politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov finds TMay rated about the same as Major, ahead of Blai

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Sandpit said:

Bromptonaut said:

https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1022510738106146816?s=21

Good news, that was the silliest and most unworkable bit of the Chequers proposal.

At least Barnier is talking rather than clock-watching, let’s work out what the deal looks like and get on with it.

Customs union it is.

Why would we want to technically leave the EU only to tie ourselves up in its trade policy?

What I struggle with all this “our own trade policy” flag waving is what would be actually be doing differently to the present EU approach? How great might the divergence actually be in practice?

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

FrankBooth said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?

It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.

I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.

??????

Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?

tpfkar said:

stodge said:

Meanwhile, on the home front, Northamptonshire CC in the brown and smelly once again:

https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/07/northamptonshire-issues-second-section-114-notice?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=

I suspect this won't be the only local authority to need S114 intervention.

May's absurd splurge on the NHS completely misses the point - it's local councils which look after vulnerable children and especially the elderly and vulnerable adults. Where is the money for them or is it all going on the NHS ?

As an aside, public health is now the responsibility of local authorities, not the NHS so where is the funding to improve public health information?

Public Health money should be ring-fenced, and one of the many problems at Northants is that they have had to pay back £8m of public health money that they'd spent elsewhere. Councillors and senior officers both totally asleep and assuming that something would come up. Well it hasn't and every other authority in the country has planned and managed better than they have.

New chief exec starts next week and the Finance Director (151 officer) has already quit after only being in post for 7 months so zero stability at the top as well. Little blame that can be laid at his door, at least he's had the guts to declare (twice) the financial notice which previous postholders should have done. What a mess.

Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

grabcocque said:

May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.

Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).

The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.

It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.

I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


"Europe Elects
‏ @europeelects
52m52 minutes ago

Germany, YouGov subsamples:

Best age group per party by %

CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456

Also from Europe Elects:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

Mortimer said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1022518891799609345

So we can stop pretending the eu can be comvinced and move on to no deal? No point even going the referendum route if no deal is going to even be provisionally agreed.

Why not go for a slowish transition to CETA?

The customs union doesn’t have a majority in Parliament. But leaving it does.

Because that means a customs border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and because it would decimate the economy.

They should be selling tickets to watch Barnier, Junker and Varakdar trying to build a border across Ireland. It’s going to be very amusing to see them try.

People will be too busy queuing for front row seats to watch parliament trying to pass legislation that would necessitate one.

Except that:

1. The legislation required for the UK to leave the EU has already been passed.

2. The UK and the EU have very different ideas of what constitutes a border. We don’t really care what passes North, how efficient the technology is at collecting tarrifs or checking goods for compliance with standards.

A customs border would be a requirement of WTO membership, no? However it's perfectly obvious that the EU likes a degree of protection and I've always found the 'we want control of our borders but not in Ireland' argument strange.

Yes, but as it’s our only land border (and has a lot of bad history) an amount of fudge over the border would in practice be fine with us. It wouldn’t be fine with the EU though, who would want to see a fence and checkpoints.

Fudged borders happen all over the world, most notably the US/Canada border which is mostly open, and the US/Mexico border where there’s currently a political row about building a wall.

Also somewhat different in NI is the Common Travel Agreement between UK and RoI that means there’s no controls needed on people crossing the border, only on goods. When the EU talk about Freedom of Movement, they mean the entitlement to a national insurance number and the right to work and claim benefits and healthcare, as opposed to anything that happens at the physical border.

dr_spyn said:

Wearing a black shirt to discusses antisemitism on Sky News is not a good look, Aaron Bastani ought to know better.

Because it’s only slightly more subtle than a t-shirt with “I hate the Jews. So what?” emblazoned across the front of it?

brendan16 said:

Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.

Acorn_Antiques said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


"Europe Elects
‏ @europeelects
52m52 minutes ago

Germany, YouGov subsamples:

Best age group per party by %

CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456

Also from Europe Elects:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)

Just to add one thing: Linke (and its predecessor the PDS) have always been very strong in the former GDR. If you go back to the elections in the mid-90s, particularly the state elections, it would frequently pick up a quarter to a third of the votes.

