politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM

Oh was that a primus inter pares?

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Ricciardo leaving Red Bull for Renault!
http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/11459194/daniel-ricciardo-to-leave-red-bull

Good for him.
Risky, but would always have been number 2 at Red Bull; it's also a sign that Renault are getting serious about next season.

But given how bad the Renault engine has been in the Red Bull it seems a courageous move.

Mind you I said the same about Lewis Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes.

I'd take the Renault works team over whatever Honda are going to offer next season. They are still way down on power compared to Renault. Renault also have their party mode coming in the mk3 which will be available to Renault, McLaren and RBR from Spa, Honda haven't got a schedule for any kind of party mode. Also, it looks like the Honda request to kill of the MGU-K is dead now, the other three engine manufacturers have invested so much money in it they don't want to kill it off any more. That means Honda are still at least two years down on MGU-K development and we've how much difference it can make now that Ferrari have developed it so well.

I have to agree. Honda will catch up if they stay in the game, but it will take time.

I hope Renault keep Hulkenberg; I expect Ricciardo to beat him, but it's going to be very interesting.

I expect the Ricciardo decision was influenced by how little Red Bull offered him to resign compared to what Verstappen was given; that send a message far stronger than any assurances about 'equal status'...

Your final point is probably what swung it for Danny. He's a great racing driver and it really started to feel like RBR were disrespecting him towards the end. I think in terms of outright pace Max definitely has the edge, but in terms of overtaking and racing, Danny is way, way ahead of Max. Maybe RBR think Max can learn the latter and are betting on raw pace, but I'm not convinced.

I think the other factor is that Danny is said to be a very good development driver, he's very strong at pointing out any flaws and helping the team get the most out of a car through good setup. Conversely Max is not very good at that, their second driver is now very important and I don't think either of the Toro Rosso drivers are good enough to fill that spot. With a new engine for RBR and a lead driver that isn't solid on development it's going to be long season for Renault, IMO.

Lol, Boris. Starting to become a good price to lay.

Yes the 'big Mo is with BoJo'. He is also in a stronger position than Portillo and Davis were as he polls better with the public than they did as well as having more charisma.

Now he leads the Tory membership polls he is in a very strong place. The only risk is he could be Heseltine to May's Thatcher, toppling the Queen but failing to get the crown with someone like Javid doing a Major and taking it instead.

However crucially Major won as he did as well as Hezza v Kinnock in the first head to head polling he was included in after becoming Chancellor while Thatcher trailed Kinnock.

Javid and Hunt and Gove and Mogg all do worse than May v Corbyn in current polls with only Boris doing better

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

The following could be added to Mike's list.

Ken Clarke, John Moore, Willie Whitelaw, Rab Butler, and Edward Wood

HYUFD said:

Yes the 'big Mo is with BoJo'. He is also in a stronger position than Portillo and Davis were as he polls better with the public than they did as well as having more charisma. ...

Good to have your completely objective take on his prospects.

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Yes the 'big Mo is with BoJo'. He is also in a stronger position than Portillo and Davis were as he polls better with the public than they did as well as having more charisma. ...

Good to have your completely objective take on his prospects.

It is based on the polling which is the main evidence we have

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Except that Heseltine had a reasonable support from the MPs.

Indeed.

I've done a lot of research for my piece. Hard to believe someone who only 5% of Tory voters wanted as PM became Tory leader/PM a few days later.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Except that Heseltine had a reasonable support from the MPs.

Indeed.

I've done a lot of research for my piece. Hard to believe someone who only 5% of Tory voters wanted as PM became Tory leader/PM a few days later.

It was the polling showing Major beating Kinnock that was key after he became Chancellor, not his overall early ranking

It's not going to be Boris (save in a scenario in which Labour suddenly accumulates a huge poll lead and Tory MPs become desperate, and that would require a sequence of events beginning with Corbyn falling under a bus.)

Based on my limited knowledge and intuition (health warning: I'm normally wrong about these things) I reckon the next leader will be a less prominent Leaver from outside of the cabinet.

Also, I agree with sentiments expressed above the line re: Labour. More MPs could (indeed will, if constituency activists get their way re: the Eurosceptic rebels) flake off due to individual circumstances, but Labour's not going to split.

FPT

MyBurningEars said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What makes Amazon the big bucks globally is AWS.

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Except that Heseltine had a reasonable support from the MPs.

Indeed.

I've done a lot of research for my piece. Hard to believe someone who only 5% of Tory voters wanted as PM became Tory leader/PM a few days later.

