are allowed or what is morally permissible for them to do then you didn't read my post properly.

    If you are asking the much more accurate in reply to my question what else will they do in the name of survival?

    My answer would probably be there probably aren't many limitations of what humans will resort to in the name of survival regardless of their nationality.
    I was curious at what point you'd stop excusing their actions.
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    I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    I like this one:

    https://twitter.com/florenceblackuk/status/1035632525257977857?s=21
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Jonathan said:

    Whoever got May dancing is a genius. She is acquiring national treasure status.

    https://twitter.com/samoli94/status/1035281954562887680?s=21
    T

    https://twitter.com/lauraewaddell/status/1035288675612086272
    Thanks for posting!

    That is truly joyous!
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    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    I suspect Mrs May is coming out ahead.....

    The Baby Shark one is too good, the timing is spot on. My favourite so far, if you only watch one.

    I can't imagine people will feel negatively towards May for this, aside from people not rating her dancing skills and who really cares about that she deserves praise for giving it a go and I like to see people smiling and having a good time.

    The idea of her being not being a great dancer would have been largely priced in anyway, nobody expected great moves. She may get credit from those who didn't expect her to give it a go and enjoy it. She gets credit from me for it although obviously I'm not switching my vote...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,073
    brendan16 said:

    In regards to a people's vote, or more specifically calling it a people's vote rather than a 2nd referendum. Why do people get so annoyed with it?

    It clearly is a 2nd referendum but with a different name, they gave it the different name (I'm sure I read) because polling showed a people's vote polled better than a 2nd referendum. So of course they are going to use that wording, the vast majority of people in their position would do exactly the same thing.

    If you want to make clear that it isn't actually different from a 2nd referendum that is fine, I agree completely. If people want to push the idea that the first vote was also a people's vote, which it was just as much as this 2nd one would be, that is also fine, I agree completely. Beyond that though you may as well complain about politics in general. It is obvious why they are doing it and most would do the same.

    3rd referendum. The last one was the 2nd referendum.
    We had the democratic decency to wait 41 years between those two referendums - of course we never voted to remain in the European Union in 1975 but in the Common Market which was a totally different entity.

    I am happy to have a people's vote on rejoining. How about June 2057?
    Was it a totally different entity?

    It contained the "four freedoms": of capital, goods, services and labour - albeit there was more bureaucracy then.

    It had "ever closer union" enshrined in its treaty.

    It had the ECJ that could overrule UK law*.

    It had a secretariat that produced reams of product specifications**.

    It had the Common Agriculture Policy, and Common Fishiries Policy.

    It had a Common External Tariff.

    It did not intrude into working conditions via the Social Chapter. It did not allow financial services regulated in one country to provide services to one in another. It did not enshrine the non-discrimination principle for all EU citizens. And it did not enforce uniformity in the provision of goods, and (to a lesser) extent services.

    It seems to me that the two big developments were the Eurozone and the accession of the Eastern European countries. Together these two were probably largely responsible for our departure (in that they resulted in rush of immigration), but it seems far fetched to say that it was a totally different institution.

    * Technically we were merely treaty bound to accept its rulings.
    ** Although, of course, a fair amount of that is just a regurgitation into Eurolegalese of product specifications out of various international groupings such as the ITU.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,474


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    And if you want to be ahead of the curve on social issues, you don't need to dally with the far left, anyhow; Liberals have a better track record, including on LGBT+.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    IanB2 said:


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    I can't let that one go. You cannot be a champion of LGBT+ rights and at the same time cosy up to regimes that actively seek the destruction of LGBT+ people. He isn't seeking to bring about change - he is just propping them up.

    And even within his own Front Bench, he actively supported a Welsh MP who was deeply homophobic towards one of her staff. And this was in the past few weeks - not years ago. This is his current thinking.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    And if you want to be ahead of the curve on social issues, you don't need to dally with the far left, anyhow; Liberals have a better track record, including on LGBT+.
    They don't call them liberals for no reason ;)
  • Options
    TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    What else can they do in the name of survival?
    If you are asking what they are allowed or what is morally permissible for them to do then you didn't read my post properly.

    If you are asking the much more accurate in reply to my question what else will they do in the name of survival?

    My answer would probably be there probably aren't many limitations of what humans will resort to in the name of survival regardless of their nationality.
    I was curious at what point you'd stop excusing their actions.
    Then you didn't read my post properly.

    I was going to quote relevant parts but that ends up being almost the whole post again.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Off topic... could Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz in Texas? Cruz has terrible favourables, Beto seems like a very likable candidate, and the voters seem keen to give the Republicans a kicking.

    It would be an extraordinary Senate election if the Dems lost Florida and gained Texas.

    Florida is Trump country, the state which saw his first big gain of an Obama state on the last presidential election night and home of Mar a Lago, the winter White House, Texas swung towards the Democrats in 2016 against the national trend and has a growing Hispanic population
    I would bet on Arizona first.
  • Options


    Corbz is lucky, or unlucky perhaps, in that many of his views, such as LGBT rights, anti nuclear weapons etc. were ahead of their time. His problem seemed to be waiting for society to catch up.

    He is no friend of the LGBT+ community. No friend at all.
    I'm not sure if you believe this yourself or write it in the hope that somebody else does, without wishing to be too disrespectful that is nonsense.

    Corbyn (and of course other people in politics) supported gay rights when it wasn't the standard positive PR position it is today, it was society that caught up with people with his views. I imagine many politicians now are supportive of gay rights but any sensible one that wasn't would keep their mouth shut. I'm sure this angle makes Tory voters happy but it just doesn't really work for people who don't already dislike Corbyn.

    The angle of Hamas (or other Palestinians) are homophobic in relation to the Israeli-Palestine struggle gets pushed in different ways, this incarnation seems to involve Corbyn must hate gay people (or at least not care for gay rights) because he has met with various Palestinians and supports the Palestinian cause. The problem with this is if we take the example of apartheid South Africa then more homophobia on the part of the oppressed non whites would not in any way justify apartheid or take away from those campaigning to end it.

    Those who really do want LGBT+ rights in Palestine have to want the Palestinians to have a viable state, insisting on bombing and starving the Palestinians into submission whilst simultaneously expecting them to adopt modern LGBT+ values even Western societies didn't have a few decades ago is insane. The simplest and most likely way to get Palestinian society to evolve to the point where it is more accepting of LGBT+ rights is to not to force them to have a society based on survival and fighting back. That is not a society where liberal social values will flourish. I suspect though that it is largely a stick to beat them with and justify the oppression.
    I do genuinely question his commitment to global LGBT+ rights.

    You cannot justify support for oppressive regimes (in this regard) on the basis that they might change if you give them what they want.

    There is so little tolerance in the sorts of states that he encourages by his words and his actions. There is no hope of progress when oppressive theocracies are the norm. And it is not just Hamas.

    You cannot support LGBT+ rights at home and viciously oppressive regimes abroad at the same time and not be a hypocrite.

    Any good you might do at home is immediately negated by support for such regimes.

    Plus supporting a clearly homophobic colleague is just not acceptable. He did not condemn or sack her. She is a bigot and he supported her.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Looks like India have taken back control at the Rose bowl.
This discussion has been closed.