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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BoJo is back heading the betting to be next PM
In a betting move that looks as though it was driven by this week’s ConHome members’ survey which has BoJo on top the ex-mayor and ex-ForeignSec, is now favourite on Betfair to be the next Prime Minister. He replaces Mr. Corbyn who is having many troubles in his own party over the approach of his team to antisemitism.
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I think the other factor is that Danny is said to be a very good development driver, he's very strong at pointing out any flaws and helping the team get the most out of a car through good setup. Conversely Max is not very good at that, their second driver is now very important and I don't think either of the Toro Rosso drivers are good enough to fill that spot. With a new engine for RBR and a lead driver that isn't solid on development it's going to be long season for Renault, IMO.
Now he leads the Tory membership polls he is in a very strong place. The only risk is he could be Heseltine to May's Thatcher, toppling the Queen but failing to get the crown with someone like Javid doing a Major and taking it instead.
However crucially Major won as he did as well as Hezza v Kinnock in the first head to head polling he was included in after becoming Chancellor while Thatcher trailed Kinnock.
Javid and Hunt and Gove and Mogg all do worse than May v Corbyn in current polls with only Boris doing better
You sound like a Heseltine supporter in November 1990.
Ken Clarke, John Moore, Willie Whitelaw, Rab Butler, and Edward Wood
That's quite pathetic for Boris.
I've done a lot of research for my piece. Hard to believe someone who only 5% of Tory voters wanted as PM became Tory leader/PM a few days later.
The MPs stand as gatekeepers. 80 headbangers might be enough to inflict him on us all. Can anyone say with confidence that there aren't 80 headbanging Conservative MPs?
Either someone who needs the cheque, or a young naif who think they'll be able/allowed to be Ricciaro to his Vettel...
Based on my limited knowledge and intuition (health warning: I'm normally wrong about these things) I reckon the next leader will be a less prominent Leaver from outside of the cabinet.
Also, I agree with sentiments expressed above the line re: Labour. More MPs could (indeed will, if constituency activists get their way re: the Eurosceptic rebels) flake off due to individual circumstances, but Labour's not going to split.
Even if we don't do that we should let the Irish know that is our Plan B if they don't make a deal with us.
But while Boris would significantly increase Corbyn's chances, that doesn't mean that a not-Boris wouldn't do the same - JRM, for example. On the other hand, I suspect that there's a large portion of the electorate which isn't looking for ideology or revolution and just wants effecient, effective government. To them, any Tory leader who looks optimistic, confident and competent will do. You might say that's quite a high bar - and it is - but I do think that Javid/Gove could potentially recreate a lot of what Cameron/Osborne did, though you never really know what a leader would be like until they're in post.
But....I come back to the question I have posed here before: if he didn't think he was the right person to go forward as PM in 2016, what has changed in the past couple of years? I'd really love to hear his answer to that.
There’s also increasing talk at the moment of splinters within the parliamentary party though I’ll believe that only when it happens."
In terms of being able to achieve positive action, yes. However, on a parliamentary VoNC, I'd expect that O'Mara, Woodcock and any SDP2 would still line up alongside Corbyn in the Aye lobby. Bringing down the Tories is something that would unite them (possibly not O'Mara depending on how selfish he was feeling).
The pivotal poll was a Major led Tories beating Kinnock Labour as noted in Alan Clark's diary, without that poll Heseltine would have likely won
Was not Brown and May in the detail obsessive but not salesman/woman category of leaders?
Boris seems more of a Blair or Cameron than a Brown or May. A Chairman more than a Chief Executive.
We need to make it quite clear that we’ll go down the Singapore-on-Thames route if there’s no deal, it’s the one outcome the EU are seriously worried about.
I expect a stand of less than three figures....
“AlistairMeeks said:
If I may be permitted to go off my own topic, there's a very long but very good piece in Haaretz about Jeremy Corbyn's difficulties with the subject of anti-Semitism:
https://www.haaretz.com/amp/world-news/.premium-why-corbynism-is-a-threat-to-jews-throughout-the-western-world-1.6339863?__twitter_impression=true”
It is a very good article.
But one point is omitted: one of the reasons why those who do not want Israel to exist are so keen to describe it as a Nazi or Nazi-like state is because that makes it so much easier to justify its destruction, its removal from the world scene. After all, who wouldn’t want to stop another Nazi state arising? Ditto with the comparisons with apartheid South Africa.
So the use of Nazi comparisons is not just people getting overheated or being anti-semitic or even being enthusiastically pro-Palestinian. It is a necessary part of an agenda which has as its logical end point the extermination of the state of Israel. Such language is not necessary (and arguably deeply unhelpful) if your aim is to get Israel to change its policies for the better. But it is absolutely essential if you want Israel to disappear and be replaced by a Palestinian state from Jordan to the sea, which is the explicit aim of, for instance, Hamas.
Corbyn’s view of Israel and the language he uses is, whether he realises it or not, exterminatory in its aims and consequences. If he really believes what he says, then he should be arguing that Israel has no right to exist. It is certainly what some of his supporters believe and what many of his Palestinian associates believe. The threat to Jewry if Britain is led by such a man is the risk that it becomes the first Western country to call for Israel no longer to exist. And then what? What happens to the Jews living there, born there?