It was the polling showing Major beating Kinnock that was key after he became Chancellor, not his overall early ranking

Except Major wasn't a proven flake and bottler at the time.

AlastairMeeks said:

A party whose supporters are unhinged enough to be willing to see a return to violence in Northern Ireland or Scotland independent if that secures Brexit cannot be assumed to be sane enough to reject Boris Johnson.

The MPs stand as gatekeepers. 80 headbangers might be enough to inflict him on us all. Can anyone say with confidence that there aren't 80 headbanging Conservative MPs?

If there is violence in Northern Ireland it will be because of the collapse of Stormont NOT Brexit, the SNP won fewer MPs after Brexit than before Brexit

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Boris would make a Corbyn win more likely

Yup, HYUFD is getting way too overexcited by a poll that shows a 0.5% swing from Lab to Con if Boris becomes leader.

That's quite pathetic for Boris.

But rather better than EVERY other contender who see a swing from Con to Lab

"Mathematically Corbyn’s LAB’s influence is declining because it is shedding MPs, O’Mara and Woodcock for instance. This reduces the number under Corbyn’s command which has never been sufficient to bring down the government even with the support of all the other parties bar the DUP.

There’s also increasing talk at the moment of splinters within the parliamentary party though I’ll believe that only when it happens."

In terms of being able to achieve positive action, yes. However, on a parliamentary VoNC, I'd expect that O'Mara, Woodcock and any SDP2 would still line up alongside Corbyn in the Aye lobby. Bringing down the Tories is something that would unite them (possibly not O'Mara depending on how selfish he was feeling).

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Except that Heseltine had a reasonable support from the MPs.

Indeed.

I've done a lot of research for my piece. Hard to believe someone who only 5% of Tory voters wanted as PM became Tory leader/PM a few days later.

It was the polling showing Major beating Kinnock that was key after he became Chancellor, not his overall early ranking

This was polling undertaken in November 1990, days before John Major became PM.

The only splinters that we'll see in the Labour party are the ones in the arses of all those self-labelling moderate MPs who are sitting on the fence.

On topic, there are three-and-a-half years in which to replace May. It's not so much a question of not having the bottle; it's a question of timing and personnel. You don't start a contest unless you're reasonably confident that the worst realistic outcome is better than the status quo continuing. For the moment, disrupting the Brexit talks for the sake of risking putting someone in charge who is more interested in grandstanding than delivering is not worthwhile. That equation changes next Spring.

Buttler....

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

No.

You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.

Heseltine would have won if polls showed only he could beat Kinnock, it was when polling showed Major could also beat Kinnock that Major won

Wait, so you're admitting polls can change?

The first poll of a Major led Tories v Kinnock Labour had the Tories ahead

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

All down to Curran and Rashid now.
I expect a stand of less than three figures....

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

An opinion poll tells you that. I would suggest that a minimum you would be better phrasing it, the polling suggests that..., unless you live in a world of hard certainty.

FPT in response to @AlistairMeeks:-

“AlistairMeeks said:
If I may be permitted to go off my own topic, there's a very long but very good piece in Haaretz about Jeremy Corbyn's difficulties with the subject of anti-Semitism:

https://www.haaretz.com/amp/world-news/.premium-why-corbynism-is-a-threat-to-jews-throughout-the-western-world-1.6339863?__twitter_impression=true”

It is a very good article.

But one point is omitted: one of the reasons why those who do not want Israel to exist are so keen to describe it as a Nazi or Nazi-like state is because that makes it so much easier to justify its destruction, its removal from the world scene. After all, who wouldn’t want to stop another Nazi state arising? Ditto with the comparisons with apartheid South Africa.

So the use of Nazi comparisons is not just people getting overheated or being anti-semitic or even being enthusiastically pro-Palestinian. It is a necessary part of an agenda which has as its logical end point the extermination of the state of Israel. Such language is not necessary (and arguably deeply unhelpful) if your aim is to get Israel to change its policies for the better. But it is absolutely essential if you want Israel to disappear and be replaced by a Palestinian state from Jordan to the sea, which is the explicit aim of, for instance, Hamas.

Corbyn’s view of Israel and the language he uses is, whether he realises it or not, exterminatory in its aims and consequences. If he really believes what he says, then he should be arguing that Israel has no right to exist. It is certainly what some of his supporters believe and what many of his Palestinian associates believe. The threat to Jewry if Britain is led by such a man is the risk that it becomes the first Western country to call for Israel no longer to exist. And then what? What happens to the Jews living there, born there?

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Yes Boris would be better as chairman maybe Javid or Gove as chief executive, just as Cameron was better as chairman and Osborne as chief executive or Blair as chairman and Brown chief executive etc.