The July CBI surveys for manufacturing and retail have been stronger than predicted:

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-output-picks-up-pace-but-investment-disappoints/

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/summer-sun-continues-to-shine-on-retailers-but-outlook-weaker/

If next week's PMI data is also good then an interest rate rise seems likely.

The Tesco Strawberry score has been running at a solid eight for the last four days and the quantity of display also seems to have increased.

another_richard said:

The July CBI surveys for manufacturing and retail have been stronger than predicted:

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-output-picks-up-pace-but-investment-disappoints/

http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/summer-sun-continues-to-shine-on-retailers-but-outlook-weaker/

If next week's PMI data is also good then an interest rate rise seems likely.

If you turn out to be right about interest rates then that would be good news. The sooner they go up, the better.

A very interesting discussion on tarrifs and trade, from Prof Vernon Smith talking to Kate Andrews at the IEA.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=-oW6Ef0ALKo

Acorn_Antiques said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.

Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

FrankBooth said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?

It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.

I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.

??????

Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?

Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

FrankBooth said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?

It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.

I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.

??????

Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?

Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.

She looks nothing like a hobbit.

As far as being 'pretty sexy' goes, I can only say de gustibus non est disputandum.

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.

Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production

Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.

It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills

Wow - thanks for that info. I might actually just go and try to get the third volume of Klemperer's diaries first before I continue with Taylor’s book now.

That was the way the East Germans wished people to see it. It was not the reality. For example Vincenz Muller was a prominent officer in the Wehrmacht where he was a loyal Nazi, and a prominent figure in the DDR until his suicide in 1961 as a convinced communist.

Indeed, it was the revival of denazification proceedings in the West in 1963-65 that spurred the DDR into action, including the very belated arrest of Horst Fischer:

http://www.wollheim-memorial.de/en/nsstrafverfolgung_in_der_ddr_bis_zum_fischerprozess_1965

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.

Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production

Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.

It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.

Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!

Not the good stuff!

ydoethur said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

Interesting. The perception from Klemperer was that, in the late 40s and 50s at least, there was a lot of emphasis in the east on de-nazification, identification and exclusion/punishment of former nazi party members, re-education sessions in schools and colleges, whereas in the West once Nuremberg was out of the way they just wanted to forget and move on, particularly as a lot of the former low level nazis had useful knowledge or skills

Wow - thanks for that info. I might actually just go and try to get the third volume of Klemperer's diaries first before I continue with Taylor’s book now.

That was the way the East Germans wished people to see it. It was not the reality. For example Vincenz Muller was a prominent officer in the Wehrmacht where he was a loyal Nazi, and a prominent figure in the DDR until his suicide in 1961 as a convinced communist.

Indeed, it was the revival of denazification proceedings in the West in 1963-65 that spurred the DDR into action, including the very belated arrest of Horst Fischer:

http://www.wollheim-memorial.de/en/nsstrafverfolgung_in_der_ddr_bis_zum_fischerprozess_1965

Thanks for that info - interesting to read the difference between the number and notoriety of trials in the East vs the West.

Acorn_Antiques said:

brendan16 said:

Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.

We spend about £60bn on tax credits and housing benefit - mostly for working age households - and only about £20bn on social care. Maybe if we spent more money on social care and affordable housing and less on funding the future pensions of buy to let landlords we might get somewhere.

ydoethur said:

John_M said:

ydoethur said:

another_richard said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Playing up the possibility of a disaster is also a high-stakes gamble for the Continuity Remain tendency. If the No Deal Apocalypse comes to pass, and it turns out to manifest as a temporary shortage of lettuces, then what's left of their credibility will evaporate.

Who can forget the global hummus shortage of 2018:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/29/global-hummus-shortage-prices-soar-third/

or the global hummus shortage of 2017:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/29/hummus-crisis-sheds-light-on-secret-world-of-mass-food-production

Once you have tasted proper Israeli or Lebanese hummus, you no longer care whether there is a supply of liquefied cardboard in your local supermarket.

It's all going to depend if replenishment convoys can make it through the Straits of Gibralter.

Almost all the hummus in this country is made in this country!