The problem now is both May and Hammond are dull details driven ceos but neither charismatic chairmen. Arguably Corbyn is a chairman and McDonnell CEO too
I did ask Shadsy to price up a market on Boris not standing in the next contest, he said no, but he did say if was going to put up such a market, he'd make Boris not standing the favourite.
What was Major polling before Thatcher was deposed ?
But the only side Boris is on is his own. I wouldn’t trust him as far as I could throw him. He’d be just as likely to use the ERG to become leader and then throw them over if he thought it would help him. The nutjobs might want to bear that in mind.
This may be fine, but often people do get anxious about the manufacturing sector declining.
If business taxes are slashed then individuals of working age are going to have to be told to pay more to compensate. A quick trawl through Google suggests that the abolition of Corporation Tax would deprive the Treasury of about £50bn pa in revenue, which is approximately equivalent to a 10% hike in employee NI or all rates of Income Tax. That would be enough to wipe out a substantial chunk of the country's mortgage borrowers and leave us in a worse position than we were c.2008.
Cutting the Corporation Tax rate less drastically and putting taxes up more modestly for ordinary taxpayers might be a better idea, especially if the rise could be dressed up as a present for the NHS or something, but it would still go down like a cup of cold sick. Remember the golden rule of public spending: every voter wants a pony, and every voter expects somebody else to pay for it.
* And also, powerful lobbying services. I get fed up enough with the tax-break-seeking whines of the film and computer game industries in the UK, but the special interest tax lobbying in the USA is on a whole new level. A couple of years ago I read a very interesting article on the sheer scale of the GE tax-lobbying department, and another about bedraggled animation workers getting dragged from state to state as their employers hopped across the country depending on the success of their localised efforts in chasing short-term subsidies/tax-cuts. Soon as each one ran out, or a better offer was wrangled elsewhere, off they'd shoot again, leaving no useful legacy of jobs or skills behind them. Sadly can't remember either of those links but if anyone recalls them and can furnish a link, they were a jolly good read.
And he would be a disaster. Nobody would take him seriously.
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/23996235/red-bull-expects-new-daniel-ricciardo-deal-summer-break
Christian Horner says only a shock Lewis Hamilton retirement would stop Daniel Ricciardo signing a contract extension with Red Bull now….
So in that case , why all the heart searching .
https://twitter.com/classiclib3ral/status/1025320502200606721
Boris carries so much baggage - personal history, political history, and character flaws - that in my judgement he would make Corbyn's task easier, since the "never Corbyn" tendency would be balanced by a lot of "never Boris"s.
Post-referendum he couldn't even sell his own version of Brexit. His big speech was a disaster that's only remembered for jokes about stag dos and sex tourism.
I have nearly as much contempt for Boris as I do towards Mark Reckless.
Relative to Boris every other candidate is going to struggle for name recognition in a survey like this. You could drop in a selection of lower-ranking ministers whom hardly anyone amongst the general public has ever heard of and they would do potentially even worse than any of this lot, but a few good TV performances and a bit of positive coverage and they could soon be doing rather better than 38%. You just don't know.
Whatever side of the EU referendum divide the next leader ultimately comes from, the Tories require one who can provide direction, and convey an impression of competence to the electorate, if they're going to have the best chance of seeing off Corbyn. No amount of entertaining flim-flammery from Boris is going to save his party if he ultimately turns out to be merely a more colourful ditherer than May.
Obviously there are complexities that may require other adjustments too (firms that make profits in the UK but have foreign shareholders, and vice versa; the capacity of human shareholders to avoid taxes too) and I'm neither proposing that the change would be a good one nor that it is especially likely to happen. But it isn't as absurd as it might first sound, nor is it without proponents, nor is it unthinkable under any circumstances (e.g. PT's scenario, or a round of competitive tax cuts that leaves 0% as the next logical place to go).
It's a warm day so I'll join the Boris love-in. I've explained on here why his persona was ideal for London in 2008 - with the GFC in full swing the last thing London needed was a dull pragmatist so we got an upbeat fantasist instead.
Let's be honest - Boris beat Ken Livingstone of all people twice - had someone like the late Dame Tessa Jowell stood against him in 2012 he'd have lost - but let's not underestimate the importance of luck for any politician.
What did he achieve in his time as London Mayor ? The bikes, I suppose - all the Olympic stuff had been started by Ken after the award in 2005 so all Boris had to do was get it finished and bang the drum for London as Olympic host city and that plays to his strengths.
For most ordinary Londoners, he achieved nothing. He was outmanoeuvred by the late Bob Crow who deftly avoided getting into a full-blown confrontation and instead won huge concessions for his members especially over the introduction of a 24-hour tube service as well as Olympic bonuses.
One thing Boris did do was to take more power into his own hands - the Transport and Police Commissioners were done away with and Boris took over direct control of TfL and the Met. He's a centralising authoritarian interested only in his own self-aggrandisement. All he does is say whatever the audience in front of him wants to hear. He maintains popularity despite inconsistency because he is all things to all people.
That might work for the Mayor of London or for a Cabinet post but not for a Prime Minister - in my view, he's as unsuited for the top job as Jeremy Corbyn.
If you were going to do it as a Gov't of national unity, having May and Brown working together probably wouldn't be the worst idea in the world on this.
Boris isn't up to the job.
Haven't missed anything, have I?
https://www.motorsportweek.com/joeblogsf1/id/00289