The problem now is both May and Hammond are dull details driven ceos but neither charismatic chairmen. Arguably Corbyn is a chairman and McDonnell CEO too

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT

MyBurningEars said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What makes Amazon the big bucks globally is AWS.

And this is also on the ball. The retail operation makes surprisingly little taxable profit because Amazon is still expansionary and has tended to reinvest the cash it generates. This is the other thing that Tim Worstall pointed out in 2013 - fine, tax the warehouses, but don't expect to rake in a shedload of tax from it - but as Amazon reaches maturity that's a point that's likely to become less relevant.

Personally I don't like what's going on and I think it really should be changed (particularly before Amazon starts making really serious retail profits), but I'm under no illusions there are going to be easy fixes.

Part of my complaint is the unfairness of it, really, rather than the thought of all this lovely tax we're missing out on. There are arguments for reform of corporation tax but those people proposing it should have a turnover element need to be aware that (a) it's economically worse than taxing on profit [think of the effect on industries with different margins], (b) it doesn't solve the issue if it's turnover of a foreign company that's taxable in their home country, rather than within the UK. There are actually grounds in optimal taxation theory for abolishing corporate income taxes entirely (but rethinking how investors are taxed on dividends/capital gains) and given the impact of globalisation and the complexity of identifying where in a complex chain that profit is actually being made, that radical option may become less unattractive.

Two birds one stone I've suggested here the alternative to a Brexit deal is to simply abolish corporation tax and/or Employers NI.

Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.

Indeed. A sharp cut in business rates too.

We need to make it quite clear that we’ll go down the Singapore-on-Thames route if there’s no deal, it’s the one outcome the EU are seriously worried about.

Great idea, we could just use that magic money tree instead eh?

Nigelb said:

All down to Curran and Rashid now.
I expect a stand of less than three figures....

They'll be doing well to get the total to three figures!

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

I simply do not understand what people see in Boris. He was right for Mayor in London, especially against Ken, but that was years ago. He was given a serious and important job to do and has messed it up. His time has gone. He is not serious.

He doesn't need to be serious for the true Leavers, any more than Donald Trump needed to be serious. He just needs to seem to be on their side. Boris Johnson seems on their side. So he is papabile for the nutjobs.

That may, depressingly, be true.

But the only side Boris is on is his own. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him. He’d be just as likely to use the ERG to become leader and then throw them over if he thought it would help him. The nutjobs might want to bear that in mind.

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.
What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

MaxPB said:

On Riccardo to Renault, where the hell does it leave Ocon?! There is no drive at Mercedes and we all assumed he'd end up at Renault. He must be mad as hell right now.

Red Bull? They’re going to have to find someone, and neither of the STR drivers seem of the required standard.

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

On Riccardo to Renault, where the hell does it leave Ocon?! There is no drive at Mercedes and we all assumed he'd end up at Renault. He must be mad as hell right now.

Red Bull? They’re going to have to find someone, and nieherof the STR drivers seem of the required standard.

Sainz probably is though, and he's still a RBR driver. Would be a good stop-gap for them.

Possibly yes. It was always said that Ricciardo was the key to the driver market, there’s now about to be a very big game of musical chairs as everyone scrambles for a seat.

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.
What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

And when was that taken ?

Once Major was Chancellor, Javid is now Home Secretary and Hunt Foreign Secretary

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Some people are good at detail and some run the country. Find Boris a Simon Milton or Edward Lister to do the detail and Boris can do the leadership and presentation and decision making,

MarqueeMark said:

I don't have the antagonism towards Boris that many do. He has a certain attraction as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. And frankly, many of the critics sound as absurd as those who pledged they would leave London if he became its mayor. I don't recall reading that it fell into the Thames on his watch.

But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.

I don`t think anything has changed really. But it could be that, having served in the Cabinet with them, he now realises that all the rest of the Conservative contenders would be even worse than himself.

And he would be a disaster. Nobody would take him seriously.

MarqueeMark said:

I don't have the antagonism towards Boris that many do. He has a certain attraction as an anti-politician in an age of anti-politics. And frankly, many of the critics sound as absurd as those who pledged they would leave London if he became its mayor. I don't recall reading that it fell into the Thames on his watch.

But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.

It's surely not that 'he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016', rather he realised he wouldn't win and had no stomach for a losing fight. As ever, what's best for Boris was his guiding principle.

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

On Riccardo to Renault, where the hell does it leave Ocon?! There is no drive at Mercedes and we all assumed he'd end up at Renault. He must be mad as hell right now.