British chickpeas for British hummus?

Omnium said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

grabcocque said:

May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.

Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).

The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.

It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.

I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.

She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

The_Apocalypse said:

IanB2 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

Theuniondivvie said:

AndyJS said:

AfD on 23% with the 25-44 age group according to YouGov:


"Europe Elects
‏ @europeelects
52m52 minutes ago

Germany, YouGov subsamples:

Best age group per party by %

CDU/CSU-EPP: 65+ • 39%
SPD-S&D: 65+ • 24%
AfD-EFDD: 25-44 • 23%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 18-24 • 24%
LINKE-LEFT: 45-64 • 14%
FDP-ALDE: 18-24 • 14%"

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1020264352761491456

Also from Europe Elects:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1022424547025477633

Most of this lot only left the Eastern bloc in 1989, lest we forget. Four in ten now back far Right or ex-Communists (and the Centre-Left appears perilously close to being Pasokified to boot.)

The centre left have been in coalition with the CDU now for several years, so it doesn’t surprise me that they are not doing so well. People who aren’t voting CDU are going to want some kind of alternative to them, and if you’re in government with them it’s hard to be that.

Re East Germany, because they were under communism while the West was reflecting on its Nazi past, maybe that’s why they can vote Afd so easily - they didn’t go through that process of reflection.

:

I was going on what I’ve read so far of this book: ‘EXORCISING HITLER The Occupation and Denazification of Germany’ by Frederick Taylor.

This bit specifically: ‘Perhaps it was worse, because there was no 1960s, no younger generation asking awkward, often unfair questions of their elders, as there was in West Germany. East Germany claimed to have solved the national problem through communism, but in fact, after 1989, the bacillus of Nazism was found to have survived in far more virulent forms in the so-called ‘German Democratic Republic’ than in its capitalist-democratic competitor state.’ (p. xxxv)

I’ve only started reading it this week.

Edit: But I’ll make sure to read the third volume of Klemperer's diaries as well.

"We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone!"
- Bruno Ganz in the Liam Neeson movie "Unknown", 2011

East Germany in general sold the line that all the Nazis were in West Germany, running it from behind the scenes... The East Bloc states (Russia included) in general went for the line that "since we are Communist, we aren't racist, sexist etc."

Yet, strangely....

https://twitter.com/mikedelmoro/status/1022575939367133184?s=21

kle4 said:

She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

She doedn't care about unserifed.

Serifed mean Serifed!

It's the will of the people...

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Omnium said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

grabcocque said:

May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.

Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).

The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.

It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.

I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.

She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

Comic sans would be appropriate.

Still can't believe that the presentation where they announced the discovery of the Higgs Boson with the LHC was in Comic sans.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Omnium said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

grabcocque said:

May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.

Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).

The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.

It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.

I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.

She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

Comic sans would be appropriate.

Still can't believe that the presentation where they announced the discovery of the Higgs Boson with the LHC was in Comic sans.

I once received a CV in Comic Sans.

Acorn_Antiques said:

brendan16 said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

brendan16 said:

Public Health money goes on tackling obesity, sexual health etc.

It does not fund general social care - or children's services or support for adults below pensioner age with physical and learning disabilities. It is actually in those two areas where the biggest pressures are for councils as those clients or their parents don't have assets generally to fund their care so 100 per cent of the cost is borne by the council.

I seem to recall one of the London councils (I think it was either Brent or Barnet) warning a couple of years back that, if things didn't change radically, it would only be 10 or 15 years before all of its budget went on social care. There'd simply be nothing left for emptying the bins, running libraries and leisure centres, or anything else.

But ultimately it's all part of the wider problem: the electorate doesn't want to choose between having a narrower range of services or paying a lot more tax. Everybody wants a pony, and everybody expects other people to pay for it: hence politicians always implement some fudged combination of half-measure cuts, stealth taxes and more borrowing. That's why our Governments all fail, and will continue to fail, until one is finally forced to grasp the nettle and choose between a Scandinavian and an American model.

That administration will be utterly destroyed at the ballot box, but the one that comes immediately after it will probably do very well.

We spend about £60bn on tax credits and housing benefit - mostly for working age households - and only about £20bn on social care. Maybe if we spent more money on social care and affordable housing and less on funding the future pensions of buy to let landlords we might get somewhere.

Fixing our chronic housing problem is an essential task - if only our leaders would make a serious attempt at it - but it will take a long time and be hugely expensive in and of itself.

The fundamental issue remains, therefore, unresolved. The current economic model isn't working, but nobody seems to have the will to fix it. In this case, both politicians and the electorate are complicit.

The problem is a religious belief that Human Are Evul, All their Works Are Evul and the only Good Thing is less facilities for humans.

Strangely the strongest holders of these beliefs also believe that Unlimited Immigration Is An Unlimited Good Thing.

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mikedelmoro/status/1022575939367133184?s=21

Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.

Never believe anything until it's been officially denied...

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mikedelmoro/status/1022575939367133184?s=21

Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.

Just saw that ad on TV - on Film4 during Rogue Nation.

kle4 said:

Omnium said:

Stereotomy said:

AndyJS said:

rottenborough said:

AndyJS said:

grabcocque said:

May’s proposal to reintroduce fox hunting with a free vote was the single most viral topic of the 2017 election.

It's the moment everything started to go horribly wrong.

I thought it was the dementia tax proposal.

Double whammy. Foxhunting killed any lingering chances of the youth voting Tory (they like animals) and the dementia tax killed the middle aged from voting tory (we want/need granny's house thanks).

The main lesson for politicians is not to be honest during an election campaign in future. May was honest on everything and did badly.

It wasn't honesty that drove May. The manifesto was a blank cheque she wrote herself.

I hope May eventually publishes her memoirs.

She wouldn't get past choosing the font. How to appeal to those who like serifed fonts and those who prefer unserifed?

She'd pull a contorted face and say something like 'I like all kinds of fonts. I use fonts all the time. I will use a font when I sign the order to bomb so-called ISIS positions in Syria. Enjoy the summer holidays.'

SandyRentool said:

Jonathan said:

Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.

Looking down on all of the illegally built 'sheds with beds' in Hounslow?

SandyRentool said:

Jonathan said:

Normally avoid Heathrow, but on the right day, in the right seat, that final approach is spectacular.

Looking down on all of the illegally built 'sheds with beds' in Hounslow?

Not quite.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mikedelmoro/status/1022575939367133184?s=21

Most of those companies are doing just fine now, I assume Facebook will as well.

It was a little odd at the cinema the other day seeing a Facebook ad seemingly about not harvesting or misusing customer data (it's a bit of a blur to me now) as I thought harvesting personal info to be of use to advertisers was their whole deal.

Just saw that ad on TV - on Film4 during Rogue Nation.

Facebook has been running this ad (or something very like it, anyway) on TV for some weeks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4zd7X98eOs

Although, frankly, why one should feel moral outrage about violations of privacy against people who choose to broadcast the minutiae of their personal lives on a website (and one which makes its money by using their own data to feed them targeted adverts to boot) is beyond me.

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

Is it news?

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mikedelmoro/status/1022575939367133184?s=21

Are these in 2018 dollars? Adjusting for inflation, Microsoft's is bigger.

As is Intel's.

Philip_Thompson said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

Possibly because it has already been taken as a given that the EU would reject whatever Theresa May's plans were regardless?

I doubt that the timing of the Parliamentary recess entered Monsieur Barnier's mind, frankly.

Not sure. It was noticeable how quiet Barnier et al were after Davis resigned. A choice word from them there could have been enough to see the tipping point reached. So they have waited for the storm to pass.

Barnier et al know May is weak and will given them what they want. They don't want her gone.

May has no power to give them what they want, she wasn't bluffing (indeed, she couldn't even maintain her own proposal for a week), so if that is their gamble they will be disappointed.

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

ydoethur said:

FrankBooth said:

NickPalmer said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Oh hello, this looks quite an interesting bit of polling:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1022518184807735296

It's good expectation management, you must admit. If we pull out with no deal but we don't run out of Camembert, the Government will say it's better than expected...

Over-rated in my view. What's wrong with Brie?

It's not as good as the Shire, it's got Big People living in it.