Red Bull? They’re going to have to find someone, and nieherof the STR drivers seem of the required standard.

Sainz probably is though, and he's still a RBR driver. Would be a good stop-gap for them.

Possibly yes. It was always said that Ricciardo was the key to the driver market, there’s now about to be a very big game of musical chairs as everyone scrambles for a seat.

Not by everyone...
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/23996235/red-bull-expects-new-daniel-ricciardo-deal-summer-break
Christian Horner says only a shock Lewis Hamilton retirement would stop Daniel Ricciardo signing a contract extension with Red Bull now….

Oh dear, oh dear.

https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1025320502200606721

This is the Boris who signed off the Chequers proposal, right?

I'm loving HYUFD's idea that Boris Johnson is going to sell May's Brexit, that he described as a turd, to the public in a General Election.

Post-referendum he couldn't even sell his own version of Brexit. His big speech was a disaster that's only remembered for jokes about stag dos and sex tourism.

Sandpit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is the Boris who signed off the Chequers proposal, right?

And then resigned a few days later.

Whilst skipping an important COBRA meeting and a meeting of Balkan foreign ministers.

I have nearly as much contempt for Boris as I do towards Mark Reckless.

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

The one thing you'd think we'd all have learned by now is not to take too much notice of opinion polls.

Relative to Boris every other candidate is going to struggle for name recognition in a survey like this. You could drop in a selection of lower-ranking ministers whom hardly anyone amongst the general public has ever heard of and they would do potentially even worse than any of this lot, but a few good TV performances and a bit of positive coverage and they could soon be doing rather better than 38%. You just don't know.

Whatever side of the EU referendum divide the next leader ultimately comes from, the Tories require one who can provide direction, and convey an impression of competence to the electorate, if they're going to have the best chance of seeing off Corbyn. No amount of entertaining flim-flammery from Boris is going to save his party if he ultimately turns out to be merely a more colourful ditherer than May.

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

Were not Cameron and Blair in the good salesman rather than detail category of leaders?

Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?

Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.

Boris is more like the motivational speaker you book for the sales conference who goes on too long...

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wait until you see my 'Why it is unlikely to Boris' piece on Sunday.

If it is not Boris prepare for PM Corbyn

That depends on who it is. But Boris is absolutely not PM material. he is a good salesman but not a chief executive and a party and government led by Boris would be a directionless disaster, driven by whims and with no attention to detail or follow-through.

But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.

The Tories would be on 29% under Javid and Hunt and 30% under Gove and 35% with Mogg with Yougov but 38% with Boris.

You have no idea what they would be.
What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?

Major beat Kinnock in the first poll of how the Tories would fare under his leadership

And when was that taken ?

Once Major was Chancellor, Javid is now Home Secretary and Hunt Foreign Secretary

John Major was Chancellor and starred weekly in his own television show: Spitting Image. So we are back to these hypothetical (and often voodoo) polls being about name recognition and more bluntly, who's been on the telly most. Boris beats JRM beats the rest.

williamglenn said:

I'm loving HYUFD's idea that Boris Johnson is going to sell May's Brexit, that he described as a turd, to the public in a General Election.

Post-referendum he couldn't even sell his own version of Brexit. His big speech was a disaster that's only remembered for jokes about stag dos and sex tourism.

You have to allow, though, that if he can sell his candidature as a good thing, his turd polishing skills are well above average.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

This is the Boris who signed off the Chequers proposal, right?

And then resigned a few days later.

Whilst skipping an important COBRA meeting and a meeting of Balkan foreign ministers.

I have nearly as much contempt for Boris as I do towards Mark Reckless.

The PM should really have fired him for his antics going AWOL on that day, totally unprofessional from the man in charge of diplomacy.

When you think about things, deep down - whatever your political persuasion (Unless it's very far left or right I'd suggest... you realise that May is probably the best person to get us through Brexit.
If you were going to do it as a Gov't of national unity, having May and Brown working together probably wouldn't be the worst idea in the world on this.

Boris isn't up to the job.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Haven't missed anything, have I?

https://twitter.com/daverich1/status/1025373354239451136

Yorkcity said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I did advise laying Boris in the last Tory leadership contest.

I did ask Shadsy to price up a market on Boris not standing in the next contest, he said no, but he did say if was going to put up such a market, he'd make Boris not standing the favourite.

Boris was not suited to the dull technicality of Brexit negotiations but beating Corbyn and selling Brexit UK he certainly is suited to

Agreed , he would easily beat Corbyn.

So in that case , why all the heart searching .

May would have more chance of beating Corbyn on a re-match.