I think the one called Alison is pretty sexy.

??????

Has SeanT hacked your account after imbibing something even stronger than usual?

Alison Brie. Look her up, thank me later.

"Annie's pretty young, we try not to sexualise her"

Barnesian said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.

In the Withdrawal Agreement, it's going to be EEA+CU (but using different terminology).

When it comes to the meaningful vote, it will be something like 250 for, 75 against, 300 abstentions.

I don't have a problem generally with an abstention, but on such a significant issue so many would be such a piss take.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.

It was the coup de grâce.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.

It was the coup de grâce.

In which case it was already dying, and it actually hardly mattered that the ERG did anything.

Acorn_Antiques said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1022580342715305985?s=21

Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.

Don't drink Cat milk.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.

It was the coup de grâce.

In which case it was already dying, and it actually hardly mattered that the ERG did anything.

It did matter it showed many, including the EU, that Mrs May isn't serious and a hostage of the ERG.

She is, but a mercy blow indicates mercy was required, eg the subject was already terminal, therefore it already had no chance.

As for showing the EU she was not serious, I don't see how that is true. It was widely reported the EU would not be able to accept Chequers as was anyway, so they would insist in further bending, and she was stating she could not do so. In that she was correct, as bending even as far as Chequers was too much.

But since the EU wasn't going to accept Chequers anyway, then as stupid as declaring a final position then backsliding because of the ERG was, I fail to see what impact it actually had on the negotiations. The EU were going to demand more, May was never going to be able to offer them more, so that she backslid to the ERG didn't affect its chances.

kle4 said:

Barnesian said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Considering this site doesn't normally quit talking about Brexit I'm surprised more isn't made of Barnier rejecting Chequers on customs.

Considering that customs and thus Ireland has been the major divide recently an out and out rejection of Chequers as he's done today seems to be significant.

Though I note he has waited until the summer recess before doing that. He is a sly fox.

It was dead the moment Mrs May surrendered to the ERG and accepted their amendments.

People were already saying it was dead before then, don't give too much credit to the ERG.

In the Withdrawal Agreement, it's going to be EEA+CU (but using different terminology).

When it comes to the meaningful vote, it will be something like 250 for, 75 against, 300 abstentions.

I don't have a problem generally with an abstention, but on such a significant issue so many would be such a piss take.

Labour, SNP and LD will feel unable to vote for it (for different reasons) but will not want to force a no deal with uncontrollable consequences by voting against it.

It's conceivable that the Labour strategy will be to vote against it in the hope of exploiting the chaos and getting a general election. But I doubt that they would get a majority in those circumstances.

Abstentions wouldn't be a piss take but the result of careful deliberations and calculations.

I think the Withdrawal Agreement will pass and we will easily complete the negotiation on EEA/CU on time by end 2021.

Jonathan said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1022580342715305985?s=21

Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.

Don't drink Cat milk.

Oh come on, be serious! I'm not going to milk the things, now am I?

I was thinking more along the lines of a casserole.

Acorn_Antiques said:

Jonathan said:

Acorn_Antiques said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1022580342715305985?s=21

Not a matter of concern. Even if there's no deal AND the apocalyptic scare stories actually turn out to have some validity this time around, we're not about to starve to death. Besides anything else a lot of the neighbours own cats and I'm sure I can fashion some sort of rudimentary net with which to capture them.

Although if it does look like no deal then I may also dust off my Emergency Corbyn Government Readiness List and buy some of the essentials. There's not that much room for hoarding in Chez Overall, but I think I can find space for three dozen luxury loo rolls, a couple of cases of Rioja, some basic medicines and, say, about 10kg of good quality chocolate. Sorted.

Don't drink Cat milk.

Oh come on, be serious! I'm not going to milk the things, now am I?

I was thinking more along the lines of a casserole.

Served with some nice homemade cats milk cheese?

o/t anyone else think this is the best political tv theme tune ever?

https://youtu.be/95qLDc7zwYY

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1022600551048069121

kjohnw said:

o/t anyone else think this is the best political tv theme tune ever?

youtu.be/95qLDc7zwYY

The old BBC election intro theme was also good.